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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2019

Two-stage ignition behavior and octane sensitivity of toluene reference fuels as gasoline surrogate

Current approaches to improve the efficiency of Spark-Ignition (SI) gasoline engines have been focusing on turbocharging, increasing the compression ratio, and pursuing advanced low-temperature combustion concepts. In order to maximize these strategies, it is important to optimize the knock resistance of the fuel, and therefore knowledge of the sensitivity of the ignition process under a wide range of engine operating conditions is required. Octane sensitivity (OS), which is defined as the difference between Research Octane Number (RON) and Motored Octane Number (MON), has been introduced to represent how fuel's ignition reactivity changes relative to the primary reference fuels (n-heptane/iso-octane) within RON/MON conditions. Previous works have indicated that OS is intimately related to low temperature reactivity of the fuel, which can be revealed as two-stage heat release characteristics during an ignition event. Prompted by these findings, in this paper, we investigate the relationship between two-stage ignition behavior and OS, using chemical kinetic simulations of 24 Toluene Reference Fuels (TRFs)/ethanol blends. TRFs are ternary mixtures of n-heptane/iso-octane/toluene, which is capable of capturing aromatic content and positive values of OS of real gasoline fuels. Simulation results show that fuels with weak or no two-stage ignition behavior tend to have high OS, due to their lack of Negative Temperature Coefficient (NTC) effect and high sensitivity in ignition delay time. Leveraging such observations, we develop a correlation between two-stage behavior and OS as an OS prediction method. Two metrics that represent the strength of the two-stage ignition behavior are proposed and used as OS predictors, which are Low Temperature Heat Release percentage (LTHR%) and Heat Release Rate at the end of first stage (HRR inf ) calculated from a simple kinetic simulation. Regression analysis shows a clear trend between decreases in the proposed two-stage behavior metrics and increases in the value of OS of the fuel. We also test the new metric (LTHR%) using simulation results of 0-D reactors with imposed pressure time histories obtained from engine experiments, as well as using different TRF kinetic mechanisms. Here, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the metric as a representation of the two-stage ignition behavior in practical combustion systems, highlighting the importance of the proposed relationship, and its potential as a simple and effective OS predictor.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2015

Investigations on the electronic, structural, magnetic properties related to shape-memory behavior in Ti{sub 2}CoX (X=Al, Ga, In)

Highlights: • The analysis of phase stability trend is studied for Ti{sub 2}CoX(X = Al, Ga, In). • Ti{sub 2}CoGa is more suitable as shape memory alloy. • Total magnetic moments disappear with a increase of c/a ratio for all systems. • Density of states at the Fermi level are also shown. - Abstract: Using the full-potential local orbital minimum-basis method, we have performed a systematic investigations on the electronic, structural, and magnetic properties related to shape memory applications for Ti{sub 2}CoX (X=Al, Ga, In) alloys. Our results confirm that these alloys are half-metallic ferromagnets with total magnetic moment of 2μ{sub B} per formula unit in austenite phase, and undergo a martensitic transformation at low temperatures. The relative stabilities of the martensitic phases differ considerably between Ti{sub 2}CoX (X=Al, Ga, In). Details of the electronic structures suggest that the differences in hybridizations between the magnetic components are responsible for trends of phase. Quantitative estimates for the energetics and the magnetizations indicate that Ti{sub 2}CoGa is a promising candidate for shape memory applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Assessing the relative importance of flame regimes in Raman/Rayleigh line measurements of turbulent lifted flames

Understanding and quantifying the relative importance of premixed and non-premixed reaction zones within turbulent partially premixed flames is an important issue for multi-regime combustion. The recently-developed method of gradient-free regime identification (GFRI) is applied to instantaneous 1D Raman/Rayleigh measurements of temperature and major species from two turbulent lifted methane/air flames. Local premixed and non-premixed reaction zones are identified using criteria based on the mixture fraction, the chemical explosive mode, and the heat release rate, the latter two being calculated from an approximation of the full thermochemical state of each measured sample. A chemical mode (CM) zero-crossing is a previously documented marker for a premixed reaction zone. Results from the lifted flames show strong correlations among the mixture fraction at the CM zero-crossing, the magnitude of the change in CM at the zero-crossing, and the local heat release rate at the CM zero-crossing compared to the maximum heat release rate. The trends are confirmed through a comparable analysis of numerical simulations of two laminar triple flames. These newly documented trends are associated with the transition from dominantly premixed flame structures to dominantly non-premixed flames structures. The methods introduced for assessing the relative importance of local premixed and non-premixed reactions zones have potential for application to a broad range of turbulent flames.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous Nanoparticle Synthesis Guided by In Situ Multiscale Structural Characterization

