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DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of a 600MW Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant using the Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Tool

This paper presents a techno-economic evaluation of the proposed 600 MW, 8-hour Craig – Hayden pumped storage hydropower project using the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Tool. The analysis integrates plant technical characteristics, regional grid conditions, and market-based operating assumptions to quantify stacked value streams from energy arbitrage, capacity, ancillary services, transmission congestion relief, and reliability. Both price taker and price influencer frameworks are applied to examine the impact of market participation and system interactions on lifecycle economic performance using Benefit - Cost Analysis and Multi - Criteria Decision Analysis. The results show that the price taker approach provides higher revenue estimates based on exogenous price signals, while the price influencer approach captures production cost savings, renewable curtailment reduction, and market price formation, yielding more conservative but system-representative outcomes. The study demonstrates the strategic value of long-duration PSH for enhancing operational flexibility, resource adequacy, and grid reliability in a high-renewable Western Interconnection.

Bhattacharyya, Arjun [ORNL] (ORCID:000900060976046↗

DOE OSTI2024

Powered by dsgrid [Slides]

NREL's demand-side grid (dsgrid) toolkit harnesses decades of sector-specific energy modeling expertise to understand current and future U.S. electricity load for power systems analyses. The primary purpose of dsgrid is to create comprehensive electricity load data sets at high temporal, geographic, sectoral, and end-use resolution. These data sets enable detailed analyses of current patterns and future projections of end-use loads. This presentation will include NREL power grid researcher Elaine Hale.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cyber-Power Co-Simulation for End-to-End Synchrophasor Network Analysis and Applications

The resiliency, reliability and security of the next generation cyber-power smart grid depend upon efficiently leveraging advanced communication and computing technologies. Also, developing real-time data-driven applications is critical to enable wide-area monitoring and control of the cyber-power grid given high-resolution data from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). North American Synchrophasor Initiative Network (NASPlnet) provides guidance for PMU data exchanges. With the advancement in networking and grid operation, it is necessary to evaluate the performance of different data flow architectures suggested by NASPInet and analyze the impact on applications. Therefore, we need a cyber-power co-simulation framework that supports very large-scale co-simulation capable of running in parallel, high-performance computing platforms and capturing real-life network behavior. This work presents an end-to-end automated and user-driven cyber-power co-simulation using NS3 to model communication networks, GridPACK to model the power grid, and HELICS as a co-simulation engine. Comparative analysis of latency in synchrophasor networks and a performance evaluation of a power system stabilizer application utilizing PMU data in an IEEE 39 bus test system is presented using this cosimulation testbed.

Mustafa, Hussain M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Statistical Analysis of Inter-Area Oscillations in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection: A 2017-2023 Perspective

Recent advancements and the accumulation of high-resolution, long-term phasor measurement unit (PMU) data have provided detailed insights into inter-area oscillations in power grids. This study conducts a comprehensive statistical analysis of inter-area oscillations within the United States Eastern Interconnection from 2017 to 2023. Utilizing data captured by the advanced wide-area Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye), this investigation examines the occurrence patterns, dominant frequencies, damping ratios, and excitation mechanisms of these oscillations. Our analysis sheds light on the evolving statistical behaviors of inter-area oscillations, offering updated and critical information for grid operators and planners. The insights gained from this study can be instrumental in enhancing the operational resilience of the power network and guiding strategic developments in grid infrastructure to accommodate future challenges. Additionally, the study discusses emerging challenges associated with the modernization of the power grid, including increased renewable penetration, dynamic load variability, and cyber-physical vulnerabilities that complicate oscillation monitoring and control.

Inter-area oscillations↗

NASA NTRS1987

Geometric description and grid generation for space vehicles

The understanding and analysis of three dimensional fluid behavior around reentry vehicles, like the Space Shuttle Orbiter, is of considerable importance for flight applications. Vehicle designers need pressure, heat transfer, and shear distributions to support design activities. Traditionally these have been obtained by experimental data. Significant reduction in design costs can be obtained if the calculated results based on finite difference procedures are used to verify and supplement experimental results. Computing the flow field over Space Shuttle Orbiter, which has complex cross sectional geometries is a major problem. A first step in this direction is development of body definition and grid generation procedure. In this project a digitized body definition and grid generation procedure, developed earlier at JSC, is modified and applied to the Shuttle Orbiter X24C-10D. Two dimensional grid and body definition for various sections of the space vehicle is obtained using the differential equation method. This study demonstrates that this geometry and grid generation procedure can be applied to other aerospace vehicles such as aerospaceplanes.

