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DOE OSTI2023

Effective removal of trace-level toxic metals from flue gas desulfurization wastewater using SiO 2 supported hydrogel sorbent

Flue gas desulfurization (FGD) wastewater generated from coal-fired power plants contain potentially harmful heavy metal pollutants that pose a threat to public health and clean water. In this work, we present a water stable polyethylenimine-n,n’-methylenebisacrylamide (PEI-MBAA) functionalized SiO 2 solid sorbent material (PMS-1.2/1/4) and investigate its metal adsorption kinetics, selectivity, regenerability, and space velocity. The kinetic studies of six of the toxic heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Pb, Se, and Hg) prepared with single elements in Milli-Q water showed the effect of chemical bonding and intraparticle mass transfer resistance on the sorption process. The selectivity studies demonstrated the significant adsorption efficiency toward trace-level heavy metals (Se, Cd, U, Al, etc.) from authentic industrial FGD wastewater. Through five consecutive adsorption–desorption cycles with the FGD (uptake)-citrate (release)-based buffer pair, the sorbent showed high heavy metal removal ability and good reusability. The maximum flow rate for the removal of Se from industrial FGD wastewater was determined to be as high as 8 bed volumes/minute of the sorbent bed. Finally, the results demonstrate the PMS-1.2/1.4 sorbent is a promising candidate for the removal of heavy metals from practical aqueous solutions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive Study of the Potential of Extracting and Processing Critical Minerals from Coal-Based Resources - Phase I

The Phase I report prepared for the Department of Energy addresses U.S. Executive Order 13817 titled A Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals, issued on December 20, 2017, that lists 35 critical minerals that are vulnerable to supply disruption. A comprehensive review of each of the minerals was conducted to determine the criticality based primarily on extractability from coal-based resources. Several other factors were also considered such as gaps in supply and demand, use in current technology, and the existence of viable substitutes. It was determined that the critical minerals that show highest potential for extraction from coal-based resources are lithium, rare earth elements (REEs), cobalt, and manganese. All four of the critical minerals listed serve an important role in the technology industry, have few substitutes, and have a heavy import reliance. Most notably are lithium, which is widely used in the electric vehicle industry, and the REEs which can be found in virtually all electronic devices. The research of critical mineral extraction from coal-based resources was completed using a combination of literature review from public sources as well as cooperation from coal mines and power plants across the United States. Samples collected from six different geographical locations across the U.S. were subjected to sample preparation (i.e., pH measurement, moisture content, particle size analysis) and characterization studies using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectroscopy (ICP-MS) and Scanning Electron Microscopy, Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (SEM-EDX) instruments. 27 samples of coal waste materials such as refuse, sludge, and fly ash were tested to characterize the rare earth element concentration by total rare earth elements (TREEs), heavy rare earth elements (HREEs), and light rare earth elements (LREEs). Of the 27 samples tested, 22 contained a TREE concentration higher than the threshold of 300 ppm, which is considered a viable feedstock material. 3 samples contained less than 300 ppm of TREEs; however, they were within 20 ppm of the threshold, and could potentially be considered viable sources in the future pending the advancement of more efficient extraction technologies. 2 of the 27 samples had significantly low TREE concentrations, which does not imply any potential for being a source for REEs. For the minerals identified as most critical in the literature review, a conceptual process flow diagram (PFD) was developed for their extraction from different coal-based feedstocks. The process targets selective recovery of one commodity (i.e., rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and manganese) via several hydrometallurgical separation methods. By identifying potentially extractable coal-based critical mineral resources, a study of the current and future market environments for each critical mineral, and a review of current processing methodologies for critical mineral extraction from coal-based resources, the foundation has been laid to further characterize and explore new resources and extraction techniques. As reliance on technologies in industries such as the production of electronic devices, batteries, and alloys containing critical minerals utilizing critical minerals continues to increase, a sound understanding of our nation’s dependence on and even the global criticality of certain critical minerals, will serve as a catalyst for innovation in virtually all fields of science.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Pore Closure in the Hot Isostatic Pressing of Additively Manufactured Inconel 718 Samples

