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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Toward Predictive RANS and SRS Computations of Turbulent External Flows of Practical Interest

In this work, we investigate the main challenges to prediction of turbulent external flows of practical interest with Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS) and Scale-Resolving Simulation (SRS) models. This represents a crucial step toward further developing and establishing these formulations so they can be confidently utilized in engineering problems without reference data. The study initiates by identifying the major challenges to prediction. A literature review is performed to illustrate their effects in RANS and SRS computations. Afterward, we evaluate the impact of the challenges to prediction by analyzing representative statistically steady and unsteady flows with prominent RANS and SRS methods. These include multiple turbulent viscosity and second-moment RANS closures, and hybrid and bridging SRS models. The results demonstrate the potential of the selected SRS models to predict engineering flows. Yet, they also show the importance of considering the challenges to prediction during the setup and conduction of numerical experiments. These can suppress the advantages of using SRS formulations. The data also indicate that only SRS models can confidently predict statistically unsteady flows. In contrast, the results demonstrate that mean-flow quantities of statistically steady flows can be efficiently calculated with RANS closures, especially second-moment closures. Among the selected SRS methods, bridging models reveal better suited for prediction due to their ability to prevent commutation errors and enable the robust evaluation of numerical and modeling errors. This last property allows the use of a new validation technique that does not require reference data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Polymeric Electron-Selective Contact for Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells with an Efficiency Exceeding 19%

Carrier-selective contacts have become a prominent path forward toward efficient crystalline silicon (c-Si) photovoltaics. Among the proposed contacting materials, organic materials may offer simplified and low-cost processing compared with typical vacuum deposition techniques. In this paper, branched polyethylenimine (b-PEI) is presented as an electron-transport layer (ETL) for c-Si solar cells. The incorporation of a b-PEI interlayer between c-Si(n) and Al leads to a low contact resistivity of 24 mΩ cm 2 . A silicon heterojunction solar cell integrated with b-PEI is demonstrated achieving a power conversion efficiency of 19.4%, which improves the benchmark efficiency of a c-Si solar cell with an organic ETL. This electron selectivity of b-PEI is attributed to its Lewis basicity, i.e., electron-donating ability, promoting favorable band bending at the c-Si surface for electron transport. Moreover, several other Lewis base polymers perform as efficient ETLs in organic/c-Si hybrid devices, indicating Lewis basicity could be a guideline for future organic ETL design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Matrix-Model Simulations Using Quantum Computing, Deep Learning, and Lattice Monte Carlo

Matrix quantum mechanics plays various important roles in theoretical physics, such as a holographic description of quantum black holes, and it underpins the only practical numerical approach to the study of complex high-dimensional supergravity theories. Understanding quantum black holes and the role of entanglement in a holographic setup is of paramount importance for the realization of a quantum theory of gravity. Moreover, a complete numerical understanding of the holographic duality and the emergence of geometric space-time features from microscopic degrees of freedom could pave the way for new discoveries in quantum information science. Euclidean lattice Monte Carlo simulations are the de facto numerical tool for understanding the spectrum of large matrix models and have been used to test the holographic duality. However, they are not tailored to extract dynamical properties or even the quantum wave function of the ground state of matrix models. Quantum computing and deep learning provide potentially useful approaches to study the dynamics of matrix quantum mechanics. If successful in the context of matrix models, these rapidly improving numerical techniques could become the new Swiss army knife of quantum gravity practitioners. In this paper, we perform the first systematic survey for quantum computing and deep-learning approaches to matrix quantum mechanics, comparing them to lattice Monte Carlo simulations. These provide baseline benchmarks before addressing more complicated problems. In particular, we test the performance of each method by calculating the low-energy spectrum.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Silver Nanowire-Indium Zinc Oxide Composite Flexible Transparent Conducting Electrodes Made by Spin- coating and Photonic Curing

