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At least 649 records · Page 36

Event Location using Arrival Times from Seismic and Acoustic Phenomena

Accurately locating seismoacoustic sources with geophysical observations helps to monitor natural and anthropogenic phenomena. Sparsely deployed infrasound arrays can readily locate large sources thousands of kms away, but small events typically produce signals observable at only local to regional distances. At such distances, accurate location efforts rely on observations across smaller regional or temporary deployments which often consist of single-channel infrasound sensors that cannot record direction of arrival. Event locations can also be aided by inclusion of ground coupled airwaves (GCA). This study demonstrates how we can robustly locate a catalog of seismoacoustic events using infrasound, GCA, and seismic arrival times at local to near-regional distances. We employ a probabilistic location framework using simplified forward models. Our results indicate that both single-channel infrasound and GCA arrival times can provide accurate estimates of event location in the absence of array-based observations even when using simple models. However, one must carefully choose model uncertainty bounds to avoid underestimation of confidence intervals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Reverse Time Migration of Explosion-generated Infrasound and Ground-Coupled Airwaves

Accurately locating sources of seismic and infrasonic energy is integral to global monitoring of earthquakes and explosions. Infrasound arrivals times can be used to calculate the origins of events that generate acoustic energy. Picking times of emergent infrasound arrivals, however, can be difficult and prone to uncertainty. Reverse time migration (RTM) is a waveform based location method that does not rely on picked arrival times. Here we use RTM to locate a known chemical explosion that generated acoustic and acoustic-to-seismic signals on 26 and 108 receivers, respectively. All location predictions are less than 24 km from the known location with time errors of less than three minutes. We find strong overall agreement between our results and those of existing RTM and arrival time based methods. Our initial results suggest that RTM is a promising method of event location using acoustic arrivals recorded on both infrasound and seismic instrumentation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Seismic Signal Detection on International Monitoring System 3-Component Stations using PhaseNet

In this report we discuss training a deep learning seismic signal detection model on 3-component stations from the International Monitoring System (IMS) using the PhaseNet architecture. Using 14 years of associated signals from the International Data Centre’s (IDC) Late Event Bulletin (LEB), we auto-curated training data consisting of signal windows containing associated arrivals, and noise windows that contain no LEB-associated signals. We trained several models using different waveform window durations (30 seconds and 100 seconds), with and without bandpass filtering. We evaluated the effectiveness of our models using associated signals from the Unconstrained Global Event Bulletin (UGEB) and found that several of our models outperformed the signal detections from the IDC’s Selected Event List 3 (SEL3) arrival table. The SEL3 bulletin evaluated on the UGEB dataset with 100-second waveform windows registered a precision and recall of .15 and .48, respectively, versus .19 and .59 for our filtered-data model. For the 30-second waveform window dataset, the SEL3 bulletin achieved a precision and recall of .31 and .47, respectively, versus .32 and .60 for our filtered-data model. Finally, our models detected signals from all source-to-receiver distances, suggesting it is feasible to use a single PhaseNet model for the IMS network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantum-enhanced Imaging and Spectroscopy and their Relevance to International Safeguards

As a follow-up to our previous report on quantum sensing for safeguards, here we delve deeper into quantum-enhanced imaging & spectroscopy and address their relevance to international safeguards. Much of the approaches rely on entangled photons, a quantum phenomenon not possible with classical physics, although just correlated photons will work for some applications, such as ghost imaging. We provide a comprehensive survey of quantum approaches, including multiple entangled photon ghost imaging and spectroscopy techniques. Entangled photons for noise reduction are also described, as well as Non-Line-Of-Sight imaging, compressive techniques, and squeezed light. Of particular interest is the generation of entangled photons with large wavelength separation, such as infrared/visible entangled photon pairs. Such entangled pairs would allow interaction with objects in the IR, such as in the molecular “fingerprint” wavelength region, while the recording device captures the visible photons, thus leveraging the high efficiency and lower cost of visible detectors. Unfortunately, entangled x-ray photons are not practical, which would have been useful for safeguards to interrogate shielded materials. Entangled gamma rays are even further beyond reason. We provide our assessment for application of quantum-enhanced imaging & spectroscopy for international safeguards, including suggested improvements to existing IAEA instruments and destructive assay measurements that are done at IAEA lab facilities.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Electropotential Verification for Nuclear Safeguards

The international safeguards regime desires methods to efficiently verify that facilities are only performing declared activities. Electropotential verification (EPV) is a newly proposed technique that was tested for its feasibility to perform facility design information verification (DIV). EPV works by passing a constant, low voltage current through a conductive system (facility infrastructure of nuclear fuel assembly) and measuring the resulting voltage at various places throughout the infrastructure in order to establish a baseline. Changes made to the system affect these voltage readings, which will deviate from the baseline and indicate that a change to the system was made. For large scale infrastructure such as a nuclear facility DIV, it appears feasible that changes in configuration of the system’s grounding can be detected in real-time, and the location of the change can be inferred from the measured intensity of the change in voltage.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Deep Deception: Exemplars of Adversarial Machine Learning and Countermeasures Applicable to International Safeguards