Autonomous synthesis platforms promise rapid exploration of vast parameter spaces; yet, integrating in situ structural characterization in closed-loop synthesis optimization remains challenging. We demonstrate a realization of such a closed-loop platform coupled with a droplet-flow microreactor, in situ X-ray scattering methods (SAXS/WAXS), and Gaussian process optimization to synthesize citrate-reduced Au nanoparticles with targeted characteristics. The system efficiently explored ∼19,000 synthesis recipes through 365 experiments, achieving precise control over size (4–60 nm) and polydispersity (σ < 0.11) across large citrate/gold ratios, exceeding traditional synthesis boundaries (1–10). Beyond confirming classical Turkevich–Frens trends, partial-dependence analysis revealed strong nonlinear coupling among precursor, citrate, and pH effects. Combining quantitative SAXS/WAXS analysis with electron microscopy characterization, we uncovered that crystallite size (d c ) and particle size (d) follow d c = 0.18d + β, where synthesis chemistry controls the intercept β while maintaining a universal slope. This parallel-band structure enables independent tuning of crystallite domain size at fixed particle diameter through a combination of chloride, gold precursor, citrate, and pH contributions (cross-validated Spearman ρ = 0.7 ± 0.1). High-resolution electron microscopy shows multiple lattice-fringe orientations within single particles, directly confirming polycrystalline domains and the ability to tune d c at the fixed d. The platform’s validation includes indistinguishable static versus flowing measurements, stable droplet transport at 100 °C, and <5% run-to-run variation, establishing a robust framework for mapping and controlling multiscale nanoparticle structure across expansive chemical spaces. In conclusion, the developed closed-loop platform can be applied to a borad range of nanosyntheis processes.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Oxo to Oxyl to Biradical: Systematic Multireference Calculations of Methane Activation at MOF Nodes

Methane C–H activation at transition-metal sites often involves electronic structures that challenge conventional single-reference electronic structure descriptions. Although Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) is widely used to study catalytic trends, its reliability for reactions involving strongly correlated species remains uncertain. Here we present a systematic multireference investigation of methane activation at metal–organic framework (MOF) node catalysts across the 3d transition-metal series. We introduce an automated workflow for active space selection to enable consistent application of multireference methods, including multiconfiguration pair-density functional theory and n-electron valence state perturbation theory, to these catalytic systems. These calculations show substantial static correlation in the C–H activation reaction step and predict activation barriers that differ from DFT by 30–70 kJ mol–1, with DFT often qualitatively disagreeing in barrier height trends across transition metals. Analysis of multireference wave functions shows that reactivity is governed by the electronic structure of the M–O moiety along a continuum from metal–oxo to oxyl radical and O biradical character. Increased oxygen-centered spin density and weakened M–O bonding are identified as descriptors of catalytic activity which correlate with lower activation barriers.

Wardzala, Jacob↗

DOE OSTI2018

Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification

Rapid Intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute to severe destruction and loss of life. While past studies examined the frequency of RI occurrence, changes in RI magnitude were not considered. Here we explore changes in RI magnitude over the 30-year satellite period of 1986-2015. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, which includes much of the main development region, the 95th percentile of 24-hr intensity changes increased at 3.8 knots per decade. In the western tropical Atlantic, encompassing the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, trends are insignificant. Our analysis reveals that warming of the upper-ocean coinciding with the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and associated changes in the large-scale environment, have predominantly favored RI magnitude increases in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. These results have substantial implications for the eastern Caribbean Islands, some of which were devastated during the 2017 hurricane season.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Power Law Growth and Delayed Feedbacks in Socio-Hydrological Systems

