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NASA NTRS1995

The lognormal distribution as a model for bio-optical variability in the sea

The lognormal distribution is presented as a useful model for bio-optical variability at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A parametric statistical framework is presented for using the lognormal model to assess the effects of heterogeneity and scale on closure. Variability at small scales affects but is unresolved by large-scale measurements. An assumed lognormal distribution allows one to integrate over small-scale variability to predict large-scale measurements. Examples are presented to demonstrate how knowledge of the variance can be incorporated into models to relate measurements made at different scales.

Campbell, Janet W.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Program Implements Variable-Sampling Procedures

MIL-STD-414 Variable Sampling Procedures (M414) computer program developed to automate calculations and acceptance/rejection procedures of MIL-STD-414, "Sampling Procedures and Tables for Inspection by Variables for Percent Defective." M414 automates entire calculation-and-decision process by use of computational algorithms determining threshold acceptability values for lots. Menu-driven and user-friendly. Reduces burden of manual operations, promoting variable-sampling practice in industry in lieu of "go/no-go" inspection. Written in BASIC.

Huang, Zhaofeng↗

NASA NTRS1996

Wind Variability in Intermediate Luminosity B Supergiants

This study used the unique spectroscopic diagnostics of intermediate luminosity B supergiants to determine the ubiquity and nature of wind variability. Specifically, (1) A detailed analysis of HD 64760 demonstrated massive ejections into its wind, provided the first clear demonstration of a 'photospheric connection' and ionization shifts in a stellar wind; (2) The international 'IUE MEGA campaign' obtained unprecedented temporal coverage of wind variability in rapidly rotating stars and demonstrated regularly repeating wind features originating in the photosphere; (3) A detailed analysis of wind variability in the rapidly rotating B1 Ib, gamma Ara demonstrated a two component wind with distinctly different mean states at different epochs; (4) A follow-on campaign to the MEGA project to study slowly rotating stars was organized and deemed a key project by ESA/NASA, and will obtain 30 days of IUE observations in May-June 1996; and (5) A global survey of archival IUE time series identified recurring spectroscopic signatures, identified with different physical phenomena. Items 4 and 5 above are still in progress and will be completed this summer in collaboration with Raman Prinja at University College, London.

Massa, Derck↗

NASA NTRS1996

Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph Observations of Variability in the RS Canum Venaticorum System V711 Tauri (HR 1099)

Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) observations of the RS CVn-type binary V711 Tau (Kl IV+G5 IV) were obtained at several phases over two consecutive stellar orbital cycles in order to study ultraviolet emission-line profile and flux variability. Spectra cover the Mg II h and k lines, C IV doublet, and Si IV region, as well as the density-sensitive lines of C III] (1909 A) and Si III] (1892 A). IUE spectra, Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) data, and Ultraviolet, Blue, Visual (UBV) photometry were obtained contemporaneously with the GHRS data. Variable extended wings were detected in the Mg II lines. We discuss the Mg II line profile variability using various Gaussian emission profile models. No rotational modulation of the line profiles was observed, but there were several large flares. These flares produced enhanced emission in the extended line wings, radial velocity shifts, and asymmetries in some line profiles. Nearly continuous flaring for more than 24 hr, as indicated in the IUE data, represents the most energetic and long-lived chromospheric and transition region flare ever observed with a total energy much greater than 5 x 10(exp 35) ergs. The C III] to Si III] line ratio is used to estimate the plasma density during the flares.

