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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The Prediction Model of Risk Factors for COVID-19 Developing into Severe Illness Based on 1046 Patients with COVID-19

This study analyzed the risk factors for patients with COVID-19 developing severe illnesses and explored the value of applying the logistic model combined with ROC curve analysis to predict the risk of severe illnesses at COVID-19 patients’ admissions. The clinical data of 1046 COVID-19 patients admitted to a designated hospital in a certain city from July to September 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, the clinical characteristics of the patients were collected, and a multivariate unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for severe illnesses in COVID-19 patients during hospitalization. Based on the analysis results, a prediction model for severe conditions and the ROC curve were constructed, and the predictive value of the model was assessed. Logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR = 3.257, 95% CI 10.466–18.584), complications with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR = 7.337, 95% CI 0.227–87.021), cough (OR = 5517, 95% CI 0.258–65.024), and venous thrombosis (OR = 7322, 95% CI 0.278–95.020) were risk factors for COVID-19 patients developing severe conditions during hospitalization. When complications were not taken into consideration, COVID-19 patients’ ages, number of diseases, and underlying diseases were risk factors influencing the development of severe illnesses. The ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC that predicted the severity of COVID-19 patients at admission was 0.943, the optimal threshold was −3.24, and the specificity was 0.824, while the sensitivity was 0.827. The changes in the condition of severe COVID-19 patients are related to many factors such as age, clinical symptoms, and underlying diseases. This study has a certain value in predicting COVID-19 patients that develop from mild to severe conditions, and this prediction model is a useful tool in the quick prediction of the changes in patients’ conditions and providing early intervention for those with risk factors.

Lian, Zhichuang↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of the risk of perchlorate exposure in a population of late-gestation pregnant women in the United States: Application of probabilistic biologically-based dose response modeling

The risk of ubiquitous perchlorate exposure and the dose-response on thyroid hormone levels in pregnant women in the United States (U.S.) have yet to be characterized. In the current work, we integrated a previously developed perchlorate submodel into a recently developed population-based pregnancy model to predict reductions in maternal serum free thyroxine (fT4) levels for late-gestation pregnant women in the U.S. Our findings indicated no significant difference in geometric mean estimates of fT4 when perchlorate exposure from food only was compared to no perchlorate exposure. The reduction in maternal fT4 levels reached statistical significance when an added contribution from drinking water (i.e., 15 μg/L, 20 μg/L, or 24.5 μg/L) was assumed in addition to the 90th percentile of food intake for pregnant women (0.198 μg/kg/day). We determined that a daily intake of 0.45 to 0.50 μg/kg/day of perchlorate was necessary to produce results that were significantly different than those obtained from no perchlorate exposure. Adjusting for this food intake dose, the relative source contribution of perchlorate from drinking water (or other non-dietary sources) was estimated to range from 0.25–0.3 μg/kg/day. Assuming a drinking water intake rate of 0.033 L/kg/day, the drinking water concentration allowance for perchlorate equates to 7.6–9.2 μg/L. In summary, we have demonstrated the utility of a probabilistic biologically-based dose-response model for perchlorate risk assessment in a sensitive life-stage at a population level; however, there is a need for continued monitoring in regions of the U.S. where perchlorate exposure may be higher. - Highlights: • Probabilistic risk assessment for perchlorate in U.S. pregnant women was conducted. • No significant change in maternal fT4 predicted due to perchlorate from food alone. • Drinking water concentration allowance for perchlorate estimated as 7.6–9.2 μg/L.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Detailed Hydrodynamic Feasibility Assessment for Leque Island and Zis a Ba Restoration Projects

