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The importance of properties in modeling

Casting and welding of superalloys, stainless steel and titanium alloys are processes which can be improved through modeling of heat flow, fluid flow, residual stress development, and microstructural evolution. These simulations require inputs of thermophysical data, some of which involves the partially or totally liquid state. In particular, these processes involve melting, flow in the liquid, and solidification. Modeling of such processes can lead to an improved understanding of defects such as shrinkage, inclusions, cracks, incomplete filling (or penetration), macrosegregation, improper grain structure, and deviations from dimensional specifications. Effective modeling can shorten process development time and improve quality. An approach to these problems is to develop efficient models; validate through correlations with thermal, distortion, and microstructural data; run parametric studies; extract knowledge based rules; and apply to adaptive closed loop control systems. With the appropriate pre- and post-processing, such analyses can be made 'user friendly'. This would include graphical user interfaces as well as realistic images and color maps. In such form, these models can be used for sensitivity analyses, which are useful in defining appropriate sensors and in the development of control strategies. Such modeling can be done at several levels, e.g., the MARO level, modeling large scale phenomena such as heat and fluid flow or material deformation; the MICRO level, modeling the development of dendrites, grains or precipitates; or at the NANO level, modeling point defects, dislocations, stacking faults, etc. There are many computational issues associated with these simulations, e.g. computational efficiency and accuracy. In addition, there are many materials issues, not the least of which is the availability of accurate high temperature thermophysical data for complex alloys. This would include latent heat of fusion, temperature dependent heat capacity and thermal conductivity (for liquid and solid), viscosity, surface tension, thermal expansion, mechanical properties, etc. Preliminary data is frequently gathered from the literature; however, this is often not available for modern alloys. If additional data are required, measurements can be used; however, these are costly, time consuming and can be erroneous due to a lack of testing standards or impure materials. Microstructural predictors can be extracted from thermal information, e.g. cooling rate and thermal gradient; the prediction of microstructure is dependent on solidus and liquidus temperature, mushy zone permeability, the solidification curve, volume changes, phase transformations, alloying effects (such as surface tension or viscosity), mold/metal reactions, metal/environment reactions, etc. Defect maps may be needed to predict the onset of shrinkage, hot cracking or 'freckling'. Constants may be needed for stress relaxation, dendrite coarsening, vaporization, etc. Visualization was used as a tool to better comprehend complex data sets associated with the analysis of directional solidification (including crystal growth) and welding. Examples include not only isotherms, but also cooling rate, growth rate and thermal gradient. The latter two are not single valued scalars, but rather time and space dependent vector fields. Efficient models were developed for both casting and welding to predict heat flow and the relationship to dendrite and grain growth. These codes include many of the non-linear effects, e.g. radiation, which dominate these processes. The home-built FDM code(s) were designed to be useful not only to the scientist, but also to the process engineer. Special output can be requested to compare directly to experimental data. Visualization procedures were developed to visualize critical results, e.g. fusion zone width at the surface opposite that where the arc is applied ('penetration'). Both elaborate and simplified distortion analyses were carried out. It is clear that extensive mechanical property data are critical in order to accurately predict residual stress patterns. A scheme is currently being developed to integrate these modeling tools into a set of control algorithms; however, the success of this approach is critically dependent on the availability of accurate high temperature thermophysical data.

