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DOE OSTI2025

What regulates decomposition in agroecosystems? Insights from reading the tea leaves

Litter decomposition is a critical Earth process, recycling nutrients and setting a portion of plant tissue on a path toward soil organic matter. Despite this importance, we still lack a good understanding of local factors that regulate decomposition, especially in agroecosystems where management plays an outsized role. Using a narrow range of climate and soils, we buried 1,308 pre-manufactured “litter bags” of differing residue quality (i.e., green and rooibos tea leaves) in 109 plots across several management practices to (1) explore the local controls on decomposition in agroecosystems and (2) test the robustness of the Tea Bag Index (TBI). We found that management practices intended to increase soil ecosystem services, that is, soil health, altered the decomposition of both teas. For example, adding nitrogen fertilizer and implementing perennial cropping decreased the extent of green tea decomposition (carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, or C:N = 12.8). No-tillage increased, but perennial cropping decreased, the rate of rooibos tea decomposition (C:N = 50.1). Cropped prairie accelerated green tea decomposition and increased the extent of red tea decomposition. A random forest regression model showed that soil temperature was the strongest predictor of green tea decomposition, but a soil health score also played a significant role in predicting the mass remaining. Soil texture and nutrient availability best predicted rooibos tea decomposition. Finer textured soils seemed to decelerate rooibos decomposition but increased the extent of decomposition. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the TBI metrics correlated somewhat well with empirically derived decomposition constants and were similarly sensitive to the effects of management. Still, the green tea stabilization factor had a substantial prediction bias. Our study increased our basic understanding of what regulates decomposition in agroecosystems. It also showed that the TBI can be a scientifically rigorous citizen science approach to monitoring changes in soil health.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Contribution of ECa and NDVI in the Delineation of Management Zones in a Vineyard

Precision fertilization implies the need to identify the variability of soil fertility, which is costly and time-consuming. Remotely measured data can be a solution. Using this strategy, a study was conducted, in a vineyard, to delineate different management zones using two indicators: apparent soil electrical conductivity (ECa) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). To understand the contribution of each indicator, three scenarios were used for zone definition: (1) using only NDVI, (2) only ECa, or (3) using a combination of the two. Then the differences in soil fertility between these zones were assessed using simple statistical methods. The results indicate that the most beneficial strategy is the combined use of the two indicators, as it allowed the definition of three distinct zones regarding important soil variables and crop nutrients, such as soil total nitrogen, Mg2+ cation, exchange acidity, and effective cation exchange capacity, and some relevant cation ratios. This strategy also allowed the identification of an ionic unbalance in the soil chemistry, due to an excess of Mg2+, that was harming crop health, as reported by NDVI. This also impacted ECa and NDVI relationship, which was negative in this study. Overall, the results demonstrate the advantages of using remotely sensed data, mainly more than one type of sensing data, and suggest a high potential for differential crop fertilization and soil management in the study area.

Esteves, Catarina (ORCID:0000000327205906)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Transcriptome Analysis of Drought-Resistant and Drought-Sensitive Sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ) Genotypes in Response to PEG-Induced Drought Stress

Drought is a major limiting factor of crop yields. In response to drought, plants reprogram their gene expression, which ultimately regulates a multitude of biochemical and physiological processes. The timing of this reprogramming and the nature of the drought-regulated genes in different genotypes are thought to confer differential tolerance to drought stress. Sorghum is a highly drought-tolerant crop and has been increasingly used as a model cereal to identify genes that confer tolerance. Also, there is considerable natural variation in resistance to drought in different sorghum genotypes. Here, we evaluated drought resistance in four genotypes to polyethylene glycol (PEG)-induced drought stress at the seedling stage and performed transcriptome analysis in seedlings of sorghum genotypes that are either drought-resistant or drought-sensitive to identify drought-regulated changes in gene expression that are unique to drought-resistant genotypes of sorghum. Our analysis revealed that about 180 genes are differentially regulated in response to drought stress only in drought-resistant genotypes and most of these (over 70%) are up-regulated in response to drought. Among these, about 70 genes are novel with no known function and the remaining are transcription factors, signaling and stress-related proteins implicated in drought tolerance in other crops. This study revealed a set of drought-regulated genes, including many genes encoding uncharacterized proteins that are associated with drought tolerance at the seedling stage.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quinoa Phenotyping Methodologies: An International Consensus

