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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2011

Gamow-Teller unit cross sections for (t,{sup 3}He) and ({sup 3}He,t) reactions

The proportionality between differential cross sections at vanishing linear momentum transfer and Gamow-Teller transition strength, expressed in terms of the unit cross section ({sigma}{sub GT}), was studied as a function of target mass number for (t,{sup 3}He) and ({sup 3}He,t) reactions at 115A MeV and 140A MeV, respectively. Existing ({sup 3}He,t) and (t,{sup 3}He) data on targets with mass number 12{<=}A{<=}120 were complemented with new and reevaluated (t,{sup 3}He) data on proton, deuteron, {sup 6}Li, and {sup 12}C targets. It was found that in spite of the small difference in beam energies between the two probes, the unit cross sections have a nearly identical and simple dependence on target mass number A, for A{>=}12: {sigma}{sub GT}=109/A{sup 0.65}. The factorization of the unit cross sections in terms of a kinematical factor, a distortion factor, and the strength of the effective spin-isospin transfer nucleus-nucleus interaction was investigated. Simple phenomenological functions depending on mass number A were extracted for the latter two. By comparison with plane and distorted-wave Born approximation calculations, it was found that the use of a short-range approximation for knock-on exchange contributions to the transition amplitude results in overestimated cross sections for reactions involving the composite ({sup 3}He,t) and (t,{sup 3}He) probes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A 75 kVA Intelligent Power Stages (IPS) Unit Design for Future Grid-interface Application

The demand for grid-interface converter with flexible dc bus is driven by the fast development of energy storage system (ESS), electric vehicle (EV) charging system, and versatile residential load. This paper first proposes a two-stage intelligent power stage (IPS) unit for future grid-interface applications. To achieve zero common-mode (CM) voltage emissions, step-up and step-down voltage gain, a 3-level four-switch buck-boost (3-L FSBB) dc-dc converter is adopted with fully zero voltage switching (ZVS). In one IPS unit, an advanced fiberoptic communication with sub-nanosecond synchronization is developed for different enhanced gate drivers. Moreover, an enhanced gate driver integrated current and voltage sensors is designed for monitoring and diagnostics. To achieve a whole low-profile design, three 12 oz heavy copper planar ac inductors are designed and implemented. Finally, a 75 kVA IPS unit was built to verify both the thermal and electrical design.

Cao, Yuliang↗
DOE OSTI2018

Laboratory Demonstration of Variable-Speed Packaged Air-Conditioning Units for Provision of Frequency Regulation Services

Buildings are responsible for more than 73% of the total electricity use in the United States and one-third of the building electricity use is attributed to heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. If properly used, buildings could offer significant frequency control reserves to the power grid. This paper presents laboratory test results demonstrating the potential to use variable-speed packaged rooftop units for frequency regulation services. The test unit along with the proposed feedback control represents an add-on solution that requires minimum control upgrades to enable the provision of ancillary services. Test results show that HVAC systems can provide high-quality frequency regulation services with performance scores of up to 0.95. A first-order economic analysis also reveals significant economic benefits for building owners to participate in ancillary services.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

An Improved Stochastic Unit Commitment Formulation to Accommodate Wind Uncertainty

The United States targets to supply 20% of its electricity generation using wind energy by 2030. The expansion of renewable resources, especially weather-based resources such as wind, creates more uncertainty and variability in the operation of the power grid. New methods and approaches in electricity market operations are needed to efficiently manage the continuing increase in variability and uncertainty caused by expanding intermittent wind. This paper proposes an improved stochastic programming approach for incorporating wind uncertainty into energy markets. The proposed formulation improves the two-stage stochastic unit commitment problem by introducing a dynamic decision making approach similar to a multi-stage formulation in the presence of wind power scenarios which are not well represented by a scenario tree. The numerical results present up to 1%-2% decrease in operational costs compared to the two-stage stochastic unit commitment formulation.