Giamei, A. F.↗

Flexible control techniques for a lunar base

The fundamental elements found in every terrestrial control system can be employed in all lunar applications. These elements include sensors which measure physical properties, controllers which acquire sensor data and calculate a control response, and actuators which apply the control output to the process. The unique characteristics of the lunar environment will certainly require the development of new control system technology. However, weightlessness, harsh atmospheric conditions, temperature extremes, and radiation hazards will most significantly impact the design of sensors and actuators. The controller and associated control algorithms, which are the most complex element of any control system, can be derived in their entirety from existing technology. Lunar process control applications -- ranging from small-scale research projects to full-scale processing plants -- will benefit greatly from the controller advances being developed today. In particular, new software technology aimed at commercial process monitoring and control applications will almost completely eliminate the need for custom programs and the lengthy development and testing cycle they require. The applicability of existing industrial software to lunar applications has other significant advantages in addition to cost and quality. This software is designed to run on standard hardware platforms and takes advantage of existing LAN and telecommunications technology. Further, in order to exploit the existing commercial market, the software is being designed to be implemented by users of all skill levels -- typically users who are familiar with their process, but not necessarily with software or control theory. This means that specialized technical support personnel will not need to be on-hand, and the associated costs are eliminated. Finally, the latest industrial software designed for the commercial market is extremely flexible, in order to fit the requirements of many types of processing applications with little or no customization. This means that lunar process control projects will not be delayed by unforeseen problems or last minute process modifications. The software will include all of the tools needed to adapt to virtually any changes. In contrast to other space programs which required the development of tremendous amounts of custom software, lunar-based processing facilities will benefit from the use of existing software technology which is being proven in commercial applications on Earth.

Kraus, Thomas W.↗

Overview of SatCORPS Satellite-Derived Cloud and Radiation Retrieval Coverage of ARM Domains

The ARM Climate Research Facility program maintains a number of climatically representative sites, which provide long-term cloud- and climate-monitoring records via ground-based instrumentation. These measurements provide a valuable data record over a localized region, but can be greatly enhanced by use of satellite monitoring. Satellite analyses over larger domains can provide parameters helpful for monitoring climate and evaluating models. The NASA/Langley Cloud group routinely derives such cloud and radiative parameters, from various geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite coverage over ARM sites; the group provides near-realtime analyses covering the 3 ARM fixed sites, as well as the GO-Amazon AMF site. This is accomplished by employing a suite of algorithms including VISST (Visible Infrared Solar Split-Window Technique), SIST (Solar Infrared Split-Window Technique), and SINT (Solar-infrared Infrared Near-Infrared Technique), now collectively called SatCORPS (Satellite Cloud Observations and Radiative Property retrieval System). An overview and catalog of SatCORPS-derived datasets processed for ASR, and available from both the ARM archive and the NASA/Langley Cloud group website, is provided. Specific improvements included in recently added datasets such as GO-Amazon and Azores are highlighted, including an improved cloud-detection mask, as well as improvements in derived Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) SW albedoes and LW fluxes. New narrowband-to-broadband (NB-BB) fits and corrections for improved TOA fluxes are illustrated, including MTSAT-1/CERES Aqua NB-BB fits for the TWPICE field campaign, as well as new fits covering the Azores region which incorporate GERB TOA fluxes (Geostationery Earth Radiation Budget). Finally, validation of the reprocessed SatCORPS datasets is shown.

M M Khader↗

Overview of NASA's MODIS and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) snow-cover Earth System Data Records

Knowledge of the distribution, extent, duration and timing of snowmelt is critical for characterizing the Earth's climate system and its changes. As a result, snow cover is one of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) essential climate variables (ECVs). Consistent, long-term datasets of snow cover are needed to study interannual variability and snow climatology. The NASA snow-cover datasets generated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua spacecraft and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) are NASA Earth System Data Records (ESDR). The objective of the snow-cover detection algorithms is to optimize the accuracy of mapping snow-cover extent (SCE) and to minimize snow-cover detection errors of omission and commission using automated, globally applied algorithms to produce SCE data products. Advancements in snow-cover mapping have been made with each of the four major reprocessings of the MODIS data record, which extends from 2000 to the present. MODIS Collection 6 (C6) and VIIRS Collection 1 (C1) represent the state-of-the-art global snow cover mapping algorithms and products for NASA Earth science. There were many revisions made in the C6 algorithms which improved snow-cover detection accuracy and information content of the data products. These improvements have also been incorporated into the NASA VIIRS snow cover algorithms for C1. Both information content and usability were improved by including the Normalized Snow Difference Index (NDSI) and a quality assurance (QA) data array of algorithm processing flags in the data product, along with the SCE map.The increased data content allows flexibility in using the datasets for specific regions and end-user applications.Though there are important differences between the MODIS and VIIRS instruments (e.g., the VIIRS 375m native resolution compared to MODIS 500 m), the snow detection algorithms and data products are designed to be as similar as possible so that the 16C year MODIS ESDR of global SCE can be extended into the future with the S-NPP VIIRS snow products and with products from future Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) platforms.These NASA datasets are archived and accessible through the NASA Distributed Active Archive Center at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

