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The Effect of Faster Engine Response on the Lateral Directional Control of a Damaged Aircraft

The integration of flight control and propulsion control has been a much discussed topic, especially for emergencies where the engines may be able to help stabilize and safely land a damaged aircraft. Previous research has shown that for the engines to be effective as flight control actuators, the response time to throttle commands must be improved. Other work has developed control modes that accept a higher risk of engine failure in exchange for improved engine response during an emergency. In this effort, a nonlinear engine model (the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40k) has been integrated with a nonlinear airframe model (the Generic Transport Model) in order to evaluate the use of enhanced-response engines as alternative yaw rate control effectors. Tests of disturbance rejection and command tracking were used to determine the impact of the engines on the aircraft's dynamical behavior. Three engine control enhancements that improve the response time of the engine were implemented and tested in the integrated simulation. The enhancements were shown to increase the engine s effectiveness as a yaw rate control effector when used in an automatic feedback loop. The improvement is highly dependent upon flight condition; the airframe behavior is markedly improved at low altitude, low speed conditions, and relatively unchanged at high altitude, high speed.

May, Ryan D.↗

On the Effect of Dust Particles on Global Cloud Condensation Nuclei and Cloud Droplet Number

Aerosol-cloud interaction studies to date consider aerosol with a substantial fraction of soluble material as the sole source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Emerging evidence suggests that mineral dust can act as good CCN through water adsorption onto the surface of particles. This study provides a first assessment of the contribution of insoluble dust to global CCN and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Simulations are carried out with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative chemical transport model with an online aerosol simulation, considering emissions from fossil fuel, biomass burning, marine, and dust sources. CDNC is calculated online and explicitly considers the competition of soluble and insoluble CCN for water vapor. The predicted annual average contribution of insoluble mineral dust to CCN and CDNC in cloud-forming areas is up to 40 and 23.8%, respectively. Sensitivity tests suggest that uncertainties in dust size distribution and water adsorption parameters modulate the contribution of mineral dust to CDNC by 23 and 56%, respectively. Coating of dust by hygroscopic salts during the atmospheric aging causes a twofold enhancement of the dust contribution to CCN; the aged dust, however, can substantially deplete in-cloud supersaturation during the initial stages of cloud formation and can eventually reduce CDNC. Considering the hydrophilicity from adsorption and hygroscopicity from solute is required to comprehensively capture the dust-warm cloud interactions. The framework presented here addresses this need and can be easily integrated in atmospheric models.

Karydis, V. A.↗

Decline in Antarctic Ozone Depletion and Lower Stratospheric Chlorine Determined From Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Observations

Attribution of Antarctic ozone recovery to the Montreal protocol requires evidence that (1)Antarctic chlorine levels are declining and (2) there is a reduction in ozone depletion in response to achlorine decline. We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of O3, HCl, and N2O to demonstratethat inorganic chlorine (Cly) from 2013 to 2016 was 223 ± 93 parts per trillion lower in the Antarctic lowerstratosphere than from 2004 to 2007 and that column ozone depletion declined in response. The mean Clydecline rate, ~0.8%/yr, agrees with the expected rate based on chlorofluorocarbon lifetimes. N2Omeasurements are crucial for identifying changes in stratospheric Cly loading independent of dynamicalvariability. From 2005 to 2016, the ozone depletion and Cly time series show matching periods of decline,stability, and increase. The observed sensitivity of O3 depletion to changing Cly agrees with the sensitivitysimulated by the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry transport model integrated

Ozone recovery↗

Analysis of Launch Vehicle Liftoff Debris: Historical Perspective from Space Shuttle and Application to Artemis I

