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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Coherence limits for very-long-baseline interferometry

The quality of the frequency standards used in very-long-baseline interferometry (VBLI) limits the coherent integration time and the accuracy of geodetic experiments except in special cases when clock instabilities can be made to cancel out by using differential interferometry. Formulas are derived for estimating the coherence of these interferometers from the Allan variances of the frequency standards. Experiments using extremely high-quality frequency standards, such as hydrogen masers, may be limited by the phase noise that results from atmospheric and ionospheric fluctuations.

Rogers, A. E. E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Multiscale modeling to evaluate proposed space-based Doppler lidar sampling strategies

A proposal has been made to place a pulsed Doppler lidar on a space platform (Huffaker, et al., 1980; Emmitt, 1982) in a low earth orbit (200 to 800 km) to measure the atmospheric winds with a spatial resolution commensurate with the current continental rawinsonde network density - i.e., 300 to 500 km resolution. In the case of the space-based doppler lidar, the full range of space scales applies. Single shot pulses with dimensions of 10 x 1000 meters are used to sample areas 100,000 x 100,000 meters to resolved mass flow structure with wavelength of 1 million meters. Simulation studies, therefore, require an equally broad range of atmospheric models. A general circulation model is appropriate to answer questions regarding the impact of a global wind measuring system upon synoptic forecasts. Since the nominal resolution of the spacebased system is expected to be a few 100's of kilometers, then a numerical model with mesoscale dynamics is required. The meaning of an average Doppler shift within a laser pulse volume must be evaluated with models of turbulent/convective scale motions and aerosol gradients. Examples of how models on all these scales have been applied in an ongoing simulation study are presented. In particular, the uncertainties in a mesoscale wind estimate are separated into those arising from pulse scale variances and those due to sample distribution within a prescribed resolution volume. Trade-offs between accuracy and representativeness are discussed in terms of the model results.

Emmitt, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Phase error statistics of a phase-locked loop synchronized direct detection optical PPM communication system

Receiver timing synchronization of an optical Pulse-Position Modulation (PPM) communication system can be achieved using a phased-locked loop (PLL), provided the photodetector output is suitably processed. The magnitude of the PLL phase error is a good indicator of the timing error at the receiver decoder. The statistics of the phase error are investigated while varying several key system parameters such as PPM order, signal and background strengths, and PPL bandwidth. A practical optical communication system utilizing a laser diode transmitter and an avalanche photodiode in the receiver is described, and the sampled phase error data are presented. A linear regression analysis is applied to the data to obtain estimates of the relational constants involving the phase error variance and incident signal power.

Natarajan, Suresh↗
NASA NTRS1989

Estimations of model parameters for gravity wave spectra observed by MST radar

The general theory of MST radar observations of gravity wave spectra is developed. This effort extends the previous results to include anisotropy and Doppler effects for the spectra, as well as the consequences for the multibeam configuration. The relationships between the observed one- or two-dimensional spectra for the line-of-sight velocity in the gravity wave spectra are derived. Expressions for cross spectra, as well as covariances between velocities observed on different beams, are computed. Using these results, studies are carried out to show how model parameters for gravity wave spectra can be estimated from the observed quantities. Model parameters include the variance, power law indices, anisotropy parameters, Doppler parameters, mean scale sizes, etc. Cases with different numbers of beams are investigated.

Scheffler, A. O.↗
NASA NTRS1999

How to Estimate Attitude from Vector Observations

In many spacecraft attitude systems, the attitude observations are naturally represented as unit vectors. Typical examples are the unit vectors giving the direction to the sun or a star and the unit vector in the direction of the Earth's magnetic field. In 1965, Grace Wahba, proposed the following problem: Find the orthogonal matrix A with determinant +1 that minimizes the loss function L(A) is identity with 1/2(Sum from i a(sub i) (absolute value of b(sub i - A(r(sub i))(exp 2))) where the set of b(sub i) is a set of unit vectors measured in a spacecraft's body frame, the set of r(sub i) are the corresponding unit vectors in a reference frame, and the set of a(sub i) are non-negative weights. Wahba's problem can be related to Maximum Likelihood Estimation if the weights are chosen to be inverse variances, a(sub i) = sigma((sub -2). Wahba didn't assume this, but it will be convenient to assume it in this paper. Wahba'soptimality condition has provided the basis for many attitude determination algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the most popular and most promising algorithm and to provide accuracy and speed comparisons.