Earth System Data Record↗

An Analytic Collaborative Framework for the Earth System Observatory

NASA's Earth System Observatory groundbreaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societal relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitigation, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. Central to the ESO vision is the notion of Open-Source Science (OSS), a collaborative culture enabled by technology that promotes the open sharing of data, information, and knowledge aiming to facilitate and accelerate scientific understanding, and the agile development of applications for the benefit of society. The larger vision of an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) calls for integrated Earth science frameworks that mirror the Earth by a proxy digital construct that includes km-scale resolution Earth system models and data assimilation systems along with an integrated set of analytic tools to enable the next generation of science discoveries and evidence-based decision making. The goal of this project is to develop an Analytic Collaborative Framework for ESO missions, based on realistic, science-based observing system simulations and the Program of Record (PoR). Tying it all together is a cloud-based cyberinfrastructure that will enable each uniquely designed satellite in the Earth System Observatory to work in tandem to create a 3D, holistic view of Earth. In this presentation, we lay the technological groundwork for enabling such a vision. Our approach consists of the 3 main interconnected building blocks: 1. Cloud-optimized representative datasets for ESO missions and the PoR to serve as basis for developing and prototyping an Analytic Collaborative Framework. 2. An Algorithm Workbench for enabling experimentation and exploration of synergistic algorithms not only for instruments within a mission, but also including the PoR and other ESO missions. 3. A series of concrete Open-Source Science demonstrations including use cases that span science discovery and end-user applications with direct societal impact. While our ultimate goal is to include all of the main missions comprising the Earth System Observatory, in our initial 2 years we will focus on AOS and SBG, two missions for which specific synergisms have been identified in a recent workshop. In this presentation we will describe our approach and discuss some illustrative examples of our framework.

Arlindo da SIlva↗

An Analytic Collaborative Framework for the Earth System Observatory

NASA's Earth System Observatory groundbreaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societal relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitigation, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. Central to the ESO vision is the notion of Open-Source Science (OSS), a collaborative culture enabled by technology that promotes the open sharing of data, information, and knowledge aiming to facilitate and accelerate scientific understanding, and the agile development of applications for the benefit of society. The larger vision of an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) calls for integrated Earth science frameworks that mirror the Earth by a proxy digital construct that includes km-scale resolution Earth system models and data assimilation systems along with an integrated set of analytic tools to enable the next generation of science discoveries and evidence-based decision making. The goal of this project is to develop an Analytic Collaborative Framework for ESO missions, based on realistic, science-based observing system simulations and the Program of Record (PoR). Tying it all together is a cloud-based cyberinfrastructure that will enable each uniquely designed satellite in the Earth System Observatory to work in tandem to create a 3D, holistic view of Earth. In this presentation, we lay the technological groundwork for enabling such a vision. Our approach consists of the 3 main interconnected building blocks: 1. Cloud-optimized representative datasets for ESO missions and the PoR to serve as basis for developing and prototyping an Analytic Collaborative Framework. 2. An Algorithm Workbench for enabling experimentation and exploration of synergistic algorithms not only for instruments within a mission, but also including the PoR and other ESO missions. 3. A series of concrete Open-Source Science demonstrations including use cases that span science discovery and end-user applications with direct societal impact. While our ultimate goal is to include all of the main missions comprising the Earth System Observatory, in our initial 2 years we will focus on AOS and SBG, two missions for which specific synergisms have been identified in a recent workshop. In this presentation we will describe our approach and discuss some illustrative examples of our framework.

