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Evaluation and Intercomparison of Wildfire Smoke Forecasts from Multiple Modeling Systems for the 2019 Williams Flats Fire

Wildfire smoke is one of the most significant concerns of human and environmental health, associated with its substantial impacts on air quality, weather, and climate. However, biomass burning emissions and smoke remain among the largest sources of uncertainties in air quality forecasts. In this study, we evaluate the smoke emissions and plume forecasts from 12 state-of-the-art air quality forecasting systems during the Williams Flats fire in Washington State, US, August 2019, which was intensively observed during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign. Model forecasts with lead times within 1 d are intercompared under the same framework based on observations from multiple platforms to reveal their performance regarding fire emissions, aerosol optical depth (AOD), surface PM2.5, plume injection, and surface PM2.5 to AOD ratio. The comparison of smoke organic carbon (OC) emissions suggests a large range of daily totals among the models, with a factor of 20 to 50. Limited representations of the diurnal patterns and day-to-day variations of emissions highlight the need to incorporate new methodologies to predict the temporal evolution and reduce uncertainty of smoke emission estimates. The evaluation of smoke AOD (sAOD) forecasts suggests overall underpredictions in both the magnitude and smoke plume area for nearly all models, although the high-resolution models have a better representation of the fine-scale structures of smoke plumes. The models driven by fire radiative power (FRP)-based fire emissions or assimilating satellite AOD data generally outperform the others. Additionally, limitations of the persistence assumption used when predicting smoke emissions are revealed by substantial underpredictions of sAOD on 8 August 2019, mainly over the transported smoke plumes, owing to the underestimated emissions on 7 August. In contrast, the surface smoke PM2.5 (sPM2.5) forecasts show both positive and negative overall biases for these models, with most members presenting more considerable diurnal variations of sPM2.5. Overpredictions of sPM2.5 are found for the models driven by FRP-based emissions during nighttime, suggesting the necessity to improve vertical emission allocation within and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Smoke injection heights are further evaluated using the NASA Langley Research Center's Differential Absorption High Spectral Resolution Lidar (DIAL-HSRL) data collected during the flight observations. As the fire became stronger over 3–8 August, the plume height became deeper, with a day-to-day range of about 2–9 km a.g.l. However, narrower ranges are found for all models, with a tendency of overpredicting the plume heights for the shallower injection transects and underpredicting for the days showing deeper injections. The misrepresented plume injection heights lead to inaccurate vertical plume allocations along the transects corresponding to transported smoke that is 1 d old. Discrepancies in model performance for surface PM2.5 and AOD are further suggested by the evaluation of their ratio, which cannot be compensated for by solely adjusting the smoke emissions but are more attributable to model representations of plume injections, besides other possible factors including the evolution of PBL depths and aerosol optical property assumptions. By consolidating multiple forecast systems, these results provide strategic insight on pathways to improve smoke forecasts.

AOD↗

The Solar-Stellar Connection (NAG5-6124: SOHO Guest Investigator Program)