Markley,F. Landis↗
NASA NTRS1998

Testing Models for Perceptual Discrimination Using Repeatable Noise

Adding noise to stimuli to be discriminated allows estimation of observer classification functions based on the correlation between observer responses and relevant features of the noisy stimuli. Examples will be presented of stimulus features that are found in auditory tone detection and visual Vernier acuity. Using the standard signal detection model (Thurstone scaling), we derive formulas to estimate the proportion of the observer's decision variable variance that is controlled by the added noise. One is based on the probability of agreement of the observer with him/herself on trials with the same noise sample. Another is based on the relative performance of the observer and the model. When these do not agree, the model can be rejected. A second derivation gives the probability of agreement of observer and model when the observer follows the model except for internal noise. Agreement significantly less than this amount allows rejection of the model.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Diverse Applications of Occultation Data in Ozone Assimilation

Ozone profiles from solar occultation instruments provide invaluable information that can be used to evaluate the quality of assimilated ozone fields, from case studies to long-term phenomena. Occultation data can also be applied to include physical constraints while developing components of an assimilation system. Conversely, assimilation of occultation data can help in their validation, and it provides a framework for evaluation of the impact of occultation data on constraining global ozone fields within models. We illustrate these diverse applications by a series of examples using the ozone assimilation system at NASA/Goddard. In a case study, low ozone in the lower stratosphere due to transport of air from the Tropics to northern high latitudes that was captured by assimilation of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) data, was found to agree with SAGE III data. For long-term monitoring, the quality of a multi-year SBUV-only assimilation was evaluated using monthly-mean time series of POAM, HALOE, and SAGE I1 data. We found realism in the representation of the annual cycle in ozone and in some aspects of interannual variability. Assimilation of POAM data was shown to improve the representation of lower stratospheric ozone, especially over Antarctica. More recently, we assimilated ILAS II ozone data in order to help in their validation. Solar occultation data are used to estimate parameters in a new model for forecast error variances that is being developed. These examples demonstrate the importance of occultation data for ozone assimilation, and potential of assimilation to increase the impact and the value of occultation data.

Markowitz, A.↗
DOE OSTI2016

GPU Acceleration of Kernel Density Estimators in Monte Carlo Neutron Transport Simulations

Kernel Density Estimators (KDEs) have recently been explored for use in Monte Carlo radiation transport simulations as an alternative to histogram tallies for capturing spatially-resolved quantities such as neutron flux and reaction rates. Histogram tallies suffer from large uncertainties when detailed spatial resolution of the quantity of interest is required; increasing the resolution of the underlying mesh increases the uncertainty in each histogram bin. KDEs obtain estimates of underlying densities on user-defined points, with the uncertainty at those points being independent of the spatial resolution desired since collisions and particle-track segments are allowed to contribute to the score at multiple tally points. Thus, KDEs show potential for obtaining estimates of a smoother spatially-resolved with reduced variance when compared to a histogram. However, this ability that enables KDEs to obtain lower uncertainties per particle history is more computationally expensive than using a traditional histogram bins on a structured mesh. While KDEs are capable of producing lower tally uncertainties compared to histogram binning for a given number of histories, their increased computational cost may make them less efficient. Even so, it is possible to reduce this additional cost by exporting the KDE tally routines onto Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). GPUs are commonly found on high-performance computing machines as a means of increasing performance without adding additional compute nodes. While it is difficult for existing Monte Carlo radiation transport codes to take advantage of GPUs without rewriting large portions of the code, it is possible to leverage GPUs through heterogeneous computing. This work uses a modified version of OpenMC and exports the KDE tally routines onto a GPU to obtain problem-dependent speedups ranging between 1.6 and 5.0 for the problem studied in this paper. While this methodology is applied to KDEs, the same ideas can be applied to other computationally expensive vectorizable portions of Monte Carlo algorithms. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

