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DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Resilience Database for Assessing Microgrid Formation Capability and Enhancing Power Grid Resilience

In the face of increasing frequency of extreme events, enhancing resilience and reliability of energy infrastructure demands innovative solutions. Hydropower, with its inherent generation flexibility and grid-forming capability, offers significant potential for enhancing power grid resilience through the establishment of microgrids. To enable informed decision-making and strategic planning, we present the Hydropower Resilience Database (HRD) that integrates data from various sources such as Oakridge National Laboratory (ORNL) HydroSource, National Inventory of Dams, and US Western Grid database. By integrating relevant information on hydropower plant characteristics, including dams, reservoirs, and connected electrical grid, this resource enables hydropower plant owners, utilities, and community stakeholders to identify and evaluate the feasibility of using hydropower resources in microgrids to support nearby communities and critical infrastructure in various challenging scenarios. Using HRD, a set of metrics are evaluated to quantify the capability of hydropower plants to support essential microgrid functions. An interactive tool is developed using ArcGIS, enabling the visualization and analysis using HRD. Our research contributes to strategic planning efforts for fortifying energy infrastructure, ensuring reliable power supply during disruptions, and advancing the development of robust and resilient energy systems in regions susceptible to grid vulnerabilities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2021

Sustainable Use of Groundwater May Dramatically Reduce Irrigated Production of Maize, Soybean, and Wheat

Groundwater extraction in the United States (US) is unsustainable, making it essential to understand the impacts of limited water use on irrigated agriculture. To improve this understanding, we integrated a gridded crop model with satellite observations, recharge estimates, and water survey data to assess the effects of sustainable groundwater withdrawals on US irrigated agricultural production. The gridded crop model agrees with satellite-based estimates of evapotranspiration (R2 = 0.68), as well as survey data from the United States Department of Agriculture (R2 = 0.82–0.94 for county-level production and 0.37–0.54 for county-level yield). Using the optimistic assumption that groundwater extraction equals effective aquifer recharge rate, we find that sustainable groundwater use decreases US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively. Using a more conservative assumption of groundwater availability, US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat decreases by 45%, 37%, and 36%, respectively. The wide range of simulated losses is driven by considerable uncertainty in surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as accounting for the many aspects of sustainability. Our results demonstrate the vulnerability of US irrigated agriculture to unsustainable groundwater pumping, highlighting the difficulty of expanding or even maintaining irrigated food production in the face of climate change, population growth, and shifting dietary demands. These findings are based on reducing pumping by fallowing irrigated farmland; however, alternate pumping reduction strategies or technological advances in crop genetics and irrigation could produce different results.

sustainability↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development and Evaluation of Embrittlement Resistant Alloys for Advanced LWR Cladding

The primary challenge preventing the deployment of reactor designs that leverage wrought FeCrAl as an advanced light-water reactor (LWR) cladding is irradiation hardening and embrittlement. Wrought FeCrAl alloys experience a loss of post-irradiation ductility and fracture toughness under low-temperature neutron irradiation (< 350°C) resulting from the combined effects of dislocation loop formation and the irradiation-enhanced precipitation of Cr-rich alpha-prime precipitates throughout the microstructure. Over the past decade, significant improvements in our understanding regarding the effect of Cr and Al content have been enabled through neutron irradiations, but even optimized wrought alloys such as C26M remain vulnerable to brittle failure during storage, transportation, and handling following irradiation. This report summarizes multiple irradiation campaigns initiated over the past 7 years and provides recent insights into the effect of (1) minor alloying composition, (2) alloy processing strategy, (3) crystal structure, and (4) the use of advanced oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) alloys. The first irradiation campaign irradiated body-centered cubic FeCrAl alloy C26M with and without elements such as Mo and Y. It also included face-centered cubic alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) alloys that have a steeper neutronic penalty but that have far superior high-temperature strength than wrought FeCrAl. Finally, this campaign compared conventional wrought C26M with the same material produced using modern powder metallurgical hotisostatic pressing (PM-HIP). The second irradiation campaign, initiated in 2018, irradiated wrought and FeCrAl-ODS materials up to 50 dpa to assess their irradiation resistance to high-doses. The results of this work indicate that wrought C26M suffers significant degradation following neutron irradiation at LWR-relevant temperatures regardless of Mo and Y content. The PM-HIP variant appears to be more resilient to irradiation-induced ductility loss in comparison with wrought variants but still loses almost all ductility by 8 dpa. Notably, the AFAs retained at least 5% total elongation after irradiation at the same dose and temperature condition, although additional deterioration may be expected at higher fluence levels. FeCrAl-ODS materials show the greatest promise as a transformative longer-term accident-tolerant fuel (LT-ATF) cladding material. The extruded 106ZY10C alloy retained 10% total elongation after 16 dpa irradiation and retained 8% total elongation after 50 dpa. Additional challenges with FeCrAl-ODS alloys also remain, including optimization of end cap joining methodologies, enhancement of fracture toughness, scaling production to prove economic viability, and optimizing post-pilger heat treatments to maximize ductility and irradiation resistance. This series of irradiations demonstrates the efficacy of the LWR testbed available within the United States for the rapid irradiation and down-selection of LT-ATF candidates. As the country rapidly accelerates its timeline for the deployment of advanced reactor concepts, the effective utilization of the High Flux Isotope Reactor for separate-effects style irradiations should continue to be prioritized to answer the final questions pertaining to LT-ATF candidates necessary for the deployment of advanced boiling water reactors and small modular reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Molten Salt Reactor Fundamental Safety Function PIRT

