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NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Anorthite - Thermal equation of state to high pressures

New shock-wave data are presented for anorthite from which a full high-temperature, high-pressure equation of state is derived. Whereas anorthite has relatively low values of thermal expansion and Grueneisen parameter at zero pressure, it is found that these attain relatively high values in the high density state corresponding to the high-pressure phase Hugoniot but decrease upon compression as expected. It is noted that higher order anharmonic contributions decrease more rapidly with pressure and that the thermal expansion therefore saturates to a high temperature value at pressures above about 100 GPa. Reduction of the Hugoniot data permits shock temperatures to be calculated; it also yields a principal adiabat for the high pressure branch of the Hugoniot. The initial bulk modulus of this adiabat is essentially identical to that of anorthite, whereas the initial density is about 3.40 Mg/cu m.

Jeanloz, R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2010 Hurricane Season

Estimates are presented for the tropical cyclone activity expected for the 2010 North Atlantic basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the 2010 season will be more active than the 2009 season, reflecting increased frequencies more akin to that of the current more active phase that has been in vogue since 1995. Averages (+/- 1 sd) during the current more active phase are 14.5+/-4.7, 7.8+/-3.2, 3.7+/-1.8, and 2+/- 2, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the number of hurricanes (NH), the number of major hurricanes (NMH), and the number of United States (U.S.) land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH). Based on the "usual" behavior of the 10-yma parametric first differences, one expects NTC = 19+/-2, NH = 14+/-2, NMH = 7+/-2, and NUSLFH = 4+/-2 for the 2010 hurricane season; however, based on the "best guess" 10-yma values of surface-air temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) and the Oceanic Nino Index, one expects NTC > or equals 16, NH > or equals 14, NMH > or equals 7, and NUSLFH > or equals 6.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Compound-Specific Carbon Isotope Compositions of Aldehydes and Ketones in the Murchison Meteorite

Compound-specific carbon isotope analysis (delta(exp 13)C) of meteoritic organic compounds can be used to elucidate the abiotic chemical reactions involved in their synthesis. The soluble organic content of the Murchison carbonaceous chondrite has been extensively investigated over the years, with a focus on the origins of amino acids and the potential role of Strecker-cyanohydrin synthesis in the early solar system. Previous delta(exp 13)C investigations have targeted alpha-amino acid and alpha-hydroxy acid Strecker products and reactant HCN; however, delta(exp 13)C values for meteoritic aldehydes and ketones (Strecker precursors) have not yet been reported. As such, the distribution of aldehydes and ketones in the cosmos and their role in prebiotic reactions have not been fully investigated. Here, we have applied an optimized O-(2,3,4,5,6-pentafluorobenzyl)hydroxylamine (PFBHA) derivatization procedure to the extraction, identification, and delta(exp 13)C analysis of carbonyl compounds in the Murchison meteorite. A suite of aldehydes and ketones, dominated by acetaldehyde, propionaldehyde, and acetone, were detected in the sample. delta(exp 13)C values, ranging from -10.0(0/00) to +66.4(0/00), were more (exp 13)C-depleted than would be expected for aldehydes and ketones derived from the interstellar medium, based on interstellar (exp 12)C/(exp 13)C ratios. These relatively (exp 13)C-depleted values suggest that chemical processes taking place in asteroid parent bodies (e.g., oxidation of the IOM) may provide a secondary source of aldehydes and ketones in the solar system. Comparisons between delta(exp 13)C compositions of meteoritic aldehydes and ketones and other organic compound classes were used to evaluate potential structural relationships and associated reactions, including Strecker synthesis and alteration-driven chemical pathways.

meteoritic organic compounds↗

NASA NTRS1972

Theoretical foundations for a quantitative approach to paleogenetics. I, II.

