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DOE OSTI2021

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 µg m-3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 µg m-3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions is key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

Liu, Song↗

DOE OSTI2022

Realistic operation of two residential cordwood-fired outdoor hydronic heater appliances—Part 1: Particulate and gaseous emissions

This study investigated how heat demand and fuel loading affect the emissions from outdoor wood-fired hydronic heaters by testing two such appliances using an integrated-duty cycle test method. This test included transient operating conditions, such as cold and hot-starts and modulation between 15 and 100% of maximum rated output. Emission values indicate transient operating conditions produce higher emissions than steady state operation. Cold starts resulted in elevated particulate matter emission factors for both appliances; in one case the particulate matter emission factor for this period was >3500 mg/MJ, which represented emissions 20 times the average value. Additionally, when heat demand was cycled—elevated CO emission factors were measured, with values >5000 mg/MJ for both appliances and more than 3 times the appliance averages, respectively. It follows that the appliance average particulate matter emission factors and CO emission factors were not representative of the actual EF values during these transient periods. In contrast, methane emission factors were relatively stable throughout all tested combustion conditions; however, they were much higher than oil-fired appliances are therefore should not be ignored. These findings demonstrate that wood-fired hydronic heater emissions during transient operating conditions can be significantly greater than emissions during steady-state test conditions, such as those used in typical certification tests. Consequently, certification test values for particulate matter and CO emission factors may significantly underestimate the actual emissions of these appliances when operated in a home. Use of integrated duty-cycle test protocols that capture cold-starts and reloading are better for representing in-use operations of wood-fired hydronic heaters and provide more realistic emissions and delivered efficiency measurements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Large reductions in Permian Basin methane intensity shown in multi-year comparison of aerially-visible methane emissions

Spanning the US states of Texas and New Mexico, the Permian Basin has been a hotspot of methane emissions from oil and natural gas activity 1–4, although studies disagree over the magnitude of these emissions. The most comprehensive measurement campaigns published were conducted in 2019 1–5 .There have been large changes in the energy industry since then, including in the prices of oil and gas, both state and federal regulatory environments, investor and activist pressure over methane emissions, and the adoption of new technologies and policies by energy operators. Understanding how any or all of these might influence methane emissions is important for policy makers, oil and gas operators, and other stakeholders. We characterize the time evolution of Permian Basin methane emissions using a series of comprehensive aerial surveys conducted every year from 2020-2023 and compare them to the 2019 results cited above. To maintain comparability, all the data sets are from surveys using Insight M point source methane sensing technology. The scope of these surveys expanded over time: from 33-46% of wells, oil production, and gas production in 2020 to 60-65% in 2021, to 84% of wells and over 90% of both oil and gas production in 2023. These surveys by Insight M also include hundreds of gas processing plants and compressor stations as well as 1000s of km of gathering and transmission pipelines. Considering only the aerially detected portion of emissions (typically the majority of the total in such surveys 4), we find reductions of more than 70% in methane emissions intensity compared to the 2019 New Mexico-only Insight M survey, with variation depending on the year 3,4. Notably, although sources below 100 kg/hr contributed less than 10% of aerially measured emissions the 2019 New Mexico survey 3, these smaller sources constitute a larger proportion of total aerially measured emissions (although not the majority) in 2020-2023. Production facilities and gathering pipelines are responsible for the larges shares of total emissions, followed by compressor stations and gas processing plants. Permian methane emissions were also measured in a comprehensive 2019 Permian-wide survey by the Carbon Mapper team 2. That analysis led to a lower total emissions estimate at the time 4. These new Insight M-based emission rates are still roughly 30-70% lower than the aerially measured portion of the 2019 Carbon Mapper-based estimates 4. Further work is needed to harmonize these surveys in space and time to create the most intercomparable numbers possible 5. Additional analysis is needed to compare our findings to the more spatially constrained 2020, 2021, and 2023 Carbon Mapper surveys in the Permian 4,6. The evidence is strong from these two survey teams that emissions intensity has declined significantly since 2019. Reasons for this trend are currently unclear but point to possible success of emissions control programs. Future work investigating frequency, source, and operator-specific intensities could provide insights into the causes of this promising trend.

methane, oil and gas, data science, remote sensing↗

DOE OSTI2014

Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979–2012: impact of climate and land-use changes

Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979–2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5°×0.5° resolution using the MEGAN–MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation, annual positive flux trends of 0.2% and 0.52% throughout the entire period are found in Asia and China, respectively, related to a positive trend in temperature and solar radiation. The impact of oil palm expansion in Indonesia and Malaysia is to enhance the trends over that region, e.g., from 1.17% to 1.5% in 1979–2005 in Malaysia. A negative emission trend is derived in India (-0.4%), owing to the negative trend in solar radiation data associated with the strong dimming effect likely due to increasing aerosol loadings. The bottom-up emissions are compared to field campaign measurements in Borneo and South China and further evaluated against top-down isoprene emission estimates constrained by GOME-2/MetOp-A formaldehyde columns through 2007–2012. The satellite-based estimates appear to support our assumptions, and confirm the lower emission rate in tropical forests of Indonesia and Malaysia. Additional flux measurements are clearly needed to characterize the spatial variability of emission factors better. To conclude, a decreasing trend in the inferred top-down Chinese emissions since 2007 is in line with recorded cooling in China after that year, thus suggesting that the satellite HCHO columns are able to capture climate-induced changes in emissions.

Stavrakou, T.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Seasonal and interannual variability in wetland methane emissions simulated by CLM4Me' and CAM-chem and comparisons to observations of concentrations

Understanding the temporal and spatial variation of wetland methane emissions is essential to the estimation of the global methane budget. Our goal for this study is three-fold: (i) to evaluate the wetland methane fluxes simulated in two versions of the Community Land Model, the Carbon-Nitrogen (CN; i.e., CLM4.0) and the Biogeochemistry (BGC; i.e., CLM4.5) versions using the methane emission model CLM4Me' so as to determine the sensitivity of the emissions to the underlying carbon model; (ii) to compare the simulated atmospheric methane concentrations to observations, including latitudinal gradients and interannual variability so as to determine the extent to which the atmospheric observations constrain the emissions; (iii) to understand the drivers of seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations. Simulations of the transport and removal of methane use the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) model in conjunction with CLM4Me' methane emissions from both CN and BGC simulations and other methane emission sources from literature. In each case we compare model-simulated atmospheric methane concentration with observations. In addition, we simulate the atmospheric concentrations based on the TransCom wetland and rice paddy emissions derived from a different terrestrial ecosystem model, Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT). Our analysis indicates CN wetland methane emissions are higher in the tropics and lower at high latitudes than emissions from BGC. In CN, methane emissions decrease from 1993 to 2004 while this trend does not appear in the BGC version. In the CN version, methane emission variations follow satellite-derived inundation wetlands closely. However, they are dissimilar in BGC due to its different carbon cycle. CAM-chem simulations with CLM4Me' methane emissions suggest that both prescribed anthropogenic and predicted wetlands methane emissions contribute substantially to seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentration. Simulated atmospheric CH 4 concentrations in CAM-chem are highly correlated with observations at most of the 14 measurement stations evaluated with an average correlation between 0.71 and 0.80 depending on the simulation (for the period of 1993–2004 for most stations based on data availability). Our results suggest that different spatial patterns of wetland emissions can have significant impacts on Northern and Southern hemisphere (N–S) atmospheric CH 4 concentration gradients and growth rates. In conclusion, this study suggests that both anthropogenic and wetland emissions have significant contributions to seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. However, our analysis also indicates the existence of large uncertainties in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude of global wetland methane budgets, and that substantial uncertainty comes from the carbon model underlying the methane flux modules.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Exploiting OMI NO2 Satellite Observations to Infer Fossil-fuel CO2 Emissions from U.S. Megacities

Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions and their trends in eight U.S. megacities during 2006–2017 are inferred by combining satellite-derived NOX emissions with bottom-up city-specific NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios. A statistical model is fit to a collection NO2 plumes observed from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and is used to calculate top-down NOX emissions. Decreases in OMI-derived NOX emissions are observed across the eight cities from 2006 to 2017 (−17% in Miami to −58% in Los Angeles), and are generally consistent with long-term trends of bottom-up inventories (−25% in Miami to −49% in Los Angeles), but there are some interannual discrepancies. City-specific NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios, used to calculate inferred CO2, are estimated through annual bottom-up inventories of NOX and CO2 emissions disaggregated to 1 × 1 km2 resolution. Over the study period, NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios have decreased by ~40% nationwide (−24% to −51% for our studied cities), which is attributed to a faster reduction in NOX when compared to CO2 due to policy regulations and fuel type shifts. Combining top-down NOX emissions and bottom-up NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios, annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are derived. Inferred OMI-based top-down CO2 emissions trends vary between +7% in Dallas to −31% in Phoenix. For 2017, we report annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to be: Los Angeles 113 ± 49 Tg/yr; New York City 144 ± 62 Tg/yr; and Chicago 55 ± 24 Tg/yr. A study in the Los Angeles area, using independent methods, reported a 2013–2016 average CO2 emissions rate of 104 Tg/yr and 120 Tg/yr, which suggests that the CO2 emissions from our method are in good agreement with other studies' top-down estimates. We anticipate future remote sensing instruments – with better spatial and temporal resolution – will better constrain the NOX-to-CO2 ratio and reduce the uncertainty in our method.

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Calculating Potential Radiological Emissions for Waste Management Activities at INL - 20068

At Idaho National Laboratory (INL), work involving radionuclides is evaluated for potential emissions from a project in order to comply with the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) regulations, 40 CFR 61 Subpart H. Emission calculations are documented in an Air Permitting Applicability Determination (APAD) to analyze unmitigated and mitigated emissions and determine if an Application to Construct (ATC) or continuous monitoring is required. To calculate the unmitigated and mitigated emissions, a spreadsheet was developed to provide ease in determining potential emissions by providing the maximum operating temperature and the material being used. The spreadsheet aids in determining the potential emissions for research projects and waste management activities at Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) and other locations across the INL site. Furthermore, it can also be used for periodic confirmatory measurements (PCM) to justify low emissions. Elements that factor into the unmitigated and mitigated calculations include the amount of each radionuclide used (in curies or grams), specific activity (if amount is given in grams), the temperature the material is heated to in Celsius, the dose conversion factor which is derived from Clean Air Act Assessment Package - 1988 (CAP-88) modeling, and the number of HEPA filters used for mitigated measures. The main drivers for calculating the unmitigated emissions for a project are the amount used per radionuclide, the maximum operating temperature, and the location of the work. The maximum operating temperature determines the airborne release factor which is dependent on the physical state of the radionuclide. Prior to October 2017, if the radionuclide was heated to greater than 100 deg. C, the radionuclide was assumed to be a gas, which has the highest airborne release factor. This assumption would be overly conservative for radionuclides with high melting and boiling points, which provided a challenge to demonstrate low emissions. In October 2017, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approved an alternative method for INL. This method allows the airborne release factor to be determined by using the melting point and 90% of the boiling point of the radionuclide. This methodology was included in the spreadsheet to allow unmitigated emission calculations for APADs to be completed more efficiently and effectively. Results show a reduction in time completing air emission calculations as well as lower total emissions across all facilities at INL. MFC annual emissions were reduced by 62% from the previous year and Research and Education Campus (REC) facilities were reduced by 38% due to implementation of the approved alternative method. Time spent on APADs, PCMs, and documentation for the annual NESHAP report was also reduced significantly. The spreadsheet provided in Table I provides the potential emission calculations for the 'Advanced Retrieval and Disposition Techniques for Remote Handled Mixed Low Level Waste (RH MLLW) at the Radioactive Scrap and Waste Facility (RSWF)' project. Calculations show the Potential Effective Dose Equivalent (PEDE) at RSWF to be 7.27 E-04 mrem/yr (7.27 E-09 Sv/yr) which is well below the 0.1 mrem/yr threshold. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2011

Ethanol Blends and Engine Operating Strategy Effects on Light-Duty Spark-Ignition Engine Particle Emissions

