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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Electrochemical Sodiation Mechanism in Magnetite Nanoparticle-Based Anodes: Understanding of Nanoionics-Based Sodium Ion Storage Behavior of Fe 3 O 4

We report electrochemical ion storage behaviors of Fe 3 O 4 nanoparticles, as a representative transition metal oxide for an environmentally benign and low-cost anode for a sodium-ion battery, are thoroughly investigated through a combination of electrochemical analysis and diagnostics of Fe 3 O 4 electrode cells, X-ray-based and spectroscopic analysis of material structure evolution as functions of depth of discharge (DoD) and state of charge (SoC), and first principle modeling. The gravimetric capacity is found to be 50 mA h/g for bulk Fe 3 O 4 (50 nm average crystallite size) and 100 mA h/g--about a tenth of the theoretical prediction for complete conversion--for Fe 3 O 4 nanoparticles (8.7 nm average particle size), respectively. A fundamental and mechanistic study of material evolution as functions of DoD and SoC shows that Fe 3 O 4 does not allow electrochemical incorporation of Na + ions into the empty cation positions of the inverse spinel structure, leading to our assertion that electrochemical intercalation of Na + ions to conversion of the Fe 3 O 4 anode in sodium-ion batteries is nonviable. A density functional theory investigation points to the impracticality of the intercalation of Na + ions into Fe 3 O 4 and further validates our experimental findings. We propose several possible mechanisms corresponding to the observed low capacity, including formation of solid electrolyte interphases with unfavorable properties and adsorption of Na + ions onto surfaces of nanoparticles and/or at heterointerfaces in Fe 3 O 4 composite electrodes in a NaPF 6 -based electrolyte system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design of closed-loop recycling production of a Diels–Alder polymer from a biomass-derived difuran as a functional additive for polyurethanes

Acetalization of biomass-derived 5-hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF) with pentaerythritol produced a difuran (HPH) monomer in the presence of an acid catalyst. A recyclable polymer was then synthesized by Diels–Alder reaction of bismaleimide and the HMF-derived difuran (HPH). A polyurethane, produced from the Diels–Alder polymer has a higher glass transition temperature than a polyurethane, produced from ethylene glycol. The polyurethane, containing Diels–Alder polymer also has a self-healing ability. The Diels–Alder polymer could be hydrolyzed in acidic acetate buffer at 60 °C to produce the monomers for recycling. Each produced monomer was separated by solvent extraction, and the extracted monomers were recovered in different solvent fractions, such as aqueous, ethyl acetate, and acetone fractions. Techno economic analysis was used to assess the minimum selling price ($\$14.1$ per kg) for the primary production of Diels–Alder polymer at a feed capacity of 400 tons per year. The economic viability of the primary recovery process for the most expensive recovered monomer, bismaleimide, was assessed by calculating the minimum selling price of the bismaleimide ($\$15.2$ per kg). In conclusion, a circular closed-loop recycling production process for the Diels–Alder polymer was developed and this approach can produce the Diels–Alder polymer at $8.2 per kg when the feed capacity was 40 ktons per year.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the effects of structural disorder on the magnetic properties of Nd 2 Zr 2 O 7

Motivated by the variation in reported lattice parameters of floating-zone-grown Nd 2 Zr 2 O 7 crystals, we have performed a detailed study of the relationship between synthesis environment, structural disorder, and magnetic properties. Using a combination of polycrystalline standards, electron-probe microanalysis, and scattering techniques, we show that crystals grown under atmospheric conditions have a reduced lattice parameter relative to pristine polycrystalline powders due to occupation of the Nd site by excess Zr (i.e., negative stuffing). In contrast, crystals grown under high-pressure Ar are nearly stoichiometric with an average lattice parameter approaching the polycrystalline value. While minimal disorder of the oxygen sublattices is observed on the scale of the average structure, neutron pair-distribution function analysis indicates a highly local disorder of the oxygen coordination, which is only weakly dependent on growth environment. Most importantly, our magnetization, heat capacity, and single-crystal neutron scattering data show that the magnetic properties of crystals grown under high-pressure Ar match closely with those of stoichiometric powders. Neutron scattering measurements reveal that the signature of magnetic moment fragmentation—the coexistence of all-in-all-out (AIAO) magnetic Bragg peaks and diffuse pinch-point scattering due to spin-ice correlations–persists in these nearly stoichiometric crystals. However, in addition to an increased AIAO transition temperature, the diffuse signal is seemingly stabilized and remains nearly unchanged upon warming to 800 mK. This behavior indicates that both the AIAO magnetic order and spin-ice correlations are sensitive to deviations of the Nd stoichiometry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Network upgrade exploiting multi band: S- or E-band?

