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At least 631 records · Page 35

Antarctic Meltwater Accelerates Southern Ocean Evolution Under Projected Atmospheric Warming

Increasing basal meltwater from Antarctic ice shelves may impact the Southern Ocean properties that feed back on the rate of melting. We investigate this feedback in a high‐emissions scenario using an Earth‐system model with interactive ice‐shelf basal melting, an improvement on previous studies that did not have the capability to evolve melt rates and the ocean state self‐consistently. We find that when interactive melt increases, it primarily accelerates the evolution of a spatial pattern of continental shelf warming and cooling that is initiated by freshening and sea‐ice formation decline due to projected atmospheric warming. The competition between enhanced warming at depth from reduced ventilation and enhanced continental shelf cooling from reduced dense water export leads to net ~35% reduction in ice‐shelf meltwater input into the Southern Ocean over the 21st century. Omitting this feedback introduces a bias in the timing of projected ocean‐melt‐driven ice loss from Antarctica.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. In this study, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Budget constrained machine learning for early prediction of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients

Abstract The combination of machine learning (ML) and electronic health records (EHR) data may be able to improve outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through improved risk stratification and patient outcome prediction. However, in resource constrained environments the clinical utility of such data-driven predictive tools may be limited by the cost or unavailability of certain laboratory tests. We leveraged EHR data to develop an ML-based tool for predicting adverse outcomes that optimizes clinical utility under a given cost structure. We further gained insights into the decision-making process of the ML models through an explainable AI tool. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Health System in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. We tested the performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality. We performed post hoc analysis to obtain optimal feature sets under various budget constraints. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a significant reduction in cost at the expense of a small reduction in predictive performance. For example, when predicting ventilation, it is possible to achieve a 43% reduction in cost with only a 3% reduction in performance. Similarly, when predicting mortality, it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in cost with only a 1% reduction in performance. This study presents a quick, accurate, and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Efficient and assured reinforcement learning-based building HVAC control with heterogeneous expert-guided training

Abstract Building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems account for nearly half of building energy consumption and $$20\%$$ of total energy consumption in the US. Their operation is also crucial for ensuring the physical and mental health of building occupants. Compared with traditional model-based HVAC control methods, the recent model-free deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based methods have shown good performance while do not require the development of detailed and costly physical models. However, these model-free DRL approaches often suffer from long training time to reach a good performance, which is a major obstacle for their practical deployment. In this work, we present a systematic approach to accelerate online reinforcement learning for HVAC control by taking full advantage of the knowledge from domain experts in various forms . Specifically, the algorithm stages include learning expert functions from existing abstract physical models and from historical data via offline reinforcement learning, integrating the expert functions with rule-based guidelines, conducting training guided by the integrated expert function and performing policy initialization from distilled expert function. Moreover, to ensure that the learned DRL-based HVAC controller can effectively keep room temperature within the comfortable range for occupants, we design a runtime shielding framework to reduce the temperature violation rate and incorporate the learned controller into it. Experimental results demonstrate up to 8.8 X speedup in DRL training from our approach over previous methods, with low temperature violation rate.

Xu, Shichao↗

Coloured low-emissivity films for building envelopes for year-round energy savings

We report that buildings are responsible for over 40% of total US energy use, of which about 40% is directly related to the operation of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. Saving energy to heat and cool buildings would contribute substantially to sustainability. Here we propose a category of coloured low-emissivity films for building walls that constitute the main component of the building thermal envelope. We demonstrate high reflectance (~90%) in infrared wavelength range and selective reflectance in the visible light wavelength range for desired colours. These films can help minimize radiative heat exchange between the indoor and outdoor environments, thus saving energy for all-year cooling and heating while satisfying the required aesthetical effect. Simulations show that these films can help reduce heat gain and loss by up to 257.6 MJ per installation wall area annually. In the case of a typical midrise apartment building, the HVAC system can save up to 124.46 GJ (equal to 9.87% of the building’s HVAC energy consumption). By rough estimation, a global CO 2 emission reduction of 1.14 billion metric tons annually could be achieved. Our work provides insights for innovative energy-saving building envelope materials that can help achieve global carbon neutrality and sustainability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Toluene adsorption and capacity regeneration using zeolite-based monolith and activated carbon fiber felt

