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Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY23): Appendix J: Leaching of High Burnup Used Nuclear Fuel in Deionized Water

The leaching experiment aims to understand the trends in the radiolysis-enhanced dissolution of HBU SNF when exposed to water (e.g., in-reactor or in-pool cladding failures). Specimens from a baseline M5-clad rod and a heat-treated M5 rod were cut from the fractured CIRFT specimens and placed in 100 mL deionized water for a period of 128 days. Both radial and axial sections were cut to provide different surface areas of fuel in contact with the leachate. During the four-month exposure period, aliquot samples of the leachate were analyzed using gamma spectroscopy and inductively coupled plasma - mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The analysis quantified the amount of fuel leached into the solutions and provided individual isotopic release fractions (of 30+ isotopes) which were compared as a function of time and surface area of the fuel exposed. Consistent with existing literature, the leaching followed a trend in which isotopes of certain elements such as Cs and Mo were among the first species in the matrix to dissolve, and with the highest release rates. This was followed by a gradual matrix dissolution consisting of uranium and other actinides and a slower-than-matrix release from some isotopes, including Ru and Rh. It was also observed that the circumferential samples having less exposed fuel surface area (to begin with) leached more than the axial samples for a majority of the isotopes during the timespan of the study. Previous experiments were conducted by decladding or exposing the pellet-clad surface completely, but the samples used in this study retained the cladding. One possible explanation for the higher leaching rate of the circumferential samples is that the pellet-clad interface, which has a greater density of grain boundaries and defects, may be the most vulnerable area to leaching of fuel in the presence of water.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Assessment of the Vulnerability of Water Resources to Seasonal Fires Across the Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, extending from the southern fringes of the Sahara to the Equator, and stretching west to east from the Atlantic to the Indian ocean coasts, plays a prominent role in the distribution of Saharan dust and other airborne matter around the region and to other parts of the world, the genesis of global atmospheric circulation, and the birth of such major (and often catastrophic) events as hurricanes. Therefore, this NSSA region represents a critical variable in the global climate change equation. Recent satellite-based studies have revealed that the NSSA region has one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be a major driver of the regional carbon, energy, and water cycles. We acknowledge that the rainy season in the NSSA region is from April to September while biomass burning occurs mainly during the dry season (October to March). Nevertheless, these two phenomena are indirectly coupled to each other through a chain of complex processes and conditions, including land-cover and surface-albedo changes, the carbon cycle, evapotranspiration, drought, desertification, surface water runoff, ground water recharge, and variability in atmospheric composition, heating rates, and circulation. In this presentation, we will examine the theoretical linkages between these processes, discuss the preliminary results based on satellite data analysis, and provide an overview of plans for more integrated research to be conducted over the next few years.

Ichoku, Charles M.↗

Bhutan Water Resources Tech Paper: Comparing Precipitation, Temperature, and Phenology Data Trends in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

Himalayan countries, including Bhutan, have become vulnerable to warming trends which result in increasing temperature and variable rainfall and snowfall. By combining phenological and meteorological data, Earth observation platforms and sensors were used to assess trends in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation phenology in Bhutan from 1996 through 2017. This project studied precipitation using Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station data, analyzed temperature using the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System, incorporated elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, and assessed vegetation phenology using Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to evaluate climate variability and its effects on Bhutan. In situ temperature and precipitation data were also collected from the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) project and Bhutan’s National Center for Hydrology and Meterology. Modeled and in situ data showed similar trends in precipitation and temperature for the Thimpu, Chhukha, and Gasa regions. Aqua and Terra MODIS phenology data were variable from year to year. However, the data suggested a late onset of spring green up. Partners at the Bhutan Foundation and locally in Bhutan can use this information to better understand and monitor climate variability and replicate these methods for future analysis.