Quinoa is a crop originating in the Andes but grown more widely and with the genetic potential for significant further expansion. Due to the phenotypic plasticity of quinoa, varieties need to be assessed across years and multiple locations. To improve comparability among field trials across the globe and to facilitate collaborations, components of the trials need to be kept consistent, including the type and methods of data collected. Here, an internationally open-access framework for phenotyping a wide range of quinoa features is proposed to facilitate the systematic agronomic, physiological and genetic characterization of quinoa for crop adaptation and improvement. Mature plant phenotyping is a central aspect of this paper, including detailed descriptions and the provision of phenotyping cards to facilitate consistency in data collection. High-throughput methods for multi-temporal phenotyping based on remote sensing technologies are described. Tools for higher-throughput post-harvest phenotyping of seeds are presented. A guideline for approaching quinoa field trials including the collection of environmental data and designing layouts with statistical robustness is suggested. To move towards developing resources for quinoa in line with major cereal crops, a database was created. The Quinoa Germinate Platform will serve as a central repository of data for quinoa researchers globally.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implementing Spatio-Temporal 3D-Convolution Neural Networks and UAV Time Series Imagery to Better Predict Lodging Damage in Sorghum

Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based remote sensing is gaining momentum in a variety of agricultural and environmental applications. Very-high-resolution remote sensing image sets collected repeatedly throughout a crop growing season are becoming increasingly common. Analytical methods able to learn from both spatial and time dimensions of the data may allow for an improved estimation of crop traits, as well as the effects of genetics and the environment on these traits. Multispectral and geometric time series imagery was collected by UAV on 11 dates, along with ground-truth data, in a field trial of 866 genetically diverse biomass sorghum accessions. We compared the performance of Convolution Neural Network (CNN) architectures that used image data from single dates (two spatial dimensions, 2D) versus multiple dates (two spatial dimensions + temporal dimension, 3D) to estimate lodging detection and severity. Lodging was detected with 3D-CNN analysis of time series imagery with 0.88 accuracy, 0.92 Precision, and 0.83 Recall. This outperformed the best 2D-CNN on a single date with 0.85 accuracy, 0.84 Precision, and 0.76 Recall. The variation in lodging severity was estimated by the best 3D-CNN analysis with 9.4% mean absolute error (MAE), 11.9% root mean square error (RMSE), and goodness-of-fit (R2) of 0.76. This was a significant improvement over the best 2D-CNN analysis with 11.84% MAE, 14.91% RMSE, and 0.63 R2. The success of the improved 3D-CNN analysis approach depended on the inclusion of “before and after” data, i.e., images collected on dates before and after the lodging event. The integration of geometric and spectral features with 3D-CNN architecture was also key to the improved assessment of lodging severity, which is an important and difficult-to-assess phenomenon in bioenergy feedstocks such as biomass sorghum. This demonstrates that spatio-temporal CNN architectures based on UAV time series imagery have significant potential to enhance plant phenotyping capabilities in crop breeding and Precision agriculture applications.

3D-convolution neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2023

Designing Iowa Agricultural Landscapes to Improve Environmental Co-Benefits of Bioenergy Production

Cellulosic bioenergy feedstocks are needed to improve carbon (C) management while provisioning biomass for bioproducts and biofuel. The transition to increased cellulosic biomass production can be guided by land management plans designed to improve economic, environmental, and ecological performance. We constructed a sustainability model to compare landscape designs for biofuel production from corn (Zea mays L.) stover and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) in central Iowa, USA. We used the model to compare environmental and socioeconomic outcomes associated with four landscape management strategies, with and without cellulosic biomass markets. We evaluated (1) a fuelshed area containing over 1.2 million ha (3 million acres) of corn and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) within 80 km (50 miles) of a commercial-scale cellulosic biorefinery in Nevada, Iowa, and (2) the South Fork watershed containing over 72,000 ha (178,000 acres) of these row crops within eight north central Iowa HUC-12 (hydrologic unit code) watersheds. At both landscape scales, we found that it is possible to achieve multiple environmental and socioeconomic benefits concomitantly with cellulosic biomass production by strategically collecting corn stover and converting the 10% of the lowest-profitability row crop land to perennial switchgrass. Potential benefits from landscape design include increased biodiversity, soil and water quality improvements, increased soil carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation, and reduced fertilizer use and cost. Our model results showed that increasing benefits can accrue when complementary conservation practices (e.g., reduced tillage, use of a rye cover crop) are combined and integrated throughout a fuelshed or watershed area. We conclude that ecologically based landscape designs offer valuable insights about costs and benefits of land management alternatives, with relevance for achieving stakeholder goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Biosystems Design to Accelerate C 3 -to-CAM Progression

