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At least 649 records · Page 36

Cost optimization of high recovery single stage gap membrane distillation

Estimating the cost of membrane distillation (MD) processes at scale is confounded by the vast array of possible process configurations, module configurations, and operating conditions and the extreme sensitivity of MD costs to these parameters. This work develops a comprehensive MD cost optimization framework for minimizing the levelized cost of water (LCOW) as a function of feed salinity and temperature. Our single stage gap MD model fully captures solution properties, heat transfer, and mass transfer relationships in the modules to determine the cost optimal design as a function of multiple decision variables, including process configuration (feed location and connectivity between the hot and cold-side), the gap type (air, permeate, conductive), equipment sizes (membrane, heater, chiller, and heat exchanger units), and operating conditions (flow rates, hot and cold side temperatures, and heating and cooling duties). We estimate that the minimum LCOW of conductive gap MD ranges between $\$$10 and $\$$16 per m 3 for feed salinities of 25 g/L to 200 g/L and water recoveries of 30%–75%. Further, we update several heuristic assumptions for cost optimal system operation, including: increased thermal conductivity of the gap decreases system costs; cost optimal MD operates at the highest allowable temperature; and the LCOW is a strong function of brine salinity. Finally, we find that improving membrane properties and lowering heating and cooling costs will provide only modest reductions in costs (<25%).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario

In recent years, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have developed methodologies to assess the vulnerabilities of nuclear plants against site specific extreme hazards. In many cases, advanced simulation tools are being considered to simulate multi-physics, multi-scale phenomena and to evaluate vulnerability of nuclear facilities. The credibility of advanced simulation tools is assessed based on a formal verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification procedure. One of the key limitations in validation is the lack of relevant experimental data at system-level. This limitation leads to a decrease in the confidence of system-level risk predictions. Therefore, a robust validation framework is needed to formalize the confidence in predictive capability of advanced simulation results. Additionally, this study enhances the existing risk informed validation methodology, originally proposed by Kwag et al. [1] and Bodda et al. [2], by developing additional attributes and a new set of validation indicies for a complete and wider applicability of the framework. In this manuscript, the methodology to identify the critical path that leads to the system-level failure is illustrated. The overall validation is checked for completeness and consistency by comparing the critical path for both the system-level simulation and experimental models. The applicability of the code for an intended application is represented in terms of various maturity levels and helps in the process of decision making.

42 ENGINEERING↗

From Weibel seeds to dynamo beyond pair-plasmas

Bridging the spatiotemporal scales of magnetic seed field generation and subsequent dynamo amplification in the weakly collisional intracluster medium presents an extreme numerical challenge. We perform collisionless turbulence simulations with initially unmagnetised electrons that capture both magnetic seed generation via the electron Weibel instability and the ensuing dynamo amplification. Going beyond existing pair-plasma studies, we use an ion-to-electron mass ratio of 100 for which we find electron and ion dynamics are sufficiently decoupled. These simulations are enabled by the 10-moment collisionless fluid solver of Gkeyll, which evolves the full pressure tensor for all species. The electron heat-flux closure regulates pressure isotropisation and effectively sets the magnetic Reynolds number. We investigate how the strength of the closure influences the transition between a regime reminiscent of previous kinetic pair-plasma simulations and a regime exhibiting dynamo behaviour qualitatively similar to magnetohydrodynamics.

astrophysical plasmas↗

Reconciling the Different Apparent Decay Pathways for Iron(III) Tetraphenylporphyrin Chloride: Evidence for Excited State Branching

Detailed understanding of the photophysical properties of metalloporphyrins is key to rationally exploiting them in a variety of applications ranging from photocatalysis to opto-magnetics. Previous studies of the ferric-tetraphenylporphyrin chloride have provided contradictory descriptions of the excited state evolution. Optical transient-absorption suggested initial formation of a ππ* excited state, followed by ligand-to-metal charge-transfer (LMCT) from the porphyrin ring and then decay on the ∼2 ps time scale to a metal-centered excited state that had a lifetime of ∼15 ps. In contrast, femtosecond extreme ultraviolet transient-absorption at the Fe M 2,3 -edge, while agreeing on the initial formation of an LMCT state, found evidence that this decayed in ∼2 ps to the ground state. Here, we have used K-edge transient X-ray absorption and X-ray emission, together with time-resolved X-ray solution scattering to explore this system. Based on these data, we propose a new model, consistent with both the earlier and the current data, in which photoexcited FeTPPCl evolves through three different states on the LMCT manifold, with the ∼2 ps decay now seen to involve a branching between return to the ground state (∼70%) and formation of a long-lived LMCT state (∼30%).

