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NASA NTRS2014

A Tailward Moving Current Sheet Normal Magnetic Field Front Followed by an Earthward Moving Dipolarization Front

A case study is presented using measurements from the Cluster spacecraft and ground-based magnetometers that show a substorm onset propagating from the inner to outer plasma sheet. On 3 October 2005, Cluster, traversing an ion-scale current sheet at the near-Earth plasma sheet, detected a sudden enhancement of Bz, which was immediately followed by a series of flux rope structures. Both the local Bz enhancement and flux ropes propagated tailward. Approximately 5 min later, another Bz enhancement, followed by a large density decrease, was observed to rapidly propagate earthward. Between the two Bz enhancements, a significant removal of magnetic flux occurred, possibly resulting from the tailward moving Bz enhancement and flux ropes. In our scenario, this flux removal caused the magnetotail to be globally stretched so that the thinnest sheet formed tailward of Cluster. The thinned current sheet facilitated magnetic reconnection that quickly evolved from plasma sheet to lobe and generated the later earthward moving dipolarization front (DF) followed by a reduction in density and entropy. Ground magnetograms located near the meridian of Cluster's magnetic foot points show two-step bay enhancements. The positive bay associated with the first Bz enhancement indicates that the substorm onset signatures propagated from the inner to the outer plasma sheet, consistent with the Cluster observation. The more intense bay features associated with the later DF are consistent with the earthward motion of the front. The event suggests that current disruption signatures that originated in the near-Earth current sheet propagated tailward, triggering or facilitating midtail reconnection, thereby preconditioning the magnetosphere for a later strong substorm enhancement.

Dipolarization Front↗

NASA NTRS2014

MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free-magnetic-energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the "Present MAG4" technique and each of three alternative techniques, called "McIntosh Active-Region Class," "Total Magnetic Flux," and "Next MAG4." We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major-flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique-performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4).

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1961

Note on Hydromagnetic Propagation and Geomagnetic Field Stability

In the adjoining letter, Dessler [1961] argues that the interface between the solar wind and the geomagnetic field is stable and cannot, therefore, generate hydromagnetic waves. According to our interpretation, his argument may be paraphrased as follows: He observes that, for many sudden commencement geomagnetic storms, surface magnetograms show no marked change in the level of disturbances from the period before the sudden commencement until well into the initial phase of the storm. He applies the attenuation factors calculated by Francis and Karplus [1960] to the measurements of the 1 cps component of the magnetic disturbances obtained at the surface. From this calculation, he concludes that, during the initial phase of these geomagnetic storms, the amplitudes of hydromagnetic disturbances above the ionosphere are less than 1. Assuming that the sudden commencement indicates the presence of a solar wind, he further concludes that hydromagnetie disturbances are not generated in the region between the geomagnetic field and the solar wind and that this interface is, therefore, inherently stable. He subsequently accounts for the hydromagnetie disturbances which are frequently observed at the earth as having been produced by fluctuations in the energy density of the impinging solar wind.

Coleman, P. J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Kinematic and Energetic Properties of the 2012 March 12 Polar Coronal Mass Ejection

We report on the energetics of the 2012 March 12 polar coronal mass ejection (CME) originating from a southern latitude of approximately 60deg. The polar CME is similar to low-latitude (LL) CMEs in almost all respects: three-part morphology; post-eruption arcade (PEA), CME, and filament kinematics; CME mass and kinetic energy; and the relative thermal energy content of the PEA. From polarized brightness images, we estimate the CME mass, which is close to the average mass of LL CMEs. The CME kinetic energy (3.3 × 10(sup 30) erg) is also typical of the general population of CMEs. From photospheric magnetograms, we estimate the free energy (1.8 × 10(sup 31) erg) in the polar crown source region, which we find is sufficient to power the CME and the PEA. About 19% of the free energy went into the CME kinetic energy. We compute the thermal energy content of the PEA (2.3 × 10(sup 29) erg) and find it to be a small fraction (6.8%) of the CME kinetic energy. This fraction is remarkably similar to that in active region CMEs associated with major flares. We also show that the 2012 March 12 is one among scores of polar CMEs observed during the maximum phase of cycle 24. The cycle 24 polar crown prominence eruptions have the same rate of association with CMEs as those from LLs. This investigation supports the view that all CMEs are magnetically propelled from closed field regions, irrespective of their location on the Sun (polar crown filament regions, quiescent filament regions, or active regions).

