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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Reliability-Informed Economic and Energy Evaluation for Bi-Level Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study of Transmission and Hydraulic Manifold

Abstract Design for remanufacturing (DfRem) is one attractive strategy that encourages the reuse of a product and extends the product's life cycle. Traditional design processes often only consider product reliability at an early design stage. However, from the perspective of environmental sustainability, it is becoming increasingly important to evaluate the long-term economic and environmental impacts of design decisions during early-stage design. We propose a bi-level DfRem framework consisting of system-level reusability allocation and component-level design tradeoff analysis, considering reliability and product warranty policy. First, a system-level reusability allocation problem aims at a theoretical exploration of the design space where all the components comprising the system are allocated certain reuse rates to achieve target energy savings with minimum cost. Following the theoretical exploration at the system level, a component-level analysis looks at practical design options for each component and trades-off between the overall cost and energy consumption for multiple remanufacturing cycles. Both levels of the framework require modeling component reuse for multiple remanufacturing cycles, which we achieve by using a branched power-law model that provides probabilistic scenarios of reusing the component or replacing it with a new part. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with the case study of an infinitely variable transmission (IVT) used by some agricultural machines manufactured by John Deere and show snapshots of a prototype software tool that we developed for easy use by designers.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub (Final Report)

The Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub was a 2-year project (October 2023 – September 2025) conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) focused on advancing the feasibility of a commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) geologic storage hub in McKenzie County, North Dakota. The project’s objective was to investigate the potential that stacked storage complexes (multiple deep saline formations) can safely and economically store at least 50 million tonnes of CO 2 within 30 years. The captured CO 2 would be sourced from industrial emitters including project partner ONEOK, Inc.’s gas-processing plants and a planned gas-to-liquids facility. Drilling of the Roughrider 1 stratigraphic test well (14,979-ft total depth) was completed in November 2024. The wellbore intersected four candidate storage formations: Inyan Kara, Broom Creek, Mission Canyon, and Black Island–Deadwood. Operational challenges, including a stuck drill string, were resolved without long-term impact. A comprehensive logging and coring program was conducted, followed by successful well abandonment and site reclamation. Over 660 ft of 4-in. whole core was retrieved. Core plug samples were processed and analyzed for petrophysical and geochemical properties. Results confirmed promising porosity and permeability in the Inyan Kara and Broom Creek Formations and removal of the Mission Canyon and Black Island–Deadwood horizons from further investigation. Data derived from the logging and coring program were used to improve initial geologic models built from legacy data. CO 2 injection simulations showed that the Inyan Kara alone can feasibly store the target mass of CO 2 . Because of subtle differences in geologic structure and porosity trends between the formations, a stacked storage scenario using the Broom Creek and Inyan Kara Formations resulted in a larger overall plume area than using the Inyan Kara alone. Preliminary CO 2 pipeline routes from the industrial sources were mapped utilizing existing rights of way and evaluated for capacity and cost using U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management/National Energy Technology Laboratory models and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency emissions data. Integrating capture, transport, and storage cost estimates with policy incentives (e.g., 45Q credits) provided a total cost-per-ton analysis. Results indicate that the small scale of the volumes to be transported over the cumulative large distances does not support the project’s financial viability. However, the groundwork laid during this project from geological, regulatory, and social perspectives positions the Roughrider hub site as a promising candidate for commercial carbon storage in North Dakota, especially if the economy of scale is introduced for CO 2 transportation to the hub site.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Liquid Waste Transfers and their Impacts to the SRS Tank Farm to Support Operations and Closure

The Liquid Waste (LW) contractor at the Savannah River Site, Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC), supports the storage, processing, and safe disposition of legacy, radioactive liquid waste. The LW Tank Farms contain approximately 127 million liters (33.5 million gallons) of liquid waste within 43 active, underground waste tanks. To meet mission critical milestones for the closure of waste tanks and processing of 34 million liters (9 million gallons) of salt waste per year by the LW Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF), an increase in Tank Farm operations, including waste tank transfers, is required. Waste is compiled in salt and sludge batches in the Tank Farms and transferred to SWPF and the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) for treatment. All waste tank transfers, such as waste removal and batch compilation transfers, must be pre-evaluated to ensure Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) requirements are met via Evaluated Transfer Approval Forms (ETAFs). Facility conditions and configurations may change as a result of a waste transfer. These changes must be reflected in the Tank Farms Emergency Response Datasheet (ERD), which contains data utilized for operation and emergency situations.