Excited states↗

Island Rainfall Enhancement in the Maritime Continent

Abstract The hypothesis that the islands of the Maritime Continent (MC) enhance total rainfall and time‐mean upward motion is tested using a convection‐permitting regional model. Sensitivity experiments with the islands removed greatly diminish both rainfall and upward motion, supporting the hypothesis. We examine the individual factors in this enhancement, isolating the impacts of the diurnal cycle from those of basic‐state (i.e., constant) forcing of orography and the land surface. We find that the basic‐state forcing by land is the only factor that substantially enhances total island rainfall, specifically through the enhancement of mean surface heat fluxes. The diurnal cycle and orographic forcing, however, substantially enhance rainfall in the seas surrounding the islands. Moreover, the diurnal cycle is found to be essential for promoting mesoscale circulations on the spatial scales of the islands, which are critical to both the upscale growth of deep convection and the most extreme rainfall rates.

Ruppert, Jr., James H.↗

Global Warming Amplifies Outdoor Extreme Moist Heat During the Indian Summer Monsoon

Because of the climatological prevalence of hot, humid conditions, moist heat extremes are a significant challenge to the health and wellbeing of the people in India. While research has demonstrated the importance of summer monsoon to moist heat in India, impact of monsoon–break and warm spells in modulating extreme moist heat regionally has not been fully investigated. Here we investigate moist heat extremes, as measured by the Wet–Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) metric, specifically during monsoon and monsoon–break periods and find that they pose a major threat to physical labor and health relative to other seasons. During the 1951–2020 break period, an increase in area exposed (~42.76 million km 2 ), representing at least 670 million people, to extreme and detrimental WBGT values >31°C occur. Our results imply that future studies on extreme moist heat must pay close attention to the variation of weather systems on synoptic to subseasonal time scales that are superimposed on the seasonal monsoon migration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Sediment Dynamics During Urban Flooding: Application to Hurricane Harvey in Houston

Floodwater can mobilize and redistribute large volumes of sediment from upland to downstream urban areas, threatening infrastructure, water quality, and ecosystem health. However, existing modeling approaches often fail to capture sediment dynamics in urban floodplains due to the lack of integration between upland hydrological processes and riverine sediment transport. This study presents the first integrated modeling framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land component, which simulates runoff and hillslope erosion, with TELEMAC-GAIA, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. This framework enables the fully distributed, process-based simulation of high-resolution (as fine as 30 m) sediment dynamics from hillslopes to floodplains. Applied to a highly urbanized watershed in Houston during Hurricane Harvey, this framework reproduced observed water levels at 16 USGS gauges (median R 2 = 0.83 and KGE = 0.78), key sediment dynamics such as sediment transport and deposition processes, and reproduced spatial deposition patterns consistent with LiDAR-derived data. Based on the simulation, we estimate 8.0 million m 3 of event-scale sediment deposition, including 5.7 million m 3 trapped in the flood-control reservoirs and 2.3 million m 3 deposited along major channels and floodplains. Using a representative unit removal cost, this corresponds to an estimated dredging cost of $581 million for total deposition. These results provide a first-order, physically based quantification of Harvey-scale sediment impacts. This study provides a valuable tool for the holistic analysis of sediment dynamics triggered by extreme urban flooding, supporting flood-resilience planning. More broadly, it highlights the importance of integrating physically based hydrological processes for urban flooding and sediment research.