The phenomenon identification and ranking table (PIRT) process was employed to evaluate the current capability to assess the ability of liquid-salt–fueled molten salt reactors to achieve their fundamental safety functions (FSFs). The PIRT process provides a structured mechanism to elicit and document expert opinions on the most important phenomena and the corresponding level of knowledge with regard to achieving the FSFs. The PIRT panel included reactor developers, accident progression evaluation tool developers, US Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratory technical staff, university researchers, and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff. The information-gathering process concentrated on phenomena related to accidents in which the fuel salt—including any in the cover gas—has been released from the first barrier layer. This information-gathering process included identifying all potential accidents that could result in the release of a substantial amount of radionuclides that could breach or bypass the first barrier. The PIRT did not identify any previously unrecognized systemic vulnerabilities. However, the elicitation process identified several areas with low levels of knowledge and significant potential impact on accident progression. These areas either require additional research to improve the state of knowledge or additional design conservatism to accommodate the remaining unknowns.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The military gear microbiome: risk factors surrounding the warfighter

ABSTRACT Combat extremity wounds are highly susceptible to contamination from surrounding environmental material. This bioburden could be partially transferred from materials in immediate proximity to the wound, including fragments of the uniform and gear. However, the assessment of the microbial bioburden present on military gear during operational conditions of deployment or training is relatively unexplored. Opportunistic pathogens that can survive on gear represent risk factors for infection following injury, especially following combat blasts, where fibers and other materials are embedded in wounded tissue. We utilized 16S rRNA sequencing to assess the microbiome composition of different military gear types (boot, trouser, coat, and canteen) from two operational environments (training in Hawai’i and deployed in Indonesia) across time (days 0 and 14). We found that microbiome diversity, stability, and composition were dependent on gear type, training location, and sampling timepoint. At day 14, species diversity was significantly higher in Hawai’i samples compared to Indonesia samples for boot, coat, and trouser swabs. In addition, we observed the presence of potential microbial risk factors, as opportunistic pathogenic species, such as Acinetobacter , Pseudomonas, and Staphylococcus , were found to be present in all sample types and in both study sites. These study outcomes will be used to guide the design of antimicrobial materials and uniforms and for infection control efforts following combat blasts and other injuries, thereby improving treatment guidance during military training and deployment. IMPORTANCE Combat extremity wounds are vulnerable to contamination from environments of proximity to the warfighter, leading to potential detrimental outcomes such as infection and delayed wound healing. Therefore, microbial surveillance of such environments is necessary to aid the advancement of military safety and preparedness through clinical diagnostics, treatment protocols, and uniform material design.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Carbon ore, rare earth, and critical minerals (core-cm) assessment of san juan and raton coal basins: what is the future potential of coal in the san juan and raton basins, new mexico and colorado

