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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Partitioning the LIS/OTD Lightning Climatological Dataset into Separate Ground and Cloud Flash Distributions

Presently, it is not well understood how to best model nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions from lightning because lightning is highly variable. Peak current, channel length, channel altitude, stroke multiplicity, and the number of flashes that occur in a particular region (i.e., flash density) all influence the amount of lightning NOx produced. Moreover, these 5 variables are not the same for ground and cloud flashes; e.g., cloud flashes normally have lower peak currents, higher altitudes, and higher flash densities than ground flashes [see (Koshak, 2009) for additional details]. Because the existing satellite observations of lightning (Fig. 1) from the Lightning Imaging Sensor/Optical Transient Detector (LIS/OTD) do not distinguish between ground and cloud fashes, which produce different amounts of NOx, it is very difficult to accurately account for the regional/global production of lightning NOx. Hence, the ability to partition the LIS/OTD lightning climatology into separate ground and cloud flash distributions would substantially benefit the atmospheric chemistry modeling community. NOx indirectly influences climate because it controls the concentration of ozone and hydroxyl radicals in the atmosphere. The importance of lightning-produced NOx is empasized throughout the scientific literature (see for example, Huntrieser et al. 1998). In fact, lightning is the most important NOx source in the upper troposphere with a global production rate estimated to vary between 2 and 20 Tg (N)yr(sup -1) (Lee et al., 1997), with more recent estimates of about 6 Tg(N)yr(sup -1) (Martin et al., 2007). In order to make accurate predictions, global chemistry/climate models (as well as regional air quality modells) must more accurately account for the effects of lightning NOx. In particular, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E (Schmidt et al., 2005) and the GEOS-CHEM global chemical transport model (Bey et al., 2001) would each benefit from a partitioning of the LIS/OTD lightning climatology. In this study, we introduce a new technique for retrieving the ground flash fraction in a set of N lightning observed from space and that occur within a specific latitude/longitude bin. The method is briefly described and applied to CONUS lightning that have already been partitioned into ground and cloud flashes using independent ground-based observations, in order to assess the accuracy of the retrieval method. The retrieval errors are encouragingly small.

Koshak, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Modeling Approach for Handling Qualities and Controls Safety Analysis of Electric Air Taxi Vehicles

The combination of modern advances in electric propulsion, fly-by-wire controls, autonomy, and increasing demand for short range air taxi operations, is currently producing an outburst of vehicle designs more diverse than ever before. Advanced software tools are needed to support the rapid and safe introduction of any design into the airspace, including the safety of the deployed flight control system and vehicle handling qualities. This paper presents a methodology for building air taxi vehicle models with distributed electric propulsion for use in analyzing flight control system safety at the conceptual design level.The approach builds on existing software tools capable of outputting aeromechanics-based linear perturbation models for Vertical Take-off and Landing vehicles with multiple rotors. Rotor torque inputs are then converted into equivalent voltage control inputs, and the linear state and input dynamics matrices are modified to include electric motor dynamics with common parameters for direct-current electric motors. The linear perturbation dynamics are then stitched across multiple operating points into a quasi-Linear Parameter Varying model that covers the full flight envelope. A Model Predictive Controller is developed for use with the full envelope model, and a tradeoff analysis between handling quality and motor requirements is demonstrated using a six passenger NASA air taxi reference design.

Urban Air Mobility↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

ARRA: Reconfiguring Power Systems to Minimize Cascading Failures - Models and Algorithms

Building on models of electrical power systems, and on powerful mathematical techniques including optimization, model predictive control, and simluation, this project investigated important issues related to the stable operation of power grids. A topic of particular focus was cascading failures of the power grid: simulation, quantification, mitigation, and control. We also analyzed the vulnerability of networks to component failures, and the design of networks that are responsive to and robust to such failures. Numerous other related topics were investigated, including energy hubs and cascading stall of induction machines

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Statistical behaviour of adaptive multilevel splitting algorithms in simple models

