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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Energy storage at all timescales, including the seasonal scale, plays a pivotal role in enabling increased penetration levels of wind and solar photovoltaic energy sources in power systems.
While equation-based object-oriented modeling language Modelica can evaluate practical energy improvements for district cooling systems, few have adopted Modelica for this type of large-scale thermo-fluid system. Further, to our best knowledge, district cooling modeling studies have yet to include hydraulics in piping networks alongside plant models featuring realistic mechanical systems and controls. These are critical details to include when looking to make energy and control improvements in many physical system installations. To fill these gaps, this study released new open-source district cooling models at the Modelica Buildings Library and leveraged these models for a real-world case study at the University of Colorado Boulder. Here, the site includes six buildings connected to a central chiller plant featuring a waterside economizer. Several energy saving strategies are pursued based on the validated model, including control setpoint optimization, equipment modification, and pump setpoint adjustments. Results indicate that a combination of the studied measures can save the campus annually 84.6 MWh of energy, 8.9% of electricity costs, 58.0 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, while the waterside economizer cuts down chillers’ run times by 201 days/year, reducing maintenance costs and extending chiller life.
Coal-based bricks and blocks (CBBs) were formulated using anthracite and thermoplastic binder. Lab scale test composites were formed by hot-press molding and commercial extrusion for test articles and for a full-scale prototype. Formulations and test matrices followed a systematic experimental design to examine the effects of and interactions among three primary independent variables: a) thermoplastic type, b) weight fractions of binder relative to the total anthracite weight, and c) relative proportions of large versus small (milled) anthracite size fractions. Technical performance metrics include compressive strength, modulus, porosity/permeability and density. These DoE studies establish composition-property relations and identify the best combination for any desired property of interest – in particular, strength. Based on CBB composition and fabrication process, validated against technical performance metrics, a techno-economic analysis was constructed which incorporated a process flow model, engineering design (with scaling), and calculated capital plus operating costs. Based on measured property metrics and estimated process economics and a projected price by TEA (techno-economic analysis), building and construction target markets were identified by a market survey assessment. With known cost, price, performance metrics and competitive advantages for CBBs matched with commercial applications/uses, a technical gap analysis was performed to identify further development required for scale-up and commercialization.
Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.
We assess the economics of repurposing and recycling electric vehicle (EV) batteries by estimating the maximum acquisition price repurposers and recyclers could pay for used EV packs across cathode chemistries, first-life conditions, second-life applications, and recycling processes. We develop a novel open-source process-based cost model of a UL-1974-certified repurposing facility and leverage battery degradation models to estimate the maximum acquisition price repurposers could pay for used EV batteries while producing second-life battery energy storage systems with life-adjusted costs equivalent to new systems. We compare these maximum price estimates to maximum prices for recyclers based on cost and revenue estimates from the EverBatt model. We find that repurposing is more economical than recycling for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, due to their relatively long life and low value materials; recycling is generally more economical than repurposing for lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA) batteries, due to their shorter life and higher value materials; and the economics for lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) batteries depend more heavily on first life retirement conditions and second life application intensity. These results suggest an overall strategy: reuse LFP, recycle NCA, and sort NMC into recycling or repurposing pathways based on state of health and second-life application.
Variable renewable energy (VRE) is not yet meaningfully participating in U.S. ancillary services (AS) markets. VRE participation in AS markets could provide a new source of revenue for VRE resource owners to offset declining energy and capacity values and a new tool for power system operators to address emerging system constraints. This paper uses a price-taker dispatch model and historical prices to estimate the economic value of standalone and hybrid (battery-paired) VRE participation in AS markets, from the resource owner and electricity system perspectives, in each of the seven U.S. independent system operator and regional transmission organization (ISO/RTO) markets where ancillary service prices are set. Across ISO/RTO markets, average (2015–2019) simulated incremental revenues from power regulation market participation were 0.0–2.9 USD/MWh (+0–15% of revenue without participation) for standalone VRE owners and 1–33 USD/MWh (+1–69%) for hybrid VRE owners. However, ISO/RTO reserve markets are relatively thin and have the potential to become saturated by energy storage projects that are currently in ISO/RTO interconnection queues. In most markets, standalone and hybrid VRE could provide power regulation reserves during periods with high power regulation prices, suggesting that VRE participation in AS markets could have high system value. The analysis highlights the relevance of separate upward and downward power regulation products and indicates that ISOs/RTOs might consider initially focusing on enabling hybrid VRE provision of AS.
