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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2011

Role of SPI-1 Secreted Effectors in Acute Bovine Response to Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium: A Systems Biology Analysis Approach

Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium) causes enterocolitis with diarrhea and polymorphonuclear cell (PMN) influx into the intestinal mucosa in humans and calves. The Salmonella Type III Secretion System (T3SS) encoded at Pathogenicity Island I translocates Salmonella effector proteins SipA, SopA, SopB, SopD, and SopE2 into epithelial cells and is required for induction of diarrhea. These effector proteins act together to induce intestinal fluid secretion and transcription of C-X-C chemokines, recruiting PMNs to the infection site. While individual molecular interactions of the effectors with cultured host cells have been characterized, their combined role in intestinal fluid secretion and inflammation is less understood. We hypothesized that comparison of the bovine intestinal mucosal response to wild type Salmonella and a SipA, SopABDE2 effector mutant relative to uninfected bovine ileum would reveal heretofore unidentified diarrheaassociated host cellular pathways. To determine the coordinated effects of these virulence factors, a bovine ligated ileal loop model was used to measure responses to wild type S. Typhimurium (WT) and a ΔsipA, sopABDE2 mutant (MUT) across 12 hours of infection using a bovine microarray. Data were analyzed using standard microarray analysis and a dynamic Bayesian network modeling approach (DBN). Both analytical methods confirmed increased expression of immune response genes to Salmonella infection and novel gene expression. Gene expression changes mapped to 219 molecular interaction pathways and 1620 gene ontology groups. Bayesian network modeling identified effects of infection on several interrelated signaling pathways including MAPK, Phosphatidylinositol, mTOR, Calcium, Toll-like Receptor, CCR3, Wnt, TGF-β, and Regulation of Actin Cytoskeleton and Apoptosis that were used to model of host-pathogen interactions. Comparison of WT and MUT demonstrated significantly different patterns of host response at early time points of infection (15 minutes, 30 minutes and one hour) within phosphatidylinositol, CCR3, Wnt, and TGF-β signaling pathways and the regulation of actin cytoskeleton pathway.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Accommodating Uncertainty in Prior Distributions

A fundamental premise of Bayesian methodology is that a priori information is accurately summarized by a single, precisely de ned prior distribution. In many cases, especially involving informative priors, this premise is false, and the (mis)application of Bayes methods produces posterior quantities whose apparent precisions are highly misleading. We examine the implications of uncertainty in prior distributions, and present graphical methods for dealing with them.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and Optimization of Seismo-Acoustic Monitoring Networks with Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design

The Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) problem seeks to identify data, sensor configurations, or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty. The goal of OED is to find an experiment that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge about expected data. Therefore, within the context of seismic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types, and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize the ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases. In order to do utilize Bayesian OED we must develop four elements:1. A likelihood function that describes the uncertainty of detection and travel times; 2. A Bayesian solver that takes a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior; 3. An algorithm to compute EIG; and, 4. An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we can explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how and what multiphenomenology data can be used to optimally reduce uncertainty, how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty, and how sensor types, number, and locations influence uncertainty

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1983

Trajectory-Estimation Error Analysis

Orbital and Geodetic Parameter Estimation Error Analysis Program (ORAN) is Bayesian least-squares simulation program for orbital trajectories. ORAN does not process data; rather, computes accuracy of results of data reduction if measurements are processed by minimum-variance data-reduction program. Actual data used to provide time when given measurement was available and estimated noise on that measurement.