This report summarizes results from the CORE-CM project in the San Juan and Raton basins of New Mexico and Colorado and ultimately begins to address what is the future of coal in the San Juan and Raton basins. The objective of this project was to determine the nonfuel carbon-based products (CBP), critical minerals, and rare earth elements (REE) potential in coal and related stratigraphic units in the San Juan and Raton basins and adjacent areas. This project delineated favorable geologic terrains and priority areas containing potential CBP, critical minerals, and REE deposits for the DOE mandate, which also is a priority of the NMBGMR and state of New Mexico. This project is important to the state because CBP, critical minerals, and REE resources must be identified before land use decisions are made by government officials. Future mining of CBP, critical minerals, and REE will directly benefit the economy of New Mexico. Furthermore, it is crucial to re-establish a domestic source of critical minerals and REE in the U.S. to help secure the nation’s clean energy future, to reduce the vulnerability of the U.S. to material shortages related to national defense, and to maintain our global technical and economic competitiveness. In addition to these benefits, students at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology (NMT) and San

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2023

Huntsville Urban Development II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Map the Urban Heat Island and Evaluate Vulnerability in Huntsville, Alabama

Huntsville, Alabama has seen a boom in growth over recent years. One consequence of this urban expansion is the exacerbation of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect across the city. This project identified the areas within Huntsville the greatest potential for heat reduction and community health benefits from tree-planting efforts. The team created maps of land surface temperature (LST), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) over June through August from 2019 to 2022 using data from ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Landsat 9 OLI-2 and TIRS-2. The team identified areas with high LST, low NDVI, and high NDBI as areas with the greatest potential for heat reduction via tree-planting. Social factors relating to age, race, income, and self-reported health were adapted from Tree Equity Score to map community need for tree cover. When combining social with environmental factors, the team determined areas with the greatest potential for UHI mitigation: west-central and north downtown Huntsville. The team’s partner organization, the City of Huntsville, can use this priority map to guide their future tree-planting, and weigh the factors assessed according to their preference.

James Karroum↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heat exposure and maternal stress: evidence from the GRAPHS pregnancy cohort in Ghana

Heat exposure has been linked to psychosocial stress, an established antecedent of perinatal depression; however, evidence on heat-related stress during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa remains limited. We analyzed psychosocial stress scores and covariate data from the Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study, linking daily maximum and minimum shaded wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) metrics to participants’ stress scores derived from the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised Life Events Questionnaire. We evaluated associations using ordinal logistic regression of pregnancy-average and trimester-average exposures and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to assess time-varying associations across gestation. Higher average maximum WBGT exposure across pregnancy was associated with increased odds of higher psychosocial stress; each 1 °C increase in maximum WBGT was associated with 64% higher odds of belonging to a higher stress category (OR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.17–2.31; p = 0.0040). In trimester-average models, higher first-trimester maximum WBGT was also associated with higher stress (OR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.15–1.81; p = 0.0014). DLNMs suggested that relatively cooler daily maximum WBGT values (25th percentile) were associated with decreased odds of stress in early pregnancy, whereas extreme daily maximum WBGT values (99th percentile) showed a pattern consistent with increased odds of stress in mid-to-late gestation. These findings highlight gestational windows in which heat exposure may influence stress, emphasizing the need for further research into underlying mechanisms and effective interventions to protect maternal mental health in heat-vulnerable settings.

White, Lewis [Columbia University] (ORCID:00090005↗

DOE OSTI2022

The impact of freeze-thaw history on soil carbon response to experimental freeze-thaw cycles

This dataset contains data used for the paper "The impact of freeze-thaw history on soil carbon response to experimental freeze-thaw cycles". The Related References field will be updated with a full citation when available.Freeze-thaw is a disturbance process in cold regions where permafrost soils are becoming vulnerable to temperature fluctuations above 0˚C. Freeze-thaw alters soil physical and biogeochemical properties with implications for carbon persistence and emissions in Arctic landscapes. We examined whether different freeze-thaw histories in two soil systems led to contrasting biogeochemical responses under a laboratory-controlled freeze-thaw incubation. We investigated controls on soil organic matter (SOM) composition through Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectroscopy (FT-ICR-MS) to identify nominal carbon oxidation states and relative abundances of aliphatic-type carbon molecules in both surface and subsurface soils. Soil cores (~ 60 cm-depth) were sampled from two sites in Alaskan permafrost landscapes with different in situ freeze-thaw characteristics: Healy (>40 freeze-thaw cycles annually) and Toolik (<150 freeze-thaw cycles annually). FT-ICR-MS was coupled with in situ temperature data and soil properties (i.e., soil texture, mineralogy) to assess (1) differences in SOM composition associated with previous freeze-thaw history and (2) sensitivity to experimental freeze-thaw in the extracted cores. Control (freeze-only) samples showed greater carbon oxidation in Healy soils compared with Toolik, even in lower mineral horizons where freeze-thaw history was comparable across both sites. Healy showed the most loss of carbon compounds following experimental freeze-thaw in the lower mineral depths, including a decrease in aliphatics. Toolik soils responded more slowly to freeze-thaw as shown by intermediary carbon oxidation distributed across multiple carbon compound classes. Variations in the response of permafrost carbon chemistry to freeze-thaw is an important factor for predicting changes in soil function as permafrost thaws in high northern latitudes.This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/Erin-Rooney/FTC-FTICR (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.6533064).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Planetary Protection Technologies for Planetary Science Instruments, Spacecraft, and Missions: Report of the NASA Planetary Protection Technology Definition Team (PPTDT)