Realizing high-throughput, low-cost perovskite solar cell (PSC) manufacturing is highly sought-after in photovoltaic (PV) research in recent years. To fully achieve roll-to-roll (R2R) manufacturing of PSCs, it is important to consider the flexible transparent electrode (TE). PET/ITO is a commonly used substrate for making flexible PSCs. When optimizing transparent conducting materials, there is a tradeoff between sheet resistance (Rsh) and optical transparency. Because commercial PET/ITO substrates are made with slow (~1 m/min) vacuum deposition processes, they tend to be expensive. Therefore, it would be advantageous to develop a high-throughput, R2R compatible, solution-deposition approach for fabricating the TE on PET substrates. While various solution-deposition processes, such as blade coating or slot-die coating, can achieve the desired web speed of > 10 m/min, there is still a need to improve the post-deposition annealing step. One promising post-deposition processing technique is intense-pulsed-light processing, also known as photonic curing. Photonic curing delivers short (0.01 – 100 ms) pulses of broadband (200 – 1500 nm) light from a xenon flash lamp to the samples. Any materials in the sample stack that absorb light will convert the impinging light pulse into heat within the sample, which drives changes in the sample (calcination, phase change, crystallization, etc.). Photonic curing has three main advantages over thermal annealing: 1. Faster processing speed (milliseconds or seconds). 2. Compatibility with plastic substrates. 3. Smaller physical footprint and less wasted energy. Since the light pulses are on for a short time, the intensity can be high while the total energy delivered to the sample is low, minimizing damages to the plastic substrates. In this work, a hybrid TE material is fabricated on PET substrates using photonic curing. The hybrid TE material contains a layer of silver nanowires (AgNWs) and a layer of metal-oxide (InOx, ITO, IZO, etc.). The AgNWs increase the light absorbed by the film during the photonic curing process, which leads to higher processing temperatures, possibly improving the conversion of the metal-oxide layer. The AgNWs also enhance the electrical conductivity of the final TE layer after photonic curing. A AgNW and metal-oxide bilayer is formed by spin coating each solution onto the PET substrate sequentially followed by a single photonic curing process. We use average optical transmittance (Tavg) from 400 to 700 nm and average Rsh to evaluate the TE performance. The following photonic curing parameters are varied to optimize Tavg (maximize) and Rsh (minimize): Pulse voltage, pulse envelope, number of micro-pulses, duty cycle, number of pulses, and pulse repetition rate. Preliminarily, we also observe a significant impact on the TE properties by the volume of AgNW deposited during the spin coating deposition step. Using dispense volumes of 80 µL and 20 µL, we achieve samples with Tavg = 73%, Rsh = 19 Ω/sq, and roughness = 9 nm, and Tavg = 83%, Rsh = 58 Ω/sq, and roughness = 5.6 nm, respectively, after photonic curing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Data‐Driven Discovery of High‐Performance Silver Selenide‐Based Thermoelectric Composites

Optimizing material compositions often enhances thermoelectric performances. However, the large selection of possible base elements and dopants results in a vast composition design space that is too large to systematically search using solely domain knowledge. To address this challenge, a hybrid data-driven strategy that integrates Bayesian optimization (BO) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is proposed to optimize the composition of five elements (Ag, Se, S, Cu, and Te) in AgSe-based thermoelectric materials. Data is collected from the literature to provide prior knowledge for the initial GPR model, which is updated by actively collected experimental data during the iteration between BO and experiments. Within seven iterations, the optimized AgSe-based materials prepared using a simple high-throughput ink mixing and blade coating method deliver a high power factor of 2100 µW m −1 K −2 , which is a 75% improvement from the baseline composite (nominal composition of Ag 2 Se 1 ). In conclusion, the success of this study provides opportunities to generalize the demonstrated active machine learning technique to accelerate the development and optimization of a wide range of material systems with reduced experimental trials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interlayer coupling induced quasiparticles

In this work, we present an exact treatment of layered many-body electronic systems in the presence of interlayer coupling within the Schwinger functional derivative approach on the Keldysh contour. Our transparent approach allows us to clarify the definition of interlayer coupling by showing the independent roles hybridization and interactions play in generating new electronic and magnetic excitations. We find interlayer coupling to induce a variety of plasmons, magnons, and excitons, residing within a layer, traversing between layers, or propagating along the interface. Moreover, we predict interfacial excitations, including an electron-hole pairing pathway, facilitated by previously ignored layer nonconserving interactions. Finally, we briefly explore the consequence of interlayer coupling on a bilayer square lattice system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-Objective Design Optimization of 100 kW Non-Rare-Earth or Reduced-Rare-Earth Machines

The goal of this project is to reduce the size, weight, cost, and losses associated with rotating electric machinery and its associated power electronics for electric and hybrid vehicle applications. In particular, this effort strives to facilitate electric machinery that will meet the requirements set forth in the USDRIVE Electrical and Electronics Technical Team Roadmap of October 2017. This roadmap calls for an electric machine with a peak power of 100 kW, a continuous rated power of 55 kW, a peak speed of less than 20,000 rpm, a volume of no more than 2 liters, a mass of less than 20 kg, and a useful life of 15 years or 300,000 miles of vehicle service. This will be achieved through a combination of (i) new materials, (ii) new electric machine topologies, (iii) advances in power electronics, and (iv) superior design through the use of formal and rigorous multi-objective optimization-based design founded on advanced analysis techniques.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Low-energy magneto-optics of Tb 2 Ti 2 O 7 in a [111] magnetic field