Putney, B.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainty Quantification Analysis of Both Experimental and CFD Simulation Data of a Bench-scale Fluidized Bed Gasifier

Adequate assessment of the uncertainties in modeling and simulation is becoming an integral part of the simulation based engineering design. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the application of non-intrusive Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology in multiphase (gas-solid) flows with experimental and simulation data, as part of our research efforts to determine the most suited approach for UQ of a bench scale fluidized bed gasifier. UQ analysis was first performed on the available experimental data. Global sensitivity analysis performed as part of the UQ analysis shows that among the three operating factors, steam to oxygen ratio has the most influence on syngas composition in the bench-scale gasifier experiments. An analysis for forward propagation of uncertainties was performed and results show that an increase in steam to oxygen ratio leads to an increase in H2 mole fraction and a decrease in CO mole fraction. These findings are in agreement with the ANOVA analysis performed in the reference experimental study. Another contribution in addition to the UQ analysis is the optimization-based approach to guide to identify next best set of additional experimental samples, should the possibility arise for additional experiments. Hence, the surrogate models constructed as part of the UQ analysis is employed to improve the information gain and make incremental recommendation, should the possibility to add more experiments arise. In the second step, series of simulations were carried out with the open-source computational fluid dynamics software MFiX to reproduce the experimental conditions, where three operating factors, i.e., coal flow rate, coal particle diameter, and steam-to-oxygen ratio, were systematically varied to understand their effect on the syngas composition. Bayesian UQ analysis was performed on the numerical results. As part of Bayesian UQ analysis, a global sensitivity analysis was performed based on the simulation results, which shows that the predicted syngas composition is strongly affected not only by the steam-to-oxygen ratio (which was observed in experiments as well) but also by variation in the coal flow rate and particle diameter (which was not observed in experiments). The carbon monoxide mole fraction is underpredicted at lower steam-to-oxygen ratios and overpredicted at higher steam-to-oxygen ratios. The opposite trend is observed for the carbon dioxide mole fraction. These discrepancies are attributed to either excessive segregation of the phases that leads to the fuel-rich or -lean regions or alternatively the selection of reaction models, where different reaction models and kinetics can lead to different syngas compositions throughout the gasifier. To improve quality of numerical models used, the effect that uncertainties in reaction models for gasification, char oxidation, carbon monoxide oxidation, and water gas shift will have on the syngas composition at different grid resolution, along with bed temperature were investigated. The global sensitivity analysis showed that among various reaction models employed for water gas shift, gasification, char oxidation, the choice of reaction model for water gas shift has the greatest influence on syngas composition, with gasification reaction model being second. Syngas composition also shows a small sensitivity to temperature of the bed. The hydrodynamic behavior of the bed did not change beyond grid spacing of 18 times the particle diameter. However, the syngas concentration continued to be affected by the grid resolution as low as 9 times the particle diameter. This is due to a better resolution of the phasic interface between the gases and solid that leads to stronger heterogeneous reactions. This report is a compilation of three manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals for the series of studies mentioned above.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of automated stability testing in machining through closed-loop control and Bayesian machine learning

Here, this paper describes a system for automated identification of the optimal stable cutting parameters in milling through Bayesian machine learning and closed-loop control. The closed-loop control system consists of a process monitoring architecture, an analysis framework, and a feedback mechanism. The analysis framework consists of a Bayesian machine learning algorithm that learns a stability map given test results. The learned stability map is used to select parameters for stability testing using an expected improvement in the material removal rate criterion. The test parameters are communicated to the machine controller to complete the test cut through a feedback mechanism. The test cuts were monitored using an audio signal; the stability of the test cut was determined by analyzing the frequency content of the audio signal. The test result was fed back to the Bayesian learning algorithm to complete the loop. Experimental results demonstrate that the system can identify the optimal stable parameters without information about the cutting force model or the structural dynamics. The system provides a low-cost method for optimal stable parameter identification in an industrial environment.

Chatter↗
DOE OSTI2012

Study of Single Top Quark Production Using Bayesian Neural Networks With D0 Detector at the Tevatron