Water infrastructure dynamics result from coupled social and physical hydrological processes embedded in “socio-hydrological systems” (SHSs). Freshwater fuels socioeconomic activity, which in turn exerts pressure on water resources through increased water demand and water quality degradation. Many factors emphasize the need for quantitative tools to predict the future of these systems, including SHS failures due to growing water scarcity from population growth and climate change. However, unfolding the interactions between social and hydrological factors continues to resist theoretical treatment, impeding progress toward a predictive framework. To resolve this issue, we propose and evaluate time delays as surrogates for the social dynamics in SHS models. This approach permits the development of models that describe SHS dynamics in terms of observable, physical, hydrological state variables. We apply this approach to two case studies: (a) reservoir storage capacity growth in the world and the U.S. Water Resources Regions and (b) global water withdrawals. Substantial variability was identified in empirical estimates of growth rates and time delays. Reservoir construction typically follows a saturating, logistic curve with periodic, punctuated equilibria, separated by delays ranging from 5 to 20 years both globally and regionally. In contrast, global water withdrawal data display faster-than-exponential growth, characteristic of a positive feedback through which water use drives further water development. Historical analysis suggests that growth trends in water resources systems are superimposed by recurring periods of innovation and inactivity which are indicative of slow memory dissipation and delayed effects of past water use on current water infrastructure decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Energy transfer kinetics in oxy-fluoride glass and glass-ceramics doped with rare-earth ions

An investigation of donor-acceptor energy transfer kinetics in dual rare earths doped precursor oxy-fluoride glass and its glass-ceramics containing NaYF{sub 4} nano-crystals is reported here, using three different donor-acceptor ion combinations such as Nd-Yb, Yb-Dy, and Nd-Dy. The precipitation of NaYF{sub 4} nano-crystals in host glass matrix under controlled post heat treatment of precursor oxy-fluoride glasses has been confirmed from XRD, FESEM, and transmission electron microscope (TEM) analysis. Further, the incorporation of dopant ions inside fluoride nano-crystals has been established through optical absorption and TEM-EDX analysis. The noticed decreasing trend in donor to acceptor energy transfer efficiency from precursor glass to glass-ceramics in all three combinations have been explained based on the structural rearrangements that occurred during the heat treatment process. The reduced coupling phonon energy for the dopant ions due to fluoride environment and its influence on the overall phonon assisted contribution in energy transfer process has been illustrated. Additionally, realization of a correlated distribution of dopant ions causing clustering inside nano-crystals has also been reported.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2015

A micromechanics model for bread dough

The mechanical behaviour of dough and gluten was studied in an effort to investigate whether bread dough can be treated as a two phase (starch and gluten) composite material. The dough and gluten show rate dependent behaviour under tension, compression and shear tests, and non-linear unloading-reloading curves under cyclic compression tests. There is evidence from cryo-Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) that damage in the form of debonding between starch and gluten occurs when the sample is stretched. A composite finite element model was developed using starch as filler and gluten as matrix. The interaction between the starch and gluten was modelled as cohesive contact. The finite element analysis predictions agree with trends seen in experimental test data on dough and gluten, further evidence that debonding of starch and gluten is a possible damage mechanism in dough.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Changes in above- versus belowground biomass distribution in permafrost regions in response to climate warming

Permafrost regions contain approximately half of the carbon stored in land ecosystems and have warmed at least twice as much as any other biome. This warming has influenced vegetation activity, leading to changes in plant composition, physiology, and biomass storage in aboveground and belowground components, ultimately impacting ecosystem carbon balance. Yet, little is known about the causes and magnitude of long-term changes in the above- to belowground biomass ratio of plants (η). Here, in this study, we analyzed η values using 3,013 plots and 26,337 species-specific measurements across eight sites on the Tibetan Plateau from 1995 to 2021. Our analysis revealed distinct temporal trends in η for three vegetation types: a 17% increase in alpine wetlands, and a decrease of 26% and 48% in alpine meadows and alpine steppes, respectively. These trends were primarily driven by temperature-induced growth preferences rather than shifts in plant species composition. Our findings indicate that in wetter ecosystems, climate warming promotes aboveground plant growth, while in drier ecosystems, such as alpine meadows and alpine steppes, plants allocate more biomass belowground. Furthermore, we observed a threefold strengthening of the warming effect on η over the past 27 y. Soil moisture was found to modulate the sensitivity of η to soil temperature in alpine meadows and alpine steppes, but not in alpine wetlands. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the processes driving the response of biomass distribution to climate warming, which is crucial for predicting the future carbon trajectory of permafrost ecosystems and climate feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