Nowadays, the fiber spectrum is only partially exploited, i.e., mainly in the C-band and more recently in the C + L-band, where the fiber attenuation profile experiences the minimum. Thus, fiber communications technology—amplifiers, switching, transceivers, etc.—and networking solutions are mature for those spectrum bands. However, the continuous increase in traffic means that capacity saturation of the current infrastructure is looming. Taking advantage of the unused portions of the spectrum (e.g., the S- and E-bands) may be an efficient solution to accommodate an increase in traffic without installing new fibers. Research is thus investigating multi-band transmission and networking to evaluate and enable such network upgrades. Some issues need to be solved or taken into account, from the enabling technology (e.g., amplifiers in the S- or E-band are still under development) to physical layer effects previously neglected, such as stimulated Raman scattering (SRS). SRS affects wideband transmission, potentially degrading active channels. The contribution of this paper is the investigation of network upgrades for C + L-band systems. In particular, upgrades exploiting the E- and S-bands are compared taking into account each band capacity and the effects of SRS on both new and already deployed channels (in both the C- and L-bands). A detailed analysis of the physical layer is provided also in the presence of guard bands between previously exploited bands and the bands used for upgrade. By leveraging the physical layer assessment, a networking analysis is carried out to evaluate the supported traffic increase and also the signal quality degradation due to SRS on active channels. Overall, the results suggest that upgrades to the E- and S-bands support a comparable increase in traffic. However, the exploitation of the E-band with 14 THz of guard band between the C- and E-bands may avoid detrimental effects to already active channels in the C + L-band, suggesting this upgrade strategy can be the most effective of the two.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Analysis of System Balance and Architectural Trends Based on Top500 Supercomputers

Supercomputer design is a complex, multi-dimensional optimization process, wherein several subsystems need to be reconciled to meet a desired figure of merit performance for a portfolio of applications and a budget constraint. However, overall, the HPC community has been gravitating towards ever more FLOPS, at the expense of many other subsystems. To draw attention to overall system balance, in this paper, we analyze balance ratios and architectural trends in the world's most powerful supercomputers. Specifically, we have collected performance characteristics of systems between1993 and 2018 based on the Top500 lists, and then analyzed their architectures from diverse system design perspectives. Notably, our analysis studies the performance balance of the machines, across a variety of subsystems such as compute, memory, I/O, interconnect, intra-node connectivity and power. Our analysis reveals that balance ratios of the various subsystems need to be considered carefully alongside the application workload portfolio to provision the subsystem capacity and bandwidth specifications, which can help achieve optimal performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synthetic Electricity Market Data Generation and HERON Use Case Setup of Advanced Nuclear Reactors Coupled with Thermal Energy Storage Systems

This study evaluates and optimizes advanced nuclear reactors coupled with thermal energy storage (TES) systems in an Integrated Energy System (IES) architecture to enable advanced nuclear power plants (A NPP) to participate in multi-commodity markets, thus enhancing their economic competitiveness. Nuclear-TES coupling scenarios studied herein are designed attenuate the nuclear heat dynamics and defer energy delivery to a later time, enabling the nuclear reactor to continue operating at or near steady-state design conditions as usual while also enabling flexible generation. Three A-NPPs, namely, an advanced light-water reactor (A LWR), a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) and a liquid-metal fast reactor (LMFR) were selected as the initial use cases for demonstrating the technoeconomic of thermally balanced energy storage coupling design for thermal power extraction. Each of the reactor technologies were evaluated in two different electricity markets. Stochastic optimization approach was adopted which included the evaluation of price signals from the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) market, and Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) tool and its dispatch optimization plugin, the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), were used to perform dispatch and capacity optimization, using the price data provided by the ARMA models. The results from the Nuclear-TES use cases will be used to design and characterize dynamic integrated system behavior and feedback.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Analysis of System Balance and Architectural Trends Based on Top500 Supercomputers

Supercomputer design is a complex, multi-dimensional optimization process, wherein several subsystems need to be reconciled to meet a desired figure of merit performance for a portfolio of applications and a budget constraint. However, overall, the HPC community has been gravitating towards ever more Flops, at the expense of many other subsystems. To draw attention to overall system balance, in this paper, we analyze balance ratios and architectural trends in the world’s most powerful supercomputers. Specifically, we have collected the performance characteristics of systems between 1993 and 2019 based on the Top500 lists and then analyzed their architectures from diverse system design perspectives. Notably, our analysis studies the performance balance of the machines, across a variety of subsystems such as compute, memory, I/O, interconnect, intra-node connectivity and power. Our analysis reveals that balance ratios of the various subsystems need to be considered carefully alongside the application workload portfolio to provision the subsystem capacity and bandwidth specifications, which can help achieve optimal performance.

