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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36

Precipitation Model Validation in 3rd Generation Aeroturbine Disc Alloys

In support of application of the DARPA-AIM methodology to the accelerated hybrid thermal process optimization of 3rd generation aeroturbine disc alloys with quantified uncertainty, equilibrium and diffusion couple experiments have identified available fundamental thermodynamic and mobility databases of sufficient accuracy. Using coherent interfacial energies quantified by Single-Sensor DTA nucleation undercooling measurements, PrecipiCalc(TM) simulations of nonisothermal precipitation in both supersolvus and subsolvus treated samples show good agreement with measured gamma particle sizes and compositions. Observed longterm isothermal coarsening behavior defines requirements for further refinement of elastic misfit energy and treatment of the parallel evolution of incoherent precipitation at grain boundaries.

Olson, G. B.↗

PolarMERRA: A collaborative effort for NASA’s polar reanalysis

The polar atmosphere is often poorly represented in global models, adversely impacting analyses in these regions and forecasts on much larger scales. PolarMERRA is an initiative that brings together the modeling expertise from NASA’s global modeling and assimilation office (GMAO) and observational expertise from NASA’s Cryospheric sciences lab to assess and improve the representation of polar processes in the NASA’s modelling system in preparation for upcoming and next generation reanalyses. Model improvements in resolution, physics, and data assimilation have been guided by assessment of model skill in the polar regions. Preliminary results from a novel validation framework indicate a reduction in near surface air temperature, turbulent fluxes, and precipitation biases.

Chelsea Parker↗

L'Ralph's Advanced Thermal Model Correlation Using Veritrek

Thermal model correlation uses data from thermal balance tests to better estimate uncertain input parameter values. During the correlation process, input parameters are modified in an iterative manner which can become computationally expensive since this requires that the high-fidelity thermal model be run for each iteration. Depending on the number of thermal balance test points there can be many sets of correlation parameters that satisfy correlation criteria; and having enough data to ascertain the best set of correlation parameters to use, further increases the computational expense. Reduced-order models (ROMs) provide computationally efficient surrogates of high-fidelity models and are often built to reduce development cycle times and cost. By leveraging the speed of reduced-order models and the Correlation Analysis feature in the Veritrek software, the typical computational expense of a traditional thermal model correlation process can be significantly reduced and having access to hundreds of thousands of iteration results provides an advanced means of intelligently determining the best set of correlation parameters to use. The L’Ralph thermal team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center explored the use of the Veritrek software for their thermal model correlation efforts. The ROM that was created allowed for the variation of 15 input parameters to match 70 temperature sensor readouts from 3 thermal balance plateus and required 125 runs of the high-fidelity Thermal Desktop® model to generate a ROM that could predict the detailed model’s results to within 0.2 K (RMS). The ROM was then used to find dozens of plausible correlation parameter values based on L’Ralph instrument test data within a few seconds. By providing several plausible correlation parameter combinations, Veritrek allowed the thermal team to explore different uncertain parameter value combinations and provided insight into how deterministic each input parameter was. This allowed for a more confident decision on the best set of correlation parameters to use, compared to traditional model correlation techniques. In this presentation, the L’Ralph thermal team will be presenting their experience with the Veritrek software and how the software was utilized to provide additional insights during the correlation process.