Adaptive multilevel splitting algorithms have been introduced rather recently for estimating tail distributions in a fast and efficient way. In particular, they can be used for computing the so-called reactive trajectories corresponding to direct transitions from one metastable state to another. The algorithm is based on successive selection–mutation steps performed on the system in a controlled way. It has two intrinsic parameters, the number of particles/trajectories and the reaction coordinate used for discriminating good or bad trajectories. We investigate first the convergence in law of the algorithm as a function of the timestep for several simple stochastic models. Second, we consider the average duration of reactive trajectories for which no theoretical predictions exist. The most important aspect of this work concerns some systems with two degrees of freedom. They are studied in detail as a function of the reaction coordinate in the asymptotic regime where the number of trajectories goes to infinity. We show that during phase transitions, the statistics of the algorithm deviate significatively from known theoretical results when using non-optimal reaction coordinates. In this case, the variance of the algorithm is peaking at the transition and the convergence of the algorithm can be much slower than the usual expected central limit behaviour. The duration of trajectories is affected as well. Moreover, reactive trajectories do not correspond to the most probable ones. Such behaviour disappears when using the optimal reaction coordinate called committor as predicted by the theory. We finally investigate a three-state Markov chain which reproduces this phenomenon and show logarithmic convergence of the trajectory durations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional variability in the environmental controls of precipitation regimes in the tropics

The environmental factors that control precipitation regimes in Boreal winter rainfall in the tropics and their regional variabilities are examined using a simple statistical analysis and a machine learning model. Radar-derived precipitation from field campaigns at Darwin Australia, Manaus Brazil, and the Equatorial Indian Ocean, along with the corresponding large-scale environmental variables from ERA5 reanalysis, are used. The dependence of marginal distributions of frequencies of these regimes on five environmental variables are calculated. The variables are hourly column integrated precipitable water (PW), convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and lower and upper tropospheric wind shear. The simple machine learning model that predicts the probability of transition from suppressed to an active regime as a function of the environmental variables is designed and optimized for a potential application as a trigger function for convection parameterizations. To the first order the analysis shows an abrupt increase in the probability of an active regime near PW > 60 mm and CIN of <100 J kg -1 . The key differences in the frequencies of active regimes among the regions are found to be related to the fact that over Darwin there is strong variability in PW while CIN is generally low. Over Amazon, on the other hand, both PW and CIN are quite variable. Over the DYNAMO domain the comparatively frequent low PW is compensated for by consistently low CIN resulting in a moderate frequency of an active regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development and validation of HERWIG 7 tunes from CMS underlying-event measurements

This paper presents new sets of parameters (“tunes”) for the underlying-event model of the ${\textsc {herwig}} \,7$ event generator. These parameters control the description of multiple-parton interactions (MPI) and colour reconnection in ${\textsc {herwig}} \,7$, and are obtained from a fit to minimum-bias data collected by the CMS experiment at $\sqrt{s}=0.9$, 7, and $13 \,\text {Te}\text {V} $. The tunes are based on the NNPDF 3.1 next-to-next-to-leading-order parton distribution function (PDF) set for the parton shower, and either a leading-order or next-to-next-to-leading-order PDF set for the simulation of MPI and the beam remnants. Predictions utilizing the tunes are produced for event shape observables in electron-positron collisions, and for minimum-bias, inclusive jet, top quark pair, and Z and W boson events in proton-proton collisions, and are compared with data. Each of the new tunes describes the data at a reasonable level, and the tunes using a leading-order PDF for the simulation of MPI provide the best description of the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of social structure and management on risk of disease establishment in wild pigs

Contact heterogeneity among hosts determines invasion and spreading dynamics of infectious disease, thus its characterization is essential for identifying effective disease control strategies. Yet, little is known about the factors shaping contact networks in many 28 wildlife species and how wildlife management actions might affect contact networks. Wild pigs in North America are an invasive, socially-structured species that pose a health concern for domestic swine given their ability to transmit numerous devastating diseases 2 such as African swine fever (ASF). Using proximity loggers and GPS data from 48 wild pigs in Florida and South Carolina, USA, we employed a probabilistic framework to estimate weighted contact networks. We determined the effects of sex, social group, and spatial distribution (monthly home range overlap and distance) on wild pig contact. We also estimated the impacts of management-induced perturbations on contact and inferred their effects on ASF establishment in wild pigs with simulation. Social group membership was the primary factor influencing contacts. Between-group contacts depended primarily on space use characteristics, with fewer contacts among groups separated by >2 km and no contacts among groups >4 km apart within a month. Modeling ASF dynamics on the contact network demonstrated that indirect contacts resulting from baiting (a typical method of attracting wild pigs or game species to a site to enhance recreational hunting) increased the risk of disease establishment by ~33% relative to direct contact. Low-intensity population reduction (<5.9% of the population) had no detectable impact on contact structure but reduced predicted ASF establishment risk relative to no population reduction. Here, we demonstrate an approach for understanding the relative role of spatial, social, and individual-level characteristics in shaping contact networks and predicting their effects on disease establishment risk, thus providing insight for optimizing disease control in spatially- and socially-structured wildlife species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A high-throughput workflow to analyze sequence-conformation relationships and explore hydrophobic patterning in disordered peptoids