Additive manufacturing provides opportunity for a new world of possibilities for metallic component design and fabrication; however, as-built part quality is notoriously variable, anisotropic, and degraded by porous defects. To improve quality, parts are commonly post processed using a variety of techniques including hot isostatic pressing (HIP). During HIP, high temperature and pressure is employed to improve microstructure and reduce pore volume by inducing visco-plastic deformation in the metallic substrate. Validated computational capabilities can provide predictions to guide the selection of processing condition, expected pore reduction, and the effects of varying entrapped gas in the pores. This discussion describes a micro-scale finite element structural model developed to predict pore closure due to HIP in as-built additively manufactured Inconel 718 samples produced by the laser powder bed fusion process. The model accounts for plastic deformation, creep, and internal pressure for a single pore. Pores are characterized in physical samples before and after HIP, and model predictions are compared to this measured data.

defect model prediction↗

DOE OSTI2020

Facilitated Transport Membranes with Tunable Amine-CO 2 Chemistry for CO 2 /H 2 Separation

CO 2 -selective, amine-containing facilitated transport membranes are of great interest for syngas purification since high-pressure H 2 can be retained upon CO 2 removal. A variety of amine-containing polymers have shown decent chemical and thermal stability at aggressive conditions, but their CO 2 /H 2 separation properties are largely limited by the hydrostatic compaction and severe carrier saturation associated with the high syngas pressure. Herein, we report a new approach to enhance the CO 2 permeability by manipulating the steric hindrance of the amine carriers. A series of α-aminoacids with different alkyl or hydroxyethyl substituents are deprotonated by 2-(1-piperazinyl)ethylamine, leading to nonvolatile amine carriers with different degrees of steric hindrance. For hosting the low MW amine carriers, a highly crosslinked poly(vinyl acetal) is synthesized as a water-swellable polymer network. In order to avoid membrane compaction, perforated graphene oxide mono-sheets are dispersed as reinforcement fillers. In the presence of moisture, a bulkier alkyl substituent to the amino site (increasing steric hindrance) destabilizes the carbamate adduct and thus drastically increases the chemisorption of CO 2 , while the incorporation of ethylene oxide groups provides additional physisorption of CO 2 . The enhanced CO 2 solubility significantly mitigates the carrier saturation behavior, and an unprecedented CO 2 /H 2 selectivity greater than 100 is demonstrated at 107 °C and 12.5 atm of CO 2 partial pressure. As the CO 2 partial pressure reduces to 0.4 atm, a less hindered amine yields a higher reactive diffusivity of CO 2 , resulting in a CO 2 permeance of 435 GPU with a selectivity greater than 500. These reaction-mediated polymeric membranes are well above the theoretical upper bound, and they are of great interest for designing a highly-selective membrane process for syngas purification.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Molten Salt vs. Liquid Sodium Receiver Selection Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

An international team led by NREL analyzed the favorability of two alternative liquid receiver designs for a 700+ degrees C receiver under the Gen3 CSP Liquid Pathway project. The competing liquid heat transfer fluids were a ternary chloride salt and liquid-metal sodium. The team applied a facilitated analytic hierarchy process to arrive at a recommended alternative and set a path forward for the project. The AHP criteria were formulated, weighted, and scored by the project leadership team and technical advisory committee consisting of energy industry and CSP experts. The six-month process culminated with a two-day workshop where the sodium alternative was deemed to have both a significantly higher benefit (19.3%) and a lower LCOE (11.4%), with only a slightly higher risk (~3%) than the salt alternative. Consequently, a sodium-receiver design was selected for the Liquid Pathway project, where it will be used to charge a two-tank chloride salt thermal energy storage system.

central receiver↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-Temperature Fe-Based Fischer–Tropsch Synthesis: Experimentally Validated Kinetic Models Implemented at Pellet and Reactor Scales