Numerous restoration projects are underway in Puget Sound, Washington, USA with the goal of re-establishing intertidal wetlands that were historically lost due to dike construction for flood protection and agricultural development. One such effort is the restoration effort within the Stillaguamish Delta, benefitting from the cumulative effects from the Leque Island and zis a ba restoration projects. The preferred restoration design calls for the removal of perimeter dikes at the two sites and the creation of tidal channels to facilitate the drainage of tidal flows. A 3-D high-resolution unstructured-grid coastal ocean model based on FVCOM was developed to evaluate the hydrodynamic response of the estuary to restoration alternatives. A series of hydrodynamic modeling simulations were then performed to quantify the hydrodynamic response of the nearshore restoration project, such as periodic inundation, suitable currents, and desired habitat/salinity levels. Sediment impacts were also examined, including the potential for excessive erosion or sedimentation requiring maintenance. Simulation results indicate that the preferred alternative scenario provides the desired estuarine response, which is consistent with the planned design. A decrease in velocities and bed shear in the main river channels was noted for the restored condition associated with the increased inundation of tidal flat area and reduced tidal flows through the main channels. High bed shear near the restored tidal channel entrances indicates that the inlets may evolve in size until equilibrium is established.

hydrodynamics, feasibility assessments, nearshore ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Dynamic Data Reconciliation and Validation of a Dynamic Model for Solvent-Based CO 2 Capture Using Pilot-Plant Data

This paper is focused on the development and validation of a dynamic model for an MEA-based CO 2 capture unit. Starting with a rigorous steady-state process model, the dynamic model is developed in Aspen Plus Dynamics ® using a modified Murphree-efficiency approach and is validated using dynamic data collected from the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) in Wilsonville, Alabama. The dynamic test runs were designed with due consideration of process excitation and process nonlinearities constrained by the available time to conduct the test runs and implement the experimental designs in the plant control system. The experimental data include solvent composition and loading. Since the experimental data were found to violate mass and energy balances, filtering algorithms coupled with dynamic data reconciliation techniques were used. Without adjusting any model parameters, the dynamic model satisfactorily predicted dynamic response of CO 2 capture due to step changes in the solvent flowrate, flue gas flowrate, and steam flowrates. Transient studies show that the process gain and time constants can considerably change depending on the direction of the disturbance or manipulated variables, indicating process nonlinearities. Due to a storage tank between the absorber and stripper, the time constant of the full plant can be considerably longer than the time constants of the absorber or stripper individually. Furthermore, impact of the control system on the process efficiency while following an optimal CO 2 capture schedule was also studied.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Phase space effects on fast ion distribution function modeling in tokamaks

Integrated simulations of tokamak discharges typically rely on classical physics to model energetic particle (EP) dynamics. However, there are numerous cases in which energetic particles can suffer additional transport that is not classical in nature. Examples include transport by applied 3D magnetic perturbations and, more notably, by plasma instabilities. Focusing on the effects of instabilities, ad-hoc models can empirically reproduce increased transport, but the choice of transport coefficients is usually somehow arbitrary. New approaches based on physics-based reduced models are being developed to address those issues in a simplified way, while retaining a more correct treatment of resonant wave-particle interactions. The kick model implemented in the tokamak transport code TRANSP is an example of such reduced models. It includes modifications of the EP distribution by instabilities in real and velocity space, retaining correlations between transport in energy and space typical of resonant EP transport. The relevance of EP phase space modifications by instabilities is first discussed in terms of predicted fast ion distribution. Results are compared with those from a simple, ad-hoc diffusive model. It is then shown that the phase-space resolved model can also provide additional insight into important issues such as internal consistency of the simulations and mode stability through the analysis of the power exchanged between energetic particles and the instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Prediction of Total Dissolved Gas Exchange at Hydropower Dams

