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At least 631 records · Page 35

Precision X-band Doppler and ranging navigation for current and future Mars exploration missions

This paper describes a navigation error covariance analysis of two scenarios derived from the Mars Observer mission and the planned Mars Environmental SURvey (MESUR) Pathfinder mission, respectively. The analysis was performed to establish the potential navigational performance of the X-band tracking system in NASA's Deep Space Network, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the predicted performance to variations in the quantity of data acquired, the ground system error modeling assumptions, and data reduction schemes. The simulated data arcs used in the analysis are representative of the actual data arcs that will be used to predict the aim point for the Mars orbit insertion maneuver, in the case of Mars Observer, and the interplanetary trajectory aim point corresponding to the target Mars landing site in the case of MESUR Pathfinder. The results indicate that with a suitable sequential data reduction scheme and accurate calibrations of instrumentation, transmission media, and platform model parameters, navigation accuracies of 5 to 15 km (1 sigma) can be achieved, equivalent to 15 to 40 nrad in geocentric angle uncertainty.

Estefan, Jeffrey A.↗

Meeting human needs

Manned space flight can be viewed as an interaction of three general elements: the human crewmember, spacecraft systems, and the environment. While the human crewmember is a crucial element in the system, certain physiological, psychological, environ- mental and spacecraft systems factors can compromise human performance in space. These factors include atmospheric pressure, physiology, uncertainties associated with space radiation, the potential for exposure to toxic materials in the closed environment, and spacecraft habitability. Health protection in space, for current and future missions, relies on a philosophy of risk reduction, which in the space program is achieved in four ways-through health maintenance, health care, design criteria, an selection and training. Emphasis is place upon prevention, through selection criteria and careful screening. Spacecraft health care systems must be absolutely reliable, and they will be automated and computerized to the maximum extent possible, but still designed with the human crewmember's capabilities in mind. The autonomy and technological sophistication of future missions will require a greater emphasis on high-level interaction between the human operator and automated systems, with effective allocation of tasks between humans and machines. Performance in space will include complex tasks during extravehicular activity (EVA) and on planetary surfaces, and knowledge of crewmembers' capability and limitations during such operations will be critical to mission success. Psychological support will become increasingly important on space missions, as crews spend long periods in remote and potentially hazardous environments. The success of future missions will depend on both individual psychological health and group cohesion and productivity, particularly as crew profiles become more heterogeneous. Thus, further human factors are needed in the area of small-group dynamics and performance.

Nicogossian, Arnauld E.↗

How Well Satellite Remote Sensing Can Inform Surface Level Ozone Production Sensitivity to Precursor Trace Gas Emissions?

Surface-level ozone (O3) pollution mitigation strategies rely on a clear understanding of the atmospheric chemical processes involving O3, NOx (nitric oxide (NO) + nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). A robust spatiotemporal classification of O3 photochemical regimes with relative chemical sensitivity of local O3 formation to emission reductions of NOx (NOx-limited regime) versus VOCs (radical-limited regime) is required to design anthropogenic emission reduction policies in order to improve surface air quality. Numerous studies found that the ratio of satellite-retrieved Vertical Column Densities (VCDs) of formaldehyde (HCHO) to NO2 can diagnose O3 production sensitivity. However, uncertainty still remains about the accuracy of such estimates using satellite-based retrievals. This study conducts an investigation to identify how well satellite data can inform surface-level O3 sensitivity by validating satellite-based estimates against aircraft-based retrievals taken during the Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS-2018) and Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS-2) field campaigns. For this study, we use HCHO and NO2 retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard the Aura satellite, and high spatiotemporal resolution TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system is used to provide trace gas vertical profiles to recalculate air mass factor for deriving consistent satellite-based VCDs. To demonstrate the ability of satellites to diagnose O3 production regimes, we validate satellite-derived O3 sensitivity regimes, along with the OMI and TROPOMI products applied, using HCHO and NO2 retrievals from the aircraft-based instruments: Geostationary Trace gas and Aerosol Sensor Optimization (GeoTASO) spectrometer and Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events Airborne Simulator (GCAS) instruments deployed during the LISTOS-2018 and OWLETS-2 campaigns. The results of this work will advance our fundamental knowledge of the spatiotemporal evolution of the complex O3-NOx-VOC chemistry, and will advance our understanding about the quality of remote-sensing, suborbital, and satellite data for accurately observing surface-level O3 production sensitivity.