Hurricane Harvey↗

Effects of grain size and small-scale bedform architecture on CO 2 saturation from buoyancy-driven flow

Small-scale (mm-dm scale) heterogeneity has been shown to significantly impact CO 2 migration and trapping. To investigate how and why different aspects of small-scale heterogeneity affect the amount of capillary trapping during buoyancy-driven upward migration of CO 2 , we conducted modified invasion percolation simulations on heterogeneous domains. Realistic simulation domains are constructed by varying two important aspects of small-scale geologic heterogeneity: sedimentary bedform architecture and grain size contrast between the matrix and the laminae facies. Buoyancy-driven flow simulation runs cover 59 bedform architecture and 40 grain size contrast cases. Simulation results show that the domain effective CO 2 saturation is strongly affected by both grain size and bedform architecture. At high grain size contrasts, bedforms with continuous ripple lamination at the cm scale tend to retain higher CO 2 saturation than bedforms with discontinuous or cross lamination. In addition, the “extremely well sorted” grain sorting cases tend to have lower CO 2 saturation than expected for cross-laminated domains. Finally, both a denser CO 2 phase and greater interfacial tension increase CO 2 saturation. Again, variation in fluid properties seems to have a greater effect on CO 2 saturation for cross-laminated domains. This result suggests that differences in bedform architecture can impact how CO 2 saturation values respond to other variables such as grain sorting and fluid properties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Arctic-associated increased fluctuations of midlatitude winter temperature in the 1.5° and 2.0° warmer world

In recent decades, the interior regions of Eurasia and North America have experienced several unprecedentedly cold winters despite the global surface air temperature increases. One possible explanation of these increasing extreme cold winters comes from the so-called Warm Arctic Cold Continent (WACC) pattern, reflecting the effects of the amplified Arctic warming in driving the circulation change over surrounding continents. This study analyzed reanalysis data and model experiments forced by different levels of anthropogenic forcing. It is found that WACC exists on synoptic scales in observations, model’s historical and even future runs. In the future, the analysis suggests a continued presence of WACC but with a slightly weakened cold extreme due to the overall warming. Warm Arctic events under the warmer climate will be associated with not only a colder continent in East Asia but also a warmer continent, depending on the teleconnection process that is also complicated by the warmer Arctic. Such an increasingly association suggests a reduction in potential predictability of the midlatitude winter anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Discovery and analysis of low-surface-brightness galaxies in the environment of NGC 1052

The environment of NGC 1052 has recently attracted much attention because of the presence of low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) with apparently “exotic” properties, making it a region of high interest for the detection of new objects. Here, we used public deep photometric data from the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey to carry out a comprehensive search for LSBGs over a wide region of 6 × 6 degrees, equivalent to 2 × 2 Mpc at the distance of NGC 1052. We detected 42 LSBGs with r eff > 5 arcsec and μ g (0) > 24 mag arcsec -2 , of which 20 are previously undetected objects. Among all the newly detected objects, RCP 32 stands out with extreme properties: r eff = 23.0 arcsec and $\langle$μ g $\rangle$ eff = 28.6 mag arcsec -2 . This makes RCP 32 one of the lowest surface brightness galaxies ever detected through integrated photometry, located at just 10 arcmin from the extensively studied NGC 1052-DF2. We explored the presence of globular clusters (GCs) in the LSBGs. We marginally detected a GC system in RCP 32, and argue that this LSBG is of great interest for follow-up observations given its extremely low baryon density. After analyzing the distribution of galaxies with available spectroscopy, we identified a large-scale structure of approximately 1 Mpc that is well isolated in redshift space and centered on NGC 1052. The spatial correlation analysis between the LSBGs and this large-scale structure suggests their association. However, when exploring the distribution of effective radius, we find an overpopulation of large LSBGs (r eff > 15 arcsec) located close to the line of sight of NGC 1052. We argue that this is suggestive of a substructure with similar radial velocity in sight projection, but at a closer distance, to which some of these apparently larger LSBGs could be associated. However, possible effects derived from tidal interactions are worthy of further study. Our work expands the catalog of LSBGs with new interesting objects and provides a detailed environmental context for the study of LSBGs in this region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fast and efficient Sb-based type-II phototransistors integrated on silicon

