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At least 649 records · Page 36

The utility of Bayesian data reconciliation for separations

Data reconciliation methods for separation processes typically rely on classical statistical approaches to generate estimates of true mass flow rates from measurements. Knowledge regarding the uncertainty of these estimates has value in decision making, but is often not acquired. Bayesian approaches intrinsically quantify uncertainty; however, literature for Bayesian data reconciliation of separation processes is scarce. This publication outlines two Bayesian data reconciliation models and provides details for how the models were implemented for the BayesMassBal (V 1.0.0) software package written in R. To demonstrate the advantages of this approach for data reconciliation, the models were first applied to simulated data and then compared to a classical model through a Monte Carlo experiment. In this example, the Bayesian models were found to provide more accurate estimates of the simulated data, while also providing quantitative information on the estimate uncertainty. To demonstrate the use of the technique in a practical problem, the models were also applied to real data collected from a pilot-scale rare earth solvent extraction process. Here, this publication provides a small window into how Bayesian methods can be used for data reconciliation, but findings suggest Bayesian data reconciliation models for separation processes have distinct advantages over classical alternatives.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Modeling Interactive Effects of Manganese Bioavailability, Nitrogen Deposition, and Warming on Soil Carbon Storage

Manganese (Mn) is a redox–active micronutrient that has been shown to accelerate plant litter decomposition; however, the effect of Mn–promoted decomposition on soil C storage is unclear. We present a novel biogeochemical model simulating how Mn bioavailability influences soil organic C (SOC) stocks in a soil profile (<50 cm) within a temperate forest. In our model, foliar Mn increased in response to increasing soluble Mn released through Mn–oxide (birnessite) dissolution in mineral soil layers. The ensuing Mn enrichment in leaf litter redistributed Mn to the surface forest floor layer, promoted enzymatic oxidation of lignin, and decreased SOC stocks. Total SOC loss was partially mitigated by accumulation of lignin–oxidation products as mineral–associated organic C. We also explored how Mn–driven changes to C storage interacted with effects of N deposition and warming. Nitrogen enrichment inhibited Mn–dependent lignin degradation, increasing SOC stocks and weakening their dependence on Mn bioavailability. Warming stimulated decomposition and reduced C stocks but was less effective at low Mn bioavailability. Our model results suggest that SOC stocks are sensitive to Mn bioavailability because increased plant uptake redistributes Mn to surface soils where it can enhance litter decomposition. Finally, based on our simulations, we predict that Mn becomes limiting to litter decomposition where Mn is poorly soluble. Depletion of bioavailable Mn or other cofactors that are critical to decomposition could limit the response of organic C stocks to warming over time, but quantitative projections of the role of Mn bioavailability in regulating decomposition requires additional measurements to constrain model uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An x-ray penumbral imager for measurements of electron–temperature profiles in inertial confinement fusion implosions at OMEGA

Hot-spot shape and electron temperature (T e ) are key performance metrics used to assess the efficiency of converting shell kinetic energy into hot-spot thermal energy in inertial confinement fusion implosions. X-ray penumbral imaging offers a means to diagnose hot-spot shape and T e , where the latter can be used as a surrogate measure of the ion temperature (T i ) in sufficiently equilibrated hot spots. We have implemented a new x-ray penumbral imager on OMEGA. We demonstrate minimal line-of-sight variations in the inferred T e for a set of implosions. Furthermore, we demonstrate spatially resolved T e measurements with an average uncertainty of 10% with 6 μm spatial resolution.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Precision Tests of the Nonlinear Mode Coupling of Anisotropic Flow via High-Energy Collisions of Isobars