Total dissolved gas (TDG) supersaturation in waters released at hydropower dams can cause gas bubble trauma in fisheries resulting in physical injuries and eyeball protrusion that can lead to mortality. Elevated TDG pressures in hydropower releases are generally caused by the entrainment of air in spillway releases and the subsequent exchange of atmospheric gasses into solution during passage through the stilling basin. The network of dams throughout the Columbia River Basin (CRB) are managed for irrigation, hydropower production, flood control, navigation, and fish passage that frequently result in both voluntary and involuntary spillway releases. These dam operations are constrained by state and federal water quality standards for TDG saturation which balance the benefits of spillway operations designed for Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed fisheries versus the degradation to water quality as defined by TDG saturation. In the 1970s, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), under the federal Clean Water Act (Section 303(d)), established a criterion not to exceed the TDG saturation level of 110% in order to protect freshwater and marine aquatic life. The states of Washington and Oregon have adopted special water quality standards for TDG saturation in the tailrace and forebays of hydropower facilities on the Columbia and Snake Rivers where spillway operations support fish passage objectives. The physical processes that affect TDG exchange at hydropower facilities have been studied throughout the CRB in site-specific studies and routine water quality monitoring programs. These data have been used to quantify the relationship between project operations, structural properties, and TDG exchange. These data have also been used to develop predictive models of TDG exchange to support real-time TDG management decisions. These empirically based predictive models have been developed for specific projects and account for both the fate of spillway and powerhouse flows in the tailrace channel and resultant exchange in route to the next downstream dam. Currently, there exists a need to summarize the general finding from operational and structural TDG abatement programs conducted throughout the CRB and for the development of a generalized prediction model that pools data collected at multiple projects with similar structural attributes. A generalized TDG exchange model can be tuned to specific projects and coupled with water regulation models to allow the formulation of optimal daily water regulation schedules subject to water quality constraints for TDG supersaturation. A generalized TDG exchange model can also be applied to other hydropower dams that affect TDG pressures in tailraces and can be used to develop alternative operational and structural measures to minimize TDG generation. It is proposed to develop a methodology for predicting TDG levels downstream of hydropower facilities with similar structural properties as a function of a set of variables that affect TDG exchange; such as tailwater depth, spill discharge and pattern, project head, and entrainment of powerhouse releases. TDG data from hydropower facilities located throughout the northwest region of the United States will be used to identify relationships between TDG exchange and relevant dependent variables. Data analysis and regression techniques will be used to develop predictive TDG exchange expressions for various structural categories.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gas-Cooled High-Temperature Pebble-Bed Reactor Reference Plant Model Updates

This work presents the latest improvements to, and investigations performed with, the pebble-bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (PB-HTGR) reference plant models for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These models serve as the foundation for the future development of detailed design evaluation models based on license applications. The reference plant models have been developed with the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, which is the code suite proposed for non-light-water reactor systems safety analysis. It incorporates various simulation tools developed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, including the Griffin code for reactor physics, the Pronghorn and SAM codes for core thermal fluids, the BISON code for solid conduction and fuel performance, and the SAM code for system analysis. The primary objective of the work that was performed was to assess BlueCRAB’s level of readiness for modeling a PB-HTGR. To do so, we first developed numerical models in BlueCRAB that include the key physics for this technology to ensure an adequate level of fidelity for modeling PB-HTGR core performance and for performing multiphysics simulations for equilibrium core conditions and different accident scenarios. Then we simulated transient scenarios, including depressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling accidents, over-cooling, and control rod withdrawal events with delayed and prompt supercritical reactivity insertions. The analysis in this report includes comparisons of the 2D thermal fluid porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM, and comparisons of coupled SAM/Griffin/SAM and coupled Pronghorn/Griffin for depressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling, over-cooling, and control rod withdrawal events. In addition, we compare 3D, 2D, and 0D/PKE neutronic models for the two control rod withdrawal scenarios with coupled Pronghorn/Griffin. The comparisons show that the BlueCRAB models lead to physically intuitive solutions for the scenarios examined. The changes in the various scalar and vector fields, such as neutron flux, power, temperature, density, pressure, and velocity, are within the expected ranges, and their distributions can be explained by the system response of the transients and the geometric and material variations. Several comparisons suggest that the porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM can lead to similar solutions, even though they are based on different methodologies. This work further highlights the need for flexible tools with various levels of fidelity to cover the breadth and depth of needs that may arise in future technical evaluations of the PB-HTGR. We believe that the BlueCRAB capabilities will be a significant asset for confirmatory analyses in order to resolve important safety questions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Large Scale DD Simulation Results for Crystal Plasticity Parameters in Fe-Cr And Fe-Ni Systems

