Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “time series prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

A noise assessment and prediction system

A system has been designed to provide an assessment of noise levels that result from testing activities at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Md. The system receives meteorological data from surface stations and an upper air sounding system. The data from these systems are sent to a meteorological model, which provides forecasting conditions for up to three hours from the test time. The meteorological data are then used as input into an acoustic ray trace model which projects sound level contours onto a two-dimensional display of the surrounding area. This information is sent to the meteorological office for verification, as well as the range control office, and the environmental office. To evaluate the noise level predictions, a series of microphones are located off the reservation to receive the sound and transmit this information back to the central display unit. The computer models are modular allowing for a variety of models to be utilized and tested to achieve the best agreement with data. This technique of prediction and model validation will be used to improve the noise assessment system.

Olsen, Robert O.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of substituents on the vectorial difference static dipole upon excitation in synthetic bacteriochlorins

Organic dye aggregates have been shown to exhibit exciton delocalization in natural and synthetic systems. Such dye aggregates show promise in the emerging area of quantum information science (QIS). We believe that the difference static dipole (Δd) is an essential dye parameter in the development of molecular QIS systems. However, a foundational understanding of the structural factors influencing Δd remains elusive. Bacteriochlorins play a vital role in photosynthesis due to their exceptional photophysical properties. Therefore, bacteriochlorins are particularly suitable dyes for the construction of aggregate systems for QIS. Synthetic bacteriochlorins further offer stability and tunability via chemical modifications. Here, the influence of substituents on the Δd of monomeric (non-aggregated) dyes was investigated via density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent (TD-)DFT in a set of 5-methoxybacteriochlorins progressively substituted with ethynyl, phenyl, and phenylethynyl substituents at the 3,13- and 3,13,15-positions of the macrocycle. Symmetrically substituted 5-methoxybacteriochlorins were shown to have the largest Δd. The increase in Δd in the series of dyes was largely due to changes in orientation of the static dipole upon excitation rather than large changes in magnitude. In addition, the transition dipole (μ) and the angle between Δd and μ (ζ) were calculated. Three 5-methoxybacteriochlorins with high predicted Δd and μ were synthesized and characterized spectroscopically. The trend in Δd values empirically determined using the solvatochromic Stokes shift method was comparable with the DFT calculations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trajectory prediction dimensionality reduction for low-cost connected automated vehicle systems

Here, to facilitate low-cost connected automated vehicle (CAV) system development, this study proposes two interpretable dimensionality reduction techniques in vehicle trajectory prediction, i.e., the piecewise Taylor series approximation (PTA) and the piecewise Fourier series approximation (PFA), to lower computation complexity, reduce device investment, and decrease computation energy consumption. Two benchmarks are developed, the long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model without dimensionality reduction and the LSTM-based model with encoder-decoder (a widely used dimensionality reduction technique). Results show that the four predictions have similar accuracy, and the training time (proportional to computation energy consumption) of models with dimensionality reduction techniques is greatly reduced. The reduction is even more significant when PTA/PFA is used. Sensitivity analysis advises PFA/PTA parameter selections to reduce computation complexity without significant loss of prediction accuracy. Further, the robustness of the LSTM PTA/PFA is proven by the investigation of data noises.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Multi-Instrument Cloud Condensation Nuclei Spectrum Product (Final Technical Report)