7 Li( d , p ) 8 Li transfer reaction in the NCSM/RGM approach

Recently, we applied an ab initio method, the no-core shell model combined with the resonating group method, to the transfer reactions with light p-shell nuclei as targets and deuteron as the projectile. In particular, we studied the elastic scattering of deuterium on 7Li and the 7Li(d,p)8Li transfer reaction starting from a realistic two-nucleon interaction. In this contribution, we review of our main results on the 7Li(d,p)8Li transfer reaction, and we extend the study of the relevant reaction channels, by showing the dominant resonant phase shifts of the scattering matrix. We assess also the impact of the polarization effects of the deuteron below the breakup on the positive-parity resonant states in the reaction. For this purpose, we perform an analysis of the convergence trend of the phase and eigenphase shifts, with respect to the number of deuteron pseudostates included in the model space

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events, posing challenges to food security. Corn, a staple crop for billions, is particularly vulnerable to heat stress, a primary driver of yield variability. While many studies have examined climate impact on average corn yields, little attention has been given to the climate impact on production volatility. This study investigates the future volatility and risks associated with global corn supply under climate change, evaluating the potential benefits of two key adaptation strategies: irrigation and market integration. A statistical model is employed to estimate corn yield response to heat stress and utilize NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate data to project future production volatility and risks of substantial yield losses. Three metrics are introduced to quantify these risks: Sigma (σ), the standard deviation of year-on-year yield change, which reflects overall yield volatility; Rho (ρ), the risk of substantial loss, defined as the probability of yield falling below a critical threshold; and Beta (β), a relative risk coefficient that captures the volatility of a region's corn production compared to the globally integrated market. The analysis reveals a concerning trend of increasing year-on-year yield volatility (σ) across most regions and climate models. This volatility increase is significant for key corn-producing regions like Brazil and the United States. While irrigated corn production exhibits a smaller rise in volatility, suggesting irrigation as a potential buffer against climate change impacts, it is not a sustainable option as it can cause groundwater depletion. On the other hand, global market integration reduces overall volatility and market risks significantly with less sustainability concerns. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach to adaptation in the food sector. While irrigation can benefit individual farmers, promoting global market integration offers a broader solution for fostering resilience and sustainability across the entire food system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Trends in spatial correlations, two-phase coexistence, and criticality in a class of type-2 Schloegl models for autocatalysis

A class of type-2 Schloegl models is considered for particles on a square lattice with variable-range cooperativity. These models involve: (i) spontaneous particle annihilation at rate p; (ii) autocatalytic particle creation at unoccupied sites (i, j) with n ⩾ 2 particles within a specified neighborhood, Ω 𝑁 (i, j), of sites at rate $k_n$ = $\frac{^{(^n_2)}}{_{(^N_2)}}$ = $\frac{n{(n-1)}}{_{N(N-1)}}$; and (iii) possible spontaneous particle creation at unoccupied sites at “small” rate ɛ ⩾ 0. In some cases, Ω 𝑁 just includes all symmetry-equivalent sites at a single specific distance 𝑑 (in units of lattice constants) from the unoccupied site, e.g., 𝑑 = 1 (nearest-neighbor sites) where 𝑁 = 4, or 𝑑 = √5 (or √13 or…) where 𝑁 = 8. In other cases, Ω 𝑁 includes sites multiple distances from the unoccupied site, e.g., 𝑑 = {1,√2}, where 𝑁 = 8. Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulation reveals that these models exhibit a nonequilibrium discontinuous phase transition between high- and low-density states below a critical point, ɛ < ɛ c , with generic two-phase coexistence (2PC) at least for smaller 𝑁. With some exceptions, there is an approach toward mean-field behavior with increasing 𝑁 (so the regime of generic 2PC shrinks, and ɛ c approaches the mean-field value of 1/27). Additional insight into trends is provided by analysis of the exact master equations for the models via hierarchical truncation. These truncations utilize suitably tailored pair approximations which reflect the dominant nonequilibrium spatial correlations. These correlations in turn are shown to reflect the details of the autocatalytic particle creation process. For spatially heterogeneous states, the truncations produce coupled sets of lattice differential equations (LDE) which can describe orientation-dependent propagation of an interface between high- and low-density steady states for ɛ < ɛ c . Pair approximation values of 𝑝 = 𝑝 eq where the interface is stationary, and its orientation-dependence, are in semiquantitative agreement with KMC results. In conclusion, this comparison accounts for propagation failure in the LDE which complicates interpretation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Survey of Deep Learning and Physics-Based Approaches in Computational Wave Imaging