Krishna, Madakasira G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Methodology for sensitivity analysis, approximate analysis, and design optimization in CFD for multidisciplinary applications

Fundamental equations of aerodynamic sensitivity analysis and approximate analysis for the two dimensional thin layer Navier-Stokes equations are reviewed, and special boundary condition considerations necessary to apply these equations to isolated lifting airfoils on 'C' and 'O' meshes are discussed in detail. An efficient strategy which is based on the finite element method and an elastic membrane representation of the computational domain is successfully tested, which circumvents the costly 'brute force' method of obtaining grid sensitivity derivatives, and is also useful in mesh regeneration. The issue of turbulence modeling is addressed in a preliminary study. Aerodynamic shape sensitivity derivatives are efficiently calculated, and their accuracy is validated on two viscous test problems, including: (1) internal flow through a double throat nozzle, and (2) external flow over a NACA 4-digit airfoil. An automated aerodynamic design optimization strategy is outlined which includes the use of a design optimization program, an aerodynamic flow analysis code, an aerodynamic sensitivity and approximate analysis code, and a mesh regeneration and grid sensitivity analysis code. Application of the optimization methodology to the two test problems in each case resulted in a new design having a significantly improved performance in the aerodynamic response of interest.

Taylor, Arthur C., III↗

NASA NTRS2017

Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all crop modelers so that other modeling groups can also test their model performance against the reference data and the GGCMI benchmark.

wheat↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity of Spaceborne and Ground Radar Comparison Results to Data Analysis Methods and Constraints

With the availability of active weather radar observations from space from the Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TR.MM) satellite, numerous studies have been performed comparing PR reflectivity and derived rain rates to similar observations from ground-based weather radars (GR). These studies have used a variety of algorithms to compute matching PR and GR volumes for comparison. Most studies have used a fixed 3-dimensional Cartesian grid centered on the ground radar, onto which the PR and GR data are interpolated using a proprietary approach and/or commonly available GR analysis software (e.g., SPRINT, REORDER). Other studies have focused on the intersection of the PR and GR viewing geometries either explicitly or using a hybrid of the fixed grid and PR/GR common fields of view. For the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) of the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, a prototype DPR/GR comparison algorithm based on similar TRMM PR data has been developed that defines the common volumes in terms of the geometric intersection of PR and GR rays, where smoothing of the PR and GR data are minimized and no interpolation is performed. The PR and GR volume-averaged reflectivity values of each sample volume are accompanied by descriptive metadata, for attributes including the variability and maximum of the reflectivity within the sample volume, and the fraction of range gates in the sample average having reflectivity values above an adjustable detection threshold (typically taken to be 18 dBZ for the PR). Sample volumes are further characterized by rain type (Stratiform or Convective), proximity to the melting layer, underlying surface (land/water/mixed), and the time difference between the PR and GR observations. The mean reflectivity differences between the PR and GR can differ between data sets produced by the different analysis methods; and for the GPM prototype, by the type of constraints and categorization applied to the data. In this paper, we will show results comparing the 3-D gridded analysis "black box" approach to the GPM prototype volume-matching approach, using matching TRMM PR and WSR-88D ground radar data. The affects of applying data constraints and data categorizations on the volume-matched data to the results will be shown, and explanations of the differences in terms of data and analysis algorithm characteristics will be presented. Implications of the differences to the determination of PR/DPR calibration differences and use of ground radar data to evaluate the PR and DPR attenuation correction algorithms will be discussed.

Morris, Kenneth R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

DEEP Solar: Data DrivEn Modeling and Analytics for Enhanced System Layer ImPlementation

Realizing the SETO 2030 mission of reducing solar energy costs to 3-5 c/kWh will require innovative enabling research on effective, cost-efficient integration of local PV within distribution systems. However, the intermittent and variable nature of PVs compels operators to impose conservative hosting capacity constraints. Given the extremely high variability of (intermittent and unpredictable) solar energy generation, relaxing the capacity constraints (which are currently around 15%) and achieving 100% or greater integration of renewables will require a fundamental transformation of the power grid via the utilization of exponentially larger amounts of AMI enabled fine-grained data. To address the challenges in increasing the penetration of renewable energy based DERs, this project envisions an Enhanced System Layer (ESL) at the distribution network level that is reliable, cost-effective and scalable to millions of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)/devices. This includes developing: 1) Transformative and highly scalable machine learning based predictive analytics tools that plug into distribution system planning and provide real-time situational awareness at the distribution level for short and long-term operational planning. The tools will be built using novel data-driven energy models of millions of active nodes with AMI, 2) Adaptive stochastic analysis and optimization algorithms for real-time grid operations, 3) Dynamic Scenario Analysis using parallel Cloudenabled implementations with < 1 minute computational cycle times.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Symbolic-Numerical Modeling and Parametric Stability Analysis of DC–AC Power Systems

