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At least 649 records · Page 36

Profitability of Cellulosic Biomass Production in the Northern Great Lakes Region

Producing bioenergy feedstocks on non‐crop land can largely avoid the food price feedbacks of energy biomass production on cropland. The U.S. northern tier grassland‐to‐forest ecotone offers large areas of marginal land that is not currently cropped. In this ecological transition zone, the relative profitability of grassy vs. woody sources of energy biomass is little studied. This paper reports an exploratory investment analysis of cellulosic biomass production in the northern Great Lakes region. It compares two short‐rotation tree crops, willow ( Salix sachalinensis F. Schmidt)and hybrid poplar ( Populus nigra L. X P. maximowiczii A. Henry), and switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) (a native prairie grass) to conventional mixed hay. Because biomass markets are not yet well developed, this study calculates threshold prices and yields at which biomass crops become at least as profitable as mixed grass hay. At 2010–2012 prices and available production technologies, none of the cellulosic crops is competitive with the hay baseline system. The breakeven price of energy biomass ranges from $90–100 per oven‐dry Mg −1 for all three energy crops. Breakeven yields are much more variable, due to the high cost of harvesting woody biomass. At 2010–2012 prices, necessary biomass yield increases range from 3.5‐fold for switchgrass and willow to over 25‐fold for poplar. While the ratio of input costs to revenue remains relatively constant between the northern and southern Great Lakes regions, the opportunity cost of active cropland in the southern zone is much higher, implying an economic comparative advantage for marginal land of the northern tier of the Great Lakes region.

Kells, Bradley J.↗

Solar Grade Silicon from Agricultural By-Products

In this project, Mayaterials developed a low cost, low energy and low temperature method of purifying rice hull ash to high purity (5-6Ns) and converting it by carbothermal reduction to solar grade quality silicon (Si pv ) using a self-designed and built electric arc furnace (EAF). Outside evaluation of our process by an independent engineering firm confirms that our technology greatly lowers estimated operating expenses (OPEX) to $\$$5/kg and capital expenses (CAPEX) to $\$$24/kg for Si pv production, which is well below best-in-class plants using a Siemens process approach (OPEX of ≈$\$$14/kg and CAPEX of $\$$87/kg, respectively). The primary limiting factor in the widespread use of photovoltaic (PV) cells is the high cost of manufacturing, compared to more traditional sources to reach 6 g Si pv /watt (with averages closer to 8+g/watt). In 2008, the spot price of Si pv rose to $\$$450/kg. While prices have since dropped to a more reasonable $\$$25/kg; this low price level is not sustainable, meaning the longer-term price will likely return to $\$$35/kg. The 6-8 g Si/watt implies that the Si pv used in a module will cost $\$$0.21-0.28/watt for the best producers (45% of the cost of a traditional solar panel), a major improvement from the cost/wafer driven by the $\$$50/kg Si costs of early 2011, but still a major hindrance in fulfilling DOE goal of lowering the cost of solar energy below $\$$1/watt. The solar cell industry has grown by 40% yearly for the past eight years, increasing the demand for Si pv . As such, future solar silicon price spikes are expected in the next few years. Although industry has invested billions of dollars to meet this ever-increasing demand, the technology to produce Si pv remains largely unchanged requiring the energy intensive, and chlorine dependent Siemens process or variations thereof. While huge improvements have been made, current state-of-the-art industrial plant still use 65 kWh/kg of silicon purified. Our technology offers a key distinction to other technologies as it starts one step upstream from all other Si pv production efforts. Our process starts by producing high purity SiO 2 /C feedstocks from which Si pv can be produced in a single, chlorine free, final EAF step. Specifically, our unique technology, and the resultant SiO 2 /C product can serve as high purity feedstocks to existing metallurgical silicon (Si met ) producers, allowing them to generate Si pv with existing US manufacturing infrastructure, reducing the overall capital and commissioning schedule. Our low energy, low CAPEX and OPEX process purifies the silica and carbon present in rice hull ash (RHA) at low temperatures (< 200°C) to produce high purity (5-6 Ns) feedstock for production of Si pv using furnaces similar to those used to produce Si met . During the course of this project we partnered with Wadham Energy LP (Wadham), who burns 220k ton of rice hulls (RH)/yr generating 200 GWh of electricity/yr and >30k ton/yr RHA. The power generation step produces much more energy (42 kWh/kg of final silicon produced) than required to purify the RHA (5 kWh/kg of Si pv , compared to 65 kWh/kg noted above. Biogenic silica offers three very important foundations for producing high purity silicon. First, wastes from silica accumulating plants, such as rice, corn, many grasses, algae and grains, contain very reactive, amorphous silica from which impurities are easily removed. Second, plants take up only a limited set of, and minimal quantities of the heavy metals present in nature, meaning fewer minerals must be removed. Third, biomass combustion generates a product with intrinsic residual carbon, mixed at nanometer length scales with the SiO 2 . RHA is 80-90 wt% high surface area (20 m 2 /g), amorphous SiO 2 with some simple mineral content mixed intimately with 5-15 wt% carbon. The mineral content is easily removed by low cost, acid washes using Mayaterials IP, leading to purified rice hull ash (RHAclean) at up to 6N purity. This highly reactive silica is partially extracted from RHAclean at 200 C in an environmentally benign process to adjust SiO 2 :C ratios to those needed in EAF processing to Si pv . EAF processing with silica depleted rice hull ash (RHASD), with nanometer scale carbon/silica mixing, reacts up to 10x faster than in traditional EAF processing because the physical distances over which the reactions occur are measured in nm vs cm. We have focused on demonstrating the efficiency in existing furnace technologies, meaning our success offers the potential to convert some portion of existing US furnace infrastructure (for Si met ) to high purity silicon production. The linkage of our process to the existing infrastructure of the U.S. silicon manufacturing industry, already a world leader, is unique compared to all other initiatives trying to produce Si pv . Purifying the silica/carbon mixture before EAF conversion to Si pv greatly reduces CAPEX and OPEX costs, reducing the final solar energy cost by $\$$0.18-0.24/watt.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Design, Test and Demonstration of Saturable Reactor High-Temperature Superconductor Fault Current Limiters

