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DOE OSTI2025

Core-edge integrated predictive studies of ST40 and NSTX plasmas with the scrape-off layer box model

The ability to model the interplay between the core and edge of tokamak plasmas is crucial to designing both the plasma operating scenario of a fusion pilot plant and the design of the tokamak itself. Scrape-off-layer (SOL) models that are tailored to integrated scenario modeling need to have fast turn-around time and minimal computational burden to enable wide parameter-space coverage for design scoping. The SOL 0-D Box model is a reduced SOL model based on global power and particle balance that captures the essential physics of SOL transport with little computational cost. The usage of the 0-D Box model in core-edge coupled simulations has been demonstrated in both interpretive and predictive modes on a variety of devices. This paper presents a sensitivity study of the 0-D Box model to the input SOL heat-flux width for an ST40 plasma. This study demonstrates that accurate prediction of this width is crucial to predicting global performance parameters of a plasma scenario, such as energy confinement time and flux consumption. We also present an extension of the Box model to 1-D to allow for parallel variation of plasma parameters along the magnetic field lines. The 1-D Box model is then compared with SOLPS-ITER simulations of an NSTX plasma. Advantages and limitations of the Box model are discussed, and future directions are outlined.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

First inverse kinematics measurement of resonances in Be 7 ( α , γ ) C 11 relevant to neutrino-driven wind nucleosynthesis using DRAGON

A possible mechanism to explain the origin of the light $\textit{p}$ nuclei in the Galaxy is the nucleosynthesis in the proton-rich neutrino-driven wind ejecta of core-collapse supernovas via the $\textit{νp}$ process. However, this production scenario is very sensitive to the underlying supernova dynamics and the nuclear physics input. As far as the nuclear uncertainties are concerned, the breakout from the $\textit{pp}$ chains via the 7 Be(α,γ) 11 C reaction has been identified as an important link which can influence the nuclear flow and, therefore, the efficiency of the $\textit{νp}$ process. However, its reaction rate is poorly known over the relevant temperature range, $\textit{T}$ = 1.5–3 GK. We report on the first direct measurement of two resonances of the 7 Be(α,γ) 11 C reaction with previously unknown strengths using an intense radioactive 7 Be beam from the Isotope Separator and Accelerator (ISAC-I) Center facility and the DRAGON recoil separator in inverse kinematics. In this work, we have decreased the 7 Be(α,γ) 11 C reaction rate uncertainty to ≈9.4–10.7% over the relevant temperature region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reweighting Monte Carlo predictions and automated fragmentation variations in Pythia 8

This work reports on a method for uncertainty estimation in simulated collider-event predictions. The method is based on a Monte Carlo-veto algorithm, and extends previous work on uncertainty estimates in parton showers by including uncertainty estimates for the Lund string-fragmentation model. This method is advantageous from the perspective of simulation costs: a single ensemble of generated events can be reinterpreted as though it was obtained using a different set of input parameters, where each event now is accompanied with a corresponding weight. This allows for a robust exploration of the uncertainties arising from the choice of input model parameters, without the need to rerun full simulation pipelines for each input parameter choice. Such explorations are important when determining the sensitivities of precision physics measurements. Accompanying code is available at https://gitlab.com/uchep/mlhad-weights-validation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

MELCOR 2.2 Benchmarks of Peach Bottom NUREG/CR 7155 Uncertainty Analysis

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) performed a first-of-a-kind uncertainty analysis (UA) of the accident progression, radiological releases, and offsite consequences for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) of an unmitigated long-term station blackout (LTSBO) severe accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The objective of the UA was to evaluate the robustness of the SOARCA deterministic "best estimate results and conclusions documented in NUREG-1935, and to develop insight into the overall sensitivity of the SOARCA results to uncertainty in key modeling inputs. The study was completed in 2015 and documented in NUREG/CR-7155. Since 2015, two other SOARCA UAs were completed for two pressurized water reactor (PWR) plants. The PWR UAs incrementally updated the approach and methodology, including using the latest release of the MELCOR 2.2 computer code. There were also advances made in the state-of-the-art modeling related to NRC efforts using the Peach Bottom model in NUREG-2206, which provided the technical basis for the containment protection and release reduction rulemaking for boiling water reactors with Mark I and Mark II containments. This report documents the input model changes from the NUREG/CR-7155 study and performs a small number of reference calculations to assess the changes of the new computer code and the model input updates. The objective of the work is to verify whether the updated Peach Bottom MELCOR model and updated version of MELCOR support the conclusions formed in the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA by performing these representative calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of the Fusion Zone in Laser Beam Welds on SS304L