Human exploration-class launch vehicles are inherently prone to debris due to the extreme environments generated during pre-launch operations, liftoff, and flight. The use of cryogenic propellants often requires thermal protection system (TPS) coatings, typically foam, to maintain the propellant conditions in the tank and prevent an accumulation ice on the external surface of the vehicle. Some ice growth is to be expected at umbilical interfaces, vents, flanges, or brackets where it is difficult to apply TPS. This ice may come loose at any time due to wind on the launch pad, structural vibration and acoustics after rocket ignition, or aerodynamic forces during flight. This phenomena is especially apparent on vehicles with no TPS, such as the Saturn V rockets used in the Apollo Program, see Figure 1. During propellant tanking, the thermal contraction of the underlying substrate may generate cracks in the TPS (Figure 1). Chunks of TPS can release due to the expansion of ingested gas from cryopumping or from aerodynamic forces if the crack creates an offset surface. Most foams will also have a certain amount of “popcorning” where small pieces of foam will pop off during flight because of the differential between the static surface pressure and the pressure of the gas trapped in the foam cell structure. There are a number of other coating or closeout materials that may be shed from the vehicle and become debris. During pre-launch operations and liftoff, the vehicle may also be exposed to debris originating from the launch pad or ground support equipment. This debris is separate from foreign object debris, or FOD, which is not intended to be present and is strictly controlled through operations and maintenance procedures. In this case, debris is generated from hardware and materials that are necessary for launch and are subject to the intense vibration, acoustics, and direct plume impingement of the launch environment. Examples include ice from umbilicals, tape and tie wraps that protect cables, and rust or corrosion from the launch platform. While NASA has historically been aware of debris as a potential issue that could cause a failure resulting in loss of mission, loss of vehicle, or loss of crew, the likelihood and severity of that risk was not always well understood or given sufficient weight in program and flight decisions. After the Space Shuttle Columbia accident (STS-107), the investigation found that foam TPS debris shed from the external tank was the proximate cause of the damage to the orbiter wing. Six previous observations of debris released from the foam ramp that covered the bipod connecting the forward end of the orbiter to the external tank resulted in minor changes or were determined to be accepted flight risks. Two occurrences of bipod ramp foam loss were not identified until the STS-107 investigation. Despite the damage inflicted by these debris strikes, the Shuttle Program Requirements Control Board deemed the vehicle safe to fly. During the Return to Flight effort following the Columbia disaster, NASA Engineering developed a process for the assessment of debris transport, impact, and damage tolerance to support independent assessments of risk by NASA Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA). Under this system, each element (vehicle or ground system) defines a catalog of all expected debris based on launch history, component testing, or analysis. Debris transport analysis (DTA) is conducted using the debris catalog characteristics and potential flow transport mechanisms (e.g., vehicle aerodynamics, gravity, wind, plume-driven). The predicted debris impact locations and velocities are provided to the hardware owners, who use available test data and analysis to determine whether each component can withstand the impacts. In cases where the element hardware may be severely damaged or fail, the options are to mitigate the debris source through some change in design or operation, or to work with S&MA to try to characterize the probability of the impact and damage for program risk acceptance. Because of the differences in debris characteristics and transport, the DTA has been divided between the Liftoff and Ascent regimes. The development and application of Liftoff DTA methodology from the Shuttle Program to the current Artemis Program is the subject of this paper. Liftoff DTA covers the time from the start of pre-launch operations at the launch pad, up until the vehicle clears the launch tower and there is no longer any interaction with ground systems. Debris transport during this period is broadly classified as either gravity, wind, and plume-entrained (GWPE) or plume driven (PD). GWPE debris is generally lower speed, travelling in a forward-to-aft direction. PD transport includes flow features from the rocket ignition transient, as well as plume impingement and recirculation that occur as the vehicle lifts off the launch platform. In these cases, the debris typically moves in an aft-to-forward direction at higher speeds. The applicable transport mechanisms must be considered for each piece of debris depending on the material, and release location and time. For example, rust or metallic debris from the tower could fall (GWPE) and impact the vehicle before landing on the launch platform deck where it could be also be transported by plume impingement (PD). However, falling ice (GWPE) from an umbilical is unlikely to survive impact with the vehicle or launch platform and be available for PD transport. Modeling of debris transport is accomplished using a set of DTA tools which simulate debris trajectories subject to a reference frame acceleration (i.e., gravity) and aerodynamic drag. Where the trajectory encounters a solid surface, the debris is allowed to rebound with a specified coefficient of restitution. The drag is calculated by interpolating the fluid state at each point in the debris trajectory from high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the launch vehicle and pad. The CFD data may either be static (steady state or time averaged), typically for GWPE transport, or dynamic (time-accurate) for PD flow features like the ignition transient. Examples of the CFD flow field solutions for the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and launch pad are shown in Figure 2. Typical SLS debris trajectory predictions from DTA are illustrated in Figure 3. The final version of this paper will include a more detailed examination of the Liftoff DTA process developed during the Shuttle Program, and how it has been augmented and applied to the SLS rocket under the Artemis Program. Comparisons with debris observations from the Artemis I launch will demonstrate validation of the tools and methodology.