The following is a final report from the SOHO Guest Investigator program to use the SUMER far-UV spectrometer to obtain imaging spectroscopy in support of the goals of the so-called "solar-stellar connection." In particular, a major emphasis was utilization of the long-slit time-resolved maps of the solar surface in bright far-UV emission lines to deduce how particular aspects of the temporally and spatially averaged line profiles trace back to individual structural features of the magnetically disturbed outer atmosphere; to help interpret the unresolved line profiles from high quality stellar observations (say, with the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph). The researchers served two tours of duty in the SOHO Operations Center as SUMER planners, during which time we conducted an extensive series of observing programs. These can be divided into three general categories: surface mapping, translimb spectroscopy, and active region diagnostics. We have analyzed some of the large volumes of data to the point where we have presented them in poster papers, and in invited papers at national and international meetings. Listed below are the titles of the preliminary publications we have written, including brief abstracts to indicate the main results. (1) Chromospheric structure and Dynamics-- Observations -- The chromosphere is a highly structured dynamic 'layer' of the solar outer atmosphere. Here, not only are the effects of mechanical heating first evident (moving upward in altitude from the deep photosphere), but also the amount of nonradiative energy deposited is far greater than in the albeit much hotter overlying transition region and corona. Further, the chromosphere is by far the thickest zone of the solar atmosphere with respect to the pressure scale height. A major goal of stellar astrophysics is to understand how the chromosphere is heated and why it adopts its peculiar structure. A cursory examination of solar filtergrams and high-resolution movies demonstrates that much of the chromospheric "action" must be occurring on fine spatial scales and short times; particularly in the cell interior transient brightenings, but also in the longer-lived network fragments. That regime of investigation is far removed from what one usually associates with "synoptic" measurements. Nevertheless, synoptic observations of chromospheric indices, filtergrams, and globally-averaged profile parameters not only can provide important insight concerning the crucial role of the cycle-variable part of the solar magnetic field; but they also can forge a key link with analogous measurements of the stars, where often the phenomena can be significantly exaggerated from the solar case, but high spatial resolution reconnaissance is not even a remote possibility. In addition to discussing the synoptic aspects of chromospheric structure and dynamics, I summarized new insights into the general problem of the solar chromosphere that have been obtained recently with the SUMER far-ultraviolet spectrometer on SOHO. (2) CO and the Temperature Structure of the Solar Atmosphere -- The surface layers of the Sun provide a crucial boundary condition for many of the processes that occur in the deep interior. The stratification of the outer solar atmosphere once was thought to be well understood. However, studies of thermally sensitive molecular absorptions in the infrared revealed puzzling anomalies. Strong lines of the CO fundamental vibration-rotation bands near 5 microns showed very cool temperatures at the extreme limb, and remarkable off-limb emissions extending well into the supposedly hot chromosphere. The conflicting pictures of the photosphere/chromosphere interface, from the widely separated wavelength regimes, has raised suspicions that those "layers" of the atmosphere are much more inhomogeneous than previously suspected. One proposal is that the low chromosphere is dominated by cool gas, the "COmosphere," which is threaded by a network of persistent small-scale hot magnetic filaments and occasionally disrupted by localized acoustic disturbances. The COmosphere is capped by the merged fields of the network elements in the chromospheric "canopy." (3) Translimb Spectroscopy with SOHO/SUMER -- We have used SUMER to obtain deep exposures of the 1300-1400 A spectrum, at the extreme limb and off-limb. Previous "translimb" studies in the thermal infrared had revealed remarkable extensions of cold material (T is approximately equal to 3000 K)-traced by carbon monoxide emission lines-into the heart of the hot chromosphere. A main objective of our program was to search for corresponding far-UV signatures of the "thermally-bifurcated" low chromosphere; for example, radiatively fluoresced emissions of the CO A-X 4th-positive system (collisional excitation would be negligible in cold gas). We conducted two separate observing programs with SUMER. Both made use of the 1 inch-diameter circular aperture, translated across the limb in the minimum motor step increments of 0."375, along the central meridian in the Northern polar coronal hole. The first program executed for nine hours beginning 19UT 25 Oct 1996. The full wavelength range was 1340-1400 A. It was recorded in two overlapping segments, placing key regions of the spectrum alternately on the KBr and bare parts of the detector, to help isolate 2nd-order features. Each segment was integrated for 500 s, and 32 pairs were obtained to span a 12" swath centered on the optical limb. The second program was conducted 00-09UT 01 Dec 1996. It consisted of a single wavelength setting (1300-1340 A) with exposure time 500 s, but twice the spatial coverage of the earlier series: 64 steps, for a total displacement of 24". The strong chromospheric resonance lines of atomic oxygen (1302-1305 A) and ionized carbon (1334-1335 A) were observed on the bare part of the MCP camera.

Ayres, Thomas R.↗

Insights and Observations From Operating A Laser Communication Terminal on the International Space Station (ISS)