An imbalance problem exists in the rare earth element (REE) market with cerium and lanthanum being more abundant and less valuable than REEs used in permanent magnets such as neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium. Research has been conducted on new applications for abundant REEs to improve mining economics. However, potential market impacts of these applications on individual REE commodities are unknown. A system dynamics model was built to investigate the impacts of a new aluminum-cerium (Al-Ce) alloy that can theoretically utilize three separate cerium forms: cerium carbonate, cerium oxide, or cerium metal. Cerium carbonate currently possesses the lowest price of the three available forms making it initially the most favorable choice. However, model results showed that cerium oxide could provide the best economics for future Al-Ce alloy deployment because its larger market size buffers major shocks to price.
The unprecedented rise in work from home (WFH) during COVID-19 poses challenges for the transportation engineers and planners with the travel demand forecasting. If WFH persists post-pandemic, it could influence traffic patterns, reducing peak-hour congestion. However, the evolution of WFH decisions across pandemic phases and varying socio-economic contexts remains unclear. This study examines factors influencing WFH choices using data from the US Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey. Findings reveal a decline in WFH participation from 60% during the first wave to 38% by the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. A Geographically Weighted Regression model highlights the influence of socio-economic, household, and COVID-19-related variables, with notable spatial variability. Results show that younger individuals, females, and households with children are consistently more likely to WFH, while non-white and higher income individuals have an increasing likelihood for WFH as the pandemic progresses. These insights inform future transportation planning, emphasizing equity and decentralization strategies for post-pandemic commuting.
A novel data-driven, machine-learning-based method for modeling the instantaneous power losses of a distribution-sited 2 MW/8MWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), a grid-scale electrochemical storage technology, is introduced and compared against benchmark empirical modeling approaches, including symmetric and asymmetric models, as well as a recent convex hull modeling approach. The novel loss modeling method introduces several advantages over the benchmark models and over simplistic efficiency estimates, the most significant of which is that the model can accurately reflect the stepwise and non-linear parasitic losses associated with the duty cycles of mechanical auxiliary systems like pump motor drives and blower fans. Residuals of the models are compared; the proposed data driven model features significantly improved accuracy over the benchmark models. The model's coefficient of determination is also improved relative to that of the benchmark models. Furthermore, a novel method for visualization of operational efficiency of the grid-scale storage technology is introduced. To demonstrate the benefits of the novel data-driven method for modeling the VRFB, the benchmark models and the proposed models are embedded into an Open DSS distribution network model to study two applications of the grid-scale electrical storage system: load leveling for grid support and energy arbitrage. This article demonstrates that the accuracy of the instantaneous power loss model significantly impacts the understanding of the state of charge of the VRFB. In turn, the accuracy of the efficiency modeling of the VRFB impacts the understanding of the potential economic value and technical benefits to the distribution network operators. In conclusion, the presented power loss modeling approach is, therefore, highly relevant for utility-stakeholders, battery asset owners, system engineers, system designers, and financial planners interested in evaluating or optimizing the operation of grid-scale VRFBs.
The Headquarters Department of the Army (HQDA) sponsored a study to determine the national impact of deploying the Re-tuning™ methodology in 5 buildings types that account for over 40% of the Army’s conditioned building stock. Re-tuning is a systematic process that improves operational efficiency and reduces energy consumption at no- or low-cost through the building automation system (BAS) by correcting operational problems that plague buildings. The study relied on successful demonstration of the re-tuning methodology at 4 pilot US Army installations that informed a holistic effort that included simulating 12 individual re-tuning energy efficiency measures (EEMs) and 6 packages of EEMs in 5 selected Army building prototype models that represent 311 million ft2 (28.9 million m2) of the Army’s conditioned floor space. Both the baseline buildings and the packages were customized to capture the expected outcomes of re-tuning a diverse set of buildings. The study highlighted the benefit of individual re-tuning EEMs and economics of implementing packages of EEMs in applicable Army buildings across 16 climates and 2 building vintages. The average whole-building energy savings ranged from 10.8% to 40.5% by building type, with the company operations facility (COF) building having the highest value proposition from re-tuning. In addition, the study reveals that all large office (LO) buildings in the Army are economical to re-tune. The total modeled cost savings potential for re-tuning the five building types across the US Army is $204/1,000 sf ($220/100 m2), or $64M annually. This cost savings represents 5.6% of all the Army’s energy expenditures.
