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At least 649 records · Page 36

Mars Atmospheric Chemistry Simulations with the GEM-Mars General Circulation Model

General Circulation Models with interactive physical and chemistry processes are the state-of-the-art tools for an integrated view and understanding of the Martian atmosphere and climate system. The GEM-Mars model currently includes 16 tracers for chemical composition and applies a fully online, interactive calculation of the photo- and gas phase chemistry of carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O). These species largely control the chemical composition of the neutral Mars atmosphere through their photolysis products and their subsequent interactions. Water vapor undergoes a complex cycle on Mars as it is transported and interacts with ice reservoirs both at the planet's surface and at water ice clouds, which in turn provide radiative feedbacks. In the photochemical cycles involving CO2 and H2O, the abundances of 5 species have been reported by previous investigations with significant spatio-temporal coverage: CO2, H2O, CO, O3 and H2O2. This paper presents the current status of the atmospheric chemistry simulations in GEM-Mars by comparing them to a selection of these observational datasets as well as to oxygen dayglow emission from O2(a1∆g). The results are consistent with previous model-data comparisons and illustrate that the water cycle and the photochemistry are well implemented in the model. In particular, the simulation of the key reservoir species H2O2 provides a good match to the available data. Model-data biases for ozone columns and oxygen airglow are related to the simulated water vapor vertical profile, as these species have important column contributions from vertical layers at the top of the hygropause.

F Daerden↗

Assessment of the Contribution of the Atmosphere to Uncertainties in Normalized Water-Leaving Radiance: A Combined Modeling and Data Analysis Approach

Our research for the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) program has been focused on modeling and simulation studies as well as the development of atmospheric correction algorithms. Based on our original proposal and discussions at the SIMBIOS team meetings and workshops, the objectives of our research can be summarized as follows: (1) Use our radiative transfer model for the coupled atmosphere-ocean system to simulate the radiation field at arbitrary levels and in any desired direction in the atmosphere and ocean so as to provide a firm connection between the signal received by the satellite sensor and by a sensor looking down into the water column just above the surface and just below it; (2) Use the simulations to quantify the influence of atmospheric aerosols on the water-leaving radiance, and to quantify the error in the water-leaving radiance as a function of uncertainties in the aerosol optical properties, mass loading and vertical extent; (3) Use the model simulations in conjunction with validation measurements taken by other SIMBIOS investigators (for satellite overpasses) to assess our understanding of the radiative transfer process in the coupled atmosphere-ocean column, and to examine the extent to which the model provides a realistic prediction of simultaneously measured in situ water-leaving radiance and the radiance received by the satellite sensor; (4) Modify and improve an existing atmospheric correction algorithm, based on the work above, as needed by constructing new look-up tables that include scattering by ocean particles; and (5) Carry out approaches to developing an atmospheric correction algorithm for ocean color imagery with strongly absorbing aerosols.

Stamnes, Knut↗

Modeling Reference Cell Performance Using Measured and Modeled Spectral Data

The performance of several silicon-based reference cells is examined under clear skies on a horizontal and two-axis tracking surface during the winter of 2022. The ratio of the calculated reference cell output to the measured reference cell output is examined. For each reference cell, when using the measured spectral data, the ratio of the estimated to measured output varies by less than +/-0.6% at the P95 level. The analysis was also done using modeled spectral values obtained from the Bird spectrl2 model. The ratio between the estimated reference cell output using the modeled spectral values to the measured reference cell output varies by +/-1.1% at the P95 level.

angle of incidence↗

Model-Based Data Integration and Process Standardization Techniques for Fault Management: A Feasibility Study

This paper describes the theory and considerations in the application of model-based techniques to assimilate information from disjoint knowledge sources for performing NASA's Fault Management (FM)-related activities using the TEAMS® toolset. FM consists of the operational mitigation of existing and impending spacecraft failures. NASA's FM directives have both design-phase and operational-phase goals. This paper highlights recent studies by QSI and DST of the capabilities required in the TEAMS® toolset for conducting FM activities with the aim of reducing operating costs, increasing autonomy, and conforming to time schedules. These studies use and extend the analytic capabilities of QSI's TEAMS® toolset to conduct a range of FM activities within a centralized platform.