A wealth of observational data exists on the characteristics of atmospheric particulate matter, over multiple years, at the DOE ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site. This site is located in a region of the country that frequently experiences weather extremes, and that is removed from many local sources of pollution but is affected by transported smoke, dust, and urban emissions. The relationships between particulate matter, cloud formation and evolution, and precipitation are therefore of strong interest, and are being explored via modeling on a variety of scales. These models require as input detailed information on the characteristics of particles capable of serving as the nuclei for cloud formation. Sufficient data exist to be able to put together a picture of the nature of the total aerosol and the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) subset, and their variability, through merged data products. This study was aimed at exploiting the multiple measurement types at SGP to develop the first such multi-year estimates. Further, the resulting data were analyzed to understand temporal patterns ranging from hourly to seasonal, thereby gaining insights into the particle sources affecting the atmosphere in this region. DOE-funded datasets that were analyzed in this study include total particle number concentrations, submicron aerosol scattering coefficients, dry aerosol size distributions, and more recently, time-resolved submicron aerosol chemical composition. Data are also available for the number concentrations of particles that are activated in a cloud condensation nucleus instrument at a series of setpoint supersaturations, providing direct observations of the number concentrations of “CCN”. This variable is the quantity that is generally desired for inclusion in numerical models that seek to represent and predict the impacts of varying aerosol characteristics on the formation and microphysical properties of clouds. One limitation of the use of direct CCN observations is that they are not available for supersaturations larger than about 1%, which is insufficient for deep convection and may be insufficient even for shallow convection, depending on the nature of the available CCN and the dynamics of the cloud. We developed a data-based approach to representing the full aerosol size spectrum with size-dependent hygroscopicity, and used this to extrapolate CCN spectra beyond the limited measurements. Five years of SGP aerosol data (2009 -2013) were analyzed. As a side product of our work, we identified and communicated several previously-unflagged data quality issues. The resulting merged aerosol distributions, along with fits for seasonal averages, were published and submitted to the ARM archive as a special value-added product (VAP; submitted as a PI product). CCN spectra were computed for the same data period and will similarly be published and submitted to the archive for use by the community. We also note that our methodologies and findings have been discussed at several Joint ARM User Facility/Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Principal Investigators Meetings and that recent ARM/ASR aerosol data reporting strategies have included similar ideas for data merging, indicating that this work has had a lasting impact on ARM aerosol data acquisition and reporting. The proposed work advances the science of the interactions of aerosols, clouds and precipitation, with direct application to improve representation of such interactions for clouds in regional and global climate models. The archived data will continue to serve research studies in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Long-Period Tidal Variations in the Length of Day

A new model of long-period tidal variations in length of day is developed. The model comprises 80 spectral lines with periods between 18.6 years and 4.7 days, and it consistently includes effects of mantle anelasticity and dynamic ocean tides for all lines. The anelastic properties followWahr and Bergen; experimental confirmation for their results now exists at the fortnightly period, but there remains uncertainty when extrapolating to the longest periods. The ocean modeling builds on recent work with the fortnightly constituent, which suggests that oceanic tidal angular momentum can be reliably predicted at these periods without data assimilation. This is a critical property when modeling most long-period tides, for which little observational data exist. Dynamic ocean effects are quite pronounced at shortest periods as out-of-phase rotation components become nearly as large as in-phase components. The model is tested against a 20 year time series of space geodetic measurements of length of day. The current international standard model is shown to leave significant residual tidal energy, and the new model is found to mostly eliminate that energy, with especially large variance reduction for constituents Sa, Ssa, Mf, and Mt.

LOD tidal oscillations↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Synthesis Method to Auralize Rotor Noise During Transitional Flight

This paper describes a new capability to synthesize Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicle rotor/propeller loading and thickness noise and broadband self noise for transitional flight auralization. A vehicle smoothly transitioning between flight states is approximated here as transitioning in time through a series of trimmed steady-state flight conditions. To generate information that helps synthesize loading and thickness noise for transitional flight, this paper describes the development of a tool that combines blade loading, motion, and geometry data from a series of separate trimmed flight states. This paper also describes a method to combine broadband self noise acoustic predictions, each representing a separate trimmed flight state, to synthesize broadband self noise for transitional flight. Different flight profiles of the six-passenger NASA UAM Quadrotor reference vehicle demonstrate these capabilities, with each profile specified by a series of trimmed flight states.

Auralization↗
NASA NTRS1991

Lyapunov exponent of magnetospheric activity from AL time series

A correlation dimension analysis of the AE index indicates that the magnetosphere behaves as a low-dimensional chaotic system with a dimension close to 4. Similar techniques are used to determine if the system's behavior is due to an intrinsic sensitivity to initial conditions and thus is truly chaotic. The quantity used to measure the sensitivity to initial conditions is the Liapunov exponent. Its calculation for AL shows that it is nonzero (0.11 + or - 0.05/min). This gives the exponential rate at which initially similar configurations of the magnetosphere evolve into completely different states. Also, predictions of deterministic nonlinear models are expected to deviate from the observed behavior at the same rate.