Abstract Hydropower is an important source of renewable, low-carbon energy. Global and regional energy systems, including hydropower, may evolve in a variety of ways under different scenarios. Representation of hydropower in global multisector models is often simplified at the country or regional level. Some models assume a fixed hydropower supply, which is not affected by economic drivers or competition with other electricity generation sources. Here, we implement an endogenous model of hydropower expansion in the Global Change Analysis Model, including a representation of hydropower potential at the river basin level to project future hydropower production across river basins and explore hydropower’s role in evolving energy systems both regionally and globally, under alternative scenarios. Each scenario utilizes the new endogenous hydropower implementation but makes different assumptions about future low-carbon transitions, technology costs, and energy demand. Our study suggests there is ample potential for hydropower to expand in the future to help meet growing demand for electricity driven by socioeconomic growth, electrification of end-use sectors, or other factors. However, hydropower expansion will be constrained by resource availability, resource location, and cost in ways that limit its growth relative to other technologies. As a result, all scenarios show a generally decreasing share of hydroelectricity over total electricity generation at the global level. Hydropower expansion varies across regions, and across basins within regions, due to differences in resource potential, cost, current utilization, and other factors. In sum, our scenarios entail hydropower generation growth between 36% and 119% in 2050, compared to 2015, globally.
Ransomware attacks are one of the most dangerous cyber-attacks which can disrupt the operation of photovoltaic (PV) systems and incur an enormous economic loss. This paper introduces a ransomware security threat modeling method that identifies potential vulnerabilities, threats, and impacts of ransomware attacks targeting a PV system. Here, the security threat modeling consists of three steps: 1) system identification, 2) threat modeling that finds existing vulnerabilities, 3) attack modeling that designs attack profiles to succeed ransomware attacks, and 4) penetration testing that performs authorized cyber-attacks and analyzes impacts of the ransomware attack profiles using a real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) PV system security testbed.
Code base to run Streamlit Value of Information App for binary decision with geothermal techno economics. An open-source VOI app that models binary decisions (e.g. do something (drill) or walk away (do nothing)) and binary geothermal scenarios (positive or negative) has been developed. Users can input their anticipated economic values (profits or losses) directly into the value matrix to represent all four combinations of these actions and geothermal possibilities. VOI in general requires probabilities to be assigned for “probability of success”, or probability of experiencing a positive geothermal scenario versus negative. The users of the App can toggle this probability of success both in the demo problem and in the Value of Imperfect Information problem. The VOI App allows users to upload their own labeled data to evaluate how well it allows them to distinguish between positive versus negative sites. We have been using IGNENIOUS data to test and demonstrate; industry members have prepared their own labeled data, and have present their examples from diverse use cases at a conference workshop. The VOI App is open to the public at: https://voigeothermalrising.streamlit.app
This report details the results of building energy modeling analysis evaluating the potential energy savings, economic outcomes, and grid-level electricity reduction associated with cold climate air source heat pump (ccASHP) adoption across multifamily and manufactured housing (MMFH) building typologies in the City and Borough of Juneau (CBJ). Three building archetypes were evaluated: multifamily 4-plex apartments, multifamily 8-plex apartments, and manufactured housing units. Building energy models were developed using OpenStudio-HPXML and calibrated to actual utility consumption data and local meteorological data from the Juneau International Airport weather station using an automated calibration tool following the BPI-2400-S-2015 v.2 standard for model calibration. Occupant behaviors present the greatest variability in successful calibrations. Calibrated models were benchmarked against a baseline electric resistance heating condition, with the selected ccASHP modeled as the retrofit condition and typical meteorological year weather data for all results generation.