Common adsorbents studied to remove volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from indoor air can release previously adsorbed VOCs back into the indoor space when the adsorbent is saturated or if the VOC concentration fluctuates. A durable adsorbent with a continuous regeneration strategy could prevent this recontamination of the indoor air and reduce adsorbent disposal waste. A deeper understanding of the adsorption and desorption behavior of VOC adsorbents is needed to create an efficient regeneration strategy. This study investigated the adsorption and thermal desorption behavior of toluene on two different adsorbents, (1) a zeolite-based adsorbent and (2) an activated carbon fiber (ACF) felt. Consistent adsorption behavior across a series of toluene concentrations was used to experimentally determine effective adsorption capacity. When the cumulative adsorption between thermal regeneration steps was maintained below the maximum effective capacity with 0% breakthrough, the zeolite-based adsorbent was found to effectively minimize passive desorption. The impact of regeneration feed conditions, such as inert, oxidizing, humidified air, on thermal desorption was examined. These conditions influenced desorption of the zeolite-based adsorbent but had minimal impact on the ACF felt adsorbent, which would lead to different regeneration schedules and methods for applications in buildings' heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems.

Moses-DeBusk, Melanie [Oak Ridge National Laborato↗

Robust hierarchical dispatch for residential distribution network management considering home thermal flexibility and model predictive control

In the transactive energy (TE) paradigm, the devices of participative consumers, or prosumers, may be aggregated and employed to drive operational objectives at the network level. Home heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in particular are well-suited to modulate their behaviours based on both home thermal flexibility and requests from the utility grid. This paper develops a robust, hierarchical power dispatch scheme in the context of a residential distribution network. The formulation couples a unique, multiphase linear distribution optimal power flow (OPF) at the upper level with model predictive control (MPC)-based HVAC fleet controllers at the lower level. The proposed approach is tested on nearly 2000 homes with a three-phase distribution network in an intraday market setting, where two major applications are explored and analysed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Measured Indoor Nitrogen Oxides in Homes with a Child with Asthma and Gas or Induction Electric Cooking

The Cooking Energy and Ventilation Impacts on Children's Asthma (CEVICA) study is a randomized control trial investigating the effects of replacing gas with induction electric ranges in the homes of children with asthma in California's San Joaquin Valley. Indoor air quality parameters and respiratory health indicators were measured over 2-week intensive at Baseline and after consecutive 3-month study phases, with half getting electric cooking at the start of Phase 1 and others in Phase 2. Indoor air measurements included time-integrated NO 2 and NO X by passive sampler and time-resolved NO 2 by electrochemical sensors. In the first 40 homes, data were collected during 61 intensives for gas cooking and 55 for induction. Cooking was identified using temperature sensors above the cooktop. Pollutant events were identified from sharp rises in concentrations Time integrated NOX species were lower with electric cooking, with mean differences of 14.2 ppb for NO 2 (95% CI: 9.6, 18.7; p < 0.001), 55.6 ppb for NO X (95% CI: 30.4, 80.9; p < 0.001), and 41.5 ppb for derived NO (95% CI: 19.7, 63.2; p < 0.001). A paired, within home analysis showed larger reductions in Group 2 (gas to induction) than Group 1 that remained electric across Phase 1 and Phase 2 for NO 2 (mean difference in As of 10.5 ppb; 95% CI: 5.6, 15.4; p < 0.001), NO X (32.3 ppb; 95% CI: 10.0, 54.5; p=0.007), and derived NO (21.8 ppb; 95% CI: 3.6, 40.0; p=0.022). Compared to electric cooking, gas had much higher rates of associated NO 2 events, and larger above-baseline NO 2 peaks. These preliminary results are consistent with prior findings that shifting to induction cooking can substantially lower indoor NO 2 compared with gas cooking.

