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TO36 Hypersonic Study

Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study. At the request of NASA, Deloitte conducted an independent market study to provide an independent assessment on the economic viability of hypersonic and supersonic air transportation to inform ongoing strategic planning of research areas within the government and industry and to focus on the areas for technology development and vehicle design requirements. The Study was organized into three primary areas of investigation: Defining the Market appetite for high speed air transport, Defining the business cases; and Assessing Barriers in the environment. The market demand was assessed across a range of Mach numbers from Mach 2 to Mach 6 and ticket price elasticity was determined by surveying potential customers, literature reviews and stakeholder and expert interviews for passenger aircraft, private aircraft and cargo markets. The business case analyses assessed potential business cases across a three-dimensional trade space: flight speed (Mach 2-6), passenger capacity (20-200 passengers) and design range (2500-7500 nmi.). By using the SpaceWorks Rosetta model, we were able to assess each combination in the trade space and to determine the steady state Internal Rate of Return (IRR or profit) was our primary figure of merit and allowed us to rank order the business cases to understand the trends and draw conclusions from the complex trade space. Lastly, we assessed other potential barriers to high speed flight. These were determined through literature review and stakeholder/expert interviews. Once these were compiled, we developed an objective scoring system to allow us to determine overall significance and challenge to aspiring market entrants. The majority of the research was conducted between July and December of 2020 and the results compiled and communicated to NASA in the first quarter of calendar year 2021. This report, along with the companion briefing deck, document the summation of our research and serve as a data repository for use by future researchers in government and industry.

hypersonic aircraft↗

Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study

In support of NASA’s evaluation of its future research thrusts for its hypersonics program, NASA commissioned independent studies of the market for commercial hypersonic transportation. SAIC and BryceTech (formerly Bryce Space and Technology) were awarded one of these independent studies to assist NASA in better understanding: (1) the passenger demand for high-speed aviation travel; (2) the pressures on the business case for developing and operating a hypersonic aircraft for the commercial aviation market; and (3) the non-technical (i.e., societal) barriers and challenges, including the steps NASA and the Government could take to overcome those barriers and challenges. Our approach to addressing these three tasks for NASA included modeling future demand and future business operations, considering global air transportation at speeds of Mach 2 to Mach 7. The team forecast premium air travel demand through 2060 and assessed the willingness of passengers of different income and wealth levels to pay to save time on flights between 800 city pairs. With the total addressable market defined, we examined industry-level business case viability for several aircraft speed and range cases. Considering operating and manufacturing costs for routes that could be serviced profitably, as well as typical profitability targets for the aviation industry, we quantified the level of RDT&E funding available to support each business case.

hypersonic aircraft↗

Independent Market Study: Commercial Hypersonic Transportation

In support of NASA’s evaluation of its future research thrusts for its hypersonics program, NASA commissioned independent studies of the market for commercial hypersonic transportation. SAIC and BryceTech (formerly Bryce Space and Technology) were awarded one of these independent studies to assist NASA in better understanding: (1) the passenger demand for high-speed aviation travel; (2) the pressures on the business case for developing and operating a hypersonic aircraft for the commercial aviation market; and (3) the non-technical (i.e., societal) barriers and challenges, including the steps NASA and the Government could take to overcome those barriers and challenges. Our approach to addressing these three tasks for NASA included modeling future demand and future business operations, considering global air transportation at speeds of Mach 2 to Mach 7. The team forecast premium air travel demand through 2060 and assessed the willingness of passengers of different income and wealth levels to pay to save time on flights between 800 city pairs. With the total addressable market defined, we examined industry-level business case viability for several aircraft speed and range cases. Considering operating and manufacturing costs for routes that could be serviced profitably, as well as typical profitability targets for the aviation industry, we quantified the level of RDT&E funding available to support each business case.