Khan, Awais↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Value of Increased HVDC Capacity Between Eastern and Western U.S. Grids: The Interconnections Seam Study

The Interconnections Seam Study examines the potential economic value of increasing electricity transfer between the Eastern and Western Interconnections using high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission and cost-optimizing both generation and transmission resources across the United States. The study conducted a multi-model analysis that used co-optimized generation and transmission expansion planning and production cost modeling. Four transmission designs under eight scenarios were developed and studied to estimate costs and potential benefits. The results show benefit-to-cost ratios that reach as high as 2.9, indicating significant value to increasing the transmission capacity between the interconnections under the cases considered, realized through sharing generation resources and flexibility across regions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Energy Storage Integrated with a Combined Cycle Plant

A project is being developed that will build upon the existing infrastructure and resources at the Intermountain Power Project (IPP) site to provide reliable, dispatchable energy and to support the transmission of renewable energy resources while transitioning to an economical green energy future. The concept study depicted in this report outlines a techno-economic optimization to fulfill the demand for 30% vol hydrogen co-firing in the IPP 840 MW advanced class combined cycle power plant. In an initial step, a site assessment concluded the site has sufficient land available to co-locate a hydrogen production and storage facility. The team evaluated and defined a scalable concept that considered technology characteristics, including input and output models to be used for optimization purposes. The concept for the hydrogen production and storage system integrates multiple technologies, to determine system size and scalable approach, for each of the technologies evaluated, the team defined component and subcomponent sizes, minimum and maximum capacity, modularity, component utility consumption (electric, water), component flexibility and servicing, layout, and technology status, as well as technology alternatives. For hydrogen generation, the project considers Siemens Energy’s Silyzer-300 (S300) technology, a 17.5 MW modular Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolyzer. For the S300 configuration, the team determined that three S300 arrays, or approximately 1,000 kg/hr, per block would yield a compact block design. This configuration results in a fairly wide and flexible arrangement that fits well into the spaces available at the site. Therefore, the overall design approach is based on multiple identical blocks of 3 arrays to minimize engineering cost and optimize constructability. In parallel, a transmission screening study was conducted to determine any potential transmission constraints from the energy sources that could feed the hydrogen production equipment. The study results show that minimum transmission constraints would be encountered to deliver 400 MW renewable generation from southern California, or south-central Wyoming. At last, the techno-economic analysis concluded that a scenario that uses solar and wind power yields the lowest levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH 2 ) production and the lowest cost per tonne of CO 2 reduced. In this optimized scenario, the hydrogen production plant was determined as 6,201 kg/hr and the hydrogen storage (underground cavern) was determined as 4,600 tonnes. The resulting capacity factor for the hydrogen production plant was 66.33% with 8,745 operating hours in one year. This techno-economic analysis provided various options for integrating hydrogen storage at the Intermountain Power Plant site to co-fire the CCPP units. The results provide insightful data about the magnitude of capacity needed and the economics of producing hydrogen and reducing CO 2 emissions.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design and Analysis of a 200 kW Dynamic Wireless Charging System for Electric Vehicles

Dynamic wireless charging of electric vehicles can significantly alleviate or eliminate range anxiety while reducing the required on-board battery capacity. To achieve an electric vehicle charging balance with minimal infrastructure costs, power transfer levels around 200 kW are required. In this paper, a system architecture with a modularized power electronics and optimized power transfer couplers was adopted to enable efficient power transfer. A DC/DC converter was used for secondary-side charging control of the battery. The system performance was validated in an experimental setup at 120 kW with 91.31% efficiency from the DC input on the primary side to the vehicle battery.