Designing a welded joint requires consideration of the welding process, component/assembly structure and weld geometry, material composition, properties, and desired joint performance. The designer must also specify a set of acceptance criteria used to evaluate the welds. This study was conducted to support the design team responsible for specifying the spot weld profile by investigating the relationship between weld process parameters and the weld geometry and properties to further inform design optimization. The subjects of this study are two thin stainless steel 304L (SS304L) components joined by Laser Beam Welding (LBW). The components are the Housing, which contains flexible circuitry, and the Cover that protects the circuitry during handling, installation, and under service loads. Figure 1 illustrates coupon versions of the Cover and Housing used to simulate the interface between these components for weld testing. These coupon representations of assembly components were designed to match the material and relevant geometry related to the welded joint while other features not relevant to the welded joint are excluded.The objective of this study was to characterize the sensitivity of the weld geometry and mechanical properties to the input weld parameters to inform further Finite Element Analysis (FEA) efforts in balancing joint strength against assembly deformation caused by the welding process. Characterization was accomplished by varying laser welding parameters around the current design values and measuring weld geometry on the cross-sections. Nanoindentation with a spherical and flat-ended tip was used on polished section cuts of the weld to obtain direct estimates of the stress-strain response of the Fusion Zone (FZ) for comparison to the Base Metal (BM).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of Machine Learning Algorithms to Identify Problematic Nuclear Data

In this work we aim to show that Machine learning algorithms are promising tools for the identification of nuclear data that contribute to increased errors in transport simulations. We demonstrate this through an application of a machine learning algorithm (Random Forest) to the Whisper/MCNP6 criticality validation library to identify nuclear data that are associated with an increase of the bias (simulated - experimental $k_{eff}$) in the calculations. Specifically, the $k_{eff}$ sensitivity profiles (w.r.t. nuclear data) of 233 U solution benchmarks are used to predict the bias and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) are used to explain how the sensitivities are related to the predicted bias. The SHAP values can be interpreted as sensitivity coefficients of the machine learning model to the $k_{eff}$ sensitivities which are used to make predictions of bias. Using the SHAP values we can identify specific subsets of nuclear data which have the highest probability of influencing bias. We demonstrate the utility of this method by showing how SHAP values were used to identify an inconsistency in the 19 F inelastic scattering nuclear data. The methodology presented here is not limited to transport problems and can be applied to other simulations if there are experimental measurements to compare against, simulations of those experimental measurements, and the ability to calculate sensitivities of the model output with respect to the data inputs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Soil bacterial and fungal community responses to nitrogen addition across soil depth and microhabitat in an arid shrubland

Arid shrublands are stressful environments, typified by alkaline soils low in organic matter, with biologically-limiting extremes in water availability, temperature, and UV radiation. The widely-spaced plants and interspace biological soil crusts in these regions provide soil nutrients in a localized fashion, creating a mosaic pattern of plant- or crust-associated microhabitats with distinct nutrient composition. With sporadic and limited rainfall, nutrients are primarily retained in the shallow surface soil, patterning biological activity. We examined soil bacterial and fungal community responses to simulated nitrogen (N) deposition in an arid Larrea tridentata-Ambrosia dumosa field experiment in southern Nevada, USA, using high-throughput sequencing of ribosomal RNA genes. To examine potential interactions among the N application, microhabitat and soil depth, we sampled soils associated with shrub canopies and interspace biological crusts at two soil depths (0–0.5 or 0–10 cm) across the N-amendment gradient (0, 7, and 15 kg ha –1 yr –1 ). We hypothesized that localized compositional differences in soil microbiota would constrain the impacts of N addition to a microhabitat distribution that would reflect highly localized geochemical conditions and microbial community composition. The richness and community composition of both bacterial and fungal communities differed significantly by microhabitat and with soil depth in each microhabitat. Only bacterial communities exhibited significant responses to the N addition. Community composition correlated with microhabitat and depth differences in soil geochemical features. Provided the distinct roles of soil bacteria and fungi in major nutrient cycles, the resilience of fungi and sensitivity of bacteria to N amendments suggests that increased N input predicted for many arid ecosystems could shift nutrient cycling toward pathways driven primarily by fungal communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1971