The Integrated Laser Communication Relay Demonstration (LCRD) Low Earth Orbit User Modem and Amplifier Terminal (ILLUMA-T) is the first user platform for NASA’s first laser communication relay, LCRD. ILLUMA-T is hosted on the International Space Station (ISS) as an external payload of the Japanese Experiment Module – Exposed Facility (JEM-EF) situated in slot 3. The LCRD payload is hosted on the STPSat-6 spacecraft, which orbits Earth in a geostationary orbit at position 112 W. The ILLUMA-T-to-LCRD system provides a bidirectional, space-to-ground laser communication relay link transferring data up to 1.2 Gbps utilizing two optical ground stations (OGS), OGS-1 in California and OGS-2 in Hawai’i. This paper describes lessons learned from operating the ILLUMA-T system and examines topics such as the end-to-end system availability, predictive versus actual ephemeris, acquisition adjustments, modem timing and handshaking, the terminal’s physical placement and accommodations, and experiment development, execution, and analysis. The authors of this paper operate both the LCRD and ILLUMA-T laser terminals on a daily basis including pass planning, procedure execution, acquisition analysis, and real-time terminal commanding and telemetry monitoring. LCRD is a joint project involving NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the California Institute of Technology Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), and Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT LL). The ILLUMA-T payload is managed by NASA GSFC in Greenbelt, Maryland whose partners include the ISS program office at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, Texas; the Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama; the Glenn Research Center (GRC) in Cleveland, Ohio; and the MIT LL in Lexington, Massachusetts. ILLUMA-T is funded by the Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Program at NASA Headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Laser Communications↗

"Built-In" Action/Issues Tracking and Post-Ops Analysis Tool for Realtime Console Operations

Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Payload Operations Integration Center (POIC) for the International Space Station (ISS) uses a number of formal databases to manage and track flight plan changes, onboard and ground equipment anomalies, and other events. However, individual console positions encounter many action items and/or occurrences that don't fit neatly into the databases, and while console logs are comprehensive, manual or automated searches do not always yield consistent results. The Payload Communications Manager (PAYCOM) team, whose members speak directly with the ISS onboard crew with respect to NASA payload operations, has found a creative way to reformat a mandatory Daily Report to organize action items, standing reminders, significant events, and other comments. While the report keeps others appraised of PAYCOMs activities and issues of the moment, the format makes it easy to capture very brief summaries of the items in a "Roll Off Matrix", including start and stop dates, resolution, and possible applicability to future ops. The matrix provides accountability for all action items, gives direct insight into the issues surrounding various payloads and methods of dealing with them, yields indirect information on PAYCOM priorities and processes, and provides a roadmap that makes it easier to get back to extensive details if needed. This paper describes how the ISS PAYCOM Daily Report and Roll Off Matrix are organized, used, and inter-related to each other and the PAYCOM operations log. While the application is for a manned vehicle, the concepts could apply in a wide spectrum of operational settings.

Scott, David W.↗

Immersive Technologies for Human-in-the-Loop Lunar Surface Simulations

NASA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, continually seeks innovative solutions to enhance its operations, particularly in the realms of testing, evaluation, and training for future missions. Immersive technologies, such as virtual, augmented, and mixed reality have proven to be powerful tools for realistic, interactive, and engaging environments. This paper explores how the Simulation and Graphics Branch at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) leverages immersive technology, modern commercial rendering engines, and physics-based systems simulations to develop human-in-the-loop systems for humanity’s return to the Moon through the Artemis program. When NASA returns to the Moon, astronauts will travel to the Moon’s South Pole where lighting conditions will cause a more complex operational environment. Human-in-the-loop testing plays a crucial role in NASA's mission planning, spacecraft and space systems development, and evaluation of operational scenarios. The development of immersive environments such as a lunar rover mockup at a video wall enables engineers and astronauts to simulate and experience mission scenarios, integrated spacecraft systems, and operational procedures in a relevant environment before deployment. By integrating realistic virtual environments, immersive technology allows for the visualization and interaction with virtual spacecraft models, mission landscapes, and complex operational tasks. This approach helps identify potential design flaws, operational challenges, and safety considerations. It also provides valuable insights for risk reduction and helps improve mission efficiency and effectiveness. With advanced motion tracking systems and custom virtual environments data can be gathered and evaluated to help NASA refine training protocols, develop specialized training procedures and optimize human-robotic interactions for future space missions. Furthermore, immersive technology offers opportunities for future training initiatives at NASA. The Virtual Reality Laboratory at JSC has pioneered training with Virtual Reality (VR) since the Hubble Space Telescope repair missions in the early 1990’s. Extended Reality (XR) simulations enable astronauts to rehearse complex spacewalks, spacecraft maneuvers, and extravehicular activities in a safe and controlled environment. By replicating the physical and cognitive challenges of space missions, immersive training experiences enhance astronauts' situational awareness, decision-making abilities, and adaptability to unexpected scenarios. Additionally, immersive technology facilitates collaborative training, allowing geographically dispersed crew and mission control personnel to engage in synchronized simulations, fostering teamwork and effective communication. The adoption of immersive technology in NASA's testing, evaluation, and future training programs has yielded significant benefits. By incorporating human-in-the-loop testing for studies involving Extra Vehicular Activities (EVA), surface mobility and landing systems, NASA can identify and mitigate risks, optimize operational procedures, and enhance mission success. Ultimately, immersive training experiences can empower astronauts to better navigate the complexities of space missions, ensuring their safety, productivity, and success in the dynamic and challenging environments they will experience at the Lunar South Pole.