filaments↗

NASA NTRS2016

Flux Cancellation Leading to CME Filament Eruptions

Solar filaments are strands of relatively cool, dense plasma magnetically suspended in the lower density hotter solar corona. They trace magnetic polarity inversion lines (PILs) in the photosphere below, and are supported against gravity at heights of up to approx.100 Mm above the chromosphere by the magnetic field in and around them. This field erupts when it is rendered unstable, often by magnetic flux cancellation or emergence at or near the PIL. We have studied the evolution of photospheric magnetic flux leading to ten observed filament eruptions. Specifically, we look for gradual magnetic changes in the neighborhood of the PIL prior to and during eruption. We use Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), and magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), both on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), to study filament eruptions and their photospheric magnetic fields. We examine whether flux cancellation or/and emergence leads to filament eruptions. We find that continuous flux cancellation was present at the PIL for many hours prior to each eruption. We present two CME-producing eruptions in detail and find the following: (a) the pre-eruption filament-holding core field is highly sheared and appears in the shape of a sigmoid above the PIL; (b) at the start of the eruption the opposite arms of the sigmoid reconnect in the middle above the site of (tether-cutting) flux cancellation at the PIL; (c) the filaments first show a slow-rise, followed by a fast-rise as they erupt. We conclude that these two filament eruptions result from flux cancellation in the middle of the sheared field, and thereafter evolve in agreement with the standard model for a CME/flare filament eruption from a closed bipolar magnetic field [flux cancellation (van Ballegooijen and Martens 1989 and Moore and Roumelrotis 1992) and runaway tether-cutting (Moore et. al 2001)].

filament↗

NASA NTRS2016

Coronal Jets from Minifilament Eruptions in Active Regions

Solar coronal jets are transient (frequently of lifetime approx.10 min) features that shoot out from near the solar surface, become much longer than their width, and occur in all solar regions, including coronal holes, quiet Sun, and active regions (e.g., Shimojo et al. 1996, Cirtain et al. 2007). Sterling et al. (2015) and other studies found that in coronal holes and in quiet Sun the jets result when small-scale filaments, called "minifilaments" erupt onto nearby open or high-reaching field lines. Additional studies found that coronal-jet-onset locations (and hence presumably the minifilament-eruption-onset locations) coincided with locations of magnetic-flux cancelation. For active region (AR) jets however the situation is less clear. Sterling et al. (2016) studied jets in one active region over a 24-hour period; they found that some AR jets indeed resulted from minifilament eruptions, usually originating from locations of episodes of magnetic-flux cancelation. In some cases however they could not determine whether flux was emerging or canceling at the polarity inversion line from which the minifilament erupted, and for other jets of that region minifilaments were not conclusively apparent prior to jet occurrence. Here we further study AR jets, by observing them in a single AR over a one-week period, using X-ray images from Hinode/XRT and EUV/UV images from SDO/AIA, and line-of-sight magnetograms and white-light intensity-grams from SDO/HMI. We initially identified 13 prominent jets in the XRT data, and examined corresponding AIA and HMI data. For at least several of the jets, our findings are consistent with the jets resulting from minifilament eruptions, and originating from sites of magnetic-field cancelation.

region↗

NASA NTRS2016

Validation for Global Solar Wind Prediction Using Ulysses Comparison: Multiple Coronal and Heliospheric Models Installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

Jian, L. K.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Inverse Energy Dispersion of Energetic Ions Observed in the Magnetosheath

We present a case study of energetic ions observed by the Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) on the Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft in the magnetosheath just outside the subsolar magnetopause that occurred at 1000 UT on 8 December 2015. As the magnetopause receded inward, the EPD observed a burst of energetic (approximately 50-1000 keV) proton, helium, and oxygen ions that exhibited an inverse dispersion, with the lowest energy ions appearing first. The prolonged interval of fast antisunward flow observed in the magnetosheath and transient increases in the H components of global ground magnetograms demonstrate that the burst appeared at a time when the magnetosphere was rapidly compressed. We attribute the inverse energy dispersion to the leakage along reconnected magnetic field lines of betatron-accelerated energetic ions in the magnetosheath, and a burst of reconnection has an extent of about 1.5 R(sub E) using combined Super Dual Auroral Radar Network radar and EPD observations.