Methodologies for optimal resource allocation to the national space program and new space utilizations. Volume 1: Technical description

The optimal allocation of resources to the national space program over an extended time period requires the solution of a large combinatorial problem in which the program elements are interdependent. The computer model uses an accelerated search technique to solve this problem. The model contains a large number of options selectable by the user to provide flexible input and a broad range of output for use in sensitivity analyses of all entering elements. Examples of these options are budget smoothing under varied appropriation levels, entry of inflation and discount effects, and probabilistic output which provides quantified degrees of certainty that program costs will remain within planned budget. Criteria and related analytic procedures were established for identifying potential new space program directions. Used in combination with the optimal resource allocation model, new space applications can be analyzed in realistic perspective, including the advantage gain from existing space program plant and on-going programs such as the space transportation system.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1972

Gas physics environment of high altitude Jovian entry.

A description of the gas physics environment associated with high-altitude Jupiter entry is reported. Two aspects of environmental analysis are treated. First, limited discussion is devoted to prediction of the heating environment of the probe aeroshell. Prime emphasis is given to the second aspect of the analysis, a description of the gas particle probe interaction phenomena in the rarefied flow regime. Several molecular reemission models have been devised and exercised. Model selection was based upon the desire to bracket the expected reemission characteristics. Consideration was given to examining diffuse reflection as exemplified by the Maxwellian model and lobular, specular reflection as characterized by the Nocilla model. Variation of fundamental input parameters was investigated to determine particle-probe interaction sensitivity. Regardless of neutral species type, results show that the attenuation of the incoming flux of that species by reflected particles is approximately 15 per cent in the stagnation region at 200 km above the cloud tops.

Lefferdo, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1978

The impact of chlorofluoromethane and NO/x/ injections on stratospheric ozone

The chlorofluoromethane problem and the SST problem have been subject to continuing evaluation by the use of one-dimensional stratospheric photochemistry models. The problems to some extent appear to be inversely related to one another through hydroxyl radical reactions; in other words, processes which tend to increase the amount of OH in a model tend to increase the sensitivity of the ozone column to ClX perturbations, while at the same time decreasing the sensitivity to NO(x) perturbations. Evaluations of sensitivity to ClX and NO(x) have varied as new input information has become available and modeling techniques have improved. It is clear that either NO(x) or ClX, or both, will affect the distribution of ozone with altitude.

Stolarski, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Analysis and correlation with theory of rotor lift-limit test data

A wind tunnel test program to define the cruise performance and determine any limitations to lift and propulsive force of a conventional helicopter rotor is described. A 2.96 foot radius model rotor was used. The maximum lift and propulsive force obtainable from an articulated rotor for advance ratios of 0.4 to 0.67, and the blade load growth as the lift approaches the limit are determined. Cruise rotor performance for advance ratios of 0.4 to 0.67 and the sensitivity of the rotor forces and moments to rotor control inputs as the lift limit is approached are established.

Sheffler, M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Wind response characteristics of horizontal axis wind turbines

It was the objective of the work reported here, and in the companion paper 1 . A broader examination of wind turbine dynamic response to turbulence, and attempts to ascertain the features of turbulence that wind turbines are most sensitive to were made. A statistical description of the wind input including all three wind components and allowing linear wind gradients across the rotor disk, was used together with quasi-static aerodynamic theory and an elementary structural model involving only a few degrees of freedom. The idea was to keep the turbine model simple and show the benefits of this type of statistical wind representation before attempting to use a more complex turbine model. As far as possible, the analysis was kept in the simplest form, while still preserving key physical responses.

Thresher, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Ozone Uncertainties Study Algorithm (OUSA)

An algorithm to carry out sensitivities, uncertainties and overall imprecision studies to a set of input parameters for a one dimensional steady ozone photochemistry model is described. This algorithm can be used to evaluate steady state perturbations due to point source or distributed ejection of H2O, CLX, and NOx, besides, varying the incident solar flux. This algorithm is operational on IBM OS/360-91 computer at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center's Science and Applications Computer Center (SACC).