Computational wave imaging (CWI) extracts hidden structure and physical properties of a volume of material by analyzing wave signals that traverse that volume. Applications include seismic exploration of the Earth’s subsurface, acoustic imaging and nondestructive testing (NDT) in material science, and ultrasound computed tomography (USCT) in medicine. Current approaches for solving CWI problems can be divided into two categories: those rooted in traditional physics and those based on deep learning. Physics-based methods stand out for their ability to provide high-resolution and quantitatively accurate estimates of acoustic properties within the medium. However, they can be computationally intensive and are susceptible to ill-posedness and nonconvexity typical of CWI problems. Machine learning (ML)-based computational methods have recently emerged, offering a different perspective to address these challenges. Diverse scientific communities have independently pursued the integration of deep learning in CWI. This review discusses how contemporary scientific ML techniques, and deep neural networks in particular, have been developed to enhance and integrate with traditional physics-based methods for solving CWI problems. We present a structured framework that consolidates existing research spanning multiple domains, including computational imaging, wave physics, and data science. This study concludes with important lessons learned from existing ML-based methods and identifies technical hurdles and emerging trends through a systematic analysis of the extensive literature on this topic.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluating the Performance of the IEEE Standard 1366 Method for Identifying Major Event Days

IEEE Standard 1366 offers a method for segmenting reliability performance data to isolate the effects of major events from the underlying year-to-year trends in reliability. Recent analysis by the IEEE Distribution Reliability Working Group (DRWG) has found that reliability performance of some utilities differs from the expectations that helped guide the development of the Standard 1366 method. This paper proposes quantitative metrics to evaluate the performance of the Standard 1366 method in identifying major events and in reducing year-to-year variability in utility reliability. The metrics are applied to a large sample of utility-reported reliability data to assess performance of the method with alternative specifications that have been considered by the DRWG. We find that none of the alternatives perform uniformly 'better' than the current Standard 1366 method. That is, none of the modifications uniformly lowers the year-to-year variability in System Average Interruption Duration Index without major events. Instead, for any given alternative, while it may lower the value of this metric for some utilities, it also increases it for other utilities (sometimes dramatically). Thus, we illustrate some of the trade-offs that must be considered in using the Standard 1366 method and highlight the usefulness of the metrics we have proposed in conducting these evaluations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2012

What Can Meta-Analyses Tell Us About the Reliability of Life Cycle Assessment for Decision Support?