Lee, S. H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Correlation of Coronal Plasma Properties and Solar Magnetic Field in a Decaying Active Region

We present the analysis of a decaying active region observed by the EUV Imaging Spectrometer on Hinode during 2009 December 7-11. We investigated the temporal evolution of its structure exhibited by plasma at temperatures from 300,000 to 2.8 million degrees, and derived the electron density, differential emission measure, effective electron temperature, and elemental abundance ratios of Si/S and Fe/S (as a measure of the First Ionization Potential (FIP) Effect). We compared these coronal properties to the temporal evolution of the photospheric magnetic field strength obtained from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager magnetograms. We find that, while these coronal properties all decreased with time during this decay phase, the largest change was at plasma above 1.5 million degrees. The photospheric magnetic field strength also decreased with time but mainly for field strengths lower than about 70 Gauss. The effective electron temperature and the FIP bias seem to reach a basal state (at 1.5 x 10(exp 6) K and 1.5, respectively) into the quiet Sun when the mean photospheric magnetic field (excluding all areas <10 G) weakened to below 35 G, while the electron density continued to decrease with the weakening field. These physical properties are all positively correlated with each other and the correlation is the strongest in the high-temperature plasma. Such correlation properties should be considered in the quest for our understanding of how the corona is heated. The variations in the elemental abundance should especially be considered together with the electron temperature and density.

Sun: abundances↗

NASA NTRS2016

What If We Had A Magnetograph at Lagrangian L5?

Synoptic Carrington charts of magnetic field are routinely used as an input for modelings of solar wind and other aspects of space weather forecast. However, these maps are constructed using only the observations from the solar hemisphere facing Earth. The evolution of magnetic flux on the "farside" of the Sun, which may affect the topology of coronal field in the "nearside," is largely ignored. It is commonly accepted that placing a magnetograph in Lagrangian L5 point would improve the space weather forecast. However, the quantitative estimates of anticipated improvements have been lacking. We use longitudinal magnetograms from the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) to investigate how adding data from L5 point would affect the outcome of two major models used in space weather forecast.

Pevtsov, Alexei A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Triggering Mechanism of Quiet-Region Coronal Jet Eruptions: Flux Cancelation

Coronal jets are frequent transient features on the Sun, observed in EUV and X-ray emissions. They occur in active regions, quiet Sun and coronal holes, and appear as a bright spire with base brightenings. Recent studies show that many coronal jets are driven by the eruption of a minifilament. Here we investigate the magnetic cause of jet-driving minifilament eruptions. We study ten randomly-found on-disk quiet-region coronal jets using SDO/AIA intensity images and SDO/HMI magnetograms. For all ten events, we track the evolution of photospheric magnetic flux in the jet-base region in EUV images and find that (a) a cool (transition-region temperature) minifilament is present prior to each jet eruption; (b) the pre-eruption minifilament resides above the polarity-inversion line between majority-polarity and minority-polarity magnetic flux patches; (c) the opposite-polarity flux patches converge and cancel with each other; (d) the cancelation between the majority-polarity and minority-polarity flux patches eventually destabilizes the field holding the minifilament to erupt outwards; (e) the envelope of the erupting field barges into ambient oppositely-directed far-reaching field and undergoes external reconnection (interchange reconnection); (f) the external reconnection opens the envelope field and the minifilament field inside, allowing reconnected-heated hot material and cool minifilament material to escape along the far-reaching field, producing the jet spire. In summary, we found that each of our ten jets resulted from a minifilament eruption following flux cancelation at the magnetic neutral line under the pre-eruption minifilament. These observations show that flux cancelation is usually the trigger of quiet-region coronal jet eruptions.

coronal jet↗

NASA NTRS2017

Evidence from IRIS that Sunspot Large Penumbral Jets Spin

Recent observations from Hinode (SOT/FG) revealed the presence of large penumbral jets (widths ≥ 500 km, larger than normal penumbral microjets, which have widths < 400 km) repeatedly occurring at the same locations in a sunspot penumbra, at the tail of a filament or where the tails of several penumbral filaments apparently converge (Tiwari et al. 2016, ApJ). These locations were observed to have mixed-polarity flux in Stokes-V images from SOT/FG. Large penumbral jets displayed direct signatures in AIA 1600, 304, 171, and 193 channels; thus they were heated to at least transition region temperatures. Because large jets could not be detected in AIA 94 Å, whether they had any coronal-temperature plasma remains unclear. In the present work, for another sunspot, we use IRIS Mg II k 2796 Å slit jaw images and spectra and magnetograms from Hinode SOT/FG and SOT/SP to examine: whether penumbral jets spin, similar to spicules and coronal jets in the quiet Sun and coronal holes; whether they stem from mixed-polarity flux; and whether they produce discernible coronal emission, especially in AIA 94 Å images. The few large penumbral jets for which we have IRIS spectra show evidence of spin. If these have mixed-polarity at their base, then they might be driven the same way as coronal jets and CMEs.