Arlindo da SIlva↗

Automated Tracking of Shallow Maritime Clouds on Geostationary Imagery to Extract Lifecycle Characteristics

Shallow moist convection is ubiquitous throughout the tropics and represents a key player in boundary layer processes. Satellites have provided many statistics on shallow clouds, such as size, structure, and geographical coverage, from static views of recurring cloud fields. But determining why certain cloud features appear and persist for different periods requires a time-evolving view of their behaviors. Geostationary satellites provide a unique opportunity to follow the time evolution of individual convective features, given their enhanced spatial and temporal sampling. A cloud-tracking tool was developed to identify properties of cloud lifecycle from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2EX) field campaign of 2019. The mission conducted intensive sampling of shallow cumulus in the West Pacific Ocean, in tandem with Rapid Scan imagery from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) Himawari-8 satellite. Shallow cumulus was segmented according to thresholds in 0.5-km visible reflectance and with blurring techniques. Despite being limited to daytime hours, the segmentations yielded the best resolution possible for capturing cloud initiation and decay. The tracking procedure is based on a computer vision package that includes Kalman filters for motion prediction, object overlap search, and the Hungarian (or Kuhn-Munkres) matching algorithm for track designation. AHI radiances available within the tracked cloud boundaries are assembled to form individual spectral histories. The resulting catalog provides thousands of cloud histories for domains measuring only a few degrees in latitude and longitude. We present an overview of the cloud-tracking tool, strategies to identify development stages from cloud tracks, and preliminary results that document cumulus lifecycle properties from satellite. The application of AHI 0.5-km reflectance has both strengths and limitations when attempting to track lifecycles of the smallest resolvable clouds. We show that by aggregating cloud tracks from a few case studies of CAMP2EX, we can discern differences in cloud lifetime and development according to ensembles selected from areas of interest. The results demonstrate an ability to quantify lifetimes and assess rates of change in cloud characteristics that are likely controlled by the surrounding environment and meteorology.

Cloud Tracking↗

An investigation of a mathematical model of an optically pumped Ti(3+):Al2O3 laser system

During the last several years, solid state lasers were developed that have the potential for meeting rigorous performance requirements for space-based remote sensing of the atmosphere. In order to design a stable and efficient laser and to understand the effect on laser output of changes in the physical and design parameters, an understanding of the development of the dynamical processes of the laser is necessary. Typically, the dynamical processes in a laser system are investigated via rate equations describing the evolution of the occupancy in the electronic levels and of the photon density in the laser cavity. There are two approaches to this type of study. Most often, for the sake of simplicity, the spatial variations of the dynamic variables in the laser system are disregarded and the mathematical model consists of a system of first order nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODE). The second approach is to take into account both spatial and temporal variations in the dynamic variables in the laser cavity. The resulting model consists of a first order semilinear system of partial differential equations (PDE). The model which was studied was studied was generic in the sense that it was a four-level laser system, but the parameters used in the numerical study were specific to Titanium-doped sapphire. For simplicity, a constant, spatially uniform pumping scheme was considered. In addition, a simplification of the model was made so that it treats a single lasing wavelength with a narrow bandwidth. The purpose was to investigate both versions of the mathematical model and to determine whether the numerical solutions are similar both qualitatively and quantitatively. The systems of ordinary differential equations were solved numerically using a Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg algorithm which was very efficient for typical values of the physical parameters. A numerical scheme, based on the Modified Euler method, for computing solutions to the system of partial differential equations was developed and implemented. The PDE model was solved numerically at the expense of greatly increased computer time.