Planetary bodies like Mars, Europa, and Enceladus pose the question, "How to study them without contaminating them and destroying future prospects to detect life, if it is there?" The natural trade-off, of course, is that the cleaner your spacecraft, the more you can explore such a body without risk of contaminating it. As chartered by NASA Headquarters, the Planetary Protection Technology Definition Team (PPTDT) was asked to provide a report covering six different areas related to the engineering and technology challenges of implementing planetary protection requirements on solar system exploration missions, including: Assessment of technical and engineering challenges to applying available microbial-reduction methods, including recontamination prevention, to spacecraft hardware and instruments, to meet current NASA requirements on preventing the forward contamination of potentially habitable worlds by future spacecraft missions (orbiters, atmospheric missions, landers, penetrators, and drills); Identification of spacecraft and instrument materials known to be compatible with existing planetary protection protocols; Planetary protection protocols/processes available or which appear promising, and areas ripe for technological development; The technical and engineering challenges in ensuring that spacecraft hardware and instruments can meet organic cleanliness requirements needed to ensure high confidence in differentiating Earth contamination from extraterrestrial signals to avoid false negative as well as false positive results; Approaches for mitigating the identified challenges that would allow instruments to be flown successfully at the required levels of cleanliness and microbial reduction, beginning with identification of commonly used materials and spacecraft hardware that are compatible (or particularly vulnerable) to planetary protection protocols; Engineering, technology, and scientific research and development that could be funded by NASA to provide future capabilities to field scientific instruments and spacecraft on missions that require either subsystem or system-level microbial reduction and recontamination prevention.

John D. Rummel↗

DOE OSTI2019

Demonstration of the Cybersecurity Framework through Real-world Cyber Attack

The Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology Cybersecurity, provides five concurrent and continuous functions to Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, and Recover from cyber threats and vulnerabilities to buildings. Based on the core architecture and security best practices defined in the CSF guidelines, we developed the CSF webtools. The CSF webtools provide actionable functions that can be easily adopted by a facility operator to enhance their critical infrastructure security. The essence is captured in a set of “how-to” instructions for the facility operators to adopt, adapt, and apply to their critical infrastructure facilities. When considered together, these functions provide a high-level, strategic view of the lifecycle of an organization’s cybersecurity risk management. The CSF webtools provide an easy to follow set of cybersecurity best practices, policies, and procedures to improve the cybersecurity posture of our nation’s buildings and other critical infrastructures. The CSF webtools are also designed to facilitate communication of cybersecurity activities and outcomes across the organization from the executive to operations levels. Finally, the CSF webtools allow the critical infrastructure operators to assess the overall cybersecurity maturity and posture. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the capabilities of the CSF webtools through an illustrative cyber-attack based on a real-world scenario.

cybersecurity framework, maturity model, critical ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Consequences of Altered Root Nutrient Uptake for Soil Carbon Stabilization (Final Report)