Kinley Dorji↗

Bhutan Water Resources Project Summary - Comparing Precipitation, Temperature, and Phenology Data Trends in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

Himalayan countries, including Bhutan, have become vulnerable to warming trends which result in increasing temperature and variable rainfall and snowfall. By combining phenological and meteorological data, Earth observation platforms and sensors were used to assess trends in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation phenology in Bhutan from 1996 through 2017. This project studied precipitation using Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station data, analyzed temperature using the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System, incorporated elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, and assessed vegetation phenology using Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to evaluate climate variability and its effects on Bhutan. In situ temperature and precipitation data were also collected from the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) project and Bhutan’s National Center for Hydrology and Meterology. Modeled and in situ data showed similar trends in precipitation and temperature for the Thimpu, Chhukha, and Gasa regions. Aqua and Terra MODIS phenology data were variable from year to year. However, the data suggested a late onset of spring green up. Partners at the Bhutan Foundation and locally in Bhutan can use this information to better understand and monitor climate variability and replicate these methods for future analysis.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

Evaluation of top-down and bottom-up global terrestrial respiration estimates and their mismatch with model simulations

Terrestrial respiration is one of the most poorly understood processes in the global carbon cycle, making respiration predictions uncertain. However, expanding observations and machine learning approaches have led to a proliferation of estimates. We compiled total ecosystem and heterotrophic respiration estimates derived from top-down atmospheric inversions and bottom-up upscaling of ecosystem observations and compared them with dynamic vegetation models (DGVM) simulations over the 1980-2020 period. Our analysis revealed a convergence in mean annual global total ecosystem respiration estimates between top-down 97.1 (± SD 6.8) PgC yr-1 and bottom-up 98.5 (+/-13.4) PgC yr-1, which were both significantly lower than the ensemble mean from DGVMs estimates 133.7 (±4.7) PgC yr-1. We also found similar temporal trends between top-down estimates with a mean of 0.075 (±0.05) PgC yr-2, and bottom-up estimates of 0.05 (±0.05) PgC yr-2, which were 5 to 7 times smaller than the ensemble mean trend of 0.34 PgC yr-2 simulated by DGVMs. Global heterotrophic respiration showed much less agreement, ranging from top-down estimates of 42.7 (±4.0) PgC yr-1 to bottom-up estimates of 51.5 (±4.0) PgC yr-1 and a significantly larger ensemble model mean estimate of 60.8 PgC yr-1 (±1.9). The temporal trends in observation-based bottom-up estimates of heterotrophic respiration of 0.03 PgC yr-2 were five times lower than the model ensemble mean 0.15 PgC yr-2. Large regional disagreements in heterotrophic respiration estimates and simulations were evident in tropical and boreal latitudes. Therefore, improved regional and heterotrophic respiration estimates are necessary to reduce uncertainties regarding the future vulnerability of soil carbon.

Ballantyne, Ashley↗

The Transcriptional Response of Soil Bacteria to Long-Term Warming and Short-Term Seasonal Fluctuations in a Terrestrial Forest

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important carbon store, and this carbon is vulnerable to microbial degradation with climate warming. After 30 years of experimental warming, carbon stocks in a temperate mixed deciduous forest were observed to be reduced by 30% in the heated plots relative to the controls. In addition, soil respiration was seasonal, as was the warming treatment effect. We therefore hypothesized that long-term warming will have higher expressions of genes related to carbohydrate and lipid metabolism due to increased utilization of recalcitrant carbon pools compared to controls. Because of the seasonal effect of soil respiration and the warming treatment, we further hypothesized that these patterns will be seasonal. We used RNA sequencing to show how the microbial community responds to long-term warming (~30 years) in Harvard Forest, MA. Total RNA was extracted from mineral and organic soil types from two treatment plots (+5°C heated and ambient control), at two time points (June and October) and sequenced using Illumina NextSeq technology. Treatment had a larger effect size on KEGG annotated transcripts than on CAZymes, while soil types more strongly affected CAZymes than KEGG annotated transcripts, though effect sizes overall were small. Although, warming showed a small effect on overall CAZymes expression, several carbohydrate-associated enzymes showed increased expression in heated soils (~68% of all differentially expressed transcripts). Further, exploratory analysis using an unconstrained method showed increased abundances of enzymes related to polysaccharide and lipid metabolism and decomposition in heated soils. Compared to long-term warming, we detected a relatively small effect of seasonal variation on community gene expression. Together, these results indicate that the higher carbohydrate degrading potential of bacteria in heated plots can possibly accelerate a self-reinforcing carbon cycle-temperature feedback in a warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Neurochemical phenotype of corticocortical connections in the macaque monkey: quantitative analysis of a subset of neurofilament protein-immunoreactive projection neurons in frontal, parietal, temporal, and cingulate cortices