Top quark, the heaviest and most intriguing among the six known quarks, can be created via two independent production mechanisms in {\pp} collisions. The primary mode, strong {\ttbar} pair production from a $gtt$ vertex, was used by the {\d0} and CDF collaborations to establish the existence of the top quark in March 1995. The second mode is the electroweak production of a single top quark or antiquark, which has been observed recently in March 2009. Since single top quarks are produced at hadron colliders through a $Wtb$ vertex, thereby provide a direct probe of the nature of $Wtb$ coupling and of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element, $V_{tb}$. So this mechanism provides a sensitive probe for several, standard model and beyond standard model, parameters such as anomalous $Wtb$ couplings. In this thesis, we measure the cross section of the electroweak produced top quark in three different production modes, $s+t$, $s$ and $t$-channels using a technique based on the Bayesian neural networks. This technique is applied for analysis of the 5.4 $fb^{-1}$ of data collected by the {\d0} detector. From a comparison of the Bayesian neural networks discriminants between data and the signal-background model using Bayesian statistics, the cross sections of the top quark produced through the electroweak mechanism have been measured as: \[\sigma(p\bar{p}→tb+X,tqb+X) = 3.11^{+0.77}_{-0.71}\;\rm pb\] \[\sigma(p\bar{p}→tb+X) = 0.72^{+0.44}_{-0.43}\;\rm pb\] \[\sigma(p\bar{p}→tqb+X) = 2.92^{+0.87}_{-0.73}\;\rm pb\] % The $s+t$-channel has a gaussian significance of $4.7\sigma$, the $s$-channel $0.9\sigma$ and the $t$-channel~$4.7\sigma$. The results are consistent with the standard model predictions within one standard deviation. By combining these results with the results for two other analyses (using different MVA techniques) improved results \[\sigma(p\bar{p}→tb+X,tqb+X) = 3.43^{+0.73}_{-0.74}\;\rm pb\] \[\sigma(p\bar{p}→tb+X) = 0.68^{+0.38}_{-0.35}\;\rm pb\] \[\sigma(p\bar{p}→tqb+X) = 2.86^{+0.69}_{-0.63}\;\rm pb\] % were obtained with a significance of $5.4\sigma$, $1.8\sigma$ and $5.0\sigma$ respectively for $s+t$, $s$ and $t$-channels. Using this measured cross section and constraining $0 \leq |V_{tb}|^2 \leq 1$, the lower limit has been calculated to be $|V_{tb}| > 0.79$ with 95\% confidence level (C.L.). Another measurement of $tqb$ production cross section is done using the same dataset and discriminant but without any assumption on the $tb$ production rate. From this measurement, we obtain a cross section of $2.90^{+0.59}_{-0.59}$~pb for $t$-channel and corresponding significance of $5.5\sigma$. In addition to the above mentioned work, a search is made for the anomalous $Wtb$ couplings in single top quark production. Within the Standard Model, the $Wtb$ vertex is purely left-handed, and its amplitude is given by the $V_{tb}$, related to weak interaction between a top and a $b$-quark. In a more general way, additional anomalous couplings such as right-handed vectorial couplings and left and right-handed tensorial couplings can also be considered. An analysis based on the Bayesian neural networks method is used to separate the signal from expected backgrounds. We find no evidence for anomalous couplings and set 95\% C.L. limits on these couplings as $|V_{tb} \cdot f_{L_T}|^2<0.06$, $|V_{tb} \cdot f_{R_V}|^2<0.93$ and $|V_{tb} \cdot f_{R_T}|^2<0.13$. This result represents the most stringent direct constraints on anomalous $Wtb$ interactions. This work has been done in collaboration with \d0 experiment but the analyses and results presented in this thesis are my contribution.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Improving Site-Specific Radiological Performance Assessments - 13431