An improved multilevel Monte Carlo method for estimating probability distribution functions in stochastic oil reservoir simulations

In this paper, we develop an improved multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for estimating cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of a quantity of interest, coming from numerical approximation of large-scale stochastic subsurface simulations. Compared with Monte Carlo (MC) methods, that require a significantly large number of high-fidelity model executions to achieve a prescribed accuracy when computing statistical expectations, MLMC methods were originally proposed to significantly reduce the computational cost with the use of multifidelity approximations. The improved performance of the MLMC methods depends strongly on the decay of the variance of the integrand as the level increases. However, the main challenge in estimating CDFs is that the integrand is a discontinuous indicator function whose variance decays slowly. To address this difficult task, we approximate the integrand using a smoothing function that accelerates the decay of the variance. In addition, we design a novel a posteriori optimization strategy to calibrate the smoothing function, so as to balance the computational gain and the approximation error. The combined proposed techniques are integrated into a very general and practical algorithm that can be applied to a wide range of subsurface problems for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification, such as a fine-grid oil reservoir model considered in this effort. The numerical results reveal that with the use of the calibrated smoothing function, the improved MLMC technique significantly reduces the computational complexity compared to the standard MC approach. Finally, we discuss several factors that affect the performance of the MLMC method and provide guidance for effective and efficient usage in practice.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1979

Precise time and Time Interval (PTTI) measurements from the navigation technology satellites and the GPS NAVSTAR-4 satellite

A time domain estimate for the NAVSTAR-4 SV clock offset was obtained for each SV pass over the GPS monitor sites, using a smoothed reference ephemeris, with corrections for ionospheric delay, tropospheric delay, earth rotation and relativistic effects. Conversion from the time domain to the frequency domain was made using the two sample Allan Variance; sigma-tau plots used to identify the noise processes. Estimates of flicker and white frequency noise for the NAVSTAR-4 rubidium frequency standard were obtained. The contribution of the reference ground clocks and other error sources to the frequency stability estimates were also considered.

Buisson, J. A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reconstructing cosmic polarization rotation with ResUNet-CMB

Cosmic polarization rotation, which may result from parity-violating new physics or the presence of primordial magnetic fields, converts E-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) into B-mode polarization. Anisotropic cosmic polarization rotation leads to statistical anisotropy in CMB polarization and can be reconstructed with quadratic estimator techniques similar to those designed for gravitational lensing of the CMB. At the sensitivity of upcoming CMB surveys, lensing-induced B-mode polarization will act as a limiting factor in the search for anisotropic cosmic polarization rotation, meaning that an analysis which incorporates some form of delensing will be required to improve constraints on the effect with future surveys. In this study we extend the ResUNet-CMB convolutional neural network to reconstruct anisotropic cosmic polarization rotation in the presence of gravitational lensing and patchy reionization, and we show that the network simultaneously reconstructs all three effects with variance that is lower than that from the standard quadratic estimator nearly matching the performance of an iterative reconstruction method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Regional oxygen reduction and denitrification rates in groundwater from multi-model residence time distributions, San Joaquin Valley, USA

Rates of oxygen and nitrate reduction are key factors in determining the chemical evolution of groundwater. Little is known about how these rates vary and covary in regional groundwater settings, as few studies have focused on regional datasets with multiple tracers and methods of analysis that account for effects of mixed residence times on apparent reaction rates. This study provides insight into the characteristics of residence times and rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification (NO 3 – reduction) by comparing reaction rates using multi-model analytical residence time distributions (RTDs) applied to a data set of atmospheric tracers of groundwater age and geochemical data from 141 well samples in the Central Eastern San Joaquin Valley, CA. The RTD approach accounts for mixtures of residence times in a single sample to provide estimates of in-situ rates. Tracers included SF 6 , CFCs, 3 H, He from 3 H (tritiogenic He), 14 C, and terrigenic He. Parameter estimation and multi-model averaging were used to establish RTDs with lower error variances than those produced by individual RTD models. The set of multi-model RTDs was used in combination with NO 3 – and dissolved gas data to estimate zero order and first order rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification. Results indicated that O 2 reduction and denitrification rates followed approximately log-normal distributions. Rates of O 2 and NO 3 – reduction were correlated and, on an electron milliequivalent basis, denitrification rates tended to exceed O 2 reduction rates. Estimated historical NO 3 – trends were similar to historical measurements. Here, results show that the multi-model approach can improve estimation of age distributions, and that relatively easily measured O 2 rates can provide information about trends in denitrification rates, which are more difficult to estimate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Estimation of Quantum Properties with Common Randomized Measurements