Debris↗

Turbulence modeling for non-equilibrium flows

Two projects are reported. The first is the development and testing of an eddy viscosity transport model. This project also is a starting point for our work on developing computational tools for solving turbulence models in complex geometries. The second project is a stochastic analysis of the realizability of Reynolds stress transport models.

Durbin, Paul A.↗

Isotopic Effects in Nuclear Fragmentation and GCR Transport Problems

Improving the accuracy of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment and transport models is an important goal in preparing for studies of the projected risks and the efficiency of potential mitigations methods for space exploration. In this paper we consider the effects of the isotopic composition of the primary cosmic rays and the isotopic dependence of nuclear fragmentation cross sections on GCR transport models. Measurements are used to describe the isotopic composition of the GCR including their modulation throughout the solar cycle. The quantum multiple-scattering approach to nuclear fragmentation (QMSFRG) is used as the data base generator in order to accurately describe the odd-even effect in fragment production. Using the Badhwar and O'Neill GCR model, the QMSFRG model and the HZETRN transport code, the effects of the isotopic dependence of the primary GCR composition and on fragment production for transport problems is described for a complete GCR isotopic-grid. The principle finding of this study is that large errors ( 100%) will occur in the mass-flux spectra when comparing the complete isotopic-grid (141 ions) to a reduced isotopic-grid (59 ions), however less significant errors 30%) occur in the elemental-flux spectra. Because the full isotopic-grid is readily handled on small computer work-stations, it is recommended that they be used for future GCR studies.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Solvent Transport in Disordered and Dynamic Membrane Pores: Implications for Reverse Osmosis and Nanofiltration Membranes

Pressure-driven separations with nanoporous membranes, such as reverse osmosis and nanofiltration, play a vital role in addressing water scarcity and enabling resource recovery. Understanding water or solvent transport in membrane pores is essential for advancing membrane separation technologies. A key question in transport modeling is to establish a relationship between solvent permeability and membrane porous structure properties, such as porosity or pore size. The nano- and subnanometer pores in polymeric membranes such as reverse osmosis and nanofiltration membranes are highly tortuous and dynamically connected, which challenges the conventional methods of transport modeling. This study addresses this challenge by developing a theoretical framework to describe solvent transport through membranes with dynamic and disordered porous structure. Specifically, we propose a lattice model to describe the pore network, while preserving the viscous nature of solvent permeation. We further establish a relationship between solvent permeability and membrane porosity or pore size, which is validated by molecular dynamics simulations and experimental data. By integrating this relationship into the solution-friction model, we define pore connectivity and local friction coefficient to quantify the impact of pore structure on solvent permeability. Our analysis highlights the dominant influence of pore connectivity on the permeability of reverse osmosis and nanofiltration membranes, particularly when the pore size approaches the dimensions of solvent molecules. Overall, this study provides critical insights into water and solvent transport mechanisms in nanoporous membranes, opening the door for strategies to substantially enhance membrane performance.

membranes↗

Coupling Processes Between Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

This is the first semi-annual report for NAS5-97039 summarizing work performed for January 1997 through June 1997. Work in this project is related to NAS1-20666, also funded by NASA ACMAP. The work funded in this project also benefits from work at AER associated with the AER three-dimensional isentropic transport model funded by NASA AEAP and the AER two-dimensional climate-chemistry model (co-funded by Department of Energy). The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes between atmospheric chemistry and climate. Model predictions of the future distributions of trace gases in the atmosphere constitute an important component of the input necessary for quantitative assessments of global change. We will concentrate on the changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The key modeling tools for this work are the AER two-dimensional chemistry-transport model, the AER two-dimensional stratospheric sulfate model, and the AER three-wave interactive model with full chemistry.

Ko, M. K. W.↗

Sensitivity Studies for Assimilated Ozone Profiles

An ozone data assimilation system at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office (DAO) produces three-dimensional global ozone fields. They are obtained by assimilating ozone retrieved from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) measurements into an off-line parameterized chemistry and transport model. In this talk we focus on the quality of lower stratospheric assimilated ozone profiles. Ozone in the lower stratosphere plays a key role in the forcing of climate. A biased ozone field in this region will adversely impact calculations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, when used as a first guess in retrievals, the values determined from satellite observations. The SBUV/2 ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone profiles in the lower stratosphere are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. We investigate the sensitivity of assimilated ozone profiles to changes in a variety of system inputs: TOMS and SBUV/2 data selection, forecast and observations error covariance models, inclusion or omission of a parameterized chemistry model, and different versions of DAO assimilated wind fields used to drive the transport model. Comparisons of assimilated ozone fields with independent observations, primarily ozone sondes, are used to determine the impact of each of these changes.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

