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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Fuzzy learning under and about an unfamiliar fuzzy teacher

This study addresses the problem of optimal parametric learning in unfamiliar fuzzy environments. Prior studies in the domain of unfamiliar environments, which employed either crisp or fuzzy approaches to model the uncertainty or imperfectness of the learning environment, assumed that the training sample labels provided by the unfamiliar teacher were crisp, even if not perfect. Here, the more realistic problem of fuzzy learning under an unfamiliar teacher who provides only fuzzy (instead of crisp) labels, is tackled by expanding the previously defined fuzzy membership concepts to include an additional component representative of the fuzziness of the teacher. The previously studied scenarios, namely, crisp and fuzzy learning under (crisp) unfamiliar teacher, can be looked upon as special cases of this new methodology. As under the earlier studies, the estimated membership functions can then be deployed during the ensuing classification decision phase to judiciously take into account the imperfectness of the learning environment. The study also offers some insight into the properties of several of these fuzzy membership function estimators by examining their behavior under certain specific scenarios.

Dasarathy, Belur V.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Far-ultraviolet imaging of the globular cluster NGC 6681 with WFPC2

We have imagined the globular cluster NGC 6681 in the far-UV and visible with Wide Field/Planetary Camera-2 (WFPC2) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Our far-UV images show a sparsely populated and fully resolved central region, and we detect 122 stars. The far-UV to visible color-magnitude diagram shows a well-defined horizontal branch with no evidence for hot, more evolved descendants. We find one hot horizontal-branch star significantly below the model zero-age horizontal branch, but the rest are consistent with evolutionary models within uncertainties in calibration, distance, and reddening. The center of the cluster harbors two luminous blue stragglers. Our far-UV images graphically confirm that there is no steep density gradient at small radii among the horizontal-branch stars of this post-core-collapse cluster and show no evidence for significant color gradients.

Watson, Alan M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Research of Stochastic Robustness: Results and conclusions

With stochastic robustness we are creating tools to design robust compensators for practical systems. During this year, the stochastic robustness research achieved the following results: refined the search tools needed for synthesis; successfully designed robust compensators for the American Controls Conference benchmark problem; and successfully designed robust compensators for a nonlinear hypersonic aircraft model with uncertainties in 28 parameters.

Marrison, Chris↗
NASA NTRS1998

Worst case estimation of homology design by convex analysis

The methodology of homology design is investigated for optimum design of advanced structures. for which the achievement of delicate tasks by the aid of active control system is demanded. The proposed formulation of homology design, based on the finite element sensitivity analysis, necessarily requires the specification of external loadings. The formulation to evaluate the worst case for homology design caused by uncertain fluctuation of loadings is presented by means of the convex model of uncertainty, in which uncertainty variables are assigned to discretized nodal forces and are confined within a conceivable convex hull given as a hyperellipse. The worst case of the distortion from objective homologous deformation is estimated by the Lagrange multiplier method searching the point to maximize the error index on the boundary of the convex hull. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated in a numerical example using the eleven-bar truss structure.

Yoshikawa, N.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Design Methodology and its Application to the Design of an Umbilical Retract Mechanism

A lot has been learned from past experience with structural and machine element failures. The understanding of failure modes and the application of an appropriate design analysis method can lead to improved structural and machine element safety as well as serviceability. To apply Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM), all uncertainties are modeled as random variables with selected distribution types, means, and standard deviations. It is quite difficult to achieve a robust design without considering the randomness of the design parameters which is the case in the use of the Deterministic Design Approach. The US Navy has a fleet of submarine-launched ballistic missiles. An umbilical plug joins the missile to the submarine in order to provide electrical and cooling water connections. As the missile leaves the submarine, an umbilical retract mechanism retracts the umbilical plug clear of the advancing missile after disengagement during launch and retrains the plug in the retracted position. The design of the current retract mechanism in use was based on the deterministic approach which puts emphasis on factor of safety. A new umbilical retract mechanism that is simpler in design, lighter in weight, more reliable, easier to adjust, and more cost effective has become desirable since this will increase the performance and efficiency of the system. This paper reports on a recent project performed at Tennessee State University for the US Navy that involved the application of PDM to the design of an umbilical retract mechanism. This paper demonstrates how the use of PDM lead to the minimization of weight and cost, and the maximization of reliability and performance.