The neurochemical characteristics of the neuronal subsets that furnish different types of corticocortical connections have been only partially determined. In recent years, several cytoskeletal proteins have emerged as reliable markers to distinguish subsets of pyramidal neurons in the cerebral cortex of primates. In particular, previous studies using an antibody to nonphosphorylated neurofilament protein (SMI-32) have revealed a consistent degree of regional and laminar specificity in the distribution of a subpopulation of pyramidal cells in the primate cerebral cortex. The density of neurofilament protein-immunoreactive neurons was shown to vary across corticocortical pathways in macaque monkeys. In the present study, we have used the antibody SMI-32 to examine further and to quantify the distribution of a subset of corticocortically projecting neurons in a series of long ipsilateral corticocortical pathways in comparison to short corticocortical, commissural, and limbic connections. The results demonstrate that the long association pathways interconnecting the frontal, parietal, and temporal neocortex have a high representation of neurofilament protein-enriched pyramidal neurons (45-90%), whereas short corticocortical, callosal, and limbic pathways are characterized by much lower numbers of such neurons (4-35%). These data suggest that different types of corticocortical connections have differential representation of highly specific neuronal subsets that share common neurochemical characteristics, thereby determining regional and laminar cortical patterns of morphological and molecular heterogeneity. These differences in neuronal neurochemical phenotype among corticocortical circuits may have considerable influence on cortical processing and may be directly related to the type of integrative function subserved by each cortical pathway. Finally, it is worth noting that neurofilament protein-immunoreactive neurons are dramatically affected in the course of Alzheimer's disease. The present results support the hypothesis that neurofilament protein may be crucially linked to the development of selective neuronal vulnerability and subsequent disruption of corticocortical pathways that lead to the severe impairment of cognitive function commonly observed in age-related dementing disorders.

Non-NASA Center↗

So What's an RTG and Are They Safe?

When one considers space missions to the outer edges of our solar system and far beyond, our sun cannot be relied on to produce the required spacecraft (s/c) power. Solar energy diminishes as the square of the distance from the Sun. At Mars it is only 43% of that at earth. At Jupiter, it falls off to only 3.6% of Earth's. By the time we get out to Pluto, solar energy is only .066% what it is on Earth. Beyond the orbit of Mars, it is not practical to depend on solar power for a s/c. However, the farther out we go the more power we need to heat the s/c and to transmit data back to Earth over the long distances. On Earth, knowledge is power. In the outer solar system, power is knowledge. Solar arrays only operate at 19% efficiency, are very vulnerable to damage from radiation and temperature extremes, and cannot be used for even nearby missions that operate in extended darkness, or under the surface of a planet or moon. Twenty-six U.S. space missions, from the Transit to Cassini, have used radioisotope power systems and heater units to take s/c to the far reaches of our solar system and have demonstrated an outstanding record of safety and reliability. Radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTG's) have proven to be safe, reliable, maintenance-free, and capable of providing both thermal and electrical power for decades under the harsh environments of deep space. RTG's have no problem operating in the high radiation belts of space, the extreme temperatures, or the severe dust storms of Mars, and they have proven to be the most reliable power source ever flown on U.S. s/c. For example, the two Pioneer s/c operated for more than two decades and the Voyager s/c may last for 40 years. RTG's are not nuclear reactors, they serve only as power generators and are not involved in the propulsion of the s/c. They operate on the principle of thermoelectric generation that converts heat directly into electricity, they have no moving parts, are extremely reliable, and have met or exceeded all safety and performance expectations. Federal laws and regulations require analysis and evaluation of the safety risks and any potential environmental impacts. Extensive safety testing of RTG's and RTG components has been performed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to demonstrate the ability to survive accidents related to Space Shuttle launches and assure that the systems would be safe under all accident conditions, including accidents at or near the launch pad or during orbital reentry. Many design improvements have been made over the four decades that RTG's have been flown on space missions. This paper outlines the operation and safety standards of RTG's and the advanced developments expected to be used on future deep space missions such as the Europa Orbiter, Pluto/Kuiper Express, Solar Probe, Europa Lander, and Titan Explorer missions.