We present a technique for enhancing the estimation of quantum state properties by incorporating approximate prior knowledge about the quantum state. This consists in performing randomized measurements on a quantum processor and comparing the results with those obtained from a classical computer that stores an approximation of the quantum state. We provide unbiased estimators for expectation values of multicopy observables and present performance guarantees in terms of variance bounds that depend on the prior knowledge accuracy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through experimental and numerical examples detecting mixed-state entanglement, and estimating polynomial approximations of the von Neumann entropy and state fidelities. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2015

Probabilistic cost estimation methods for treatment of water extracted during CO 2 storage and EOR

Extraction and treatment of in situ water can minimize risk for large-scale CO 2 injection in saline aquifers during carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Additionally, treatment and reuse of oil and gas produced waters for hydraulic fracturing will conserve scarce fresh-water resources. Each treatment step, including transportation and waste disposal, generates economic and engineering challenges and risks; these steps should be factored into a comprehensive assessment. We expand the water treatment model (WTM) coupled within the sequestration system model CO 2 -PENS and use chemistry data from seawater and proposed injection sites in Wyoming, to demonstrate the relative importance of different water types on costs, including little-studied effects of organic pretreatment and transportation. We compare the WTM with an engineering water treatment model, utilizing energy costs and transportation costs. Specific energy costs for treatment of Madison Formation brackish and saline base cases and for seawater compared closely between the two models, with moderate differences for scenarios incorporating energy recovery. Transportation costs corresponded for all but low flow scenarios (<5000 m 3 /d). Some processes that have high costs (e.g., truck transportation) do not contribute the most variance to overall costs. Other factors, including feed-water temperature and water storage costs, are more significant contributors to variance. These results imply that the WTM can provide good estimates of treatment and related process costs (AACEI equivalent level 5, concept screening, or level 4, study or feasibility), and the complex relationships between processes when extracted waters are evaluated for use during CCUS and EOR site development.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Role of Ocean Dynamics in SST Variability across GCMs and Observations

Abstract Midlatitude SSTs forced by mesoscale oceanic processes can affect the large-scale atmosphere, pointing to the ocean’s crucial role outside the tropics. Previous studies have shown oceanic mesoscale processes’ effect on global and regional climate variability. This study quantifies the local contribution of ocean dynamics to mixed-layer temperature across the globe by directly estimating the ocean heat flux divergence resolved by state-of-the-art ocean reanalysis, eddy-resolving, and eddy-parameterized versions of two U.S. national climate models and indirectly from air–sea flux satellite-based estimates. Our results show that the eddy-resolving climate simulations resolve mixed-layer temperature variances that are larger and closer to those inferred from observations than both their eddy-parameterized counterparts and ECCO over much of the extratropics. The observations and the eddy-resolving models indicate a more significant role of ocean dynamics in the mixed-layer temperature variability than the surface fluxes over most extratropics compared to their eddy-parameterized versions. A frequency domain analysis shows that the better-resolved ocean mesoscale and thermal gradients enhance the variance over a time scale from 2 months to 30 years. Results show agreement in the ocean’s contribution among satellite-based estimates, ocean reanalysis products, and ocean eddy-resolving simulations. At the same time, differences emerge for ECCO and the eddy-parameterized models, suggesting that surface fluxes account for a larger fraction of the mixed-layer temperature variability in most of the extratropics.