An improved approach is presented for conducting complete and defensible radiological site-specific performance assessments (PAs) to support radioactive waste disposal decisions. The basic tenets of PA were initiated some thirty years ago, focusing on geologic disposals and evaluating compliance with regulations. Some of these regulations were inherently probabilistic (i.e., addressing uncertainty in a quantitative fashion), such as the containment requirements of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) 40 CFR 191, Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Radioactive Wastes, Chap. 191.13 [1]. Methods of analysis were developed to meet those requirements, but at their core early PAs used 'conservative' parameter values and modeling approaches. This limited the utility of such PAs to compliance evaluation, and did little to inform decisions about optimizing disposal, closure and long-term monitoring and maintenance, or, in general, maintaining doses 'as low as reasonably achievable' (ALARA). This basic approach to PA development in the United States was employed essentially unchanged through the end of the 20. century, principally by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Performance assessments developed in support of private radioactive waste disposal operations, regulated by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and its agreement states, were typically not as sophisticated. Discussion of new approaches to PA is timely, since at the time of this writing, the DOE is in the midst of revising its Order 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management [2], and the NRC is revising 10 CFR 61, Licensing Requirements for Land Disposal of Radioactive Waste [3]. Over the previous decade, theoretical developments and improved computational technology have provided the foundation for integrating decision analysis (DA) concepts and objective-focused thinking, plus a Bayesian approach to probabilistic modeling and risk analysis, to guide improvements in PA. This decision-making approach, [4, 5, 6] provides a transparent formal framework for using a value- or objective-focused approach to decision-making. DA, as an analytical means to implement structured decision making, provides a context for both understanding how uncertainty affects decisions and for targeting uncertainty reduction. The proposed DA approach improves defensibility and transparency of decision-making. The DA approach is fully consistent with the need to perform realistic modeling (rather than conservative modeling), including evaluation of site-specific factors. Instead of using generic stylized scenarios for radionuclide fate and transport and for human exposures to radionuclides, site-specific scenarios better represent the advantages and disadvantages of alternative disposal sites or engineered designs, thus clarifying their differences as well as providing a sound basis for evaluation of site performance. The full DA approach to PA is described, from explicitly incorporating societal values through stakeholder involvement to model building. Model building involves scoping by considering features, events, processes, and exposure scenarios (FEPSs), development of a conceptual site model (CSM), translation into numerical models and subsequent computation, and model evaluation. These are implemented in a cycle of uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis and value of information analysis so that uncertainty can be reduced until sufficient confidence is gained in the decisions to be made. This includes the traditional focus on hydrogeological processes, but also places emphasis on other FEPSs such as biotically-induced transport and human exposure phenomena. The significance of human exposure scenarios is emphasized by modifying the traditional acronym 'FEPs' to include them, hence 'FEPSs'. The radioactive waste community is also recognizing that disposal sites are to be considered a national (or even global) resource. As such, there is a pressing need to optimize their utility within the constraints of protecting human health and the environment. Failing to do so will result in the need for additional sites or options for storing radioactive waste temporarily, assuming a continued need for radioactive waste disposal. Optimization should be performed using DA, including economic analysis, invoked if necessary through the ALARA process. The economic analysis must recognize the cost of implementation (disposal design, closure, maintenance, etc.), and intra- and inter-generational equity in order to ensure that the best possible radioactive waste management decisions are made for the protection of both current and future generations. In most cases this requires consideration of population or collective risk. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Power Grid Resilience with Causal Loops Diagram and Bayesian Networks

Enhancing power grid resilience through improved analysis and planning of Distributed Energy Resources is a key for power system planner. This paper explores the integration of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) and Bayesian Networks (BNs) for enhancing resilience in power systems, focusing on Distributed Energy Resources (DER) planning. By automating CLD analysis in Python's matplotlib, we present a tool for rapid model validation and structural accuracy, crucial for power system planners. This hybrid approach utilizes BNs for inferential depth and CLDs for dynamic system modeling, offering a comprehensive framework for policy formulation and collaborative strategy development against disruptions. Here, we highlight the tool's capability to identify and analyze interconnected feedback loops, facilitating a deeper understanding of DER integration's impact on network resilience. This work aims to bridge quantitative analysis and qualitative insights, addressing the limitations of each method while providing a robust model for power system resilience assessment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Scaling relations of the properties for CO resolved structures in nearby spiral galaxies