Simulation Modeling Virtual Reality Immersive Tech↗

Immersive Technologies for Human-in-the-Loop Lunar Surface Simulations

NASA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, continually seeks innovative solutions to enhance its operations, particularly in the realms of testing, evaluation, and training for future missions. Immersive technologies, such as virtual, augmented, and mixed reality have proven to be powerful tools for immersing users in realistic, interactive, and engaging environments. This paper explores how the Simulation and Graphics Branch at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) leverages immersive technology, modern commercial rendering engines, and physics-based systems simulations to develop human-in-the-loop systems for humanity’s return to the Moon through the Artemis program. When NASA returns to the Moon, astronauts will travel to the Moon’s South Pole where lighting conditions will cause a more complex operational environment. Human-in-the-loop simulations play a crucial role in NASA’s mission planning, spacecraft and space systems development, and evaluation of operational scenarios. The development of immersive environments such as a lunar rover mockup at a video wall enables engineers and astronauts to simulate and experience mission scenarios, integrated spacecraft systems, and operational procedures in a relevant environment before deployment. By integrating realistic virtual environments, immersive technology allows for the visualization and interaction with virtual spacecraft models, mission landscapes, and complex operational tasks. This approach helps identify potential design flaws, operational challenges, and safety considerations. It also provides valuable insights for risk reduction and helps improve mission efficiency and effectiveness. With advanced motion tracking systems and custom virtual environments, data can be gathered and evaluated to help NASA refine training protocols, develop specialized training procedures, and optimize human-robotic interactions for future space missions. Furthermore, immersive technology offers opportunities for future training initiatives at NASA. The Virtual Reality Laboratory at JSC has pioneered training with Virtual Reality (VR) since the Hubble Space Telescope repair missions in the early 1990’s. Extended Reality (XR) simulations enable astronauts to rehearse complex spacewalks, spacecraft maneuvers, and extravehicular activities in a safe and controlled environment. By replicating the physical and cognitive challenges of space missions, immersive training experiences enhance astronauts’ situational awareness, decision-making abilities, and adaptability to unexpected scenarios. Additionally, immersive technology facilitates collaborative training, allowing geographically dispersed crew and mission control personnel to engage in synchronized simulations, fostering teamwork and effective communication. The adoption of immersive technology in NASA’s testing, evaluation, and future training programs has yielded significant benefits. By incorporating human-in-the-loop simulations for studies involving Extra Vehicular Activities (EVA), surface mobility and landing systems, NASA can identify and mitigate risks, optimize operational procedures, and enhance mission success. Ultimately, immersive simulation experiences can empower astronauts to better navigate the complexities of space missions, ensuring their safety, productivity, and success in the dynamic and challenging environments they will experience at the Lunar South Pole.

HITL↗

Computational Simulations of the 10-MW TP3 Arc-Jet Facility Flow

This paper reports computational simulations and analysis in support of calibration tests in a high enthalpy arc-jet facility at NASA Ames Research Center. These tests were conducted using stagnation calorimeters and two different blunted wedge models with calibration plates at a wide range of conditions in the NASA Ames 10-megawatt TP3 (Test Position 3) facility. Data were obtained using four different conical nozzles with the same test configuration in which the models were placed in a free jet downstream of the nozzle. Experimental surveys of arc-jet test flow with pitot and null-point heat flux probes were also performed at several arc-heater conditions, providing assessment of the flow uniformity and valuable data for the flow characterization. The present analysis comprises computational fluid dynamics simulations of the nonequilibrium flowfield in the facility nozzle and test box, including the models tested, and comparisons with the experimental measurements. These computational simulations provide estimates of the arc-jet test environment parameters that are not measured but are needed to evaluate the performance of thermal protection system materials, along with further valuable insights into the arc-jet testing environment. Simulation results are used to estimate centerline total enthalpy, surface shear, boundary layer thickness, and boundary layer edge Mach number and to verify that specific test requirements from the Orion program are met.