Dempsey, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Precipitable Water Variability Using SSM/I and GOES VAS Pathfinder Data Sets

Determining moisture variability for all weather scenes is critical to understanding the earth's hydrologic cycle and global climate changes. Remote sensing from geostationary satellites provides the necessary temporal and spatial resolutions necessary for global change studies. Due to antenna size constraints imposed with the use of microwave radiometers, geostationary satellites have carried instruments passively measuring radiation at infrared wavelengths or shorter. The shortfall of using infrared instruments in moisture studies lies in its inability to sense terrestrial radiation through clouds. Microwave emissions, on the other hand, are mostly unaffected by cloudy atmospheres. Land surface emissivity at microwave frequencies exhibit both high temporal and spatial variability thus confining moisture retrievals at microwave frequencies to over marine atmospheres (a near uniform cold background). This study intercompares the total column integrated water content Precipitable Water, (PW) as derived from both the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) pathfinder data sets. PW is a bulk parameter often used to quantify moisture variability and is important to understanding the earth's hydrologic cycle and climate system. This research has been spawned in an effort to combine two different algorithms which together can lead to a more comprehensive quantification of global water vapor. The approach taken here is to intercompare two independent PW retrieval algorithms and to validate the resultant retrievals against an existing data set, namely the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis data.

Lerner, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Broad iron K emission line and spectral variability of the Seyfert 2 galaxy IRAS 18325-5926

A very broad iron K alpha emission line is observed in the Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA) spectrum of the Seyfert 2 galaxy IRAS 18325-5926. The line profile is peaked at 6.9 keV and skewed down to 4 keV. The breadth and shift of the line energy can be interpreted by Doppler and relativistic effects in a cold accretion disk about a black hole with a intermediate inclination of between 40 and 50 deg. The steep spectral slope and the fast variability on a timescale of 10(exp 4) s are confirmed for this object. A study of spectral variability reveal that the X-ray flux change mainly occurred above 1 keV and the soft X-ray component below 1 keV appears to be less variable or constant and should lie outside of the nuclear obscuration.

Iwasawa, K.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Satellite Analysis of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Mesoscale Variability in the Sargasso Sea

The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of spatial variability on the time-series of biogeochemical measurements made at the U.S. JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. Originally the study was planned to use SeaWiFS as well as AVHRR high-resolution data. Despite the SeaWiFS delays we were able to make progress on the following fronts: (1) Operational acquisition, processing, and archive of HRPT data from a ground station located in Bermuda; (2) Validation of AVHRR SST data using BATS time-series and spatial validation cruise CTD data; (3) Use of AVHRR sea surface temperature imagery and ancillary data to assess the impact of mesoscale spatial variability on P(CO2) and carbon flux in the Sargasso Sea; (4) Spatial and temporal extent of tropical cyclone induced surface modifications; and (5) Assessment of eddy variability using TOPEX/Poseidon data.

Siegel, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Dynamics of Variable Mass Systems

This report presents the results of an investigation of the effects of mass loss on the attitude behavior of spinning bodies in flight. The principal goal is to determine whether there are circumstances under which the motion of variable mass systems can become unstable in the sense that their transverse angular velocities become unbounded. Obviously, results from a study of this kind would find immediate application in the aerospace field. The first part of this study features a complete and mathematically rigorous derivation of a set of equations that govern both the translational and rotational motions of general variable mass systems. The remainder of the study is then devoted to the application of the equations obtained to a systematic investigation of the effect of various mass loss scenarios on the dynamics of increasingly complex models of variable mass systems. It is found that mass loss can have a major impact on the dynamics of mechanical systems, including a possible change in the systems stability picture. Factors such as nozzle geometry, combustion chamber geometry, propellant's initial shape, size and relative mass, and propellant location can all have important influences on the system's dynamic behavior. The relative importance of these parameters on-system motion are quantified in a way that is useful for design purposes.

Eke, Fidelis O.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Studies of Long Period Variability in Neutron Star HMXB Systems