Complementing the observations on the eastern part of galaxy NGC 6946 presented in a previous work, we report high spatial resolution observations of giant molecular clouds (GMCs) in the nearby spiral galaxies M101 and NGC 628 obtained with the Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy (CARMA). We observed CO(1→0) over regions with active star formation extending from 2 to 15 kpc galactocentric radius. Higher resolution observations of CO(2→1) toward the brightest regions observed in CO(1→0) have allowed us to resolve some of the largest GMCs. We have recovered short-spacing u–v components by using single dish observations from the Nobeyama 45 m and IRAM 30 m telescopes. Using the automated CPROPS algorithm we identified 112 CO complexes in the CO(1→0) maps and 144 GMCs in the CO(2→1) maps. Using a Bayesian fitting approach, we generate scaling relations for the sizes, line widths, and virial masses of the structures identified in this work. We do not find evidence for a tight power-law relation between size and line width, although the limited dynamic range in cloud size remains a clear issue in our analysis. Additionally, we use a Bayesian approach to analyze the scaling relation between the star formation and molecular gas surface density, known as the Kennicutt–Schmidt relation. When we perform our analysis using the boundaries of the structures identified by CPROPS, we find that the distribution of slopes are broadly distributed, mainly due to the limited dynamic range of our measured Σ{sub H{sub 2}}. In the case of the CO(1→0) complexes, the slope distributions are most consistent with super-linear relations, although sub-linear relations cannot be excluded for NGC 628 and NGC 6946. The GMCs from higher resolution CO(2→1) maps follow a similar behavior, but with larger scatter. As a complementary study, we use the Bayesian approach to analyze the Kennicutt–Schmidt relation for a uniform grid covering the areas surveyed, and with Σ{sub H{sub 2}} non-detections included in the analysis. The distributions of slopes is consistent with sub-linear relations for NGC 6946 and NGC 628, but is less constrained for M101. This picture is preserved after a 24 μm background component is subtracted from the Σ{sub SFR} measurements. On-arm regions tend to have higher star formation rates than inter-arm regions. Similar to what we find in our study of the eastern part of NGC 6946, in M101 we find regions where the star formation efficiency (SFE) shows marked peaks at specific galoctocentric radii. On the other hand, the distribution of SFE in NGC 628 is more contiguous. We hypothesize that differences in the distribution of SFE may be indicative of different processes driving the spiral structure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of a pair-based, joint-likelihood association approach for regional infrasound event identification

SUMMARY A Bayesian framework for the association of infrasonic detections is presented and evaluated for analysis at regional propagation scales. A pair-based, joint-likelihood association approach is developed that identifies events by computing the probability that individual detection pairs are attributable to a hypothetical common source and applying hierarchical clustering to identify events from the pair-based analysis. The framework is based on a Bayesian formulation introduced for infrasonic source localization and utilizes the propagation models developed for that application with modifications to improve the numerical efficiency of the analysis. Clustering analysis is completed using hierarchical analysis via weighted linkage for a non-Euclidean distance matrix defined by the negative log-joint-likelihood values. The method is evaluated using regional synthetic data with propagation distances of hundreds of kilometres in order to study the sensitivity of the method to uncertainties and errors in backazimuth and time of arrival. The method is found to be robust and stable for typical uncertainties, able to effectively distinguish noise detections within the data set from those in events, and can be made numerically efficient due to its ease of parallelization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Planck 2013 results. XXII. Constraints on inflation

