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Irregular Satellites of the Planets

This proposal is directed towards the observational exploration of the irregular satellite systems of the planets. Primarily we use large-format CCD cameras on the world's largest telescopes, on Mauna Kea, to discover new irregular satellites and then to monitor their positions in order to ascertain their orbital characteristics. Separate observations are taken to determine the physical properties of the irregular satellites. The big picture science objective is to determine how these satellites were captures, and to use the properties of the satellites and their orbits to place constraints on early solar system (including formation) processes. Work in the first year has focussed on a major investigation of the Saturn irregular satellite system. We secured observing time on the Subaru and Gemini 8-m diameter telescopes in December 2004, January, February and March 2005 for the conduct of a deep, wide-area survey. This has resulted in the detection and orbit determination for 12 new satellites to be announced in the next week or two. Additional satellites were lost, temporarily, due to unusually poor weather conditions on Mauna Kea. These objects will be recovered and their orbits published next year. A separate survey of the Uranus irregular satellites was published (Sheppard, Jewitt and Kleyna 2005). Away from the telescope, we have discovered the amazing result that the four giant planets possess similar numbers of irregular satellites. This flies in the face of the standard gas-drag model for satellite capture, since only two of the giant planets are gas giants and the others (Uranus and Neptune) formed by a different process and in the absence of much gas. The constancy of the satellite number (each giant holds approximately 100 irregular satellites measured down to the kilometer scale) is either a coincidence, with different capture mechanisms at different planets giving by chance the same total numbers of irregular satellites, or indicates that the satellites were captured by a completely different process. We favor the latter (Jewitt and Sheppard 2005).

Jewitt, David↗

The Lyman-Alpha Forest in the Lensed Quasar Q0957+561 and the Characteristic Dimension of the Absorbing Clouds

Far-ultraviolet spectra of the gravitational lens components Q0957+561 A and 9 were obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope Faint Object Spectrograph (FOS) at five equally spaced epochs, one every two weeks. We confirm the flux variability of the quasar's Lyman-alpha and 0 VI emission lines reported by Dolan et al. (1995) in IUE spectra. The fluxes in these lines vary on a time scale of weeks in the observer's rest frame, independently of each other and of the surrounding continuum. The individual spectra of each image were co-added to investigate the properties of the Lyman-alpha forest along the two lines of sight to the quasar. Absorption lines having equivalent width W > 0.3 A in the observer's frame not previously identified by Michalitsianos et al. (1997) as interstellar lines, metal lines, or higher order Lyman lines were taken to be Ly-alpha forest lines. The existence of each line in this consistently selected set was then verified by its presence in two archival FOS spectra with -1.5 times higher signal to noise than our co-added spectra. Ly-alpha forest lines with W > 0.3 A appear at 41 distinct wavelengths in the spectra of the two images. one absorption line in the spectrum of image A has no counterpart in the spectrum of image B and one line in image B has no counterpart in image A. Based on the separation of the lines of sight over the redshift range searched for Ly-forest lines, the density of the absorbing clouds in the direction of Q0957+561 must change significantly over a distance R = 160 (+120, -70)/ h(sub 50) kpc in the simplified model where the absorbers are treated as spherical clouds and the characteristic dimension, R, is the radius. (We adopt H(sub 0) = 50 h(sub 50) km/s/ kpc, q(sub 0) = 1/2, and lambda = 0 throughout the paper.) The 95% confidence interval on R extends from (50 - 950)/h(sub 50) kpc We show in the Appendix that the fraction of Ly-alpha forest lines that appear in only one spectrum can be expressed as a rapidly converging power series in 1/r, where r the ratio of the radius of the cloud to the separation of the two lines of sight at the redshift of the cloud. This power series can be rewritten to give r in terms of the fraction of Ly-forest wavelengths that appear in the spectrum of only one image. A simple linear approximation to the solution that everywhere agrees with the power series solution to better than 0.8% for r > 2 is derived in the Appendix.