Barret, Chris↗

Analyzing Cyber Security Threats on Cyber-Physical Systems Using Model-Based Systems Engineering

The spectre of cyber attacks on aerospace systems can no longer be ignored given that many of the components and vulnerabilities that have been successfully exploited by the adversary on other infrastructures are the same as those deployed and used within the aerospace environment. An important consideration with respect to the mission/safety critical infrastructure supporting space operations is that an appropriate defensive response to an attack invariably involves the need for high precision and accuracy, because an incorrect response can trigger unacceptable losses involving lives and/or significant financial damage. A highly precise defensive response, considering the typical complexity of aerospace environments, requires a detailed and well-founded understanding of the underlying system where the goal of the defensive response is to preserve critical mission objectives in the presence of adversarial activity. In this paper, a structured approach for modeling aerospace systems is described. The approach includes physical elements, network topology, software applications, system functions, and usage scenarios. We leverage Model-Based Systems Engineering methodology by utilizing the Object Management Group's Systems Modeling Language to represent the system being analyzed and also utilize model transformations to change relevant aspects of the model into specialized analyses. A novel visualization approach is utilized to visualize the entire model as a three-dimensional graph, allowing easier interaction with subject matter experts. The model provides a unifying structure for analyzing the impact of a particular attack or a particular type of attack. Two different example analysis types are demonstrated in this paper: a graph-based propagation analysis based on edge labels, and a graph-based propagation analysis based on node labels.

MBSE↗

Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change

Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Towards Real-time Global Assessment of Post-fire Debris Flow Hazard

As the risk of wildfires increases worldwide, burned steeplands are vulnerable to the secondary hazard of widespread sediment mobilization through debris flows. Following an initial burn, sediment and soil previously restrained by vegetation are no longer consolidated, allowing for easy mobilization into channels and along steep hillslopes through runoff. Sufficiently powerful rainfall incorporates entrained material into turbulent flows and serves as the primary trigger for debris flow initiation. There is thus an ongoing need to establish the relationship between rainfall and debris flow initiation based on a variety of spatiotemporal preconditions. Previous work establishes regional and local thresholds to constrain the effect of rainfall in recently burned areas, but no empirical or numerical solution has worldwide application. Building from regionally-based efforts in the U.S., this work considers how remote sensing data can be applied to better approximate the post-fire debris flow hazards worldwide using freely available global datasets and software. Our work assesses the utility of remote sensing resources for analyzing burn characteristics, topography, rainfall intensity/duration, and, thus, debris flow initiation. Early results show that global observations are sufficient to delineate background rainfall rates from storms likely to cause debris flows across a variety of burn severity and topographic conditions. However, the dearth of publicly-available post-fire debris flow inventories globally limit the ability to test how the model framework performs within different climatologic and morphologic areas. This work will present preliminary analysis over the Western United States and demonstrate the feasibility of a global, near-real time model to provide situational awareness of potential hazards within recently burned areas worldwide. Future work will also consider how global or regional precipitation forecasts may increase the lead time for improved early warning of these hazards.