Onyebueke, Landon↗
NASA NTRS2004

Mars Exploration Rovers Landing Dispersion Analysis

Landing dispersion estimates for the Mars Exploration Rover missions were key elements in the site targeting process and in the evaluation of landing risk. This paper addresses the process and results of the landing dispersion analyses performed for both Spirit and Opportunity. The several contributors to landing dispersions (navigation and atmospheric uncertainties, spacecraft modeling, winds, and margins) are discussed, as are the analysis tools used. JPL's MarsLS program, a MATLAB-based landing dispersion visualization and statistical analysis tool, was used to calculate the probability of landing within hazardous areas. By convolving this with the probability of landing within flight system limits (in-spec landing) for each hazard area, a single overall measure of landing risk was calculated for each landing ellipse. In-spec probability contours were also generated, allowing a more synoptic view of site risks, illustrating the sensitivity to changes in landing location, and quantifying the possible consequences of anomalies such as incomplete maneuvers. Data and products required to support these analyses are described, including the landing footprints calculated by NASA Langley's POST program and JPL's AEPL program, cartographically registered base maps and hazard maps, and flight system estimates of in-spec landing probabilities for each hazard terrain type. Various factors encountered during operations, including evolving navigation estimates and changing atmospheric models, are discussed and final landing points are compared with approach estimates.

Knocke, Philip C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A Robust Control Design Framework for Substructure Models

A framework for designing control systems directly from substructure models and uncertainties is proposed. The technique is based on combining a set of substructure robust control problems by an interface stiffness matrix which appears as a constant gain feedback. Variations of uncertainties in the interface stiffness are treated as a parametric uncertainty. It is shown that multivariable robust control can be applied to generate centralized or decentralized controllers that guarantee performance with respect to uncertainties in the interface stiffness, reduced component modes and external disturbances. The technique is particularly suited for large, complex, and weakly coupled flexible structures.

Lim, Kyong B.↗
NASA NTRS2005

V and V of ISHM Software for Space Exploration

NASA has established a far-reaching and long-term program for robotic and manned exploration of the solar system, beginning with missions to the moon and Mars. The Crew Transportation System (CTS), a key system for space exploration, imposes four requirements' that ISHM addresses. These requirements have a wide range of implications for V&V and certification of ISHM. There is a range of time-criticality for ISHM actions, from prognostication, which is often (but not always) non-time-critical, to time-critical state estimation and system management under off-nominal emergency conditions. These are externally imposed requirements on ISHM that are subject to V&V. - In addition, a range of techniques are needed to implement an ISHM. The approaches to ISHM are described elsewhere. These approaches range from well-understood algorithms for low-level data analysis, validation and reporting, to AI techniques for state estimation and planning. The range of techniques, and specifically the use of AI techniques such as reasoning under uncertainty and mission planning (and re-planning), implies that several V&V approaches may be required. Depending on the ISHM architecture, traditional testing approaches may be adequate for some ISHM functionality. The AI-based approaches to reasoning under uncertainty, model-based reasoning, and planning share characteristics typical of other complex software systems, but they also have characteristics that set them apart and challenge standard V&V techniques. The range of possible solutions to the overall ISHM problem impose internal challenges to V&V. The V&V challenges increase when hard real-time constraints are imposed for time-critical functionality. For example, there is an external requirement that impending catastrophic failure of the Launch Vehicle (LV) at launch time be detected and life-saving action be taken within two seconds. In this paper we outline the challenges for ISHM V&V, existing approaches and analogs in other software application areas, and possible new approaches to the V&V challenges for space exploration ISHM.

Markosian, Lawrence↗
NASA NTRS2006

Crash Certification by Analysis - Are We There Yet?

This paper addresses the issue of crash certification by analysis. This broad topic encompasses many ancillary issues including model validation procedures, uncertainty in test data and analysis models, probabilistic techniques for test-analysis correlation, verification of the mathematical formulation, and establishment of appropriate qualification requirements. This paper will focus on certification requirements for crashworthiness of military helicopters; capabilities of the current analysis codes used for crash modeling and simulation, including some examples of simulations from the literature to illustrate the current approach to model validation; and future directions needed to achieve "crash certification by analysis."

