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DOE OSTI2023

SCALE 6.2 Lattice Physics Performance Assessment

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relies on the lattice physics analysis capabilities of the SCALE code system to perform confirmatory licensing analyses. Either SCALE lattice physics code—TRITON/NEWT or Polaris—can be used to generate cross section data used by the PARCS nodal core simulator for full-core neutronics calculations. This report presents an assessment of the accuracy of SCALE lattice physics codes for preparation of lattice physics data that are used to support simulator codes such as the NRC’s PARCS, for UO 2 -mixed oxide (MOX)/Zr fueled light water reactor (LWR) analyses. Due to the nature of lattice physics calculations, critical reactor experiment benchmarks cannot be modeled in explicit detail in a lattice physics code. However, this limitation does not mean that these measurement data are not usable for lattice physics studies. Therefore, either geometry approximations or axial buckling must be implemented to determine the critical water height. These modeling limitations have led to development of a three-phase assessment strategy. In the first phase, selected critical experiment benchmarks are modeled using the SCALE 3D continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo (MC) code KENO, which is the most rigorous neutron transport method available in SCALE, with no approximations in the spatial, angle, or energy treatments. Biases and statistical uncertainties in quantities of interest such as k eff and pin power distributions are determined by comparing CE KENO results to experimental data. This first phase in the accuracy assessment is to demonstrate and establish the use of CE KENO as a reference solution for the second phase. In the second phase, 14 numerical test suites are used to compare SCALE lattice physics calculations with CE KENO as a reference solution. In the third phase, SCALE lattice physics depletion calculations are performed, and the spent fuel isotopic results are compared with available radiochemical assay measurements. Isotopic measurement comparisons provide quantitative assessment of isotopic density distribution predictions with the depletion models in SCALE lattice physics codes. This report documents results for all test suites. The assessment was performed using standard production techniques unless otherwise noted. Both TRITON/NEWT and Polaris exhibited acceptable accuracy for most test cases. For the few test cases in which acceptable accuracy criteria were not met, further code and data development are planned. The computer codes used in this assessment are as follows: SCALE 6.2 rev19189 (pre-release of 6.2.1) was used for CE KENO, TRITON/NEWT and Polaris (PWR only) calculations; SCALE 6.2.2 was used for Polaris calculations to address several updates in support of support boiling water reactor (BWR) lattice geometries. For this work, there is no difference between SCALE 6.2.1 and SCALE 6.2.2 beyond the inclusion of the Polaris BWR analysis capability; The ENDF/B-VII.1 continuous energy and 252 group libraries deployed in SCALE 6.2 were generated with AMPX 6.2 that is distributed with SCALE.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implement and Test 3D Mortar Contact in BISON

We leverage the extension of the generation of mortar segment meshes to three dimensions in MOOSE’s framework to extend thermomechanical modeling capabilities to problems with three dimensions. A modular approach to gap heat transfer physics using the mortar finite element method was created and documented, mechanical contact was extended to three dimensions—including frictional behavior, performance and ease of use were improved, and steps towards scalability of solid mechanics problems involving contact were taken. Many of these new developments are demonstrated in the simulation of 3D light-water reactor (LWR) problems, where the thermomechanical interface problem is solved using the mortar finite element method. Usage of the mortar framework has improved convergence in 2D problems and has enabled employing friction in 3D problems, of which we show results of a short, local stack of 3D pellets. Consequently, the benefits of mortar in terms of solution convergence and quality are extended to three dimensions. Section 2 discusses fundamental developments that enabled the simulation of practical mortar problems in three dimensions and other general improvements, including the reduction of the derivative container size, the modification of dual basis computations when edge dropping (lack of secondary element projection) takes place, the improvement of conditioning when employing the VCP in-edge dropping conditions, and code usability and quality improvements. These latter code enhancements include the migration of tests using “old” mortar contact constraints to using dual mortar with a semi-smooth Newton solution strategy and the reuse of lower dimensional domains for straightforwardly setting up a mortar thermomechanical LWR problem, i.e. the MOOSE action is employed for mechanical contact and the thermal LWR action is employed to capture the gas conductance, contact, and radiation components of gap heat transfer physics. Independently of the mortar LWR thermal action, we developed a modular approach to gap heat transfer that resides in MOOSE and can be leveraged, e.g., in metallic fuel problems. This approach, whose code design based on MOOSE’s user objects to model specific physics was proposed by the maintenance activity, is detailed in Section 3. Based on the dual mortar finite element method, the frictional contact constraints were extended to three dimensions. A block sheared in two directions in and out of contact with a rigid plane is employed in Section 4 to show the way the approach handles changes in frictional states (e.g. stick to slip) within a competitive number of Newton iterations. Equations and numerical results on the use of the VCP with Cartesian Lagrange multipliers, whose combination enables their direct condensation, are described in Section 5.3. Two-dimensional and three-dimensional BISON LWR simulations are discussed in Section 6. Particularly, a stack of five eccentric pellets with a surface defect is simulated and the effect of pellet-cladding friction is assessed. Finally, conclusions are outlined in Section 7.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of 3D Printing Techniques for Solid-State Lithium Batteries: Energy Storage Internship (Final Report)