Zenergy Power has successfully designed, built, tested, and installed in the US electrical grid a saturable reactor Fault Current Limiter. Beginning in 2007, first as SC Power Systems and from 2008 as Zenergy Power, Inc., ZP used DOE matching grant and ARRA funds to help refine the design of the saturated reactor fault current limiter. ZP ultimately perfected the design of the saturated reactor FCL to the point that ZP could reliably design a suitable FCL for most utility applications. Beginning with a very basic FCL design using 1G HTS for a coil housed in a LN2 cryostat for the DC bias magnet, the technology progressed to a commercial system that was offered for sale internationally. Substantial progress was made in two areas. First, the cryogenics cooling system progressed from a sub-cooled liquid nitrogen container housing the HTS coils to cryostats utilizing dry conduction cooling and reaching temperatures down to less than 20 degrees K. Large, round cryostats with warm bore diameters of 1.7 meters enabled the design of large tanks to hold the AC components. Second, the design of the AC part of the FCL was refined from a six legged spider design to a more compact and lighter design with better fault current limiting capability. Further refinement of the flux path and core shape led to an efficient saturated reactor design requiring less Ampere-turns to saturate the core. In conclusion, the development of the saturable reactor FCL led to a more efficient design not requiring HTS magnets and their associated peripheral equipment, which yielded a more economical product in line with the electric utility industry expectations. The original goal for the DOE funding of the ZP project Design, Test and Demonstration of Saturable Reactor High-Temperature Superconductor Fault Current Limiters was to stimulate the HTS wire industry with, first 1G, then 2G, HTS wire applications. Over the approximately 5 years of ZP's product development program, the amount of HTS wire employed per FCL and its cost as a percentage of the total FCL product content had not dropped substantially from an unsustainable level of more than 50% of the total cost of the FCL, nor had the availability increased (today the availability of 2G wire for commercial applications outside of specific partnerships with the leading 2G wire manufacturers is extremely limited). ZP had projected a very significant commercial potential for FCLs with higher performance and lower costs compared to the initial models built with 1G wire, which would come about from the widespread availability of low-cost, high-performance 2G HTS wire. The potential for 2G wires at greatly reduced performance-based prices compared to 1G HTS conductor held out the potential for the commercial production of FCLs at price and performance levels attractive to the utility industry. However, the price of HTS wire did not drop as expected and today the available quantities of 2G wire are limited, and the price is higher than the currently available supplies of 1G wire. The commercial option for ZP to provide a reliable and reasonably priced FCL to the utility industry is to employ conventional resistive conductor DC electromagnets to bias the FCL. Since the premise of the original funding was to stimulate the HTS wire industry and ZP concluded that copper-based magnets were more economical for the foreseeable future, DOE and ZP decided to mutually terminate the project.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Sensitivity of Utility-Scale Solar Deployment Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market and Performance Assumptions

