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NASA NTRS2017

Uncertainty Assessment of Space-Borne Passive Soil Moisture Retrievals

The uncertainty associated with passive soil moisture retrieval is hard to quantify, and known to be underlain by various, diverse, and complex causes. Factors affecting space-borne retrieved soil moisture estimation include: (i) the optimization or inversion method applied to the radiative transfer model (RTM), such as e.g. the Single Channel Algorithm (SCA), or the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), (ii) the selection of the observed brightness temperatures (Tbs), e.g. polarization and incidence angle, (iii) the definition of the cost function and the impact of prior information in it, and (iv) the RTM parameterization (e.g. parameterizations officially used by the SMOS L2 and SMAP L2 retrieval products, ECMWF-based SMOS assimilation product, SMAP L4 assimilation product, and perturbations from those configurations). This study aims at disentangling the relative importance of the above-mentioned sources of uncertainty, by carrying out soil moisture retrieval experiments, using SMOS Tb observations in different settings, of which some are mentioned above. The ensemble uncertainties are evaluated at 11 reference CalVal sites, over a time period of more than 5 years. These experimental retrievals were inter-compared, and further confronted with in situ soil moisture measurements and operational SMOS L2 retrievals, using commonly used skill metrics to quantify the temporal uncertainty in the retrievals.

Quets, Jan↗
NASA NTRS2010

Statistical Model Selection for TID Hardness Assurance

Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) methodologies against Total Ionizing Dose (TID) degradation impose rigorous statistical treatments for data from a part's Radiation Lot Acceptance Test (RLAT) and/or its historical performance. However, no similar methods exist for using "similarity" data - that is, data for similar parts fabricated in the same process as the part under qualification. This is despite the greater difficulty and potential risk in interpreting of similarity data. In this work, we develop methods to disentangle part-to-part, lot-to-lot and part-type-to-part-type variation. The methods we develop apply not just for qualification decisions, but also for quality control and detection of process changes and other "out-of-family" behavior. We begin by discussing the data used in ·the study and the challenges of developing a statistic providing a meaningful measure of degradation across multiple part types, each with its own performance specifications. We then develop analysis techniques and apply them to the different data sets.

Ladbury, R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Amplification of Heat Extremes by Plant CO2 Physiological Forcing

Plants influence extreme heat events by regulating land-atmosphere water and energy exchanges. The contribution of plants to changes in future heat extremes will depend on the responses of vegetation growth and physiology to the direct and indirect effects of elevated CO2. Here we use a suite of earth system models to disentangle the radiative versus vegetation effects of elevated CO2 on heat wave characteristics. Vegetation responses to a quadrupling of CO2 increase summer heat wave occurrence by 20 days or more-30-50% of the radiative response alone-across tropical and mid-to-high latitude forests. These increases are caused by CO2 physiological forcing, which diminishes transpiration and its associated cooling effect, and reduces clouds and precipitation. In contrast to recent suggestions, our results indicate CO2-driven vegetation changes enhance future heat wave frequency and intensity in most vegetated regions despite transpiration-driven soil moisture savings and increases in aboveground biomass from CO2 fertilization.

Skinner, Christopher B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The First Fermi-LAT SNR Catalog and Cosmic Ray Implications

While supernova remnants (SNRs) are widely thought to be powerful cosmic-ray accelerators, indirect evidence comes from a small number of well-studied cases. Here we systematically determine the gamma-ray emission detected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) from all known Galactic SNRs, disentangling them from the sea of cosmic-ray generated photons in the Galactic plane. Using LAT data we have characterized the 1-100 GeV emission in 279 regions containing SNRs, accounting for systematic uncertainties caused by source misattribution and instrumental response. We classified 30 sources as SNRs, using spatial overlap with the radio emission position. For all the remaining regions we evaluated upper limits on SNRs' emission. In the First Fermi-LAT SNR Catalog there is a study of the common characteristics of these SNRs, such as comparisons between GeV, radio and TeV quantities. We show that previously satisfactory models of SNRs' GeV emission no longer adequately describe the data. To address the question of cosmic ray (CR) origins, we also examine the SNRs' maximal CR contribution assuming the GeV emission arises solely from proton interactions. Improved breadth and quality of multiwavelength (MW) data, including distances and local densities, and more, higher resolution gamma-ray data with correspondingly improved Galactic diffuse models will strengthen this constraint.