Daniel Bae↗

L'Ralph's Advanced Thermal Model Correlation Using Veritrek

Thermal model correlation uses data from thermal balance tests to better estimate uncertain input parameter values. During the correlation process, input parameters are modified in an iterative manner which can become computationally expensive since this requires that the high-fidelity thermal model be run for each iteration. Depending on the number of thermal balance test points there can be many sets of correlation parameters that satisfy correlation criteria; and having enough data to ascertain the best set of correlation parameters to use, further increases the computational expense. Reduced-order models (ROMs) provide computationally efficient surrogates of high-fidelity models and are often built to reduce development cycle times and cost. By leveraging the speed of reduced-order models and the Correlation Analysis feature in the Veritrek software, the typical computational expense of a traditional thermal model correlation process can be significantly reduced and having access to hundreds of thousands of iteration results provides an advanced means of intelligently determining the best set of correlation parameters to use. The L’Ralph thermal team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center explored the use of the Veritrek software for their thermal model correlation efforts. The ROM that was created allowed for the variation of 15 input parameters to match 70 temperature sensor readouts from 3 thermal balance plateus and required 125 runs of the high-fidelity Thermal Desktop® model to generate a ROM that could predict the detailed model’s results to within 0.2 K (RMS). The ROM was then used to find dozens of plausible correlation parameter values based on L’Ralph instrument test data within a few seconds. By providing several plausible correlation parameter combinations, Veritrek allowed the thermal team to explore different uncertain parameter value combinations and provided insight into how deterministic each input parameter was. This allowed for a more confident decision on the best set of correlation parameters to use, compared to traditional model correlation techniques. In this presentation, the L’Ralph thermal team will be presenting their experience with the Veritrek software and how the software was utilized to provide additional insights during the correlation process. "

Daniel Bae↗

Climate change signal in global agriculture emerges earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern first surveyed in a harmonized multi-model effort in 2014. We report here on new 21st-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean, and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5 to -6% (SSP126) and +1 to -24% (SSP585) — explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9 shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts — when the change signal emerges from the noise — consistently occurs earlier in the new projections for several main producing regions before 2040. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

climate change↗

A combined surface/volume scattering retracking algorithm for ice sheet satellite altimetry

An algorithm that is based upon a combined surface-volume scattering model is developed. It can be used to retrack individual altimeter waveforms over ice sheets. An iterative least-squares procedure is used to fit the combined model to the return waveforms. The retracking algorithm comprises two distinct sections. The first generates initial model parameter estimates from a filtered altimeter waveform. The second uses the initial estimates, the theoretical model, and the waveform data to generate corrected parameter estimates. This retracking algorithm can be used to assess the accuracy of elevations produced from current retracking algorithms when subsurface volume scattering is present. This is extremely important so that repeated altimeter elevation measurements can be used to accurately detect changes in the mass balance of the ice sheets. By analyzing the distribution of the model parameters over large portions of the ice sheet, regional and seasonal variations in the near-surface properties of the snowpack can be quantified.

Davis, Curt H.↗

Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

Purpose of Review The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). Recent Findings The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. Summary Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

Marine Biogeochemistry↗

Automated Generation of Fault Management Artifacts from a Simple System Model

Our understanding of off-nominal behavior - failure modes and fault propagation - in complex systems is often based purely on engineering intuition; specific cases are assessed in an ad hoc fashion as a (fallible) fault management engineer sees fit. This work is an attempt to provide a more rigorous approach to this understanding and assessment by automating the creation of a fault management artifact, the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) through querying a representation of the system in a SysML model. This work builds off the previous development of an off-nominal behavior model for the upcoming Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. We further developed the previous system model to more fully incorporate the ideas of State Analysis, and it was restructured in an organizational hierarchy that models the system as layers of control systems while also incorporating the concept of "design authority". We present software that was developed to traverse the elements and relationships in this model to automatically construct an FMEA spreadsheet. We further discuss extending this model to automatically generate other typical fault management artifacts, such as Fault Trees, to efficiently portray system behavior, and depend less on the intuition of fault management engineers to ensure complete examination of off-nominal behavior.