The pyrochlore magnet Tb 2 Ti 2 O 7 shows a lack of magnetic order to low temperatures and is considered to be a quantum spin liquid candidate. Here we perform time-domain THz spectroscopy on high-quality Tb 2 Ti 2 O 7 crystals and study the low-energy excitations as a function of [111] magnetic field with high energy resolution. The low-energy crystal-field excitations change their energies anomalously under magnetic field. Despite several sharp field-dependent changes, we show that the material's spectrum can be described not by phase transitions but by field-dependent hybridization between the low-energy crystal-field levels. We highlight the strong coupling between spin and lattice degrees of freedom in Tb 2 Ti 2 O 7 as evidenced by the magnetic-field tunable crystal-field environment. Calculations based on single ion physics with field-induced symmetry reduction of the crystal-field environment can reproduce our data.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elucidating the phase transformations and grain growth behavior of O3-type sodium-ion layered oxide cathode materials during high temperature synthesis

Understanding the formation mechanism of layered oxide cathodes via solid-state synthesis is imperative to achieving controllability over their materials properties and electrochemical behaviors. In this work, we investigate the phase and microstructure evolution during the synthesis of NaNi 1/3 Fe 1/3 Mn 1/3 O 2 , a model sodium-ion layered oxide cathode, using a combination of imaging, diffraction, and spectroscopic techniques. We unravel the synthetic mechanistic pathways involved in the high-temperature calcination reaction, as well as elaborate the synthesis-microstructure-performance relationship of this material. The formation of the final layered oxide phase involves a gradual transformation through a sodiated oxyhydroxide intermediate. During the reaction, the precursor dehydration reaction dominates at 250–550 °C, while the major sodiation reaction occurs at 550–850 °C. Alongside multiple stages of phase transformations, the final grain structure formation occurs through the continuous growth of the (003) and (104) facets. During the reaction, Mn acts as the charge-compensating element and exhibits depth-dependent characteristics. When the sodiation reaction dominates over dehydration, the reaction intermediates undergo gradual electronic structure changes with increasing temperature, as indicated by the spectral features of TM3d-O2p hybrid states. Calcination duration is also a critical parameter governing the microstructure, surface reactivity, phase fraction distribution and electrochemical performance of the material. The optimal calcination duration was determined to be 18 hours at 850 °C under the conditions evaluated here. Calcination beyond this duration was found to be detrimental to electrochemical performance due to Na and O loss and heterogeneous sodium distribution throughout the particles. Our work sheds light on the complex crystallographic-chemical-microstructural evolution of sodium ion layered oxide cathodes and provides insight into precisely tuning material properties which are intimately linked to battery performances.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Magneto-electroluminescence response in 2D and 3D hybrid organic–inorganic perovskite light emitting diodes

We have studied the magneto-electroluminescence (MEL) response in light emitting diodes based on 2D-(PEA) 2 PbI 4 and 3D-MAPbI 3 hybrid organic–inorganic perovskites at cryogenic temperatures. We found that the MEL is negative, i.e., the EL decreases with the applied field strength, B. In addition, the MEL(B) response has a Lorentzian line shape whose width depends on the perovskite used. We interpret the MEL(B) response using the “Δg mechanism” in which the spin of the injected electron–hole (e–h) pairs oscillates between singlet and triplet configurations due to different precession frequencies of the electron and hole constituents that originate from the difference, Δg, in the electron and hole gyromagnetic constants, g. In this model, the MEL(B) linewidth is inversely proportional to the spin lifetime and Δg. The model used is validated by directly measuring the spin lifetime of photogenerated e–h pairs using the circularly polarized pump–probe transmission technique with 100 fs resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

PANTHER: A Programmable Architecture for Neural Network Training Harnessing Energy-Efficient ReRAM