The SunShot Vision Study explored the potential growth of solar markets if solar prices decreased by about 75% from 2010 to 2020. The ReEDS model was used to simulate utility PV and CSP deployment for this present study, based on several market and performance assumptions - electricity demand, natural gas prices, coal retirements, cost and performance of non-solar renewable technologies, PVresource variability, distributed PV deployment, and solar market supply growth - in addition to the SunShot solar price projections. This study finds that utility-scale solar deployment is highly sensitive to solar prices. Other factors can have significant impacts, particularly electricity demand and natural gas prices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

CALiPER Retail Lamps Study 3

The CALiPER program first began investigating LED lamps sold at retail stores in 2010, purchasing 33 products from eight retailers and covering six product categories. The findings revealed a fragmented marketplace, with large disparities in performance of different products, accuracy of manufacturer claims, and offerings from different retail outlets. Although there were some good products, looking back many would not be considered viable competitors to other available options, with too little lumen output, not high enough efficacy, or poor color quality. CALiPER took another look in late 2011purchasing 38 products of five different types from nine retailers and the improvement was marked. Performance was up; retailer claims were more accurate; and the price per lumen and price per unit efficacy were down, although the price per product had not changed much. Nonetheless, there was still plenty of room for improvement, with the performance of LED lamps not yet reaching that of well-established classes of conventional lamps (e.g., 75 W incandescent A19 lamps). Since the second retail lamp study was published in early 2012, there has been substantial progress in all aspects of LED lamps available from retailers. To document this progress, CALiPER again purchased a sample of lamps from retail stores 46 products in total, focusing on A19, PAR30, and MR16 lamps but instead of a random sample, sought to select products to answer specific hypotheses about performance. These hypotheses focused on expanding ranges of LED equivalency, the accuracy of lifetime claims, efficacy and price trends, as well as changes to product designs. Among other results, key findings include: There are now very good LED options to compete with 60 W, 75 W, and 100 W incandescent A19 lamps, and 75 W halogen PAR30 lamps. MR16 lamps have shown less progress, but there are now acceptable alternatives to 35 W, 12 V halogen MR16 lamps and 50 W, 120 V halogen MR16 lamps for some applications. Other uses, such as in enclosed luminaires, may require more development. At the same price point, lamps purchased in 2013 tended to have higher output and slightly higher efficacy than in 2011 or 2010. Over 30% of the products purchased in 2013 exceeded the maximum efficacy measured in 2011 (71 lm/W), with the most efficacious product measured at 105 lm/W. There appears to be increasing consistency in color quality, with a vast majority of products having a CCT of 2700 K or 3000 K and a CRI between 80 and 85. There were also fewer poor performing products tested and more high-performing products available in 2013 than in previous years. The accuracy of equivalency and performance claims was better than in 2011, but remains a concern, with 43% of tested products failing to completely meet their equivalency claim and 20% of products failing to match the manufacturer’s performance data. Although progress has been substantial, on average LED lamps remain more expensive than other energy efficiency lighting technologies -- although some aspects can be superior. Although not universal to all product lines or all product types, the issue of insufficient lumen output from LED lamps is waning. Thus, manufacturers can focus on other issues, such as reducing cost, improving electrical/dimmer compatibility, eliminating flicker, or improving color quality. While these issues are not inherent to all products, they remain a concern for the broader market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Energy Efficiency and Minimum Standards: a Market Analysis of Recent Changes in Appliance Eenergy Efficiency Standards in the United States