Vassiliadis, D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A new method for solving the linearized 1D Vlasov–Poisson system yielding a new class of solutions

We describe a new method for solving the linearized 1D Vlasov–Poisson system by using properties of Cauchy-type integrals. Our method remedies critical flaws of the two standard methods, reveals a previously unrecognized Gaussian-in-time-like decay, and can also account for an externally applied electric field. The Landau approximation involves deforming the Bromwich contour around the poles closest to the real axis due to the analytically continued dielectric function, finding the long-time behavior for a stable system: Landau damping. Jackson's generalization encircles all poles while sending the contour to infinity, assuming its contribution vanishes, which is not true in general. This gives incorrect solutions for physically reasonable configurations and can exhibit pathological behavior, of which we show examples. The van Kampen method expresses the solution for a stable equilibrium as a continuous superposition of waves, resulting in an opaque integral. Case's generalization includes unstable systems and predicts a decaying discrete mode for each growing discrete mode, an apparent contradiction to both the Jackson solution and ours. We show, without imposing additional constraints, that the decaying modes are never present in the time evolution due to an exact cancellation with part of the continuum. Our solution is free of integral expressions, is obtained using algebra and Laurent series expansions, does not rely on analytic continuations, and results in a correct asymptotically convergent form in the case of infinite sums. The analysis used can be readily applied in higher-dimensional, electromagnetic systems and also provides a new technique for evaluating certain inverse Laplace transforms.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Genetic Basis of Wild Boar ( Sus scrofa ) and Its Connection to Classical Swine Fever Spread

Classical swine fever (CSF) is the one of the most devastating contagious diseases in domestic swine and wild boar/pigs (Sus scrofa). Population genetics is often used to estimate animal dispersal and can also help evaluate host population connectivity, which is crucial for understanding pathogen dispersal. We surveyed genetic population structure of boars using MIG-seq analysis to clarify the geographic barriers that influence boar dispersal in north-central Japan and to demonstrate the relationship between the spread of CSF infection among boars and their population structure. We obtained 382 single-nucleotide polymorphisms from 348 wild boar samples, and the results of STRUCTURE analysis indicated that the highest ΔK value was at K = 2, followed by K = 4. Based on these results, it is evident that the Abukuma river, a major river within north-central Japan, does not act as a barrier to the gene flow of boars, but rather that human infrastructure hinders their dispersal. Further, according to the time series change in the capture site of CSF-infected wild boar and the sum of the probability of belonging to each of the four clades in individual CSF-infected wild boar, our results indicated that the genetic structure of boar populations was correlated with the outbreak pathway of CSF across our study region. Our study suggests that predictions of disease spread, especially for widely distributed host species, is challenging because of the risk of cryptic breaks and changes in wide range connectivity; however, understanding the genetic population structure of wild boar can be a useful tool for predicting the spread of CSF. We concluded that genetic analysis of host population structure may have the possibility to improve predictions of the future dynamics of disease spread.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of RMI Ejecta Sourcing from Reconstructed Interfaces in 2D FLAG Flyer-Plate Simulations

This study investigates the performance of RMI ejecta sourcing from a reconstructed interface in two-dimensional FLAG ejecta flyer-plate simulations. Enabling the RMI ejecta model to operate on reconstructed interfaces has been a longstanding challenge in FLAG, limiting its applicability to experiments in which interface reconstruction is not required. Addressing this limitation is therefore an important step toward expanding the model’s predictive capability. The first phase of this effort focused on identifying a flyer-plate/target configuration that produces large ejecta clouds from two distinct shocks using the standard RMI ejecta model. A series of simulations examined the effects of flyer composition, layer thickness, and mesh resolution on shock structure and ejecta formation. VISAR traces were used to evaluate shock timing and identify configurations that produced a clear double-shock response. A copper middle-layer flyer with a doubled tin layer yielded the most favorable shock characteristics and was selected as the baseline configuration. After confirming this configuration performed as expected when running a reference FLAG version, it became the basis for three simulations: (1) a standard two-dimensional ejecta flyer-plate calculation using a reference FLAG version, (2) the same calculation with the reconstructed interface option enabled, and (3) a calculation employing ALE strategies to force the ejecta model to operate on the reconstructed interface. While the baseline simulation produced the expected ejecta response, the reconstructed interface approach did not result in measurable ejecta, indicating that this capability remains under development. These results highlight both the progress made and the remaining challenges in extending the RMI ejecta model to reconstructed interfaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1976

Analytical evaluation of tilting proprotor wind tunnel test requirements

Specific test requirements related to the wind tunnel testing of the XV-15 advanced tilt rotor research aircraft were determined. The following analytical tools were developed: (1) digital simulation of the XV-15, incorporating a simplified tunnel support model, control system loop, measurement lags, gust disturbances, and sensor noise, (2) specialization of existing data analysis programs to the high order XV-15 dynamical model (transfer function program, a time series analysis program, an advanced maximum likelihood parameter identification program), (3) several auxiliary programs to provide estimates of damping from transfer functions as well as calculations of model decomposition of system response. The following results were discussed: (1) modelling of the aircraft, instrumentation, and controls, (2) results of the rotor/cantilever wing model and coupled wing, (3) examples of data prediction with system identification techniques, and (4) detailed conclusions and recommendations.