de Palma, F.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Clumpy Absorber in the High-Mass X-Ray Binary Vela X-1

Bright and eclipsing, the high-mass X-ray binary Vela X-1 offers a unique opportunity to study accretion onto a neutron star from clumpy winds of O/B stars and to disentangle the complex accretion geometry of these systems. In Chandra-HETGS spectroscopy at orbital phase approximately 0.25, when our line of sight towards the source does not pass through the large-scale accretion structure such as the accretion wake, we observe changes in overall spectral shape on timescales of a few kiloseconds. This spectral variability is, at least in part, caused by changes in overall absorption and we show that such strongly variable absorption cannot be caused by unperturbed clumpy winds of O/B stars. We detect line features from high and low ionization species of silicon, magnesium, and neon whose strengths and presence depend on the overall level of absorption. These features imply a co-existence of cool and hot gas phases in the system, which we interpret as a highly variable, structured accretion flow close to the compact object such as has been recently seen in simulations of wind accretion in high-mass X-ray binaries.

Grinberg, V.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The First Fermi-LAT SNR Catalog and Cosmic Ray Implications

While supernova remnants (SNRs) are widely thought to be powerful cosmicray accelerators, indirect evidence comes from a small number of well-studied cases. Here we systematically determine the gamma-ray emission detected by the ermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) from all known Galactic SNRs, disentangling them from the sea of cosmic-ray generated photons in the Galactic plane. Using LAT data we have characterized the 1-100 GeV emission in 279 regions containing SNRs, accounting for systematic uncertainties caused by source misattribution and instrumental response. We classified 30 sources as SNRs, using spatial overlap with the radio emission position. For all the remaining regions we evaluated upper limits on SNRs' emission. In the First Fermi-LAT SNR Catalog there is a study of the common characteristics of these SNRs, such as comparisons between GeV, radio and TeV quantities. We show that previously satisfactory models of SNRs' GeV emission no longer adequately describe the data. To address the question of cosmic ray (CR) origins, we also examine the SNRs' maximal CR contribution assuming the GeV emission arises solely from proton interactions. Improved breadth and quality of multiwavelength (MW) data, including distances and local densities, and more, higher resolution gamma-ray data with correspondingly improved Galactic diffuse models will strengthen this constraint.

de Palma, F.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Emissions Relationships Among Western Forest Fire Plumes: I. Emission Factors Free from Mixing Errors

Previous studies of emission factors from biomass burning are prone to largeerrors since they ignore the interplay of mixing and varying pre-fire backgroundCO2 levels. Such complications severely affected our studies of 446 forest fireplume samples measured in the Western US by the science teams of NASAsSEAC4RS and ARCTAS airborne missions. Consequently we propose a MixedEffects Regression Emission Technique (MERET) to check techniques like theNormalized Emission Ratio Method (NERM), where use of sequentialobservations cannot disentangle emissions and mixing. We also evaluate asimpler consensus technique. All techniques relate emissions to fuel burnedusing C burn = Δ Ctot added to the fire plume, where ≈ Ctot (CO2 + CO). Mixed-effectsregression can estimate pre-fire background values of Ctot (indexed byobservation j) simultaneously with emissions factors indexed by individual species i, δέλτα-xi (Cburn )i,j., MERET and consensus require more than twoemissions indicators. Our studies excluded samples where exogenous CO orCH4 might have been fed into a fire plume, mimicking emission.We sought to let the data on 13 gases and particulate properties suggest clustersof variables and plume types, using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF).While samples were mixtures, the NMF unmixing suggested purer burn types.Particulate properties (bscat, babs, SSA, AÅE) and gas-phase emissions were interrelated.Finally, we sought a simple categorization useful for modeling ozone productionin plumes. Two kinds of fires produced high ozone: those with large fuel nitrogenas evidenced by remnant CH3CN in the plumes, and also those from veryintense large burns. Fire types with optimal ratios of delta-NOydelta-HCHO associate with the highest additional ozone per unit Cburn, Perhaps theseplumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics. Perhaps these plumesexhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics.