Electricity markets↗
DOE OSTI2014

Bioenergy crop productivity and potential climate change mitigation from marginal lands in the United States: An ecosystem modeling perspective

Growing biomass feedstocks from marginal lands is becoming an increasingly attractive choice for producing biofuel as an alternative energy to fossil fuels. Here, we used a biogeochemical model at ecosystem scale to estimate crop productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from bioenergy crops grown on marginal lands in the United States. Two broadly tested cellulosic crops, switchgrass, and Miscanthus, were assumed to be grown on the abandoned land and mixed crop–vegetation land with marginal productivity. Production of biomass and biofuel as well as net carbon exchange and nitrous oxide emissions were estimated in a spatially explicit manner. We found that, cellulosic crops, especially Miscanthus could produce a considerable amount of biomass, and the effective ethanol yield is high on these marginal lands. For every hectare of marginal land, switchgrass and Miscanthus could produce 1.0–2.3 kl and 2.9–6.9 kl ethanol, respectively, depending on nitrogen fertilization rate and biofuel conversion efficiency. Nationally, both crop systems act as net GHG sources. Switchgrass has high global warming intensity (100–390 g CO 2 eq l –1 ethanol), in terms of GHG emissions per unit ethanol produced. Miscanthus , however, emits only 21–36 g CO 2 eq to produce every liter of ethanol. To reach the mandated cellulosic ethanol target in the United States, growing Miscanthus on the marginal lands could potentially save land and reduce GHG emissions in comparison to growing switchgrass. Furthermore, the ecosystem modeling is still limited by data availability and model deficiencies, further efforts should be made to classify crop–specific marginal land availability, improve model structure, and better integrate ecosystem modeling into life cycle assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Determining spatially varying profit‐maximizing management practices for miscanthus and switchgrass production in the rainfed United States

Abstract Determining optimal management practices for the profitable production of perennial energy crops is critical for scaling up production beyond experimental levels. Although many experimental field studies have examined the effects of management practices on the performance of miscanthus and switchgrass, there are no recommendations for economically optimal nitrogen (N) application rates and how they should vary spatially and with the age of the energy crop as well as on optimal rotation age of the energy crop to maximize profits. We develop a modeling framework to determine economically optimal crop management decisions and simulate the variability under various scenarios for miscanthus and switchgrass production across 2287 counties in the rainfed United States. We find that profit‐maximizing N recommendations for these crops vary across maturity stages and regions and can increase the landowner's profits compared with a uniform N rate across ages and regions. We also find that the optimal rotation for these crops is shorter than the productive physical lifespan (15–20 and 10 years for miscanthus and switchgrass, respectively). Specifically, the N rate that maximizes the economic returns is negligible for miscanthus and 111 kg ha −1 for switchgrass production at age 2. The mean profit‐maximizing N rate increases with age for miscanthus, peaking at 151 kg ha −1 at age 11 before declining to 114 kg ha −1 at the optimal rotation age of 13 years while that for switchgrass is 150 kg ha −1 for middle‐aged stands and declines to 114 kg ha −1 at the optimal rotation of 8–9 years. We find that miscanthus is the most profitable energy crop in the northern region of the rainfed United States while switchgrass is most profitable in the south of the rainfed United States. Our findings are useful for improving assessments of the profitability of energy crops and guiding future management decisions by landowners.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Degradation of lignin β-aryl ether units in Arabidopsis thaliana expressing LigD , LigF and LigG from Sphingomonas paucimobilis SYK-6

Here, lignin is a major polymer in the secondary plant cell wall and composed of hydrophobic interlinked hydroxyphenylpropanoid units. The presence of lignin hampers conversion of plant biomass into biofuels; plants with modified lignin are therefore being investigated for increased digestibility. The bacterium Sphingomonas paucimobilis produces lignin-degrading enzymes including LigD, LigF and LigG involved in cleaving the most abundant lignin interunit linkage, the β-aryl ether bond. In this study, we expressed the LigD , LigF and LigG ( LigDFG ) genes in Arabidopsis thaliana to introduce postlignification modifications into the lignin structure. The three enzymes were targeted to the secretory pathway. Phenolic metabolite profiling and 2D HSQC NMR of the transgenic lines showed an increase in oxidized guaiacyl and syringyl units without concomitant increase in oxidized β-aryl ether units, showing lignin bond cleavage. Saccharification yield increased significantly in transgenic lines expressing LigDFG , showing the applicability of our approach. Additional new information on substrate specificity of the LigDFG enzymes is also provided.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

CURRENT STATUS OF THE CHARACTERIZATION OF RPV MATERIALS HARVESTED FROM THE DECOMMISSIONED ZION UNIT 1 NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