The purpose of this effort was to investigate the long term, quasi-periodic variability of the X-ray emission from the accreting X-ray pulsars LMC X-4 and SMC X-1. These high mass X-ray binary (HMXB) sources are known to vary in a nearly periodic fashion with cycle lengths of about 30 and 60 days respectively. The prevailing model for such behavior is that it is due to the precession of a tilted accretion disk around the neutron star which is the source of the X-ray emission. As the disk precesses, it periodically obscures the emitting region, resulting in reduced flux as observed at the Earth. The obscuration is not strictly periodic, as the disk precession period changes as the total mass and size of the disk change through variable accretion processes. This model is well established for the long-period variability in the X-ray pulsar Her X-1. With this work, my collaborators and I sought to test whether this model works for LMC X-4 and SMC X-1. Observations with the pointed instruments on the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) were carried out in order to observe changes in the X-ray spectrum and total flux which were correlated with the long period cycles in these objects. One of the main predictions of the precessing disk model is that the periods of low emission are caused not by changes in the central source, but by increased absorption of that flux as seen at the Earth. Such behavior would be observed in the X-ray spectrum as a relative lack of low energy X-rays (which are more easily absorbed) as compared to high energy X-rays. This is what was observed for SMC X-1, landing strong support to the precessing disk model for this system. For LMC X-1, however, the absorption was consistent with zero at the time of minimum flux. The entire spectrum appeared to be equally reduced. This is not supporting evidence for the model. However, it also does not rule out a precessing disk. If at the time of minimum flux, the intervening disk is so thick that no flux, even high energy X-rays, can penetrate, and if there is material above the disk which can scatter X-rays, then a small scattered spectrum will be seen which is indistinguishable from the unobscured source flux. This is quite possibly the case in LMC X-1.

Heindl, William A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Simulation of Crack Propagation in Engine Rotating Components under Variable Amplitude Loading

The crack propagation life of tested specimens has been repeatedly shown to strongly depend on the loading history. Overloads and extended stress holds at temperature can either retard or accelerate the crack growth rate. Therefore, to accurately predict the crack propagation life of an actual component, it is essential to approximate the true loading history. In military rotorcraft engine applications, the loading profile (stress amplitudes, temperature, and number of excursions) can vary significantly depending on the type of mission flown. To accurately assess the durability of a fleet of engines, the crack propagation life distribution of a specific component should account for the variability in the missions performed (proportion of missions flown and sequence). In this report, analytical and experimental studies are described that calibrate/validate the crack propagation prediction capability ]or a disk alloy under variable amplitude loading. A crack closure based model was adopted to analytically predict the load interaction effects. Furthermore, a methodology has been developed to realistically simulate the actual mission mix loading on a fleet of engines over their lifetime. A sequence of missions is randomly selected and the number of repeats of each mission in the sequence is determined assuming a Poisson distributed random variable with a given mean occurrence rate. Multiple realizations of random mission histories are generated in this manner and are used to produce stress, temperature, and time points for fracture mechanics calculations. The result is a cumulative distribution of crack propagation lives for a given, life limiting, component location. This information can be used to determine a safe retirement life or inspection interval for the given location.

Bonacuse, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Variability in shell models of GRBs

Many cosmological models of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) assume that a single relativistic shell carries kinetic energy away from the source and later converts it into gamma rays, perhaps by interactions with the interstellar medium or by internal shocks within the shell. Although such models are able to reproduce general trends in GRB time histories, it is difficult to reproduce the high degree of variability often seen in GRBs. The authors investigate methods of achieving this variability using a simplified external shock model. Since the model emphasizes geometric and statistical considerations, rather than the detailed physics of the shell, it is applicable to any theory that relies on relativistic shells. They find that the variability in GRBs gives strong clues to the efficiency with which the shell converts its kinetic energy into gamma rays.

Sumner, M. C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Influence of Convection on Magnetotail Variability

This study investigates the evolution of the magnetotail's magnetic field with the aid of a self-consistent two-dimensional model. In this model the plasma mantle continuously supplies particles to the magnetotail, the ion current periodically updates the magnetic field using the Biot-Savart law. The simulated magnetotail evolves into a quasi-steady state, characterized by the periodic motion of the model's near-Earth X-line. This variability results from the nonadiabatic acceleration of ions in the current sheet and their rapid loss from the tail. The characteristic time scale of variability in the magnetotail is on the order of 4 - 5 minutes. We also investigate how the magnetotail's topology responds to increased convection electric fields, and show examples of observations of variability in the magnetotail.