hypersonic aircraft↗

The Evolution of Team-X: 25 Years of Concurrent Engineering Design Experience

Established in 1995 in response to NASA’s “Faster, Better, Cheaper” era, Team-X was born from a need to perform rapid space mission design for principal investigator-led competed proposals. The success and sustainability of Team-X over the 25 years that have followed is directly attributable to the Team-X business model and its evolution over time. While dozens of organizations and institutions have emulated the Team-X design process, there are nuances to the Team-X business model that are unique to JPL, and explain why it is different than other concurrent design teams. One of the key components of a business model is the customer segments that are served. Team-X was founded to conduct the Pre-Phase A work necessary to formulate a portfolio of multiple planetary mission concepts, but has since expanded to include the capability to conduct studies for Earth science, astrophysics, and heliophysics missions as well as Human Exploration and Operations missions and space technology development. Team-X delivers value to its clients both in terms of speed and cost. Team-X has also added value by creating teams to enable the development of Instrument and SmallSat Concepts. Value has further been enhanced through a revision of its process for reviews and the addition of pre-design architecting capabilities. Other aspects of the Team-X infrastructure, in addition to study process, have enabled it to succeed for over a quarter century. From our most important resource, the people, our tools, especially for cost estimating, as well as our increasing capable IT infrastructure have contributed to our capability to meet the demands of our clients. The Team-X business model and its evolution over time, position it well for success in the decades to come.

Murphy, Jonathan↗

Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy Annual Report for FY2012

This report presents a summary of ARPA-E's activities during Fiscal Year 2012. ARPA-E issued four new funding solicitations in Fiscal Year 2012 spanning the entire spectrum of energy technologies. ARPA-E awarded $30 million in July 2012 within the Methane Opportunities for Vehicular Energy (MOVE) program, which aims to find cost-effective ways to power passenger cars and other light-duty vehicles with natural gas. In August 2012, $43 million was awarded across two programs for energy storage: the Advanced Management and Protection of Energy Storage Devices (AMPED), which looked at advanced battery management technology, and the Small Business Innovation Research / Small Business Technology Transfer program, which focused on developing new, innovative battery chemistries and designs. Finally in November of 2012, $130 million was awarded in an "OPEN" funding covering 11 technology areas. From February 27 – 29, 2012, ARPA-E hosted the third annual Energy Innovation Summit in National Harbor, Maryland. The Summit brought together leaders and innovators from academia, business, and government to share ideas for developing and deploying the next generation of energy technologies. The event drew over 2,600 attendees from 49 states, Puerto Rico, and 26 countries and featured 107 expert speakers and keynote addresses, including leaders from government, business and academia.

Martin, C.↗

Managing Through Continuous Improvement: If it doesn’t challenge you, it won’t change you