The decommissioning of Units 1 and 2 of the Zion Nuclear Power Station in Zion, Illinois, after ~ 15 effective full-power years of service presents a unique opportunity to characterize the degradation of in-service reactor pressure vessel (RPV) materials and to assess currently available models for predicting radiation embrittlement of RPV steels [1-3]. Moreover, through-wall thickness attenuation and property distributions are being obtained and the results to be compared with surveillance specimen test data. It is anticipated that these efforts will provide a better understanding of materials degradation associated with extending the lifetime of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) beyond 60 years of service and subsequent license renewal. In support of extended service and current operations of the US nuclear reactor fleet, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), through the U.S. Department of Energy, Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, coordinated procurement of materials, components, and other items of interest from the decommissioned Zion NPPs. In this report, harvesting, cutting sample blocks, machining test specimens, test plans, and the current status of materials characterization of the RPV from the decommissioned Zion NPP Unit 1 will be discussed. The primary foci are the circumferential, Linde 80 flux, wire heat 72105 (WF-70) beltline weld and the A533B base metal from the intermediate shell harvested from a region of peak fluence (0.7 X 1019 n/cm2, E > 1.0 MeV) on the internal surface of the Zion Unit 1 vessel. Following the determination of the through-thickness chemical composition, Charpy impact, fracture toughness, tensile, and hardness testing are being performed to characterize the through-thickness mechanical properties of base metal and beltline-weld materials. In addition to mechanical properties, microstructural characterizations are being performed using various microstructural techniques, including Atom Probe Tomography, Small Angle Neutron Scattering, and Positron Annihilation Spectroscopy

Rosseel, T. M.↗
DOE OSTI2011

Verification of monitor unit calculations for non-IMRT clinical radiotherapy: Report of AAPM Task Group 114

The requirement of an independent verification of the monitor units (MU) or time calculated to deliver the prescribed dose to a patient has been a mainstay of radiation oncology quality assurance. The need for and value of such a verification was obvious when calculations were performed by hand using look-up tables, and the verification was achieved by a second person independently repeating the calculation. However, in a modern clinic using CT/MR/PET simulation, computerized 3D treatment planning, heterogeneity corrections, and complex calculation algorithms such as convolution/superposition and Monte Carlo, the purpose of and methodology for the MU verification have come into question. In addition, since the verification is often performed using a simpler geometrical model and calculation algorithm than the primary calculation, exact or almost exact agreement between the two can no longer be expected. Guidelines are needed to help the physicist set clinically reasonable action levels for agreement. This report addresses the following charges of the task group: (1) To re-evaluate the purpose and methods of the ''independent second check'' for monitor unit calculations for non-IMRT radiation treatment in light of the complexities of modern-day treatment planning. (2) To present recommendations on how to perform verification of monitor unit calculations in a modern clinic. (3) To provide recommendations on establishing action levels for agreement between primary calculations and verification, and to provide guidance in addressing discrepancies outside the action levels. These recommendations are to be used as guidelines only and shall not be interpreted as requirements.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Characterization of a clinical unit for digital radiography based on irradiation side sampling technology

Purpose: A characterization of a clinical unit for digital radiography (FUJIFILM FDR D-EVO) is presented. This system is based on the irradiation side sampling (ISS) technology and can be equipped with two different scintillators: one traditional gadolinium-oxysulphide phosphor (GOS) and a needle structured cesium iodide (CsI) phosphor panel.Methods: The characterization was achieved in terms of response curve, modulation transfer function (MTF), noise power spectra (NPS), detective quantum efficiency (DQE), and psychophysical parameters (contrast-detail analysis with an automatic reading of CDRAD images). For both scintillation screens the authors accomplished the measurements with four standard beam conditions: RAQ3, RQA5, RQA7, and RQA9.Results: At the Nyquist frequency (3.33 lp/mm) the MTF is about 35% and 25% for CsI and GOS detectors, respectively. The CsI scintillator has better noise properties than the GOS screen in almost all the conditions. This is particularly true for low-energy beams, where the noise for the GOS system can go up to a factor 2 greater than that found for CsI. The DQE of the CsI detector reaches a peak of 60%, 60%, 58%, and 50% for the RQA3, RQA5, RQA7, and RQA9 beams, respectively, whereas for the GOS screen the maximum DQE is 40%, 44%, 44%, and 35%. The contrast-detail analysis confirms that in the majority of cases the CsI scintillator is able to provide improved outcomes to those obtained with the GOS screen.Conclusions: The limited diffusion of light produced by the ISS reading makes possible the achievement of very good spatial resolution. In fact, the MTF of the unit with the CsI panel is only slightly lower to that achieved with direct conversion detectors. The combination of very good spatial resolution, together with the good noise properties reached with the CsI screen, allows achieving DQE on average about 1.5 times greater than that obtained with GOS. In fact, the DQE of unit equipped with CsI is comparable to the best alternative methods available which are based on the same technology, and similar to others based on an a-Se direct conversion detectors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-I-71: KVp Dependence of Transmitted Exposure for a Radiography Unit

