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DOE OSTI2023

Proxy quality control of biomass particles using thermogravimetric analysis and Gaussian process regression models

Abstract The temperature experienced by reactants during preparation in a reactor is a key component in determining the yield and homogeneity of usable chemical products such as biomass particles. Thermocouples with sensors can be used to monitor spatial temperature gradients within reactors but these sensors are often too expensive and/or invasive. The present work proposes a strategy to identify optimal machine learning models to infer the maximum effective temperature experienced by particles during oxidative biomass torrefaction using key thermochemical combustion parameters. The maximum rate of weight loss, the corresponding temperature, and fixed carbon content on a dry‐ash‐free basis are used as literature‐based predictor variables obtained from thermogravimetric analysis. The evaluation of 24 machine‐learning models using the standard tenfold cross‐validation method suggests that the exponential Gaussian process regression (GPR) model is the most effective, followed by other GPR models. These high‐performing GPR models were also utilized to predict the effective preparation temperature distribution of reactor‐produced biomass particles under eight conditions of varying residence time and air‐to‐biomass ratio. The effective preparation temperature and residence time of individual biomass particles were then encoded into the torrefaction severity factor and used to estimate the energy yield of the reactor output as a novel quality control method. © 2023 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantification of the Radiative Effect of Aerosol–Cloud Interactions in Shallow Continental Cumulus Clouds

The indirect radiative effect of aerosol variability on shallow cumulus clouds is realized in nature with considerable concurrent meteorological variability. Large-eddy simulations constrained by observations at a continental site in Oklahoma are performed to represent the variability of different meteorological states on days with different aerosol conditions. The total radiative effect of this natural covariation between aerosol and other meteorological drivers of total cloud amount and albedo is quantified. The changes to these bulk quantities are used to understand the response of the cloud radiative effect to aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) in the context of concurrent processes, as opposed to attempting to untangle the effect of individual processes on a case-by-case basis. Mutual information (MI) analysis suggests that meteorological variability masks the strength of the relationship between cloud drop number concentration and the cloud radiative effect. This is shown to be mostly due to variation in solar zenith angle and cloud field horizontal heterogeneity masking the relationship between cloud drop number and cloud albedo. By combining MI and more traditional differential analyses, a framework to identify important modes of covariation between aerosol, clouds, and meteorological conditions is developed. This shows that accounting for solar zenith angle variation and implementing an albedo bias correction increases the detectability of the radiative effects of ACI in simulations of shallow cumulus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Global Market Demand Analysis to Guide Conceptual Design of Low-Boom Supersonic Transports

This paper uses a mathematical framework to identify the interdependencies of key variables in supersonic transportation demand analysis. The existing quantitative models for supersonic transportation demand analysis are compared for consistency in modeling the interdependencies. Unlike other quantitative models, the Low-Boom Systems Analysis Model (LBSAM2) can propagate important design characteristics of a supersonic transport aircraft concept to the level of economic metrics (such as the number of future supersonic passengers), with a consistent coupling of the market demand analysis, detailed mission analysis, and low-boom constraint. This allows the use of the detailed demand analysis results from LBSAM2 to maximize the economic viability of a supersonic transport aircraft by finding favorable system-level trades between weight, range, fuel burn, and assumed sonic boom ground noise limit for supersonic overland flight. In this paper, LBSAM2 is integrated with conceptual low-boom design to improve the economic viability of low-boom supersonic transport aircraft. A brief discussion of uncertainties in the LBSAM2 analysis is also included, focusing on their impacts on the relative economic advantages between low-boom concepts.