Pellet- and reactor-scale models for Fischer–Tropsch synthesis (FTS) with a Fe–K/silica catalyst were developed to investigate the sensitivity of the hydrocarbon products and carbon dioxide selectivity to process conditions and feed composition at high temperature (350–400 °C), moderate pressure (1–10 bar), and a range of H 2 /CO ratios (3–1). The major objective of this paper is to develop, validate, and evaluate a high-temperature FTS model that is then used to assess the feasibility of process integration with syngas production. Since there is limited kinetic data available, in literature at these conditions, bench-scale reactor tests were conducted to obtain operational data for parameter fitting of kinetic expressions used in the model. This resulting kinetic model demonstrated agreement with the experimental data with an R 2 of 0.97 to the testing data set and, thus, was feasible to apply at pellet and reactor scales. Here, multiple pellet sizes were modeled to detail the role of transport limitations as the sphere’s diameter approached and exceeded 1 mm. Application of the reactor model indicated that hydrocarbon selectivity depended strongly on temperature, whereas the ratio of olefin to paraffin products decreased with increasing temperature, pressure, and H 2 /CO ratio. Product selectivity was not sensitive to the conversion of carbon monoxide. Furthermore, the roles of the pressure and H 2 /CO ratio were closely coupled. At a H 2 /CO ratio of 3, only slight variations in selectivity occurred over a pressure range of 1–20 bar, whereas at a ratio of 1, selectivity could vary by as much as 30% over the same pressure range. At pressures below 5 bar and temperatures above 350 °C, minimal selectivity to heavy hydrocarbons (C 12+ ) is obtained, and selectivity to midrange products (C 5–11 ) rapidly declined as pressure dropped below 5 bar, which indicated that an operational pressure of at least 5 bar is needed to achieve reasonable yields in this temperature range. These results, while tentative, provide guidelines for further experimentation and evaluation of integrated FTS processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

GridSweep Processing and Graphing Software v1.0

This software is used to process the raw data from the GridSweep instrument, a device developed under subcontract by McEachern Laboroatories for a DOE GMLC project. The software scrubbs, demodulates, and transforms point on wave voltage timeseries data into frequency/voltage amplitude/time data. It also has a GUI that allows for user selection of processed experimental data and graphing in heatmaps or 3-D plots. It was created alongside the GridSweep instrument as a part of the same project and is required to be open-source.

McEachern, Alex↗

DOE OSTI2026

Wasserstein normalized autoencoder for anomaly detection

A novel anomaly detection algorithm is presented. The Wasserstein normalized autoencoder (WNAE) is a normalized probabilistic model that minimizes the Wasserstein distance between the learned probability distribution—a Boltzmann distribution where the energy is the reconstruction error of the autoencoder (AE)—and the distribution of the training data. This algorithm has been developed and applied to the identification of semivisible jets—conical sprays of visible standard model (SM) particles and invisible dark matter states—with the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. Trained on jets of particles from simulated SM processes, the WNAE is shown to learn the probability distribution of the input data in a fully unsupervised fashion, such that it effectively identifies new physics jets as anomalies. The model exhibits stable, convergent training and recovers strong classification performance for a wide range of signals against the selected background process, for which a standard AE fails because of outlier reconstruction. In addition, the model improves upon standard normalized autoencoders while remaining fully agnostic to the signal. The WNAE directly tackles the problem of outlier reconstruction, a common failure mode of autoencoders in anomaly detection tasks.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗

NASA NTRS1996

Solar Electric Propulsion

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's New Millennium Program (NMP) is a space flight technology demonstration program that will validate the technologies needed to carry out the Earth and space science missions NASA envisions for the 21(sup st) century. The program is employing an innovative decision-making process to select the specific technologies that will be flight validated. First, NMP has articulated NASA's vision of science exploration for the next century, then it has defined the capabilities needed to execute that vision, and finally it will select and demonstrate the revolutionary technologies that provide those capabilities, thus enabling the science vision.