The objective of this paper is to examine the effect of energy efficiency standards on prices and market shares of major household appliances in the United States. The household appliance market is analyzed using point-of-sale (POS) retail data of clothes washers and dryers from NPD Group. Energy efficiency information for each clothes washer model was obtained from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) appliance energy database. Using these data, we conclude that energy efficiency standards had an overall negative impact on clothes washer price, and products with a mid-low efficiency rating experienced the greatest short run price drop following the January 2004 and 2007 new standard effective dates. In neither instance is there any evidence of an increase in prices of affected appliances. In both cases we analyse the price effects of the standard both relative to dryers as a counterfactual group. Additionally, we show that market shares for clothes washers shifted towards greater efficiency over the course of the period between 2002 and 2011.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Can Standards Increase Consumer Welfare? Evidence from a Change in Clothes Washer

We study prices and sales of individual clothes washer models before, during and after a 2007 standard that banned manufacture (but not sale) of low-e ciency units and increased the threshold for Energy Star certi cation. While quantities sold of washer models banned from manufacture decreased sharply, prices for banned models increased only modestly. At the same time, sales of higher-e ciency units rose markedly while prices for high-e ciency units declined. On average, washer e ciency increased but prices changed little. A simple welfare analysis indicates that consumer welfare loss from banned washers was far outweighed by gains from lower-priced high-e ciency units. While a full cost-bene t analysis is not feasible with the available data, we estimate a lower-bound gain in consumer surplus equal to 6-16 percent of total sales. This result may accord with earlier theoretical research that shows quality standards can increase welfare in monopolistically competitive industries that possess increasing returns to scale (Ronnen, 1991). Thus, if energy e ciency is a close proxy for quality, energy e ciency standards may increase competition, market e ciency and welfare.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

HTGR Economic / Business Analysis and Trade Studies Market Analysis for HTGR Technologies and Applications

This report provides supplemental information to the assessment of target markets provided in Appendix A of the 2012 Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Industry Alliance (NIA) business plan [NIA 2012] for deployment of High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) in the 2025 – 2050 time frame. This report largely reiterates the [NIA 2012] assessment for potential deployment of 400 to 800 HTGR modules (100 to 200 HTGR plants with 4 reactor modules) in the 600-MWt class in North America by 2050 for electricity generation, co-generation of steam and electricity, oil sands operations, hydrogen production, and synthetic fuels production (e.g., coal to liquids). As the result of increased natural gas supply from hydraulic fracturing, the current and historically low prices of natural gas remain a significant barrier to deployment of HTGRs and other nuclear reactor concepts in the U.S. However, based on U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Information Agency (EIA) data, U.S. natural gas prices are expected to increase by the 2030 – 2040 timeframe when a significant number of HTGR modules could be deployed. An evaluation of more recent EIA 2013 data confirms the assumptions in [NIA 2012] of future natural gas prices in the range of approximately $7/MMBtu to $10/MMBtu during the 2030 – 2040 timeframe. Natural gas prices in this range will make HTGR energy prices competitive with natural gas, even in the absence of carbon-emissions penalties. Exhibit ES-1 presents the North American projections in each market segment including a characterization of the market penetration logic. Adjustments made to the 2012 data (and reflected in Exhibit ES-1) include normalization to the slightly larger 625MWt reactor module, segregation between steam cycle and more advanced (higher outlet temperature) modules, and characterization of U.S. synthetic fuel process applications as a separate market segment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model – A User’s Guide

The Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model is a cost-performance techno-economic model that estimates total large-scale manufacturing costs for necessary to produce a given product. It is designed to provide production cost estimates for technology researchers to help guide technology research and development towards an eventual cost-effective product. The model presented in this user’s guide is generic and can be tailored to the manufacturing of any product, including the generation of electricity (as a product). This flexibility, however, requires the user to develop the processes and process efficiencies that represents a full-scale manufacturing facility. The generic model is comprised of several modules that estimate variable costs (material, labor, and operating), fixed costs (capital & maintenance), financing structures (debt and equity financing), and tax implications (taxable income after equipment and building depreciation, debt interest payments, and expenses) of a notional manufacturing plant. A cash-flow method is used to estimate a selling price necessary for the manufacturing plant to recover its total cost of production. A levelized unit sales price ($ per unit of product) is determined by dividing the net-present value of the manufacturing plant’s expenses ($) by the net present value of its product output. A user defined production schedule drives the cash-flow method that determines the levelized unit price. In addition, an analyst can increase the levelized unit price to include a gross profit margin to estimate a product sales price. This model allows an analyst to understand the effect that any input variables could have on the cost of manufacturing a product. In addition, the tool is able to perform sensitivity analysis, which can be used to identify the key variables and assumptions that have the greatest influence on the levelized costs. This component is intended to help technology researchers focus their research attention on tasks that offer the greatest opportunities for cost reduction early in the research and development stages of technology invention.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impacts of Federal Tax Credit Extensions on Renewable Deployment and Power Sector Emissions

Federal tax credits for renewable energy (RE) have served as one of the primary financial incentives for RE deployment over the last two decades in the United States. In December 2015, the wind power production tax credit and solar investment tax credits were extended for five years as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2016. This report explores the impact that these tax credit extensions might have on future RE capacity deployment and power sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The analysis examines the impacts of the tax credit extensions under two distinct natural gas price futures as natural gas prices have been key factors in influencing the economic competitiveness of new RE development. The analysis finds that, in both natural gas price futures, RE tax credit extensions can spur RE capacity investments at least through the early 2020s and can help lower emissions from the U.S. electricity system. More specifically, the RE tax credit extensions are estimated to drive a net peak increase of 48-53 GW in installed RE capacity in the early 2020s -- longer term impacts are less certain. In the longer term after the tax credits ramp down, greater RE capacity is driven by a combination of assumed RE cost declines, rising fossil fuel prices, and other clean energy policies such as the Clean Power Plan. The tax credit extension-driven acceleration in RE capacity development can reduce fossil fuel-based generation and lower electric sector CO2 emissions. Cumulative emissions reductions over a 15-year period (spanning 2016-2030) as a result of the tax credit extensions are estimated to range from 540 to 1420 million metric tonnes CO2. These findings suggest that tax credit extensions can have a measurable impact on future RE deployment and electric sector CO2 emissions under a range of natural gas price futures.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Accelerating Improvements in the Energy Efficiency of Room Air Conditioners (RACs) in India: Potential, Cost-Benefit, and Policies (Interim Assessment)

Falling AC prices, increasing incomes, increasing urbanization, and high cooling requirements due to hot climate are all driving increasing uptake of Room Air Conditioners (RACs) in the Indian market. Air conditioning already comprises 40-60% of summer peak load in large metropolitan Indian cities such as Delhi and is likely to contribute 150 GW to the peak demand in 2030. Standards and labeling policies have contributed to improving the efficiency of RACs in India by about 2.5% in the last 10 years (2.5% per year) while inflation adjusted RAC prices have continued to decline. In this paper, we assess the technical feasibility, cost-benefit, and required policy enhancements by further accelerating the efficiency improvement of RACs in India. We find that there are examples of significantly more accelerated improvements such as those in Japan and Korea where AC efficiency improved by more than 7% per year resulting in almost a doubling of energy efficiency in 7 to 10 years while inflation adjusted AC prices continued to decline. We find that the most efficient RAC sold on the Indian market is almost twice as efficient as the typical AC sold on the market and hence see no technology constraints in a similar acceleration of improvement of efficiency. If starting 2018, AC efficiency improves at a rate of 6% instead of 3%, 40-60 GW of peak load (equivalent to connected load of 5-6 billion LED bulbs), and over 75 TWh/yr (equivalent to 60 million consumers consuming 100 kWh/month) will be saved by 2030; total peak load reduction would be as high as 50 GW. The net present value (NPV) of the consumer benefit between 2018-2030 will range from Rs 18,000 Cr in the most conservative case (in which prices don’t continue to decline and increase based estimates of today’s cost of efficiency improvement) to 140,000 Cr in a more realistic case (in which prices are not affected by accelerated efficiency improvement as shown by historical experience). This benefit is achievable by ratcheting up the 1 star level for fixed and inverter ACs to the level of today’s five star rating for inverter ACs by 2022. Bulk procurement (similar to the Domestic Efficient Lighting Program) and incentive programs can complement the accelerated ratcheting up of star levels. Similar programs can also be implemented for other types of ACs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ancillary Service Revenue Potential for Geothermal Generators in California