Consistent coupling of disciplinary analyses↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Global Market Demand Analysis to Guide Conceptual Design of Low-Boom Supersonic Transports

Equilibrium state of supersonic market↗

DOE OSTI2026

Understanding the structural and morphological effects of synthesis route on NpO 2

The availability of actinide standard materials for use in nuclear safeguard applications is critical, as is thorough characterization thereof. Although accurate trace element compositions and isotopic considerations are paramount for deployment of reference standards, structural characterization is also essential towards accurately describing the chemical form and potential matrix effects in candidate materials. Here, to this end, samples of NpO 2 were synthesized via a direct denitration (DD) method and probed with powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), Raman spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) for structural and morphological characterization and comparison with NpO 2 materials produced via modified direct denitration (MDD). PXRD confirmed the bulk identity of NpO 2 , and no additional phases were identified using this method. Analysis of Raman data collected using a 532 nm excitation wavelength indicates that samples are mostly phase pure; however, some variability in spectral features is observed. Analysis of additional spectroscopic data collected with a 785 nm excitation wavelength revealed variability in the relative intensity of spectral features. Raman spectroscopy indicates that the sample is primarily NpO 2 ; however, additional signals indicate possible structural disorder, oxidized species, or potential contributions from other Np phases. To further investigate the possibility of additional phase contributions within the sample of NpO 2 , Raman spectroscopic mapping was employed to examine the homogeneity of the sample produced via DD. From this analysis, we determined that despite variability in the intensity of Raman-active vibrational modes, consistent spectra are obtained throughout the area of the sample investigated. SEM images show aggregates with variable sizes and shapes, with rounded, primary particles possessing an average diameter of approximately 100 nm. Comparison of the results of these multimodal analyses to the literature indicates that the crystal chemical, spectroscopic, and microstructural properties of NpO 2 vary based on synthesis method, even if X-ray diffraction data indicate that the bulk phase is NpO 2 .

Direct denitration↗

NASA NTRS1981

Techniques for thermal sensitivity analysis

Techniques for computing the sensitivity of temperatures to changes in design variables needed for designing thermal protection systems are considered. It is shown that the choice of the most efficient technique depends on the ratio of number of temperature constraints to the number of design variables, as well as on the thermal analysis method employed. The analysis is specialized to the case of a structure modeled by finite elements, and an example of an insulation panel is used to demonstrate the techniques.

Haftka, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Assessment and Control of Spacecraft Charging Risks on the International Space Station

The International Space Station (ISS) operates in the F2 region of Earth's ionosphere, orbiting at altitudes ranging from 350 to 450 km at an inclination of 51.6 degrees. The relatively dense, cool F2 ionospheric plasma suppresses surface charging processes much of the time, and the flux of relativistic electrons is low enough to preclude deep dielectric charging processes. The most important spacecraft charging processes in the ISS orbital environment are: 1) ISS electrical power system interactions with the F2 plasma, 2) magnetic induction processes resulting from flight through the geomagnetic field and, 3) charging processes that result from interaction with auroral electrons at high latitude. Recently, the continuing review and evaluation of putative ISS charging hazards required by the ISS Program Office revealed that ISS charging could produce an electrical shock hazard to the ISS crew during extravehicular activity (EVA). ISS charging risks are being evaluated in an ongoing measurement and analysis campaign. The results of ISS charging measurements are combined with a recently developed model of ISS charging (the Plasma Interaction Model) and an exhaustive analysis of historical ionospheric variability data (ISS Ionospheric Specification) to evaluate ISS charging risks using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods. The PRA combines estimates of the frequency of occurrence and severity of the charging hazards with estimates of the reliability of various hazard controls systems, as required by NASA s safety and risk management programs, to enable design and selection of a hazard control approach that minimizes overall programmatic and personnel risk. The PRA provides a quantitative methodology for incorporating the results of the ISS charging measurement and analysis campaigns into the necessary hazard reports, EVA procedures, and ISS flight rules required for operating ISS in a safe and productive manner.

Koontz, Steve↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pilot Study for Determining HVAC Fault Prevalence from Fault Monitoring Data

HVAC faults in U.S. commercial buildings are estimated to waste 0.7 quads of energy annually and many companies have deployed software at scale for fault detection and diagnosis (FDD). Yet the lack of comprehensive published data on fault prevalence makes it difficult for researchers, software developers, and building operators to target the most important types of faults and accelerate the widespread deployment of this technology. A multi-lab effort is underway to quantify the prevalence of commercial building HVAC faults. This paper describes initial analysis conducted on over 2-years of FDD data from 12 campus buildings to inform the methodology and data collection strategy of the full study. The analysis found a large variability in fault prevalence across different buildings, pieces of equipment, and fault types, many duplicate fault alarms, and challenges in validating faults with secondary data sources such as manually entered work order data. This paper also discusses the requirements for a successful full study, which necessitates the acquisition of a large, diverse dataset, from buildings that vary in end-use, climate region, and installed FDD software platform, as well as robust validation data easily linked to the FDD data. It is especially important to perform this analysis on data from multiple FDD providers and building owners to ensure that the results are agnostic to the software methodology used and building-specific settings. Future work will present the results of the full study, which will contain data from several different partner organizations, spanning a large proportion of U.S. climate zones.