CFD↗

Flow-Field Measurements in a Wing-Fuselage Junction Using an Embedded Particle Image Velocimetry System

A novel, embedded, 2D Particle Image Velocimetry system has been developed and implemented to obtain off-body velocity measurements in the junction of an 8% wing-body configuration in the NASA Langley Research Center 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel. Although the initial purpose for implementing the system during this test was to evaluate system performance and identify potential risks, the system worked remarkably well and a considerable amount of data were obtained in the wing-fuselage junction near the trailing edge at a Reynolds Number of 2.4 Million and angle of attack of 5 degrees. In addition to providing notable efficiencies with regard to image acquisition and test operations, the PIV system proved to be quite capable of capturing unique details of the flow separation to complement the extensive suite of measurement techniques applied during the test. Instantaneous PIV vector fields reveal that the flow separation is not stationary but rather highly dynamic. Mean flow statistics calculated from the PIV measurements highlight where reverse flow and Reynolds stresses are concentrated in the separated region and agree well with results from the embedded Laser Doppler Velocimeter system and Computational Fluid Dynamics. The comparisons and additional insight gained during this effort will help guide system improvements for follow-on tests.

Jenkins, Luther N.↗

NASA Extravehicular Activity Technology Roadmaps for Exploration

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed and matured many technologies over the decades to advance extravehicular activity (EVA) systems. Over the last 15 years, major steps were taken to advance the technology with the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) government reference design at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, Texas. The xEMU builds on the lessons learned of the Apollo, Space Shuttle, and International Space Station (ISS) EMUs, evolving the technology to increase performance for extreme environments. As NASA sets its goals toward Earth’s Moon and Mars, a spacesuit design tolerable of gravity and dust will be needed for these adverse environments. NASA has used roadmaps as the means of documenting actionable plans for strategizing technology developments needed to meet NASA’s mission and goals. To help reach and create a sustained presence on the Moon, NASA procured EVA services from industry through the Exploration EVA Services (xEVAS) contract. These services include certified contractor-provided spacesuits, tools, equipment, vehicle interfaces, and support to training and real-time operations. NASA will now focus on a mission to Mars. NASA leadership has set goals and objectives related to the Agency’s vision and a Moon to Mars (M2M) strategy. This paper presents an organizational framework to provide insight into how NASA’s vision is realized. Additionally, this paper covers the maturation and development of the spacesuit technology and reveals the EVA technology roadmaps for the M2M Program. These EVA roadmaps visualize an actionable path to EVA capabilities needed for Mars exploration.

Cinda Chullen↗

NASA Extravehicular Activity Technology Roadmaps for Exploration

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed and matured many technologies over the decades to advance extravehicular activity (EVA) systems. Over the last 15 years, major steps were taken to advance the technology with the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) government reference design at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, Texas. The xEMU builds on the lessons learned of the Apollo, Space Shuttle, and International Space Station (ISS) EMUs, evolving the technology to increase performance for extreme environments. As NASA sets its goals toward Earth’s Moon and Mars, a spacesuit design tolerable of gravity and dust will be needed for these adverse environments. NASA has used roadmaps as the means of documenting actionable plans for strategizing technology developments needed to meet NASA’s mission and goals. To help reach and create a sustained presence on the Moon, NASA procured EVA services from industry through the Exploration EVA Services (xEVAS) contract. These services include certified contractor-provided spacesuits, tools, equipment, vehicle interfaces, and support to training and real-time operations. NASA will now focus on a mission to Mars. NASA leadership has set goals and objectives related to the Agency’s vision and a Moon to Mars (M2M) strategy. This paper presents an organizational framework to provide insight into how NASA’s vision is realized. Additionally, this paper covers the maturation and development of the spacesuit technology and reveals the EVA technology roadmaps for the M2M Program. These EVA roadmaps visualize an actionable path to EVA capabilities needed for Mars exploration.