Elijah Orland↗

Power Operations of the Mars Exploration Rovers

The rovers of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) project, Spirit (MER-A) and Opportunity (MER-B), safely landed on the surface of Mars three weeks apart during January 2004. Spirit and Opportunity were built and operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), which is managed by the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) for NASA. Spirit landed at Gusev Crater, 14.8 degrees south of the equator, and operated continuously on the surface of Mars from January 4, 2004 until last contact from Spirit on March 22, 2010. Opportunity landed at Meridiani Planum, a location 2.5 degrees south of the Martian equator. Opportunity operated continuously on the Martian surface from January 25, 2004 until the last received transmission from Opportunity on June 10, 2018. The goal of the MER project was to determine if Mars ever had a habitable environment, in particular, if it ever had water. During their missions, both Spirit and Opportunity found evidence that liquid water once flowed on the surface of Mars. Both Spirit and Opportunity used a 1.33 m2 triple-junction solar array as their power sources. Based on observations of the original Mars rover, the Sojourner rover of the Mars Pathfinder mission that landed on Mars on July 4, 1997, the expectation was that the Martian dust would rapidly accumulate on the solar arrays of Spirit and Opportunity, and that the rovers would not have enough energy to continue operations after 90 Martian days (sols). Instead, due in part to lower dust accumulation rates than expected and numerous dust cleaning events, the Spirit and Opportunity rovers continued to operate on the Martian surface for over 2000 sols (MER-A) and 5000 sols (MER-B), respectively. During this time, the rovers experienced multiple Martian winters and several dust storms. Because the sources of solar array energy loss were known, the solar array energy output offered a method to scientifically estimate the loading and aeolian removal of dust from the solar arrays each sol. The MER Power operations team called this value that they calculated the solar array Dust Factor (DF). Dust Factor was defined as the fraction of sunlight that penetrates the accumulated dust on the surface of the solar array. A Dust Factor of 1.0 would indicate that the solar array was perfectly clean. A Dust Factor of 0.6 would indicate that only 60% of the available sunlight was able to penetrate the accumulated dust on the solar arrays. The MER Power subsystem operations team used the Multi-Mission Power Analysis Tool (MMPAT) to perform these Dust Factor calculations. The MMPAT software tool modeled the behavior of the solar arrays and the batteries as they interacted with the spacecraft power loads over the mission timeline. MMPAT also had knowledge (through telemetry and user inputs) of telemetered Power subsystem voltages and currents, atmospheric opacity (Tau), rover surface location, rover attitude, the planetary tilt and distance of Mars from the sun based on day of year, the instantaneous elevation of the sun based on time of day, temperatures (internal and external), terrain masking, and shadowing (due to the camera mast and antennas). Once all of the known sources of array energy loss are accounted, the remaining difference between the expected array energy and the actual array energy determines the solar array Dust Factor. The assumptions made while determining the Dust Factor are 1) that the single measured atmospheric opacity value (Tau) is constant over the course of the entire sol, 2) there is no measurable solar cell degradation, 3) there are no shorted strings and therefore, 4) all unexpected solar array energy losses are due to accumulated dust on the solar array. Although it cannot provide an absolute measure of dust loading, the determination of solar array Dust Factor provides a useful way of tracking dust accumulation and aeolian dust removal trends on Martian spacecraft. Any spacecraft on the Martian surface is vulnerable to dust, especially solar-powered spacecraft. The Spirit and Opportunity rovers were operational on the Martian surface for much longer than expected due in part to aeolian removal of dust from their solar arrays. The first few dust removal events were a pleasant surprise to the MER operations teams; however, over time a pattern began to arise. In over three Mars Years on the surface, the Power operations team tracked the solar array Dust Factor at Gusev Crater (location of MER-A) and observed that there were several significant dust removal and deposition events in Mars Year (MY) 27, even in the absence of a large dust storm. In MY 28 at Gusev Crater, the large atmospheric opacity (Tau) increase lagged significant dust removal events. Overall at Gusev Crater, there was a pattern of steady dust accumulation on the solar arrays, with a small number of significant dust cleaning events. At Meridiani Planum, where Opportunity rover operated for over seven Mars Years (late MY 26 to mid MY 34), a clear and consistent pattern of dust movement emerged. Meridiani Planum had a predictable, seasonally dependent pattern of gradual and continuous dust accumulation and removal. In summary, this paper explains the reasons for the development of the solar array Dust Factor and how it was used in mission operations. In particular, this paper describes the MMPAT software package, how it models array energy, including the important assumptions, model inputs and sources of error. And finally, this paper will show how the calculated solar array Dust Factor was used at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum to predict dust accumulation rates and weather patterns, and the importance of this generated data set for current and future solar- powered missions to Mars, such as the InSight lander and the planned Mars Sample Return rover.