Newman, Sarah F.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Effect of Cross-Correlation on Geomagnetic Forecast Accuracies

Surface geomagnetic observation can determine up to degree L = 14 time-varying spherical harmonic coefficients of the poloidal magnetic field. Assimilation of these coefficients to numerical dynamo simulation could help us understand better the dynamical processes in the Earth's outer core, and to provide more accurate forecast of geomagnetic secular variations (SV). In our previous assimilation studies, only the poloidal magnetic field in the core is corrected by the observations in the analysis. Unobservable core state variables (the toroidal magnetic field and the core velocity field) are corrected via the dynamical equations of the geodynamo. Our assimilation experiments show that the assimilated core state converges near the CMB, implying that the dynamo state is strongly constrained by surface geomagnetic observations, and is pulled closer to the truth by the data. We are now carrying out an ensemble of assimilation runs with 1000 years of geomagnetic and archeo/paleo magnetic record. In these runs the cross correlation between the toroidal and the poloidal magnetic fields is incorporated into the analysis. This correlation is derived from the physical boundary conditions of the toroidal field at the core-mantle boundary (CMB). The assimilation results are then compared with those of the ensemble runs without the cross-correlation, aiming at understanding two fundamental issues: the effect of the crosscorrelation on (1) the convergence of the core state, and (2) the SV prediction accuracies. The constrained dynamo solutions will provide valuable insights on interpreting the observed SV, e.g. the near-equator magnetic flux patches, the core-mantle interactions, and possibly other geodynamic observables.

Kuang, Weijia↗

NASA NTRS1993

The broad-band X-ray spectral variability of Mrk 841

A detailed spectral analysis of five X-ray observations of Mrk 841 with the EXOSAT, Ginga, and ROSAT satellites is reported. Variability is apparent in both the soft (0.1-1.0 keV) and medium (1-20 keV) energy bands. Above, 1 keV, the spectra are adequately modeled by a power law with a strong emission line of equivalent width 450 eV. The large equivalent width of the emission line indicates a strongly enhanced reflection component of the source compared with other Seyferts observed with Ginga. The implications of the results of the analysis for physical models of the emission regions in this and other X-ray bright Seyferts are briefly examined.

George, I. M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Reliability Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization of Composite Structures Based on Response Surface Methodology

This report discusses the development and application of two alternative strategies in the form of global and sequential local response surface (RS) techniques for the solution of reliability-based optimization (RBO) problems. The problem of a thin-walled composite circular cylinder under axial buckling instability is used as a demonstrative example. In this case, the global technique uses a single second-order RS model to estimate the axial buckling load over the entire feasible design space (FDS) whereas the local technique uses multiple first-order RS models with each applied to a small subregion of FDS. Alternative methods for the calculation of unknown coefficients in each RS model are explored prior to the solution of the optimization problem. The example RBO problem is formulated as a function of 23 uncorrelated random variables that include material properties, thickness and orientation angle of each ply, cylinder diameter and length, as well as the applied load. The mean values of the 8 ply thicknesses are treated as independent design variables. While the coefficients of variation of all random variables are held fixed, the standard deviations of ply thicknesses can vary during the optimization process as a result of changes in the design variables. The structural reliability analysis is based on the first-order reliability method with reliability index treated as the design constraint. In addition to the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of reliability index, the results of the RBO problem are presented for different combinations of cylinder length and diameter and laminate ply patterns. The two strategies are found to produce similar results in terms of accuracy with the sequential local RS technique having a considerably better computational efficiency.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud↗