Siqueira, L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Mapping electrodynamic features of the high-latitude ionosphere from localized observations - Technique

This paper describes a novel procedure for mapping high-latitude electric fields and currents and their associated magnetic variations, using sets of localized observational data derived from different types of measurements. The technique provides a formalism for incorporating simultaneously such different classes of data as electric fields from radars and satellites, electric currents from radars, and magnetic perturbations at the ground and at satellite heights; the technique also uses available statistical information on the averages and variances of electrodynamic fields. The technique provides a more rigorous way of quantitatively estimating high-latitude electric field and current patterns than other methods and has a capability to quantify the errors in the mapped fields, based on the distribution of available data, their errors, and the statistical variances of the fields. The technique is illustrated by an application to a substorm which was analyzed by Kamide et al. (1982) by an earlier technique.

Richmond, A. D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agent-Based Model of Combined Community- and Jail-Based Take-Home Naloxone Distribution

Importance Opioid-related overdose accounts for almost 80 000 deaths annually across the US. People who use drugs leaving jails are at particularly high risk for opioid-related overdose and may benefit from take-home naloxone (THN) distribution. Objective To estimate the population impact of THN distribution at jail release to reverse opioid-related overdose among people with opioid use disorders. Design, Setting, and Participants This study developed the agent-based Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) to model a synthetic population of individuals with and without a history of opioid use. Epidemiological data from 2014 to 2020 for Cook County, Illinois, were used to identify parameters pertinent to the synthetic population. Twenty-seven experimental scenarios were examined to capture diverse strategies of THN distribution and use. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify critical mediating and moderating variables associated with population impact and a proxy metric for cost-effectiveness (ie, the direct costs of THN kits distributed per death averted). Data were analyzed between February 2022 and March 2024. Intervention Modeled interventions included 3 THN distribution channels: community facilities and practitioners; jail, at release; and social network or peers of persons released from jail. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the percentage of opioid-related overdose deaths averted with THN in the modeled population relative to a baseline scenario with no intervention. Results Take-home naloxone distribution at jail release had the highest median (IQR) percentage of averted deaths at 11.70% (6.57%-15.75%). The probability of bystander presence at an opioid overdose showed the greatest proportional contribution (27.15%) to the variance in deaths averted in persons released from jail. The estimated costs of distributed THN kits were less than $\$$15 000 per averted death in all 27 scenarios. Conclusions and Relevance This study found that THN distribution at jail release is an economical and feasible approach to substantially reducing opioid-related overdose mortality. Training and preparation of proficient and willing bystanders are central factors in reaching the full potential of this intervention.

Tatara, Eric [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗
DOE OSTI2014

WE-E-18A-09: Application of a Channelized Hotelling Observer Model to Evaluate Angiographic Imaging Equipment

Purpose: To develop and apply an observer model to objectively evaluate and compare the performance of different angiographic imaging equipment and acquisition variables. Methods: Image Acquisition— Iodine-based phantoms were created with target diameters: 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 mm. The phantoms were imaged using both planes of a bi-plane angiography system with detector pixel dimensions 0.1542 mm{sup 2} and 0.1842 mm{sup 2}, respectively. All four phantoms were imaged with magnification factors 1.5, 1.25 and 1 and with the large and small focal spots. Phantom position and the dose per frame (0.12– 0.24 μ Gy/frame) were varied for a single phantom size, magnification and focal spot. Observer Model— For each experimental condition, 1200 signal-present and signal-absent images were acquired and a detectability index (d') was calculated with a Gabor-channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) model. Detectability indices were evaluated as a function of dose, phantom size, and magnification. The model was then applied to compare d' of the two imaging planes and focal spots. Uncertainty in d' was estimated by bootstrapping the data and by examining the shift-variance of systems. Results: Detectability indices varied linearly with magnification and the square root of dose. For the 2 and 4 mm phantoms, d' varied linearly with diameter. For the 0.5 and 1 mm phantoms, d' expectedly deviated from this linear relationship due to substantial detector and focal spot blurring of the phantoms. The small focal spot yielded up to 50% greater d' values than the large focal spot. For the two detectors, differences in d' did not exceed the estimated ∼7% error. Conclusions: The detectability indices predictably scaled with dose, diameter, magnification, and focal spot size and serve to validate the model. Results demonstrate statistically similar target detectability for both investigated detectors, despite differences in pixel dimensions. This CHO model provides a framework to evaluate angiographic system performance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