Cinda Chullen↗

Invited review: gravitational biology of the neuromotor systems: a perspective to the next era

Earth's gravity has had a significant impact on the designs of the neuromotor systems that have evolved. Early indications are that gravity also plays a key role in the ontogenesis of some of these design features. The purpose of the present review is not to assess and interpret a body of knowledge in the usual sense of a review but to look ahead, given some of the general concepts that have evolved and observations made to date, which can guide our future approach to gravitational biology. We are now approaching an era in gravitational biology during which well-controlled experiments can be conducted for sustained periods in a microgravity environment. Thus it is now possible to study in greater detail the role of gravity in phylogenesis and ontogenesis. Experiments can range from those conducted on the simplest levels of organization of the components that comprise the neuromotor system to those conducted on the whole organism. Generally, the impact of Earth's gravitational environment on living systems becomes more complex as the level of integration of the biological phenomenon of interest increases. Studies of the effects of gravitational vectors on neuromotor systems have and should continue to provide unique insight into these mechanisms that control and maintain neural control systems designed to function in Earth's gravitational environment. A number of examples are given of how a gravitational biology perspective can lead to a clearer understanding of neuromotor disorders. Furthermore, the technologies developed for spaceflight studies have contributed and should continue to contribute to studies of motor dysfunctions, such as spinal cord injury and stroke. Disorders associated with energy support and delivery systems and how these functions are altered by sedentary life styles at 1 G and by space travel in a microgravity environment are also discussed.

Review, Tutorial↗

Nonlinear Structural Analysis Methodology and Dynamics Scaling of Inflatable Parabolic Reflector Antenna Concepts

Ultra-light weight and ultra-thin membrane inflatable antenna concepts are fast evolving to become the state-of-the-art antenna concepts for deep-space applications. NASA Langley Research Center has been involved in the structural dynamics research on antenna structures. One of the goals of the research is to develop structural analysis methodology for prediction of the static and dynamic response characteristics of the inflatable antenna concepts. This research is focused on the computational studies to use nonlinear large deformation finite element analysis to characterize the ultra-thin membrane responses of the antennas. Recently, structural analyses have been performed on a few parabolic reflector antennas of varying size and shape, which are referred in the paper as 0.3 meters subscale, 2 meters half-scale, and 4 meters full-scale antenna. The various aspects studied included nonlinear analysis methodology and solution techniques, ways to speed convergence in iterative methods, the sensitivities of responses with respect to structural loads, such as inflation pressure, gravity, and pretension loads in the ground and in-space conditions, and the ultra-thin membrane wrinkling characteristics. Several such intrinsic aspects studied have provided valuable insight into evaluation of structural characteristics of such antennas. While analyzing these structural characteristics, a quick study was also made to assess the applicability of dynamics scaling of the half-scale antenna. This paper presents the details of the nonlinear structural analysis results, and discusses the insight gained from the studies on the various intrinsic aspects of the analysis methodology. The predicted reflector surface characteristics of the three inflatable ultra-thin membrane parabolic reflector antenna concepts are presented as easily observable displacement fringe patterns with associated maximum values, and normal mode shapes and associated frequencies. Wrinkling patterns are presented to show how surface wrinkle progress with increasing tension loads. Antenna reflector surface accuracies were found to be very much dependent on the type and size of the antenna, the reflector surface curvature, reflector membrane supports in terms of spacing of catenaries, as well as the amount of applied load.

