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NASA NTRS1990

The Wolf-Rayet star population in the most massive giant H II regions of M33

Narrow-band images of NGC 604, NGC 595, and NGC 592, the most massive giant H II regions (GHRs) in M33 have been obtained, in order to study their Wolf-Rayet content. These images reveal the presence of nine candidates in NGC 604 (seven WN, two WC), 10 in NGC 595 (nine WN, one WC), and two in NGC 592 (two WN). Precise positions and estimated magnitudes are given for the candidates, half of which have so far been confirmed spectroscopically as genuine W-R stars. The flux in the emission lines of all candidates is comparable to that of normal Galactic W-R stars of similar subtype. A few of the putative superluminous W-R stars are shown to be close visual double or multiple stars; their newly estimated luminosities are now more compatible with those of normal W-R stars. NGC 595 seems to be overabundant in W-R stars for its mass compared to other GHRs, while NGC 604 is normal. Factors influencing the W-R/O number ratio in GHRs are discussed: metallicity and age appear to be the most important.

Drissen, Laurent↗
NASA NTRS2006

Beyond Population and Environment: Household Life Cycle Demography and Land Use Allocation among Small Farm Colonists in the Amazon

Most research featuring demographic factors in environmental change has focused on processes operating at the level of national or global populations. This paper focuses on household-level demographic life cycles among colonists in the Amazon, and evaluates the impacts on land use allocation. The analysis goes beyond prior research by including a broader suite of demographic variables, and by simultaneously assessing their impacts on multiple land uses with different economic and ecological implications. We estimate a system of structural equations that accounts for endogeneity among land uses, and the findings indicate stronger demographic effects than previous work. These findings bear implications for modeling land use, and the place of demography in environmental research.

Perz, Stephen G.↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA Models of Space Radiation Induced Cancer, Circulatory Disease, and Central Nervous System Effects

The risks of late effects from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are potentially a limitation to long-term space travel. The late effects of highest concern have significant lethality including cancer, effects to the central nervous system (CNS), and circulatory diseases (CD). For cancer and CD the use of age and gender specific models with uncertainty assessments based on human epidemiology data for low LET radiation combined with relative biological effectiveness factors (RBEs) and dose- and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors (DDREF) to extrapolate these results to space radiation exposures is considered the current "state-of-the-art". The revised NASA Space Risk Model (NSRM-2014) is based on recent radio-epidemiology data for cancer and CD, however a key feature of the NSRM-2014 is the formulation of particle fluence and track structure based radiation quality factors for solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates, which are distinct from the ICRP quality factors, and shown to lead to smaller uncertainties in risk estimates. Many persons exposed to radiation on earth as well as astronauts are life-time never-smokers, which is estimated to significantly modify radiation cancer and CD risk estimates. A key feature of the NASA radiation protection model is the classification of radiation workers by smoking history in setting dose limits. Possible qualitative differences between GCR and low LET radiation increase uncertainties and are not included in previous risk estimates. Two important qualitative differences are emerging from research studies. The first is the increased lethality of tumors observed in animal models compared to low LET radiation or background tumors. The second are Non- Targeted Effects (NTE), which include bystander effects and genomic instability, which has been observed in cell and animal models of cancer risks. NTE's could lead to significant changes in RBE and DDREF estimates for GCR particles, and the potential effectiveness of radiation mitigator's. The NSRM- 2014 approaches to model radiation quality dependent lethality and NTE's will be described. CNS effects include both early changes that may occur during long space missions and late effects such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD effects 50% of the population above age 80-yr, is a degenerative disease that worsens with time after initial onset leading to death, and has no known cure. AD is difficult to detect at early stages and the small number of low LET epidemiology studies undertaken have not identified an association with low dose radiation. However experimental studies in mice suggest GCR may lead to early onset AD. We discuss modeling approaches to consider mechanisms whereby radiation would lead to earlier onset of occurrence of AD. Biomarkers of AD include amyloid beta (A(Beta)) plaques, and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) made up of aggregates of the hyperphosphorylated form of the micro-tubule associated, tau protein. Related markers include synaptic degeneration, dentritic spine loss, and neuronal cell loss through apoptosis. Radiation may affect these processes by causing oxidative stress, aberrant signaling following DNA damage, and chronic neuroinflammation. Cell types to be considered in multi-scale models are neurons, astrocytes, and microglia. We developed biochemical and cell kinetics models of DNA damage signaling related to glycogen synthase kinase-3(Beta) (GSK3(Beta)) and neuroinflammation, and considered multi-scale modeling approaches to develop computer simulations of cell interactions and their relationships to A(Beta) plaques and NFTs. Comparison of model results to experimental data for the age specific development of A(Beta) plaques in transgenic mice will be discussed.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Airborne Doppler Wind Lidar Post Data Processing Software DAPS-LV