Objectives: The primary objectives of this project are to improve our understanding of tropical forest belowground processes, and to increase representation of this biome in ecosystem-scale and global C cycle models. Belowground dynamics present a major source of uncertainty inhibiting our ability to predict C cycle responses to climate change. Representation of tropical forests in these models is particularly lacking, even though these ecosystems hold >25% of terrestrial C stocks. While the majority of humid tropical forests exist on relatively infertile soils (i.e. poor in rock-derived nutrients), enormous gradients in soil nutrient availability exist at landscape-scales due to shifts in geology and soil order. Soil fertility is likely to greatly influence how tropical soil C storage will respond to the declines in precipitation predicted for the tropics. In particular, root dynamics vary across soil fertility gradients, with roots representing the major input of C to subsurface soils. Root characteristics related to soil fertility include biomass, turnover, C exudates, tissue chemistry, and nutrient uptake rates, with each of these likely sensitive to changes in moisture. The proposed project will fully integrate field research with an existing ecosystem model to assess potential effects of drying on belowground tropical C dynamics across a range of soil fertilities. Project Description:. This project will identify key linkages among soil fertility, root nutrient uptake, root dynamics, and soil C storage. The hypothesized framework for understanding these linkages is: Tropical rainforest roots in relatively fertile soils have lesser root biomass, faster turnover, fewer exudates, and improved root tissue quality relative to infertile sites, all resulting from increased root nutrient uptake. Ultimately, these root characteristics in fertile soils promote proportionally greater long-term soil C storage in organo-mineral associations. Specifically, lower root exudates and improved root tissue quality in fertile soils reduce microbial respiration of extant soil C (i.e. “priming) and increase microbial C use efficiency, leading to sorption of protein-rich microbial and plant organic matter on soil mineral surfaces. However, the larger pools of mineral-associated C in fertile tropical soils are more vulnerable to decreased rainfall than smaller C pools in infertile soils, in part because of the lesser root biomass, faster turnover, and softer, more labile root tissues. Also, the shallower lateral rooting structures typical in fertile soils experience greater desiccation and death than deeper roots in infertile sites, with little short-term adaptation to drying.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic subcanopy leaf traits drive resistance of net primary production across a disturbance severity gradient

Across the globe, the forest carbon sink is increasingly vulnerable to an expanding array of low- to moderate-severity disturbances. However, some forest ecosystems exhibit functional resistance (i.e., the capacity of ecosystems to continue functioning as usual) following disturbances such as extreme weather events and insect or fungal pathogen outbreaks. Unlike severe disturbances (e.g., stand-replacing wildfires), moderate severity disturbances do not always result in near-term declines in forest production because of the potential for compensatory growth, including enhanced subcanopy production. Community-wide shifts in subcanopy plant functional traits, prompted by disturbance-driven environmental change, may play a key mechanistic role in resisting declines in net primary production (NPP) up to thresholds of canopy loss. However, the temporal dynamics of these shifts, as well as the upper limits of disturbance for which subcanopy production can compensate, remain poorly characterized. In this study, we leverage a 4-year dataset from an experimental forest disturbance in northern Michigan to assess subcanopy community trait shifts as well as their utility in predicting ecosystem NPP resistance across a wide range of implemented disturbance severities. Through mechanical girdling of stems, we achieved a gradient of severity from 0% (i.e., control) to 45, 65, and 85% targeted gross canopy defoliation, replicated across four landscape ecosystems broadly representative of the Upper Great Lakes ecoregion. We found that three of four examined subcanopy community weighted mean (CWM) traits including leaf photosynthetic rate (p = 0.04), stomatal conductance (p = 0.07), and the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (p < 0.0001) shifted rapidly following disturbance but before widespread changes in subcanopy light environment triggered by canopy tree mortality. Surprisingly, stimulated subcanopy production fully compensated for upper canopy losses across our gradient of experimental severities, achieving complete resistance (i.e., no significant interannual differences from control) of whole ecosystem NPP even in the 85% disturbance treatment. Additionally, we identified a probable mechanistic switch from nutrient-driven to light-driven trait shifts as disturbance progressed. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed traits such as the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (reNDVI) could be particularly sensitive and robust predictors of production response to disturbance, even across compositionally diverse forests. The potential of leaf spectral indices to predict post-disturbance functional resistance is promising given the capabilities of airborne to satellite remote sensing. We conclude that dynamic functional trait shifts following disturbance can be used to predict production response across a wide range of disturbance severities.

resistance↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of benchmarking choices on inferred model skill of the Arctic–Boreal terrestrial carbon cycle