Spark ignition (SI) engines with direct injection (DI) fueling can improve fuel economy and vehicle power beyond that of port fuel injection (PFI). Despite this distinct advantage, DI fueling often increases particle emissions such that SI exhaust may be subject to future particle emissions regulations. Challenges in controlling particle emissions arise as engines encounter varied fuel composition such as intermediate ethanol blends. Furthermore, modern engines are operated using unconventional breathing strategies with advanced cam-based variable valve actuation systems. In this study, we investigate particle emissions from a multi-cylinder DI engine operated with three different breathing strategies, fueling strategies and fuels. The breathing strategies are conventional throttled operation, early intake valve closing (EIVC) and late intake valve closing (LIVC); the fueling strategies are single injection DI (sDI), multi-injection DI (mDI), and PFI; and the fuels are emissions certification gasoline, E20 and E85. The results indicate the dominant factor influencing particle number concentration emissions for the sDI and mDI strategies is the fuel injection timing. Overly advanced injection timing results in particle formation due to fuel spray impingement on the piston, and overly retarded injection timing results in particle formation due to poor fuel and air mixing. In addition, fuel type has a significant effect on particle emissions for the DI fueling strategies. Gasoline and E20 fuels generate comparable levels of particle emissions, but E85 produces dramatically lower particle number concentration. The particle emissions for E85 are near the detection limit for the FSN instrument, and particle number emissions are one to two orders of magnitude lower for E85 relative to gasoline and E20. We found PFI fueling produces very low levels of particle emissions under all conditions and is much less sensitive to engine breathing strategy and fuel type than the DI fueling strategies. The particle number-size distributions for PFI fueling are of the same order for all of the breathing strategies and fuel types and are one to two orders lower than for the sDI fuel injection strategy with gasoline and E20. Remarkably, the particle emissions for E85 under the sDI fueling strategy are similar to particle emissions with a PFI fueling strategy. Thus by using E85, the efficiency and power advantages of DI fueling can be gained without generating high particle emissions.

02 PETROLEUM↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mitigating Satellite-Based Fire Sampling Limitations in Deriving Biomass Burning Emission Rates: Application to WRF-Chem Model over the Northern sub-Saharan African Region

Largely used in several independent estimates of fire emissions, fire products based on MODIS sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua polar-orbiting satellites have a number of inherent limitations, including (a) inability to detect fires below clouds, (b) significant decrease of detection sensitivity at the edge of scan where pixel sizes are much larger than at nadir, and (c) gaps between adjacent swaths in tropical regions. To remedy these limitations, an empirical method is developed here and applied to correct fire emission estimates based on MODIS pixel level fire radiative power measurements and emission coefficients from the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) biomass burning emission inventory. The analysis was performed for January 2010 over the northern sub-Saharan African region. Simulations from WRF-Chem model using original and adjusted emissions are compared with the aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from MODIS and AERONET as well as aerosol vertical profile from CALIOP data. The comparison confirmed an 30-50% improvement in the model simulation performance (in terms of correlation, bias, and spatial pattern of AOD with respect to observations) by the adjusted emissions that not only increases the original emission amount by a factor of two but also results in the spatially continuous estimates of instantaneous fire emissions at daily time scales. Such improvement cannot be achieved by simply scaling the original emission across the study domain. Even with this improvement, a factor of two underestimations still exists in the modeled AOD, which is within the current global fire emissions uncertainty envelope. Plain Language Summary Polar-orbiting satellites sensors, such as MODIS, have limitations in detecting fires under clouds or when viewing angles are large or in the gaps among satellites' different ground swaths. Here we developed an empirical method to mitigate the effect of these limitations in fire emission estimate. The method is applied to a fire emission inventory (FEER) based on MODIS. We show that, with our method, the adjusted emission inventory improves WRF-Chem simulation of smoke transport and distribution.

emissions properties↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Matthews-WLR-CH4: A New Wetland, Lake, and Reservoir Methane Emissions Data Set

Methane (CH4) is emitted from a variety of sources, both natural and anthropogenic, and is the second most important greenhouse gas contributing to climate change. Natural wetlands are the largest single contributor to annual global CH4 emissions and other inland water sources, such as lakes and reservoirs, produce CH4 but have received less attention. These emission sources are among the most uncertain components of the global CH4 cycle. These uncertainties stem from numerous issues, including the vast variability in these ecosystems and the sensitivity of CH4 emissions to interannual climate variations. Existing CH4 emission models display large differences in wetland spatial extent and include simplified, or lack all together, wetland-type classifications. Furthermore, CH4 emissions from lakes and reservoirs are typically combined with wetlands, or ignored, on a regional and global scale. Our NASA Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science (IDS) study is focused on developing a suite of data sets on wetlands, lakes, and reservoirs (WLR) including global distributions of types, CH4-centric classifications, and daily CH4 emission rates (hereafter Matthews-WLR-CH4). This project is unique in that it comprises source-independent emission data for WLR, the first spatially-explicit data set of lake and reservoir CH4 emissions, and wetland emissions comprising numerous different wetland-type classifications.The focus of this study is to perform the initial evaluation of the wetland and lake CH4 emissions data from Matthews-WLR-CH4. This evaluation will focus on the domain of North America and include: 1) estimates of the contribution of wetland and lake sources to total CH4 emissions and atmospheric mixing ratios, 2) comparisons of wetland fraction and CH4 emissions to a suite of existing models (e.g., Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), Global Carbon Project (GCP)), and 3) an accuracy assessment with in situ airborne and tower-based atmospheric CH4 observations when the Matthews-WLR-CH4 emissions are implemented in forward and inverse CarbonTracker-Lagrange (CT-L) CH4 model simulations. Here we will present the new Matthews-WLR-CH4 wetland and lake CH4 emissions data, the initial evaluation of these products, and the path forward for our project.