Peterson, Shelby R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods and system for siting advanced nuclear reactors and evaluating energy policy concerns

There is a growing sociopolitical desire to develop cleaner energy sources in the United States and maintain energy security. Regardless of politics, many coal-fired electric plants have already been shut down and many utilities are vowing to retire their current coal-fired assets within the next two decades. Replacement power assets require consideration of appropriate siting. A geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is useful to assist utility and energy companies, as well as policymakers, to evaluate potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States. A GIS-based framework is simply a database of location information that allows for mapping, querying, modeling, and analyzing data based on location. The spatial output can be structured to be visual, allowing for easier analysis of location data. The need to site additional power assets, including renewable resources and clean power sources, such as nuclear, led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool discussed in this paper. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth visual analysis for siting options. Energy companies and other stakeholders can use OR-SAGE to procure feedback quickly and effectively on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. Policymakers can use OR-SAGE to analyze the impacts of future energy technology decisions, while balancing competing resource use. Overall, this paper discusses the recent use of OR-SAGE for these purposes and plans for future development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating the role of green infrastructure features in post-disaster recovery – Case Study of Beaumont, Texas after tropical storm imelda

While green infrastructure (GI) can provide multiple environmental benefits, its role in post-disaster economic and social recovery remains relatively underexplored. This article investigates whether different characteristics of GI, such as size, shape, connectivity, and amenities, affect the resilience of local businesses following Tropical Storm Imelda in Beaumont, Texas. The study utilizes SafeGraph mobility data to analyze foot traffic patterns to local businesses before, during, and after the disaster. FRAGSTATS indices measure GI characteristics (e.g., area, shape index, fractal dimension, proximity) while park features such as sports facilities, playgrounds, water features, and accessibility are cataloged through manual observation. Ordinary Least Squares regression models assess the relationship between park characteristics and post-recovery business performance, controlling for demographic variables including income, race, and poverty levels. Results indicate that certain GI attributes significantly enhance business recovery. Points of interest within walking distance (0.5 miles) of parks demonstrated better post-recovery status compared to those beyond this range. Specifically, parks with larger areas (p < 0.01) and more complex shapes measured by fractal dimension index (p < 0.01) had the strongest positive impact on surrounding businesses' recovery. Interestingly, playgrounds showed a negative correlation with recovery (p < 0.05), likely due to flood damage rendering them unusable during the immediate recovery period. Social vulnerability factors, including higher poverty rates and minority populations, negatively affected recovery outcomes despite park proximity.

Economic resilience↗
DOE OSTI2020

California Time-of-Use (TOU) Transition: Effects on Distributed Wind and Solar Economic Potential

Time-of-use (TOU) retail energy rates price electricity differently by the time of day, communicating to consumers the costs of supplying electricity diurnally. This study evaluates the impact of Decision D.15.07-001, which mandates a transition in 2020 to default TOU rates for residential ratepayers in California, on the economic viability of behind-the-meter distributed wind and solar systems. Previous studies have demonstrated that increasing wind and solar generation will materially affect the diurnal cost of wholesale electricity. As retail and wholesale prices become more aligned, this could affect the inter-technology economic viability of distributed generation. We assess economic viability through 'economic potential,' or the amount of generation capacity that exceeds a rate of return of 5.4%. In addition, we identify sensitivities of economic potential to capital costs and other techno-economic factors as well as the specific counties and sectors with substantial economic potential. We find that TOU implementation is projected to moderately increase economic potential of distributed wind and marginally decrease that of distributed solar. Over the long-term as variable renewable energy penetration increases in California, particularly utility-scale solar, net peak load and thus peak prices will shift later in the evening. To the extent that retail rates continue to evolve with wholesale prices, we find the changes could positively affect the value of wind generation more than that of solar generation. Over the scenarios considered, model results indicate realistic pathways to reaching a robust distributed wind market in California though solar economic potential was found to be substantially larger than that of wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic energy system modeling using hybrid physics-based and machine learning encoder–decoder models