plumes↗
NASA NTRS2016

Emissions Relationships Among Western Forest Fire Plumes: II. Plume Typing for Sources of Ozone and Aerosol Absorption

Previous studies of emission factors from biomass burning are prone to largeerrors since they ignore the interplay of mixing and varying pre-fire backgroundCO2 levels. Such complications severely affected our studies of 446 forest fireplume samples measured in the Western US by the science teams of NASAs SEAC4RS and ARCTAS airborne missions. Consequently we propose a MixedEffects Regression Emission Technique (MERET) to check techniques like theNormalized Emission Ratio Method (NERM), where use of sequentialobservations cannot disentangle emissions and mixing. We also evaluate asimpler consensus technique. All techniques relate emissions to fuel burnedusing Cburn Ctot added to the fire plume, where Ctot (CO2 + CO). Mixed-effectsregression can estimate pre-fire background values of Ctot (indexed byobservation j) simultaneously with emissions factors indexed by individualspecies i, xi (Cburn )i,j., MERET and consensus require more than twoemissions indicators. Our studies excluded samples where exogenous CO orCH4 might have been fed into a fire plume, mimicking emission.We sought to let the data on 13 gases and particulate properties suggest clustersof variables and plume types, using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF).While samples were mixtures, the NMF unmixing suggested purer burn types.Particulate properties (bscat, babs, SSA, AE) and gas-phase emissions were interrelated.Finally, we sought a simple categorization useful for modeling ozone productionin plumes. Two kinds of fires produced high ozone: those with large fuel nitrogenas evidenced by remnant CH3CN in the plumes, and also those from veryintense large burns. Fire types with optimal ratios of delta-NOydelta-HCHO associate with the highest additional ozone per unit Cburn, Perhaps theseplumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics. Perhaps these plumesexhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics.

ozone↗
NASA NTRS2018

Distinct Influences of Land Cover and Land Management on Seasonal Climate

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change is primarily represented in climate model simulations through prescribed transitions from natural vegetation to cropland or pasture. However, recent studies have demonstrated that land management practices, especially irrigation, have distinct climate impacts. Here we disentangle the seasonal climate impacts of land cover change and irrigation across areas of high agricultural intensity using climate simulations with three different land surface scenarios: (1) natural vegetation cover/no irrigation, (2) year 2000 crop cover/no irrigation, and (3) year 2000 crop cover and irrigation rates. We find that irrigation substantially amplifies land cover‐induced climate impacts but has opposing effects across certain regions. Irrigation mostly causes surface cooling, which substantially amplifies land cover change‐induced cooling in most regions except over Central, West, and South Asia, where it reverses land cover change‐induced warming. Despite increases in net surface radiation in some regions, this cooling is associated with enhancement of latent relative to sensible heat fluxes by irrigation. Similarly, irrigation substantially enhances the wetting influence of land cover change over several regions including West Asia and the Mediterranean. The most notable contrasting impacts of these forcings on precipitation occur over South Asia, where irrigation offsets the wetting influence of land cover during the monsoon season. Differential changes in regional circulations and moist static energy induced by these forcings contribute to their precipitation impacts and are associated with differential changes in surface and tropospheric temperature gradients and moisture availability. These results emphasize the importance of including irrigation forcing to evaluate the combined impacts of land surface changes for attributing historical climatic changes and managing future impacts.

Singh, Deepti↗
NASA NTRS2019

How Well Does NASA GEOS Model Perform in Simulating Dust Deposition into the Tropical Atlantic Ocean?