Systems, methods, and devices of the present invention enable post processing of airborne Doppler wind LIDAR data. In an embodiment, airborne Doppler wind LIDAR data software written in LabVIEW may be provided and may run two versions of different airborne wind profiling algorithms. A first algorithm may be the Airborne Wind Profiling Algorithm for Doppler Wind LIDAR ("APOLO") using airborne wind LIDAR data from two orthogonal directions to estimate wind parameters, and a second algorithm may be a five direction based method using pseudo inverse functions to estimate wind parameters. The various embodiments may enable wind profiles to be compared using different algorithms, may enable wind profile data for long haul color displays to be generated, may display long haul color displays, and/or may enable archiving of data at user-selectable altitudes over a long observation period for data distribution and population.

Beyon, Jeffrey Y.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Aerobic Standards for Lunar Surface Extravehicular Activities

Introduction: As NASA prepares to return to the Moon, astronauts will need to be physically primed to successfully execute Extravehicular Activities (EVA) on the Lunar surface. Compared to past Apollo missions, Artemis missions will include EVAs of increased physical demand, frequency, intensity, and duration, thus requiring adequate fitness to successfully and safely complete mission objectives. The physical demand associated with partial gravity (g) EVAs on the Moon is expected to be greater compared to microgravity EVAs based on initial workload estimation. Currently, aerobic fitness standards for partial g EVAs are not well supported by high-fidelity data and require further research for establishing standards to protect crew health and performance during Lunar surface missions. Therefore, the aim of this investigation is to characterize metabolic data from Lunar analog simulations and in-flight crew population aerobic capacity data to validate the current NASA 3001 standard for celestial partial g aerobic fitness (aerobic capacity (VO_2pk) ≥36.5ml/kg/min). Methods: In order to evaluate aerobic fitness requirements for Lunar EVAs, the following were performed: 1) preliminary analysis of long-duration (6 hr) EVA analog simulations in the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) and the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) to evaluate expected metabolic rates for 1/6 g EVAs (NBL: n=1 female; ARGOS: n=1 male) and 2) assessment of the current NASA 3001 celestial surface EVA aerobic standard (aerobic capacity (VO_2pk) ≥36.5ml/kg/min) with data from an ISS astronaut population (n=30 male + 13 female) captured before and during space flight (flight day 15). Preliminary Results: Average fractional aerobic capacity during simulated EVAs were 33%±7% VO_2pk and 23.3±7% VO_2pk in the NBL and ARGOS, respectively. This was within a previously predicted 30–40% sustainable work rate. Average metabolic rates for some tasks performed in the NBL, such as traverse (40.4% VO_2pk) and ingress (47.1% VO_2pk) were higher than the predicted sustainable work range. In ARGOS, the tasks with the greatest metabolic rates were object relocation (34.2% VO_2pk) and incapacitated crew rescue (27.0% VO_2pk). Characterization of ISS crewmember aerobic capacity determined that the average preflight VO_2pk was 42.1±5.4 ml/kg/min for females and 37.5±5.4 ml/kg/min for males. At preflight, 21.5% of crewmembers were below the 36.5 ml/kg/min in-mission aerobic standard for celestial surface EVA as outlined in NASA-STD-3001. In-flight, both female and male crewmembers experienced reductions in VO_2pk (11.7% and 10.9%, respectively), such that, during the mission, 62% of crewmembers were below the standard aerobic capacity level for celestial surface EVAs. Conclusions: Our preliminary data suggest that while average metabolic rates for simulated Lunar EVA fall within the 30–40% sustainable work range, task specific metabolic rates exceed this range and may indicate that greater fitness is necessary for more strenuous tasks expected to be performed on the Lunar surface. Additionally, deconditioning due to space flight results in most crewmembers falling below the current celestial partial g EVA standard, which may increase risk to crew health and performance and completing mission objectives for surface missions. Further research is necessary in Artemis-specific analog environments to validate the current NASA-3001 aerobic standard for celestial EVAs. Additionally, work is ongoing to validate the current NASA-3001 strength standard for celestial EVAs.