Haste, Deepak↗

Calibration, Data Acquisition, and Post Analysis of Turbulent Fluid Flow in a Calibration Jet Using Hot-wire Anemometry

The Turbine Branch concentrates on the following areas: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), and implementing experimental procedures to obtain physical modeling data. Hot-wire Anemometry is a valuable tool for obtaining physical modeling data. Hot-wire Anemometry is likely to remain the principal research tool for most turbulent air/gas flow studies. The Hot-wire anemometer consists of a fine wire heated by electric current. When placed in a fluid stream, the hot-wire loses heat to the fluid by forced convection. In forced convection, energy transfer is due to molecular motion imposed by an extraneous force moving fluid parcels. When the hot-wire is in "equilibrium", the rate of heat input to the wire is equal to the rate of heat loss at the wire ends. The equality between heat input and heat loss is the basis for King s equation, which relates the electrical parameters of the hot-wire to the flow parameters of the fluid. Hot-wire anemometry is based on convective heat transfer from a heated wire element placed in a fluid flow. Any change in the fluid flow condition that affects the heat transfer from the heated element will be detected virtually instantaneously by a constant-temperature Hot-wire anemometry system. The system implemented for this research is the IFA 300. The system is a fully-integrated, thermal anemometer-based system that measures mean and fluctuating velocity components in air, water, and other fluids. It also measures turbulence and makes localized temperature measurements. A constant-temperature anemometer is a bridge and amplifier circuit that controls a tiny wire at constant temperature. As a fluid flow passes over the heated sensor, the amplifier senses the bridge off-balance and adjusts the voltage to the top of the bridge, keeping the bridge in balance. The voltage on top of the bridge can then be related to the velocity of the flow. The bridge voltage is sensitive to temperature as well as velocity and so the built-in thermocouple circuit can be attached to a thermocouple that can measure the fluid temperature. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Moreno, Michelle↗

L-Band Microwave Satellite Data and Model Simulations Over the Dry Chaco to Estimate Soil Moisture, Soil Temperature, Vegetation and Soil Salinity

The Dry Chaco in South America is a semi-arid ecoregion prone to dryland salinization. In this region, we investigated coarse-scale surface soil moisture (SM), soil temperature, soil salinity and vegetation, using L-band microwave brightness temperature (TB) observations and retrievals from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite missions, Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) simulations, and in situ measurements within 26 sampled satellite pixels. Across these 26 sampled pixels, the satellite-based SM outperformed CLSM SM compared to field data, and forward L-band TB simulations derived from in situ SM and temperature performed better than those derived from CLSM estimates relative to SMOS TB observations. The surface salinity for the sampled pixels was on average only 4 mg/g and only locally influenced the TB simulations, when including salinity in the dielectric mixing model of the forward radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations. To explore the potential of retrieving salinity together with other RTM parameters to optimize TB simulations over the entire Dry Chaco, the RTM was inverted using 10 years of multi-angular SMOS TB data and constraints of CLSM SM and temperature. However, the latter modeled SM was not sufficiently accurate and factors such as open surface water were missing in the background constraints, so that the salinity retrievals effectively represented a bulk correction of the dielectric constant, rather than salinity per se. However, the retrieval of vegetation, scattering albedo and surface roughness resulted in realistic values.

L-Band↗

IMoFi - Intelligent Model Fidelity: Physics-Based Data-Driven Grid Modeling to Accelerate Accurate PV Integration (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under a project funded by U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) to use grid edge measurements to calibrate distribution system models for improved planning and grid integration of solar PV. Several physics-based data-driven algorithms are developed to identify inaccuracies in models and to bring increased visibility into distribution system planning. This includes phase identification, secondary system topology and parameter estimation, meter-to-transformer pairing, medium-voltage reconfiguration detection, determination of regulator and capacitor settings, PV system detection, PV parameter and setting estimation, PV dynamic models, and improved load modeling. Each of the algorithms is tested using simulation data and demonstrated on real feeders with our utility partners. The final algorithms demonstrate the potential for future planning and operations of the electric power grid to be more automated and data-driven, with more granularity, higher accuracy, and more comprehensive visibility into the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

IMoFi (Intelligent Model Fidelity): Physics-Based Data-Driven Grid Modeling to Accelerate Accurate PV Integration Updated Accomplishments

This report summarizes the work performed under a project funded by U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO), including some updates from the previous report SAND2022-0215, to use grid edge measurements to calibrate distribution system models for improved planning and grid integration of solar PV. Several physics-based data-driven algorithms are developed to identify inaccuracies in models and to bring increased visibility into distribution system planning. This includes phase identification, secondary system topology and parameter estimation, meter-to-transformer pairing, medium-voltage reconfiguration detection, determination of regulator and capacitor settings, PV system detection, PV parameter and setting estimation, PV dynamic models, and improved load modeling. Each of the algorithms is tested using simulation data and demonstrated on real feeders with our utility partners. The final algorithms demonstrate the potential for future planning and operations of the electric power grid to be more automated and data-driven, with more granularity, higher accuracy, and more comprehensive visibility into the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED): Documentation of Versions 2.1, 2.2 and 2.4: Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation - Volume 38