Three model configurations are presented for multi-step time series predictions of the heat absorbed by the water and steam in a thermal power plant. The models predict over horizons of 2, 4, and 6 steps into the future, where each step is a 5-minute increment. The evaluated models are a pure machine learning model, a novel hybrid machine learning and physics-based model, and the hybrid model with an incomplete dataset. The hybrid model deconstructs the machine learning into individual boiler heat absorption units: economizer, water wall, superheater, and reheater. Each configuration uses a gated recurrent unit (GRU) or a GRU-based encoder–decoder as the deep learning architecture. Mean squared error is used to evaluate the models compared to target values. The encoder–decoder architecture is over 11% more accurate than the GRU only models. The hybrid model with the incomplete dataset highlights the importance of the manipulated variables to the system. The hybrid model, compared to the pure machine learning model, is over 10% more accurate on average over 20 iterations of each model. Automatic differentiation is applied to the hybrid model to perform a local sensitivity analysis to identify the most impactful of the 72 manipulated variables on the heat absorbed in the boiler. The models and sensitivity analyses are used in a discussion about optimizing the thermal power plant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of SO 2 on NiFe Nanoparticle Exsolution and Dissolution from LaFe 0.9 Ni 0.1 O 3 Perovskite Oxides

Ni-doped LaFeO 3 perovskite oxide is a promising cathode material for solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) designed for CO 2 /H 2 O coelectrolysis. Here, the performance of LaFe 0.9 Ni 0.1 O 3 is being investigated under real-world conditions that include exposure to acid gases, such as SO 2 , relevant to SOEC operation. Experiments show that LaFe 0.9 Ni 0.1 O 3 exsolves NiFe nanoparticles, along with the formation of surface SO 4 2– and SO 3 2– after being exposed to 200 ppm of SO 2 . This suggests that the ionic diffusion of Ni 3+ and Fe 3+ between the bulk and the surface remains unaffected throughout the exsolution–dissolution–exsolution cycle. Thermochemical water splitting has been employed as a probe reaction to evaluate the catalytic properties of the exsolved NiFe nanoparticles. These nanoparticles demonstrated improved hydrogen production compared to bare perovskite oxide substrates. However, after exposure to SO 2 , the formation of Fe-rich NiFe nanoparticles led to poor thermocatalytic performance and rapid deactivation of the perovskite at elevated temperatures. Density functional theory (DFT) analysis was utilized to validate the experimental findings, indicating a significantly negative reaction energy for water splitting over exsolved Fe, as well as stronger binding of SO 2 to Fe than to Ni. Computational analysis further suggests that the presence of surface sulfate promotes the formation of Fe-rich NiFe nanoparticles, aligning with the experimental results. Overall, this study clarifies how SO 2 affects the structure of SOEC perovskite oxide candidate materials. Future engineering efforts should focus on enhancing nanoparticle exsolution and sulfur resistance, which is crucial for improving the hydrogen production capacity of La-based perovskite oxides for electro- and thermocatalytic water splitting in real environments containing acid gases.

Najimu, Musa [Univ. of Southern California, Los An↗
DOE OSTI2025

Incident beam optics optimization for the single crystal neutron diffractometer Pioneer with a polarized beam option

Pioneer, a next-generation single-crystal neutron diffractometer, is under development for Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Second Target Station. Designed to address a wide range of scientific questions, Pioneer will deliver homogeneous neutron beams with customizable size and divergence and provide a polarized beam option. This article introduces its incident beam optics, highlighting the optimization methodology and the simulated performance. Pioneer will utilize a modified elliptical-straight guide for neutron transport and deploy slit packages and insertable apertures to control beam size and divergence. The optimized guide geometry matches the optimal-and-full-sample-illumination condition, and the beam control system effectively filters out unwanted neutrons while preserving the desired ones. In addition, we have found that polygon-approximated guides provide satisfactory transport efficiency and beam homogeneity, eliminating the need for truly curved guides. Further, to enhance neutronics performance and reduce cost, the coatings of supermirror elements are individually optimized to the lowest half-integer m-values that are sufficient to deliver the desired neutrons. After evaluating polarizing V-cavities and 3 He spin filters over the default polarized wavelength band of 1.2–5.5 Å, we selected a translatable multichannel polarizing V-cavity as the incident beam polarizer. Strategically placed at a location where the beam divergence is low and a large in-guide gap has negligible impact on transport efficiency, the optimized V-cavity achieves an average P 2 T of ~35%.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Internal and External Heat Sources on Cladding Microstructure and Rupture Performance