Massive dust emitted from North Africa can transport long distances across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, reaching the Americas. Dust deposition along the transit adds microorganisms and essential nutrients to marine ecosystem, which has important implications for biogeochemical cycle and climate. However, assessing the dust-ecosystemclimate interactions has been hindered in part by the paucity of dust deposition measurements and large uncertainties associated with oversimplified representations of dust processes in current models. We have recently produced a unique dataset of seasonal dust deposition flux and dust loss frequency into the tropical Atlantic Ocean at a nominal resolution of 200 km x 500 km by using the decade-long (2007-2016) record of aerosol three-dimensional distribution from four satellite sensors, namely CALIOP, MODIS, MISR, and IASI. On the basis of the ten-year average, the yearly dust deposition into the tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated at 98-153 Tg. The dust deposition shows large spatial and temporal (on seasonal and interannual scale) variability. The satellite observations also yield an estimate of annual mean dust loss frequency of 0.052 ~ 0.078 d-1, a useful diagnostic that makes it possible to disentangle the dust transport and removal processes from the dust emissions when identifying the major factors contributing to the uncertainties and biases in the model simulated dust deposition. In this study, we use the dataset along with in situ and remote sensing observations to assess how well NASA GEOS model performs in simulating trans-Atlantic dust transport and deposition. We found that the GEOS modeling of dust deposition falls within the range of satellite-based estimates. However, this reasonable agreement in dust deposition is a compensation of the model's underestimate of dust emissions and overestimate of dust removal efficiency. Further, the overestimate of dust removal efficiency results largely from the model's overestimate of rainfall rate. Our results provide insights into the model's deficiencies at process level, which could better guide model improvements.

Yu, Hongbin↗
NASA NTRS2019

Spatially Resolved Outflows in a Seyfert Galaxy at z=2.39

We present the first spatially resolved analysis of rest-frame optical and UV (UltraViolet) imaging and spectroscopy for a lensed galaxy at z equals 2.39 hosting a Seyfert active galactic nucleus (AGN). Proximity to a natural guide star has enabled observations with high signal-to-noise ratio using Very Large Telescope SINFONI (Spectrograph for INtegral Field Observations in the Near Infrared) plus adaptive optics (AO) of rest-frame optical diagnostic emission lines, which exhibit an underlying broad component with full width at half maximum approximately 700 kilometers per second in both the Balmer and forbidden lines. Measured line ratios place the outflow robustly in the region of the ionization diagnostic diagrams associated with AGNs. This unique opportunity - combining gravitational lensing, AO guiding, redshift, and AGN activity - allows for a magnified view of two main tracers of the physical conditions and structure of the interstellar medium in a star-forming galaxy hosting a weak AGN at Cosmic Noon. By analyzing the spatial extent and morphology of the Lyman alpha spectral line and dust-corrected Hydrogen spectral line emission, disentangling the effects of star formation and AGN ionization on each tracer, and comparing the AGN-induced mass outflow rate to the host star formation rate, we find that the AGN does not significantly impact the star formation within its host galaxy.

Fischer, Travis C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Revealing the Multiscale Nature of Turbulence in Space Plasmas with an Innovative Swarm of Spacecraft

Abstract: Turbulence is fundamentally a multiscale phenomena, with energy, mass, and momentum being transported across both spatial and temporal scales. In a magnetized collisionless plasma, there are unresolved questions about the structure of the turbulent transfer of energy, as well as how the energy is extracted from the cascade and dissipated as heat in the constituent charged particles. The plasma in the solar wind acts as an accessible natural laboratory to study these processes, and much progress has indeed been made since the dawn of the space age in understanding turbulence via in situ observations of turbulent plasmas near Earth. However, to date, these observations have been limited to a single, or at best, a tight cluster of points, leading to ambiguities in at what scales energy is contained, how it is transported, and by what mechanism it is dissipated. In this presentation, we describe a heliophysics mission concept aimed at understanding turbulence that is enabled by a swarm of small satellites. The proposed "HelioSwarm" mission will measure turbulent fields and flows and charged particles simultaneously at many points spanning size and time scales from the fluid to sub-ion regime. In doing so, we will be able to disentangle how the turbulence depends on time and space, directly observe the change in internal energy in the plasma, and definitively capture the dynamic relation between turbulence and structures. While the processes under examination are universal, arising throughout our solar system and universe, they are difficult to reproduce in either terrestrial laboratories or numerical simulations, meaning that the only a multipoint observatory in the near-Earth heliosphere will be able to study them in sufficient detail to discern the underlying physics. In this talk, we highlight the enabling role that small satellites play in providing closure on these long-standing but critically important science questions.