The wide adoption of deep neural networks has been accompanied by ever-increasing energy and performance demands due to the expensive nature of training them. Additionally, numerous special-purpose architectures have been proposed to accelerate training: both digital and hybrid digital-analog using resistive RAM (ReRAM) crossbars. ReRAM-based accelerators have demonstrated the effectiveness of ReRAM crossbars at performing matrix-vector multiplication operations that are prevalent in training. However, they still suffer from inefficiency due to the use of serial reads and writes for performing the weight gradient and update step. A few works have demonstrated the possibility of performing outer products in crossbars, which can be used to realize the weight gradient and update step without the use of serial reads and writes. However, these works have been limited to low precision operations which are not sufficient for typical training workloads. Moreover, they have been confined to a limited set of training algorithms for fully-connected layers only. To address these limitations, we propose a bit-slicing technique for enhancing the precision of ReRAM-based outer products, which is substantially different from bit-slicing for matrix-vector multiplication only. We incorporate this technique into a crossbar architecture with three variants catered to different training algorithms. To evaluate our design on different types of layers in neural networks (fully-connected, convolutional, etc.) and training algorithms, we develop PANTHER, an ISA-programmable training accelerator with compiler support. Our design can also be integrated into other accelerators in the literature to enhance their efficiency. Our evaluation shows that PANTHER achieves up to 8.02×, 54.21×, and 103× energy reductions as well as 7.16×, 4.02×, and 16× execution time reductions compared to digital accelerators, ReRAM-based accelerators, and GPUs, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tunable magneto-optical properties in MoS 2 via defect-induced exciton transitions

The presence of chalcogen vacancies in monolayer transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) leads to excitons with mixed localized-delocalized character and to reduced valley selectivity. Recent experimental advances in defect design in TMDs allow for a close examination of such mixed exciton states as a function of their degree of circular polarization under external magnetic fields, revealing strongly varying defect-induced magnetic properties. A theoretical understanding of these observations and their physical origins demands a predictive, structure-sensitive theory. In this work, we study the effect of chalcogen vacancies on the exciton magnetic properties in monolayer MoS 2 . Using many-body perturbation theory, we show how the complex excitonic picture associated with the presence of defects—with reduced valley and spin selectivity due to hybridized electron-hole transitions—leads to a structurally controllable exciton magnetic response. We find a variety of $\textit{g}$-factors with changing magnitudes and sign depending on the exciton energy and character. Further, our findings suggest a pathway to tune the nature of the excitons—and by that their magneto-optical properties—through defect architecture.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Priors on red galaxy stochasticity from hybrid effective field theory

ABSTRACT We investigate the stochastic properties of typical red galaxy samples in a controlled numerical environment. We use halo occupation distribution (HOD) modelling to create mock realizations of three separate bright red galaxy samples consistent with data sets used for clustering and lensing analyses in modern galaxy surveys. Second-order Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT) is used as a field-level forward model to describe the full statistical distribution of these tracer samples, and their stochastic power spectra are directly measured and compared to the Poisson shot-noise prediction. While all of the galaxy samples we consider are hosted within haloes with sub-Poisson stochasticity, we observe that the galaxy samples themselves possess stochasticities that range from sub-Poisson to super-Poisson, in agreement with predictions from the halo model. As an application of our methodology, we place priors on the expected degree of non-Poisson stochasticity in cosmological analyses using such samples. We expect these priors will be useful in reducing the complexity of the full parameter space for future analyses using second-order Lagrangian bias models. More generally, the techniques outlined here present the first application of HEFT methods to characterize models of the galaxy–halo connection at the field level, revealing new connections between once-disparate modelling frameworks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

LLNL Kimberlina 1.2 NUFT Simulations June 2018 (v2)