L(sub 1) Adaptive Control Design for NASA AirSTAR Flight Test Vehicle

In this paper we present a new L(sub 1) adaptive control architecture that directly compensates for matched as well as unmatched system uncertainty. To evaluate the L(sub 1) adaptive controller, we take advantage of the flexible research environment with rapid prototyping and testing of control laws in the Airborne Subscale Transport Aircraft Research system at the NASA Langley Research Center. We apply the L(sub 1) adaptive control laws to the subscale turbine powered Generic Transport Model. The presented results are from a full nonlinear simulation of the Generic Transport Model and some preliminary pilot evaluations of the L(sub 1) adaptive control law.

Gregory, Irene M.↗

Measurement of Fission Product Concentration Profiles in AGR-3/4 TRISO Fuel Graphitic Matrix and Nuclear Graphites

The third Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) irradiation experiment, AGR-3/4, was designed to investigate the migration of fission products in fuel compact graphitic matrix and reactor graphite components. Using destructive methods, radial fission product concentration profiles were measured for gamma-emitting fission products (e.g., Ag-110m, Cs-134, and Eu-154) and beta-emitting Sr-90 in irradiated graphitic and graphite components from six different AGR-3/4 irradiation capsules. These new measured concentration profiles can now be compared to non-destructive measurements and fission product transport simulations and will be used to derive new diffusivities and sorptivities to support refinement of fission product transport models and high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) source-term analyses. Each capsule in the AGR-3/4 experiment had four fuel compacts in the middle of two concentric rings of graphitic matrix material, PCEA graphite, or IG-110 graphite. In addition to the approximately 1898 tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles in each compact, there were 20 designed to fail (DTF) particles coated only in pyrocarbon so that they released fission products into the surrounding cylindrical rings of carbonaceous materials. Destructive sampling of the rings involved machining/milling material from around the circumference of the rings, collecting that material, and performing radiochemical analyses on it. Milling operations were performed in multiple steps or segments, and each segment was generally 0.508 mm (0.020 in) thick. Knowing the radial position at which each segment was milled, the volume of the milled material at each segment, and the fission product content in each segment, the radial fission product concentrations were constructed for select isotopes in each ring. Ag-110m profiles had the most variation. Some profiles were peaked at an inner or outer surface. Some were peaked at the middle of the ring wall thickness. Some increased radially outward, and some decreased radially outward. These types of variations and the fact that the measured profiles do not generally compare favorably with the transport model employed for AGR-3/4 may adversely impact the ability to extract reasonable transport parameters for this isotope. In many cases, the Cs-134 profiles decreased somewhat linearly in the outward radial direction, and in cursory comparisons, the shapes of these profiles appeared similar to those from model predictions. The step changes in concentration across the inner-outer ring gap were generally consistent with the model predictions as well. In some cases, there were local maxima in concentration at the outer surface of the rings. This suggests that fission products could have transported in the small gaps between the inner ring and the outer ring and between the outer ring and the sink ring such that some portion of a given fission product can bypass diffusion through the ring itself. The analysis of the small nubs on the outer surfaces of some of the outer rings revealed fission product concentrations in the nubs that were often higher than in the outermost segments of the rings. This further supports the hypothesis that short-circuit, gap transport occurred, causing relatively high surface concentrations on the outer surfaces of the rings. Eu-154 and Sr-90 profiles tend to have very similar shapes, suggesting that they transport via the same mechanisms. The observed profiles were indicative of a transport process where the isotopes are sorbed on the inner surface of the ring, but diffusion into the ring from that surface is quite slow. Some elevated concentrations of Sr-90 (relative to Eu-154) on the outer surface of a ring suggested that rapid, gas-gap transport of gaseous precursor Kr-90 and volatile Rb-90 could have occurred prior to their decaying to Sr-90. Overall, the Eu 154 and Sr-90 profiles were still very similar, which indicates that the transport of short-lived Sr-90 precursors is not a major effect. In some capsules, the qualitative Sr-90 behavior across the ring gaps was consistent with the model (using the available legacy Sr-90 transport parameters), but in other capsules the model was inconsistent with the measurements and seems to underestimate the amount of Sr-90 in the outer rings. The total ring Sr-90 inventories were estimated for all the rings that were subject to physical sampling. These results will be used to adjust the predicted particle and/or compact releases used in the AGR-3/4 fission product transport model. Given the different irradiation temperatures among the capsules and the rings, it was not possible to discern fundamental differences in the transport of isotopes within the different carbon materials, i.e., graphitic matrix, IG-110, or PCEA. It may be possible to do this in the course of determining transport from the concentration profiles in future work.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The Correlation Between Atmospheric Dust Deposition to the Surface Ocean and SeaWiFS Ocean Color: A Global Satellite-Based Analysis