Purpose: To investigate the kVp dependence of the transmitted exposure for a radiography x-ray unit. Methods: The study used a GE DiscoveryTM XR656 DR unit, a 30 (L) × 30 (W) × 25 cm thick Lucite phantom, two anthropomorphic phantoms (an Alderson RS-310 chest phantom and a 3M skull phantom), an Unfors detector, and a Radcal 10x9-6 ion chamber. We measured the entrance exposure and transmitted exposure of each phantom at 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120 kVp for mAs range from 2.5 to 200 mAs, without any additional filter. The FOV is 30×30 cm for the Lucite and chest phantom (AP view), and 20×20 cm for skull phantom (Lateral view). The transmitted exposure was measured at the phantom center of the x-ray exit side. For chest phantom, the transmitted exposures at 3 inch upper right and upper left from the center were also measured. We also checked the reproducibility and accuracy of the DR unit. Results: For each phantom, at every kVp and mAs setting, the transmitted exposure per mAs was calculated and normalized by the relative entrance exposure; the averaged transmitted exposure per mAs at each specific kVp was then determined. For chest phantom, the mean transmitted exposure per mAs was the average of three exit locations. The averaged transmitted exposure per mAs was fit as a power function of kVp. The result showed the transmitted exposure per mAs was approximately proportional to third power of the kVp for two anthropomorphic phantoms and forth power of the kVp for the Lucite phantom. Conclusion: The traditional assumption of fifth power kVp dependence to the transmitted exposure is inaccurate. At the normal radiography kVp range, the transmitted exposure is approximately proportional to third power of the kVp for a typical patient and up to forth power of the kVp for a large patient.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-70: Feasibility Study of Dynamic Arc and IMRT Treatment Plans Utilizing Vero Treatment Unit and IPlan Planning Computer for SRS/FSRT Brain Cancer Patients

Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of utilizing Dynamic Arc (DA) and IMRT with 5mm MLC leaf of VERO treatment unit for SRS/FSRT brain cancer patients with non-invasive stereotactic treatments. The DA and IMRT plans using the VERO unit (BrainLab Inc, USA) are compared with cone-based planning and proton plans to evaluate their dosimetric advantages. Methods: The Vero treatment has unique features like no rotational or translational movements of the table during treatments, Dynamic Arc/IMRT, tracking of IR markers, limitation of Ring rotation. Accuracies of the image fusions using CBCT, orthogonal x-rays, and CT are evaluated less than ∼ 0.7mm with a custom-made target phantom with 18 hidden targets. 1mm margin is given to GTV to determine PTV for planning constraints considering all the uncertainties of planning computer and mechanical uncertainties of the treatment unit. Also, double-scattering proton plans with 6F to 9F beams and typical clinical parameters, multiple isocenter plans with 6 to 21 isocenters, and DA/IMRT plans are evaluated to investigate the dosimetric advantages of the DA/IMRT for complex shape of targets. Results: 3 Groups of the patients are divided: (1) Group A (complex target shape), CI's are same for IMRT, and DGI of the proton plan are better by 9.5% than that of the IMRT, (2) Group B, CI of the DA plans (1.91+/−0.4) are better than cone-based plan, while DGI of the DA plan is 4.60+/−1.1 is better than cone-based plan (5.32+/−1.4), (3) Group C (small spherical targets), CI of the DA and cone-based plans are almost the same. Conclusion: For small spherical targets, cone-based plans are superior to other 2 plans: DS proton and DA plans. For complex or irregular plans, dynamic and IMRT plans are comparable to cone-based and proton plans for complex targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-572: Beam Characteristics and Treatment Planning Commissioning for a New Proton Therapy Unit