Spence, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Principal Component Analysis of Up-The-Ramp Sampled Infrared Array Data

We describe the results of principal component analysis (PCA) of up-the-ramp sampled infrared (IR) array data from the Hubble Space Telescope wide field camera 3 (WFC3 IR), James Webb Space Telescope NIRSpec, and prototype Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope’s wide field instrument detectors. These systems use, respectively, Teledyne H1R, H2RG, and H4RG-10 near-IR detector arrays with a variety of IR array controllers. The PCA shows that the Legendre polynomials approximate the principal components of these systems (i.e., they roughly diagonalize the covariance matrix). In contrast to the monomial basis that is widely used for polynomial fitting and linearization today, the Legendre polynomials are an orthonormal basis. They provide a quantifiable, compact, and (nearly) linearly uncorrelated representation of the information content of the data. By fitting a few Legendre polynomials, nearly all of the meaningful information in representative WFC3 astronomical datacubes can be condensed from 15 up-the-ramp samples down to 6 compressible Legendre coefficients per pixel. The higher order coefficients contain time domain information that is lost when one projects up-the-ramp sampled datacubes onto two-dimensional images by fitting a straight line, even if the data are linearized before fitting the line. Going forward, we believe that this time domain information is potentially important for disentangling the various nonlinearities that can affect IR array observations, i.e., inherent pixel nonlinearity, persistence, burn in, brighter-fatter effect, (potentially) nonlinear interpixel capacitance, and perhaps others.

Rauscher, Bernard J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Untangling causality in midlatitude aerosol–cloud adjustments

Aerosol–cloud interactions represent the leading uncertainty in our ability to infer climate sensitivity from the observational record. The forcing from changes in cloud albedo driven by increases in cloud droplet number (Nd) (the first indirect effect) is confidently negative and has narrowed its probable range in the last decade, but the sign and strength of forcing associated with changes in cloud macrophysics in response to aerosol (aerosol–cloud adjustments) remain uncertain. This uncertainty reflects our inability to accurately quantify variability not associated with a causal link flowing from the cloud microphysical state to the cloud macrophysical state. Once variability associated with meteorology has been removed, covariance between the liquid water path (LWP) averaged across cloudy and clear regions (here characterizing the macrophysical state) and Nd (characterizing the microphysical) is the sum of two causal pathways linking Nd to LWP: Nd altering LWP (adjustments) and precipitation scavenging aerosol and thus depleting Nd. Only the former term is relevant to constraining adjustments, but disentangling these terms in observations is challenging. We hypothesize that the diversity of constraints on aerosol–cloud adjustments in the literature may be partly due to not explicitly characterizing covariance flowing from cloud to aerosol and aerosol to cloud. Here, we restrict our analysis to the regime of extratropical clouds outside of low-pressure centers associated with cyclonic activity. Observations from MAC-LWP (Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path) and MODIS are compared to simulations in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) GA7.1 (the atmosphere model of HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1). The meteorological predictors of LWP are found to be similar between the model and observations. There is also agreement with previous literature on cloud-controlling factors finding that increasing stability, moisture, and sensible heat flux enhance LWP, while increasing subsidence and sea surface temperature decrease it. A simulation where cloud microphysics are insensitive to changes in Nd is used to characterize covariance between Nd and LWP that is induced by factors other than aerosol–cloud adjustments. By removing variability associated with meteorology and scavenging, we infer the sensitivity of LWP to changes in Nd. Application of this technique to UM GA7.1 simulations reproduces the true model adjustment strength. Observational constraints developed using simulated covariability not induced by adjustments and observed covariability between Nd and LWP predict a 25 %–30 % overestimate by the UM GA7.1 in LWP change and a 30 %–35 % overestimate in associated radiative forcing.