The past 24 months has been one of non-stop continuous improvement – every month, every week, every day, and every hour. It has been filled with continuously re-examining and challenging business systems, work processes, and legacy culture. The journey was difficult, but well worth it. It began by examining the existing conditions in each organization and building the case for change. When we stepped back and looked at our processes, systems, tools, and performance objectively, we realized we were struggling with frequent organizational, resource, and schedule conflicts, work processes that were not well-defined or expert based, project delays were common, management methods were predominantly reactive, advanced planning was limited to the near-term, no integration in scheduling across organizations, limited to no performance metrics to measure and manage performance, and internal and external customers did not feel like we were meeting their quality and performance expectations. It was a wake-up call. Change began at the top with a change leadership with where a new vision, expectations, and commitment were established. Leaving no stone left unturned, every aspect of the business was challenged which opened up communication and exposed the gaps. This was done in a ‘safe’ environment allowing for honest and solution-oriented discussion and action. The leadership team committed to managing through continuous improvement. The organizational structure was realigned to better align scope, responsibilities, execution, and customer focus. Visibility and transparency became the norm as higher levels of leadership and supporting organizations were invited to be part of regular strategy meetings and partnership discussion, effectively opening up the dialogue. This required a tremendous amount of trust and faith in a short period of time. Health assessments were conducted on each organization with specific lines of inquiry. These self-assessments helped to identify better define the scope of the organization and where targeted improvements were needed. Frequent organizational reviews were implemented to answer three fundamental questions: 1) What is your organization paid to do (scope)?, 2) How does your organization, or you, demonstrate that you are doing the job effectively?, and 3) What are you doing to improve your performance? To answer the first question, leaders defined the scope of the organization. Leaders were required to provide a path forward, with specific actions, where performance was not at expected levels internally at first and then from the stakeholders. Where business processes were not clearly understood, process maps were developed to provide this clarity for both those performing the work and those utilizing the process – the customers. To help answer the second question, numerous automated or semi-automated real-time, dynamic performance metrics were developed and implement to help leaders gain the visibility and demonstrate performance in six areas of operational excellence: safety, security, quality, effectiveness, productivity, and sustainability. Analysis of the performance provided windows of transparency and trends of work performance, work delays, cycle times, utilization, and much more that revealed many areas of improvement that were either not visible or desired to be visible. At the same time, they provided real-time progress which generated initial performance improvements by just beginning to measure. To address the third question, where systems did not support effectiveness of an existing or new process, then systems and tools were developed and implemented to drive the right behaviors and reinforce the processes. Tools and metrics were one of the major catalysts for culture shift and change. Risk assessments were leveraged into continuous improvement strategies, plans, and schedules. Targeted initiatives were identified and performed. Change and improvement was not, and is not, without significant and common challenges including limited/fixed budgets, resource availability, data access, natural resistance to change, and numerous other reasons or excuses – we called them ‘off-ramps’ and began to close them one-by-one. The results and outputs were significant and impactful in each organization and across the business with increased productivity, efficiency, visibility, accountability, management, and performance. Stakeholder satisfaction also increased. Cost and time savings allowed to more continuous improvement efforts to be performed. The effort clearly provided clear and measurable return on investment and value. Efforts that once seemed impossible, not feasible, or not achievable were performed. Decades-long issues were solved. ‘Impossible things are simply those which so far have never been done’ said Elbert Hubbard. So what will the next year be for you and your organization? Are you satisfied with the ‘same ‘ol, same ‘ol?’ Will you fall into the complacency trap and believe that change is too difficult, too expensive, and not necessary (or any number of possible excuses) or will you make this year your year or continuous improvement (and every year thereafter…)? Remember – what you do today can improve all your tomorrows’ (Ralph Marston).

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Adapting Dismantling and Decommissioning Strategies to a Variety of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities - 12237

AREVA has accumulated over 20 years of experience in managing and operating fuel cycle facilities Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) projects of many different types and a variety of scales, both as facility owner (at La Hague for example) and as prime contractor to external customers such as the French Atomic Energy Commission (at Marcoule). A specific Business Unit was created in 2008 to capitalize on this experience and to concentrate - in one division - the specific skills required to be successful and cost effective in decommissioning projects. Indeed one of the key lessons learned in the past decades is that decommissioning is a significantly different business as compared to normal operations of a nuclear facility. Almost all the functions of a project need to be viewed from a different angle, challenged and adapted consequently in order to optimize costs and schedule. Three examples follow to illustrate the point: Safety management needs to take into account the ever changing configuration of a plant under D and D (a quite new situation for the authorities). Production of waste is significantly different in term of volume, activities, conditioning and disposal path. Technology is important but technical issues are often less critical than good management and planning. Further examples and lessons learned are developed through reviewing the projects experience basis. AREVA has a long and vast experience in the cleanup and dismantling of a number of very large and complex nuclear facilities. This effort focused initially on AREVA's own plants and is expanding now to other customers. The setup of a specific Business Unit in 2008 to takeover this business allowed concentration of the skills and the lessons learned in a dedicated division so as to provide the best means to optimize safety, performance, costs and schedules. Indeed transitioning from operations to D and D of a nuclear facility is a quantum leap. The assistance from specialized teams can bring significant cost savings. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development of Preliminary Remediation Goals for Indoor Dust at the Colonie FUSRAP Site - 12273