Chin, Keith B.↗

A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc.), especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated) where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax) as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982-2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation) and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation). Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2-4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread increases in pasture productivity over the last 30 years.

ecosystems↗

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico

Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Depending on the activities in progress at the time of the threat, securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the time it takes for them to reach the rig location. The objective of this study is to use the available 50 years of past cyclone history to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity would be exposed to an upcoming cyclone whose forecasted track cone and storm size lies within that location. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data from the Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Version 4. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. Also, the tool allows the user to input a T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.

Risk↗

Bone Turnover Does Not Reflect Skeletal Aging in Older Hispanic Men with Type 2 Diabetes

The paradox of fragility fracture in the presence of non-osteoporotic bone mineral density in older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) makes it difficult to clinically predict fracture in this vulnerable group. Serum osteocalcin (OC), a marker of bone turnover, increases with normal skeletal aging indicating risk of fracture. However, OC has been reported to be lower in patients with DM2. An inverse association between higher glycated hemoglobin levels (HbA1c) and lower serum OC in older DM2 patients triggered discussions encouraging further investigation. A key question to be answered is whether changes in glucose metabolism is responsible for bone metabolic changes, ultimately leading to increased risk of fragility fractures in DM2 patients. While these studies were conducted among Caucasian and Asian populations, this has not been studied in Hispanic populations who suffer from a higher prevalence of DM2. The Cameron County Hispanic Cohort (CCHC) in Texas is a homogeneous Hispanic cohort known to have high prevalence of DM2 (30%). Our preliminary data from this cohort reported OC levels lower than the suggested threshold for fragility fracture in post-menopausal women. We further investigated whether bone turnover in older CCHC adults with DM2 show a normal pattern of skeletal aging. Samples and data were obtained from a nested cohort of 68 (21 men and 47 women) Hispanic older adults (≥50 years) who had a diagnosis of DM2. Given high prevalence of uncontrolled DM2 in this cohort, we divided population into two groups: i) poor DM2 control with HbA1c level ≥8 (48% men and 38% women) and ii) good DM2 control with HbA1c level <8). A crosssectional analysis documented associations between serum OC and age adjusted HbA1c levels. There was no direct association between age and OC concentrations in our study. Higher HbA1c was associated with lower serum OC in men (odds ratio -6.5, 95% confidence interval -12.7 to - 0.3, p < 0.04). No significant associations were identified in women. Bone turnover in older Hispanic men with DM2 in our study does not reflect normal pattern of skeletal aging. It is unclear why similar results were not identified in women. We will continue to follow this cohort to investigate longitudinal trend of changes of bone turnover and its relationship with HbA1c in both men and women of this cohort.