Hybrid DC-AC power systems integrating diverse inverter-based resources (IBRs) and multi-terminal high-voltage direct current (MTDC) networks represent a promising architecture for future power grids, while introducing challenges for modeling, stability analysis, and control design. This paper develops a hybrid symbolic-numerical modeling framework and tool to characterize the parametric small-signal stability of DC-AC coupled power systems. The proposed approach constructs parametric state-space models to enable efficient representation of system dynamics under varying control parameters and network configurations, with target parameters retained as symbolic variables and the remainder treated numerically. The stability analysis framework covers eigenvalue, sensitivity, and stability boundary and region characterization. Enhanced linear matrix inequality (LMI) techniques are proposed to directly certify small-signal stability over regions of parameter space while also reducing the conservativeness and computational burden. The resulting tools and frameworks enable rapid parametric model construction across diverse grid conditions, thereby facilitating stability-informed control and operation in complex DC–AC power systems.

DC–AC power systems↗

DOE OSTI2022

A techno-economic assessment framework for hydrogen energy storage toward multiple energy delivery pathways and grid services

Hydrogen energy storage (HES) transforms and stores electric energy from the grid into hydrogen, and supplements other energy storage and demand response resources in addressing challenges in renewable-intensive power systems. Understanding how to optimally utilize an HES system to maximize its economic benefits from stacked value streams is highly important to its development and deployment. Here, in this paper, we present a techno-economic assessment framework for an HES system considering three common energy delivery pathways and multiple grid and end-user services. Models are developed to capture the operational capability, flexibility, and constraints associated with hydrogen production, compression, storage, and utilization as well as different grid services in an economic assessment. To define the technically achievable benefits, an optimal dispatch formulation is proposed to maximize the economic benefits over a representative year with an hourly time step considering the trade-offs among different value streams. Representative case studies are designed and carried out to show how system configuration, energy delivery pathways, and grid services may affect economic benefits. It was found that value streams from bundling grid services account for up to 76% of the total benefits and are critical for an HES project to be financially viable.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Summary: Techno-Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics and Battery Energy Storage at a Vietnam Industrial Park

The Clean Energy Investment Accelerator conducted a case study analysis of battery energy storage system (BESS) feasibility for an industrial park in Vietnam using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) REopt platform (a distributed energy modeling and optimization tool) to evaluate how BESS may reduce electricity costs, increase utilization of onsite renewable energy generation, and improve resilience to utility grid outages. This presentation summarizes the analysis and key takeaways.

batteries↗

NASA NTRS1999

Parallelization of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the atmosphere than the observations or forecast alone can provide. Data assimilation plays an increasingly important role in the study of climate and atmospheric chemistry. The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has developed the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) to create assimilated datasets. The core computational components of the GEOS DAS include the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). The need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system poses computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. PSAS is implemented in Fortran 90 using object-based design principles. The analysis portions of the code solve two equations. The first of these is the "innovation" equation, which is solved on the unstructured observation grid using a preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) method. The "analysis" equation is a transformation from the observation grid back to a structured grid, and is solved by a direct matrix-vector multiplication. Use of a factored-operator formulation reduces the computational complexity of both the CG solver and the matrix-vector multiplication, rendering the matrix-vector multiplications as a successive product of operators on a vector. Sparsity is introduced to these operators by partitioning the observations using an icosahedral decomposition scheme. PSAS builds a large (approx. 128MB) run-time database of parameters used in the calculation of these operators. Implementing a message passing parallel computing paradigm into an existing yet developing computational system as complex as PSAS is nontrivial. One of the technical challenges is balancing the requirements for computational reproducibility with the need for high performance. The problem of computational reproducibility is well known in the parallel computing community. It is a requirement that the parallel code perform calculations in a fashion that will yield identical results on different configurations of processing elements on the same platform. In some cases this problem can be solved by sacrificing performance. Meeting this requirement and still achieving high performance is very difficult. Topics to be discussed include: current PSAS design and parallelization strategy; reproducibility issues; load balance vs. database memory demands, possible solutions to these problems.