The goal of this internship was to develop a solid polymer electrolyte with a suitable ionic conductivity and mechanical properties and integrate it with 3D printed cathode for solid state lithium batteries. While liquid electrolytes will have much higher conductivities and therefore higher power densities than solid electrolytes, batteries with such electrolytes suffer from extreme dendritic growth, short-circuiting, and general failure. Typically, batteries prevent this by including a solid yet porous separator somewhere between the anode and cathode to suppress dendritic growth. Solid polymer electrolyte acts as the conductive medium between electrodes as well as the separator that prevents failure from short-circuiting. The specific system explored is a vinyl ethylene carbonate (VEC) and polyethylene glycol diacrylate (PEGDA) mixed polymer solution using both 2,2’-azobis(2-methylpropionitrile) (AIBN) and Irgacure 819, respectively as thermal and photo- initiators. Electrochemical and rheological techniques were used to determine the optimal polymer solution and curing conditions. Through this research, multiple new pathways of exploration have been determined to create a usable solid polymer electrolyte through a combination of varying cure intensities and initiator concentrations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

High throughput, accurate gene annotation through AI and HPC-enabled structural analysis

With the advances in next generation sequencing technologies, the number of sequenced genomes is growing exponentially, resulting in a technology bottleneck for the translation of sequence information into usable hypotheses about the function of each gene. We have proposed leveraging our leadership high-performance computing (HPC) resources to help break this annotation bottleneck. Here we design an HPC-based framework to infer gene function from gene sequence by incorporating information about protein structure and interactions predicted by deep learning approaches. Accurate functional prediction and gene annotation using computational methods will facilitate breakthroughs in the genomic sciences essential to understanding and harnessing life processes in bacteria, fungi and plants. The development and applications of the state-of-the-art deep neural networks to protein structural modeling, interaction prediction, sequence comparison, and quality assessment of protein structural models will be made possible by leadership computational resources. These HPC-enabled bioinformatics and molecular modeling tools will provide powerful insights into molecular functions of genes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Security Self-Assessment Toolkit for Nuclear Materials Facilities: Focus on Insider Threat Mitigation

Theft or sabotage of weapons-usable nuclear materials is a global concern. To minimize this threat, establishing and maintaining an effective nuclear security regime is required to protect against criminal or other negligent acts. Use of a formalized insider threat mitigation program is one such security measure. Individuals who have or held authorized access to an organization's critical assets, such as nuclear materials, are considered "insiders." Insider threats, or insider adversaries, are motivated individuals who possess access, authority, and knowledge to conduct a malicious act or facilitate that of an external party. To thwart insider threats (both intentional and unintentional), organizations can formalize an enterprise-wide approach to identify and mitigate the unique risks presented by insiders. This report provides an approach to evaluate an insider threat mitigation program at facilities with nuclear materials. Formal program evaluations serve many purposes and can be designed using several different methods and techniques. This report presents a self-assessment approach to program evaluation whereby an organization can assess its strengths, identify key gaps, and set priorities for ongoing improvement efforts to mitigate insider threats. Results of the self-assessment can provide critical information to contribute to the continuous improvement of an organization’s insider threat mitigation program within eight specific domain areas.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Misr: Miniature Ignition Screening Rapid Compression Machine for Kinetic Measurements of Novel Fuels (Final Report)