Satellite↗

Inter-Calibration of Nine UV Sensing Instruments Over Antarctica and Greenland Since 1980

Nadir-viewed intensities (radiances) from nine UV sensing satellite instruments are calibrated over the East Antarctic Plateau and Greenland during summer. The calibrated radiances from these UV instruments ultimately will provide a global long-term record of cloud trends and cloud response from ENSO events since 1980. We first remove the strong solar zenith angle dependence from the intensities using an empirical approach rather than a radiative trans-fer model. Then small multiplicative adjustments are made to these solar zenith angle normalized intensities in order to minimize differences when two or more instruments tempo-rally overlap. While the calibrated intensities show a negligible long-term trend over Antarctica and a statistically in-significant UV albedo trend of−0.05 % per decade over the interior of Greenland, there are small episodic reductions in intensities which are often seen by multiple instruments. Three of these darkening events are explained by boreal forest. Other events are caused by surface melting or volcanoes. We estimate a 2-sigma uncertainty of 0.35% for the calibrated radiances

Nadir-viewed intensities (radiances) from nine UV ↗

Global Air Quality and Climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

ozone↗

Peak Reduction in a Residential Community Through Bayesian Optimization of Transactive Control Signals

Daily residential power consumption in aggregate tends to have a large peak that places stress on the distribution system and induces high operational costs. This work shows that coordinated transactive control of noncritical loads within a residential community or microgrid can help to alleviate peak-time stress on the distribution system by flattening the aggregate load curve. Treating the load forecaster as a high-fidelity, expensive black-box function, a new algorithm utilizing Bayesian optimization (BO) is proposed to achieve the best solution under uncertainty with minimal computing effort. The proposed BO algorithm manipulates the shape of the load based on transactive signals sent to each home. The thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) act out of self-interest in response to the given price while maintaining comfort, and the optimizer exploits the thermal energy retention of the homes for the benefit of the community. Simulations confirm consistent neighborhood-level peak power reduction and energy cost savings.

Schomer, Ian↗

Local and Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Reactive Transport Model Simulating Floodplain Redox Cycling

Reactive transport models (RTMs) are essential tools that simulate the coupling of advective, diffusive, and reactive processes in the subsurface, but their complexity makes them difficult to understand, develop and improve without accompanying statistical analyses. Although global sensitivity analysis (SA) can address these issues, the computational cost associated with most global SA techniques limits their use with RTMs. In this study, we apply distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA), a novel and computationally efficient method of global SA, to a floodplain-scale RTM and compare DGSA results to those from local SA. Our test case focuses on the impact of 17 uncertain environmental parameters on spatially and temporally variable redox conditions within a floodplain aquifer. The input parameters considered include flow and diffusion rates, geochemical reaction rates, and the spatial distribution of sediment facies. Sensitivity was evaluated for three distinct components of the model response, encompassing both multidimensional and categorical output. Parameter rankings differ between local SA and DGSA, due to nonlinear effects of individual parameters and interaction effects between parameters. DGSA results show that fluid residence time, which is controlled by aquifer permeability, generally exerts a stronger control on redox conditions than do geochemical reaction rates. Sensitivity indices also demonstrate that sulfate reduction is key for establishing and maintaining reducing conditions throughout the aquifer. Furthermore, these results provide insights into the key drivers of heterogeneous redox processes within floodplain aquifers, as well as the main sources of uncertainty when modeling complex subsurface systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cyclone Fani: the tug-of-war between regional warming and anthropogenic aerosol effects

Before Cyclone Amphan took place in 2020, Cyclone Fani (May 2019) is the strongest pre-monsoon cyclone in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) since 1991, killing 90 people in eastern India and Bangladesh while causing US$1.81 billion of damages. Fani developed during a period of high concentration of anthropogenic aerosols in the BOB with abnormally high sea surface temperature (SST), thereby presenting an opportunity to understand the compound effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional climate warming on a tropical cyclone. A quantitative attribution analysis was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) run at the convection-permitting (4 km) grid spacing, accompanied by an ensemble of coarser-resolution simulations to quantify the uncertainty. The removal of post-1990 trends in the tropospheric variables and SST from WRF-Chem's initial conditions (IC) and boundary conditions (BC, including the lateral and lower boundary conditions) resulted in a reduction of cyclone precipitation by about 51% during the 5 d of April 28-May 2. The removal of tropospheric warming shows approximately twice as strong an effect on Fani (39% reduction in precipitation) as that of SST warming (22% reduction). When aerosol's direct and indirect effects were removed from the simulations, i.e., no aerosol influence on radiation and cloud microphysics, Fani initially strengthened but later weakened, as measured by geopotential height and precipitation amounts. These results suggest that aerosol and its interaction with the atmosphere acted to mitigate the strengthening effect of anthropogenic warming on Fani, but was not strong enough to entirely counteract it. Although the ensemble of coarser simulations appears to overestimate Cyclone Fani in terms of precipitation, the direction of the effects is in agreement with that obtained from the 4 km simulations. Given the increasing anthropogenic aerosols in the BOB, future attribution studies using more sophisticated dynamical aerosol models on BOB tropical cyclones are urged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analytic investigation of advancing blade drag reduction by tip modifications