This dataset contains the output 6,000, 3-dimensional reactive multi-phase flow and transport aquifer simulations of brine and CO2 leakage into a protective aquiver in California’s San Joaquin Valley and input data files detailing the geologic mesh, aquifer physical properties and CO2 and brine injection rates. This data set was generated as an ongoing effort with the US DOE National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) to evaluate the effectiveness of monitoring techniques to detect brine and CO2 leakage from legacy wells into underground sources of drinking water overlaying a CO2 storage reservoir. Each simulation contains a unique set of input parameters, generated stochastically. The outputs consist of these upper three geologic layers (from top): the Etchegoin, Macoma-Chanac, Santa Margarita-McLure formations. These simulations span the several distances (1, 3 and 6 km or wells W31-0.2, W31-0.5 and W31-1.0, respectively) from the CO2 injector, initiated from bottom hole pressure and saturation to calculate wellbore leakage from the storage reservoir, with low and high regional groundwater gradients and wellbore leakage into 5 leaky nodes. The dataset includes 1,000 unique simulations for each distance, which each contain a unique aquifer heterogeneity, aquifer and caprock permeability, and two model generations are included with a high permeability (prod07) and hybrid permeability (prod09). The range of permeability distributions is listed in Table 1. Each model generation consists of 3,000 simulations. Included in the dataset are the leakage rates determined from 2D wellbore models which utilize the pressure and CO2 saturation from LBL's reservoir simulations, NUFT mesh files with distributed lithology, NUFT rocktab files which describe the material properties for the geologic layers and the NUFT input files and post-processed output 'ntab' files. Each ntab file contains spatial (rows) and temporal (columns) model output tables for each model cell, the locations (x,y,z) and dimensions for each cells (dx, dy, dz). Table 1. Permeability distribution ranges for prod07 and prod09 model generations Geologic Layer: Permeability Range (log10 m^2) prod07 prod09 Etchegoin -12.92 to -10.92 -13.70 to -11.44 Macoma-Chanac -12.72 to -10.72 -13.50 to -11.24 Santa Margarita-McLure -12.70 to -10.70 -13.48 to -11.22 The input files used to generate the model include which are included in the dataset are: Time series of CO2 leakage input into the model (ex: Q_brn.W31-0.2.sim1000.layers123.tab) Time series of CO2 leakage input into the model (ex: Q_CO2.W31-0.2.sim1000.layers123.tab) Physical properties of the aquifer materials detailing the aquifer porosity, solid density, partitioning coefficients, permeabilities and van-Genuchten parameters detailed in a NUFT rocktab file: (ex: sim1000.usnt.rocktab) Numerical mesh and geologic data assigned to each model cell detailed in a NUFT genmsh format (ex: sim1000.mesh_k16.prod07.trans.genmsh) The primary output parameters are: pH (use absolute value) Change in TDS (mg/kg) Change in Pressure (Pa) Change CO2 gas saturation (fraction range 0.0-1.0) for example, the directory /p/lscratchh/mansoor1/nrap/kimberlina/prod09/mainfiles/sim1000/W31- 0.2 contains: sim1000.W31-0.2.trans.pH.red.ntab sim1000.W31-0.2.no_bg.trans.TDS.red.ntab sim1000.W31-0.2.usnt.P.deltabg.red.ntab sim1000.W31-0.2.usnt.CO2_sat.deltabg.red.ntab Each row in the NTAB files consist of model output per numerical grid cell. Each output file contains 33 columns (variables), including the information of numerical records, geologic location and sizes and the simulated parameter values over time. The first 13 variables are about numerical records and relative geologic information for a simulation grid: 1. index: simulation index 2. i: the ith grid of x-axis 3. j: the ith grid of y-axis 4. k: the ith grid of z-axis 5. element_ref: element reference 6. nuft_ind: nuft index 7. x: grid location in the x axis direction 8. y: grid location in the y axis direction 9. z: grid location in the z axis direction 10. dx: grid length in the x axis direction 11. dy: grid length in the y axis direction 12. dz: grid length in the z axis direction 13. volume: volume of the simulation grid The remainder (14, 15, 16...) variables are the simulated parameter values over time, take Pressure as an example, are: 14. 0.0y: initial pressure per cell. 15. 10.0y: simulated pressure at the end of the 10th year. 16. 20.0y: simulated pressure at the end of the 20th year. ... (repeated for every 10 years until 200 years)... The model extends 10,000 m, 5,000 m and 1,411 m in the x,y and z dimensions, respectively. The mesh consists of 164,832 cells with mesh dimensions of 101 x 51 x 32 (nx, ny, nz), with cell dimensions ranging from 100 m laterally (along x and y-axis) and model layers are as designated in the z-axis: Layer 1: atmosphere (1e-30 m thick) Layer 2: upper caprock (10 m thick) Layers 3-13: Etchegoin (536.23 m thck) Layers 14-27: Macoma-Chanac (679.04 m thick) Layers 28-32: Santa Margarita-McLure (185.94 m thick) The wellbore is placed along node i=51, j=26, and extends vertically along 5 nodes from the top to the bottom of the model. Special instructions when extracting files: Each Gzip archive (ex: prod07.sim1000-sim00099.tar.gz) contains 100 simulations. Gzip archives should be transferred into base directories (ie. In Linux: mkdir prod07; mv prod07.*.tar.gz prod07/.) before extracting, or files will be overwritten. Each sub-simulation tree should have the following file structure pattern (using the linux 'tree' command): |-- prod07 | |-- sim0001 | |-- W31-0.2 | | |-- Q_brn.W31-0.2.sim0001.layers123.tab | | |-- Q_co2.W31-0.2.sim0001.layers123.tab | | |-- sim0001.W31-0.2.no_bg.trans.TDS.red.ntab | | |-- sim0001.W31-0.2.trans.pH.red.ntab | | |-- sim0001.W31-0.2.usnt.CO2_sat.deltabg.red.ntab | | |-- sim0001.W31-0.2.usnt.P.deltabg.red.ntab | |-- W31-0.5 | | |-- Q_brn.W31-0.5.sim0001.layers123.tab | | |-- Q_co2.W31-0.5.sim0001.layers123.tab | | |-- sim0001.W31-0.5.no_bg.trans.TDS.red.ntab | | |-- sim0001.W31-0.5.trans.pH.red.ntab | | |-- sim0001.W31-0.5.usnt.CO2_sat.deltabg.red.ntab | | |-- sim0001.W31-0.5.usnt.P.deltabg.red.ntab | |-- W31-1.0 | | |-- Q_brn.W31-1.0.sim0001.layers123.tab | | |-- Q_co2.W31-1.0.sim0001.layers123.tab | | |-- sim0001.W31-1.0.no_bg.trans.TDS.red.ntab | | |-- sim0001.W31-1.0.trans.pH.red.ntab | | |-- sim0001.W31-1.0.usnt.CO2_sat.deltabg.red.ntab | | |-- sim0001.W31-1.0.usnt.P.deltabg.red.ntab | |-- sim0001.mesh_k16.prod07.trans.genmsh Disclaimer This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, nor any of their employees makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is operated by Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. This report was reviewed and released as LLNL-MI-753464.