Global demand for food and bioenergy production has increased rapidly, while the area of arable land has been declining for decades due to damage caused by erosion, pollution, sea level rise, urban development, soil salinization, and water scarcity driven by global climate change. In order to overcome this conflict, there is an urgent need to adapt conventional agriculture to water-limited and hotter conditions with plant crop systems that display higher water-use efficiency (WUE). Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) species have substantially higher WUE than species performing C 3 or C 4 photosynthesis. CAM plants are derived from C 3 photosynthesis ancestors. However, it is extremely unlikely that the C 3 or C 4 crop plants would evolve rapidly into CAM photosynthesis without human intervention. Currently, there is growing interest in improving WUE through transferring CAM into C 3 crops. However, engineering a major metabolic plant pathway, like CAM, is challenging and requires a comprehensive deep understanding of the enzymatic reactions and regulatory networks in both C 3 and CAM photosynthesis, as well as overcoming physiometabolic limitations such as diurnal stomatal regulation. Recent advances in CAM evolutionary genomics research, genome editing, and synthetic biology have increased the likelihood of successful acceleration of C 3 -to-CAM progression. Here, we first summarize the systems biology-level understanding of the molecular processes in the CAM pathway. Then, we review the principles of CAM engineering in an evolutionary context. Lastly, we discuss the technical approaches to accelerate the C 3 -to-CAM transition in plants using synthetic biology toolboxes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture. Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactions crucial for predicting nutrient loading under future climate scenarios. This foundational work is aimed at setting the stage for the future development of an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model would incorporate SWAT outputs to dynamically simulate decision-making processes.

Bunyon, Enock↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Level Impacts of Extreme Climate-Related Events on Food Supply Chain: Idaho Potato's Case Study

Background: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, floods, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increasing frequencies and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperature reduces overall yields of the desirable crops but proliferates weeds and harmful pests. Current data shows that every year U.S. farmers spend more than 11 billion USD to fight weeds and this number is expected to rise in the coming years due to climate change. Due to droughts, the water required for irrigation is becoming scarcer. Since many areas are becoming climatically unusable for crop production, the amount of farmland area is shrinking rapidly. In addition, changes in precipitation patterns are causing crop failures and negatively impacting expected yields. In this study, we investigated how different extreme climate events impact different stages of a food supply chain. Approach: As a case study, we chose Idaho’s potato supply chain (SC). Idaho is the top potato producing state in the U.S. and contributes around 30% of the nation’s potato production. Using the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach, we developed a multi-echelon potato supply chain computer simulation model with six types of agents – seed producers, farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the baseline scenario, we developed two additional climate-related disruption events – drought and snowstorm. We investigated how each of these disruption events impacts different stakeholders across the supply chain in terms of revenue and some other key performance metrics such as lead time, food waste, number of delayed orders, and order fulfillment rate. Results: Extreme climate events not only impact the growers but there is also cascading ripple effects downstream of the supply chain. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural SC to understand the vulnerabilities of the different links. The findings would potentially help to adopt new policies for the well-being of the overall SC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Miscanthus: An Environmental Choice for Marginal Lands

Miscanthus x giganteus, or Giant Miscanthus, is a tall, perennial grass originally from Asia. It is considered a sterile hybrid that has been bred to not produce viable seeds. Instead, rhizomes are planted to establish the crop. Here, the rhizome is an underground modified stem mass that puts out shoots and roots supporting new growth each year. This perennial crop takes two to three years to reach maturity, but established stands can reach upwards of 12 ft. tall with a very thick canopy (Pyter, 2007). Miscanthus has shown potential for high dry matter yields compared to other biomass crops, which could in turn lead to more efficient land use especially when applied to a bioenergy and bioproduct supply chain. In one study, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) yielded 10.3 Mg/ha of biomass on average, while miscanthus yielded 22.4 Mg/ha (Heaton et al., 2004). Additionally, miscanthus production has been associated with many environmental benefits, including benefits to water quality, nutrient load removal, soil stabilization, and soil health (Bhardwaj et al., 2011; Hussain et al., 2019). Many of the possible practical and environmental benefits that are associated with miscanthus production may be attractive to stakeholders who are interested in alternative land use options, particularly in areas considered to be marginal in productivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A regional inter-disciplinary partnership focusing on the development of a carinata-centered bioeconomy