Dolan, Joseph↗

Solar influences on global change

Monitoring of the Sun and the Earth has yielded new knowledge essential to this debate. There is now no doubt that the total radiative energy from the Sun that heats the Earth's surface changes over decadal time scales as a consequence of solar activity. Observations indicate as well that changes in ultraviolet radiation and energetic particles from the Sun, also connected with the solar activity, modulate the layer of ozone that protects the biosphere from the solar ultraviolet radiation. This report reassesses solar influences on global change in the light of this new knowledge of solar and atmospheric variability. Moreover, the report considers climate change to be encompassed within the broader concept of global change; thus the biosphere is recognized to be part of a larger, coupled Earth system. Implementing a program to continuously monitor solar irradiance over the next several decades will provide the opportunity to estimate solar influences on global change, assuming continued maintenance of observations of climate and other potential forcing mechanisms. In the lower atmosphere, an increase in solar radiation is expected to cause global warming. In the stratosphere, however, the two effects produce temperature changes of opposite sign. A monitoring program that would augment long term observations of tropospheric parameters with similar observations of stratospheric parameters could separate these diverse climate perturbations and perhaps isolate a greenhouse footprint of climate change. Monitoring global change in the troposphere is a key element of all facets of the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), not just of the study of solar influences on global change. The need for monitoring the stratosphere is also important for global change research in its own right because of the stratospheric ozone layer.

Source record↗

Wavelets, period-doubling, and time-frequency localization with application to organization of convection over the tropical western Pacific

In this paper, preliminary results in using orthogonal and continuous wavelet transform (WT) to identify period doubling and time-frequency localization in both synthetic and real data are presented. First, the Haar WT is applied to synthetic time series derived from a simple nonlinear dynamical system- a first-order quadratic difference equation. Second, the complex Morlet WT is used to study the time-frequency localization of tropical convection based on a high-resolution Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite infrared (IR) radiance dataset. The Haar WT of the synthetic time series indicates the presence and distinct separation of multiple frequencies in a period-doubling sequence. The period-doubling process generates a multiplicity of intermediate frequencies, which are manifested in the nonuniformity in time with respect to the phase of oscillations in the lower frequencies. Wavelet transform also enables the detection of extremely weak signals in high-order subharmonics resulting from the period-doubling bifurcations. These signals are either undetected or considered statistically insignificant by traditional Fourier analysis. The Morlet WT of the IR radiance dataset indicates the presence of multiple timescales, which are localized in both frequency and time. There are two regimes in the variation of IR radiance, corresponding to the wet and dry periods. Multiple timescales, ranging from semidiurnal, diurnal, synoptic, to intraseasonal with embedding structures, are active in the wet regime. In particular, synoptic variability is more prominent during the wet phase of an intensive intraseasonal cycle. These are not only consistent with, but also show more details than, previous findings by using other techniques. The phase-locking relationships among the oscillations with different time-scales suggest that both synoptic and intraseasonal variations may be mixed oscillations due to the interaction of self-excited oscillations in the tropical atmosphere and external forcings such as annual and diurnal solar radiation variations. Both examples show that WT is a powerful tool for analysis of phenomena involving multiscale interactions that exhibit localization in both frequency and time. A discussion on the caveats in the use of WT in geophysical data analysis is also presented.

Weng, Hengyi↗

Experimental and predicted heating distributions for biconics at incidence in air at Mach 10

Heating distributions were measured on a 1.9-percent-scale model of a generic aeroassisted vehicle proposed for missions to a number of planets and for use as a moderate lift-drag ratio Earth orbital transfer vehicle. This vehicle is spherically blunted, 12.84 deg/7 deg biconic with the fore-cone bent upward 7 deg to provide self-trim capability. A straight biconic with the same nose radius and the same half-angles was also tested. The free-stream Reynolds numbers based on model length were equal to about 2 x 10(5) or 9 x 10 (5). The angle of attack, referenced to the aft-cone, was varied from 0 deg to 20 deg. Heating distributions predicted with a parabolized Navier-Stokes (PNS) code are compared with the measurements for the present Reynolds numbers and range of angles of attack. Leeward heating was greatly affected by Reynolds number, with the heating increasing with decreasing Reynolds number for attached flow (low incidence). The opposite was true for separated flow, which occurred when the fore-cone angle of attack exceeded 0.8 times the fore-cone half-angle. Windward heating distributions were predicted to within 10 percent with the PNS code. Leeward heating distributions were predicted qualitatively for both Reynolds numbers, but quantitative agreement was poorer than on the windward side.