REopt Lite evaluates the economic viability of grid-connected solar photovoltaics, wind, combined heat and power, and electric and thermal storage at commercial and small industrial sites. It allows building owners to identify the system sizes and dispatch strategies that minimize the site’s life cycle cost of energy. REopt Lite also estimates the amount of time on-site generation and storage can sustain the site's critical load during a grid outage and allows the user the choice of optimizing for energy resilience. It is primarily used to inform project development decisions and to support research on the factors that drive project feasibility for market development and policy analysis. It is available through a web interface, application programing interface, and open-source code. This user manual provides an overview of the model, including its capabilities and typical applications; inputs and outputs; economic calculations; technology descriptions; and model parameters, variables, and equations. The model is highly flexible and is continually evolving to meet the needs of each analysis. Therefore, this report is not an exhaustive description of all capabilities, but rather a summary of the core components of the model.
Pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) provides around 95% of all utility-scale energy storage in the U.S. and globally. Additional deployment of PSH is hampered by excessively long permitting and commissioning requirements and is constrained to locations for which natural topography provides suitable elevation relief between the upper and lower reservoirs (the ΔH challenge). The purpose of this research was to evaluate Pumped-Storage Hydropower using Abandoned Underground Mines (PSH-AUM) as a means to solve the ΔH challenge and initiate the commercialization pathway for a promising new energy storage technology. Four primary tasks were conducted: Screening and ranking of candidate sites for project development; multiphase reservoir modeling to evaluate mine performance; techno-economic analysis and preliminary designs for PSH-AUM systems integrated with fossil-fuel power units; and stakeholder engagement to identify pathways to commercialization of this new technology. Key results were achieved in each of the four primary tasks. Candidate site screening determined that nearly 10,000 underground mines were spatially locatable, of which more than 100 sites appear suitable for integration with existing fossil power plants that are expected to remain in longer-term operation. Mine reservoir models were developed using PNNL’s STOMP simulator and parameterized using candidate site data to evaluate interactions with the surrounding groundwater system and confirm the potential for some mines to accommodate inflows and outflows on the order of 100 m3/s over 8-hour durations (1.6 GWh system) without excessive aqueous pressures. Techno-economic analysis resulted in a project cost optimization scheme to identify key sensitivities and the development of preliminary designs that can minimize overall costs of deployment. Finally, stakeholder engagement with industry, state government, and local economic development leaders confirmed the viability of PSH-AUM as a promising new technology. Our Phase I project results suggest that PSH-AUM technology has a domestic market potential on the order of $100+ Billion with ample space for technology development to commercialization within the next decade.
Recycling will play a crucial role in mitigating plastic pollution and promoting a circular economy for polymers. Quantitative analysis can help guide the optimization and implementation of these plastic management strategies, enabling increased circularity while minimizing costs, energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and other environmental impacts. This talk will outline the Bio-Optimized Technologies to keep Thermoplastics out of Landfills and the Environment (BOTTLE) Consortium's approach to analysis-guided plastic recycling research. Stringent process modelling, life cycle assessment, and techno-economic analysis are used to benchmark the technical feasibility, environmental impacts, and costs of chemical and biological recycling technologies in comparison to conventional fossil fuel-based plastic manufacturing. Across emerging recycling strategies, several key challenges become apparent - including plastic feedstock pretreatment requirements, high energy or chemical use, and recycled plastic yields and quality - highlighting opportunities for future innovation. Through this consistent and in-depth analysis approach, BOTTLE aims to provide the plastics community with key metrics and insights to drive plastic recycling innovation towards a more sustainable and circular economy.
An imbalance problem exists in the rare earth element (REE) market with cerium and lanthanum being more abundant and less valuable than REEs used in permanent magnets such as neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium. Research has been conducted on new applications for abundant REEs to improve mining economics. However, potential market impacts of these applications on individual REE commodities are unknown. A system dynamics model was built to investigate the impacts of a new aluminum-cerium (Al-Ce) alloy that can theoretically utilize three separate cerium forms: cerium carbonate, cerium oxide, or cerium metal. Cerium carbonate currently possesses the lowest price of the three available forms making it initially the most favorable choice. However, model results showed that cerium oxide could provide the best economics for future Al-Ce alloy deployment because its larger market size buffers major shocks to price.