Peroomian, Vahe↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Optical Variability of Blazars

In this paper we show the results of our monitoring the flux variability of 15 blazars, within the redshift range of 0.07 to 2.06, all with a visual magnitude range between 14 and 20 mag. Because blazars have displayed variability on diverse timescales, we have chosen to study them over both short and long timescales, ranging from minutes to years. These blazars were observed on 58 nights between March 1995 and June 1998. Individual sources are discussed in detail. For example, one of our sources, Mkn5Ol showed microvariability of as much as 0.13 mag change within 12 minutes. The usual parameters for size, mass, and luminosity are calculated. Relativistic beaming is implied by the data. We also searched for correlations between amplitude of variability, redshift, and luminosity. We found few if any such correlations. Discussion and conclusions are given for these and other results as implied by the data.

Ghosh, K. K.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Interannual Variabilities in Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

This paper presents the first detailed characterization of interannual variability in tropical tropospheric column ozone (TCO) to delineate the relative importance of biomass burning and large-scale transport. TCO time series are derived from 20 years (1979-1998) of total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data using the convective cloud differential (CCD) method. Our study identifies three regions in the tropics with distinctly different characteristics related to interannual variability. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. The Atlantic region indicates a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in TCO which is out of phase with the QBO in stratospheric ozone. This is consistent with the photochemical control of this region by ozone-producing precursors. The observed pattern however does not seem to be related to interannual variability in ozone precursors related to biomass burning. Instead it appears to be a manifestation of the UV modulation of upper tropospheric chemistry on a QBO time scale caused by stratospheric ozone. During El Nino events there is anomalously low TCO in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific, indicating the effects of convectively-driven transport. The observed increase of 10-20 DU in TCO in the Indonesian region in the western Pacific during the recent 1997-1998 El Nino was associated with large-scale fires which may have contributed 5-10 DU of the total increase.

Ziemke, Jerry R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of Crack Propagation in Engine Rotating Components Under Variable Amplitude Loading

The crack propagation life of tested specimens has been repeatedly shown to strongly depend on the loading history. Overloads and extended stress holds at temperature can either retard or accelerate the crack growth rate. Therefore, to accurately predict the crack propagation life of an actual component, it is essential to approximate the true loading history. In military rotorcraft engine applications, the loading profile (stress amplitudes, temperature, and number of excursions) can vary significantly depending on the type of mission flown. To accurately assess the durability of a fleet of engines, the crack propagation life distribution of a specific component should account for the variability in the missions performed (proportion of missions flown and sequence). In this report, analytical and experimental studies are described that calibrate/validate the crack propagation prediction capability for a disk alloy under variable amplitude loading. A crack closure based model was adopted to analytically predict the load interaction effects. Furthermore, a methodology has been developed to realistically simulate the actual mission mix loading on a fleet of engines over their lifetime. A sequence of missions is randomly selected and the number of repeats of each mission in the sequence is determined assuming a Poisson distributed random variable with a given mean occurrence rate. Multiple realizations of random mission histories are generated in this manner and are used to produce stress, temperature, and time points for fracture mechanics calculations. The result is a cumulative distribution of crack propagation lives for a given, life limiting, component location. This information can be used to determine a safe retirement life or inspection interval for the given location.

P J Bonacuse↗

NASA NTRS1999

Variability of Convective Precipitation from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI)

Tropical precipitation generally occurs in two distinguishable forms: convective and stratiform. The two different types of precipitation systems have considerably different vertical profiles of latent heat release that has a crucial role in driving the circulation of the atmosphere. Thus, it is very important to study the variability of convective and stratiform precipitation. This paper presents variability of convective precipitation estimated from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). The convective/stratiform precipitation areas are classified using a combined texture-based and polarization-based algorithm. Surface rainfall rates are retrieved using the Goddard Profiling algorithm (Gprof). We will examine the spatial and temporal variability of convective precipitation for 1998. In addition, convective precipitation computed from TMI will be compared with those from the space borne Precipitation Radar (PR) and the ground-based radars for several cases.

Hong, Ye↗