The Colonie FUSRAP Site is located in the Town of Colonie, Albany County, New York. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is currently addressing environmental contamination associated with the Site under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) process as part of the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Soil remediation activities have been substantially completed at the Colonie FUSRAP Site and its vicinity properties under the FUSRAP. A study unrelated to FUSRAP was recently performed by an independent party to establish the distribution of DU contamination in various media in the environs of the Site. As part of this study, dust samples were collected in residencies and businesses in the immediate vicinity of the Site. These samples were collected in non-living areas such as basement window sills and garages. Many of these samples tested positive for DU. An assessment was performed to establish preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) for indoor dust in non-living areas of residential homes and businesses in the vicinity of the Site. The results of this assessment provide estimates of dose-based, carcinogenic risk-based, and noncarcinogenic-based PRGs derived from a hypothetical exposure scenario with reasonable levels of conservatism. Ultimately, the PRGs will be compared to results of dust sampling and analyses in residences and businesses in proximity of the Site to determine whether a response action is appropriate. This assessment estimates PRGs for DU contaminated dust in non-living areas of residences in the vicinity of the Colonie FUSRAP site based on a reasonably conservative exposure scenario. Estimated PRGs based on residential receptors are considered to be conservatively representative of workers in nearby businesses based on the considerably longer exposure duration of residents relative to workers. This assessment provides reasonably conservative estimates of PRGs for DU contaminated dust in non-living areas within residences in the vicinity of the Site. It should be noted that the PRGs include hypothetical exposures resulting from activities in both the living areas and non-living areas of a residence. The PRGs are derived and presented in terms of DU dust concentration in non-living areas to facilitate comparison to results of a planned Site Investigation that will characterize concentrations of DU in dust in non-living areas. It is important to recognize that the exposure assumptions used to derive these PRGs are based on average dust DU concentrations in non-living areas. It is inappropriate to compare these PRGs to the dust DU concentration in an isolated small area. The ongoing Site Investigation addresses this consideration and is designed to provide reasonable estimates of average dust DU concentrations in non-living areas of vicinity properties. In order to accomplish this, sampling is conducted in accordance with EPA Guidance for the Sampling and Analysis of Lead in Indoor Residential Dust for Use in the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model, (EPA 2008), which specifically addresses estimating average contaminant concentrations in dust. Four (4) large-area samples are collected from each VP in accordance with this guidance. It is anticipated that the results of the Site Investigation will be used in conjunction with the results of this assessment, and/or subsequent assessments, to establish whether or not a response action is appropriate. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A decision support tool for e-waste recycling operations using the hen-and-chicks bio-inspired optimization metaheuristic

E-waste from end-of-life electrical and electronic devices is one of the fastest growing waste streams from households and businesses. E-waste recycling yields environmental sustainability and economic benefits. Due to continuous changes in e-waste types and compositions, recycling businesses face challenges to optimize their operational configuration to achieve better economic and environmental performance. To help e-waste recyclers mitigate this problem, we have developed a modular decision support tool called the Comprehensive Manufacturing Assessment Tool (CMAT) that can simulate both e-waste recycling operations and economics. This tool can give valuable insights regarding the profitability of the entire operation and different e-waste types. In addition, a new bio-inspired metaheuristic optimization algorithm, hen-and-chicks optimization (HACO), was developed to assign manpower to different workstations to maximize operational efficiencies. According to the results of our case study, laptops, desktops, and computer peripherals are the three electronic waste products that produce the most profit. Our examination of the sensitivity of material prices shows that the price of steel has the most significant influence on total profit, because it is the most widely used material in the majority of electronic devices. We have released the decision support tool as open-source software under a general public license. It could be customized for other recycling industries beyond e-waste to achieve business sustainability by making their operations more efficient.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ohio Advanced Energy Manufacturing Center (OAEMC)