Understanding how a macromolecule’s primary sequence governs its conformational landscape is crucial for elucidating its function, yet these design principles are still emerging for macromolecules with intrinsic disorder. Herein, we introduce a high-throughput workflow that implements a practical colorimetric conformational assay, introduces a semi-automated sequencing protocol using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization and tandem mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS/MS), and develops a generalizable sequence-structure algorithm. Using a model system of 20mer peptidomimetics containing polar glycine and hydrophobic N-butylglycine residues, we identified nine classifications of conformational disorder and isolated 122 unique sequences across varied compositions and conformations. Conformational distributions of three compositionally identical library sequences were corroborated through atomistic simulations and ion mobility spectrometry coupled with liquid chromatography. A data-driven strategy was developed using existing sequence variables and data-derived “motifs” to inform a machine-learning algorithm toward conformation prediction. Here, this multifaceted approach enhances our understanding of sequence-conformation relationships and offers a powerful tool for accelerating the discovery of materials with conformational control.

data-driven analysis↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coherent and Dynamic Small Polaron Delocalization in CuFeO 2

Small polarons remain a bottleneck in realizing efficient transition metal oxide devices. Routes to engineer small polaron coupling to electronic states and lattice modes to control carrier localization remain unclear. Here, we measure small polaron formation in CuFeO 2 using transient extreme ultraviolet reflection spectroscopy and compare to theoretical predictions in realistically parametrized Holstein models, demonstrating that polaron localization depends on coupling to high-frequency versus low-frequency phonon bath components. We measure small polaron formation on a comparable ∼100 fs timescale to other Fe(III) compounds. Dynamic delocalization of the polaron follows formation through a coherent lattice expansion between Fe–O layers and charge-sharing with surrounding Fe(IV) states. Simulations reveal two major factors dictate polaron formation timescales: phonon density and reorganization energy distributions between acoustic and optical modes, matching experimental findings. Our work shows how electronic-structural coupling in a polaron-host material can be leveraged to suppress polaronic effects for various applications.

Hematite↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Nanoparticle Suspension Viscoelasticity for Multimaterial 3D Printing of Silica–Titania Glass

A lack of predictive methodology is frequently a major bottleneck in materials development for additive manufacturing. Hence, exploration of new printable materials often relies on the serendipity of trial and error approaches, which is time-consuming, labor-intensive, and costly. In this paper, we present an approach to overcome these issues by quantifying and controlling the viscoelasticity of inks for multimaterial 3D printing of silica–titania glass using direct ink writing (DIW). We formulate simple silica and silica–titania inks from a suspension of fumed silica nanoparticles in an organic solvent with a dissolved molecular titania precursor. We use a small set of experimental rheological data and estimates of interaction potentials from colloidal theory to develop a predictive tool that allows us to design and obtain compatible inks that are matched both in desired rheological properties (viscosity profiles and elastic modulus) as well as solids loading. The model incorporates silica particle volume fraction, particle size, particle size distribution, and titania precursor concentration, and captures the effects of all formulation parameters on the measured viscoelasticity in a single curve. We validate the ink formulations predicted by the model and find that the materials can be very well matched in rheological properties as desired for 3D printing. Using the DIW and heat treatment methods we have reported previously, we use these inks to print and process a fully transparent glass with spatial change in dopant composition and refractive index. Finally, we believe that this approach can be extended to other colloidal systems and allow predictive ink formulation design for desired printability in direct ink write manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A robust dynamic state estimation approach against model errors caused by load changes