Abstract Land surface models require continuous validation against observations to improve and reduce simulation uncertainty. However, inferred model performance can be heavily influenced by subjective choices made in the selection and application of observational data products. A key area often misrepresented by models is the Arctic–Boreal region, which is a potential tipping point region in Earth’s climate system due to large permafrost carbon stocks that are vulnerable to release with climate warming. We use the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework to evaluate how the model skill of TRENDY-v9 models varies based on the choice of observational-based benchmark and how benchmarks are applied in model evaluation. This analysis uses global datasets integrated into ILAMB and new, regionally-specific observational products from the Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment. Our results cover the overall time period of 1979–2019 and show that model scores can vary substantially depending on the data product applied, with higher model scores indicating better model performance against observations. The lowest model scores occur when benchmarked against regional, compared to global, datasets. We also evaluate observed and modeled functional relationships between ecosystem respiration and air temperature and between gross primary production and precipitation. Here, we find that the magnitude and shape of the responses are strongly impacted by the choice of observational dataset and the approach used to construct the functional relationship benchmark. These results suggest that model evaluation studies could conclude a false sense of model skill if only using a single benchmark data product or if not applying regional data products when performing a regional model analysis. Collectively, our findings highlight the influence of benchmarking choices on model evaluation and point to the need for benchmarking guidelines when assessing model skill.

Poe, Jeralyn (ORCID:0000000318495278)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of historical precipitation interannual variability in CMIP6 over the United States

Interannual precipitation variability profoundly influences society via its effects on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and disaster risks. In this study, we use daily in situ precipitation observations from the global historical climatology network-daily (GHCN-D) to assess the ability of 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, including the 50-member fifth-generation Canadian Earth System Model single model initial-condition large ensemble (CanESM5_SMILE), to realistically simulate historical interannual precipitation variability trends within 17 regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). We assess how accurately the CMIP6 simulations align with observational data across annual, summer, and winter periods, focusing on four key hydrometeorological metrics, including interannual precipitation variability, relative interannual precipitation variability (coefficient of variation), annual mean precipitation, and annual wet day frequency. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 ensemble members generally reproduce the spatial patterns of observed trends in annual mean precipitation. In most regions, models agree well with the signs of observed changes in annual mean precipitation, though discrepancies in trend magnitude are evident. Further, observed trends in winter mean precipitation broadly exhibit a spatial pattern similar to that of the observed annual mean. However, analysis of the CanESM5_SMILE shows that trends in precipitation variability may primarily be the result of model-simulated internal variability, suggesting caution in interpreting multi-model single-realization ensemble results. Challenges in accurately simulating interannual precipitation variability underscore the need for ongoing model refinement and validation to enhance climate projections, especially in regions vulnerable to extreme precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparative establishment and yield of bioenergy sorghum and maize following pre–emergence waterlogging

Biofuel feedstocks grown on marginal lands, such as those that experience ephemeral waterlogging, reduce interference with food agriculture. As early-season extreme precipitation events in the U.S. Midwest continue to increase, waterlogging tolerance may play an important role in the productivity of annual biofuel cropping systems. We assessed the establishment and yield of photoperiod-sensitive sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] and maize (Zea mays L.) after extreme early-season rainfall events in central Illinois. We used paired sorghum and maize transects, spanning from low-lying poorly drained areas to higher better drained areas, to evaluate the response of both cropping systems throughout the 2020 growing season. Sorghum maintained 25% mean emergence rates in areas that experienced the most severe waterlogging, but maize failed to establish under the same conditions. Despite the low establishment, sorghum yields in the poorly drained areas were upwards of 50% of those found in the better drained, whereas maize yields were zero areas in the poorly drained locations. The yield compensation in sorghum resulted from increased tillering, higher productivity per stem, and subsequently higher productivity per plant, which illustrates the greater phenotypic plasticity of sorghum compared to maize. Land managers who are currently seeking to grow annual cellulosic feedstocks on soils that are vulnerable to transient soil waterlogging will likely have more success with photoperiod-sensitive bioenergy sorghum than maize.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recovery of Forest Structure Following Large-Scale Windthrows in the Northwestern Amazon

The dynamics of forest recovery after windthrows (i.e., broken or uprooted trees by wind) are poorly understood in tropical forests. The Northwestern Amazon (NWA) is characterized by a higher occurrence of windthrows, greater rainfall, and higher annual tree mortality rates (~2%) than the Central Amazon (CA). We combined forest inventory data from three sites in the Iquitos region of Peru, with recovery periods spanning 2, 12, and 22 years following windthrow events. Study sites and sampling areas were selected by assessing the windthrow severity using remote sensing. At each site, we recorded all trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 10 cm along transects, capturing the range of windthrow severity from old-growth to highly disturbed (mortality > 60%) forest. Across all damage classes, tree density and basal area recovered to >90% of the old-growth values after 20 years. Aboveground biomass (AGB) in old-growth forest was 380 (±156) Mg ha -1 . In extremely disturbed areas, AGB was still reduced to 163 (±68) Mg ha -1 after 2 years and 323 (± 139) Mg ha -1 after 12 years. This recovery rate is ~50% faster than that reported for Central Amazon forests. The faster recovery of forest structure in our study region may be a function of its higher productivity and adaptability to more frequent and severe windthrows. These varying rates of recovery highlight the importance of extreme wind and rainfall on shaping gradients of forest structure in the Amazon, and the different vulnerabilities of these forests to natural disturbances whose severity and frequency are being altered by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1997