New Millennium New Millennium Program NMP space fl↗

NASA NTRS2011

Potential Alternatives Report for Validation of Alternatives to Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes

Identifying and selecting alternative materials and technologies that have the potential to reduce the identified HazMats and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), while incorporating sound corrosion prevention and control technologies, is a complicated task due to the fast pace at which new technologies emerge and rules change. The alternatives are identified through literature searches, electronic database and Internet searches, surveys, and/or personal and professional contacts. Available test data was then compiled on the proposed alternatives to determine if the materials meet the test objectives or if further)laboratory or field-testing will be required. After reviewing technical information documented in the PAR, government representatives, technical representatives from the affected facilities, and other stakeholders involved in the process will select the list of viable alternative coatings for consideration and testing under the project's Joint Test Protocol entitled Joint Test Protocol for Validation of Alternatives to Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes and Field Test Plan entitled Field Evaluations Test Plan for Validation of Alternatives to Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes, both prepared by ITB. Test results will be reported in a Joint Test Report upon completion oftesting. The selection rationale and conclusions are documented in this PAR. A cost benefit analysis will be prepared to quantify the estimated capital and process costs of coating alternatives and cost savings relative to the current coating processes, however, some initial cost data has been included in this PAR. For this coatings project, isocyanates, as found in aliphatic isocyanate polyurethanes, were identified as the target HazMat to be eliminated. Table 1-1 lists the target HazMats, the related process and application, current specifications, and affected programs.

Lewis, pattie↗

NASA NTRS1978

Feasibility of commercial space manufacturing, production of pharmaceuticals. Volume 2: Technical analysis

A technical analysis on the feasibility of commercial manufacturing of pharmaceuticals in space is presented. The method of obtaining pharmaceutical company involvement, laboratory results of the separation of serum proteins by the continuous flow electrophoresis process, the selection and study of candidate products, and their production requirements is described. The candidate products are antihemophilic factor, beta cells, erythropoietin, epidermal growth factor, alpha-1-antitrypsin and interferon. Production mass balances for antihemophelic factor, beta cells, and erythropoietin were compared for space versus ground operation. A conceptual description of a multiproduct processing system for space operation is discussed. Production requirements for epidermal growth factor of alpha-1-antitrypsin and interferon are presented.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SERFE Water Quality Results

NASA has been developing a new spacesuit, called the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) for over a decade. This spacesuit is underdevelopment to support missions to the International Space Station (ISS) and also to the Moon. Improvements in the life and robustness of the Portable Life Support System (PLSS) has been a major objective of these efforts. Water quality, and how that impacts the performance of the life support system hardware, are areas where improvements could greatly help to achieve these goals. The Suit Water Membrane Evaporator (SWME) was chosen as the technology to provide cooling to the xEMU and has undergone several iterations of development over this period. An ISS flight experiment centered around the SWME and other thermal loop technologies was developed and has been under test in an ISS EXpedite PRocessing of Experiments to the Space Station (EXPRESS) rack since November of 2020. In addition to the SWME, The SWME EXPRESS Rack Flight Experiment (SERFE) contains several technology demonstrations from the xEMU project and has been demonstrating their performance in micro-gravity and over an extended duration. This paper will summarize the results of the water quality analysis performed to date throughout the SERFE testing program. Special care was taken to select materials, process hardware, and control the quality of the feedwater used in SERFE testing so that it would be representative of a thermal control system that could be used on a spacesuit for a lunar mission. In addition, the testing schedule, including periods of quiescence in between tests, was also selected to simulate a real mission profile in ways that would be critical to water quality. Results include data and analysis on microbial activity, biocidal iodine, metals, organic carbon, and several other customary indicators of water quality in an operational system. Testing spans over a year and a half of wetted life of the SERFE Flight Unit and the SERFE Ground Unit.