The program goal of the Ohio Advanced Energy Manufacturing Center (OAEMC) is to support advanced energy manufacturing and to create responsive manufacturing clusters that will support the production of advanced energy and energy-efficient products to help ensure the nation's energy and environmental security. This goal cuts across a number of existing industry segments critical to the nation's future. Many of the advanced energy businesses are starting to make the transition from technology development to commercial production. Historically, this transition from laboratory prototypes through initial production for early adopters to full production for mass markets has taken several years. Developing and implementing manufacturing technology to enable production at a price point the market will accept is a key step. Since these start-up operations are configured to advance the technology readiness of the core energy technology, they have neither the expertise nor the resources to address manufacturing readiness issues they encounter as the technology advances toward market entry. Given the economic realities of today's business environment, finding ways to accelerate this transition can make the difference between success and failure for a new product or business. The advanced energy industry touches a wide range of industry segments that are not accustomed to working together in complex supply chains to serve large markets such as automotive and construction. During its first three years, the Center has catalyzed the communication between companies and industry groups that serve the wide range of advanced energy markets. The Center has also found areas of common concern, and worked to help companies address these concerns on a segment or industry basis rather than having each company work to solve common problems individually. EWI worked with three industries through public-private partnerships to sew together disparate segments helping to promote overall industry health. To aid the overall advanced energy industry, EWI developed and launched an Ohio chapter of the non-profit Advanced Energy Economy. In this venture, Ohio joins with six other states including Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont to help promote technologies that deliver energy that is affordable, abundant and secure. In a more specific arena, EWI's advanced energy group collaborated with the EWI-run Nuclear Fabrication Consortium to promote the nuclear supply chain. Through this project EWI has helped bring the supply chain up to date for the upcoming period of construction, and assisted them in understanding the demands for the next generation of facilities now being designed. In a more targeted manner, EWI worked with 115 individual advanced energy companies that are attempting to bring new technology to market. First, these interactions helped EWI develop an awareness of issues common to companies in different advanced energy sectors. By identifying and addressing common issues, EWI helps companies bring technology to market sooner and at a lower cost. These visits also helped EWI develop a picture of industry capability. This helped EWI provide companies with contacts that can supply commercial solutions to their new product development challenges. By providing assistance in developing supply chain partnerships, EWI helped companies bring their technology to market faster and at a lower cost than they might have been able to do by themselves. Finally, at the most granular level EWI performed dedicated research and development on new manufacturing processes for advanced energy. During discussions with companies participating in advanced energy markets, several technology issues that cut across market segments were identified. To address some of these issues, three crosscutting technology development projects were initiated and completed with Center support. This included reversible welds for batteries and high temperature heat exchangers. It also included a novel advanced weld trainer that EWI has recently commercialized.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Service Quality Assessment for NASA's Deep Space Network: No Longer a Luxury

When NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN) was established almost a half century ago, the concept of computer-based service delivery was impractical or infeasible due to the state of information technology As a result, the interface the DSN exposes to its customers tends to be equipment-centric, lacking a clear demarcation between the DSN and the mission operation systems (MOS) of its customers. As the number of customers has continued to increase, the need to improve efficiency and minimize costs has grown. This growth has been the impetus for a DSN transformation from an equipment-forrent provider to a provider of standard services. Service orientation naturally leads to requirements for service management, including proactive measurement of service quality and service levels as well as the efficiency of internal processes and the performance of service provisioning systems. DSN System Engineering has surveyed industry offerings to determine if commercial successes in decision support and Business Intelligence (BI) solutions can be applied to the DSN. A pilot project was initiated, and subsequently executed to determine the feasibility of repurposing a commercial Business Intelligence platform for engineering analysis in conjunction with the platform's intended business reporting and analysis functions.