Analytic techniques were applied to study the effect on the performance of the nonlifting advancing blade when the outboard 5% of the blade is modified to reduce drag. The tip modifications studied consisted of reducing airfoil thickness, sweepback, and planform taper. The reductions in instantaneous drag and torque were calculated for tip speed ratios from about 0.19 to 0.30, corresponding to advancing blade tip Mach numbers of 0.855 to 0.936, respectively. Approximations required in the analysis introduce uncertainties into the computed absolute values of drag and torque; however, the differences in the quantities should be a fairly reliable measure of the effect of changing tip geometry. For example, at the highest tip speed, instantaneous drag, and torque were reduced by 20% and 24%, respectively, for tip sweep of 40 deg on a blade using an NACA 0010 airfoil and by comparable amounts for 30-deg sweep on a blade having an NACA 0012 airfoil section. The present method should prove to be a useful, inexpensive technique for identifying promising configurations for additional study and testing.

Tauber, M. E.↗

Shielding against galactic cosmic rays

Ions of galactic origin are modified but not attenuated by the presence of shielding materials. Indeed, the number of particles and the absorbed energy behind most shield materials increases as a function of shield thickness. The modification of the galactic cosmic ray composition upon interaction with shielding is the only effective means of providing astronaut protection. This modification is intimately conntected with the shield transport porperties and is a strong function of shield composition. The systematic behavior of the shield properites in terms of microscopic energy absorption events will be discussed. The shield effectiveness is examined with respect to convectional protection practice and in terms of a biological endpoint: the efficiency for reduction of the probability of transformation of shielded C3H1OT1/2 mouse cells. The relative advantage of developing new shielding technologies is discussed in terms of a shield performance as related to biological effect and the resulting uncertainty in estimating astronaut risk.

Schimmerling, W.↗

Moving Beyond Apollo: Vacuum Ground Testing to Reduce Plume-Surface Interaction Risks to Lunar Landers

NASA’s Artemis Program will return humans to the surface of the Moon for the first time since Apollo using the Human Landing System (HLS). Plume-surface interactions (PSI) pose a potential hazard to all propulsive landing vehicles and future nearby assets that will be part of a sustained lunar architecture. Risks due to uncertainty in PSI predictions have challenged lunar landers since the 1960s, and understanding these phenomena further remains critical to enabling NASA’s lunar exploration goals. To this end, the HLS Program has funded a risk reduction ground test to obtain data relevant for application to environments produced by large landing systems. New data are needed to understand PSI and effects with the potential to differ from those experienced by the Apollo landers. This presentation will discuss the test concept, facility, research goals, methods, and planned data products.

Moon↗

The Dark Energy Camera Plane Survey 2 (DECaPS2): More Sky, Less Bias, and Better Uncertainties

Abstract Deep optical and near-infrared imaging of the entire Galactic plane is essential for understanding our Galaxy’s stars, gas, and dust. The second data release of the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) Plane Survey extends the five-band optical and near-infrared survey of the southern Galactic plane to cover 6.5% of the sky, ∣ b ∣ ≤ 10°, and 6° > ℓ > −124°, complementary to coverage by Pan-STARRS1. Typical single-exposure effective depths, including crowding effects and other complications, are 23.5, 22.6, 22.1, 21.6, and 20.8 mag in g , r , i , z , and Y bands, respectively, with around 1″ seeing. The survey comprises 3.32 billion objects built from 34 billion detections in 21,400 exposures, totaling 260 hr open shutter time on the DECam at Cerro Tololo. The data reduction pipeline features several improvements, including the addition of synthetic source injection tests to validate photometric solutions across the entire survey footprint. A convenient functional form for the detection bias in the faint limit was derived and leveraged to characterize the photometric pipeline performance. A new postprocessing technique was applied to every detection to debias and improve uncertainty estimates of the flux in the presence of structured backgrounds, specifically targeting nebulosity. The images and source catalogs are publicly available at http://decaps.skymaps.info/ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

History Matching and Performance Prediction of a Polymer Flood Pilot in Heavy Oil Reservoir on Alaska North Slope