Colin Campbell↗

DOE OSTI2023

Genome expansion by a CRISPR trimmer-integrase

CRISPR–Cas adaptive immune systems capture DNA fragments from invading mobile genetic elements and integrate them into the host genome to provide a template for RNA-guided immunity. CRISPR systems maintain genome integrity and avoid autoimmunity by distinguishing between self and non-self, a process for which the CRISPR/Cas1–Cas2 integrase is necessary but not sufficient. In some microorganisms, the Cas4 endonuclease assists CRISPR adaptation, but many CRISPR–Cas systems lack Cas4. Here we show here that an elegant alternative pathway in a type I-E system uses an internal DnaQ-like exonuclease (DEDDh) to select and process DNA for integration using the protospacer adjacent motif (PAM). The natural Cas1–Cas2/exonuclease fusion (trimmer-integrase) catalyses coordinated DNA capture, trimming and integration. Five cryo-electron microscopy structures of the CRISPR trimmer-integrase, visualized both before and during DNA integration, show how asymmetric processing generates size-defined, PAM-containing substrates. Before genome integration, the PAM sequence is released by Cas1 and cleaved by the exonuclease, marking inserted DNA as self and preventing aberrant CRISPR targeting of the host. Together, these data support a model in which CRISPR systems lacking Cas4 use fused or recruited exonucleases for faithful acquisition of new CRISPR immune sequences.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Influence of Free Space Environment in the Mission Life Cycle: Material Selection

The natural space environment has a great influence on the ability of space systems to perform according to mission design specification. Understanding the natural space environment and its influence on space system performance is critical to the concept formulation, design, development, and operation of space systems. Compatibility with the natural space environment is a primary factor in determining the functional lifetime of the space system. Space systems being designed and developed today are growing in complexity. In many instances, the increased complexity also increases its sensitivity to space environmental effects. Sensitivities to the natural space environment can be tempered through appropriate design measures, material selection, ground processing, mitigation strategies, and/or the acceptance of known risks. The design engineer must understand the effects of the natural space environment on the space system and its components. This paper will discuss the influence of the natural space environment in the mission life cycle with a specific focus on the role of material selection.

Edwards, David L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grid-Integrated Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels from Nuclear Power

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) investigates the relative economic profitability of an integrated energy system (IES) coupling an NPP with a synfuel production process at selected case study locations across the United States. In the synfuel IES, a high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) plant is thermally and electrically coupled with an NPP to produce zero-carbon hydrogen. The synthetic fuel is produced from this H 2 combined with a CO 2 supply using the reverse water gas shift process followed by the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) reaction. This analysis considers a system in which the CO 2 is sourced from regional CO 2 emitters via the construction and operation of pipeline-based CO 2 supply networks. Locating the FT plant at the same site as the NPP and HTSE plants enables the NPP to provide zero-carbon heat and power to the HTSE plant and zero-carbon power to the FT plant as well as avoid the requirement for long-distance H 2 product transport from the HTSE plant to the FT plant. Hydrogen storage is used to enable the NPP to dispatch power to the electrical grid (instead of the HTSE plant) when grid demand increases, thus enabling the FT plant to continue to operate in a steady-state production mode. The ability to cease hydrogen production for several hours within each day enables the NPP to provide power to the grid to balance the electricity market during peak periods and maximize revenues for the nuclear synfuel IES. The FT process design considered has a 99% carbon conversion efficiency. The use of nuclear energy and nuclear energy-derived hydrogen enables synfuel production to achieve this high level of carbon utilization. Additionally, the life-cycle carbon emissions of the nuclear-based synfuel production process are very low, with WTW emissions of approximately 25 gCO 2 e/MJ, including steam credits (generated from FT process excess heat), and approximately 7 gCO 2 e/MJ, if steam credits are excluded. This compares favorably with the WTW emissions of 90.5 gCO 2 e/MJ for a compression-ignition, direct injection (CIDI) vehicle with a fuel economy of 31.6 miles per gallon gasoline equivalent (MPGGE), using low-sulfur diesel produced using conventional petroleum production and refining processes. Several NPPs in various regions of the U.S. are considered as case study analyses. Supply locations and transportation via pipeline of the CO 2 feedstock to the NPP site are analyzed through the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) CO 2 Transport Cost model. The team finds that the amount of CO 2 generated by different sectors is sufficient for the synfuel production process at all locations considered. The CO 2 transportation costs are functions of the distance of the source to the NPP location, the CO 2 capture cost at the source, and the quantity of CO 2 transported. Historical electricity prices for the NPP case study locations are collected and analyzed. Monthly average prices, price range, and duration of negative-price periods vary among these locations. For each location, an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model is trained on historical electricity price data. ARMA validation is done to ensure the synthetic price distributions represent one of historical prices with high fidelity. Synthetic time series from these ARMA models are used in a coupled dispatch and system optimization in the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) to compute the differential net present value (NPV) of the IES. The team finds that this econometric is positive, ranging from $14M–1.3bn (2020) depending on the location. The optimal synfuel IES configuration to obtain this increase in NPV often maximizes the size of the synfuel production process with regards to the size of the NPP. However, the team shows that the NPP still plays a stabilizing role for the grid: In periods of high prices and high loads, more electricity from the NPP is sent to the grid. A high variability of electricity prices and extreme maximum prices tend to drive up electricity production. While it requires significant investment, the synfuel IES could increase the economic profitability for the existing fleet of LWRs across the country while still maintaining the grid stabilizer role of NPPs. During its lifetime, the main costs for the nuclear synfuel IES are the carbon feedstock transportation costs, followed by the capital expenses (CAPEX) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs while the revenue comes first from the IRA H 2 production tax credit (PTC) and then from the sales of synfuel products. The profitability of the synfuel IES is most sensitive to the value of the hydrogen PTC and the synfuel products as well as the cost of the carbon feedstock, highlighting the importance of governmental incentives regarding hydrogen, carbon emissions, and synfuel in driving the deployment of future nuclear synfuel IESs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2010