Multiple Hub Network Choice in the Liberalized European Market

A key question that so far has received relatively little attention in the germane literature is that of the changes at various airports as a result of the EU liberalization policies. That is, presently, most major European airports still benefit from the so-called home-carrier phenomenon where the country's publicly or semi-publicly owned carrier uses the country's main airport as its gateway hub and, consequently, the home-carrier is also the principal user of this airport (in terms of proportion of total aircraft movements, number of passengers transported, connections, slots ownership, etc.). The country's main airport has substantially benefited from these monopoly conditions of airline captivity, strongly determined by the bilateral system of international air transport regulation. Therefore, European major airports were used to operate in essentially different markets, compared to the increasingly competitive markets of their home based carriers. This partly explains relative stability of transport volumes and financial results of European major airports compared to the relatively volatile financial results of most European national airlines. However, the liberalization of European aviation is likely to change this situation. Market access is open now to all community carriers, i.e. carriers with majority ownership and effective control in the hands of EU citizens. Ticket prices are free, governments can only intervene in case of dumping or excessive pricing. A community airline can choose its seat in any of the 15 member states. Licensing procedures are harmonized between member states. In the last few months community carriers have had unrestricted route access within the EU. Most probably this development will be extended to countries inside and outside Europe. Last year the European Commission got the mandate to start negotiations with 10 other European countries. In the meantime the EC has also started negotiations with the USA on so-called soft rights. In the meantime, open skies agreements have been concluded between the USA and most of the EU member states to facilitate strategic alliances between airlines of the states involved. As a result of this on-going liberalization the model of the single 'national' carrier using the national home base as its single hub for the designated third, fourth and sixth freedom operations will stepwise disappear. Within the EU the concept of the national carrier has already been replaced by that of the community carrier. State ownership in more and more European carriers is reduced. On the longer run mergers or even bankruptcy will further undermine the "single national carrier - single national hub" model in Europe. In the meantime, strategic alliances between national carriers in Europe will already reduce the airlines' loyalty to a single airport. Profit maximization and accountability to share holders will supersede the loyalty of these newly emerging alliances, probably looking for the opportunities of a multiple hub network to adequately cover the whole European market. As a consequence, some European airports might see a substantial decline in arriving, departing and transfer traffic, thus in revenues and financial solvency, as well as in their connection to other inter-continental and intra-European destinations. At the same time, other airports might realize a significant increase in traffic as they will be sought after by the profit maximizing airlines as their major gateway hubs. Which will be the losing airports and which will be the winning ones? Can airports anticipate the actions of airlines in deregulated markets and utilize policies which will improve their relative position? If so, what should be these anticipatory policies? These questions become the more urgent, since an increasing number of major European airports will be privatized in the near future. Although increasing airport congestion in Europe will also be reflected in a growing demand pressure for airport slots, this is not a guarantee for a stable transport volume growth of individual airports. The more volatile the market is, the more vulnerable privatized airports become. Therefore, the main issue of this study is the analysis of the opportunities of major European airports to become a central hub as a result of the network choices made by the new European airlines in a completely liberalized market. In a previous study (Berechman and de Wit, 1996), we already explored the potential of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol of becoming the major West-European hub, once European aviation markets are deregulated. A major hindrance of that study was the use of a single hub-and-spoke network. For example that model could not analyze the viability of different combinations of European hubs within a multiple hub network of alternative airline alliances. In this study, we have formulated the model of a multi-hub network where two West-European airports are used for inter-continental and intra-European travel to enable a more realistic analysis of hub choice. Like the previous one also this multi-hub model is primarily used to assess the potential ability of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol for becoming a major West-European hub. Thus, in particular, the policy tests focus on this airport in a double hub network.

Berechman, Joseph↗