Miller, C. G., III↗

Flood basalt eruptions, comet showers, and mass extinction events

A chronology of initiation dates of the major continental flood basalt episodes has been established from compilation of published K-Ar and Ar-Ar ages of basaltic flows and related basic intrusions. The dating is therefore independent of the biostratigraphic and paleomagnetic time scales, and the estimated errors of the inititation dates are approximately + or - 4 pct. There are 11 distinct episodes of continental flood basalts known during the past 250 Myr. The data show that flood basalt episodes are generally relatively brief geologic events, with intermittent eruptions during peak output periods lasting ony 2 to 3 Myr or less. Statistical analyses suggest that these episodes may have occurred quasi-periodically with a mean cycle time of 32 + or - 1 Myr. The initiation dates of the flood basalts are close to the estimated dates of marine mass extinctions and impact-crater clusters. Although a purely internal forcing might be argued for the flood basalt volcanism, quasi-periodic comet impacts may be the trigger for both the flood basalts and the extinctions. Impact cratering models suggest that large-body impactors lead to deep initial cratering, and therefore may cause mantle disturbances and initiate mantle plume activity. The flood basalt episodes commonly mark the initiation or jump of a mantle hotspot, and are often followed by continental rifting and separation. Evidence from dynamical studies of impacts, occurrences of craters and hotspots, and the geochemistry of boundary layers is synthesized to provide a possible model of impact-generated volcanism. Flood basalt eruptions may themselves have severe effects on climate, and possibly on life. Impacts might, as a result, have led to mass extinctions through direct atmospheric disturbances, and/or indirectly through prolonged flood basalt volcanism.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

Granular Materials and Risks in ISRU

Working with soil, sand, powders, ores, cement and sintered bricks, excavating, grading construction sites, driving off-road, transporting granules in chutes and pipes, sifting gravel, separating solids from gases, and using hoppers are so routine that it seems straightforward to execute these operations on the Moon and Mars as we do on Earth. We discuss how little these processes are understood and point out the nature of trial-and-error practices that are used in today s massive over-design. Nevertheless, such designs have a high failure rate. Implementation and extensive incremental scaling up of industrial processes are routine because of the inadequate predictive tools for design. We present a number of pragmatic scenarios where granular materials play a role, the risks involved, what some of the basic issues are, and what understanding is needed to greatly reduce the risks. This talk will focus on a particular class of granular flow issues, those that pertain to dense materials, their physics, and the failure problems associated with them. In particular, key issues where basic predictability is lacking include stability of soils for the support of vehicles and facilities, ability to control the flow of dense materials (jamming and flooding/unjamming at the wrong time), the ability to predict stress profiles (hence create reliable designs) for containers such as bunkers or silos. In particular, stress fluctuations, which are not accounted for in standard granular design models, can be very large as granular materials flows, and one result is frequent catastrophic failure of granular devices.

Behringer, Robert P.↗

Granular Materials and Risks In ISRU

Working with soil, sand, powders, ores, cement and sintered bricks, excavating, grading construction sites, driving off-road, transporting granules in chutes and pipes, sifting gravel, separating solids from gases, and using hoppers are so routine that it seems straightforward to execute these operations on the Moon and Mars as we do on Earth. We discuss how little these processes are understood and point out the nature of trial-and-error practices that are used in today's massive over-design. Nevertheless, such designs have a high failure rate. Implementation and extensive incremental scaling up of industrial processes are routine because of the inadequate predictive tools for design. We present a number of pragmatic scenarios where granular materials play a role, the risks involved, what some of the basic issues are, and what understanding is needed to greatly reduce the risks. This talk will focus on a particular class of granular flow issues, those that pertain to dense materials, their physics, and the failure problems associated with them. In particular, key issues where basic predictability is lacking include stability of soils for the support of vehicles and facilities, ability to control the flow of dense materials (jamming and flooding/unjamming at the wrong time), the ability to predict stress profiles (hence create reliable designs) for containers such as bunkers or silos. In particular, stress fluctuations, which are not accounted for in standard granular design models, can be very large as granular materials flows, and one result is frequent catastrophic failure of granular devices.