Achieving California’s 33% renewable generation goal will substantially increase uncertainty and variability in grid operations. Geothermal power plant operators could mitigate this variability and uncertainty by operating plants in a more flexible mode. Plant operators would be compensated for flexibility through payments for ancillary services such as frequency regulation, load following, and spinning reserve. This study explores economic incentives for geothermal plant operators to provide such flexibility. Historical and forecast ancillary service prices are compared to operator compensation for energy under firm contracts at fixed prices, which are higher than current or year 2020 projected market clearing prices for ancillary services in most hours of the year. Power purchase agreements recently executed by geothermal operators typically provide only energy payments at fixed energy prices and escalation rates. We postulate new contract structures that would allow a geothermal plant operator to switch from providing energy to providing ancillary services to the grid operator when it is advantageous to the plant operator to do so. Additional revenues would be earned through ancillary service payments. Estimates of these additional annual revenues a plant operator could realize are developed for a range of contract energy prices. The impacts of flexible operations on reservoir lifetimes and implications for project finance are also discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Ancillary Service Revenue Potential for Geothermal Generators in California FY15 Final Report

Achieving California’s 33% renewable generation goal will substantially increase uncertainty and variability in grid operations. Geothermal power plant operators could mitigate this variability and uncertainty by operating plants in a more flexible mode. Plant operators would be compensated for flexibility through payments for ancillary services such as frequency regulation, load following, and spinning reserve. This study explores economic incentives for geothermal plant operators to provide such flexibility. Historical and forecast ancillary service prices are compared to operator compensation for energy under firm contracts at fixed prices, which are higher than current or year 2020 projected market clearing prices for ancillary services in most hours of the year. Power purchase agreements recently executed by geothermal operators typically provide only energy payments at fixed energy prices and escalation rates. We postulate new contract structures that would allow a geothermal plant operator to switch from providing energy to providing ancillary services to the grid operator when it is advantageous to the plant operator to do so. Additional revenues would be earned through ancillary service payments. Estimates of these additional annual revenues a plant operator could realize are developed for a range of contract energy prices. The impacts of flexible operations on reservoir lifetimes and implications for project finance are also discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Transactive Control and Coordination of Distributed Assets for Ancillary Services: Controls, Markets and Simulations

The purpose of this project is to develop a plausible transactive framework for DER participation in a regulation market. This document focuses on the methodology for creating a transactive-based regulation market, using one class of end-use devices as an example. The system contains two parts, one for acquiring resources at a longer timescale and a second for controlling the devices in a distributed manner at much shorter timescales. The first is based on a formal double-auction market where every five minutes each device bids the amount of resource it is able to provide and the minimum price that it would accept to provide that resource. The bid price is determined by the current state of the device and the willingness of the consumer to participate. The market system collects and orders the bids by price, and then determines a cleared price to meet the level of regulation needed. It broadcasts the cleared price to the devices, which results in contracting the services of the least cost resources. By contract, the devices that cleared the market are now engaged for the next five-minute market period. They are part of a distributed control system that allows them to respond at four-second intervals to a broadcasted regulation signal. The approach also limits the number of times devices can cycle between states (say on to off) in a given amount of time to protect the equipment life.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Use of Statistically Based Rolling Supply Curves for Electricity Market Analysis: A Preliminary Look