aquifer↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ensemble approximate control variate estimators: Applications to multi-fidelity importance sampling.

The recent growth in multifidelity uncertainty quantification has given rise to a large set of variance reduction techniques that leverage information from model ensembles to provide variance reduction for estimates of the statistics of a high-fidelity model. In this paper we provide two contributions: (1) we utilize an ensemble estimator to account for uncertainties in the optimal weights of approximate control variate (ACV) approaches and derive lower bounds on the number of samples required to guarantee variance reduction; and (2) we extend an existing multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS) scheme to leverage control variates. Our approach directly addresses a limitation of many multifidelity sampling strategies that require the usage of pilot samples to estimate covariances. As such we make significant progress towards both increasing the practicality of approximate control variates—for instance, by accounting for the effect of pilot samples—and using multifidelity approaches more effectively for estimating low-probability events. The numerical results indicate our hybrid MFIS-ACV estimator achieves up to 50% improvement in variance reduction over the existing state-of-the-art MFIS estimator, which had already shown an outstanding convergence rate compared to the Monte Carlo method, on several problems of computational mechanics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction

Simulating the Earth's climate is an important and complex problem, thus climate models are similarly complex, comprised of millions of lines of code. In order to appropriately utilize the latest computational and software infrastructure advancements in Earth system models running on modern hybrid computing architectures to improve their performance, precision, accuracy, or all three; it is important to ensure that model simulations are repeatable and robust. This introduces the need for establishing statistical or non-bit-for-bit reproducibility, since bit-for-bit reproducibility may not always be achievable. Here, we propose a short-simulation ensemble-based test for an atmosphere model to evaluate the null hypothesis that modified model results are statistically equivalent to that of the original model. We implement this test in version 2 of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The test evaluates a standard set of output variables across the two simulation ensembles and uses a false discovery rate correction to account for multiple testing. The false positive rates of the test are examined using re-sampling techniques on large simulation ensembles and are found to be lower than the currently implemented bootstrapping-based testing approach in E3SM. We also evaluate the statistical power of the test using perturbed simulation ensemble suites, each with a progressively larger magnitude of change to a tuning parameter. The new test is generally found to exhibit more statistical power than the current approach, being able to detect smaller changes in parameter values with higher confidence.

Kelleher, Michael E. [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2026

Monte Carlo Simulations of Crystal Defects in Open Ensembles

Zero- and two-dimensional crystal defects form in open statistical ensembles, such as the grand canonical, that are usually inaccessible with conventional simulation techniques. This longstanding challenge is overcome with a new Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method that samples energy-biased gradual transformations. In conclusion, the method enables free energy calculations for nonideal point defects and the direct prediction of finite-temperature interface structures.

Grain boundaries↗
DOE OSTI2024

A framework for strategic discovery of credible neural network surrogate models under uncertainty

The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. Here, this study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.

42 ENGINEERING↗