Implementation and Qualifications Lessons Learned for Space Flight Photonic Components

This slide presentation reviews the process for implementation and qualification of space flight photonic components. It discusses the causes for most common anomalies for the space flight components, design compatibility, a specific failure analysis of optical fiber that occurred in a cable in 1999-2000, and another ExPCA connector anomaly involving pins that broke off. It reviews issues around material selection, quality processes and documentation, and current projects that the Photonics group is involved in. The importance of good documentation is stressed.

Ott, Melanie N.↗

DOE OSTI2023

The selective heating effect of microwave irradiation on a binary mixture of water and polyethylene oxide: a molecular dynamics simulation approach

In this study, we investigate the molecular mechanisms of a microwave-driven selective heating process by performing molecular dynamics simulations for three different systems including pure water, pure polyethylene oxide (PEO), and water-PEO mixed systems in the presence of a microwave with two different intensities of electric field such as 0.001 V/Å -1 and 0.01 V/Å -1 at a frequency of 100 GHz. First, from performing molecular dynamics simulations of CO and CO 2 in the presence of the microwave, it is confirmed that the molecular dipole moment is responsible for the rotational motion induced by the oscillating electric field. Second, by analyzing the MD simulations of the pure water system, we discover that the dipole moment of water exhibits a time lag with respect to the microwave. During the heating process, however, the temperature, kinetic, and potential energies increase synchronously with the oscillating electric field of the microwave, showing that the heating of the water system is caused by the molecular reaction of water to the microwave. Comparing the water-PEO mixed system to the pure water and pure PEO systems, the water-PEO mixed system has a higher heating rate than the pure PEO system but a lower heating rate than the pure water system. Therefore, we conclude that heating the water-PEO mixed system is driven by water molecules selectively activated by microwave irradiation. Furthermore, we also calculate the diffusion coefficients of water molecules and PEO chains by describing their mean square displacements, demonstrating that the diffusion coefficients are increased in the presence of microwaves for both water and PEO in pure and mixed systems. Lastly, during the microwave heating process, the structures of the water-PEO mixed system are altered as a function of the intensity of electric field, which is mainly driven by the response of water molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