We analyse the implications of the Planck data for cosmic inflation. The Planck nominal mission temperature anisotropy measurements, combined with the WMAP large-angle polarization, constrain the scalar spectral index to be n s = 0.9603 ± 0.0073, ruling out exact scale invariance at over 5σ. Planck establishes an upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio of r< 0.11 (95% CL). The Planck data thus shrink the space of allowed standard inflationary models, preferring potentials with V "< 0. Exponential potential models, the simplest hybrid inflationary models, and monomial potential models of degree n = 2 do not provide a good fit to the data. Planck does not find statistically significant running of the scalar spectral index, obtaining d n s /dlnk =-0.0134 ± 0.0090. Here, we verify these conclusions through a numerical analysis, which makes no slow-roll approximation, and carry out a Bayesian parameter estimation and model-selection analysis for a number of inflationary models including monomial, natural, and hilltop potentials. For each model, we present the Planck constraints on the parameters of the potential and explore several possibilities for the post-inflationary entropy generation epoch, thus obtaining nontrivial data-driven constraints. We also present a direct reconstruction of the observable range of the inflaton potential. Unless a quartic term is allowed in the potential, we find results consistent with second-order slow-roll predictions. We also investigate whether the primordial power spectrum contains any features. We find that models with a parameterized oscillatory feature improve the fit by Δχ 2 eff &approx; 10 ; however, Bayesian evidence does not prefer these models. We constrain several single-field inflation models with generalized Lagrangians by combining power spectrum data with Planck bounds on f NL . Planck constrains with unprecedented accuracy the amplitude and possible correlation (with the adiabatic mode) of non-decaying isocurvature fluctuations. The fractional primordial contributions of cold dark matter (CDM) isocurvature modes of the types expected in the curvaton and axion scenarios have upper bounds of 0.25% and 3.9% (95% CL), respectively. In models with arbitrarily correlated CDM or neutrino isocurvature modes, an anticorrelated isocurvature component can improve the χ 2 eff by approximately 4 as a result of slightly lowering the theoretical prediction for the &ell; ≳ 40 multipoles relative to the higher multipoles. Nonetheless, the data are consistent with adiabatic initial conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelized probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification for computational energy applications

Here, this paper presents the development and demonstration of massively parallel probabilistic machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source computational platform for parallel finite element and finite volume analyses. In addressing the computational expense and uncertainties inherent in complex multiphysics simulations, this paper integrates Gaussian process (GP) variants, active learning, Bayesian inverse UQ, adaptive forward UQ, Bayesian optimization, evolutionary optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within MOOSE. It also elaborates on the interaction among key MOOSE systems — Sampler, MultiApp, Reporter, and Surrogate — in enabling these capabilities. The modularity offered by these systems enables development of a multitude of probabilistic ML and UQ algorithms in MOOSE. Example code demonstrations include parallel active learning and parallel Bayesian inference via active learning. The impact of these developments is illustrated through five applications relevant to computational energy applications: UQ of nuclear fuel fission product release, using parallel active learning Bayesian inference; very rare events analysis in nuclear microreactors using active learning; advanced manufacturing process modeling using multi-output GPs (MOGPs) and dimensionality reduction; fluid flow using deep GPs (DGPs); and tritium transport model parameter optimization for fusion energy, using batch Bayesian optimization. These capabilities are part of the MOOSE framework.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sequential Bayesian Methods for Analyzing Computer Models

Efficient analysis of computer models is essential for the validation and uncertainty quantification of those models. Surrogate models, and Gaussian processes in particular, are a common and powerful approach to analyzing computer models that treat computer models as a black-box function. Gaussian processes form a Bayesian model over a space of functions that gives a measure of uncertainty about the computer model output at unobserved locations and a framework for sequential sampling. This tutorial will show how to fit Gaussian processes on a series of test functions and apply sequential design techniques to estimate extrema, level sets, and reliabilities of those test functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of process steady state with autoregressive models and Bayesian inference

To improve efficiency, separations engineers will typically design process circuits containing recirculating streams, which mix one or more of the process outputs with the feed material. Doing so can improve efficiency, but will cause a delay in the system reaching steady state conditions until the recirculating load mass flows stabilize. In testing separation circuits, engineers will often test a variety of factors and complete an analysis from sample results. Knowledge of if a process is at steady state, as well as the steady state conditions of a process, is essential for a valid techno-economic analysis. However, the definition of process steady state is often poorly defined, or does not include uncertainty quantification. If the performance of a process operating under two different sets of conditions are compared, an engineer who does not test for steady state or quantify steady state conditions risks producing a faulty analysis. In this work, a Bayesian statistical method for testing if all streams are at steady state is further motivated and then derived. Then after testing for steady state, the same model is used with a prior distribution that enforces a steady state assumption to estimate steady state conditions. Further, these methods were validated in a solvent extraction pilot plant where steady state conditions for all outflows were inferred with uncertainty quantification. Analysis is completed with functions available to the reader as part of the BayesMassBal (V 1.1.0) software package written in R.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS1995