As a follow-up to our more comprehensive report on Adversarial Machine Learning (AML), here we provide demonstrations of AML attacks against the Limbo image database of UF6 cylinders in a variety of orientations and amongst a variety of distractor images. We demonstrate the Carlini & Wagner AML attack against a subset of Limbo images, with 100% attack success rate; meaning all attacked images were misclassified by a highly accurate trained model, yet the image changes were imperceptible to the human eye. We also demonstrate successful attacks against segmented images (images with more than one targeted object). Finally, we demonstrated the Fast Fourier Transform countermeasure that can be used to detect AML attacks on images. The intent of this and our previous report is to inform the IAEA and stakeholders of both the promise of machine learning, which could greatly improve the efficiency of surveillance monitoring, but also of the real threat of AML and potential defenses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Developing an intrinsically secure information barrier for arms control verification through machine learning

Near-term solutions are needed to allow for flexible engagement in future nuclear arms control discussions. This project developed a method for implementing an information barrier (IB) on commercial systems, shortening the research and development lifecycle for warhead verification technologies while offering improved and inherently flexible capabilities. The crux of the verification challenge remains the difficulty in developing an authenticatable IB which prevents sensitive host country information from inadvertent transmission to an inspector. Many concepts for IB’s rely on dedicated “trusted” processor modules developed with dedicated custom radiation detection systems and associated algorithms. Without a priori knowledge of the treaty item, the parameter space for measurements can be nearly infinite and robustness against spoofing without the ability to view sensitive data is key. This project has produced an unclassified framework capable of ingesting data from common gamma detectors and identifying the presence of weapons grade nuclear material at over 90% accuracy.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Developing a Facility NMAC Plan

The table presented below suggests the basic information that should be covered in a facility NMAC Plan for an NMAC program that is designed for nuclear security. The topics are appropriate for and should be addressed by all facilities in their NMAC Plans. They are appropriate for NMAC Plans for nuclear power plants, research reactors, fuel manufacturing facilities, facilities that produce medical isotopes, and other facilities. The difference is in the intensity with which the various measures are applied and the thoroughness of the description of the application (i.e., the program requirements). The robustness of a facility NMAC program and the content of its NMAC Plan should be graded in accordance with the type of facility and the category of its nuclear material.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

PRO-X Fuel Cycle Transportation and Crosscutting Report: Avoidability Task

As the frequency and quantities of nuclear material shipments escalate internationally to meet the increased demand for small modular (SMR) and advanced (AR) reactors, the risks and costs associated with shipping activities also likely to increase with them. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate possibilities for risk reduction via avoidability—or, avoiding or reducing the need for nuclear shipments, where possible, either by reducing the frequency or quantities of materials contained in shipments.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

PRO-X Transportation Global Landscape

The Proliferation Resistance Optimization (PRO-X) program is actively supporting the design of new-build nuclear systems by identifying intrinsic characteristics or design choices to minimize the potential for diversion or production of weapons-usable nuclear material. The PRO-X program looks to optimize the safety, security, and performance of the fuel cycle infrastructure for a wide array of reactor types, including research reactors, small modular reactors (SMRs), and large advanced reactors (ARs).

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

PRO-X Parallelization Study

The proliferation resistance optimization (PRO-X) program is actively supporting the design of nuclear systems by developing a framework to both optimize the fuel cycle infrastructure for nuclear reactor (including both advanced reactors (ARs) and research reactors (RRs)) and minimize the potential for production of weapons-usable nuclear material (Figure 1). One area of interest is in the impact a modular approach to bulk handling fuel cycle facilities could have on meeting safeguards requirements to identify future areas of growth within the proliferation resistance space. This study evaluates how changing the number of streams within a fuel cycle facility could impact a facilities ability to meet both domestic and international safeguards requirements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Risk of theft and malicious use of radiation sources in transit

Remote radioactive source applications require frequent transportation of sources from storage locations to remote sites. This introduces risk of theft of a source during the transportation process, with the level of risk proportional to the radioactivity of the source. To that end, theft of smaller sources, such as microcurie-level moisture density gauges, are of minor concern, but larger sources, such as those used for radiography and well logging, present more risk. Radiography sources include 192 Ir, 75 Se, or 60 Co radionuclides with radioactivity amounts at or exceeding IAEA Category 2. Well-logging sources, primarily 241 Am/Be, are used for their neutron-emission properties. 137 Cs is also used in well-logging at lower activities than in radiography but at levels that still present some risk. The vulnerability for malicious use of such sources to cause contamination and associated economic effects is dependent on the elemental chemical and physical properties, especially melting point and bulk modulus. Theft of radiography sources is somewhat common, well-logging sources less so. Theft of sources commonly occurs in concert with theft of the vehicle, with the source subsequently abandoned. There have been some instances where a source appears to have been specifically targeted. There are a variety of security measures and protocols, available and under development, to mitigate the risk of theft and assist in source recovery.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Testing Paired Neural Network Models for Aftershock Identification