Fang, Yi↗

Range Hood Use and Effectiveness in Reducing Indoor Air Pollution During Gas and Induction Cooking

The Cooking Energy and Ventilation Impacts on Children's Asthma (CEVICA) study measured cooking frequency, range hood use, indoor air quality and respiratory health indicators of children with asthma living in homes with gas stoves in California's San Joaquin Valley. The study installed electric induction stoves and repeated measurements over three 2-week intensive periods, at baseline and at the end of two consecutive 3-month study phases. Stove replacements occurred at the start of Phase 1 or Phase 2 by random assignment. There were 4184 cooking events identified by automated analysis of time-series data from temperature sensors mounted above the cooktops and 1038 related range hood usage events detected from data recorded by anemometers, smart plugs, or motor loggers. Analysis of 1-minute resolved PM2.5 and NO 2 data identified and quantified 2685 PM 2.5 events and 2606 NO 2 events. Range hood use was characterized as a binary variable (>3 min vs. <3 min use). Range hood use was more common during cooking events associated with particle emissions and longer cooking durations. PM 2.5 concentrations during events with range hood use were comparable to those without use, which could result from limited effectiveness or if range hoods were preferentially used during higher-emission cooking scenarios. In homes with gas cooking, integrated NO 2 concentrations were about 45 percent higher during cooking events with no range hood use compared to those range hood use. The lowest pollutant levels were observed when the range hood operated for more than half of the cooking duration. These findings show that operation of venting range hood during cooking can substantially reduce short-term indoor exposure NO 2 in homes with gas cooking.

Fang, Yi↗

Scenario Generation for Built Environment Decision Support under Uncertainty: Case Studies of Airflow Modeling and Climate-Resilient Infrastructure System Design

When confronted with unforeseen challenges, practicing informed decision making is crucial for enhancing resilience in the built environment. While scan-to-building information modeling (BIM) is a well-established approach for creating detailed digital representations of physical assets, its application in assessing and improving infrastructure resilience remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel application of scan-to-BIM, namely, scan-to-BIM-to-digital twin (S-BIM-DT) workflow. By integrating reality capture and digital twin technologies, this workflow creates continuously updated and accurate digital representations of physical assets, enabling the generation of various scenarios. Unlike traditional methods, the S BIM-DT workflow facilitates continuous model refinement, supporting informed resilience strategies. By combining these technologies into a cohesive process, the workflow facilitates decision making under uncertainty, enabling stakeholders to evaluate and respond to various scenarios effectively. We demonstrate the implementation of the S-BIM-DT workflow through two use cases that highlight its capability to enhance resilience at different scales. The first use case involves the Combined Transportation, Emergency, and Communications Center (CTECC) in Austin, Texas. BIM-enriched computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling simulates airflow and develops alternative scenarios for optimizing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. This approach enhances resilience against airborne health threats in a postCOVID context. The second use case focuses on designated areas within Beaumont, Texas, as part of the Southeast Texas Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (SETx-UIFL) research. By developing inundation maps to assess extreme weather events, this modeling aids in preparedness efforts and informs the development of climate-resilient infrastructure in vulnerable neighborhoods. Results indicate that the S-BIM-DT workflow effectively generates scenarios that enhance resilience in the built environment by facilitating informed decision making. Furthermore, this study serves as a bridge between advanced scan-to-BIM methodologies and the practical strategies needed to improve built infrastructure resilience.

Built environment↗

Carotenoid biomarkers in Namibian shelf sediments: Anoxygenic photosynthesis during sulfide eruptions in the Benguela Upwelling System

Significance Anoxygenic photosynthesis by phototrophic sulfur bacteria is prevalent in microbial mat ecosystems and in restricted, highly stratified aquatic environments. This limited distribution reflects their simultaneous requirements for an anoxic habitat, reduced sulfur to supply electrons for carbon fixation, and an appropriate light regime. Although these conditions were often satisfied in ancient seas, as shown by the distinctive carotenoid and chlorophyll pigments preserved in geological samples going back as far as 1.65 billion y, we can find no record of these organisms growing in today’s generally well-ventilated oceans. An array of carotenoids in sediments from the Namibian shelf suggests that green sulfur bacteria, despite their sensitivity to oxygen, can proliferate during episodic toxic gas eruptions in the Benguela Upwelling System.