Xue, Lincoln↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adsorption of molecular iodine and alkyl iodides from spent-nuclear-fuel-reprocessing off-gas using reduced silver mordenite

Radioactive iodine is a hazardous byproduct of spent-nuclear-fuel reprocessing that must be removed from the off-gas stream before it can be discharged. Reduced silver mordenite (Ag 0 Z) is currently the baseline material for iodine capture in the U.S. Although the performance characteristics and capture mechanisms of I 2 and CH 3 I have been established, similar investigations into long-chain organic iodides have yet to be performed. In this study, thin beds of Ag 0 Z were loaded with I 2 , CH 3 I, C 4 H 9 I, and C 12 H 25 I (5 ppm to 50 ppm) carried in a dry air stream at 150°C. The maximum iodine capacity was 105 ± 5 mg I/g Ag 0 Z for all species. Saturated Ag 0 Z samples were characterized using scanning electron microscopy, X-ray fluorescence, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, diffuse reflectance UV–visible spectroscopy, pair distribution function analysis, and thermogravimetric analysis. Further, near-complete Ag utilization and similar physical/chemical properties were observed for all samples. Through a comparison with previous studies and an investigation of aged Ag 0 Z, we propose that iodine species react with Ag + at exchange sites, forming α-AgI within the mordenite channels, and with surface Ag 0 nanoparticles, yielding β-/γ-AgI. The available Ag sites in the interior (Ag + ) and exterior (Ag 0 ) of mordenite determine the adsorption capacity since α-AgI formation is limited by the total pore volume. Potential iodine uptake routes were summarized for aging and non-aging environments. A scalable predictive model was implemented for deep-bed iodine removal, and predictions were in good agreement with experimental data. Sensitivity analysis suggests that iodine uptake kinetics is governed by pore diffusion.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Life Cycle Inventories and Data Gap Analysis for Rare Earth Elements: Neodymium and Dysprosium from Mining to Magnets

The United States demand for Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets, produced from rare earth elements (REEs) such as (Nd) and Dysprosium (Dy), far exceeds its nascent domestic production capacity, rendering it reliant on vulnerable global supply chains dominated by China. To guide research and development investments in securing U.S. REE supply, defensible benchmark metrics across environmental, economic, and social dimensions are needed. In this study, we built globally-representative, process-based cradle-to-cradle life cycle inventories for Nd and Dy in NdFeB magnets lifecycles, encompassing primary material acquisition, beneficiation, smelting and refining, metal processing, specialty alloy and chemical transformation, subcomponent manufacturing, consumer application (use phase) and end-of-life management. We carried out detailed literature review, and applied process engineering principles to build industry-representative upscaled life cycle inventories for both metals. We used these models to conduct bottom-up literature review and gap analysis on existing literature, compilation of data sources for each life cycle stage (and transformations where necessary), and a preliminary technoeconomic analysis (TEA)/life cycle costing analysis (LCCA). Findings from this work emphasize the need for metal specific, representative REE LCIs to establish robust benchmarks for advancing sustainable REE technologies and guiding R&D in REE supply chains.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Strength Analysis for Integrating 30 GW of Offshore Wind Generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection: Preprint

Offshore wind is a key player in the transition to a decarbonized electric gird, and the United States has set ambitious goals of integrating 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050. To facilitate this integration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are conducting the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study to assess transmission solutions. To achieve the 110-GW target by 2050, meticulous planning for network expansion and resource allocation is essential; however, meeting the 2030 goals requires integrating offshore wind power with minimal system upgrades, thus necessitating a careful study of grid strength and stability. The study team developed the Grid Strength Analysis Tool (GSAT) to assess system strength under various operating conditions and contingencies, focusing on the proposed integration of 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030. In this paper, we provide a summary of key features of the GSAT software and results of the grid strength analysis for integrating 30 GW of offshore wind generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection.

Automated System-wide Strength Evaluation Tool (AS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanical Properties of Functionally Graded Concrete Lining for Deep Underground Structures

With the mining depth of coal resources increasing, the thickness of traditional lining for deep mines becomes large. The bearing capacity of the outer lining cannot be fully utilized, so a new type of functionally graded lining structure (FGL) with radial Young’s modulus varying in gradient is proposed. In this study, through theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, the mechanical properties of the functionally graded lining were studied, including the characteristics of the elastic working state and the ultimate bearing state. The influences of the structural parameters of the functionally graded lining, including the inner radius, the thickness, Young’s modulus, the compressive strength of the concrete, Poisson’s ratio, and the number of layers on the mechanical properties were analyzed. The calculation formula of the ultimate bearing capacity of the lining and the calculation formula of the maximum tangential strain at the time of lining failure were put forward. The accuracy of the formula was verified by comparing with the numerical simulation results. The research results provide the basis for the construction of the design theory of a functionally graded lining structure and have great engineering significance for the construction of the kilometer-deep mines in the future.