Increasing the energy efficiency and reducing the footprint of on-chip photodetectors enable dense optical interconnects for emerging computational and sensing applications. While heterojunction phototransistors (HPTs) exhibit high energy efficiency and negligible excess noise factor, their gain-bandwidth product (GBP) has been inferior to that of avalanche photodiodes at low optical powers. Here, we demonstrate that utilizing type-II energy band alignment in an Sb-based HPT results in six times smaller junction capacitance per unit area and a significantly higher GBP at low optical powers. These type-II HPTs were scaled down to 2 μm in diameter and fully integrated with photonic waveguides on silicon. Thanks to their extremely low dark current and high internal gain, these devices exhibit a GBP similar to the best avalanche devices (∼270 GHz) but with one order of magnitude better energy efficiency. Their energy consumption is about 5 fJ/bit at 3.2 Gbps, with an error rate below 10−9 at −25 dBm optical power at 1550 nm. These features suggest new opportunities for creating highly efficient and compact optical receivers based on phototransistors with type-II band alignment.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Hidden order across online extremist movements can be disrupted by nudging collective chemistry

Disrupting the emergence and evolution of potentially violent online extremist movements is a crucial challenge. Extremism research has analyzed such movements in detail, focusing on individual- and movement-level characteristics. But are there system-level commonalities in the ways these movements emerge and grow? Here we compare the growth of the Boogaloos, a new and increasingly prominent U.S. extremist movement, to the growth of online support for ISIS, a militant, terrorist organization based in the Middle East that follows a radical version of Islam. We show that the early dynamics of these two online movements follow the same mathematical order despite their stark ideological, geographical, and cultural differences. The evolution of both movements, across scales, follows a single shockwave equation that accounts for heterogeneity in online interactions. These scientific properties suggest specific policies to address online extremism and radicalization. We show how actions by social media platforms could disrupt the onset and ‘flatten the curve’ of such online extremism by nudging its collective chemistry. Our results provide a system-level understanding of the emergence of extremist movements that yields fresh insight into their evolution and possible interventions to limit their growth.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Evaluating the Representations of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Associated Precipitation in Reanalyses With Satellite Observations

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filaments of enhanced horizontal moisture transport in the atmosphere. Due to their prominent role in the meridional moisture transport and regional weather extremes, ARs have been studied extensively in recent years. Yet, the representations of ARs and their associated precipitation on a global scale remains largely unknown. In this study, we developed an AR detection algorithm specifically for satellite observations using moisture and the geostrophic winds derived from 3D geopotential height field from the combined retrievals of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit on NASA Aqua satellite. This algorithm enables us to develop the first global AR catalog based solely on satellite observations. The satellite–based AR catalog is then combined with the satellite–based precipitation (Integrated Muti–SatellitE Retrievals for GPM) to evaluate the representations of ARs and AR–induced precipitation in reanalysis products. Here our results show that the spreads in AR frequency and AR length distribution are generally small across data sets, while the spread in AR width is relatively larger. Reanalysis products are found to consistently underestimate both mean and extreme AR–related precipitation. However, all reanalyses tend to precipitate too often under AR conditions, especially over low latitude regions. This finding is consistent with the “drizzling” bias which has plagued generations of climate models. Overall, the findings of this study can help to improve the representations of ARs and associated precipitation in reanalyses and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sintering inhibition enables hierarchical porosity with extreme resistance to degradation during redox cycling of Fe-Mo foams

High-temperature (800 ºC) steam-hydrogen redox cycling, relevant to grid-scale energy storage, is studied for iron-based freeze-cast lamellar foams. In contrast to previously studied Fe, Fe-Ni, and Fe-Co foams that rapidly degrade, Fe-25Mo foams feature a much-enhanced structural damage resistance. Utilizing in-situ x-ray diffraction, microscopy, and x-ray tomography, strong sintering inhibition is observed in Fe-Mo foams, creating a hierarchically porous lamellar structure. This leads to (i) wide channels between lamellae, enabling high macroscopic porosity (~78%) which can accommodate gas flow as well as volumetric expansion without lamellar contact, and (ii) microporosity within lamellae, providing additional free volume to accommodate expansion during oxidation, limiting both swelling of the lamellae and the formation of Kirkendall pores. Finally, these combined effects enable a near-complete reversibility of the microstructure during cycling, preventing damage produced via internal lamellar buckling, cracking, contacting and sintering, with a remarkably high porosity (65%) remaining after 50 consecutive redox cycles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