In light of the changing electricity resource mixes across the United States, an important question in electricity modeling is how additions and retirements of generation, including additions in variable renewable energy (VRE) generation could impact markets by changing hourly wholesale energy prices. Instead of using resource-intensive production cost models (PCMs) or building and using simple generator supply curves, this analysis uses a 'top-down' approach based on regression analysis of hourly historical energy and load data to estimate the impact of supply changes on wholesale electricity prices, provided the changes are not so substantial that they fundamentally alter the market and dispatch-order driven behavior of non-retiring units. The rolling supply curve (RSC) method used in this report estimates the shape of the supply curve that fits historical hourly price and load data for given time intervals, such as two-weeks, and then repeats this on a rolling basis through the year. These supply curves can then be modified on an hourly basis to reflect the impact of generation retirements or additions, including VRE and then reapplied to the same load data to estimate the change in hourly electricity price. The choice of duration over which these RSCs are estimated has a significant impact on goodness of fit. For example, in PJM in 2015, moving from fitting one curve per year to 26 rolling two-week supply curves improves the standard error of the regression from 16 dollars/MWh to 6 dollars/MWh and the R-squared of the estimate from 0.48 to 0.76. We illustrate the potential use and value of the RSC method by estimating wholesale price effects under various generator retirement and addition scenarios, and we discuss potential limits of the technique, some of which are inherent. The ability to do this type of analysis is important to a wide range of market participants and other stakeholders, and it may have a role in complementing use of or providing calibrating insights to PCMs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

U.S. Renewables Portfolio Standards 2021 Status Update: Early Release

Berkeley Lab’s annual status report on U.S. renewables portfolio standards (RPS) provides an overview of key trends associated with U.S. state RPS policies. The report, published in slide-deck form, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on renewables development, and compliance costs. The 2021 Early Release, published in lieu of a 2020 edition, presents historical data through year-end 2019, with some limited results for the year 2020. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: Evolution of state RPS programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies. Among other significant changes since the start of 2019, eight states enacted higher RPS targets or created new clean-energy/zero-carbon targets (AZ, DC, MD, NM, NV, VA, WA), in most cases setting targets equal to at least 50% of retail sales. Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 23% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2019. However, within particular regions-namely, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic-RPS policies continue to serve a central role in motivating RE growth. Future RPS demand and incremental needs: RPS demand growth through 2030 will require roughly 90 GW of new RE capacity and will require total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 17% of electricity sales (compared to 12% in 2019). Relative to EIA projections, this amounts to roughly one-third of projected RE growth over the next decade. RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs rose steeply over 2019, reaching $40/MWh and remaining at roughly that level over 2020. PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise at a modest pace over the course of 2020, reaching $10/MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable over 2020, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC.RPS compliance costs and cost caps: RPS compliance costs in 2019 averaged roughly 2.6% of retail electricity bills in RPS states, compared to 2.3% in 2018, with costs in most states ranging from 0.5% to 4.5% of retail electricity bills.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Opportunities for Industry to Provide Flexibility While Increasing Profitability

Supply and demand flexibility will both be needed to ensure the electricity system functions properly as the share from variable renewable generation continues to grow. Industrial manufacturing currently consumes about a third of primary energy worldwide, and electricity is projected to supply an increasing share of this demand as the global economy decarbonizes. Therefore, the ability for industry to flex demand poses an enticing opportunity to enable grid flexibility. However, large capital outlays prevent industry from voluntarily altering demand. Here we show that as battery costs continue to fall, industry will soon be able to profitably alter demand in accordance with electricity price variations. Focusing on two established industries– chlor-alkali and electric arc furnaces – and two industries with large future potential – methane pyrolysis and atmospheric CO 2 capture, we use a linear program (LP) optimization to assess the technoeconomic feasibility of flexible industrial demand across both historical and future-looking wholesale day-ahead marginal prices for the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). We find positive net present values (NPV) from $\$$400K to $\$$50M using projected 2050 battery prices for industrial purchase of behind-the-meter batteries, using only arbitrage as a source of value. These results indicate that, with projected battery prices, profit-seeking industrial players could voluntarily play a future role in stabilizing a high-renewables grid where electricity prices act as accurate signals of grid needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