In the event of a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA), the primary supply of cooling water for a nuclear reactor is lost, leading to a significant pressure differential across the cladding wall. Without adequate cooling, the fuel rods continue to heat as a result of fission reactions. Research at Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) Severe Accident Test Station (SATS) is currently focused on evaluating fuel cladding performance using an external infrared lamp as a heat source, whereas legacy testing primarily utilized an internal heating approach. While external heating may better simulate the effect of neighboring fuel rods heating a central rod, it may not accurately represent the internal heat absorption from the fuel during accident transients. The heating dynamics depend greatly on the fuel rod's position within the bundle and the reactor. To fully understand the implications of a LOCA event and assess the influence of internal heating on cladding performance, combined internal heating and pressurization capability was developed at ORNL. Tests were conducted to compare cladding segments heated internally (representing heat from the fuel within the rod) and externally (representing heat from adjacent fuel rods). The findings indicate that both internal and external heating result in comparable rupture temperatures during 5°C/s laboratory LOCA tests and also agree with legacy test data. Axial temperature gradients and internal heat source dispersal were found to significantly impact cladding deformation and rupture geometry. Clear modifications were outlined to further improve the capability with heating rates above 5°C/s.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Internal and External Heat Sources on Cladding Microstructure and Rupture Performance

In the event of a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA), the primary supply of cooling water for a nuclear reactor is lost, leading to a significant pressure differential across the cladding wall. Without adequate cooling, the fuel rods continue to heat as a result of fission reactions. Research at Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) Severe Accident Test Station (SATS) is currently focused on evaluating fuel cladding performance using an external infrared lamp as a heat source, whereas legacy testing primarily utilized an internal heating approach. While external heating may better simulate the effect of neighboring fuel rods heating a central rod, it may not accurately represent the internal heat absorption from the fuel during accident transients. The heating dynamics depend greatly on the fuel rod's position within the bundle and the reactor. To fully understand the implications of a LOCA event and assess the influence of internal heating on cladding performance, combined internal heating and pressurization capability was developed at ORNL. Tests were conducted to compare cladding segments heated internally (representing heat from the fuel within the rod) and externally (representing heat from adjacent fuel rods). The findings indicate that both internal and external heating result in comparable rupture temperatures during 5°C/s laboratory LOCA tests and also agree with legacy test data. Axial temperature gradients and internal heat source dispersal were found to significantly impact cladding deformation and rupture geometry. Clear modifications were outlined to further improve the capability with heating rates above 5°C/s.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Occupant-Centric key performance indicators to inform building design and operations

Building performance indicators are widely used to guide building design and track and benchmark operational performance. Traditional building performance indicators mostly focus on the energy efficiency perspective. As occupants are the primary building service recipients in residential and most commercial buildings, their comfort and wellbeing are crucial. As such, this study first identified significant attributes of occupant-centric key performance indicators (KPIs) and analyzed the diverse factors that should be considered in formulating an occupant-centric KPI. Then a suite of occupant-centric KPIs were synthesized from the review and enhancement of existing occupant-related performance metrics. The proposed occupant KPIs represent the occupant lens on three integrative aspects of building performance: resource use (including energy and water), indoor environmental quality, and human–building interactions. A simulation-based case study was conducted to demonstrate how occupant-centric KPIs can be used to quantify the impacts of building operation changes from the occupants’ point of view. Highlights: Occupant-centric metrics are currently ad hoc and limited, yet crucial to inform building design and operations. Literature was reviewed to reveal the state-of-the-art and gaps of occupant-centric metrics. A suite of occupant-centric key performance indicators (KPIs) covering five groups of building services were synthesized. Proposed occupant KPIs represent three aspects of performance: resource use and demand, occupant comfort and health, and human–building interactions. A case study using whole building simulation was conducted to demonstrate the use of occupant-centric KPIs in evaluating building operations during a power outage.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of U-10Mo HALEU fuel element tolerances on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reactor safety and operational performance – Thermal hydraulics