The body of life cycle assessment (LCA) literature is vast and has grown over the last decade at a dauntingly rapid rate. Many LCAs have been published on the same or very similar technologies or products, in some cases leading to hundreds of publications. One result is the impression among decision makers that LCAs are inconclusive, owing to perceived and real variability in published estimates of life cycle impacts. Despite the extensive available literature and policy need formore conclusive assessments, only modest attempts have been made to synthesize previous research. A significant challenge to doing so are differences in characteristics of the considered technologies and inconsistencies in methodological choices (e.g., system boundaries, coproduct allocation, and impact assessment methods) among the studies that hamper easy comparisons and related decision support. An emerging trend is meta-analysis of a set of results from LCAs, which has the potential to clarify the impacts of a particular technology, process, product, or material and produce more robust and policy-relevant results. Meta-analysis in this context is defined here as an analysis of a set of published LCA results to estimate a single or multiple impacts for a single technology or a technology category, either in a statistical sense (e.g., following the practice in the biomedical sciences) or by quantitative adjustment of the underlying studies to make them more methodologically consistent. One example of the latter approach was published in Science by Farrell and colleagues (2006) clarifying the net energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of ethanol, in which adjustments included the addition of coproduct credit, the addition and subtraction of processes within the system boundary, and a reconciliation of differences in the definition of net energy metrics. Such adjustments therefore provide an even playing field on which all studies can be considered and at the same time specify the conditions of the playing field itself. Understanding the conditions under which a meta-analysis was conducted is important for proper interpretation of both the magnitude and variability in results. This special supplemental issue of the Journal of Industrial Ecology includes 12 high-quality metaanalyses and critical reviews of LCAs that advance understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of different technologies, processes, products, and materials. Also published are three contributions on methodology and related discussions of the role of meta-analysis in LCA. The goal of this special supplemental issue is to contribute to the state of the science in LCA beyond the core practice of producing independent studies on specific products or technologies by highlighting the ability of meta-analysis of LCAs to advance understanding in areas of extensive existing literature. The inspiration for the issue came from a series of meta-analyses of life cycle GHG emissions from electricity generation technologies based on research from the LCA Harmonization Project of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), a laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, which also provided financial support for this special supplemental issue. (See the editorial from this special supplemental issue [Lifset 2012], which introduces this supplemental issue and discusses the origins, funding, peer review, and other aspects.) The first article on reporting considerations for meta-analyses/critical reviews for LCA is from Heath and Mann (2012), who describe the methods used and experience gained in NREL's LCA Harmonization Project, which produced six of the studies in this special supplemental issue. Their harmonization approach adapts key features of systematic review to identify and screen published LCAs followed by a meta-analytical procedure to adjust published estimates to ones based on a consistent set of methods and assumptions to allow interstudy comparisons and conclusions to be made. In a second study on methods, Zumsteg and colleagues (2012) propose a checklist for a standardized technique to assist in conducting and reporting systematic reviews of LCAs, including meta-analysis, that is based on a framework used in evidence-based medicine. Widespread use of such a checklist would facilitate planning successful reviews, improve the ability to identify systematic reviews in literature searches, ease the ability to update content in future reviews, and allow more transparency of methods to ease peer review and more appropriately generalize findings. Finally, Zamagni and colleagues (2012) propose an approach, inspired by a meta-analysis, for categorizing main methodological topics, reconciling diverging methodological developments, and identifying future research directions in LCA. Their procedure involves the carrying out of a literature review on articles selected according to predefined criteria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep Design Data Portal (D3P) v0.01

The Deep Design Data Portal (D3P) tool was developed to demonstrate how readily accessible data sources, such as building energy model reports for design and baseline energy performance data for projects, can provide the data required for reporting to an industry initiative (AIA 2030 commitment), as well as more detailed data that makes the industry dataset more valuable to all stakeholders, enabling project level analysis and analysis of BEM industry trends. D3P provides an easier and less time-consuming way for firms to auto-extract data from this data source, compared to the current reporting workflows of the firms. The BEM reports are the first of several data sources that D3P could integrate. D3P also provides the ability for firms to review, compare, and evaluate the performance of their projects to not only their portfolio, but also to the larger anonymized industry dataset created each time a project is added to D3P. The intent of D3P is to become part of a data-sharing ecosystem to assist creating large anonymized industry datasets that are accessible to industry.

Regnier, Cynthia [Lawrence Berkeley National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2019

Representation of U.S. Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles

Extreme temperature events can have considerable negative impacts on sectors such as health, agriculture, and transportation. Observational evidence indicates the severity and frequency of warm extremes are increasing over much of the United States, but there are sizeable challenges both in estimating extreme temperature changes and in quantifying the relevant associated uncertainties. This study provides a simple statistical framework using a block maxima approach to analyze the representation of warm temperature extremes in several recent global climate model ensembles. Uncertainties due to structural model differences, grid resolution, and internal variability are characterized and discussed. Results show that models and ensembles differ greatly in the representation of extreme temperature over the United States, and variability in tail events is dependent on time and anthropogenic warming, which can influence estimates of return periods and distribution parameter estimates using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. These effects can considerably influence the uncertainty of model hindcasts and projections of extremes. Several idealized regional applications are highlighted for evaluating ensemble skill and trends, based on quantile analysis and root-mean-square errors in the overall sample and the upper tail. The results are relevant to regional climate assessments that use global model outputs and that are sensitive to extreme warm temperature. Accompanying this manuscript is a simple toolkit using the R statistical programming language for characterizing extreme events in gridded datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