Roberts, Lila F.↗

Quality Assessment of Landsat Surface Reflectance Products Using MODIS Data

Surface reflectance adjusted for atmospheric effects is a primary input for land cover change detection and for developing many higher level surface geophysical parameters. With the development of automated atmospheric correction algorithms, it is now feasible to produce large quantities of surface reflectance products using Landsat images. Validation of these products requires in situ measurements, which either do not exist or are difficult to obtain for most Landsat images. The surface reflectance products derived using data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), however, have been validated more comprehensively. Because the MODIS on the Terra platform and the Landsat 7 are only half an hour apart following the same orbit, and each of the 6 Landsat spectral bands overlaps with a MODIS band, good agreements between MODIS and Landsat surface reflectance values can be considered indicators of the reliability of the Landsat products, while disagreements may suggest potential quality problems that need to be further investigated. Here we develop a system called Landsat-MODIS Consistency Checking System (LMCCS). This system automatically matches Landsat data with MODIS observations acquired on the same date over the same locations and uses them to calculate a set of agreement metrics. To maximize its portability, Java and open-source libraries were used in developing this system, and object-oriented programming (OOP) principles were followed to make it more flexible for future expansion. As a highly automated system designed to run as a stand-alone package or as a component of other Landsat data processing systems, this system can be used to assess the quality of essentially every Landsat surface reflectance image where spatially and temporally matching MODIS data are available. The effectiveness of this system was demonstrated using it to assess preliminary surface reflectance products derived using the Global Land Survey (GLS) Landsat images for the 2000 epoch. As surface reflectance likely will be a standard product for future Landsat missions, the approach developed in this study can be adapted as an operational quality assessment system for those missions.

Landsat↗

Methodology to Define Delivery Accuracy Under Current Day ATC Operations

In order to enable arrival management concepts and solutions in a NextGen environment, ground- based sequencing and scheduling functions have been developed to support metering operations in the National Airspace System. These sequencing and scheduling algorithms as well as tools are designed to aid air traffic controllers in developing an overall arrival strategy. The ground systems being developed will support the management of aircraft to their Scheduled Times of Arrival (STAs) at flow-constrained meter points. This paper presents a methodology for determining the undelayed delivery accuracy for current day air traffic control operations. This new method analyzes the undelayed delivery accuracy at meter points in order to understand changes of desired flow rates as well as enabling definition of metrics that will allow near-future ground automation tools to successfully achieve desired separation at the meter points. This enables aircraft to meet their STAs while performing high precision arrivals. The research presents a possible implementation that would allow delivery performance of current tools to be estimated and delivery accuracy requirements for future tools to be defined, which allows analysis of Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) accuracy for Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) and the FAA's Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). TMA is a deployed system that generates scheduled time-of-arrival constraints for en- route air traffic controllers in the US. This new method of automated analysis provides a repeatable evaluation of the delay metrics for current day traffic, new releases of TMA, implementation of different tools, and across different airspace environments. This method utilizes a wide set of data from the Operational TMA-TBFM Repository (OTTR) system, which processes raw data collected by the FAA from operational TMA systems at all ARTCCs in the nation. The OTTR system generates daily reports concerning ATC status, intent and actions. Due to its availability, ease of use, and vast collection of data across several airspaces it was determined that the OTTR data set would be the best method to utilize moving forward with this analysis. The particular variables needed for further analysis were determined along with the necessary OTTR reports, by working closely with the repository team additional analysis reports were developed that provided key ETA and STA information at the freeze horizon. One major benefit of the OTTR data is that using the correct reports the data across several airports could be analyzed over large periods of time. The OTTR data processes the TBFM data daily and is stored in various formats across several airspaces. This allowed us to develop our own parsing methods and raw data processing that would not rely on other computationally expensive tools that perform more in depth analysis of similar sets of data. The majority of this work consisted of the development of the ability to filter flights to create a subset of flights that could be considered undelayed, which is defined as a flight at the freeze horizon with an ETA and STA difference that was minimal or close to zero. This was a broad method that allowed the consideration of a large data set which consisted of all the traffic across a two month period in 2013, the hottest and coldest months, arriving into four airports: George Bush Intercontinental, Denver International, Los Angeles International, and Phoenix Sky Harbor.