High throughput ignition screening would be useful for evaluating fuels before scaled production. One method for doing this involves generating a map of ignition delay times over different conditions for each fuel blend. Constant condition ignition delay time maps can be used to estimate ignition for engines in prescribed thermodynamic trajectories. A Miniaturized Ignition Screening Rapid Compression Machine (MISR) has been developed and built at the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC) intending to generate those constant condition ignition delay time maps for low temperature chemistry relevant conditions. Some design features include a bellows-actuated driver section, which is lighter compared to other RCM designs, an adjustable brake section, and full optical access. The setup was designed to achieve reaction conditions (T > 600K and P < 100 bar with repetition rates of about 8 seconds per experiment). These conditions were meant to be relevant to low-to-intermediate temperature auto-ignition and for generation of data for developing relevant chemical kinetics models or ignition maps. Because of the compression characteristics and the heat loss characteristics of the MISR, the apparatus currently tests higher temperatures over shorter test times than what would be desirable, however there are some pathways to improved compression characteristics as detailed in this report. A detailed description of the MISR design and its operating mechanism is discussed. The team faced several challenges and setbacks in the construction and commissioning of the MISR, and those are highlighted, along with the modifications that were performed to get the MISR operational. To demonstrate the performance characteristics of the MISR, limited ignition delay experiments were conducted for ethanol fuel at different equivalence ratios (Φ), and those results were usable, but again test a higher temperature and shorter ignition delay time than initially intended.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Customer Experience at Public Charging Stations and Its Effects on the Purchase and Use of Electric Vehicles

To support the ChargeX Consortium’s mission to measure and significantly improve the reliability and usability of public charging infrastructure in North America, researchers in the consortium from the University of Washington (UW) reviewed the published literature and data from consortium members to evaluate how the consumer experience at public fast charging stations influences electric vehicle (EV) adoption.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Task 12 Sustainability - Methodological Guidelines on Net Energy Analysis of Photovoltaic Electricity (2nd Edition)

Net Energy Analysis (NEA) is a structured, comprehensive method of quantifying the extent to which a given energy source is able to provide a net energy gain (i.e., an energy surplus) to the end user, after accounting for all the energy losses occurring along the chain of processes that are required to exploit it (i.e., for its extraction, processing and transformation into a usable energy carrier, and delivery to the end user), as well as for all the additional energy 'investments' that are required in order to carry out the same chain of processes. However, this general framework leaves the individual practitioner with a range of choices that can affect the results and thus, the conclusions of a NEA study. The current IEA PVPS guidelines were developed to provide guidance on assuring consistency, balance, and quality to enhance the credibility and reliability of the results from photovoltaic (PV) NEAs. The guidelines represent a consensus among the authors - PV NEA experts in North America and Europe - for assumptions made on PV performance, process inputs and outputs, methods of analysis, and reporting of the results. Guidance is given on photovoltaic-specific parameters used as inputs in NEA and on choices and assumptions in inventory data analysis and on implementation of modelling approaches. A consistent approach towards system modelling, the functional unit, the system boundaries and allocation aspects enhance the credibility of PV electricity NEA studies and enables balanced NEA-based comparisons. Specifically, "apples-to-oranges" comparisons of different energy carriers (e.g., fuels vs. electricity) are not methodologically sound and are to be avoided in all cases; also, any comparison across renewable and non-renewable electricity generation technologies must clearly point out the intrinsically short-term nature of the NEA viewpoint, which does not capture the long-term sustainability implications of renewable vs. non-renewable primary energy harvesting and use: non-renewable primary energy resources are depleted and finally exhausted (irrespective of the size of the EROI), while renewable primary energy resources are not. This document provides an in-depth discussion of a common metric of NEA, namely the energy return on investment (EROI), and how this is to be interpreted vis-a-vis the deceptively similar-sounding metrics in the field of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA): cumulative energy demand (CED) and non-renewable cumulative energy demand (nr-CED) per unit output. Specifically, a number of key differences are highlighted between these metrics as applied to electricity production systems, which are listed in Table S-1.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Complete Evaluation on Advanced Reactor Machine Learning Subversion Attacks (Final)