It is shown that by neglecting the phenomena of multiple hits, back mutation, and chance coincidence errors larger than 100% can be introduced in the calculated value of the average number of nucleotide base differences to be expected between two homologous polynucleotides. Mathematical formulas are derived to correct quantitatively for these effects. It is pointed out that the effects change materially the quantitative aspects of phylogenics, such as the length of the legs of the trees. A number of problems are solved without approximation.-

Holmquist, R.↗

NASA NTRS1974

A modified Newton-Raphson analysis of flight measurements of the trailing vortices of a heavy jet transport

A modified Newton-Raphson method has been used to determine the parameters in equations describing the vortex flow to obtain a best match with flight measurements of the flow behind the C-5A airplane. The flight measurements were made using a specially instrumented T-33 airplane which passed as closely as possible to the centers of the trailing vortices at several distances behind the C-5A airplane. The flight measurements were transformed to flow velocity relative to an inertial frame of reference. The assumed form of the flow consisted of the superposition of two counterrotating, finite core vortices. The positions of the vortex centers, their total circulation, the effective eddy viscosity and measurement bias were the parameters adjusted. The assumed form of vortex flow fit well the measured velocities for the numerous sets of data, both flaps up and down for the C-5A airplane. The resulting values of total circulation, however, were about two-thirds that expected of a wing with an elliptical loading. A partial explanation of the less than expected circulation is a dip in the spanwise lift distribution at the airplane's center line. The distance between the trailing vortices at the smallest times encountered is somewhat less than that expected for an elliptical wing loading.

Taylor, L. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1977

A photometric study of the Orion OB 1 association. I - Observational data. II - Photometric analysis

A catalog of observational data is presented for stars in the region of the young stellar association Orion OB 1. Photoelectric observations obtained in the uvby-beta and UBV systems are compiled along with previous photoelectric and spectroscopic data for all these stars as well as for several bright members of the association with available photometric indices. Mean weighted values are computed for the photometric data and summarized in tables expected to be reasonably complete for association members earlier than spectral type A0. Membership criteria are derived, and qualitative membership probabilities summarized, for the 526 stars in the final program. The analytical procedures are discussed for association stars of B, intermediate, and AF types. Effects of the nebular environment and various calibrations of Balmer-line and four-color indices are considered for the determination of absolute magnitudes for the B-type stars.

Warren, W. H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Venus upper atmosphere neutral composition - Preliminary results from the Pioneer Venus orbiter

Measurements in situ of the neutral composition and temperature of the thermosphere of Venus are being made with a quadrupole mass spectrometer on the Pioneer Venus orbiter. The presence of many gases, including the major constituents CO2, CO, N2, O, and He has been confirmed. Carbon dioxide is the most abundant constituent at altitudes below about 155 kilometers in the terminator region. Above this altitude atomic oxygen is the major constituent, with O/CO2 ratios in the upper atmosphere being greater than was commonly expected. Isotope ratios of O and C are close to terrestrial values. The temperature inferred from scale heights above 180 kilometers is about 400 K on the dayside near the evening terminator at a solar zenith angle of about 69 deg. It decreases to about 230 K when the solar zenith angle is about 90 deg.

Niemann, H. B.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Abradable dual-density ceramic turbine seal system

A plasma sprayed dual density ceramic abradable seal system for direct application to the HPT seal shroud of small gas turbine engines. The system concept is based on the thermal barrier coating and depends upon an additional layer of modified density ceramic material adjacent to the gas flow path to provide the desired abradability. This is achieved by codeposition of inert fillers with yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) to interrupt the continuity of the zirconia struture. The investigation of a variety of candidate fillers, with hardness values as low as 2 on Moh's scale, led to the conclusion that solid filler materials in combination with a YSZ matrix, regardless of their hardness values, have a propensity for compacting rather than shearing as originally expected. The observed compaction is accompanied by high energy dissipation in the rub interaction, usually resulting in the adhesive transfer of blade material to the stationary seal member. Two YSZ based coating systems which incorported hollow alumino silicate spheres as density reducing agents were surveyed over the entire range of compositions from 100 percent filler to 100 percent YSZ. Abradability and erosion characteristics were determined, hardness and permeability characterized, and engine experience acquired with several system configurations.