Brassica carinata or Ethiopian mustard, a non-edible oilseed brassica, is a low carbon, purpose-grown, and none-to-low indirect land-use change bioenergy feedstock for the production of drop-in sustainable aviation fuel, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and a suite of value-added coproducts. Carinata oil converted to drop-in fuel using an American Society for Testing and Materials approved Catalytic Hydrothermolysis process has been successfully tested in commercial and military aviation. Carinata meal, the residue after oil extraction, is a high-protein feed supplement for livestock, poultry, and swine, and can also yield specialty products. The Southeast Partnership for Advanced Renewables from Carinata (SPARC) is a public–private partnership formed with a twofold mission: (1) Removing physical, environmental, social, and economic constraints that prevent regional intensification of carinata production as a low-carbon feedstock for renewable fuel and coproducts and (2) demonstrating enhanced value across the entire value chain by mitigating risk to farmers and other stakeholders. The partnership's goal is to energize the US bioeconomy through sustainable agriculture and thus contribute to energy security and economic diversification. SPARC relies on a combination of cutting-edge multidisciplinary research and active industry engagement to facilitate adoption of the crop. This involves informing stakeholders along the entire supply chain, from producers to end-users, policymakers, influencers, and the public, about the opportunities and best practices related to carinata. This article provides context and background concerning carinata commercialization as a winter cash crop in the Southeast US for renewable fuels and bioproducts. The advances made to date in the areas of feedstock development, fuel and coproduct development, meal valorization, supply chain logistics, and stakeholder engagement are outlined.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rapid in situ nutrient element distribution in plants and soils using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy ($\mathrm{LIBS}$)

The aim of this study is to develop and test the applicability of a rapid in situ plant chemistry profiling technique to determine elemental composition of small-volume plant and soil samples obtained from a woody bioenergy crop species, Populus trichocarpa. Expanding the research tools available to characterize the nutrient element correlations among plant tissue types and soil depths is a critical need in the path of understanding productivity and adaptation of plants to variations in external abiotic and biotic factors and developing sustainable perennial bioenergy crops that are co-optimized for biomass valorization aboveground and carbon sequestration belowground. Several plant root, stem, and soil samples were tested using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) to evaluate the presence and distribution of nutrient elements. Samples were tested as collected and after being dried and cross sectioned to evaluate the effectiveness of using LIBS for in situ analysis on plant samples. The collected LIBS spectra show the elemental peaks were the same in both the as collected and prepared samples for roots and stems. Qualitative amounts of elements such as H, C, N, O, Li, Na, Mg, K, Ca, Fe, Al, and Si were able to be identified rapidly in raw samples. Here in this report we demonstrate suitability of LIBS in obtaining rapid, in situ, elemental distribution in plant and soil samples, utilizing only small sample volumes and minimal sample preparation. This demonstration opens up a new rapid phenotyping avenue necessary to fill the asymmetrical knowledge gaps in belowground performance of plant systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Biomass Production and Nutrient Removal by Perennial Energy Grasses Produced on a Wet Marginal Land

Growing dedicated bioenergy crops on marginal land can provide beneficial outcomes including biomass production and energy, resource management, and ecosystem services. We investigated the effects of harvest timing (peak standing crop [PEAK] or after killing frost [KF]) and nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates (0, 56, and 112 kg N ha -1 ) on yield, nutrient concentrations, and nutrient removal rates of perennial grasses on a wet marginal land. We evaluated three monocultures, including switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L., SW), Miscanthus x giganteus (MG), prairie cordgrass (Spartina pectinata Link, PCG), and a polyculture mixture of big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii Vitman), Indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans (L.) Nash), and sideoats grama (Bouteloua curtipendula Torr., MIX). Increasing the application of N did correlate with increased biomass, concentration, and subsequent removal of nutrients across almost all treatment combinations. In all grass treatments except MG, PEAK harvesting increased yield and nutrient removal. At PEAK harvest, switchgrass is ideal for optimizing both biomass production and nutrient removal. While our results also suggest short-term plasticity for farmers when selecting harvest timing for optimal nutrient removal, KF harvest is recommended to ensure long-term stand longevity and adequate nutrient removal. If the KF harvest is adopted, MG would be the ideal option for optimizing biomass yield potential. Additionally, we found that the yield of polyculture did not vary much with harvest timing, suggesting better yield stability. Future studies should give consideration for long-term evaluation of polyculture mixtures to assess their biomass yields and nutrient removal capacities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reused cultivation water from a self-inhibiting alga does not inhibit other algae but alters their microbiomes