Purpose: A single-room proton system, the Mevion S250, was introduced into the arena of proton radiotherapy by Mevion Medical Systems. The first unit was installed and operates at the S. Lee Kling Proton Therapy Center at Barnes-Jewish Hospital. The objective of this abstract is to report the system's beam characteristics and Eclipse commissioning. Methods: Commissioning data were acquired for modelling longitudinal fluence, virtual source position, effective source position, source size and Bragg peaks in Eclipse. Stoichiometric CT calibration was generated via ICRU44 human. Spread-out Bragg peaks (SOBP) were measured with Parallel Plate Chamber and profiles with solid state detector for model validation. Heterogeneity effects were measured with bone and lung inserts in the beam line. RT dose was computed in a virtual water phantom, and exported from Eclipse to compare with measurements at various depths and axis. SOBPs were fine-tuned with partial shining correction and entry correction to match measurements. Output factor was measured for each individual field with an ADCL ion chamber in a water tank and fitted to a polynomial function to cross-check the monitor unit verification. Results: Ranges of all 24 options were measured within ±1mm tolerance. Modulations met a ±1mm or ±2% tolerance. SOBP flatness met a ±3% tolerance. Distal fall off (80%-20%) were measured between 6mm and 7mm for all options. Virtual source positions varied between 177cm and 195cm, decreasing with field size and range. SOBP generated by Eclipse agreed with measurements within ±3% in the entry region, and ±1%/±1mm in other regions. Sanity check for output achieved 5% accuracy in 98% of cases. Conclusion: The commissioning of the first Mevions S250 proton therapy system met specifications. The unit has been put in clinical operation since 12/17/2013.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-557: Monte Carlo Modeling of Philips RT-250 Orthovoltage Unit for Beam Spectrum Modulation

Purpose: To develop and validate a Monte Carlo (MC) model of a Phillips RT-250 orthovoltage unit to test various beam spectrum modulation strategies for in vitro/vivo studies. A model of this type would enable the production of unconventional beams from a typical orthovoltage unit for novel therapeutic applications such as gold nanoparticle-aided radiotherapy. Methods: The MCNP5 code system was used to create a MC model of the head of RT-250 and a 30 × 30 × 30 cm{sup 3} water phantom. For the x-ray machine head, the current model includes the vacuum region, beryllium window, collimators, inherent filters and exterior steel housing. For increased computational efficiency, the primary x-ray spectrum from the target was calculated from a well-validated analytical software package. Calculated percentage-depth-dose (PDD) values and photon spectra were validated against experimental data from film and Compton-scatter spectrum measurements. Results: The model was validated for three common settings of the machine namely, 250 kVp (0.25 mm Cu), 125 kVp (2 mm Al), and 75 kVp (2 mm Al). The MC results for the PDD curves were compared with film measurements and showed good agreement for all depths with a maximum difference of 4 % around dmax and under 2.5 % for all other depths. The primary photon spectra were also measured and compared with the MC results showing reasonable agreement between the two, validating the input spectra and the final spectra as predicted by the current MC model. Conclusion: The current MC model accurately predicted the dosimetric and spectral characteristics of each beam from the RT-250 orthovoltage unit, demonstrating its applicability and reliability for beam spectrum modulation tasks. It accomplished this without the need to model the bremsstrahlung xray production from the target, while significantly improved on computational efficiency by at least two orders of magnitude. Supported by DOD/PCRP grant W81XWH-12-1-0198.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-67: Correction Factors for Monitor Unit Verification of Clinical Electron Beams