Ma, Jian↗

Temporal Characterization and Filtering of Sensor Data to Support Anomaly Detection

Here, we present an approach for characterizing complex temporal behavior in the sensor measurements of a system in order to support detection of anomalies in that system. We first characterize typical behavior by extending a hidden Markov model-based approach to time series alignment. We then use a trace of that learned behavior to develop a particle filter that enables efficient estimation of the filtering distribution on the state space. This produces filtered residuals that can then be used in an anomaly detection framework. Our motivating example is the daily behavior of a building’s heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system, using sensor measurements that arrive every minute and induce a state space with 15,120 states. We provide an end-to-end demonstration of our approach showing improved performance of anomaly detection after application of alignment and filtering compared to the unaligned data. The proposed model is implemented as a computationally efficient R package alignts (align time series) built with R and Fortran 95 with OpenMP support.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Experimental analysis of convective drying of paper and board

Conventional multi-cylinder drying of paper and board involves a mixture of conductive drying from steam-heated dryer cylinders and convective drying by the flow of heated air over the surface of the paper web in the pockets. Pocket ventilation is a critical component in assisting heat and mass transfer during the drying process but is the primary contributor towards removing evaporated water from the web. Air temperature, velocity, and humidity are critical parameters involved in the convective drying process. This paper covers an experimental study involving the design and development of a small lab-scale setup for convective drying of various grades of paper and board, monitoring multiple parameters like paper temperature, moisture content, air humidity, temperature, and velocity measured in situ as the drying proceeds with continuous and accurate sampling capabilities for all parameters in the sample and the system. Instantaneous drying rates, heat, and mass transfer coefficients were also deduced for every time step till the paper completely dried. Furthermore, the coefficients obtained were also reported in the form of dimensionless correlations, and the results were compared against traditional correlations used in the modelling of paper drying. Furthermore, this data will be useful in process development, modelling, design, and the paper drying process simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simulating energy performance of buildings: a study using eQUEST and Energy Star ® portfolio manager

Commercial buildings consume significant energy in the United States and exhibit high potential for energy use reduction through retrofits. Benchmarking and energy simulation are well established tools in the industry to identify potential improvements and measure performance. Analysis to identify most sensitive retrofit parameters to energy performance can optimize investment and available energy savings. Presented study demonstrates methodology using a static model to determine sensitivity of building design and retrofit parameters with respect to energy performance. Calibrated simulation energy models (eQUEST) of two distribution centers (A, B) are presented. A fractional factorial analysis is conducted on retrofit parameters of efficiency measures targeting the highest energy consumers, and the results are benchmarked using Energy Star® Portfolio Manager. A custom Microsoft Excel® based simulation model is created to simulate occupancy levels, lighting, plug loads, and other equipment used in various spaces throughout the day. For Building A, efficient lighting was the most influential parameter for energy savings, carbon savings and benchmarking score; whereas, for Building B, HVAC efficiency was most influential for energy and demand controlled ventilation and economizers was most influential for benchmarking score. While retrofit projects can save energy and carbon emissions, variation in source-site ratios and state grid emissions, benchmarking scores may not always reflect equivalent improvement. State grid emissions factors, natural gas composition are difficult to model and hence not considered in this study. In conclusion, the synergistic analysis presented, emphasizes the importance of benchmarking and efficiency retrofits in promoting sustainable building practices to reduce energy consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Rooftop unit comparison calculator: a framework for comparing performance of rooftop units with building energy simulation

The applications of building energy simulation (BES) in designing heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are limited by the high costs of developing simulation models and the lack of references for determining the model parameters. This paper presents a software framework for selecting designs for rooftop unit HVAC (RTU) systems with BES. Specifically, this framework reduces the cost of using BES by automating the generation of EnergyPlus models. It also employs a systematic method for determining model parameters based on well-accepted datasets. We applied this framework in a comprehensive assessment of an advanced design of RTU systems in which 478 EnergyPlus models were developed without human involvement. The assessment reveals that replacing a constant-speed fan/coil with a multiple-speed fan/coil may not guarantee better overall performance. In conclusion, it also suggests the benefits of replacing furnace coils with heat pumps are subject to utility cost, weather conditions, and heating load profiles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Research challenges and directions in HVAC fault prevalence