The development of viable nuclear energy source depends on ensuring structural materials integrity. Structural materials in nuclear reactors will operate in harsh radiation conditions coupled with high level hydrogen and helium production, as well as formation of high density of point defects and defect clusters, and thus will experience severe degradation of mechanical properties. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to develop a capability that predicts aging behavior and in-service lifetime of nuclear reactor components and, thus provide an instrumental tool for tailoring materials design and development for application in future nuclear reactor technologies. Towards this end goal, the long term effort is to develop a physically based multiscale modeling hierarchy, validated and verified, to address outstanding questions regarding the effects of irradiation on materials microstructure and mechanical properties during extended service in the fission and fusion environments. The focus of the current investigation is on modern steels for use in nuclear reactors including high strength ferritic-martensitic steels (Fe-Cr-Ni alloys). The effort is to develop a predicative capability for the influence of irradiation on mechanical behavior. Irradiation hardening is related to structural information crossing different length scales, such as composition, dislocation, and crystal orientation distribution. To predict effective hardening, the influence factors along different length scales should be considered. Therefore, a hierarchical upscaling methodology is implemented in this work in which relevant information is passed between models at three scales, namely, from molecular dynamics to dislocation dynamics to dislocation-based crystal plasticity. The molecular dynamics (MD) was used to predict the dislocation mobility in body centered cubic (bcc) Fe and its Ni and Cr alloys. The results are then passed on to dislocation dynamics to predict the critical resolved shear stress (CRSS) from the evolution of local dislocation and defects. In this report the focus is on the results obtained from large scale dislocation dynamics simulations. The effect of defect density, materials structure was investigated, and evolution laws are obtained. These results will form the bases for the development of evolution and hardening laws for a dislocation-based crystal plasticity framework. The hierarchical upscaling method being developed in this project can provide a guidance tool to evaluate performance of structural materials for next-generation nuclear reactors. Combined with other tools developed in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the models developed will have more impact in improving the reliability of current reactors and affordability of new reactors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2011

Development of neural network convection parameterizations for climate and NWP models using Cloud Resolving Model simulations

A novel approach based on the neural network (NN) technique is formulated and used for development of a NN ensemble stochastic convection parameterization for climate models. This fast parameterization is built based on data from Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) simulations initialized with and driven by the TOGA-COARE data available for the 4-month winter season from November 1992 to February 1993. CRM simulated data were averaged and projected onto the GCM space of atmospheric states to implicitly define a stochastic convection parameterization. This parameterization is emulated using an ensemble of neural networks (NNs). The developed NNs are trained and tested. The inherent uncertainty of the stochastic convection parameterization derived following this approach is estimated. The newly developed NN convection parameterization has been tested in a diagnostic mode of NCAR CAM. It produced reasonable and promising climate simulations for the TOGA-COARE winter. This paper is devoted to discussion of the concept, methodology, initial results,and the major challenges of development of NN convection parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction (NWR) models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Development and assessment of a physics-based simulation model to investigate residential PM 2.5 infiltration across the US housing stock

The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Population Impact Assessment Modeling Framework (PIAMF) was expanded here to enable determination of indoor PM 2.5 concentrations and exposures in a set of 50,000 homes representing the US housing stock. A mass-balance model is used to calculate time-dependent pollutant concentrations within each home. The model includes size- and species-dependent removal mechanisms. The particle model was applied to the housing samples of the Relationship of Indoor, Outdoor, and Personal Air (RIOPA) and The Detroit Exposure and Aerosol Research Study (DEARS) studies to compare model- and measurement-based estimates of indoor PM 2.5 of outdoor origin. Model-derived distributions of infiltration factors (ratio of indoor PM 2.5 of outdoor origin to outdoor PM 2.5 ) are compared to measurement-based distributions obtained in studies conducted in 11 US cities.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Simultaneous Dependence of the Earthquake-Size Distribution on Faulting Style and Depth