delivery accuracy↗

Towards a Comprehensive Computational Simulation System for Turbomachinery

The objective of this work is to develop algorithms associated with a comprehensive computational simulation system for turbomachinery flow fields. This development is accomplished in a modular fashion. These modules includes grid generation, visualization, network, simulation, toolbox, and flow modules. An interactive grid generation module is customized to facilitate the grid generation process associated with complicated turbomachinery configurations. With its user-friendly graphical user interface, the user may interactively manipulate the default settings to obtain a quality grid within a fraction of time that is usually required for building a grid about the same geometry with a general-purpose grid generation code. Non-Uniform Rational B-Spline formulations are utilized in the algorithm to maintain geometry fidelity while redistributing grid points on the solid surfaces. Bezier curve formulation is used to allow interactive construction of inner boundaries. It is also utilized to allow interactive point distribution. Cascade surfaces are transformed from three-dimensional surfaces of revolution into two-dimensional parametric planes for easy manipulation. Such a transformation allows these manipulated plane grids to be mapped to surfaces of revolution by any generatrix definition. A sophisticated visualization module is developed to al-low visualization for both grid and flow solution, steady or unsteady. A network module is built to allow data transferring in the heterogeneous environment. A flow module is integrated into this system, using an existing turbomachinery flow code. A simulation module is developed to combine the network, flow, and visualization module to achieve near real-time flow simulation about turbomachinery geometries. A toolbox module is developed to support the overall task. A batch version of the grid generation module is developed to allow portability and has been extended to allow dynamic grid generation for pitch changing turbomachinery configurations. Various applications with different characteristics are presented to demonstrate the success of this system.

Shih, Ming-Hsin↗

Prioritized LT Codes

The original Luby Transform (LT) coding scheme is extended to account for data transmissions where some information symbols in a message block are more important than others. Prioritized LT codes provide unequal error protection (UEP) of data on an erasure channel by modifying the original LT encoder. The prioritized algorithm improves high-priority data protection without penalizing low-priority data recovery. Moreover, low-latency decoding is also obtained for high-priority data due to fast encoding. Prioritized LT codes only require a slight change in the original encoding algorithm, and no changes at all at the decoder. Hence, with a small complexity increase in the LT encoder, an improved UEP and low-decoding latency performance for high-priority data can be achieved. LT encoding partitions a data stream into fixed-sized message blocks each with a constant number of information symbols. To generate a code symbol from the information symbols in a message, the Robust-Soliton probability distribution is first applied in order to determine the number of information symbols to be used to compute the code symbol. Then, the specific information symbols are chosen uniform randomly from the message block. Finally, the selected information symbols are XORed to form the code symbol. The Prioritized LT code construction includes an additional restriction that code symbols formed by a relatively small number of XORed information symbols select some of these information symbols from the pool of high-priority data. Once high-priority data are fully covered, encoding continues with the conventional LT approach where code symbols are generated by selecting information symbols from the entire message block including all different priorities. Therefore, if code symbols derived from high-priority data experience an unusual high number of erasures, Prioritized LT codes can still reliably recover both high- and low-priority data. This hybrid approach decides not only "how to encode" but also "what to encode" to achieve UEP. Another advantage of the priority encoding process is that the majority of high-priority data can be decoded sooner since only a small number of code symbols are required to reconstruct high-priority data. This approach increases the likelihood that high-priority data is decoded first over low-priority data. The Prioritized LT code scheme achieves an improvement in high-priority data decoding performance as well as overall information recovery without penalizing the decoding of low-priority data, assuming high-priority data is no more than half of a message block. The cost is in the additional complexity required in the encoder. If extra computation resource is available at the transmitter, image, voice, and video transmission quality in terrestrial and space communications can benefit from accurate use of redundancy in protecting data with varying priorities.