Hall, W. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Development of a solution adaptive unstructured scheme for quasi-3D inviscid flows through advanced turbomachinery cascades

The objective of the present research is to develop a general solution adaptive scheme for the accurate prediction of inviscid quasi-three-dimensional flow in advanced compressor and turbine designs. The adaptive solution scheme combines an explicit finite-volume time-marching scheme for unstructured triangular meshes and an advancing front triangular mesh scheme with a remeshing procedure for adapting the mesh as the solution evolves. The unstructured flow solver has been tested on a series of two-dimensional airfoil configurations including a three-element analytic test case presented here. Mesh adapted quasi-three-dimensional Euler solutions are presented for three spanwise stations of the NASA rotor 67 transonic fan. Computed solutions are compared with available experimental data.

Usab, William J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Optimal periodic control for spacecraft pointing and attitude determination

A new approach to autonomous magnetic roll/yaw control of polar-orbiting, nadir-pointing momentum bias spacecraft is considered as the baseline attitude control system for the next Tiros series. It is shown that the roll/yaw dynamics with magnetic control are periodically time varying. An optimal periodic control law is then developed. The control design features a state estimator that estimates attitude, attitude rate, and environmental torque disturbances from Earth sensor and sun sensor measurements; no gyros are needed. The state estimator doubles as a dynamic attitude determination and prediction function. In addition to improved performance, the optimal controller allows a much smaller momentum bias than would otherwise be necessary. Simulation results are given.

Pittelkau, Mark E.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Residual Strength Analyses of Monolithic Structures

Finite-element fracture simulation methodology predicts the residual strength of damaged aircraft structures. The methodology uses the critical crack-tip-opening-angle (CTOA) fracture criterion to characterize the fracture behavior of the material. The CTOA fracture criterion assumes that stable crack growth occurs when the crack-tip angle reaches a constant critical value. The use of the CTOA criterion requires an elastic- plastic, finite-element analysis. The critical CTOA value is determined by simulating fracture behavior in laboratory specimens, such as a compact specimen, to obtain the angle that best fits the observed test behavior. The critical CTOA value appears to be independent of loading, crack length, and in-plane dimensions. However, it is a function of material thickness and local crack-front constraint. Modeling the local constraint requires either a three-dimensional analysis or a two-dimensional analysis with an approximation to account for the constraint effects. In recent times as the aircraft industry is leaning towards monolithic structures with the intention of reducing part count and manufacturing cost, there has been a consistent effort at NASA Langley to extend critical CTOA based numerical methodology in the analysis of integrally-stiffened panels.In this regard, a series of fracture tests were conducted on both flat and curved aluminum alloy integrally-stiffened panels. These flat panels were subjected to uniaxial tension and during the test, applied load-crack extension, out-of-plane displacements and local deformations around the crack tip region were measured. Compact and middle-crack tension specimens were tested to determine the critical angle (wc) using three-dimensional code (ZIP3D) and the plane-strain core height (hJ using two-dimensional code (STAGS). These values were then used in the STAGS analysis to predict the fracture behavior of the integrally-stiffened panels. The analyses modeled stable tearing, buckling, and crack branching at the integral stiffener using different values of critical CTOA for different material thicknesses and orientation. Comparisons were made between measured and predicted load-crack extension, out-of-plane displacements and local deformations around the crack tip region. Simultaneously, three-dimensional capabilities to model crack branching and to monitor stable crack growth of multiple cracks in a large thick integrally-stiffened flat panels were implemented in three-dimensional finite element code (ZIP3D) and tested by analyzing the integrally-stiffened panels tested at Alcoa. The residual strength of the panels predicted from STAGS and ZP3D code compared very well with experimental data. In recent times, STAGS software has been updated with new features and now one can have combinations of solid and shell elements in the residual strength analysis of integrally-stiffened panels.