We analyze two high-quality Southern Californian earthquake catalogues, one with focal mechanisms, to statistically model and test for dependencies of the earthquake-size distribution, the b values, on both faulting style and depth. In our null hypothesis, b is assumed constant. We then develop and calibrate one model based only on faulting style, another based only on depth dependence and two models that assume a simultaneous dependence on both parameters. We develop a new maximum-likelihood estimator corrected for the degrees of freedom to assess models' performances. Our results show that all models significantly reject the null hypothesis. The best performing is the one that simultaneously takes account of depth and faulting style. Our results suggest that differential stress variations in the Earth's crust systematically influence b values and that this variability should be considered for contemporary seismic hazard studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Performance of a Nonlinear Control Strategy to Regulate Temperature of a High-Temperature Solar Reactor

Abstract Despite the significant potential of solar thermochemical process technology for storing solar energy as solid-state solar fuel, several challenges have made its industrial application difficult. It is important to note that solar energy has a transient nature that causes instability and reduces process efficiency. Therefore, it is crucial to implement a robust control system to regulate the process temperature and tackle the shortage of incoming solar energy during cloudy weather. In our previous works, different model-based control strategies were developed namely a proportional integral derivative controller (PID) with gain scheduling and adaptive model predictive control (MPC). These methods were tested numerically to regulate the temperature inside a high-temperature tubular solar reactor. In this work, the proposed control strategies were experimentally tested under various operation conditions. The controllers were challenged to track different setpoints (500 °C, 1000 °C, and 1450 °C) with different amounts of gas/particle flowrates. Additionally, the flow controller was tested to regulate the reactor temperature under a cloudy weather scenario. The ultimate goal was to produce 5 kg of reduced solar fuel magnesium manganese oxide (MgMn2O4) successfully, and the controllers were able to track the required process temperature and reject disturbances despite the system's strong nonlinearity. The experimental results showed a maximum error in the temperature setpoint of less than 0.5% (6 °C), and the MPC controller demonstrated superior performance in reducing the control effort and rejecting disturbances.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling of Aircraft Measurements of Ice Crystal Concentration in the Arctic and a Parameterization for Mixed-Phase Cloud

Abstract In this study, two parameterizations of ice nucleation rate on dust particles are used in a parcel model to simulate aircraft measurements of ice crystal number concentration Ni in the Arctic. The parcel model has detailed microphysics for droplet and ice nucleation, growth, and evaporation with prescribed vertical air velocities. Three dynamic regimes are considered, including large-scale ascent, cloud-top generating cells, and their combination. With observed meteorological conditions and aerosol concentrations, the parcel model predicts the number concentrations of size-resolved ice crystals, which may be compared to aircraft measurements. Model results show rapid changes with height/time in relative humidity, Ni, and thermodynamic phase partitioning, which is not resolved in current climate and weather forecasting models. Parameterizations for ice number and nucleation rate in mixed-phase stratus clouds are thus developed based on the parcel model results to represent the time-integrated effect of some microphysical processes in large-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The development of yield-based sooting tendency measurements and modeling to enable advanced combustion fuels

This project produced clear evidence that biofuels can reduce particulate emissions from road vehicles compared with petroleum-derived fuels. It also produced fundamental knowledge that can be used to select fuel compositions and engine designs that will maximize this benefit. This information has been disseminated through more than 20 peer-reviewed publications, more than 30 conference presentations, and 5 freely available internet databases and web tools. This project also provided educational opportunities to 17 students at the high school, undergraduate, and graduate levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