Clingman, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Cosmic ray antimatter and baryon symmetric cosmology

The relative merits and difficulties of the primary and secondary origin hypotheses for the observed cosmic-ray antiprotons, including the new low-energy measurement of Buffington, et al. We conclude that the cosmic-ray antiproton data may be evidence for antimatter galaxies and baryon symmetric cosmology. The present bar P data are consistent with a primary extragalactic component having /p=/equiv 1+/- 3.2/0.7x10 = to the -4 independent of energy. We propose that the primary extragalactic cosmic ray antiprotons are most likely from active galaxies and that expected disintegration of bar alpha/alpha ban alpha/alpha. We further predict a value for ban alpha/alpha =/equiv 10 to the -5, within range of future cosmic ray detectors.

Stecker, F. W.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Shock vaporization and the accretion of the icy satellites of Jupiter and Saturn

The role of impact vaporization acting during the formation of the Jovian and Saturnian satellites is examined in an attempt to explain the observed density in terms of composition of these rock and ice objects. A hypothesis is examined which states that the smaller satellites of Saturn having mean densities in the 1.1 to 1.4 Mg/cu m range represent primordial accreted planetesimal condensates formed in the proto-Jovian and Saturnian accretionary planetary discs. These densities are in the range expected for water-ice/silicate mixtures constrained in the solar values of O/Si and O/Mg atomic ratios. It is demonstrated that if the large satellites accreted from the same group of planetesimals which formed the small Saturnian satellites impact vaporization of water upon accretion in a porous regolith, at low H2O partial pressure, can account for the increase in mean planetesimal density from 1.6 Mg/cu m (43% H2O + 57% silicate) to a mean planetary density of 1.9 Mg/cu m for Ganymedean-sized water silicate objects. If impact volatilization of initially porous planetesimals is assumed, it can be demonstrated starting with planetesimals composed of 54% H2O and 40% silicate partial devolatilization upon accretion will yield a Ganymede-sized planet, having a radius of 2600 km and a density of 1.85 kg/cu m, similar to that of Ganymede, Callisto, and Titan.

Ahrens, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Estimation of lower crust magnetization form satellite derived anomaly field

Various lines of evidence point to the lower crust as the source of the long-wavelength magnetic anomaly field measured by the POGO and Magsat satellites. Using seismically determined lower crust thicknesses and equivalent source inversion of the satellite anomaly data, magnetization for the lower crust for much of the United States has been calculated. The average magnetization for two hundred sixty-six 150 x 150 km areas is 3.5 A/m with a standard deviation of 1.1 A/m. These values are consistent with laboratory measurements of mafic-ultramafic rocks expected in the lower crust, and in agreement with previous estimates of lower crust magnetization based on long-wavelength aeromagnetic data. Average lower crust thickness for the same areas is 18.2 km (sigma = 6.4). Thus, over large regions, it appears that variation in magnetization and variation in magnetic layer thickness contribute almost equally in causing the anomaly field variation at satellite altitude.

Schnetzler, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Large plasmaspheric electric fields at L approximately 2 measured by the S3-3 satellite during strong geomagnetic activity

Large plasmaspheric electric fields at L is approximately 2 measured by the S3-3 satellite during strong geomagnetic activity are reported. Since these measurements have amplitudes comparable to those of the local corotation electric field, during such events the plasmasphere is expected to get strongly altered event at such low L-values. Furthermore, those measurements could contribute to the understanding of the physics of the convection/electric field penetration to the low latitude plasmaphere as well as the disturbed dynamo, during strong geomagnetic activity. For this purpose, critical parameters related to geomagnetic activity are also presented for the reported electric field events.