Larson, J. W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Grid generation, coupling strategies, and spatially-dependent time stepping for ocean-tidal/estuary systems and other ESM components (Final Report)

There are many multiple scale issues in the ocean modeling, including different mesh resolutions (local) and different physical processes (global). In order to gain efficiency and fidelity in modern ESMs, it is vital to develop high quality, highly nonuniform meshes and spatially-dependent time stepping strategies for coupling various climate system components. The USC/FSU team has worked on the design, analysis, and implementation of fast CVT grid generation and novel time- stepping schemes that could address all the requirements for global and regional ocean models on highly nonuniform meshes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Potential Sub-Synchronous Oscillations Using Impedance Scan Approach: Preprint

This paper presents an impedance scan study on the real-world power system in Australia that has observed 17 to 20 Hz intermittent subsynchronous oscillations. Through the impedance scan of each of the IBRs, both individually and collectively, potential resonance modes are identified. The impedance scans were carried out using electromagnetic transient PSCAD models of the network. The network comprises of site-specific, black-boxed models of IBRs supplied by the generators. The impedance scan approach was divided in three major steps: (1) the first step is to identify IBRs where impedance analysis needs to be performed based on the magnitude of oscillations observed at their points of interconnection (POIs); (2) the second step focuses on performing impedance scans at selected IBRs in single-machine infinite-bus (SMIB) configuration to identify internal resonance modes of an IBR and to evaluate if any of these modes become unstable under certain grid conditions; (3) the third step performs impedance scans at a few selected IBRs while connected to the wider network model to obtain the impedance response of both the IBR and the grid - this step evaluates control interactions among IBRs. The impedance scan study found that a few IBRs have an underdamped resonance mode at around 17 Hz, which becomes unstable under a certain operating condition. Another interesting finding was that certain IBRs increase the effective grid impedance seen by another IBR in proximity for a particular operating condition. Under this operating condition, the resulting subsynchronous oscillation mode is more pronounced due to a combination of control interactions among IBRs through the transmission network under study and a resonance mode inside the IBRs.

control interactions↗

NASA NTRS1999

Navier-Stokes Analysis of the Flowfield Characteristics of an Ice Contaminated Aircraft Wing

An analytical study was performed as part of the NASA Lewis support of a National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) aircraft accident investigation. The study was focused on the performance degradation associated with ice contamination on the wing of a commercial turbo-prop-powered aircraft. Based upon the results of an earlier numerical study conducted by the authors, a prominent ridged-ice formation on the subject aircraft wing was selected for detailed flow analysis using 2-dimensional (2-D), as well as, 3-dimensional (3-D) Navier-Stokes computations. This configuration was selected because it caused the largest lift decrease and drag increase among all the ice shapes investigated in the earlier study. A grid sensitivity test was performed to find out the influence of grid spacing on the lift, drag, and associated angle-of-attack for the maximum lift (C(sub lmax)). This study showed that grid resolution is important and a sensitivity analysis is an essential element of the process in order to assure that the final solution is independent of the grid. The 2-D results suggested that a severe stability and control difficulty could have occurred at a slightly higher angle-of-attack (AOA) than the one recorded by the Flight Data Recorder (FDR). This stability and control problem was thought to have resulted from a decreased differential lift on the wings with respect to the normal loading for the configuration. The analysis also indicated that this stability and control problem could have occurred whether or not natural ice shedding took place. Numerical results using an assumed 3-D ice shape showed an increase of the angle at which this phenomena occurred of about 4 degrees. As it occurred with the 2-D case, the trailing edge separation was observed but started only when the AOA was very close to the angle at which the maximum lift occurred.

Chung, J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electrical and Thermal Load Impacts of Three District Heating and Cooling Designs for an Existing Community in Washington, DC

District energy systems that provide building heating and cooling are a promising option to provide low-cost, energy efficient heating and cooling solutions for communities. As some buildings move to electrified heating designs, there may be significant increases in electric grid demand, particularly in the winter. District energy systems may be able to help reduce these high electrical demands on the electric grid, while also providing decreased overall energy consumption with an increased flexibility in electrical energy usage. To evaluate and compare district options for district-based heating and cooling, an existing neighborhood of Washington, DC consisting of 35 existing buildings was selected as a case study. This study models and compares a fourth generation (4G) district heating and cooling systems that provide hot and chilled water from a central plant directly to each prosumer and a fifth generation (5G) district heating and cooling systems that provide near-ambient water via geothermal boreholes to interface with an energy transfer station with a heat pump at each prosumer. These district systems are compared against a baseline of the non-connected buildings with their self-contained and current HVAC systems. The neighborhood was selected as a good candidate for a district system for its diversity of loads (mix of different commercial and property types) and the availability of building characteristics. URBANopt District Energy Systems (DES) was used to model the buildings and create initial Modelica models for the district systems. Finally, the DES models were tuned and simulated in Dymola, and the outputs were post-processed for verification and to calculate the electrical and thermal grid impact metrics. This is the first documentation of this workflow and its complete analysis. The three designed systems are compared via their grid metrics including: total energy consumption, electrical demand peak loads, daily peak-to-valley ratios, and system ramping. A detailed discussion is provided about how each system impacts and interacts with the electric grid.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