Biomass burning is an important source of particulates and trace gases and a major element of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Well constrained emissions from vegetation fires are needed to model direct and indirect effects of biomass burning aerosols, to model homogeneous and heterogeneous chemistry in the atmosphere, and to perform credible Earth system analysis, and climate and air pollution studies. To improve the performance of NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) in the areas of atmospheric constituent modeling with a focus on biomass burning we developed the Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED). The QFED emissions are based on the fire radiative power (top-down) approach and draw on the cloud correction method developed in the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). Location and fire radiative power of fires are obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Level 2 fire products (MOD14 and MYD14) and the MODIS Geolocation products (MOD03 and MYD03). QFED strengths are high spatial and temporal resolutions and near-real time availability. Daily mean emissions are available at 0.3125 times 0.25 degrees and in recent versions also at 0.1 times 0.1 degrees. QFED provides emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, PM2.5, ammonia, nitrogen oxides, methyl ethyl ketone, propylene, ethane, propane, n- and i-butane, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, acetone and methane. Two QFED product systems are maintained by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO): one that produces near real-time daily emissions used operationally in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System, and one that produces an extended historical dataset with daily emissions from March 2000 to the present. The historical dataset also provides monthly mean and monthly climatological emissions.

Koster, Randal D.↗

Constraining long‐term model predictions for woody growth using tropical tree rings

The strength and persistence of the tropical carbon sink hinges on the long-term responses of woody growth to climatic variations and increasing CO 2 . However, the sensitivity of tropical woody growth to these environmental changes is poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in growth predictions. Here, we used tree ring records from a Southeast Asian tropical forest to constrain ED2.2-hydro, a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit vegetation demography. Specifically, we assessed individual-level woody growth responses to historical climate variability and increases in atmospheric CO 2 (C a ). When forced with historical C a , ED2.2-hydro reproduced the magnitude of increases in intercellular CO 2 concentration (a major determinant of photosynthesis) estimated from tree ring carbon isotope records. In contrast, simulated growth trends were considerably larger than those obtained from tree rings, suggesting that woody biomass production efficiency (WBPE = woody biomass production:gross primary productivity) was overestimated by the model. The estimated WBPE decline under increasing C a based on model-data discrepancy was comparable to or stronger than (depending on tree species and size) the observed WBPE changes from a multi-year mature-forest CO 2 fertilization experiment. In addition, we found that ED2.2-hydro generally overestimated climatic sensitivity of woody growth, especially for late-successional plant functional types. The model-data discrepancy in growth sensitivity to climate was likely caused by underestimating WBPE in hot and dry years due to commonly used model assumptions on carbon use efficiency and allocation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to constrain model predictions of individual tree-level growth sensitivity to C a and climate against tropical tree-ring data. Our results suggest that improving model processes related to WBPE is crucial to obtain better predictions of tropical forest responses to droughts and increasing C a . Finally, more accurate parameterization of WBPE will likely reduce the stimulation of woody growth by C a rise predicted by biosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-driven modeling and control of an X-ray bimorph adaptive mirror

Adaptive X-ray mirrors are being adopted on high-coherent-flux synchrotron and X-ray free-electron laser beamlines where dynamic phase control and aberration compensation are necessary to preserve wavefront quality from source to sample, yet challenging to achieve. Additional difficulties arise from the inability to continuously probe the wavefront in this context, which demands methods of control that require little to no feedback. In this work, a data-driven approach to the control of adaptive X-ray optics with piezo-bimorph actuators is demonstrated. This approach approximates the non-linear system dynamics with a discrete-time model using random mirror shapes and interferometric measurements as training data. For mirrors of this type, prior states and voltage inputs affect the shape-change trajectory, and therefore must be included in the model. Without the need for assumed physical models of the mirror's behavior, the generality of the neural network structure accommodates drift, creep and hysteresis, and enables a control algorithm that achieves shape control and stability below 2 nm RMS. Using a prototype mirror and ex situ metrology, it is shown that the accuracy of our trained model enables open-loop shape control across a diverse set of states and that the control algorithm achieves shape error magnitudes that fall within diffraction-limited performance.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Solar maximum mission fine pointing sun sensor dawn and dusk errors flight data and model analysis

SMM flight system control errors occurring at spacecraft dawn and dusk are analyzed. The errors are associated with the fine pointing sun sensor (FPSS), which is a primary component of the SMM attitude control system. It is shown that the source of the FPSS dawn/dusk distortion is the incomplete masking of sunlight reflected off the earth by the optical baffle covering the FPSS sensor heads onboard the SMM during periods of orbit dawn and dusk. For the most part, the modeled behavior of the FPSS under dawn and dusk lighting conditions matches the observed behavior in the SMM flight data.