The U.S. is coordinating efforts for the conversion of six U.S. High Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR) including one critical facility from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU). In order to continue the mission of these reactors, including the Massachusetts of Institute of Technology Reactor (MITR), and achieve similar performance, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) with a high-density metallic alloy of uranium with 10 wt% molybdenum (U-10Mo) is being evaluated. The impact of the fabrication specification and tolerances was assessed following the preliminary design of the MITR LEU fuel elements using the U-10Mo monolithic alloy. This research focuses on the analysis of fabrication specification impact on thermal hydraulics (TH) characteristic of the MITR LEU core as a function of the variation of the relevant fuel specification parameters (e.g., coolant channel gap thickness, fuel plate thickness, etc.). The analyses are performed based on an all-fresh LEU fuel conversion plan identified in a preliminary safety analysis report submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The reactor power margin to the onset of nucleate boiling (ONB) is assessed under the limiting safety system settings (LSSS), where a scram occurs, to ensure there is sufficient margin to the reactor safety limit, which is defined by the onset of flow instability that occurs after the ONB. The best estimate plus uncertainty approach is employed to analyze this TH characteristic, which yields realistic results while maintaining adequate conservatism, utilizing a statistical uncertainty propagation method with the STAT7 code. The TH characteristic is analyzed as a function of the variability of the specification parameters resulting from the fabrication process. The main findings of this study show that the MITR core can meet the TH safety and operational requirements at the all-LEU initial core startup (cycle 1), selected transition cycles (most reactive cycle and most limiting cycle: cycle 3 and 5, respectively) and equilibrium (cycle 14) cores under all limiting fabrication parameter combinations considered. In addition, the analyses show that the dependency of the core power margin to ONB on those specification parameters that have the most direct impact on TH performance is non-linear but monotonically decreasing within the specification tolerances. The third order polynomial fit curves are reported in detail for selected limiting cases and can serve as a powerful tool for future MITR fuel management in cases such as when HALEU supply is established that may allow additional cycle length or other operational benefits.

Conversion↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Revegetation on Soil Physical and Chemical Properties in Solar Photovoltaic Infrastructure

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is being deployed at an unprecedented rate. However, utility-scale solar energy development is land intensive and its large-scale installation can have negative impacts on the environment. In particular, solar energy infrastructure can require extensive landscape modification that transforms soil ecological functions, thereby impacting hydrologic, vegetative, and carbon dynamics. However, reintroducing native vegetation to solar PV sites may be a means of restoring their soils. To this end, we investigated critical soil physical and chemical parameters at a revegetated photovoltaic array and an adjacent reference grassland in Colorado, United States. Seven years after revegetation, we found that carbon and nitrogen remained lower in the PV soil than in the reference soil and contained a greater fraction of coarse particles. We also found that the PV modules introduced heterogeneity in the soil moisture distribution, with precipitation accumulating along the lower edges of panels. The redistribution of soil moisture by panel arrays could potentially be used in concert with planting strategies to maximize plant growth or minimize soil erosion, and should be considered when evaluating the potential to co-locate vegetation with solar infrastructure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The economic impacts of carbon emission trading scheme on building retrofits: A case study with U.S. medium office buildings

As a popular emission reduction tool, the carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) can potentially add an economic incentive for building owners to retrofit buildings in addition to the cost savings in energy. However, the additional economic benefits of building retrofits brought by ETS has not been quantitively investigated yet. Here, in order to fill this gap, this study proposed a systematic economic evaluation method to investigate the economic impacts of ETS on building retrofits. The reduction of the payback period and the increase of the return on investment are adopted as evaluation metrics. Using medium office buildings as an example, this study predicted the economic impacts of ETS on building retrofits at four locations in the U.S., and three different carbon prices were investigated. The results show that carbon prices have significant economic impacts on building retrofits. With the relatively low forecasted time-variant carbon prices (around 10 USD per ton), the economic impacts of ETS on building retrofits are small. When carbon prices increase, the impacts of ETS would be up to 25% for 50 USD per ton (current prices in European Union) and 51% for 100 USD per ton. Furthermore, locations with more fossil energy have higher relative changes in the payback period and ROI but are more sensitive to carbon prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