Since the atmospheric deposition of iron has been linked to primary productivity in various oceanic regions, we have conducted an objective study of the correlation of dust deposition and satellite remotely sensed surface ocean chlorophyll concentrations. We present a global analysis of the correlation between atmospheric dust deposition derived from a satellite-based 3-D atmospheric transport model and SeaWiFs estimates of ocean color. We use the monthly mean dust deposition fields of Ginoux et al. which are based on a global model of dust generation and transport. This model is driven by atmospheric circulation from the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) for the period 1995-1998. This global dust model is constrained by several satellite estimates of standard circulation characteristics. We then perform an analysis of the correlation between the dust deposition and the 1998 SeaWIFS ocean color data for each 2.0 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid point, for each month of the year. The results are surprisingly robust. The region between 40 S and 60 S has correlation coefficients from 0.6 to 0.95, statistically significant at the 0.05 level. There are swaths of high correlation at the edges of some major ocean current systems. We interpret these correlations as reflecting areas that have shear related turbulence bringing nitrogen and phosphorus from depth into the surface ocean, and the atmospheric supply of iron provides the limiting nutrient and the correlation between iron deposition and surface ocean chlorophyll is high. There is a region in the western North Pacific with high correlation, reflecting the input of Asian dust to that region. The southern hemisphere has an average correlation coefficient of 0.72 compared that in the northern hemisphere of 0.42 consistent with present conceptual models of where atmospheric iron deposition may play a role in surface ocean biogeochemical cycles. The spatial structure of the correlation fields will be discussed within the context of guiding the design of field programs.

Erickson, D. J., III↗

Lightning NOx Production and Its Consequences for Tropospheric Chemistry

Cloud-resolving case-study simulations of convective transport and lightning NO production have yielded results which are directly applicable to the design of lightning parameterizations for global chemical transport models. In this work we have used cloud-resolving models (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE) and MMS) to drive an off-line cloud-scale chemical transport model (CSCTM). The CSCTM, in conjunction with aircraft measurements of NO x in thunderstorms and ground-l;>ased lightning observations, has been used to constrain the amount of NO produced per flash. Cloud and chemistry simulations for several case studies of storms in different environments will be presented. Observed lightning flash rates have been incorporated into the CSCTM, and several scenarios of NO production per intracloud (IC) and per cloud-to-ground (CG) flash have been tested for each storm. The resulting NOx mixing ratios are compared with aircraft measurements taken within the storm (typically the anvil region) to determine the most likely NO production scenario. The range of values of NO production per flash (or per meter of lightning channel length) that have been deduced from the model will be shown and compared with values of production in the literature that have been deduced from observed NO spikes and from anvil flux calculations. Results show that on a per flash basis, IC flashes are nearly as productive of NO as CG flashes. This result simplifies the lightning parameterization for global models (ie., an algorithm for estimating the IC/CG ratio is not necessary). Vertical profiles of lightning NOx mass at the end of the 3-D storm simulations have been summarized to yield suggested profiles for use in global models. Estimates of mean NO production per flash vary by a factor of three from one simulated storm to another. When combined with the global flash rate of 44 flashes per second from NASA's Optical Transient Detector (OTD) measurements, these estimates and the results from other techniques yield global NO production rates of2-9 TgN/year. Simulations of the photochemistry over the 24 hours following a storm has been performed to determine the additional ozone production which can be attributed to lightning NO. Convective transport of HOx precursors leads to the generation of a HOx plume which substantially aids the downstream ozone production.