Dynamic state estimation (DSE) plays an important role in power system security monitoring and online control. In practice, there are two approaches to implementing DSE. The first approach is distributed DSE, which is based on the assumption that the terminal bus of each generator can be measured by PMUs (phasor measurement units). The assumption cannot be satisfied currently, however, because PMUs usually are installed at important high-voltage buses such as 500-kV buses installed in portions of the grid overseen by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Another issue of this approach is that performance of DSE is vulnerable to bad measurement data. The reason for this vulnerability is that DSE is performed separately through measurements at each terminal bus, and measurements at terminal buses are the only measurement upon which DSE can rely. Therefore, important redundant measurements are not included in this approach. The second approach is centralized DSE. This approach does not have the requirement for PMU location, and redundant measurements can be considered fully. However, load changes and grid topology changes impact centralized DSE. In this paper, we propose a new approach for handling the impact of load changes on DSE. We have developed a new algorithm that includes two sequential steps. In the first step, errors caused by load changes are detected by analyzing the difference between prediction results and measured results. In the second step, once model error is detected, a model optimization procedure is run to correct the error so the state estimation error can be mitigated. Simulation results from the IEEE 68 bus system show that the proposed approach can effectively handle model errors caused by load changes.

robust dynamic state estimation, load change, powe↗
DOE OSTI2013

BINARY FREQUENCIES IN A SAMPLE OF GLOBULAR CLUSTERS. I. METHODOLOGY AND INITIAL RESULTS

Binary stars are thought to be a controlling factor in globular cluster evolution, since they can heat the environmental stars by converting their binding energy to kinetic energy during dynamical interactions. Through such interaction, the binaries determine the time until core collapse. To test predictions of this model, we have determined binary fractions for 35 clusters. Here we present our methodology with a representative globular cluster NGC 4590. We use Hubble Space Telescope archival Advanced Camera for Surveys data in the F606W and F814W bands and apply point-spread-function-fitting photometry to obtain high quality color-magnitude diagrams. We formulate the star superposition effect as a Poisson probability distribution function, with parameters optimized through Monte Carlo simulations. A model-independent binary fraction of (6.2 {+-} 0.3)% is obtained by counting stars that extend to the red side of the residual color distribution after accounting for the photometric errors and the star superposition effect. A model-dependent binary fraction is obtained by constructing models with a known binary fraction and an assumed binary mass-ratio distribution function. This leads to a binary fraction range of 6.8%-10.8%, depending on the assumed shape to the binary mass-ratio distribution, with the best fit occurring for a binary distribution that favors low mass ratios (and higher binary fractions). We also represent the method for radial analysis of the binary fraction in the representative case of NGC 6981, which shows a decreasing trend for the binary fraction toward the outside, consistent with theoretical predictions for the dynamical effect on the binary fraction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1991

A research program in empirical computer science

During the grant reporting period our primary activities have been to begin preparation for the establishment of a research program in experimental computer science. The focus of research in this program will be safety-critical systems. Many questions that arise in the effort to improve software dependability can only be addressed empirically. For example, there is no way to predict the performance of the various proposed approaches to building fault-tolerant software. Performance models, though valuable, are parameterized and cannot be used to make quantitative predictions without experimental determination of underlying distributions. In the past, experimentation has been able to shed some light on the practical benefits and limitations of software fault tolerance. It is common, also, for experimentation to reveal new questions or new aspects of problems that were previously unknown. A good example is the Consistent Comparison Problem that was revealed by experimentation and subsequently studied in depth. The result was a clear understanding of a previously unknown problem with software fault tolerance. The purpose of a research program in empirical computer science is to perform controlled experiments in the area of real-time, embedded control systems. The goal of the various experiments will be to determine better approaches to the construction of the software for computing systems that have to be relied upon. As such it will validate research concepts from other sources, provide new research results, and facilitate the transition of research results from concepts to practical procedures that can be applied with low risk to NASA flight projects. The target of experimentation will be the production software development activities undertaken by any organization prepared to contribute to the research program. Experimental goals, procedures, data analysis and result reporting will be performed for the most part by the University of Virginia.