FedCSpc: A Cross-Silo Federated Learning System With Error-Bounded Lossy Parameter Compression

Cross-Silo federated learning is widely used for scaling deep neural network (DNN) training over data silos from different locations worldwide while guaranteeing data privacy. Communication has been identified as the main bottleneck when training large-scale models due to large-volume model parameters and gradient transmission across public networks with limited bandwidth. Most previous works focus on gradient compression, while limited work tries to compress parameters that can not be ignored and extremely affect communication performance during the training. Here, to bridge this gap, we propose FedCSpc: an efficient cross-silo federated learning system with an XAI-driven adaptive parameter compression strategy for large-scale model training. Our work substantially differs from existing gradient compression techniques due to the distinct data features of gradient and parameter. The key contributions of this paper are fourfold. (1) Our designed FedCSpc proposes to compress the parameter during the training using the state-of-the-art error-bounded lossy compressor – SZ3. (2) We develop an adaptive compression error bound adjustment algorithm to guarantee the model accuracy effectively. (3) We exploit an efficient approach to utilize the idle CPU resources of clients to compress the parameters. (4) We perform a comprehensive evaluation with a wide range of models and benchmarks on a GPU cluster with 65 GPUs. Results show that FedCSpc can achieve the same model accuracy as FedAvg while reducing the data volume of parameters and gradients in communication by up to 7.39× and 288×, respectively. With 32 clients on a 4 Gb size model, FedCSpc significantly outperforms FedAvg in wall-clock time in the emulated WAN environment (at the bandwidth of 1 Gbps or lower without loss of generality).

SZ3↗

Anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation over global land areas seen in multiple observational datasets

The intensification of extreme precipitation under anthropogenic forcing is robustly projected by global climate models, but highly challenging to detect in the observational record. Large internal variability distorts this anthropogenic signal. Models produce diverse magnitudes of precipitation response to anthropogenic forcing, largely due to differing schemes for parameterizing subgrid-scale processes. Meanwhile, multiple global observational datasets of daily precipitation exist, developed using varying techniques and inhomogeneously sampled data in space and time. Previous attempts to detect human influence on extreme precipitation have not incorporated model uncertainty, and have been limited to specific regions and observational datasets. Using machine learning methods that can account for these uncertainties and capable of identifying the time evolution of the spatial patterns, we find a physically interpretable anthropogenic signal that is detectable in all global observational datasets. Machine learning efficiently generates multiple lines of evidence supporting detection of an anthropogenic signal in global extreme precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fast Gaussian Process Estimation for Large-Scale In Situ Inference using Convolutional Neural Networks

Exascale computing will bring with it significant I/O limitations. One foreseeable consequence of such restrictions is that the user can save only a small fraction of complex simulation data to disk for subsequent analysis. An alternative is to fit statistical models to data in situ, that is, inside the simulation as it runs. This option requires extremely fast statistical estimation to avoid slowing down the simulation. Gaussian processes (GPs) have state-of-the-art predictive performance for modeling spatial data. However, standard estimation methods for GPs scale quite poorly to large data sets as parameter estimation requires inverting a covariance matrix to the size of the data set. In the presented work, we use a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict the GP parameters for a spatial data set, from a simulation or otherwise, rather than optimize the parameters directly. Here, our presented case study models spatial data from E3SM, the Department of Energy’s Exascale climate model. The CNN is trained on synthetic data simulated from GP models with known parameters and then applied to data from the climate simulation. In the presented examples, the neural network scheme produces parameter estimates that compare well with standard methods such as maximum likelihood estimation in predictive performance but is obtained four orders of magnitude faster.

big data↗

Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late-century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty-first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California’s coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California’s Central Valley.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