Reservoir↗

DOE OSTI2018

Can urbanization process and carbon emission abatement be harmonious? New evidence from China

Highlights: • We study the effect and its mechanism of urbanization process on carbon emissions. • We use threshold regression and mediating effect models at China's provincial-level. • Urbanization and carbon emission abatement in China can achieve a harmonious state. • Abatement effect of urbanization on carbon emissions weakens with a deepening urbanization. • The relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions is mediated by some factors. - Abstract: As the largest carbon emitter and developing country in the world, China's rapid urbanization in recent decades plays a significant role in carbon emissions. However, there is still no consensus on whether urbanization process and carbon emission abatement in China can achieve a harmonious state. Based on the panel data of China's 30 provincial-level regions during 2001–2014, this paper uses the threshold regression model and the mediating effect model to investigate the effect and its mechanism of urbanization process on carbon emissions measured by three indicators: carbon emission scale, per capita carbon emissions, and carbon intensity. The results show that urbanization can contribute to declines in carbon emission scale, per capita carbon emissions, and carbon intensity. That is to say, urbanization can present an abatement effect on carbon emissions. However, such an abatement effect is diminishing with a deepening urbanization. Moreover, the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions is mediated by four mediating variables, i.e., technological progress, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, and foreign direct investment. Therefore, a harmonious relationship between urbanization and carbon emission abatement can be achieved if policy-makers attempt to arouse the positive mediation roles of such factors when formulating relevant policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Measuring greenhouse gas emissions from international air travel of a country’s residents methodological development and application for Sweden

Highlights: • A new method for estimating a country's GHG emissions from international air travel. • A reliable method based on total statistics of departures and on surveys for distance to final destination. • Total emissions for Swedish residents' air travel increased by 61% between 1990 and 2014 • In 2014 Swedish residents air travel emissions was on par with emissions from Swedish car traffic - Abstract: Global civil aviation accounts for 4–5% of total greenhouse gas emissions and these emissions are increasing. In the absence of sufficiently effective global climate instruments, national instruments might be considered as a complement, in which case some way of allocating emissions from international air travel between countries is needed. The purpose of this paper is to develop an accounting method that reflects one country's greenhouse gas emissions from international air travel, and to apply this methodology to Sweden. The new methodology consists of three parts: the number of international air trips made by the country's residents; the average distance of these trips; and the greenhouse gas emissions per passenger km. For Sweden, data for 1990 to 2014 show an increase in the number of trips by Sweden's population of 3.6% per year, resulting in, on average, one international journey (round trip 5800 km) per capita in 2014. The average distance to the final destination has increased only marginally due to simultaneous growth in both long and short trips. However, global average greenhouse gas emissions per passenger km have decreased by 1.9% per year between 1990 and 2014. Because the increase in the number of their trips has outweighed the decrease in emissions per km, the total emissions from Swedish residents' international air travel have increased by 61% between 1990 and 2014. The total emissions from Swedish residents' air travel, including both CO{sub 2} and non-CO{sub 2}-effects, were 11 Mt CO{sub 2} equivalents in 2014, which is the same level as the emissions from Swedish car traffic. This type of reliable data is important when designing policies and for getting public support for new policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2011

Top-down estimate of anthropogenic emission inventories and their interannual variability in Houston using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique

The 2000 and 2006 Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS 2000 and 2006) field campaigns took place in eastern Texas in August-October of 2000 and 2006. Several flights of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) research aircraft were dedicated to characterizing anthropogenic emissions over Houston. Houston is known for having serious problems with non-attainment of air quality standards. We present a method that uses three models and aircraft observations to assess and improve existing emission inventories using an inverse modeling technique. We used 3-dimensional and 4-dimensional variational (3D-VAR and 4D-VAR) inverse modeling techniques based on a least-squares method to improve the spatial and temporal distribution of CO, NOy (sum of all reactive nitrogen compounds), and SO2 emissions predicted by the 4-km-resolution U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emission Inventory (NEI) for 2005. Differences between the prior and posterior inventories are discussed in detail. We found that in 2006 the prior daytime emissions in the urban area of Houston have to be reduced by 40% {+-} 12% for CO and 7% {+-} 13% for NOy. Over the Houston Ship Channel, where industrial emissions are predominant, the prior emissions have to be reduced by 41% {+-} 15% for CO and 51% {+-} 9% for NOy. Major ports around Houston have their NOy emissions reduced as well, probably due to uncertainties in near-shore ship emissions in the EPA NEI inventory. Using the measurements from the two field campaigns, we assessed the interannual emission variability between 2000 and 2006. Daytime CO emissions from the Houston urban area have been reduced by 8% {+-} 20%, while the NOy emissions have increased by 20% {+-} 12% from 2000 to 2006. In the Houston Ship Channel, the daytime NOy emissions have increased by 13% {+-} 17%. Our results show qualitative consistencies with known changes in Houston emissions sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Modeling Study of Direct and Indirect N 2 O Emissions From a Representative Catchment in the U.S. Corn Belt

Indirect nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from drainage ditches and headwater streams are poorly constrained. Few studies have monitored stream N 2 O emissions and fewer modeling studies have been conducted to simulate stream N 2 O emissions. Here, we determined direct and indirect N 2 O emission modules and a corresponding calibration module for use in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, and implemented the expanded SWAT model (termed SWAT-N 2 O) to a representative fourth-stream-order catchment (210 km 2 ) and six first-order stream catchments (0.22–1.83 km 2 ) in southeastern Minnesota. We simulated the spatial and temporal fluctuations of the indirect emissions from streams, identified emission “hot spots” and “hot moments,” and diagnosed the correlations between direct and indirect emissions. We demonstrated that zero-order streams and first-order streams could contribute 0.034–0.066 and 0.011 nmol N 2 O m –2 s –1 (expressed on the basis of unit catchment area) to the total surface emissions, respectively. Emissions from zero-order and first-order streams equal 24–41% of direct emissions from soil, which may explain the emission gap between calculations using top-down and bottom-up methods. Clear spatial patterns were identified for both direct and indirect emissions and their spatial variations were negatively correlated. Our results indicate that the IPCC N 2 O emission factor for streams in the Corn Belt should be increased by 3.2–5.7 times. Increasing precipitation and streamflow in the Corn Belt may potentially increase frequencies of soil anoxic conditions and nitrate leaching to streams, and subsequently increase N 2 O emissions from both soils and streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Author Correction: US oil and gas system emissions from nearly one million aerial site measurements

Correction to: Naturehttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07117-5 Published online 13 March 2024 In the version of the article initially published, several errors were present and have been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article and Supplementary Information. The main results, conclusions, and our interpretations of the data remain unchanged. See the new Supplementary Information Section S15 for a more detailed description of the errors corrected and the resulting effects on the analysis. Data processing and methods corrections Overflight count correction: We previously used pre-computed source coverage data for some Carbon Mapper campaigns that was computed differently than was required for our analysis. We have re-computed Carbon Mapper source coverage based on flightline polygons and source coordinates. Transition point computation, well sites: The updated version now correctly compares the cumulative emissions distribution of simulated well site emissions with that of aerially detected sources (rather than plumes) when computing the transition point. Transition point computation, midstream: Additionally, the transition point calculation has been corrected to exclude aerially detected midstream emissions below the transition point, which was previously leading to double counting of these emissions. This error was not present for upstream (well site) emissions. Calculation errors Unit error: We corrected a specific unit conversion error affecting well site emissions in the Kairos Fort Worth dataset. Across all datasets, we also correct the conversion factor for converting from standard volume to mass for midstream emissions. Sorting error: We correct code that was applying incorrect sorting when computing correction factors to account for partial detection at well sites. Small typographical corrections were made in Fig. 1b and SI Section S4.1. Data processing and methods corrections Overflight count correction: We previously used pre-computed source coverage data for some Carbon Mapper campaigns that was computed differently than was required for our analysis. We have re-computed Carbon Mapper source coverage based on flightline polygons and source coordinates. Transition point computation, well sites: The updated version now correctly compares the cumulative emissions distribution of simulated well site emissions with that of aerially detected sources (rather than plumes) when computing the transition point. Transition point computation, midstream: Additionally, the transition point calculation has been corrected to exclude aerially detected midstream emissions below the transition point, which was previously leading to double counting of these emissions. This error was not present for upstream (well site) emissions. Calculation errors Unit error: We corrected a specific unit conversion error affecting well site emissions in the Kairos Fort Worth dataset. Across all datasets, we also correct the conversion factor for converting from standard volume to mass for midstream emissions. Sorting error: We correct code that was applying incorrect sorting when computing correction factors to account for partial detection at well sites. Small typographical corrections were made in Fig. 1b and SI Section S4.1. The following practices may help researchers conducting similar analyses avoid making similar errors: 1, Clear, accessible documentation explaining the interpretation of all columns in data input tables and all internal variables within the model, 2, Simple cross-check calculations computed before and after unit conversions.