Bahethi, O. P.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Validation and verification of expert systems using evidence flow graphs

This paper describes an ongoing investigation into the use of evidence flow graph techniques for performing V&V of expert systems. This method involves translating a rule-base into an evidence flow graph, a representation originally developed for real-time intelligent systems in distributed environments, and then running simulations of the evidence flow graph. Certain errors can be found during the translation process. The simulations can detect output sensitivity to rule firing order, to order of presentation of inputs, and to small changes in input values.

Becker, Lee A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A satellite retrieval of the shortwave heating of the atmosphere and the surface - Relationship to the general circulation, interannual climate variability, and the cryosphere

Data from several Nimbus-7 instruments and monthly averaged, multilayer delta-Eddington radiative transfer calculations are used to estimate the full vertical profile of the SW heating in the surface and the atmosphere. The noontime physical profile of clouds, water vapor, and surface albedo is used to compute a daily, monthly averaged top-of-atmosphere albedo (TOA), which was produced with noontime Nimbus-7 data, and a profile of SW heating for the atmosphere and surface. The daily, monthly averaged TOA albedo for July 1983 is compared with the ERBE daily, monthly averaged TOA albedo for July 1985. The sensitivity of the vertical SW heating profiles to the retrieval input assumptions is shown.

Charlock, Thomas P.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Investigation of the flight mechanics simulation of a hovering helicopter

The flight mechanics simulation of a hovering helicopter is investigated by comparing the results of two different numerical models with flight test data for a hovering AH-64 Apache. The two models are the U.S. Army BEMAP and the Technion model. These nonlinear models are linearized by applying a numerical linearization procedure. The results of the linear models are compared with identification results in terms of eigenvalues, stability and control derivatives, and frequency responses. Detailed time histories of the responses of the complete nonlinear models, as a result of various pilots' inputs, are compared with flight test results. In addition the sensitivity of the models to various effects are also investigated. The results are discussed and problematic aspects of the simulation are identified.

Chaimovich, M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Optimal design of control systems for prevention of aircraft flight departure

Control system design for general nonlinear flight dynamic models is considered through numerical simulation. The design is accomplished through a numerical optimizer coupled with analysis of flight dynamic equations. In the analysis, the general nonlinear flight dynamic equations with nonlinear aerodynamics are numerically integrated; and the dynamic characteristics needed in the optimization process are then identified from the dynamic response. To assure a reasonable solution, the initial input values of the design variables are estimated through a sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the method, the pitch departure prevention for an F-16 configuration is demonstrated.

Lan, C. Edward↗

NASA NTRS1994

An assessment of satellite temperature distributions used to derive the net diabatic transport for zonally averaged models of the middle atmosphere

Determinations of the zonally averaged and diabatically derived residual mean circulation (RMC) are particularly sensitive to the assumed zonal mean temperature distribution used as input. Several different middle atmosphere satellite temperature distributions have been employed in models and are compared here: a 4-year (late 1978 to early 1982) National Meteorological Center (NMC) climatology, the Barnett and Corney (or BC) climatology, and the 7 months of Nimbus 7 limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) temperatures. All three climatologies are generally accurate below the 10 hPa level, but there are systematic differences between them of up to +/-5 K in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere. The NMC/LIMS differences are evaluated using time series of rocketsonde and reconstructed satellite temperatures at station locations. Much of those biases can be explained by the differing vertical resolutions for the satellite-derived temperatures; the time series of reconstructed LIMS profiles have higher resolution and are more accurate. Because the LIMS temperatures are limited to just two full seasons, one cannot obtain monthly RMCs from them for an annual model calculation. Two alternate monthly climatologies are examined briefly: the 4-year Nimbus 7 stratospheric and mesospheric sounder (SAMS) temperatures and for the mesosphere the distribution from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME), both of which are limb viewers of medium vertical resolution. There are also differences of the order of +/-5 K for those data sets. It is concluded that a major source of error in the determination of diabatic RMCs is a persistent pattern of temperature bias whose characteristics vary according to the vertical resolution of each individual climatology.

Remsberg, Ellis E.↗