N.C. Strock↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Aerobic Standards for Lunar Surface Extravehicular Activities

As NASA prepares to return to the Moon, astronauts will need to be physically primed to successfully execute Extravehicular Activities (EVA) on the Lunar surface. Compared to past Apollo missions, Artemis missions will include EVAs of increased physical demand, frequency, intensity, and duration, thus requiring adequate fitness to successfully and safely complete mission objectives. The physical demand associated with partial gravity (g) EVAs on the Moon is expected to be greater compared to microgravity EVAs based on initial workload estimation. Currently, aerobic fitness standards for partial g EVAs are not well supported by high-fidelity data and require further research for establishing standards to protect crew health and performance during Lunar surface missions. Therefore, the aim of this investigation is to characterize metabolic data from Lunar analog simulations and in-flight crew population aerobic capacity data to validate the current NASA 3001 standard for celestial partial g aerobic fitness (aerobic capacity (VO_2pk) ≥36.5ml/kg/min).

Nicole Strock↗
NASA NTRS2010

Bone Health Monitoring in Astronauts: Recommended Use of Quantitative Computed Tomography [QCT] for Clinical and Operational Decisions

This slide presentation reviews the concerns that astronauts in long duration flights might have a greater risk of bone fracture as they age than the general population. A panel of experts was convened to review the information and recommend mechanisms to monitor the health of bones in astronauts. The use of Quantitative Computed Tomography (QCT) scans for risk surveillance to detect the clinical trigger and to inform countermeasure evaluation is reviewed. An added benefit of QCT is that it facilitates an individualized estimation of bone strength by Finite Element Modeling (FEM), that can inform approaches for bone rehabilitation. The use of FEM is reviewed as a process that arrives at a composite number to estimate bone strength, because it integrates multiple factors.

Sibonga, J. D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Elemental Abundances of nearby M Dwarfs Based on High-resolution Near-infrared Spectra Obtained by the Subaru/IRD Survey: Proof of Concept

Detailed chemical analyses of M dwarfs are scarce but necessary to constrain the formation environment and internal structure of planets being found around them. We present elemental abundances of 13 M dwarfs (2900 < T eff < 3500 K) observed in the Subaru/IRD planet search project. They are mid- to late-M dwarfs whose abundance of individual elements has not been well studied. We use the high-resolution (∼70,000) near-infrared (970–1750 nm) spectra to measure the abundances of Na, Mg, Si, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Sr by the line-by-line analysis based on model atmospheres, with typical errors ranging from 0.2 dex for [Fe/H] to 0.3–0.4 dex for other [X/H]. We measure radial velocities from the spectra and combine them with Gaia astrometry to calculate the Galactocentric space velocities UVW . The resulting [Fe/H] values agree with previous estimates based on medium-resolution K-band spectroscopy, showing a wide distribution of metallicity (−0.6 < [Fe/H] < +0.4). The abundance ratios of individual elements [X/Fe] are generally aligned with the solar values in all targets. While the [X/Fe] distributions are comparable to those of nearby FGK stars, most of which belong to the thin-disk population, the most metal-poor object, GJ 699, could be a thick-disk star. The UVW velocities also support this. The results raise the prospect that near-infrared spectra of M dwarfs obtained in the planet search projects can be used to grasp the trend of elemental abundances and the Galactic stellar population of nearby M dwarfs.