Aftershock sequences are a burden to real-time seismic monitoring. Cross-correlation can be used because aftershocks exhibit similar waveforms, but the method is computationally expensive. Deep learning may be an alternative, as it is computationally efficient, but great attention to training and testing is required in order to trust that the model can generalize to new aftershock sequences. This is problematic for aftershock sequences, because large-magnitude earthquakes are unpredictable and are globally widespread. Here, we test several paired neural network (PNN) models trained on a augmented (noise-added) earthquake dataset, to determine whether they can be generalized to process real aftershock sequences. Two aftershock datasets that were originally detected by cross-correlation and subsequently validated by an expert analyst were used. We found that current PNN models struggle to generalize to aftershock sequences. However, we identify approaches to improve training future PNN models and believe that improvements may be achieved by transfer learning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Catalog of Temporally Localized Systematic Deviations in Global Body Wave Travel-Time Measurements

Accurate measurements of the arrival times of seismic waves are crucial for seismological analyses such as robust locations of earthquakes, characterization of seismic sources, and high-fidelity imaging of the Earth’s interior. However, these travel-time measurements can sometimes be contaminated by timing errors at the stations which record this data. In this study, we apply a classical approach, based on identifying time-dependence in measured body wave arrival times, to identify these timing errors in a dataset on the order of 107 individual measurements. We find timing deviations at a subset of the stations in our dataset and document the temporal location, extent, and severity of these errors, finding errors at 83 stations, and impacting ~100,000 measurements. This catalog of deviations may enable future investigators to obtain a more accurate dataset through the implementation of quality control measures to eliminate the contaminated data we have identified.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Crustal Scale Travel Time Prediction with the SALSA3D Framework and Machine Learning

The SALSA3D project aims to improve our models used in travel time prediction. The current version uses tomographic modeling for propagation through the Earth’s mantle because of the large number (order of millions) of observations of seismic phases which primarily traverse the Earth’s mantle and the ability to pose the travel time problem as a set of linear equations. However, all seismic rays traverse the crust to reach receivers at the surface and therefore models of propagation through the crust are required. Therefore, the primary motivation for this study is to explore how to increase the scope of the SALSA3D project to phases which travel primarily through the crust. In this report, we evaluate new, machine learning based and physics-based methods to model these travel times for integration into the SALSA3D framework. Our results suggest that using our existing physics-based travel time tomography method is a viable approach for the regional to global scale, but better predictive capabilities can be achieved through a neural network trained on the region of interest for near-regional offsets. We suggest future iterations of SALSA3D should incorporate machine learning tools such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks or Bayesian Neural Networks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Acoustic Research under the Source Physics Experiment

The Source Physics Experiment series is a long-term research and development (R&D) effort under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration focused on improving the physical understanding of how chemical explosions generate seismoacoustic signals. Beginning in 2011, a series of subsurface chemical explosions in two different and highly contrasting geologies were conducted at the Nevada National Security Site in Nevada, USA with the objective of improving simulation and modeling approaches to explosion identification, yield estimation and other monitoring applications. The two executed phases of the series provide new explosion signature source data from a wide range of geophysical diagnostic equipment; recorded data from the test series is now openly available to the broader seismoacoustic community. This manuscript details the executed test series, deployed seismoacoustic networks, and summarizes major scientific achievements utilizing recorded signatures from the explosive tests.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Material Property Determinations for Rock Valley Legacy Samples in Support of Source Physics Experiment

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The overarching goals of the SPE program are to improve understanding of prompt signals and physical signatures that develop from underground chemical explosions and associated modeling capabilities. Our work focuses on a primary factor controlling chemical explosion induced signals and signatures: the material properties of the rocks in which the chemical explosion takes place. This document reports on material property determinations of legacy core USGS Test Well F and outcrop analogs for the subsurface stratigraphy for the third phase of SPE in the Rock Valley (RV) area of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The objective of this work is to establish a baseline set of lithologic descriptions and material properties expected prior to observatory borehole drilling in support of the SPE-RVDC (Rock Valley Direct Comparison) experiment. We determine for each rock type the compressional failure envelope, elastic properties as a function of stress (bulk modulus versus mean stress, shear modulus versus shear stress, Young’s modulus versus axial stress and Poisson’s ratio versus axial stress), indirect tensile strength, and porosity. Geologic characterization, both at the core-scale and microscale, provides context for using the data in modeling efforts and to inform interpretations for the material properties testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electropotential Verification for Nuclear Safeguards

The international safeguards regime desires methods to efficiently verify that facilities are only performing declared activities. Electropotential verification (EPV) is a newly proposed technique that was tested for its feasibility to perform facility design information verification (DIV) and verification of spent nuclear fuel while in a cooling pool. EPV works by passing a constant, low voltage current through a conductive system (facility infrastructure of nuclear fuel assembly) and measuring the resulting voltage at various places throughout the infrastructure in order to establish a baseline. Changes made to the system affect these voltage readings, which will deviate from the baseline and indicate that a change to the system was made. For facility DIV, it appears feasible that changes in configuration of the system’s grounding can be detected in real-time, and the location of the change can be inferred from the measured intensity of the change in voltage. Determination of whether or not spent fuel was present in a fuel rod, as well as the presence/absence of a fuel rod from an assembly using EPV, proved unsuccessful with the sensitivity of instrumentation used in this study.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