Valuable information on dynamics of expanding fluids can be inferred from the response of such systems to perturbations in their initial geometry. We apply this technique in high-energy 96 Ru+ 96 Ru and 96 Zr+ 96 Zr collisions to scrutinize the expansion dynamics of the quark-gluon plasma, where the initial geometry perturbations are sourced by the differences in deformations and radial profiles between 96 Ru and 96 Zr, and the collective response is captured by the change in anisotropic flow V n between the two collision systems. Using a transport model, we analyze how the nonlinear coupling between lower-order flow harmonics V 2 and V 3 to the higher-order flow harmonics V 4 and V 5 , expected to scale as V 4 NL = χ 4 V 2 2 and V 5NL = χ 5 V 2 V 3 , gets modified as one moves from 96 Ru+ 96 Ru to 96 Zr+ 96 Zr systems. We find that these scaling relations are valid to high precision: variations of order 20% in V 4NL and V 5NL due to differences in quadrupole deformation, octupole deformation, and nuclear skin modify χ 4 and χ 5 by about 1–2%. Percent-level deviations are however larger than the expected experimental uncertainties and could be measured. Therefore, collisions of isobars with different nuclear structures are a unique tool to isolate subtle nonlinear effects in the expansion of the quark-gluon plasma that would be otherwise impossible to access in a single collision system.

Physics↗

High-precision vapor pressure measurement apparatus with facile and inexpensive construction

This study describes an apparatus for high-precision variable temperature measurement of liquid vapor pressure. The apparatus can be used to measure the vapor pressure using only 0.5 ml of the liquid sample. To evaluate the accuracy of the device measurement, water and 2-propanol are utilized as standard liquids, and their vapor pressure is measured with a maximum uncertainty of ~1%. This apparatus can be replicated using inexpensive and commonly used laboratory fittings and fixtures, making it an indispensable tool for synthetic chemists and chemical engineers involved in the iterative synthesis of compounds, targeting different vapor–liquid equilibrium regimes.

Engineering↗

Towards a quantum realization of the ampere using single-electron resolution Skipper-CCDs

This paper presents a proof-of-concept demonstration of the Skipper-charge coupled device (CCD), a sensor with single-electron counting capability, as a promising technology for implementing an electron-pump-based current source. Relying on its single-electron resolution and built-in charge sensing, it allows self-calibration of the charge packets. This article presents an initial discussion of the uncertainty in the charge measurement and achievable currents levels with this technology. Here, we report experimental results that illustrate the key functionalities in manipulating both small and large electron charge packets, including a comparison of the charge generated, self-measured, and drained by the sensor against measurements from an electrometer. These results were obtained using a standard sensor and readout electronics without specific optimizations for this application. The objective is to explore the potential of Skipper-CCD for realizing an electron-based current source.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Quantifying rupture characteristics of microearthquakes in the Parkfield Area using a high-resolution borehole network

It is well known that large earthquakes often exhibit significant rupture complexity such as well separated subevents. With improved recording and data processing techniques, small earthquakes have been found to exhibit rupture complexity as well. Studying these small earthquakes offers the opportunity to better understand the possible causes of rupture complexities. Specifically, if they are random or are related to fault properties. We examine microearthquakes (M < 3) in the Parkfield, California, area that are recorded by a high-resolution borehole network. We quantify earthquake complexity by the deviation of source time functions and source spectra from simple circular (omega-square) source models. We establish thresholds to declare complexity, and find that it can be detected in earthquakes larger than magnitude 2, with the best resolution above M2.5. Comparison between the two approaches reveals good agreement (>90 per cent), implying both methods are characterizing the same source complexity. For the two methods, 60–80 per cent (M 2.6–3) of the resolved events are complex depending on the method. The complex events we observe tend to cluster in areas of previously identified structural complexity; a larger fraction of the earthquakes exhibit complexity in the days following the M w 6 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Ignoring the complexity of these small events can introduce artefacts or add uncertainty to stress drop measurements. Focusing only on simple events however could lead to systematic bias, scaling artefacts and the lack of measurements of stress in structurally complex regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Novel approaches to determine B ± and B 0 meson production fractions

We propose novel methods to determine the ϒ ( 4 S ) → B + B − and ϒ ( 4 S ) → B 0 B ¯ 0 decay rates. The precision to which they and their ratio are known yields at present a limiting uncertainty around 2% in measurements of absolute B decay rates, and thus in a variety of applications, such as precision determinations of elements of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix and flavor-symmetry relations. The new methods we propose are based in one case on exploiting the ϒ ( 5 S ) datasets, in the other case on the different average number of charged tracks in B ± and B 0 decays. We estimate future sensitivities using these methods and discuss possible measurements of f d / f u at the (HL-)LHC. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Analysis of Neutral B -Meson Decays into Two Muons