Hiroyuki Tako Ishikawa↗
NASA NTRS1973

A non-LTE study of silicon line formation in early-type main-sequence atmospheres.

We have computed populations of 16 levels of Si III-V and radiation fields in all connecting transitions; in particular the first six Si III triplet levels, including the 4553 line, and the first six Si IV levels including 4089. The computations were done for four non-LTE H-He model atmospheres, provided by Auer and Mihalas. Estimates of corresponding MK types are B1.5 V, B0.5 V, O9 V, and O6. Solutions were obtained by iterating the linearized equations of radiative transfer and statistical equilibrium, except that for less important lines an approximate equivalent two-level atom treatment was used. Continuous opacities of C, N, O, and Ne were included. All abundances were solar values.

Kamp, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The ultraviolet extinction in M-supergiant circumstellar envelopes

Using International Ultraviolet (IUS) archival low-dispersion spectra, ultraviolet spectral extinctions were derived for the circumstellar envelopes of two M supergiants: HD 60414 and HD 213310. The observed stellar systems belong to a class of widely-separated spectroscopic binaries that are called VV Cephei stars. The total extinction was calculated by dividing the reddened fluxes with unreddened comparison fluxes of similar stars (g B2.5 for HD 213310 and a normalized s+B3 for HD 60414) from the reference atlas. After substracting the interstellar extinctions, which were estimated from the E(B-V) reddening of nearby stars, the resultant circumstellar extinctions were normalized at about 3.5 inverse microns. Not only is the 2175 A extinction bump absent in the circumstellar extinctions, but the far-ultraviolet extinction rise is also absent. The rather flat, ultraviolet extinction curves were interpreted as signatures of a population of noncarbonaceous, oxygen-rich grains with diameters larger than the longest observed wavelength.

Buss, R. H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Chandra X-Ray Survey of Ejecta in the Cassiopeia A Supernova Remnant

We present a survey of the X-ray emitting ejecta in the Cassiopeia A supernova remnant based on an extensive analysis of over 6000 spectral regions extracted on 2.5-10" angular scales using the Chandra 1 Ms observation. We interpret these results in the context of hydrodynamical models for the evolution of the remnant. The distributions of fitted temperature and ionization age are highly peaked and suggest that the ejecta were subjected to multiple secondary shocks. Based on the fitted emission measure and element abundances, and an estimate of the emitting volume, we derive masses for the X-ray emitting ejecta as well as showing the distribution of the mass of various elements over the remnant. The total shocked Fe mass appears to be roughly 0.14 Solar Mass, which accounts for nearly all of the mass expected in Fe ejecta. We find two populations of Fe ejecta, that associated with normal Si-burning and that associated with alpha-rich freeze-out, with a mass ratio of approximately 2:1. Surprisingly, essentially all of this Fe (both components) is well outside the central regions of the SNR, presumably having been ejected by hydrodynamic instabilities during the explosion. We discuss this, and its implications for the neutron star kick.