Pickering, Kenneth E.↗

Lightning NO(x) Production and Its Consequences for Tropospheric Chemistry

Cloud-resolving case-study simulations of convective transport and lightning NO production have yielded results which are directly applicable to the design of lightning parameterizations for global chemical transport models. In this work we have used cloud-resolving models (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE) and MMS) to drive an off-line cloud-scale chemical transport model (CSCTM). The CSCTM, in conjunction with aircraft measurements of NO(x) in thunderstorms and ground-based lightning observations, has been used to constrain the amount of NO produced per flash. Cloud and chemistry simulations for several case studies of storms in different environments will be presented. Observed lightning flash rates have been incorporated into the CSCTM, and several scenarios of NO production per intracloud (IC) and per cloud-to-ground (CG) flash have been tested for each storm. The resulting NO(x) mixing ratios are compared with aircraft measurements taken within the storm (typically the anvil region) to determine the most likely NO production scenario. The range of values of NO production per flash (or per meter of lightning channel length) that have been deduced from the model will be shown and compared with values of production in the literature that have been deduced from observed NO spikes and from anvil flux calculations. Results show that on a per flash basis, IC flashes are nearly as productive of NO as CG flashes. This result simplifies the lightning parameterization for global models (ie., an algorithm for estimating the ICKG ratio is not necessary). Vertical profiles of lightning NOx mass at the end of the 3-D storm simulations have been summarized to yield suggested profiles for use in global models. Estimates of mean NO production per flash vary by a factor of three from one simulated storm to another. When combined with the global flash rate of 44 flashes per second from NASA's Optical Transient Detector (OTD) measurements, these estimates and the results from other techniques yield global NO production rates of 2-9 TgN/year. Simulations of the photochemistry over the 24 hours following a storm has been performed to determine the additional ozone production which can be attributed to lightning NO. Convective transport of HO(x), precursors leads to the generation of a HO(x), plume which substantially aids the downstream ozone production.

Pickering, Kenneth E.↗

Integrated modeling of alpha particle losses in JET DT plasmas

Alpha particle confinement is crucial for sustaining burning plasmas and designing future reactor concepts. Along with classical/prompt losses, various magnetohydrodynamic instabilities can lead to wave-particle interactions which can transport alpha particles outward from the plasma. This can result in a reduction in plasma heating/performance, and, at worst, damage in-vessel components. Joint European Torus’s recent deuterium–tritium campaigns in 2021–2023 have produced numerous alpha particle loss measurements with its scintillator probe and Faraday cup array fast ion loss detectors as discussed in Bonofiglo et al (2024 Nucl. Fusion 64 096038). This paper will report on integrated energetic particle transport modeling in support of those measurements. The modeling is accomplished with the TRANSP and ORBIT-kick codes with the use of recently developed reduced models which calculate mode structure, amplitude, and the evolving dynamics. When possible, constraints and comparisons to experiment are conducted. Case studies are performed on a variety of magnetohydrodynamic activity, including: fishbones, tearing modes (TMs), and sawtooth crashes. Additionally, a special case of an alpha-driven toroidal Alfvén eigenmode is briefly discussed, where modeling showed marginally weak alpha losses and was unable to support experimental observations. Coupled effects between a TM and toroidal field ripple are presented and were unable to replicate the observations in lost particle pitch but did duplicate the localized flattening of the measured neutron profile. Additional modeling results compare the magnitude of losses and energy/velocity-space sensitivities against experimental observations/measurements for each scenario. This work corroborates numeric alpha transport modeling while also identifying model deficiencies. While this report details alpha transport, it also presents open issues for discussion in assessing the validity of our numerical models towards burning plasmas.

Bonofiglo, Phillip J. [Princeton Plasma Physics La↗

Quantifying subsurface parameter and transport uncertainty using surrogate modelling and environmental tracers

Here, we combine physics-based groundwater reactive transport modelling with machine-learning techniques to quantify hydrogeological model and solute transport predictive uncertainties. We train an artificial neural network (ANN) on a dataset of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations generated using a high-fidelity groundwater reactive transport model. Using the trained ANN as a surrogate model to reproduce the input–output response of the high-fidelity reactive transport model, we quantify the posterior distributions of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic forcing conditions using Markov chain Monte Carlo calibration against field observations of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations. We demonstrate the methodology with a model application that predicts Chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) solute transport at a contaminated field site in Wyoming, United States. Our results show that including 3 H observations in the calibration dataset reduced the uncertainty in the estimated permeability field and infiltration rates, compared to calibration against hydraulic heads alone. However, predictive uncertainty quantification shows that CFC-12 transport predictions conditioned to the parameter posterior distributions cannot reproduce the field measurements. We found that calibrating the model to hydraulic head and 3 H observations results in groundwater mean ages that are too large to explain the observed CFC-12 concentrations. The coupling of the physics-based reactive transport model with the machine-learning surrogate model allows us to efficiently quantify model parameter and predictive uncertainties, which is typically computationally intractable using reactive transport models alone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