Branching fraction and effective lifetime measurements of the rare decay B s 0 → μ + μ - and searches for the decays B 0 → μ + μ - and B s 0 → μ + μ - γ are reported using proton-proton collision data collected with the LHCb detector at center-of-mass energies of 7, 8, and 13 TeV, corresponding to a luminosity of 9 fb - 1 . The branching fraction B ( B s 0 → μ + μ - ) = ( 3.0 9 - 0.43 - 0.11 + 0.46 + 0.15 ) × 10 - 9 and the effective lifetime τ ( B s 0 → μ + μ - ) = 2.07 ± 0.29 ± 0.03 ps are measured, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. No significant signal for B 0 → μ + μ - and B s 0 → μ + μ - γ decays is found and upper limits B ( B 0 → μ + μ - ) < 2.6 × 10 - 10 and B ( B s 0 → μ + μ - γ ) < 2.0 × 10 - 9 at the 95% C.L. are determined, where the latter is limited to the range m μ μ > 4.9 GeV / c 2 . The results are in agreement with the standard model expectations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Observation of D + → η ′ μ + ν μ and First Experimental Study of D + → η ′ ℓ + ν ℓ Decay Dynamics

Using 20.3 fb − 1 of e + e − collision data collected at the center-of-mass energy 3.773 GeV with the BESIII detector, we report the first observation of the semileptonic decay D + → η ′ μ + ν μ with significance of 8.6 σ including systematic uncertainties, and an improved measurement of D + → η ′ e + ν e . The branching fractions of D + → η ′ μ + ν μ and D + → η ′ e + ν e are determined to be ( 1.92 ± 0.2 8 stat ± 0.0 8 syst ) × 10 − 4 and ( 1.79 ± 0.1 9 stat ± 0.0 7 syst ) × 10 − 4 , respectively. The ratio of the two branching fractions is determined to be R μ / e = 1.07 ± 0.1 9 stat ± 0.0 3 syst , which agrees with the theoretical expectation of lepton flavor universality within the standard model. From an analysis of the D + → η ′ ℓ + ν ℓ decay dynamics, the product of the hadronic form factor f + η ′ ( 0 ) and the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element | V c d | is measured for the first time, giving f + η ′ ( 0 ) | V c d | = ( 5.92 ± 0.5 6 stat ± 0.1 3 syst ) × 10 − 2 . The η − η ′ mixing angle in the quark flavor basis is determined to be ϕ P = ( 39.8 ± 0.8 stat ± 0.3 syst ) ° . Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Ablikim, M.↗

A Vision–based Robust $\mathcal{H}$ ∞ Gain Scheduling Longitudinal and Lateral Following Controller for Autonomous Vehicles on Urban Curved Roads

Implementing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) in congested and intricate urban traffic scenarios poses significant challenges. To address the frequent stop–and–go motions exhibited by autonomous vehicles (AVs) navigating urban roads with changes in curvature, we propose a vision–based robust $\mathcal{H}$ ∞ adaptive cruise control system (ACC) for longitudinal control, plus a lane keeping assist system (LKAS) for lateral control. For the vision-based ACC, a weighted probability objective function for the vehicle following behavior is formulated. We incorporate $\mathcal{H}$ ∞ performance and gain scheduling techniques to mitigate the impact of uncertainty in visual sensor measurements. Furthermore, the optimal time headway is scheduled based on the velocity to ensure traffic flow efficiency and safety during the vehicle following process. For the LKAS, we introduce a road curvature estimation method that integrates lane and vehicle dynamics information to obtain the lateral and heading offsets. Next, the design criterion of the observer–based robust gain scheduling lateral motion controller is established by linear matrix inequality (LMI). Here, a series of experiments conducted within a camera–in–loop platform validate the proposed method.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