Woo, Simon S.↗

Decadal Seasonal Shifts of Precipitation and Temperature in TRMM and AIRS Data

We present results from an analysis of seasonal phase shifts in the global precipitation and surface temperatures. We use data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Multi-satellite Precipitation Algorithm (TMPA), and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua satellite, all hosted at NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). We explore the information content and data usability by first aggregating daily grids from the entire records of both missions to pentad (5-day) series which are then processed using Singular Value Decomposition approach. A strength of this approach is the normalized principal components that can then be easily converted from real to complex time series. Thus, we can separate the most informative, the seasonal, components and analyze unambiguously for potential seasonal phase drifts. TMPA and AIRS records represent correspondingly 20 and 15 years of data, which allows us to run simple “phase learning†from the first 5 years of records and use it as reference. The most recent 5 years are then phase-compared with the reference. We demonstrate that the seasonal phase of global precipitation and surface temperatures has been stable in the past two decades. However, a small global trend of delayed precipitation, and earlier arrival of surface temperatures seasons, are detectable at 95% confidence level. Larger phase shifts are detectable at regional level, in regions recognizable from the Eigen vectors to having strong seasonal patterns. For instance, in Central North America, including the North American Monsoon region, confident phase shifts of 1-2 days per decade are detected at 95% confidence level. While seemingly symbolic, these shifts are indicative of larger changes in the Earth Climate System. We thus also demonstrate a potential usability scenario of Earth Science Data Records curated at the NASA GES DISC in partnership with Earth Science Missions.

surface temperatures↗

Satellite-Based Evaluation of AeroCom Model Bias in Biomass Burning Regions

Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by −93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.

biomass burning aerosols↗

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Recent Improvements and Verification of A Full Body Model in Opensim

BACKGROUND: The dynamic feasibility [1,2] criterion, that the subject’s Center of Pressure (COP) be located within the Base of Support (BOS) which outlines the feet, has aided in assessing the stability of human motion recorded on earth while performing the recorded tasks in lunar gravity or as countermeasures exercises on a vibration isolation and stabilization system in microgravity. The convex hull of the BOS on the platform under the subject’s feet was estimated using virtual markers on the feet of the scaled subject model. The COP was calculated using the ground reaction forces and moments determined from motion capture data with biomechanical modeling tools [3]. Occasionally, large-amplitude oscillatory spikes or “artifacts” were observed in the subject’s linear and angular momentum derivatives, affecting some COP data derived from motion capture. The purpose of this investigation was to assess and improve the accuracy of model scaling and BOS estimation as well as to determine the efficacy of model adjustments in mitigating artifacts influencing motion capture-derived ground reaction force and COP results. METHODS: To aid evaluation of proposed process and model updates, motion capture data were collected for two subjects during unit test and range of motion trials, lunar tasks, and countermeasures exercise motions. Markers were added to the full body Plug-in Gait marker set [4] during data collection. New markers were placed on the front, back, sides, and top of the head to improve scaling using distances between marker pairs. Medial elbow markers were added to stabilize the upper arm during OpenSim Inverse Kinematics (IK) [5]. Finally, markers were added on the outer edge of the heels and on the outside edges of the first and last toes on each foot. These additional foot markers were made available to test new automated foot scaling techniques and to calculate the error between the subject’s estimated and recorded BOS. The modified unscaled OpenSim Full Body Rajagopal Model [6,7] was adjusted using some previously investigated techniques [8] to mitigate rapid shifts in joint angles occurring during IK, as these were found to cause the spike artifacts observed in subsequent stages of analysis. Since OpenSim models use Euler angles and rotation sequences, the arm axes of rotation were adjusted, and the pelvis order of rotation was changed to minimize the likelihood of encountering “gimbal lock” during common human motion. The model clavicle, arm, elbow, wrist, pelvis, and ankle angle limits were adjusted to better accommodate the full human range of motion seen in exercise and lunar data. The shoulder joint center was calculated using a “pivoting” algorithm [9], and both shoulder joint center and upper arm markers were included during IK to provide additional shoulder stability on a case-by-case basis. The quality of IK results was assessed by three criteria: minimizing error between recorded motion capture markers and model markers, checking for reasonable rates of change in joint angles between fames (i.e., no IK artifacts), and ensuring the absence of spikes in the inertial forces and angular momentum derivatives calculated using a custom OpenSim plugin [10]. RESULTS: The additional markers placed on the subject during data collection allowed the head and feet to be scaled more accurately using distances between new marker pairs. Scaling with BOS markers placed on the subject and removing the limit on subtalar angle resulted in more accurate BOS determination. Unrealistically large changes in joint angles between frames could be reduced by including clavicle, sternum, and medial elbow markers during IK. In cases with large arm ranges of motion, results could be further improved by running IK using medial elbow and virtual shoulder joint center markers. Model adjustments significantly improved the IK results affecting COP calculation and increased the accuracy of BOS estimation.