Operations Efficiency↗

Resources for Homeowners: Home Efficiency Upgrades

A fact sheet to support small business building contractors in communicating with homeowners about potential benefits of home efficiency strategies and suggestions for navigating home upgrades. This work was developed under the Building Business Network (B-Biz) program, which aims to improve adoption of high-performance building technology solutions by collaborating with organizations that support small business contractors that provide and service high-performance building technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Electro-chemical arsenic remediation: Field trials in West Bengal

Millions of people in rural South Asia are exposed to high levels of arsenic through groundwater used for drinking. Many deployed arsenic remediation technologies quickly fail because they are not maintained, repaired, accepted, or affordable. It is therefore imperative that arsenic remediation technologies be evaluated for their ability to perform within a sustainable and scalable business model that addresses these challenges. We present field trial results of a 600 L Electro-Chemical Arsenic Remediation (ECAR) reactor operating over 3.5 months in West Bengal. These results are evaluated through the lens of a community scale micro-utility business model as a potential sustainable and scalable safe water solution for rural communities in South Asia. We demonstrate ECAR's ability to consistently reduce arsenic concentrations of ~266 μg/L to <5 μg/L in real groundwater, simultaneously meeting the international standards for iron and aluminum in drinking water. ECAR operating costs (amortized capital plus consumables) are estimated as $0.83-$1.04/m 3 under realistic conditions. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results against the constraints of a sustainable and scalable business model to argue that ECAR is a promising technology to help provide a clean water solution in arsenic-affected areas of South Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A comparative assessment of waste incinerators in the UK

Highlights: • We evaluate operational municipal solid waste incinerators in the UK. • The supply chain of four case study plants are examined and compared in detail. • Technical, financial and operational data has been gathered for the four plants. • We suggest the best business practices for waste incinerators. • Appropriate strategy choices are the major difficulties for waste to energy plants. - Abstract: The uptake in Europe of Energy from Waste (EfW) incinerator plants has increased rapidly in recent years. In the UK, 25 municipal waste incinerators with energy recovery are now in operation; however, their waste supply chains and business practices vary significantly. With over a hundred more plant developments being considered it is important to establish best business practices for ensuring efficient environmental and operational performance. By reviewing the 25 plants we identify four suitable case study plants to compare technologies (moving grate, fluidised bed and rotary kiln), plant economics and operations. Using data collected from annual reports and through interviews and site visits we provide recommendations for improving the supply chain for waste incinerators and highlight the current issues and challenges faced by the industry. We find that plants using moving grate have a high availability of 87–92%. However, compared to the fluidised bed and rotary kiln, quantities of bottom ash and emissions of hydrogen chloride and carbon monoxide are high. The uptake of integrated recycling practices, combined heat and power, and post incineration non-ferrous metal collections needs to be increased among EfW incinerators in the UK. We conclude that one of the major difficulties encountered by waste facilities is the appropriate selection of technology, capacity, site, waste suppliers and heat consumers. This study will be of particular value to EfW plant developers, government authorities and researchers working within the sector of waste management.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Non-invasive authentication of mail packages using nuclear quadrupole resonance spectroscopy

The international postal network is one of the most widely used methods for correspondence throughout the world. Most postal traffic across the globe consists of legitimate interpersonal, business-consumer, and business-business communications. However, the global postal system is also utilized for criminal activity. In particular, it is often utilized to ship and distribute contraband, including illegal psychoactive drugs such as fentanyl and heroin, to consumers. Existing technological solutions are capable of identifying synthetic opioids and other illegal drugs within packages, but are accompanied by several disadvantages that make them unsuitable for large-scale authentication of international mail traffic. This paper presents a novel method for non-invasive authentication of mail packages that overcomes these challenges. The approach uses nuclear quadrupole resonance (NQR) spectroscopy to detect and quantify the presence of known active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) within the package. It has been experimentally demonstrated using a bench top prototype. Test results from a variety of package types demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed authentication approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Financial-technical co-design for capital-intensive, resource-responsive energy systems