TRUST-EABM End-of-Year Report: Release FY20

The Delivery Environments (DE) program work package Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) is designed to quantify and reduce the uncertainty associated with experimental testing and numerical simulation of large engineering assemblies to support the efficient and responsive development of future systems. Because engineering assemblies contain a large number of uncertainty sources, well-characterized testbeds must be designed to isolate individual uncertainty sources. Once quantified, uncertainty sources can be compared to direct research and development funding towards the largest sources driving behavior of interest. Quantified uncertainty may also be propagated through engineering simulations to determine quantitative confidence in simulation predictions and for comparison against uncertainty in the experimental measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating Surface Solar Irradiance Using Meteosat-8 Satellite for India and Surrounding Regions (2017-2019)

Using the Physical Solar Model, Version 3 (PSM V3), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory—in collaboration with the University of Wisconsin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Solar Consulting Services—produced modeled surface solar irradiance based on Meteosat-8 satellite cloud information. PSM V3 implements a physics-based radiative transfer approach to model surface solar irradiance using cloud properties processed from raw satellite data and ancillary data such as aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Further, the modeled surface solar irradiance was validated using 10 high-quality ground measurement data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The modeled data showed good correlation with the ground measurement, and the overall uncertainty is less than 35% for all validation locations. Because of the satellite viewing geometry, the Indian and European locations demonstrated higher uncertainties than the African locations, where the Meteosat-8 satellite has a more nadir viewing geometry. Further, instruction on how to access the data is provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Diamond Mott Polarimeter (CRADA Final Report)

The goals of this project are to show the feasibility of a diamond Mott polarimeter to collect the data needed to improve upon the world-record 0.61% uncertainty in spin polarization measured at 5 MeV, and quantify the performance of diamond targets for high precision and high current Mott polarimetry

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Thermophysical Property Measurements of HTM and CM (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this project is to gather thermophysical property data – specifically, thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity, and specific heat – of heat transfer media (HTMs) and containment materials (CMs) used in Topic Area 1 and 2A at high temperatures (>700°C). This goal was met by completing objectives such as qualifying high temperature measurement techniques, defining allowable uncertainty metrics, reporting properties in a public database, and providing ongoing support for prioritized materials. These are described in detail across three budget periods

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An Updated Simulation of the Booster Neutrino Beam

For accelerator neutrino experiments, an accurate prediction of the incoming neutrino flux is crucial for reducing uncertainties for all physics measurements. In this exciting period for the Short-Baseline Neutrino program at Fermilab, with far detector (ICARUS) already operating and the near detector (SBND) nearing operation, an updated flux model for the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) is presented. The BNB delivers 8 GeV protons to a beryllium target, subsequently producing neutrinos from the decay of the secondary beam of hadrons. A updated Monte-Carlo simulation of beam production in GEANT4 has been created, allowing predictions to be made for detectors with different baselines, offsets and sizes. This new simulation contains new features, such as a full neutrino ancestry to handle hadron production systematics with more precision, with a view to storing all resulting particles - including neutral mesons - from the proton-Beryllium scatter to allow the study of exotic BSM scenarios. Results are presented, with comparisons to the original flux simulated for the MiniBooNE experiment.

Paton, Josephine↗

Probabilistic Impact Assessment and Software Tool Requirements

This research project will address the most pressing uncertainties in modeling and measuring the electric power grid effects of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) and the E3 portion of nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The primary goal is to help decision-makers in the electric power sector have the knowledge and tools they need to most effectively mitigate GMD effects on the North American electric grid, with a secondary focus on EMP response. Primary tasks will involve comprehensive modeling,

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The DUNE Near Detector

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is an upcoming long-baseline neutrino experiment which will study neutrino oscillations. Neutrino oscillations will be detected at the DUNE Far Detector 1300 km away from the start of the beam at Fermilab. The DUNE Near Detector (ND) will be located on-site at Fermilab, and will be used to provide an initial characterization of the neutrino beam, as well as to constrain systematic uncertainties on neutrino oscillation measurements. The detector suite consists of a modular LArTPC (ND-LAr), a magnetized gaseous argon time projection chamber (ND-GAr) surrounded by an electromagnetic calorimeter, and the System for on-Axis Neutrino Detection (SAND), composed of a magnetized electromagnetic calorimeter and inner tracker. In these proceedings, these detectors and their physics goals will be discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