6.26 Low Cost Basalt Fiber for Automotive Applications

Vehicle lightweighting is an essential component to the automotive industry to improve fuel economy of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to meet ever improving emission standards and to improve the range of electric vehicles (EV). Composite materials offer high specific modulus and specific strength, which makes them appealing for these light weighting efforts. Sheet molding compounds (SMC) are particularly interesting from an automotive perspective because of the relatively low cost and high volume of producing SMC parts. Traditionally, composite materials for automotive application are glass fiber reinforced because of the attractive price - performance ratio, but basalt fibers are a cost and recycling competitive reinforcement alternative in this market. The aim of this project was to examine the feasibility of utilizing basalt fiber for automotive applications. More specifically, an effort was made to examine different fiber sizings on basalt fiber combined with vinyl-ester (VE) resin, and their performance as part of an SMC process. In addition to offering vehicle lightweighting with fiber reinforced polymer composites, basalt fiber is a fully recyclable material and thus supports the IACMI technical goal of: Demonstrate that the technology is capable at a sufficient scale for >80% recyclability or reuse of fiber reinforced polymer composites in five years into useful components with projected cost and quality at commercial scale competitive with virgin materials on a pathway to 95% recyclability or reuse starting in ten years. Three different fiber sizings were applied to a continuous roving of basalt fiber and compared to a traditional Electrical/Chemical Resistance (E-CR) glass fiber that is typically used in these types of applications. Fiber tows were examined for Loss on Ignition percentage (LOI%), Tex, and tow strength. Some sizings clearly outperformed others, and the ability to process these fibers on a pilot scale SMC line was demonstrated. A test plan for the manufacturing and mechanical testing of SMC panels was developed. This work continues outside the time frame allocated for this project. When this work is completed, it will be added to this report and posted as Appendix C. Glass fiber reinforced SMC materials have already proven feasible as a light weighting method for traditionally steel parts like the Volkswagen (VW) Atlas lift-gate (Figure 1); this project team is seeking the feasibility of basalt fiber as a drop-in replacement for glass fiber reinforced SMC. Sizing development for basalt fibers has proven that the mechanical properties are better than E-glass and closer to S-glass, which makes it an interesting material for SMC applications. Better mechanical properties translate to less material needed to achieve load case requirement for target applications. The business case has already been demonstrated for 100,000 parts per year of glass fiber reinforced SMC Atlas lift-gates compared to traditional steel manufacturing processes. Reduced overhead and assembly costs are offset by glass fiber SMC higher cost per kg beyond 100,000 parts per year, which is still a relatively low volume for the automotive industry. For basalt fiber reinforced SMC to become feasible for automotive applications, the price-performance ratio has to be precisely determined. Based on the mechanical performance it is possible to establish a range of applications and technical solutions in which the potential of basalt SMC can be utilized, while the price of the material can be used to compile the business case for such applications. Based on these business cases and the sustainability indicators, glass fiber reinforcement (or other) materials can be directly substituted. Volkswagen’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions cannot be understated. Basalt fiber shows promise of reducing the carbon footprint in SMC materials, especially if sizing optimizations can be made with thermoplastic based SMC. To fully realize the value of basalt fiber reinforced materials, a lifecycle cost analysis should be performed on basalt’s production and recycling, and then compared against E-glass. From this assessment, a true judgement can be made on the commercialization potential of this material. Figure 1. Example of Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composite Liftgate As a conclusion, we can state that Mafic basalt fiber is not a direct replacement for E-glass or E-CR glass based on price, but should be considered a technical solution when E-glass does not provide adequate performance in a composite design and S-glass, aramid and carbon fibers are too costly. Mafic basalt fiber can be placed on the high-performance fiber spectrum next to S-glass for performance but at one third the price. It should be considered for more technically challenging structural designs wherein the performance can demonstrate 20-25% performance enhancement over E-glass to elicit more strength or a weight reduction. Both Michelman and Mafic produce thermoplastic sizings which, in combination with Nylon and polypropylene resin and fibers, can further advance high speed composite implementations while maintaining an eco-friendly manufacturing process.

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