Because of their capital-intensive operation, wind energy systems that are competitive in terms of the cost of the energy that they produce lead to risk-reward trade-offs that make their business cases less favorable than those of conventional energy generation technologies. However, wind energy systems tend to be designed to maximize energy production or minimize cost of energy rather than to maximize their business cases. In this work, we attempt to exploit designs specifically tailored to business cases. We develop a novel framework for analyzing energy systems that ties their design variables to monthly operating incomes using simple models and historical hourly market and resource data. Using this approach, we demonstrate that for a wind site with abundant wind resource in the California Independent System Operator market, we can control the trade-off between mean and 5th percentile monthly returns by choosing the specific power of the turbine at a fixed modeled initial capital cost. Our framework gives a measure of the risk-reward spectrum of energy generation assets that could be built at a given site with respect to the sub-annual resource/market variation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling Grid Data Flows for Transmission and Distribution Operations: Review, Design, Next Steps

Operational scenarios of the power grids grow multifold to accommodate the diverse needs of both the utilities and end consumers, and the various other stakeholders in-between. To comprehensively model and apply analytics to support objectives and business functions of grid sectors, a reliable approach to characterize and design data flows is crucial. The flows bridge business functions with communications protocols, stakeholders such as the grid actors, and data interfaces comprising different data objects. Additionally, constraints applied to the flow such as cybersecurity, trust, privacy, and ownership among others intersect these entities, requiring the delineation of their interactions under different scenarios. This paper aims to not only highlight relevant research in the space of grid data flows, but also proposes, for the transmission-distribution sector, a novel modeling approach that marries the aforementioned entities: objectives, business functions, data interfaces, communication protocols, data stakeholders, and flow constraints. It elaborates on the design philosophy and the significance of each entity within the model and applies it to an example function of fault location, isolation and service restoration (FLISR). Finally, the next steps to extend the application of this data flow model for other practical operational scenarios are discussed.

Sundararajan, Aditya [ORNL] (ORCID:000000033577854↗

Considerations for Introducing Artificial Intelligence into Nuclear Power Plants

Advanced computational tools and techniques such as artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) can transform the nuclear power industry. This is necessary given that the economic viability of the existing fleet is in jeopardy and its labor-centric approach to operations and maintenance. Currently, AI/ML research is being undertaken for reactor system design and analysis including fault and accident prognosis, nuclear risk analysis such as plant safety and security evaluation, and plant operations and maintenance including predictive maintenance. Applications include both existing and advanced reactor technologies with the aim of improving operational and business efficiencies. Most every aspect of the organization can benefit, from instrumentation and control, to work planning, to human-machine interactions and business management. AI/ML in nuclear can simplify complex problems and produce more effective decision-making. Nonetheless, careful consideration must be given to the implementation of an AI/ML initiative. The aims of this research are to 1) review barriers to AI/ML adoption within the nuclear power industry, and 2) suggest potential solutions. These barriers are organized along five distinct categories (Figure 1) that are interconnected. The first are historical barriers that track the industry’s development over the decades including worldwide nuclear events that shaped public perceptions. The resulting federal scrutiny and intense safety culture that emerged are discussed. Technical barriers to AI/ML adoption are considerable, and include data privacy concerns, data governance, and the current lack of AI/ML expert knowledge at the plants. The main business case barrier remains cost, but an absence of an industry-wide vision and wide-scale adoption also produces reluctance. Stakeholder readiness is reviewed with special attention given to regulatory readiness. The 5-year strategic plan for AI readiness recently published by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is highlighted. Last, adoption barriers at the user level are addressed including the importance of user experience and explainable AI. The AI adoption barriers described here are inter-related and ideally should be addressed in a holistic fashion.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