Li, De-Chun↗
DOE OSTI2023

Functionalized Silicon Particles for Enhanced Half- and Full-Cell Cycling of Si-Based Li-Ion Batteries

Vinylene carbonate (VC) and polyethylene oxide (PEO) have been investigated as functional agents that mimic the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) chemistry of silicon (Si). VC and PEO are known to contribute to the stability of Si-based lithium-ion batteries as an electrolyte additive and as a SEI component, respectively. In this work, covalent surface functionalization was achieved via a facile route, which involves ball-milling the Si particles with sacrificial VC and PEO. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance (MAS NMR) spectroscopy indicate that the additives are strongly bound to Si. In particular, MAS NMR shows Si–R or Si–O–R groups, which confirm functionalization of the Si after milling in VC or PEO. Particle size analysis by dynamic light scattering reveals that the additives facilitate particle size reduction and that the functionalized particles result in more stable dispersions based on zeta potential measurements. Raman mapping of the electrodes fabricated from the VC and PEO-coated active material with a polyacrylic acid (PAA) binder reveals a more homogenous distribution of Si and the carbon conductive additive compared to the electrodes prepared from the neat Si. Furthermore, the VC-milled Si strikingly exhibited the highest capacity in both half- and full-cell configurations, with more than 200 mAh g –1 measured capacity compared to the neat Si in the half-cell format. This is linked to an improved electrode processing based on the Raman and zeta potential measurements as well as a thinner SEI (with more organic components for the functionalized Si relative to the neat Si) based on XPS analysis of the cycled electrodes. In conclusion, the effect of binder was also investigated by comparing PAA with P84 (polyimide type), where an increased capacity is observed in the latter case.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

System-level performance and degradation of 21 GWDC of utility-scale PV plants in the United States

We assess the performance of a fleet of 411 utility-scale (i.e., >5 MWAC and ground-mounted) photovoltaic (PV) projects totaling 21.1 GWDC (16.3 GWAC) of capacity, which achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007 to 2016. This fleet of projects contributed more than 50% of all solar electricity generated in the United States in 2017. Using detailed information on individual project characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, we assess the extent to which actual first-year performance has lived up to both modeled and stated expectations. We then analyze system-level performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on system performance. We find that this fleet of utility-scale PV projects has generally lived up to ex ante expectations for first-year performance but that subsequent system-level degradation—found to be −1.3%/year (±0.2%)—has, on average, been worse than both ex ante expectations (commonly −0.5%/year) and results from past studies (ranging from −0.8%/year to −1.0%/year). We emphasize that −1.3%/year is a system-level estimate that captures more than just module degradation (e.g., including soiling, balance of plant degradation, and downtime for maintenance and/or other events). A side analysis of a variety of project characteristics suggests that system-level degradation rates tend to be of lower magnitude among newer projects and larger projects and at sites with lower long-term average temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A State-Space Model for Stability Boundary Analysis of Grid-Following Voltage Source Converters Considering Grid Conditions

With the growing significance of renewable energy resources and energy storage systems, the number of grid-connected inverters has been rising at an increasingly rapid pace. Generally, these inverters are directly integrated with the distribution network by synchronizing with the grid voltage at the point of common coupling. However, the low grid strength and varying R/X ratios, as the common characteristics of most distribution networks or weak grids, can lead to dynamic interactions that comprise stability and limit the power transfer capacity of grid-connected inverters. To ensure stable operation of the inverters, researchers must determine the stability boundary, described as the maximum power transfer capacity of grid-connected inverters under the premise of maintaining system small-signal stability. For this purpose, we propose to formulate a state-space model of the system in the synchronously rotating dq-frame of reference and perform eigenvalue analysis to determine the stability boundary. With a detailed model of the control structure and parameters of the grid-connected inverters, the stability boundary is identified as a surface with respect to different grid strengths and R/X ratios. Case study results of proposed eigenvalue analysis are compared with those of admittance model-based stability analysis as well as time-domain simulation using a switching model in Matlab/Simulink, validating the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed eigenvalue analysis for stability boundary identification.

grid-connected inverters↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification of Transition Scenario Simulations

This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.

Feng, B.↗