Navigating through the world of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in nuclear reactors and their Instrumentation and Control (I&C) systems demands a careful, deliberate journey. AI’s capability to manage massive datasets and streamline control systems has indeed carved out a significant role in various sectors, including nuclear energy. However, while AI, and particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), bring a lot to the table in terms of operational efficiency and anomaly detection, they also expose the sector to a new breed of cybersecurity threats, like Inference Attacks, Adversarial Attacks, and Trojan Attacks. This guide is designed to be a straightforward manual, diving deep into the intertwining worlds of AI and cybersecurity within nuclear reactors, and tailoring insights for three crucial audiences: I&C Vendors/Developers, Nuclear Regulators, and Nuclear Reactor Operators and Cyber Defense Teams. (1) Section 2, directed at I&C Vendors/Developers, will provide a clear and focused look at several cybersecurity attacks, offering practical recommendations and detailed scenarios related to AI cybersecurity. This section isn’t just about identifying problems but also about giving solid, usable solutions. (2) Section 3, meant for Nuclear Regulators, gets straight to the point about regulations, policy suggestions, and guidelines that are needed to lay down a robust, secure, and ethical foundation for the application of AI in nuclear operations. The focus is on making sure that everything adheres to international standards and laws while being practicable and clear-cut. (3) Section 4, aimed at Nuclear Reactor Operators and Cyber Defense Teams, offers an exhaustive exploration and technical reports, with clear recommendations and scenario analyses vital to protect operational environments and guarantee the secure application of AI in nuclear reactor operations. The goal is simple: as we step into an era where AI becomes a fundamental element of our technological and energy infrastructures, this guide is here to act as a clear, direct handbook, ensuring that AI is implemented within the nuclear sector in a manner that is secure, responsible, and practical. It’s about striking a balance – optimizing the undeniable benefits offered by AI while securing and shielding against potential cyber threats as we move through this new and complex landscape.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of Rare-Earth Elements in Lignite Coal of the Williston Basin: Past Efforts and Ongoing Work

Rare-earth elements (REEs) have been a subject area of high interest for their unique properties. REEs are crucial materials used in an incredible array of consumer goods, energy system components, and military defense applications. While the United States has one operating REE mine, the product is sent overseas for refining into usable metals making the United States 100% import-reliant on these critical materials. This has led the Federal Government to declare the REE market an issue of national security. The Energy and Environmental Research Center (EERC) under funding provided by the Department of Energy (DOE) has undertaken efforts to determine if the lignite coal found in the Williston Basin has the potential to be an ore body containing sufficient quantities of REEs and Critical Minerals (CM) for extraction and processing. In one such effort, the EERC collected over 400 samples from the Williston Basin lignite coal seams including outcrops as well as active mines. Those efforts have been followed up with ongoing work under the U.S. DOE’s Carbon Ore, Rare Earth and Critical Minerals Initiative (CORE-CM) currently ongoing in the Williston Basin as well as other basins in the United States. This ongoing work in the Williston Basin characterizing REEs in coal has focused on the collection of new sampling and analysis of REEs in coal and building upon previous characterization work. This information is being used to understand the spatial distribution of REEs through mapping and 3D modeling. The goals of these efforts are to better understand the mechanisms for distribution of the REEs in lignite coal as well as their concentration and determine knowledge gaps in characterization and to start to build the database required to understand the potential resource in the Williston Basin.