Daniel T. McCoy↗
NASA NTRS2020

X-ray Spectra of the Fe-L Complex II: Atomic Data Constraints from the EBIT Experiment and X-Ray Grating Observations of Capella

The Hitomi results for the Perseus cluster have shown that accurate atomic models are essential to the success of X-ray spectroscopic missions and just as important as the store of knowledge on instrumental calibration and astrophysical modeling. Preparing the models requires a multifaceted approach, including theoretical calculations, laboratory measurements, and calibration using real observations. In a previous paper, we presented a calculation of the electron impact cross sections on the transitions forming the Fe-L complex. In the present work, we systematically tested the calculation against cross-sections of ions measured in an electron beam ion trap experiment. A two-dimensional analysis in the electron beam energies and X-ray photon energies was utilized to disentangle radiative channels following dielectronic recombination, direct electron-impact excitation, and resonant excitation processes in the experimental data. The data calibrated through laboratory measurements were further fed into a global modeling of the Chandra grating spectrum of Capella. We investigated and compared the fit quality, as well as the sensitivity of the derived physical parameters to the underlying atomic data and the astrophysical plasma modeling. We further list the potential areas of disagreement between the observations and the present calculations, which, in turn, calls for renewed efforts with regard to theoretical calculations and targeted laboratory measurements.

Liyi Gu↗
NASA NTRS1996

Getting Astrophysical Information from LISA Data

The gravitational wave signals from a large number of astrophysical sources will be present in the LISA data. Information about as many sources as possible must be estimated from time series of strain measurements...Here we describe a candidate process for disentangling the gravitational wave signals and estimating the relevant astrophysical parameters from one year of LISA data. Nearly all of the sources will be identified by searching with templates based on source parameters and directions.

LISA↗
NASA NTRS2020

Biophysical Impacts of Earth Greening Largely Controlled by Aerodynamic Resistance

Satellite observations show widespread increasing trends of leaf area index (LAI), known as the Earth greening. However, the biophysical impacts of this greening on land surface temperature (LST) remain unclear. Here, we quantify the biophysical impacts of Earth greening on LST from 2000 to 2014 and disentangle the contributions of different factors using a physically based attribution model. We find that 93% of the global vegetated area shows negative sensitivity of LST to LAI increase at the annual scale, especially for semiarid woody vegetation. Further considering the LAI trends (P ≤ 0.1), 30% of the global vegetated area is cooled by these trends and 5% is warmed. Aerodynamic resistance is the dominant factor in controlling Earth greening’s biophysical impacts: The increase in LAI produces a decrease in aerodynamic resistance, thereby favoring increased turbulent heat transfer between the land and the atmosphere, especially latent heat flux.

Greening↗
NASA NTRS2021

Target Prioritization and Observing Strategies for the NEID Earth Twin Survey

NEID is a high-resolution optical spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5 m telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory and will soon join the new generation of extreme precision radial velocity instruments in operation around the world. We plan to use the instrument to conduct the NEID Earth Twin Survey (NETS) over the course of the next 5 years, collecting hundreds of observations of some of the nearest and brightest stars in an effort to probe the regime of Earth-mass exoplanets. Even if we take advantage of the extreme instrumental precision conferred by NEID, it will be difficult to disentangle the weak (~10 cm/s) signals induced by such low-mass, long-period exoplanets from stellar noise for all but the quietest host stars. In this work, we present a set of quantitative selection metrics which we use to identify an initial NETS target list consisting of stars conducive to the detection of exoplanets in the regime of interest. We also outline a set of observing strategies with which we aim to mitigate uncertainty contributions from intrinsic stellar variability and other sources of noise.

Arvind F. Gupta↗