NASA NTRS1971

Development of techniques for measuring pilot workload

An objective method of assessing information workload based on physiological measurements was developed. Information workload, or reserve capacity, was measured using a visual discrimination secondary task and subjective rating of task difficulty. The primary task was two axis (pitch and roll) tracking, and the independent variables in this study were aircraft pitch dynamics and wind gust disturbances. The study was structured to provide: (1) a sensitive, nonloading measure of reserve capacity, and (2) an unencumbering reliable measurement of the psychophysiological state. From these, a measured workload index (MWI) and physiological workload index (PWI) were extracted. An important measure of the success of this study was the degree to which the MWI and PWI agreed across the 243 randomly-presented, four-minute trials (9 subjects X 9 tasks X 3 replications). The electrophysiological data collected included vectorcardiogaram, respiration, electromyogram, skin impedance, and electroencephalogram. Special computer programs were created for the analysis of each physiological variable. The digital data base then consisted of 82 physiological features for each of the 243 trials. A prediction of workload based on physiological observations was formulated as a simultaneous least-squares prediction problem. A best subset of 10 features was chosen to predict the three measures of reserve capacity. The cannonical correlation coefficient was .754 with a chi squared value of 91.3 which allows rejection of the null hypothesis with p of .995.

Spyker, D. A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Shortwave Cloud-SST Feedback Amplifies Multi-Decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends: Implications for Observed Cooling

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud-SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi-decadal SST variability. A heat-budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud-radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi-decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ~56% on average. If models underestimate climate “noise,” as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Carbon storage cost modeling for the offshore Gulf of Mexico

Groundbreaking for geologic carbon storage (GCS) projects in the offshore Gulf of Mexico is imminent, and there is great interest in utilizing this region for GCS projects. Offshore saline reservoirs provide a significant and accessible resource for GCS. However, conducting GCS in the offshore environment will pose distinct challenges pertaining to site selection, operations, infrastructure use, and monitoring compared to operating onshore that ultimately affect technoeconomic assessment of offshore GCS projects. Carbon storage and transport costs are critical to project developers looking to deploy carbon storage in the offshore environment. We present CO2_S_COM_Offshore, a model developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) as a screening-level offshore saline GCS cost modeling tool. Based on NETL’s widely used CO2_S_COM cost model for onshore saline CS, CO2_S_COM_Offshore enables technoeconomic analysis of GCS in offshore areas. This model comprehensively incorporates multiple facets of offshore GCS projects, from regional evaluation and site selection to permitting, transport, operations, monitoring, site closure, and decommissioning. In general, the model can explore the cost implications for potential offshore GCS project(s) by enabling the user to change several project operational and financial attribute configurations. Key inputs include offshore storage formation options, CO2 injection rate and duration, infrastructure types, monitoring intensity, project financing, and post-injection site care duration. Supporting cost algorithms within CO2_S_COM_Offshore were compiled utilizing S&P Global’ s QUE$TORTM cost estimation software alongside a variety of open-source scientific literature. In addition to reviewing key model components, we discuss several sensitivity analyses, input variabilities, and results on analysis of break-even CO2 price required by a project based on different regulation/policy and operational scenarios for the offshore Gulf of Mexico. These results indicate the value of modeling offshore GCS specifically, and the potential of offshore GCS within a decarbonization value chain. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Mark-Moser, Mackenzie K.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Potential Basin-Scale Estimates of Arctic Snow Depth with Sea Ice Freeboards from CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2: An Exploratory Analysis

The potential of deriving snow depth estimates using differences in freeboard heights from CryoSat-2 (CS-2) and ICESat-2 (IS-2) is examined. In our analysis, we use lidar freeboard from the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) on Operation IceBridge (OIB) as proxy of IS-2 total (snow plus ice) freeboard. Snow depths are estimates from the OIB snow radar. Differences in height between the total (ATM) and ice (CS-2) freeboards are related to snow depth by the refractive index of the snow layer, which is dependent on snow density. For two years (2014 and 2015), regression of the ATM and CS-2 freeboard differences against OIB snow depth gives correlations of approximately 0.80, estimated eta (sub s) of 1.21, and standard errors of 8 centimeters. The resulting refractive index, eta (sub s), can be compared to that expected of the Arctic snow cover in early spring (1.25 plus or minus 0.05). The expected biases and variability in the regression analysis are discussed. Results suggest that snow depth can be estimated from the freeboard differences. The benefits of adjusting the orbit of CS-2 for providing more optimized overlaps between IS-2 and CS-2 are considered.