The first-ever polymer flood pilot to enhance heavy oil recovery on Alaska North Slope (ANS) is ongoing. After more than 2.5 years of polymer injection, significant benefit has been observed from the decrease in water cut from 65% to less than 15% in the project producers. The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust history-matched reservoir simulation model capable of predicting future polymer flood performance. In this work, the reservoir simulation model has been developed based on the geological model and available reservoir and fluid data. In particular, four high transmissibility strips were introduced to connect the injector-producer well pairs, simulating short-circuiting flow behavior that can be explained by viscous fingering and reproducing the water cut history. The strip transmissibilities were manually tuned to improve the history matching results during the waterflooding and polymer flooding periods, respectively. It has been found that higher strip transmissibilities match the sharp water cut increase very well in the waterflooding period. Then the strip transmissibilities need to be reduced with time to match the significant water cut reduction. The viscous fingering effect in the reservoir during waterflooding and the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding have been effectively represented. Based on the validated simulation model, numerical simulation tests have been conducted to investigate the oil recovery performance under different development strategies, with consideration for sensitivity to polymer parameter uncertainties. The oil recovery factor with polymer flooding can reach about 39% in 30 years, twice as much as forecasted with continued waterflooding. Besides, the updated reservoir model has been successfully employed to forecast polymer utilization, a valuable parameter to evaluate the pilot test’s economic efficiency. All the investigated development strategies indicate polymer utilization lower than 3.5 lbs/bbl in 30 years, which is economically attractive.

Wang, Xindan↗

Are Terrestrial Biosphere Models Fit for Simulating the Global Land Carbon Sink?

The Global Carbon Project estimates that the terrestrial biosphere has absorbed about one-third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions during the 1959–2019 period. This sink-estimate is produced by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models and is consistent with the land uptake inferred from the residual of emissions and ocean uptake. The purpose of our study is to understand how well terrestrial biosphere models reproduce the processes that drive the terrestrial carbon sink. One challenge is to decide what level of agreement between model output and observation-based reference data is adequate considering that reference data are prone to uncertainties. To define such a level of agreement, we compute benchmark scores that quantify the similarity between independently derived reference data sets using multiple statistical metrics. Models are considered to perform well if their model scores reach benchmark scores. Our results show that reference data can differ considerably, causing benchmark scores to be low. Model scores are often of similar magnitude as benchmark scores, implying that model performance is reasonable given how different reference data are. While model performance is encouraging, ample potential for improvements remains, including a reduction in a positive leaf area index bias, improved representations of processes that govern soil organic carbon in high latitudes, and an assessment of causes that drive the inter-model spread of gross primary productivity in boreal regions and humid tropics. The success of future model development will increasingly depend on our capacity to reduce and account for observational uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modern Monte Carlo methods for efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation: A survey

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a sampling-based approach that has widely used for quantification and propagation of uncertainties. However, the standard MC method is often time-consuming if the simulation-based model is computationally intensive. This article gives an overview of modern MC methods to address the existing challenges of the standard MC in the context of UQ. Specifically, multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) extending the concept of control variates achieves a significant reduction of the computational cost by performing most evaluations with low accuracy and corresponding low cost, and relatively few evaluations at high accuracy and corresponding high cost. Multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) accelerates the convergence of standard Monte Carlo by generalizing the control variates with different models having varying fidelities and varying computational costs. Multimodel Monte Carlo method (MMMC), having a different setting of MLMC and MFMC, aims to address the issue of UQ and propagation when data for characterizing probability distributions are limited. Multimodel inference combined with importance sampling is proposed for quantifying and efficiently propagating the uncertainties resulting from small data sets. All of these three modern MC methods achieve a significant improvement of computational efficiency for probabilistic UQ, particularly uncertainty propagation. Finally, an algorithm summary and the corresponding code implementation are provided for each of the modern MC methods. The extension and application of these methods are discussed in detail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Inferring the scrape-off layer heat flux width in a divertor with a low degree of axisymmetry