Hwang, Una↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Achieving Global Consensus on Acceptable Sound Levels for Overland Supersonic Flight

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has made a commitment to deliver to the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (ICAO CAEP) data defining community response to sounds from supersonic aircraft designed such that their sonic boom is replaced with a soft “thump” sound. The dataset will be a correlation of public perceptions of these sounds to the corresponding acoustic levels. The data will support efforts to develop international standards for permissible noise from supersonic overflight. NASA is planning and preparing for a series of community overflight tests with the X-59, a unique research aircraft capable of generating the “sonic thump”. NASA will begin these tests in 2024. With an eye toward achieving global consensus for noise standards, NASA’s goal is that the community response data be as broadly representative of the response of the international population as possible. As such, NASA is engaging the international regulatory and research communities in both the planning and execution of these tests, through status briefings at ICAO CAEP-sponsored meetings and through workshops with international participation. As part of this outreach NASA held a virtual workshop in December 2021 focused on strategies and considerations for estimating noise exposure levels and conducting surveys to characterize community annoyance levels relative to the “thump” sounds. This paper will present an overview of NASA’s effort, with a focus on the plans and technical goals for the community response tests. In addition, results of the recent workshop will be briefed, including considerations and approaches for ensuring broad representativeness of results and approaches for estimation of the sound levels across the test community. Participant feedback from both the workshop and previous engagements will be discussed, along with how it is being addressed in NASA’s ongoing planning efforts.

Supersonic Flight↗
NASA NTRS1994

Velocity distributions among colliding asteroids

The probability distribution for impact velocities between two given asteroids is wide, non-Gaussian, and often contains spikes according to our new method of analysis in which each possible orbital geometry for collision is weighted according to its probability. An average value would give a good representation only if the distribution were smooth and narrow. Therefore, the complete velocity distribution we obtain for various asteroid populations differs significantly from published histograms of average velocities. For all pairs among the 682 asteroids in the main-belt with D greater than 50 km, we find that our computed velocity distribution is much wider than previously computed histograms of average velocities. In this case, the most probable impact velocity is approximately 4.4 km/sec, compared with the mean impact velocity of 5.3 km/sec. For cases of a single asteroid (e.g., Gaspra or Ida) relative to an impacting population, the distribution we find yields lower velocities than previously reported by others. The width of these velocity distributions implies that mean impact velocities must be used with caution when calculating asteroid collisional lifetimes or crater-size distributions. Since the most probable impact velocities are lower than the mean, disruption events may occur less frequently than previously estimated. However, this disruption rate may be balanced somewhat by an apparent increase in the frequency of high-velocity impacts between asteroids. These results have implications for issues such as asteroidal disruption rates, the amount/type of impact ejecta available for meteoritical delivery to the Earth, and the geology and evolution of specific asteroids like Gaspra.

Bottke, William F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Far-Infrared Water Emissions from Magnetohydrodynamic Shock Waves

Nondissociative, magnetohydrodynamic, C-type shock waves are expected to be a prodigious source of far-infrared water emissions in dense interstellar regions. We have constructed a model to calculate the farinfrared H20 line spectra that emerge from such shocks. Using the best estimates currently available for the radiative cooling rate and the degree of ion-neutral coupling within the shocked gas, we modeled the temperature structure of MHD shocks using standard methods in which the charged and neutral particles are treated separately as two weakly coupled, interpenetrating fluids. Then we solved the equations of statistical equilibrium to find the populations of the lowest 179 and 170 rotational states of ortho- and para-H2O We have completed an extensive parameter study to determine the emergent H2O line luminosities as a function of preshock density in the range n(H2) equals 10(exp 4) - 10(sup 6.5)/cc and shock velocity in the range upsilon(sub s) = 5 - 40 km/ s. We find that numerous rotational transitions of water are potentially observable using the Infrared Space Observatory and the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite and may be used as diagnostics of the shocked gas. We have also computed the rotational and ro-vibrational emissions expected from H2, CO, and OH, and we discuss how complementary observations of such emissions may be used to further constrain the shock conditions. In common with previous studies, we come close to matching the observed H2, and high-J CO emissions from the Orion-KL star-forming region on the basis of a single shock model. We present our predictions for the strengths of H2O line emission from the Orion shock, and we show how our results may be scaled to other regions where molecular shocks are likely to be present.