Kulp, D. R.↗

Improved Muon Energy Estimation Using a Detailed Model of Multiple Coulomb Scattering in the MicroBooNE LArTPC

We present an improved technique for estimating a muon's energy by measuring the deflections along its path inside the MicroBooNE detector from multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS). This approach implements several innovations that better capture detector non-idealizations compared to previous MCS-based muon energy estimators. As a result, it achieves improved resolution, reduced bias, and better data-model agreement. Using model simulation, for fully contained events the estimated bias is within 1\% and the estimated resolution narrows from 10\% to 4.3\% as muon energy increases from 0.1\,GeV to 2\,GeV. For events with particles exiting the detector volume, at least a meter of reconstructed muon track, and a muon energy below 2\,GeV, the estimated bias is less than 2\% and the estimated resolution varies from 7\% to 17\% over muon energy. These demonstrate significant improvements over the performance of previous work using an MCS-based energy estimator at MicroBooNE~\cite{mcs_2017}, which exhibited approximately twice worse resolution and a bias of 20\% over the same energy region. Data-model goodness-of-fit studies are used to validate the estimator's performance on data, showing good agreement within model uncertainties.

Cooper-Troendle, London [U. Pittsburgh (main); Fer↗

Forecasting Solar Photovoltaic Power Production: A Comprehensive Review and Innovative Data-Driven Modeling Framework

The intermittent and stochastic nature of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) necessitates accurate power production prediction for effective scheduling and grid management. This paper presents a comprehensive review conducted with reference to a pioneering, comprehensive, and data-driven framework proposed for solar Photovoltaic (PV) power generation prediction. The systematic and integrating framework comprises three main phases carried out by seven main comprehensive modules for addressing numerous practical difficulties of the prediction task: phase I handles the aspects related to data acquisition (module 1) and manipulation (module 2) in preparation for the development of the prediction scheme; phase II tackles the aspects associated with the development of the prediction model (module 3) and the assessment of its accuracy (module 4), including the quantification of the uncertainty (module 5); and phase III evolves towards enhancing the prediction accuracy by incorporating aspects of context change detection (module 6) and incremental learning when new data become available (module 7). This framework adeptly addresses all facets of solar PV power production prediction, bridging existing gaps and offering a comprehensive solution to inherent challenges. By seamlessly integrating these elements, our approach stands as a robust and versatile tool for enhancing the precision of solar PV power prediction in real-world applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Use of satellite data and modeling to assess the influence of stratospheric processes on the troposphere

Current research focused on the examination of the effects of ozone heating and Newtonian cooling on the linear stability of transient planetary waves. A finite difference numerical model was developed in which the basic state wind, temperature, and ozone distributions were constructed using ground-based and satellite data. Preliminary results indicate that ozone dynamics interaction may play a more important role in the stability and maintenance of planetary waves than previously thought, particularly in summer when the mean solar zenith angle is smallest and thus ozone heating largest. Examination of the finite amplitude interactions among radiation, ozone, and dynamics was carried out. Self-consistent, coupled equations governing the weakly nonlinear interactions are currently being analyzed to provide a better understanding of wave-mean flow interactions and ozone transport in a continuously stratified model of the troposphere-stratosphere coupled system.

Nathan, Terrence↗

Application of machine learning to characterize gas hydrate reservoirs in Mackenzie Delta (Canada) and on the Alaska north slope (USA)

Here, artificial neural network-trained models were used to predict gas hydrate saturation distributions in permafrost-associated deposits in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend on the Alaska North Slope (ANS), USA and at the Mallik research site in the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada. The database of Logging-While-Drilling (LWD) and wireline logs collected at five wells (Mount Elbert, Ignik Sikumi, and Kuparuk 7–11–12 wells at ANS, plus 2L-38 and 5L-38 wells at the Mallik research site) includes more than 10,000 depth points, which were used for training, validation, and testing the machine learning (ML) models. Data used in training the ML models include the well logs of density, porosity, electrical resistivity, gamma radiation, and acoustic wave velocity measurements. Combinations of two or three out of these five well logs were found to reliably predict the gas hydrate saturation with accuracy varying between 80 and 90% when compared to the gas hydrate saturations derived from Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)-based technique. The ML models trained on data from three ANS wells achieved high fidelity predictions of gas hydrate saturation at the Mallik site. The results obtained in this study indicate that ML models trained on data from one geological basin can successfully predict key reservoir parameters for permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations within another basin. A generalized approach for selecting a well log combination that can improve model accuracy is discussed. Overall, the study outcome supports earlier work demonstrating that ML models trained on non-NMR well logs are a viable alternative to physics-driven methods for predicting gas hydrate saturations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