Sherwin, Evan D↗

DOE OSTI2015

Emissions of nitrogen oxides from US urban areas: estimation from Ozone Monitoring Instrument retrievals for 2005–2014

Satellite remote sensing of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) can provide valuable information for estimating surface nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions. Using an exponentially modified Gaussian (EMG) method and taking into account the effect of wind on observed NO 2 distributions, we estimate 3-year moving-average emissions of summertime NO x from 35 US (United States) urban areas directly from NO 2 retrievals of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) during 2005–2014. Following conclusions of previous studies that the EMG method provides robust and accurate emission estimates under strong-wind conditions, we derive top-down NO x emissions from each urban area by applying the EMG method to OMI data with wind speeds greater than 3–5 m s -1 . Meanwhile, we find that OMI NO 2 observations under weak-wind conditions (i.e., < 3 m s −1 ) are qualitatively better correlated to the surface NO x source strength in comparison to all-wind OMI maps; therefore, we use them to calculate the satellite-observed NO 2 burdens of urban areas and compare with NO x emission estimates. The EMG results show that OMI-derived NO x emissions are highly correlated ( R > 0.93) with weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens as well as with bottom-up NO x emission estimates over 35 urban areas, implying a linear response of the OMI observations to surface emissions under weak-wind conditions. The simultaneous EMG-obtained effective NO 2 lifetimes (~ 3.5 ± 1.3 h), however, are biased low in comparison to the summertime NO 2 chemical lifetimes. In general, isolated urban areas with NO x emission intensities greater than ~ 2 Mg h -1 produce statistically significant weak-wind signals in 3-year average OMI data. From 2005 to 2014, we estimate that total OMI-derived NO x emissions over all selected US urban areas decreased by 49 %, consistent with reductions of 43, 47, 49, and 44 % in the total bottom-up NO x emissions, the sum of weak-wind OMI NO 2 columns, the total weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens, and the averaged NO 2 concentrations, respectively, reflecting the success of NO x control programs for both mobile sources and power plants. The decrease rates of these NO x -related quantities are found to be faster (i.e., -6.8 to -9.3 % yr −1 ) before 2010 and slower (i.e., -3.4 to -4.9 % yr −1 ) after 2010. For individual urban areas, we calculate the R values of pair-wise trends among the OMI-derived and bottom-up NO x emissions, the weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens, and ground-based NO 2 measurements, and high correlations are found for all urban areas (median R = 0.8), particularly large ones ( R up to 0.97). The results of the current work indicate that using the EMG method and considering the wind effect, the OMI data allow for the estimation of NO x emissions from urban areas and the direct constraint of emission trends with reasonable accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Emissions of nitrogen oxides from US urban areas: estimation from Ozone Monitoring Instrument retrievals for 2005-2014