Feole, Ian K.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improving the Discovery, Access, and Use of Water Data for Basin-Scale River Management: Phase 2 Workshop Report

This project assesses the value of accessible and usable water data for advancing river basin management in the U.S. This report summarizes the outcomes a stakeholder workshop that was held in May 2021, and a collection of interactive data stories about five river basins across the U.S. (Eel and Russian river basins in California, Wisconsin River basin in Wisconsin, and the Connecticut and Penobscot river basins in the New England region).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Version 5.1 Technical Reference Manual

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, natural gas, and autogas systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying leak sizes and rates, predicting physical effects, characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impacts on people. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards, and to provide developed models in a publicly-accessible toolkit usable by all stakeholders. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 5.1. The most significant changes for HyRAM+ version 5.1 from HyRAM+ version 5.0 are updated default leak frequency values for propane, new default component counts for different fuel types, and an improved fuel specification view in the graphical user interface.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2023

BatAnalysis - A Comprehensive Python Pipeline for Swift BAT Survey Analysis

The Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) is a coded-aperture gamma-ray instrument with a large field of view that primarily operates in survey mode when it is not triggering on transient events. The survey data consist of 80- channel detector plane histograms that accumulate photon counts over periods of at least 5 minutes. These histograms are processed on the ground and are used to produce the survey data set between 14 and 195 keV. Survey data comprise >90% of all BAT data by volume and allow for the tracking of long-term light curves and spectral properties of cataloged and uncataloged hard X-ray sources. Until now, the survey data set has not been used to its full potential due to the complexity associated with its analysis and the lack of easily usable pipelines. Here, we introduce the BatAnalysis Python package, a wrapper for HEASoftpy, which provides a modern, opensource pipeline to process and analyze BAT survey data. BatAnalysis allows members of the community to use BAT survey data in more advanced analyses of astrophysical sources, including pulsars, pulsar wind nebula, active galactic nuclei, and other known/unknown transient events that may be detected in the hard X-ray band. We outline the steps taken by the Python code and exemplify its usefulness and accuracy by analyzing survey data of the Crab Nebula, NGC 2992, and a previously uncataloged MAXI transient. The BatAnalysis package allows for ~18 yr of BAT survey data to be used in a systematic way to study a large variety of astrophysical sources.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bench-Scale Electrolytic Dissolution of Quarter-Scale FCA Cans

In 2016, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) led, in support of and under sponsorship of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3), the removal and transfer of the plutonium based Fast Critical Assembly (FCA) fuel from the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) Tokai facility to the Savannah River Site (SRS). The team also included JAEA, multiple organizations in Savannah River Nuclear Solutions (SRNS), International Nuclear Services, and many other entities. The FCA fuel removal project completion was a key deliverable for M3 to the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit and constituted the largest inventory of weapons-usable plutonium removed under the nonproliferation program. The FCA materials consist of thousands of stainless steel (SS) clad plates and hundreds of SS clad rods. The FCA fuel elements were packaged in a carrier can and stored at SRS pending disposition of the fuel. Following an assessment of candidate disposition options, SRNS identified electrolytic dissolution (ED) as the most promising disposition option for the FCA plates and their preferred option was endorsed by DOE. This option entails electrochemically dissolving the entire FCA carrier can with fuel elements and was based on bench-scale laboratory testing and historical work on processing SS-clad and zirconium-clad uranium-based fuel in the H-Canyon electrolytic dissolver (last operated in 1980). The FCA plate consists of a plutonium-aluminum metal alloy core hermitically sealed in SS cladding.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic CCS-EJ-SJ Database and Web Application - What's New

At the 2024 FECM/NETL Carbon Management Research Project Review Meeting, within the Carbon Transport and Storage Breakout Session 3, the presentation "Dynamic CCS-EJ-SJ Database and Web Application - What's New" highlights the critical tool designed to integrate environmental and social justice considerations into Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects. Key features include an interactive dashboard for data access and visualization, which supports stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding CCS implementation, and updated data layers. The latest version enhances data integration and usability, providing a comprehensive resource for assessing the social and environmental impacts of CCS projects. There are 7 categories in the CCS EJSJ v2 database (released 03/31/2024): environmental justice, energy justice, economic justice, social justice, ecosystem assets, clean energy, and infrastructure. Most of the layers within each category have been updated in this version. As compared to the old database, there are 3 new categories in the v2 database: ecosystem assets, clean energy, and infrastructure.