Kaufman, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

NGC 1614: A Laboratory for Starburst Evolution

The modest extinction and reasonably face-on viewing geometry make the luminous infrared galaxy NGC 1614 an ideal laboratory for study of a powerful starburst. HST/NICMOS observations show: (1) deep CO stellar absorption, tracing a starburst nucleus about 45 pc in diameter; (2) surrounded by an approx. 600 pc diameter ring of supergiant H II regions revealed in Pa-alpha line emission; (3) lying within a molecular ring indicated by its extinction shadow in H - K; and (4) all at the center of a disturbed spiral galaxy. The luminosities of the giant H II regions in the ring axe extremely high, an order of magnitude brighter than 30 Doradus; very luminous H II regions, comparable with 30 Dor, are also found in the spiral arms of the galaxy. Luminous stellar clusters surround the nucleus and lie in the spiral arms, similar to clusters observed in other infrared luminous and ultraluminous galaxies. The star forming activity may have been initiated by a merger between a disk galaxy and a companion satellite, whose nucleus appears in projection about 300 pc to the NE of the nucleus of the primary galaxy. The relation of deep stellar CO bands to surrounding ionized gas ring to molecular gas indicates that the luminous starburst started in the nucleus and is propagating outward into the surrounding molecular ring. This hypothesis is supported by evolutionary starburst modeling that shows that the properties of NGC 1614 can be fitted with two short-lived bursts of star formation separated by 5 Myr (and by inference by a variety of models with a similar duration of star formation). The total dynamical mass of the starburst region of 1.3 x 10(exp 9) solar masses is mostly accounted for by the old pre-starburst stellar population. Although our starburst models use a modified Salpeter initial mass function (turning over near one solar mass), the tight mass budget suggests that the IMF may contain relatively more 10 - 30 solar masses stars and fewer low mass stars than the Salpeter function. The dynamical mass is nearly four times smaller than the mass of molecular gas estimated from the standard ratio of (C-12)O (1 - 0) to H2. A number of arguments place the mass of gas in the starburst region at approx. 25% of the dynamical mass, nominally about 1/15 and with an upper limit of 1/10 of the amount estimated from (C-12)O and the standard ratio.

Alonso-Herrero, A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Photospheric Radius Expansion and a Double-peaked Type-I X-Ray Burst from GRS 1741.9-2853

We present an analysis of two type-I X-ray bursts observed by NuSTAR originating from the very faint transient neutron star (NS) low-mass X-ray binary GRS 1741.9–2853 during a period of outburst in 2020 May. We show that the persistent emission can be modeled as an absorbed, Comptonized blackbody in addition to Fe Kα emission, which can be attributed to relativistic disk reflection. We measure a persistent bolometric, unabsorbed luminosity of L(bol) = 7.03(+0.04, -0.05) x 10^(36) erg/s, assuming a distance of 7 kpc, corresponding to an Eddington ratio of 4.5%. This persistent luminosity combined with light-curve analysis leads us to infer that the bursts were the result of pure He burning rather than mixed H/He burning. Time-resolved spectroscopy reveals that the bolometric flux of the first burst exhibits a double-peaked structure, placing the source within a small population of accreting NSs that exhibit multiple-peaked type-I X-ray bursts. We find that the second, brighter burst shows evidence for photospheric radius expansion (PRE) and that at its peak, this PRE event had an unabsorbed bolometric flux of F(peak)= 2.94 (+0.28, -0.26) 10^(-8) erg/sq.cm s. This yields a new distance estimate of d = 9.0 ± 0.5 kpc, assuming that this corresponds to the Eddington limit for pure He burning on the surface of a canonical NS. Additionally, we performed a detailed timing analysis that failed to find evidence for quasi-periodic oscillations or burst oscillations, and we place an upper limit of 16% on the rms variability around 589 Hz, the frequency at which oscillations have previously been reported.

Sean N. Pike↗
NASA NTRS2006

Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2), respectively, with year 2100 climate and emissions.

Liao, Hong↗