Satellite remote sensing of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) can provide valuable information for estimating surface nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions. Using an exponentially-modified Gaussian (EMG) method and taking into account the effect of wind on observed NO 2 distributions, we estimate three-year moving-average emissions of summertime NO x from 35 US urban areas directly from NO 2 retrievals of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) during 2005–2014. Following the conclusions of previous studies that the EMG method provides robust and accurate emission estimates under strong-wind conditions, we derive top-down NO x emissions from each urban area by applying the EMG method to OMI data with wind speeds greater than 3–5 m s -1 . Meanwhile, we find that OMI NO 2 observations under weak-wind conditions (i.e., < 3 m s -1 ) are qualitatively better correlated with the surface NO x source strength in comparison to all-wind OMI maps; and therefore we use them to calculate the satellite-observed NO 2 burdens of urban areas and compare with NO x emission estimates. The EMG results show that OMI-derived NO x emissions are highly correlated ( R > 0.93) with weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens as well as bottom-up NO x emission estimates over 35 urban areas, implying a linear response of the OMI observations to surface emissions under weak-wind conditions. The simultaneous, EMG-obtained, effective NO 2 lifetimes (~3.5 ± 1.3 h), however, are biased low in comparison to the summertime NO 2 chemical lifetimes. In general, isolated urban areas with NO x emission intensities greater than ~ 2 Mg h -1 produce statistically significant weak-wind signals in three-year average OMI data. From 2005 to 2014, we estimate that total OMI-derived NO x emissions over all selected US urban areas decreased by 49%, consistent with reductions of 43, 47, 49, and 44% in the total bottom-up NO x emissions, the sum of weak-wind OMI NO 2 columns, the total weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens, and the averaged NO 2 concentrations, respectively, reflecting the success of NO x control programs for both mobile sources and power plants. The decrease rates of these NO x -related quantities are found to be faster (i.e., -6.8 to -9.3% yr -1 ) before 2010 and slower (i.e., -3.4 to -4.9% yr -1 ) after 2010. For individual urban areas, we calculate the R values of pair-wise trends among the OMI-derived and bottom-up NO x emissions, the weak-wind OMI NO 2 burdens, and ground-based NO 2 measurements; and high correlations are found for all urban areas (median R = 0.8), particularly large ones ( R up to 0.97). The results of the current work indicate that using the EMG method and considering the wind effect, the OMI data allow for the estimation of NO x emissions from urban areas and the direct constraint of emission trends with reasonable accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2010

A SIMPLE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE NEAR- AND MID-INFRARED EMISSION OF GALAXIES AND THEIR STAR FORMATION RATES

We have measured the near-infrared colors and the fluxes of individual pixels in 68 galaxies common to the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxies Survey and the Large Galaxy Atlas Survey. Pixels from each galaxy are grouped into regions of increasingly red near-infrared colors. As expected, the majority of pixels are shown to have relatively constant NIR flux ratios (log{sub 10} I{sub 3.6}/I{sub 1.25} = -0.30 {+-} 0.07 and log{sub 10} I{sub 4.5}/I{sub 3.6} = -0.19 {+-} 0.02), representing the blackbody continuum emission of main sequence stars. However, pixels with red NIR colors correspond to pixels with higher H{sub {alpha}} emission and dust extinction. We show that the NIR colors are correlated to both quantities, with the strongest correlation to the intrinsic H{sub {alpha}} emission. In addition, in regions of high star formation, the average intensity of pixels in red-excess regions (at 1.25 {mu}m, 3.6 {mu}m, 4.5 {mu}m, 5.6 {mu}m, 8.0 {mu}m and 24 {mu}m) scales linearly with the intrinsic intensity of H{alpha} emission, and thus with the star formation rate (SFR) within the pixel. This suggests that most NIR-excess regions are not red because their light is being depleted by absorption. Instead, they are red because additional infrared light is being contributed by a process linked to star formation. This is surprising because the shorter wavelength bands in our study (1.25 {mu}m-5.6 {mu}m) do not probe emission from cold (10-20 K) and warm (50-100 K) dust associated with star formation in molecular clouds. However, emission from hot dust (700-1000 K) and/or polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) molecules can explain the additional emission seen at the shorter wavelengths in our study. The contribution from hot dust and/or PAH emission at 2 {mu}m-5 {mu}m and PAH emission at 5.6 {mu}m and 8.0 {mu}m scales linearly with warm dust emission at 24 {mu}m and the intrinsic H{alpha} emission. Since both are tied to the SFR, our analysis shows that the NIR excess continuum emission and PAH emission at {approx}1-8 {mu}m can be added to spectral energy distribution models in a very straightforward way, by simply adding an additional component to the models that scales linearly with SFR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