Sharma, Maneesh↗

DOE OSTI2024

Homomorphic Encryption for Electrical Metering Aggregation: Protecting the Privacy of Building Tenants

Electrical meters are devices that measure consumer electricity usage. The data collected by these meters is necessary for utility billing and electrical grid management but can also be used to assess the environmental impact of buildings. Prior research has found that unprotected metering data could potentially be used to infer some information about the behaviors of building tenants by detecting changes in electricity usage. For example, a period of low electricity usage could suggest that the tenants are not in the building. As smart metering becomes more common, there is a growing need for data privacy protections for metering data that do not negatively impact the quality and availability of data used for energy management and billing applications. To identify potential solutions, we developed a Python-based data aggregation platform to analyze the potential efficacy of privacy-enhancing technologies for energy metering applications. This platform aggregates groups of metering sites into virtual buildings, which could potentially detach changes in electrical activity from individual tenants, making it more difficult to track the activity of a specific tenant. To further protect data during analysis, this project utilizes homomorphic encryption as part of its initial approach. Homomorphic encryption offers a means of protecting energy consumption data while permitting mathematical operations to be performed without the need to know the data contents. This allows for data to be processed into usable statistics without revealing energy consumption information. A series of homomorphic encryption libraries were evaluated to determine their applicability and limitations in the context of metering data. The use of these techniques may help to reassure consumers and encourage further adoption of smart grid infrastructure.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling graphene sheet growth and dynamical matrix calculations using molecular dynamics

Molecular dynamics (MD) has been an incredibly useful tool to model physical processes that were synthesized experimentally but not fully understood. MD, through the use of semi-empirical inter-atomic potentials, has allowed understanding of different physical processes in materials science. Yet as well as providing useful insights into materials science, molecular dynamics has a wider range of usability. In this report, I will be detailing how MD can be used to study graphene formation from a carbon liquid which requires high temperatures and pressures. Beyond this, I will describe the usefulness of MD for understanding the physics for phonon transport quantum sensors. To do this, MD was employed to determine the dynamical matrix by treating atoms as coupled oscillators. An accurate understanding of the dynamical matrix of a system is required to calculate the non-equilibrium Green’s function used to describe the phonon transport within phonon wave-guides. I found that, across multiple pressures and temperatures, randomly placed carbon atoms will show evidence of pent-first formation with semi-empirical models. Density functional theory (DFT), on the other hand, was too computationally expensive to use for full scale MD simulations, but we have the possibility of training a machine learned interatomic potential to approximate DFT for carbon in the environments being studied for pent-first graphene sheet formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Independent Review of the Proof-of-Concept Cyber100 Compass Cybersecurity Risk Tool

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER), and Office of Electricity (OE) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop a method and tool to enable electric utilities to understand and manage the risk of cybersecurity events that can lead to physical effects like blackouts. This tool, called Cyber100 Compass, uses cybersecurity data elicited from cybersecurity experts, then incorporates that data into a tool designed to be usable by cybersecurity non-experts who understand the system itself. The tool estimates dollar-valued risks for a current or postulated future electric power digital control configuration, in order to enable utility risk planners to prioritize among proposed cybersecurity risk mitigation options. With the development of the Cyber100 Compass tool for quantification of future cyber-physical security risks, NREL has taken an initial bold step in the direction of enabling and indeed encouraging electric utilities to address the potential for cybersecurity incidents to produce detrimental physical effects related to electric power delivery. As part of the Cyber100 Compass development process, DOE funded NREL to seek out an independent technical review of the risk methodology embodied in the tool. NREL requested this review from Sandia National Laboratories, and made available to Sandia a very late version of the project report, as well as NREL personnel to provide clarification and to respond to questions. This paper provides the result of the independent review activity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