On the uncertainty in single molecule fluorescent lifetime and energy emission measurements

Time-correlated single photon counting has recently been combined with mode-locked picosecond pulsed excitation to measure the fluorescent lifetimes and energy emissions of single molecules in a flow stream. Maximum likelihood (ML) and least square methods agree and are optimal when the number of detected photons is large however, in single molecule fluorescence experiments the number of detected photons can be less than 20, 67% of those can be noise and the detection time is restricted to 10 nanoseconds. Under the assumption that the photon signal and background noise are two independent inhomogeneous poisson processes, we derive the exact joint arrival time probably density of the photons collected in a single counting experiment performed in the presence of background noise. The model obviates the need to bin experimental data for analysis, and makes it possible to analyze formally the effect of background noise on the photon detection experiment using both ML or Bayesian methods. For both methods we derive the joint and marginal probability densities of the fluorescent lifetime and fluorescent emission. the ML and Bayesian methods are compared in an analysis of simulated single molecule fluorescence experiments of Rhodamine 110 using different combinations of expected background nose and expected fluorescence emission. While both the ML or Bayesian procedures perform well for analyzing fluorescence emissions, the Bayesian methods provide more realistic measures of uncertainty in the fluorescent lifetimes. The Bayesian methods would be especially useful for measuring uncertainty in fluorescent lifetime estimates in current single molecule flow stream experiments where the expected fluorescence emission is low. Both the ML and Bayesian algorithms can be automated for applications in molecular biology.

Brown, Emery N.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On the Uncertainty in Single Molecule Fluorescent Lifetime and Energy Emission Measurements

Time-correlated single photon counting has recently been combined with mode-locked picosecond pulsed excitation to measure the fluorescent lifetimes and energy emissions of single molecules in a flow stream. Maximum likelihood (ML) and least squares methods agree and are optimal when the number of detected photons is large, however, in single molecule fluorescence experiments the number of detected photons can be less than 20, 67 percent of those can be noise, and the detection time is restricted to 10 nanoseconds. Under the assumption that the photon signal and background noise are two independent inhomogeneous Poisson processes, we derive the exact joint arrival time probability density of the photons collected in a single counting experiment performed in the presence of background noise. The model obviates the need to bin experimental data for analysis, and makes it possible to analyze formally the effect of background noise on the photon detection experiment using both ML or Bayesian methods. For both methods we derive the joint and marginal probability densities of the fluorescent lifetime and fluorescent emission. The ML and Bayesian methods are compared in an analysis of simulated single molecule fluorescence experiments of Rhodamine 110 using different combinations of expected background noise and expected fluorescence emission. While both the ML or Bayesian procedures perform well for analyzing fluorescence emissions, the Bayesian methods provide more realistic measures of uncertainty in the fluorescent lifetimes. The Bayesian methods would be especially useful for measuring uncertainty in fluorescent lifetime estimates in current single molecule flow stream experiments where the expected fluorescence emission is low. Both the ML and Bayesian algorithms can be automated for applications in molecular biology.

Brown, Emery N.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Hierarchical Model for Bayesian Hypothesis Testing

A common problem in data analysis is testing a point hypothesis. For example, one might test whether or not the mean of a distribution is zero. We describe the standard Bayesian approach, which requires the choice of a width parameter to define a prior distribution for an alternative hypothesis. Standard practice is to choose this width parameter to be the least favorable choice for the original, point hypothesis. This approach, however, is ad-hoc and not informed by the data. We examine this practice in more detail than in previous work by constructing a hierarchical model, where the width parameter is an unknown value subject to inference. This yields a marginal posterior distribution for the width parameter. We then show that using the median of this marginal posterior distribution as the width parameter in the Bayesian comparison between the hypotheses gives results which are very similar to those obtained from the existing approaches. This gives a more rigorous and data-informed justification for the standard practice of choosing a width parameter which is least favorable to the point hypothesis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