Gonzalez, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Advanced solar thermal technologies for the 21st century

The paper considers the present status of solar thermal dynamic space power technologies and projects the various attributes of these systems into the future, to the years 2000 and 2010. By the year 2000, collector weights should decrease from 1.25 kg/sq m (1985 value) to about 1.0 kg/sq m. The specific weight is also expected to decrease from 6.0 kg/kw. By the year 2010, slight improvements in the free piston Stirling energy conversion system are postulated with efficiencies reaching 32 percent. In addition, advanced concentrator concepts should be operational.

Kohout, L. L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Surface potential of the water liquid-vapor interface

An analysis of an extended molecular dynamics calculation of the surface potential (SP) of the water liquid-vapor interface is presented. The SP predicted by the TIP4P model is -(130 + or - 50) mV. This value is of reasonable magnitude but of opposite sign to the expectations based on laboratory experiments. The electrostatic potential shows a nonmonotonic variation with depth into the liquid.

Wilson, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Optimal focal-plane restoration

Image restoration can be implemented efficiently by calculating the convolution of the digital image and a small kernel during image acquisition. Processing the image in the focal-plane in this way requires less computation than traditional Fourier-transform-based techniques such as the Wiener filter and constrained least-squares filter. Here, the values of the convolution kernel that yield the restoration with minimum expected mean-square error are determined using a frequency analysis of the end-to-end imaging system. This development accounts for constraints on the size and shape of the spatial kernel and all the components of the imaging system. Simulation results indicate the technique is effective and efficient.

Reichenbach, Stephen E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Ten-year ground exposure of composite materials used on the Bell Model 206L helicopter flight service program

Residual strength results are presented for four composite material systems that have been exposed for up to 10 years to the environment at five different locations on the North American continent. The exposure locations are near where the Bell Model 206L helicopters, which participated in a flight service program sponsored by NASA Langley Research Center and the U.S. Army, were flying in daily commercial service. The composite material systems are (1) Kevlar-49 fabric/F-185 epoxy; (2) Kevlar-49 fabric/LRF-277 epoxy; (3) Kevlar-49 fabric/CE-306 epoxy; and (4) T-300 graphite/E-788 epoxy. Six replicates of each material were removed and tested after 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years of exposure. The average baseline strength was determined from testing six as-fabricated specimens. More than 1700 specimens have been tested. All specimens that were tested to determine their strength were painted with a polyurethane paint. Each set of specimens also included an unpainted panel for observing the weathering effects on the composite materials. A statistically based procedure has been used to determine the strength value above which at least 90 percent of the population is expected to fall with a 95-percent confidence level. The computed compression strengths are 80 to 90 percent of the baseline (no-exposure) strengths. The resulting compression strengths are approximately 8 percent below the population mean strengths. The computed short-beam-shear strengths are 83 to 92 percent of the baseline (no-exposure) strengths. The computed tension strength of all materials is 93 to 97 percent of the baseline (no-exposure) strengths.

Baker, Donald J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Flare rates and the McIntosh active-region classifications

Multiple linear regression analysis was used to derive the effective solar flare contributions of each of the McIntosh classification parameters. The best fits to the combined average number of M- and X-class X-ray flares per day were found when the flare contributions were assumed to be multiplicative rather than additive. This suggests that nonlinear processes may amplify the effects of the following different active-region properties encoded in the McIntosh classifications: the length of the sunspot group, the size and shape of the largest spot, and the distribution of spots within the group. Since many of these active-region properties are correlated with magnetic field strengths and fluxes, we suggest that the derived correlations reflect a more fundamental relationship between flare production and the magnetic properties of the region. The derived flare contributions for the individual McIntosh parameters can be used to derive a flare rate for each of the three-parameter McIntosh classes. These derived flare rates can be interpreted as smoothed values that may provide better estimates of an active region's expected flare rate when rare classes are reported or when the multiple observing sites report slightly different classifications.

Bornmann, P. L.↗