Jackson, Karen E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Blurring the Inputs: A Natural Language Approach to Sensitivity Analysis

To document model parameter uncertainties and to automate sensitivity analyses for numerical simulation codes, a natural-language-based method to specify tolerances has been developed. With this new method, uncertainties are expressed in a natural manner, i.e., as one would on an engineering drawing, namely, 5.25 +/- 0.01. This approach is robust and readily adapted to various application domains because it does not rely on parsing the particular structure of input file formats. Instead, tolerances of a standard format are added to existing fields within an input file. As a demonstration of the power of this simple, natural language approach, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis is performed for three disparate simulation codes: fluid dynamics (LAURA), radiation (HARA), and ablation (FIAT). Effort required to harness each code for sensitivity analysis was recorded to demonstrate the generality and flexibility of this new approach.

Kleb, William L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Design and Field-of-View Calibration of 114-660-GHz Optics of the Earth Observing System Microwave Limb Sounder

This paper describes the optics design and field-of view (FOV) calibration for five radiometers covering 114-660 GHz which share a common antenna in the Microwave Limb Sounder instrument on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite. Details of near-field pattern measurements are presented. Estimated systematic scaling uncertainties (3/spl sigma/) on calibrated limb emissions, due to FOV calibration uncertainties, are below 0.4%. 3/spl sigma/ uncertainties in beamwidth and relative pointing of radiometer boresights are 0.006A(deg) and 0.003A(deg) , respectively. The uncertainty in modeled instrument response, due to the scan dependence of FOV patterns, is less than +/- 0.24 K equivalent blackbody temperature. Refinements to the calibration using in-flight data are presented.

Calibration↗
NASA NTRS2007

Reactive Nitrogen Distribution and Partitioning in the North American Troposphere and Lowermost Stratosphere

A comprehensive group of reactive nitrogen species (NO, NO2, HNO3, HO2NO2, PANs, alkyl nitrates, and aerosol-NO3) were measured in the troposphere and lowermost stratosphere over North America and the Atlantic during July/August 2004 (INTEX-A) from the NASA DC-8 platform (0.1-12 km). Less reactive nitrogen species (HCN and CH3CN), that are also unique tracers of biomass combustion, were also measured along with a host of other gaseous (CO, VOC, OVOC, halocarbon) and aerosol tracers. Clean background air as well as air with influences from biogenic emissions, anthropogenic pollution, biomass combustion, and stratosphere was sampled both over continental U. S., Atlantic and Pacific. The North American upper troposphere was found to be greatly influenced by both lightning NO(x) and surface pollution lofted via convection and contained elevated concentrations of PAN, ozone, hydrocarbons, and NO(x). Under polluted conditions PAN was a dominant carrier of reactive nitrogen in the upper troposphere while nitric acid dominated in the lower troposphere. Peroxynitric acid (HO2NO2) was present in sizable concentrations always peaking at around 8 km. Aerosol nitrate appeared to be mostly contained in large soil based particles in the lower troposphere. Plumes from Alaskan fires contained large amounts of PAN and very little enhancement in ozone. Observational data suggest that lightning was a far greater contributor to NO(x) in the upper troposphere than previously believed. NO(x) and NO(y) reservoir appeared to be in steady state only in the middle troposphere where NO(x)/NO(y) was independent of air mass age. A first comparison of observed data with simulations from four 3-D models shows significant differences between observations and models as well as among models. These uncertainties likely propagate themselves in satellites derived NOx data. Observed data are interpreted to suggest that soil sinks of HCN/CH3CN are at best very small. We investigate the partitioning and interplay of the reactive nitrogen species within characteristic air masses and further examine their role in ozone formation.

Singh, H. B.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

There is a wealth of cosmological information encoded in the spatial power spectrum of temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background! Experiments designed to map the microwave sky are returning a flood of data (time streams of instrument response as a beam is swept over the sky) at several different frequencies (from 30 to 900 GHz), all with different resolutions and noise properties. The resulting analysis challenge is to estimate, and quantify our uncertainty in, the spatial power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background given the complexities of "missing data", foreground emission, and complicated instrumental noise. Bayesian formulation of this problem allows consistent treatment of many complexities including complicated instrumental noise and foregrounds, and can be numerically implemented with Gibbs sampling. Gibbs sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for low-resolution (as demonstrated on WMAP 1 and 3 year temperature and polarization data). Continuing development for Planck - the goal is to exploit the unique capabilities of Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters.

methods - statistical↗
NASA NTRS2009

Reliability Analysis of Systems Subject to First-Passage Failure

An obvious goal of reliability analysis is the avoidance of system failure. However, it is generally recognized that it is often not feasible to design a practical or useful system for which failure is impossible. Thus it is necessary to use techniques that estimate the likelihood of failure based on modeling the uncertainty about such items as the demands on and capacities of various elements in the system. This usually involves the use of probability theory, and a design is considered acceptable if it has a sufficiently small probability of failure. This report contains findings of analyses of systems subject to first-passage failure.