Purpose: Monitor units calculated by electron Monte Carlo treatment planning systems are often higher than TG-71 hand calculations for a majority of patients. Here I’ve calculated tables of geometry and heterogeneity correction factors for correcting electron hand calculations. Method: A flat water phantom with spherical volumes having radii ranging from 3 to 15 cm was created. The spheres were centered with respect to the flat water phantom, and all shapes shared a surface at 100 cm SSD. D{sub max} dose at 100 cm SSD was calculated for each cone and energy on the flat phantom and for the spherical volumes in the absence of the flat phantom. The ratio of dose in the sphere to dose in the flat phantom defined the geometrical correction factor. The heterogeneity factors were then calculated from the unrestricted collisional stopping power for tissues encountered in electron beam treatments. These factors were then used in patient second check calculations. Patient curvature was estimated by the largest sphere that aligns to the patient contour, and appropriate tissue density was read from the physical properties provided by the CT. The resulting MU were compared to those calculated by the treatment planning system and TG-71 hand calculations. Results: The geometry and heterogeneity correction factors range from ∼(0.8–1.0) and ∼(0.9–1.01) respectively for the energies and cones presented. Percent differences for TG-71 hand calculations drop from ∼(3–14)% to ∼(0–2)%. Conclusion: Monitor units calculated with the correction factors typically decrease the percent difference to under actionable levels, < 5%. While these correction factors work for a majority of patients, there are some patient anatomies that do not fit the assumptions made. Using these factors in hand calculations is a first step in bringing the verification monitor units into agreement with the treatment planning system MU.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Natural climate solutions for the United States

Limiting climate warming to <2°C requires increased mitigation efforts, including land stewardship, whose potential in the United States is poorly understood. We quantified the potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)—21 conservation, restoration, and improved land management interventions on natural and agricultural lands—to increase carbon storage and avoid greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. We found a maximum potential of 1.2 (0.9 to 1.6) Pg CO 2 e year -1 , the equivalent of 21% of current net annual emissions of the United States. At current carbon market prices (USD 10 per Mg CO 2 e), 299 Tg CO 2 e year -1 could be achieved. NCS would also provide air and water filtration, flood control, soil health, wildlife habitat, and climate resilience benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

“Soft” modes of the excitation spectrum constructed on perturbations of the Abrikosov lattice with a single flux quantum in the unit cell

We have analyzed the spectrum of gapless excitations emerging upon the perturbation of the Abrikosov lattice with a single flux quantum in the unit cell. Superconductors with Ginzburg–Landau parameter κ close to unity are of special interest. We have determined the spectrum of gapless excitations close to zeroth shear modes for an arbitrary angle ϕ between the unit cell vectors. Analysis of the excitation spectra of triangular and square lattices with a single flux quantum in the unit cell has shown that solutions with a number of flux quanta greater than one exist at least in the range of parameters κ close to unity (κ > 1) and give smaller values of the free energy as compared to its values for a triangular lattice with a single flux quantum. For small values of momentum k (in the k{sup 2} approximation), the excitation spectrum of the “transverse” mode in the triangular lattice is independent of the direction of the momentum lying in the plane perpendicular to the magnetic field. For the square lattice (ϕ = π/2), the transverse mode is anisotropic in the k{sup 2} approximation also.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dominant Time Scales of Potentially Predictable Precipitation Variations across the Continental United States

While low-frequency variations in precipitation amount, occurrence counts (hereafter “occurrence”), and intensity can take place on seasonal to multidecadal time scales, it is often unclear at which time scales these precipitation variations can be ascribed to potentially predictable, climate-induced changes versus simple, stochastic (i.e., random) precipitation event evolutions. This paper seeks to isolate the dominant time scales at which potentially predictable changes in observed precipitation characteristics occur over the continental United States and analyze sources of revealed potentially predictable precipitation variations for particular regions. The results highlight that at interannual time scales (here defined as those shorter than 7 years), the potential for predicting annual precipitation amounts tends to be higher than for annual event occurrence or intensity, with interannual potential predictability highest in both relatively dry and wet locations and lowest in transition regions. By contrast, at time scales greater than 7 years the potential for predicting annual event occurrence tends to be higher than amount or intensity, with >20-yr time scale potential predictability highest in relatively wet locations and lowest in relatively dry locations. To highlight the utility of this type of analysis, two robust signals are selected for further investigation, including 1) approximately 10-yr time scale variations in potentially predictable annual amounts over the northwestern United States and 2) 20–60-yr time scale variations in potentially predictable annual event occurrence over the southwestern United States. While mechanistic drivers for these observed variations are still being investigated, concurrent and precursor climate-state estimates in the atmosphere and ocean—principally over the Pacific sector—are provided, the monitoring of which may help realize the potential for predicting precipitation variations in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