Knight, J. C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding the Role of Extrinsic Impurities in Bulk Nb SRF Cavities

High gradient and high quality factor superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavities are essential for efficient particle acceleration in next-generation accelerators. This work demonstrates that the superconducting performance of bulk niobium can be enhanced through a controlled introduction of interstitial oxygen and nitrogen. Thermal and chemical surface treatments modify the concentration and distribution of these impurities, enabling systematic tuning of SRF cavity performance. By combining cavity RF measurements with quantitative materials characterizations, we isolate the impact of impurity concentration on BCS surface resistance and identify the mechanisms by which interstitial impurities alter the superconducting properties of niobium. We find that nitrogen is an order of magnitude more effective than oxygen in reducing BCS resistance at 16 MV/m and that the reduction arises from a combination of mean free path optimization and superconducting gap enhancement. Using these insights, we develop a predictive model that estimates cavity performance directly from room temperature sample material studies, reducing the reliance on full-scale cryogenic tests for surface treatment development. We then apply this model to explore co-doping strategies, demonstrating that combining interstitial oxygen and nitrogen achieves a synergistic reduction in BCS resistance. These results establish co-doping as a viable path for the development of surface-engineered niobium for future high quality factor SRF applications.

Hu, Hannah [Chicago U.]↗
DOE OSTI2020

New vortex‐lift and tangential‐force models for HAWT aerodynamic load prediction

Abstract Horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWTs) experience three‐dimensional rotational and unsteady aerodynamic phenomena at the rotor blades sections. These highly unsteady three‐dimensional effects have a dramatic impact on the aerodynamic load distributions on the blades, in particular, when they occur at high angles of attack due to stall delay and dynamic stall. Unfortunately, there is no complete understanding of the flow physics yet at these unsteady 3D flow conditions, and hence, the existing published theoretical models are often incapable of modelling the impact on the turbine response realistically. The purpose of this paper is to provide an insight on the combined influence of the stall delay and dynamic stall on the blade load history of wind turbines in controlled and uncontrolled conditions. New dynamic stall vortex and nonlinear tangential force coefficient modules, which integrally take into account the three dimensional rotational effect, are also proposed in this paper. This module along with the unsteady influence of turbulent wind speed and tower shadow is implemented in a blade element momentum (BEM) model to estimate the aerodynamic loads on a rotating blade more accurately. This work presents an important step to help modelling the combined influence of the stall delay and dynamic stall on the load history of the rotating wind turbine blades which is vital to have lighter turbine blades and improved wind turbine design systems.

Elgammi, Moutaz↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep neural network improves the estimation of polygenic risk scores for breast cancer

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate the genetic risk of an individual for a complex disease based on many genetic variants across the whole genome. Here, we compared a series of computational models for estimation of breast cancer PRS. A deep neural network (DNN) was found to outperform alternative machine learning techniques and established statistical algorithms, including BLUP, BayesA, and LDpred. In the test cohort with 50% prevalence, the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) were 67.4% for DNN, 64.2% for BLUP, 64.5% for BayesA, and 62.4% for LDpred. BLUP, BayesA, and LPpred all generated PRS that followed a normal distribution in the case population. However, the PRS generated by DNN in the case population followed a bimodal distribution composed of two normal distributions with distinctly different means. This suggests that DNN was able to separate the case population into a high-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS significantly higher than the control population and a normal-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS similar to the control population. This allowed DNN to achieve 18.8% recall at 90% precision in the test cohort with 50% prevalence, which can be extrapolated to 65.4% recall at 20% precision in a general population with 12% prevalence. Interpretation of the DNN model identified salient variants that were assigned insignificant p values by association studies, but were important for DNN prediction. These variants may be associated with the phenotype through nonlinear relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Solar Sail Topology Variations Due to On-Orbit Thermal Effects

The objective of this research was to predict the influence of non-uniform temperature distribution on solar sail topology and the effect of such topology variations on sail performance (thrust, torque). Specifically considered were the thermal effects due to on orbit attitude control maneuvers. Such maneuvers are expected to advance the sail to a position off-normal to the sun by as much as 35 degrees; a solar sail initially deformed by typical pre-tension and solar pressure loads may suffer significant thermally induced strains due to the non-uniform heating caused by these maneuvers. This on-orbit scenario was investigated through development of an automated analytical shape model that iterates many times between sail shape and sail temperature distribution before converging on a final coupled thermal structural affected sail topology. This model utilizes a validated geometrically non-linear finite element model and a thermal radiation subroutine. It was discovered that temperature gradients were deterministic for the off-normal solar angle cases as were thermally induced strains. Performance effects were found to be moderately significant but not as large as initially suspected. A roll torque was detected, and the sail center of pressure shifted by a distance that may influence on-orbit sail control stability.

Banik, Jeremy A.↗