Tiwari, Sanjiv K.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Flux Cancelation: The Key to Solar Eruptions

Solar coronal jets are magnetically channeled eruptions that occur in all types of solar environments (e.g. active regions, quiet-Sun regions and coronal holes). Recent studies show that coronal jets are driven by the eruption of small-scare filaments (minifilaments). Once the eruption is underway magnetic reconnection evidently makes the jet spire and the bright emission in the jet base. However, the triggering mechanism of these eruptions and the formation mechanism of the pre-jet minifilaments are still open questions. In this talk, mainly using SDOAIA and SDOHIM data, first I will address the question: what triggers the jet-driving minifilament eruptions in different solar environments (coronal holes, quiet regions, active regions)? Then I will talk about the magnetic field evolution that produces the pre-jet minifilaments. By examining pre-jet evolutionary changes in line-of-sight HMI magnetograms while examining concurrent EUV images of coronal and transition-region emission, we find clear evidence that flux cancelation is the main process that builds pre-jet minifilaments, and is also the main process that triggers the eruptions. I will also present results from our ongoing work indicating that jet-driving minifilament eruptions are analogous to larger-scare filament eruptions that make flares and CMEs. We find that persistent flux cancellation at the neutral line of large-scale filaments often triggers their eruptions. From our observations we infer that flux cancelation is the fundamental process from the buildup and triggering of solar eruptions of all sizes.

Panesar, Navdeep K.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Flux Cancelation: The Key to Solar Eruptions

Solar coronal jets are magnetically channeled eruptions that occur in all types of solar environments (e.g. active regions, quiet-Sun regions and coronal holes). Recent studies show that coronal jets are driven by the eruption of small-scale filaments (minifilaments). Once the eruption is underway magnetic reconnection evidently makes the jet spire and the bright emission in the jet base. However, the triggering mechanism of these eruptions and the formation mechanism of the pre-jet minifilaments are still open questions. In this talk, mainly using SDO/AIA and SDO/HMI data, first I will address the question: what triggers the jet-driving minifilament eruptions in different solar environments (coronal holes, quiet regions, active regions)? Then I will talk about the magnetic field evolution that produces the pre-jet minifilaments. By examining pre-jet evolutionary changes in line-of-sight HMI magnetograms while examining concurrent EUV images of coronal and transition-region emission, we find clear evidence that flux cancellation is the main process that builds pre-jet minifilaments, and is also the main process that triggers the eruptions. I will also present results from our ongoing work indicating that jet-driving minifilament eruptions are analogous to larger-scale filament eruptions that make flares and CMEs. We find that persistent flux cancellation at the neutral line of large-scale filaments often triggers their eruptions. From our observations we infer that flux cancellation is the fundamental process for the buildup and triggering of solar eruptions of all sizes.

Panesar, Navdeep K.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Flux Cancelation: The Key to Solar Eruptions

Solar coronal jets are magnetically channeled eruptions that occur in all types of solar environments (e.g. active regions, quiet-Sun regions and coronal holes). Recent studies show that coronal jets are driven by the eruption of small-scare filaments (minifilaments). Once the eruption is underway magnetic reconnection evidently makes the jet spire and the bright emission in the jet base. However, the triggering mechanism of these eruptions and the formation mechanism of the pre-jet minifilaments are still open questions. In this talk, mainly using SDO/AIA (Solar Dynamics Observatory / Atmospheric Imaging Assembly) and SDO/HIM (Solar Dynamics Observatory / Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) data, first I will address the question: what triggers the jet-driving minifilament eruptions in different solar environments (coronal holes, quiet regions, active regions)? Then I will talk about the magnetic field evolution that produces the pre-jet minifilaments. By examining pre-jet evolutionary changes in line-of-sight HMI magnetograms while examining concurrent EUV (Extreme Ultra-Violet) images of coronal and transition-region emission, we find clear evidence that flux cancelation is the main process that builds pre-jet minifilaments, and is also the main process that triggers the eruptions. I will also present results from our ongoing work indicating that jet-driving minifilament eruptions are analogous to larger-scare filament eruptions that make flares and CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections). We find that persistent flux cancellation at the neutral line of large-scale filaments often triggers their eruptions. From our observations we infer that flux cancelation is the fundamental process from the buildup and triggering of solar eruptions of all sizes.

Panesar, Navdeep K.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Flux Cancelation: The Key to Solar Eruptions

Panesar, Navdeep K.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Prediction↗