Sreekantamurthy, Tham↗

Aircraft Conflict Analysis and Real-Time Conflict Probing Using Probabilistic Trajectory Modeling

Methods for maintaining separation between aircraft in the current airspace system have been built from a foundation of structured routes and evolved procedures. However, as the airspace becomes more congested and the chance of failures or operational error become more problematic, automated conflict alerting systems have been proposed to help provide decision support and to serve as traffic monitoring aids. The problem of conflict detection and resolution has been tackled from a number of different ways, but in this thesis, it is recast as a problem of prediction in the presence of uncertainties. Much of the focus is concentrated on the errors and uncertainties from the working trajectory model used to estimate future aircraft positions. The more accurate the prediction, the more likely an ideal (no false alarms, no missed detections) alerting system can be designed. Additional insights into the problem were brought forth by a review of current operational and developmental approaches found in the literature. An iterative, trial and error approach to threshold design was identified. When examined from a probabilistic perspective, the threshold parameters were found to be a surrogate to probabilistic performance measures. To overcome the limitations in the current iterative design method, a new direct approach is presented where the performance measures are directly computed and used to perform the alerting decisions. The methodology is shown to handle complex encounter situations (3-D, multi-aircraft, multi-intent, with uncertainties) with relative ease. Utilizing a Monte Carlo approach, a method was devised to perform the probabilistic computations in near realtime. Not only does this greatly increase the method's potential as an analytical tool, but it also opens up the possibility for use as a real-time conflict alerting probe. A prototype alerting logic was developed and has been utilized in several NASA Ames Research Center experimental studies.

Yang, Lee C.↗

Advances in Design Capabilities for Planetary Missions from the NASA Entry Systems Modeling and Instrumentation Portfolio

The Entry Systems Modeling project (ESM) is supported by both the NASA Space Technology and the Science Mission Directorates and focuses on developing simulation tools and validated models for characterizing the performance of entry systems tailored to planetary destinations across the Solar System. ESM is organized into six technical capability areas that together address all relevant factors related to spacecraft entry, as well as some aspects of descent: Thermal Protection System (TPS) Materials; Aerothermodynamics; Entry & Descent Vehicle Dynamics; Guidance, Navigation, and Control; Vehicle Systems Analysis; and Advanced Tools and Numerical Methods. Development within the capability areas is undertaken explicitly with a focus on transition and infusion to science missions, human exploration missions, and commercial space activities. The present talk details developments that specifically impact science missions, including simulation tool capabilities that aid in mission design and model development to understand entry system performance at a given destination. Examples of the successful infusion and transition of such project outcomes to science missions also are provided. Several simulation tool development efforts within ESM have resulted in new design capabilities for missions. One such outcome is improved toolsets for mission trajectory and concept of operations design. Specifically, an initiative to couple a leading tool for entry, ascent/descent, and orbital trajectory optimization (Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II or POST2) to those used within the Agency for interplanetary trajectory optimization (Copernicus and Monte) has made substantial progress, with the outcomes to date promising to allow efficient trajectory optimization across mission phases. Additionally, toolchains for the evaluation of vehicle performance during entry and descent have been developed that allow assessment of multi-dimensional aeroheating on detailed vehicle geometries, characterization of deployment and inflation of parachutes, and assessment of vehicle dynamic stability during descent. These capabilities are achieved by coupling diverse sets of physics together – material response, computational fluid dynamics, radiation, and vehicle dynamics – to suitably describe complex entry and descent phenomena. Several model development and validation efforts for specific destinations and entry regimes also are underway within the ESM project. For instance, new experimental capabilities to validate radiation models at low densities/high altitudes recently have been established with project support, specifically the Low-Density Shock Tube (LDST) at the NASA Ames Research Center Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The LDST is being leveraged to develop improved models of shock layer kinetics and radiation in Titan atmospheres, while future studies will be conducted in the LDST and the existing high velocity shock tube to provide validation data for radiation models of Venus, Ice Giants, and Mars atmospheres. Models describing the aerothermal and thermo-structural performance of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials has been another focus, with multiscale modeling activities on-going for the two leading TPS materials applicable to a range of entry conditions and science missions: the Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and woven materials like 3D Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP). A continual effort is made to infuse and transition outcomes from ESM simulation tool and model development activities into relevant science missions. Significant progress has been made on this front, with missions such as Dragonfly, DAVINCI, and Mars Missions benefitting from project outcomes. The groundwork also is being laid to provide insights into forward looking missions to Gas/Ice Giants as well as for potential sample returns.