Lutes, Loren D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in observing the small but critical climate change signals. CLARREO is the recommended attack on this challenge, and builds on the last decade of climate observation advances in the Earth Observing System as well as metrological advances at NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other standards laboratories.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Algorithm for Autonomous Landing

Because of their small size, high maneuverability, and easy deployment, micro aerial vehicles (MAVs) are used for a wide variety of both civilian and military missions. One of their current drawbacks is the vast array of sensors (such as GPS, altimeter, radar, and the like) required to make a landing. Due to the MAV s small payload size, this is a major concern. Replacing the imaging sensors with a single monocular camera is sufficient to land a MAV. By applying optical flow algorithms to images obtained from the camera, time-to-collision can be measured. This is a measurement of position and velocity (but not of absolute distance), and can avoid obstacles as well as facilitate a landing on a flat surface given a set of initial conditions. The key to this approach is to calculate time-to-collision based on some image on the ground. By holding the angular velocity constant, horizontal speed decreases linearly with the height, resulting in a smooth landing. Mathematical proofs show that even with actuator saturation or modeling/ measurement uncertainties, MAVs can land safely. Landings of this nature may have a higher velocity than is desirable, but this can be compensated for by a cushioning or dampening system, or by using a system of legs to grab onto a surface. Such a monocular camera system can increase vehicle payload size (or correspondingly reduce vehicle size), increase speed of descent, and guarantee a safe landing by directly correlating speed to height from the ground.

Kuwata, Yoshiaki↗
NASA NTRS2010

CLARREO Cornerstone of the Earth Observing System: Measuring Decadal Change Through Accurate Emitted Infrared and Reflected Solar Spectra and Radio Occultation

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is one of four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC Decadal Survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to provide accurate, broadly acknowledged climate records that are used to enable validated long-term climate projections that become the foundation for informed decisions on mitigation and adaptation policies that address the effects of climate change on society. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through rigorous SI traceable decadal change observations that are sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. These same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. For the first time CLARREO will make highly accurate, global, SI-traceable decadal change observations sensitive to the most critical, but least understood, climate forcings, responses, and feedbacks. The CLARREO breakthrough is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. The required accuracy levels are determined so that climate trend signals can be detected against a background of naturally occurring variability. Climate system natural variability therefore determines what level of accuracy is overkill, and what level is critical to obtain. In this sense, the CLARREO mission requirements are considered optimal from a science value perspective. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties associated with instrument calibration, satellite orbit sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most space missions, the CLARREO requirements are driven not by the instantaneous accuracy of the measurements, but by accuracy in the large time/space scale averages that are key to understanding decadal changes.

Sandford, Stephen P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Design Considerations for a Launch Vehicle Development Flight Instrumentation System

When embarking into the design of a new launch vehicle, engineering models of expected vehicle performance are always generated. While many models are well established and understood, some models contain design features that are only marginally known. Unfortunately, these analytical models produce uncertainties in design margins. The best way to answer these analytical issues is with vehicle level testing. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration respond to these uncertainties by using a vehicle level system called the Development Flight Instrumentation, or DFI. This DFI system can be simple to implement, with only a few measurements, or it may be a sophisticated system with hundreds of measurement and video, without a recording capability. From experience with DFI systems, DFI never goes away. The system is renamed and allowed to continue, in most cases. Proper system design can aid the transition to future data requirements. This paper will discuss design features that need to be considered when developing a DFI system for a launch vehicle. It will briefly review the data acquisition units, sensors, multiplexers and recorders, telemetry components and harnessing. It will present a reasonable set of requirements which should be implemented in the beginning of the program in order to start the design. It will discuss a simplistic DFI architecture that could be the basis for the next NASA launch vehicle. This will be followed by a discussion of the "experiences gained" from a past DFI system implementation, such as the very successful Ares I-X test flight. Application of these design considerations may not work for every situation, but they may direct a path toward success or at least make one pause and ask the right questions.

Johnson, Martin L.↗