NASA NTRS2000
Recent studies using meterological station data have indicated that global surface air temperature has been increasing at a rate of 0.05 K/decade. Using the same set of data but for stations in the Antarctic and Arctic regions (>50 N) only, the increases in temperature were 0.08, and 0.22 K/decade, when record lengths of 100 and 50 years, respectively, were used. To gain insights into the increasing rate of warming, satellite infrared and passive microwave observations over the Arctic region during the last 20 years were processed and analyzed. The results show that during this period, the ice extent in the Antarctic has been increasing at the rate of 1.2% per decade while the surface temperature has been decreasing at about 0.08 K per decade. Conversely, in the Northern Hemisphere, the ice extent has been decreasing at a rate of 2.8% per decade, while the surface temperatures have been increasing at the rate of 0.38 K per decade. In the Antarctic, it is surprising that there is a short term trend of cooling during a global period of warming. Very large anomalies in open water areas in the Arctic were observed especially in the western region, that includes the Beaufort Sea, where the observed open water area was about 1x10(exp 6) sq km, about twice the average for the region, during the summer of 1998. In the eastern region, that includes the Laptev Sea, the area of open water was also abnormally large in the summer of 1995. Note that globally, the warmest and second warmest years in this century, were 1998 and 1995, respectively. The data, however, show large spatial variability with the open water area distribution showing a cyclic periodicity of about ten years, which is akin to the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations. This was observed in both western and eastern regions but with the phase of one lagging the other by about two years. This makes it difficult to interpret what the trends really mean. But although the record length of satellite data is still relatively short and the climate trend difficult to establish, the immediate impact of a continued warming trend may be very profound.