Justin Haskins↗

Structural Benchmark Tests of Composite Combustion Chamber Support Completed

A series of mechanical load tests was completed on several novel design concepts for extremely lightweight combustion chamber support structures at the NASA Glenn Research Center (http://www.nasa.gov/glenn/). The tests included compliance evaluation, preliminary proof loadings, high-strain cyclic testing, and finally residual strength testing of each design (see the photograph on the left). Loads were applied with single rollers (see the photograph on the right) or pressure plates (not shown) located midspan on each side to minimize the influence of contact stresses on corner deformation measurements. Where rollers alone were used, a more severe structural loading was produced than the corresponding equal-force pressure loading: the maximum transverse shear force existed over the entire length of each side, and the corner bending moments were greater than for a distributed (pressure) loading. Failure modes initiating at the corner only provided a qualitative indication of the performance limitations since the stress state was not identical to internal pressure. Configurations were tested at both room and elevated temperatures. Experimental results were used to evaluate analytical prediction tools and finite-element methodologies for future work, and they were essential to provide insight into the deformation at the corners. The tests also were used to assess fabrication and bonding details for the complicated structures. They will be used to further optimize the design of the support structures for weight performance and the efficacy of corner reinforcement.

Krause, David L.↗

The growth of the UniTree mass storage system at the NASA Center for Computational Sciences: Some lessons learned

In October 1992, the NASA Center for Computational Sciences made its Convex-based UniTree system generally available to users. The ensuing months saw growth in every area. Within 26 months, data under UniTree control grew from nil to over 12 terabytes, nearly all of it stored on robotically mounted tape. HiPPI/UltraNet was added to enhance connectivity, and later HiPPI/TCP was added as well. Disks and robotic tape silos were added to those already under UniTree's control, and 18-track tapes were upgraded to 36-track. The primary data source for UniTree, the facility's Cray Y-MP/4-128, first doubled its processing power and then was replaced altogether by a C98/6-256 with nearly two-and-a-half times the Y-MP's combined peak gigaflops. The Convex/UniTree software was upgraded from version 1.5 to 1.7.5, and then to 1.7.6. Finally, the server itself, a Convex C3240, was upgraded to a C3830 with a second I/O bay, doubling the C3240's memory and capacity for I/O. This paper describes insights gained and reinforced with the burgeoning demands on the UniTree storage system and the significant increases in performance gained from the many upgrades.

Tarshish, Adina↗

Orthologs, paralogs and genome comparisons

During the past decade, ancient gene duplications were recognized as one of the main forces in the generation of diverse gene families and the creation of new functional capabilities. New tools developed to search data banks for homologous sequences, and an increased availability of reliable three-dimensional structural information led to the recognition that proteins with diverse functions can belong to the same superfamily. Analyses of the evolution of these superfamilies promises to provide insights into early evolution but are complicated by several important evolutionary processes. Horizontal transfer of genes can lead to a vertical spread of innovations among organisms, therefore finding a certain property in some descendants of an ancestor does not guarantee that it was present in that ancestor. Complete or partial gene conversion between duplicated genes can yield phylogenetic trees with several, apparently independent gene duplications, suggesting an often surprising parallelism in the evolution of independent lineages. Additionally, the breakup of domains within a protein and the fusion of domains into multifunctional proteins makes the delineation of superfamilies a task that remains difficult to automate.

Non-NASA Center↗

On Characterization of Flow Disturbances in Arc-Jet Testing

This paper reports computational simulations and analysis of flow characterization tests in high enthalpy arc-jet facilities at NASA Ames Research Center. Flow disturbances and their characterization are presented through case studies, and their implications for testing are discussed. The case studies include free-jet test configurations from three different arc heaters and nozzles: the 60-MW IHF 30-inch conical nozzle, the 10-MW TP3 15-inch conical nozzle, and the 20-MW AHF 12-inch conical nozzle. For all cases, test articles are placed in the jet exiting the conical nozzle, and the existence of a flow disturbance is confirmed through flow survey data using pitot pressure and heat flux probes and accompanying analysis. The paper focuses on cases where the effects of the disturbances on test article surface quantities are important. The present analysis comprises computational fluid dynamics simulations of the nonequilibrium flowfield in the facility nozzles and test box, including the models tested. Comparisons of computations with the experimental measurements are presented. The computations that reproduce the probe sweep data approximately are essential to interpret the arc-jet test data accurately, while providing insights into several observed calorimeter anomalies caused by flow disturbances.

Arc-jet testing↗