Spinup and Orient↗

A Generative Control Capability for a Model-based Executive

This paper describes Burton, a core element of a new generation of goal-directed model-based autonomous executives. This executive makes extensive use of component-based declarative models to analyze novel situations and generate novel control actions both at the goal and hardware levels. It uses an extremely efficient online propositional inference engine to efficiently determine likely states consistent with current observations and optimal target states that achieve high level goals. It incorporates a flexible generative control sequencing algorithm within the reactive loop to bridge the gap between current and target states. The system is able to detect and avoid damaging and irreversible situations, After every control action it uses its model and sensors to detect anomalous situations and immediately take corrective action. Efficiency is achieved through a series of model compilation and online policy construction methods, and by exploiting general conventions of hardware design that permit a divide and conquer approach to planning. The paper presents a formal characterization of Burton's capability, develops efficient algorithms, and reports on experience with the implementation in the domain of spacecraft autonomy. Burton is being incorporated as one of the key elements of the Remote Agent core autonomy architecture for Deep Space One, the first spacecraft for NASA's New Millenium program.

Williams, Brian C.↗

3-D thermal analysis using finite difference technique with finite element model for improved design of components of rocket engine turbomachines for Space Shuttle Main Engine SSME

Three-dimensional finite element models were generated and transferred into three-dimensional finite difference models to perform transient thermal analyses for the SSME high pressure fuel turbopump's first stage nozzles and rotor blades. STANCOOL was chosen to calculate the heat transfer characteristics (HTCs) around the airfoils, and endwall effects were included at the intersections of the airfoils and platforms for the steady-state boundary conditions. Free and forced convection due to rotation effects were also considered in hollow cores. Transient HTCs were calculated by taking ratios of the steady-state values based on the flow rates and fluid properties calculated at each time slice. Results are presented for both transient plots and three-dimensional color contour isotherm plots; they were also converted into universal files to be used for FEM stress analyses.

Sohn, Kiho D.↗

Launch Vehicle Debris Models and Crew Vehicle Ascent Abort Risk

For manned space launch systems, a reliable abort system is required to reduce the risks associated with a launch vehicle failure during ascent. Understanding the risks associated with failure environments can be achieved through the use of physics-based models of these environments. Debris fields due to destruction of the launch vehicle is one such environment. To better analyze the risk posed by debris, a physics-based model for generating launch vehicle debris catalogs has been developed. The model predicts the mass distribution of the debris field based on formulae developed from analysis of explosions. Imparted velocity distributions are computed using a shock-physics code to model the explosions within the launch vehicle. A comparison of the debris catalog with an existing catalog for the Shuttle external tank show good comparison in the debris characteristics and the predicted debris strike probability. The model is used to analyze the effects of number of debris pieces and velocity distributions on the strike probability and risk.

Gee, Ken↗

Random Testing and Model Checking: Building a Common Framework for Nondeterministic Exploration

Two popular forms of dynamic analysis, random testing and explicit-state software model checking, are perhaps best viewed as search strategies for exploring the state spaces introduced by nondeterminism in program inputs. We present an approach that enables this nondeterminism to be expressed in the SPIN model checker's PROMELA language, and then lets users generate either model checkers or random testers from a single harness for a tested C program. Our approach makes it easy to compare model checking and random testing for models with precisely the same input ranges and probabilities and allows us to mix random testing with model checking's exhaustive exploration of non-determinism. The PROMELA language, as intended in its design, serves as a convenient notation for expressing nondeterminism and mixing random choices with nondeterministic choices. We present and discuss a comparison of random testing and model checking. The results derive from using our framework to test a C program with an effectively infinite state space, a module in JPL's next Mars rover mission. More generally, we show how the ability of the SPIN model checker to call C code can be used to extend SPIN's features, and hope to inspire others to use the same methods to implement dynamic analyses that can make use of efficient state storage, matching, and backtracking.

dynamic analysis↗

Time optimal control of a jet engine using a quasi-Hermite interpolation model

This work made preliminary efforts to generate nonlinear numerical models of a two-spooled turbofan jet engine, and subject these models to a known method of generating global, nonlinear, time optimal control laws. The models were derived numerically, directly from empirical data, as a first step in developing an automatic modelling procedure.