Sea ice↗

NASA NTRS1988

Software tools for the integration and execution of multidisciplinary analysis programs

The Environment for Application Software Integration and Execution (EASIE) software furnishes a methodology and a set of utility routines for design teams to use in building, maintaining, and applying CAD systems consituted by a large number of diverse, stand-alone analysis codes. EASIE uses a central data base that contains all variables required as inputs to the analysis programs that will make up the integrated system. Attention is given to the illustrative cases of three operational design systems based on EASIE.

Rowell, L. F.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Polarimetric Radar Variables in Snowfall at Ka- and W-Band Frequency Bands: A Comparative Analysis

Dual-frequency millimeter-wavelength radar observations in snowfall are analyzed in order to evaluate differences in conventional polarimetric radar variables such as differential reflectivity (ZDR) specific differential phase shift (K DP ) and linear depolarization ratio (LDR) at traditional cloud radar frequencies at Ka and W bands (~35 and ~94 GHz, correspondingly). Low radar beam elevation (~5°) measurements were performed at Oliktok Point, Alaska, with a scanning fully polarimetric radar operating in the horizontal–vertical polarization basis. This radar has the same gate spacing and very close beam widths at both frequencies, which largely alleviates uncertainties associated with spatial and temporal data matching. It is shown that observed Ka- and W-band Z DR differences are, on average, less than about 0.5 dB and do not have a pronounced trend as a function of snowfall reflectivity. The observed Z DR differences agree well with modeling results obtained using integration over nonspherical ice particle size distributions. For higher signal-to-noise ratios, KDP data derived from differential phase measurements are approximately scaled as reciprocals of corresponding radar frequencies indicating that the influence of non-Rayleigh scattering effects on this variable is rather limited. This result is also in satisfactory agreement with data obtained by modeling using realistic particle size distributions. Observed Ka- and W-band LDR differences are strongly affected by the radar hardware system polarization “leak” and are generally less than 4 dB. Smaller differences are observed for higher depolarizations, where the polarization “leak” is less pronounced. Realistic assumptions about particle canting and the system polarization isolation lead to modeling results that satisfactorily agree with observational dual-frequency LDR data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1998

Search for Hard X-Ray Emission from Aquila X-1: High Energy Emission from Gamma-ray Radio Star 2CG 135+1/LSI 61 305

Several investigations supported by these CCRO grant were completed or are close to completion. The study of EGRET data for the unidentified source 2CG 135+01 was very fruitful. We discovered transient gamma-ray emission by combining several data obtained since 1994 through 1997. It is the first time that time variable emission is established for this enigmatic source, and clearly an interpretation in terms of an isolated radio pulsar (Geminga-like) is disfavored now. Our preferred model is a Galactic source, probably an energetic pulsar (such as PSR129-63) in a binary system producing gamma-rays because of pulsar wind/mass outflow interaction. We also accumulated may data concerning the radio source LSI 61 303, the possible counterpart of 2CG 135+01. We show that a possible anti-correlation between radio and gamma-ray emission exists. This anticorrelation is evident only in the energy range above 100 MeV, as demonstrated by the lack of it obtained from OSSE data. If confirmed, this anti-correlation would prove to be very important for the interpretation of the hundreds of unidentified gamma-ray sources currently discovered by EGRET near the Galactic plane, and would point to a new class of sources in addition to AGNs and isolated pulsars. We also completed the analysis of several time variable gamma-ray sources near the Galactic plane, with the discussion of evidence for transient emission from 2EG J1813-12 and 2EG J1828+01. We completed several investigations regarding gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), including the study of the brightness distribution for different spectral/duration GRB sub-classes, an investigation of acceleration processes and their consequences for GRB afterglow emission [61, the application of the synchrotron shock model of GRBs to X-ray energies.

Tavani, Marco↗