Forth, Scott↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Low-Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) Experimental Science Plan

The Low-Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) Program is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve the United States’ explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to low-yield and potentially evasive underground nuclear testing. The LYNM Program focuses on researching, discovering, and exploiting unique and useful signatures, from all available technologies and sensors (e.g., seismic, acoustic, electromagnetic, gases, and particulates (both stable and radioactive)). Four Department of Energy laboratories participate in LYNM and together are referred to as the ‘quad-lab’. The R&D program execution is performed under NNSA defined structures known as “ventures”. Four science ventures were established: 1) Explosion Source Functions; 2) Containment of Low-Yield Underground Tests; 3) Local Signatures; 4) Dynamic Monitoring Networks. To organize and execute the large field scale experiment a fifth venture was established: 5) Physics Experiment One (PE-1). As part of the LYNM Program, a series of experiments are planned at various scales and levels of venture involvement. These vary from those that involve a subset of labs and/or LYNM ventures (e.g., small experiments), to full quad-lab LYNM Program field-scale integrated experiments. Such experiments may involve chemical explosions with tracer materials or other means of simulating the expected signals from a nuclear explosion. The LYNM Program does not conduct actual nuclear explosions. Since 1992, the U.S. has observed a moratorium on underground nuclear explosions. This document is intended to provide the underlying scientific basis for the LYNM planned experimental work. Each specific LYNM experiment will develop a goals, objectives, and requirements (GOR) plan following the guidance in this document. The LYNM technical staff will define the numbers and types of experiments required over the course of the Program based on technical needs and within funding constraints. As with any scientific experiment series, the number and types of experiments may change based upon the experimental results obtained. An experiment that agrees with models/codes/software signature predictions may need fewer repetitions/variations, depending upon the level of statistical rigor desired, as compared to one in which the predictions and experimental data do not match. The large LYNM field-scale integrated experiments require the longest lead-time for planning, and these are discussed in more detail near the end of this document.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - Simulated Wave

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis, hydrogen compression and storage, and variable hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production using a single, simulated wave energy conversion device. The electrolyzer is a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen. While the unit supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. For the wave energy, NLR used a wave energy converter model from PacWave. These devices can be equipped with accumulators and pressure relief values to smooth the power output by storing and releasing hydraulic energy. Using a peak power output of 10 MW, the model created two 25-minute profiles: one with and one without the accumulators and pressure relief valves. To down select the profile data from the native resolution of 20 Hz to 1 Hz, NLR took the mean of every 20 data points. NLR experimented with two simulated wave energy power plants: one that peaks at 10 MW, and one that peaks at 5 MW. These profiles were scaled for the physical 1.25 MW electrolyzer by multiplying the original profiles by one eighth and one quarter, respectively. The first profile matches the capacity rating of eight of the 1.25 MW electrolyzers, while the second matches four electrolyzers. Finally, NLR experimented with two settings for the electrolyzer power supply minimum and maximum current ramp rates (gain and slew): 200 and 400 amperes per second. The simulated profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wave electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}-{accumulator?}_{number of 1.25 MW electrolyzers connected}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wavePacWave-Noacc_4-400.zip” represents the 25 minute-long experiment using the PacWave’s wave energy converter model, equipped with no accumulator, connected to four 1.25-MW electrolyzers with their power supplies set to a maximum current ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production in kilograms per hour, electrolysis power consumption, and input wave power. An experiment, labeled “characterization_200.zip”, demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30 minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all wave profiles combined into one dataset labeled "combined_wave_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1988

Demixing kinetics of phase separated polymer solutions in microgravity

Phase separated solutions of two neutral polymers in buffer provide a useful and versatile medium for the partition separation of biological cells. However, the efficiency of such separations is orders of magnitude lower than the thermodynamic limit. To test the hypothesis that this inefficiency is at least partially due to the convection and sedimentation that occur during the gravity driven demixing that follows introduction of cells to the systems, a series of experiments were begun aimed at performing cell partition in a low g environment. Demixing of isopycnic three polymer solvent systems was studied, experiments were performed on KC-135 aircraft and one shuttle middeck experiment was completed. Analysis of the results of these experiments and comparisons with the predictions of scaling relations for the dependence of phase domain size on time, derived for a number of possible demixing mechanisms, are presented.

Brooks, D. E.↗