Comiskey, J. G.↗

A Method for Generating Reduced-Order Linear Models of Multidimensional Supersonic Inlets

Simulation of high speed propulsion systems may be divided into two categories, nonlinear and linear. The nonlinear simulations are usually based on multidimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methodologies and tend to provide high resolution results that show the fine detail of the flow. Consequently, these simulations are large, numerically intensive, and run much slower than real-time. ne linear simulations are usually based on large lumping techniques that are linearized about a steady-state operating condition. These simplistic models often run at or near real-time but do not always capture the detailed dynamics of the plant. Under a grant sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio, a new method has been developed that can be used to generate improved linear models for control design from multidimensional steady-state CFD results. This CFD-based linear modeling technique provides a small perturbation model that can be used for control applications and real-time simulations. It is important to note the utility of the modeling procedure; all that is needed to obtain a linear model of the propulsion system is the geometry and steady-state operating conditions from a multidimensional CFD simulation or experiment. This research represents a beginning step in establishing a bridge between the controls discipline and the CFD discipline so that the control engineer is able to effectively use multidimensional CFD results in control system design and analysis.

Chicatelli, Amy↗

Lidar-Based Estimates of Above-Ground Biomass in the Continental US and Mexico Using Ground, Airborne, and Satellite Observations

Existing national forest inventory plots, an airborne lidar scanning (ALS) system, and a space profiling lidar system (ICESat-GLAS) are used to generate circa 2005 estimates of total aboveground dry biomass (AGB) in forest strata, by state, in the continental United States (CONUS) and Mexico. The airborne lidar is used to link ground observations of AGB to space lidar measurements. Two sets of models are generated, the first relating ground estimates of AGB to airborne laser scanning (ALS) measurements and the second set relating ALS estimates of AGB (generated using the first model set) to GLAS measurements. GLAS then, is used as a sampling tool within a hybrid estimation framework to generate stratum-, state-, and national-level AGB estimates. A two-phase variance estimator is employed to quantify GLAS sampling variability and, additively, ALS-GLAS model variability in this current, three-phase (ground-ALS-space lidar) study. The model variance component characterizes the variability of the regression coefficients used to predict ALS-based estimates of biomass as a function of GLAS measurements. Three different types of predictive models are considered in CONUS to determine which produced biomass totals closest to ground-based national forest inventory estimates - (1) linear (LIN), (2) linear-no-intercept (LNI), and (3) log-linear. For CONUS at the national level, the GLAS LNI model estimate (23.95 +/- 0.45 Gt AGB), agreed most closely with the US national forest inventory ground estimate, 24.17 +/- 0.06 Gt, i.e., within 1%. The national biomass total based on linear ground-ALS and ALS-GLAS models (25.87 +/- 0.49 Gt) overestimated the national ground-based estimate by 7.5%. The comparable log-linear model result (63.29 +/-1.36 Gt) overestimated ground results by 261%. All three national biomass GLAS estimates, LIN, LNI, and log-linear, are based on 241,718 pulses collected on 230 orbits. The US national forest inventory (ground) estimates are based on 119,414 ground plots. At the US state level, the average absolute value of the deviation of LNI GLAS estimates from the comparable ground estimate of total biomass was 18.8% (range: Oregon,−40.8% to North Dakota, 128.6%). Log-linear models produced gross overestimates in the continental US, i.e., N2.6x, and the use of this model to predict regional biomass using GLAS data in temperate, western hemisphere forests is not appropriate. The best model form, LNI, is used to produce biomass estimates in Mexico. The average biomass density in Mexican forests is 53.10 +/- 0.88 t/ha, and the total biomass for the country, given a total forest area of 688,096 sq km, is 3.65 +/- 0.06 Gt. In Mexico, our GLAS biomass total underestimated a 2005 FAO estimate (4.152 Gt) by 12% and overestimated a 2007/8 radar study's figure (3.06 Gt) by 19%.

Hybrid 3-Phase sampling↗