C A Bell↗

On-line, adaptive state estimator for active noise control

Dynamic characteristics of airframe structures are expected to vary as aircraft flight conditions change. Accurate knowledge of the changing dynamic characteristics is crucial to enhancing the performance of the active noise control system using feedback control. This research investigates the development of an adaptive, on-line state estimator using a neural network concept to conduct active noise control. In this research, an algorithm has been developed that can be used to estimate displacement and velocity responses at any locations on the structure from a limited number of acceleration measurements and input force information. The algorithm employs band-pass filters to extract from the measurement signal the frequency contents corresponding to a desired mode. The filtered signal is then used to train a neural network which consists of a linear neuron with three weights. The structure of the neural network is designed as simple as possible to increase the sampling frequency as much as possible. The weights obtained through neural network training are then used to construct the transfer function of a mode in z-domain and to identify modal properties of each mode. By using the identified transfer function and interpolating the mode shape obtained at sensor locations, the displacement and velocity responses are estimated with reasonable accuracy at any locations on the structure. The accuracy of the response estimates depends on the number of modes incorporated in the estimates and the number of sensors employed to conduct mode shape interpolation. Computer simulation demonstrates that the algorithm is capable of adapting to the varying dynamic characteristics of structural properties. Experimental implementation of the algorithm on a DSP (digital signal processing) board for a plate structure is underway. The algorithm is expected to reach the sampling frequency range of about 10 kHz to 20 kHz which needs to be maintained for a typical active noise control application.

Lim, Tae W.↗

Evolution of the JPSS Ground Project Calibration and Validation System

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) next-generation operational Earth observation Program that acquires and distributes global environmental data from multiple polar-orbiting satellites. The JPSS Program plays a critical role to NOAAs mission to understand and predict changes in weather, climate, oceans, coasts, and space environments, which supports the Nation’s economy and protection of lives and property. The National Aerospace and Atmospheric Administration (NASA) is acquiring and implementing the JPSS, comprised of flight and ground systems on behalf of NOAA. The JPSS satellites are planned to fly in the afternoon orbit and will provide operational continuity of satellite-based observations and products for NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite. To support the JPSS Calibration and Validation (CalVal) node Government Resource for Algorithm Verification, Independent Test, and Evaluation (GRAVITE) services facilitate: Algorithm Integration and Checkout, Algorithm and Product Operational Tuning, Instrument Calibration, Product Validation, Algorithm Investigation, and Data Quality Support and Monitoring. GRAVITE is a mature, deployed system that currently supports the SNPP Mission and has been in operations since SNPP launch. This paper discusses the major re-architecture for Block 2.0 that incorporates SNPP lessons learned, architecture of the system, and demonstrates how GRAVITE has evolved as a system with increased performance. It is now a robust, stable, reliable, maintainable, scalable, and secure system that supports development, test, and production strings, replaces proprietary and custom software, uses open source software, and is compliant with NASA and NOAA standards.

Data Processing↗