Plasma facing components (PFCs) in the next generation of tokamak devices will operate in challenging environments, with heat loads predicted to exceed 10 MWm -2 . The magnitude of these heat loads is set by the width of the channel, the ‘scrape-off layer’ (SOL), into which heat is exhausted, and can be characterised by an e-folding length scale for the decay of heat flux across the channel. It is expected this channel will narrow as tokamaks move towards reactor relevant conditions. Understanding the processes involved in setting the SOL heat flux width is imperative to be able to predict the heat loads PFCs must handle in future devices. Measurements of the SOL width are performed on the high-field spherical tokamak, ST40, using a newly commissioned infrared thermography system. With its high on-axis toroidal magnetic field (≥1.5 T) ST40 is uniquely positioned to investigate the influence of toroidal field on the heat flux width in spherical tokamaks, whilst also extending measurements of the SOL width in spherical tokamaks to increased poloidal field (≥0.3 T). Due to the divertor on ST40 having a low degree of axisymmetry, it is necessary for a set of radial measurements of the heat flux to be taken across the divertor, made possible using an automated toolchain that fully incorporates its 3D geometry. These radial profiles are combined with the magnetic geometry of the plasma to infer the width of the SOL, with both Eich and double exponential profiles of heat flux observed. A reduction in the heat flux is observed toroidally across part of the divertor, along with increased heat loads observed locally around the edges of the tiles. Future work in characterising the impact of tile misalignment and uncertainties in the reconstructed divertor magnetic geometry is required in order to further understand the observed heat flux patterns, as are additional investigations into the role potentially being played by an inhomogeneous sheath electric field.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Forest responses to simulated elevated CO 2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO 2 ) is predicted to increase growth rates of forest trees. The extent to which increased growth translates to changes in biomass is dependent on the turnover time of the carbon, and thus tree mortality rates. Size- or age-dependent mortality combined with increased growth rates could result in either decreased carbon turnover from a speeding up of tree life cycles, or increased biomass from trees reaching larger sizes, respectively. However, most vegetation models currently lack any representation of size- or age-dependent mortality and the effect of eCO 2 on changes in biomass and carbon turnover times is thus a major source of uncertainty in predictions of future vegetation dynamics. Using a reduced-complexity form of the vegetation demographic model the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator to simulate an idealised tropical forest, we find increases in biomass despite reductions in carbon turnover time in both size- and age-dependent mortality scenarios in response to a hypothetical eCO 2 -driven 25% increase in woody net primary productivity (wNPP). Carbon turnover times decreased by 9.6% in size-dependent mortality scenarios due to a speeding up of tree life cycles, but also by 2.0% when mortality was age-dependent, as larger crowns led to increased light competition. Increases in aboveground biomass (AGB) were much larger when mortality was age-dependent (24.3%) compared with size-dependent (13.4%) as trees reached larger sizes before death. In simulations with a constant background mortality rate, carbon turnover time decreased by 2.1% and AGB increased by 24.0%, however, absolute values of AGB and carbon turnover were higher than in either size- or age-dependent mortality scenario. The extent to which AGB increases and carbon turnover decreases will thus depend on the mechanisms of large tree mortality: if increased size itself results in elevated mortality rates, then this could reduce by about half the increase in AGB relative to the increase in wNPP.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR) LEU Fuel Fluid-Structure Interaction Analysis

The University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR ® ) is one of five U.S. high performance research reactors (USHPRR), plus one critical facility, that are actively collaborating with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Material Management and Minimization (M 3 ) Reactor Conversion Program to convert from highly enriched uranium (HEU, ≥ 20 wt.% U-235) to low-enriched uranium (LEU, < 20 wt.% U-235) fuel. A new type of LEU fuel with very high density, based on an alloy of uranium and 10 weight percent molybdenum (U-10Mo), is expected to allow the conversion to LEU of USHPRR that have been found unable to be converted with previously qualified uranium silicide-aluminum (U 3 Si 2 -Al) dispersion fuel. MURR has been working with the USHPRR Reactor Conversion (RC) Pillar at Argonne National Laboratory to perform fuel element design and fuel cycle performance analyses, steady-state thermal hydraulics safety analyses, and accident safety analyses in preparation for the conversion of MURR and to support a preliminary Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for conversion to LEU fuel. In this work, Fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analysis at the fuel element level, as compared to the fuel plate level of the previous work. is performed which models all components of the MURR LEU fuel element, including fuel plates and the supporting structures e.g., side plates, end fittings, and combs. Therefore, the effect of supporting structures on the coolant flow distribution, the fuel plate deflection, and the resulting coolant channel gap reduction can be evaluated. In addition to the nominal element geometry and flow rate, the tolerances in the geometry dimensions of coolant channel and plate thickness, the effect of a comb on plate deflection, and the uncertainty of the flow rate per element are considered in this work. The effect of comb on plate displacement is quantified through two bounding cases: the case assuming a perfect bond between the comb and plates and the case neglecting the comb effect. Note that in this analysis, the FSI has been decoupled from the other structural effects caused by irradiation (e.g., swelling and irradiation creep). Assessment of combined effects is planned for a later stage of this project.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