Economical production of algal commodities (food, feed, and fuels) requires reusing cultivation water to reduce operating costs. While some algae strains show growth inhibition in reused water, other strains appear un-affected. Reusing water to grow different strains (i.e., crop rotation) could potentially improve overall biomass production compared to water reuse with the same strain by reducing accumulation of strain-specific waste products, limiting carryover of population-specific pathogens such as viruses, and introducing bacteria that degrade residual organic matter. Here, batch culture experiments tested the effects of reused cultivation water from the self-inhibiting diatom Staurosira sp. C323 on the diatom Navicula sp. SFP and green alga Chlorella sp. D046, as well as their microbiomes. Navicula sp. and Chlorella sp. grew well in Staurosira sp. reused water, indicating that previously observed self-inhibition was likely specific to this Staurosira strain. While algal mi-crobiomes were not significantly different between controls and reused water treatments, specific bacteria taxa were differentially abundant in reused treatments, suggesting that some taxa responded to compounds re-maining in the reused water. Finally, results suggest that algae growth responses in reused water may depend largely on strain-specific factors, and that crop rotation can support biomass production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Carbon-Negative Biofuel Production

Achievement of the 1.5 °C limit for global temperature increase relies on the large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. In this article, we explore two CDR technologies: soil carbon sequestration (SCS), and carbon capture and storage (CCS) integrated with cellulosic biofuel production. These CDR technologies are applied as part of decentralized biorefinery systems processing corn stover and unfertilized switchgrass grown in riparian zones in the Midwestern United States. Cover crops grown on corn-producing lands are chosen from the SCS approach, and biogenic CO 2 in biorefineries is captured, transported by pipeline, and injected into saline aquifers. The decentralized biorefinery system using SCS, CCS, or both can produce carbon-negative cellulosic biofuels (≤-22.2 gCO 2 MJ –1 ). Meanwhile, biofuel selling prices increase by 15–45% due to CDR costs. Economic incentives (e.g., cover crop incentives and/or a CO 2 tax credit) can mitigate price increases caused by CDR technologies. Lastly, a combination of different CDR technologies in decentralized biorefinery systems is the most efficient method for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, and its total GHG mitigation potential in the Midwest is 0.16 GtCO 2 year –1 .

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

What Factors Drive the Changes in Water Withdrawals in the U.S. Agriculture and Food Manufacturing Industries between 1995 and 2010?

Climate change and increasing world population will directly impact the global food supply chain linkages. In the United States, agricultural production requires less irrigated water than before but it still accounts for a third of total water withdrawals. To better understand the evolution of its water use, we perform a structural decomposition analysis of water withdrawals across eight different crops and six livestock categories and differentiate the trends over 1995–2005 vs 2005–2010 to account for the role of the economic crisis in the second period. Based on USGS data, the results show that both periods experienced an overall decline in water withdrawals in the production of all crops except oilseeds. This trend is driven by a decrease in water intensity, reflecting greater efficiency of irrigation systems, and by reduced local per capita income in the second period. However, increased foreign demand for water-intensive sectors like oilseeds from NAFTA and Asian partners mitigated the decline. Results indicate also a decreasing water use in livestock production partially due to a shift from red to white meat consumption in the country. Arguably, recent tariff wars and border closures have greatly reduced the virtual water embodied in American exports.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Attaining the promise of plant gene editing at scale

Crop improvement relies heavily on genetic variation that arises spontaneously through mutation. Modern breeding methods are very adept at combining this genetic variation in ways that achieve remarkable improvements in plant performance. Novel traits have also been created through mutation breeding and transgenesis. The advent of gene editing, however, marks a turning point: With gene editing, synthetic variation will increasingly supplement and, in some cases, supplant the genetic variation that occurs naturally. We are still in the very early stages of realizing the opportunity provided by plant gene editing. At present, typically only one or a few genes are targeted for mutation at a time, and most mutations result in loss of gene function. New technological developments, however, promise to make it possible to perform gene editing at scale. RNA virus vectors, for example, can deliver gene-editing reagents to the germ line through infection and create hundreds to thousands of diverse mutations in the progeny of infected plants. With developmental regulators, edited somatic cells can be induced to form meristems that yield seed-producing shoots, thereby increasing throughput and shrinking timescales for creating edited plants. As these approaches are refined and others developed, they will allow for accelerated breeding, the domestication of orphan crops and the reengineering of metabolism in a more directed manner than has ever previously been possible.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coupled machine learning–ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N 2 O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N 2 O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N 2 O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N 2 O at both training (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha −1 d −1 ) and held-out testing sites (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha −1 d −1 ). Analyses identified six dominant N 2 O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH 4 + , NO 3 - , water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N 2 O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N 2 O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

AI↗