This study provides a review of the current state of knowledge, gaps, and potential value in research on the prevalence of faults in commercial buildings. Two separate efforts were made in this study: (1) we performed a literature review to determine the extent of currently available fault prevalence data for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, and (2) we conducted dozens of interviews with subject matter experts and stakeholders to determine the HVAC fault data that would be of greatest value. Through the literature review and interviews, we discovered unmet needs for empirical data on the prevalence of faults at the desired level of granularity, consistency, and scale; this lack of data leads us to recommend future work studying commercial buildings’ HVAC fault prevalence, with robust fault taxonomy and a variety of meaningful fault prevalence metrics.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Automated fault detection and diagnosis of airflow and refrigerant charge faults in residential HVAC systems using IoT-enabled measurements

While automated fault detection and diagnosis (AFDD) in residential heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) using smart thermostat data is gaining increasing attention in recent times, it still requires in-depth investigation for market adoption, especially with real-life data. Furthermore, this paper proposes an Internet of Things (IoT) - based approach that adds a smart sensor to the smart thermostat data to carry out AFDD. The approach uses a model which predicts enthalpy change across the evaporator and compares the prediction to the measured enthalpy change. Deviations which exceed analytically determined thresholds then signal faults in the HVAC system. The faults detected are either installation related or degradation related. Experimental tests were carried out in four homes located in Norman, Oklahoma. From the tests, installation issues like indoor/outdoor mismatch were detected in two homes, while a 30% low charge and low indoor airflow rate were detected in one home. The results show that the proposed AFDD algorithm was able to successfully detect two prevalent faults, namely low indoor airflow and low refrigerant charge. Unlike most of the smart thermostat-based approaches, the proposed IoT-based approach can detect and diagnose both faults but only require one additional sensor which is provided by smart thermostat manufacturers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Performance assessment of a real water source heat pump within a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing environment

Over the last decade, the global fight against climate change through electrification has led to an increase in research on building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems that utilize intelligent control algorithms to provide demand-side grid service while also maintaining the thermal comfort of building occupants. As the pivotal point between building electricity consumption and indoor thermal comfort, high-efficiency electrical vapor-compression heat pumps are at the center of these emerging studies, and various grid-interactive and occupant-comfort control algorithms have been developed for them. The impact of these algorithms on heat pump operation and performance when subjected to different weather conditions, building loads, and grid requests calls for investigation and verification via experimental testing with actual heat pumps integrated with real-time building and grid responses. This study introduces a Water-Source Heat Pump (WSHP) Hardware-in-The-Loop (HIL) Test Facility that is the first of its kind. This testbed utilizes a 2-ton variable speed water-to-air heat pump that is capable of interacting with a virtual environment currently comprised of an EnergyPlus (E+) building simulation, an agent-based occupant behavioral model, and a single U-tube ground-loop heat exchanger (GLHE) model. Detailed descriptions of the testbed’s physical design and operation, virtual environment, as well as their mutual communication is provided. An uncertainty analysis is also performed under manufacturer specified heating and cooling design conditions. This analysis shows that the total load across the WSHP’s demand side heat exchanger, i.e., the sum of its latent and sensible components, can be measured with a relative uncertainty of ± 10.4% and ± 3.6% in cooling and heating mode respectively. The WSHP’s coefficient of performance (COP) can be measured with relative uncertainties of ± 10.4% in cooling mode, and ± 3.7% in heating mode. A preliminary 24-h experimental demonstration is then performed utilizing the DOE prototype small commercial office building model in E+. The simulation takes place in Atlanta, GA on the date of 08/26/15 from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM using TMY3 weather data. Here, the results from this demonstration show that over the course of this experiment the simulated outputs of zone dry-bulb temperature, zone humidity ratio, and WSHP inlet water temperature can be tracked by testbed emulators up to a root mean squared error (RMSE) of ± 0.27 °C, ± 0.376 g/kg, and ± 0.85 °C respectively. The WSHP’s dynamic behavioral characteristics and performance are also captured, and correspond well with the authors’ previous understanding of heat pump efficiency as a function of evaporator and condenser fluid inlet conditions respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