Rianon, N.↗

Narrow Scale Flow and a Weak Field by the Top of Earth's Core: Evidence from Orsted, Magsat and Secular Variation

As Earth's main magnetic field weakens, our magnetic shield against the onslaught of the solar wind thins. And the field strength needed to fend off battering by solar coronal mass ejections is decreasing, just when the delicate complexity of modem, vulnerable, electro-technological systems is increasing at an unprecedented rate. Recently, a working group of distinguished scientist from across the nation has asked NASA's Solid Earth and Natural Hazards program a key question: What are the dynamics of Earth s magnetic field and its interactions with the Earth system? Paleomagnetic studies of crustal rocks magnetized in the geologic past reveal that polarity reversals have occurred many times during Earth s history. Networked super-computer simulations of core field and flow, including effects of gravitational, pressure, rotational Coriolis, magnetic and viscous forces, suggest how this might happen in detail. And space-based measurements of the real, time-varying magnetic field help constrain estimates of the speed and direction of fluid iron flowing near the top of the core and enable tests of some hypotheses about such flow. Now scientists at NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center have developed and applied methods to test the hypotheses of narrow scale flow and of a dynamically weak magnetic field near the top of Earth s core. Using two completely different methods, C. V. Voorhies has shown these hypotheses lead to specific theoretical forms for the "spectrum" of Earth s main magnetic field and the spectrum of its rate of change. Much as solar physicists use a prism to separate sunlight into its spectrum, from long wavelength red to short wavelength blue light, geophysicists use a digital prism, spherical harmonic analysis, to separate the measured geomagnetic field into its spectrum, from long to short wavelength fields. They do this for the rate of change of the field as well.

Voorhies, Coerte V.↗

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico

Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons, it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the estimated time it will take the storm to reach the rig location from the time it is first detected. The objective of this study is to use 50 years of cyclone history from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) database, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity lies within the forecasted track cone and storm size of the upcoming cyclone. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. In addition, the tool allows the user to input any T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.

Offshore Oil Drilling↗

Vibration-based health characterization of multiple IMUs in UAV applications

Inertial measurement units (IMUs) are vital in UAV navigation for vehicle attitude and position estimation, especially in the frequently-occurring case of temporary loss of GPS capabilities. Degradation in these units could yield inaccurate position estimates, resulting in incorrect input for vehicle control systems. A wide variety of these units exist to meet the needs of UAV operators, general aviation, and military vehicles. In recent decades, lightweight and inexpensive MEMS sensors have grown in popularity with respect to UAVs. Studies into the failure modes of MEMS devices suggest that vibration is one of the leading causes of MEMS degradation. MEMS sensors are generally encased in their own hermetic packaging, as their small size and sensitivity cause them to be particularly vulnerable to air damping and particulate contamination when exposed. Exposure to excessive vibration can cause cracking in this packaging as well as damage to connecting electronics, with recorded results that cause sensors to act outside of their specifications, potentially providing unreliable input to controllers. A prior study from the Politecnico di Torino looked into the degradation of MEMS IMUs, specifically the AXIS-AIS402, for aerospace and vibrating environments. In the study, the authors found that after exposing MEMS IMUs to simulated vibrations from working conditions of aerospace applications, the sensors showed increased noise and increased bias instability. At NASA Ames, several widely-used MEMS IMUs were selected for a new IMU degradation study, comparing accelerometer performance before and after exposure to similar levels of vibration simulating aerospace conditions. The IMUs were selected from the Pixhawk autopilot systems, hobby sUAS, or prior experimental studies at NASA. Additionally, the industrial grade VectorNav-100 IMU was selected as a ground truth reference point to which the performance of the test sensors can be compared. In the study, each sensor is exposed to functional levels of UAV vibration as replicated on a single-frequency vibratory table in the NASA Ames SHARP Laboratory, and each accelerometer is characterized for bias, drift, and noise characteristics both before and after vibratory exposure. The focus of this study is to monitor the health of the IMU sensors and determine if sensor degradation can be detected from output error and frequency spectrum analysis, rather than from microscopic examination of the sensors. In this case, sensor degradation and faulty data can be more easily detectable by non-experts hoping to use these sensors as an important piece of an integrated package. In addition, specific sensor degradation modes potentially leading to in-flight hazards could be identified, such as accelerated levels of drift and altered temperature response. The overall goal of this work is to increase levels of safety for future users of these sensors and to provide a clear analysis of sensor limitations currently lacking in most sensor specification documentation.

IMUs↗