Behringer, Robert P.↗

Display Sharing: An Alternative Paradigm

The current Johnson Space Center (JSC) Mission Control Center (MCC) Video Transport System (VTS) provides flight controllers and management the ability to meld raw video from various sources with telemetry to improve situational awareness. However, maintaining a separate infrastructure for video delivery and integration of video content with data adds significant complexity and cost to the system. When considering alternative architectures for a VTS, the current system's ability to share specific computer displays in their entirety to other locations, such as large projector systems, flight control rooms, and back supporting rooms throughout the facilities and centers must be incorporated into any new architecture. Internet Protocol (IP)-based systems also support video delivery and integration. IP-based systems generally have an advantage in terms of cost and maintainability. Although IP-based systems are versatile, the task of sharing a computer display from one workstation to another can be time consuming for an end-user and inconvenient to administer at a system level. The objective of this paper is to present a prototype display sharing enterprise solution. Display sharing is a system which delivers image sharing across the LAN while simultaneously managing bandwidth, supporting encryption, enabling recovery and resynchronization following a loss of signal, and, minimizing latency. Additional critical elements will include image scaling support, multi -sharing, ease of initial integration and configuration, integration with desktop window managers, collaboration tools, host and recipient controls. This goal of this paper is to summarize the various elements of an IP-based display sharing system that can be used in today's control center environment.

Brown, Michael A.↗

Dual-Polarimetric Radar-Based Tornado Debris Signatures and Paths Associated with Tornadoes Over Northern Alabama During the Historic Outbreak of 27 April 2011

A historic tornado and severe weather outbreak devastated much of the southeastern United States between 25 and 28 April 2011. On 27 April 2011, northern Alabama was particularly hard hit by 40 tornadoes, including 6 that reached EF-4 to EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita damage scale. In northern Alabama alone, there were approximately 100 fatalities and hundreds of people who were injured or lost their homes during the havoc caused by these violent tornadic storms. Many of these tornadoes occurred within range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). A unique capability of dual-polarimetric radar is the near-real time identification of lofted debris associated with ongoing tornadoes. The focus of this paper is to analyze the dual-polarimetric radar-inferred tornado debris signatures in 6 tornadoes in North Alabama on April 27, 2011. Several of these debris signatures were disseminated in real-time to the NWS Huntsville and local media to confirm storm spotter reports, confidence to enhance wording within warnings, and accurately pinpoint the locations of tornadoes for residents downstream of the storm. Also, the debris signature locations were used in post-event storm surveys to help locate areas of damage in regions where damage went unreported, or to help separate tornado tracks that were in close proximity to each other. Furthermore, the relative locations of the debris and damage paths for long track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes will be ascertained by careful comparison of the ARMOR analysis with NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) satellite imagery of the tornado damage scenes and the National Weather Service tornado damage surveys.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

Bi-static Optical Observations of GEO Objects

A bi-static study of objects at Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) was conducted using two ground-based wide-field optical telescopes. The University of Michigan's 0.6-m MODEST (Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope) located at the Cerro Tololo Inter- American Observatory in Chile was employed in a series of coordinated observations with the U.S. Naval Observatory's (USNO) 1.3-m telescope at the USNO Flagstaff Station near Flagstaff, Arizona, USA. The goals of this project are twofold: (1) Obtain optical distances to known and unknown objects at GEO from the difference in the observed topocentric position of objects measured with respect to a reference star frame. The distance can be derived directly from these measurements, and is independent of any orbital solution. The wide geographical separation of these two telescopes means that the parallax difference is larger than ten degrees, and (2) Compare optical photometry in similar filters of GEO objects taken during the same time period from the two sites. The object's illuminated surfaces presented different angles of reflected sunlight to the two telescopes.During a four hour period on the night.of 22 February 2014 (UT), coordinated observations were obtained for eight different GEO positions. Each coordinated observation sequence was started on the hour or half-hour, and was selected to ensure the same cataloged GEO object was available in the field of view of both telescopes during the thirty minute observing sequence. GEO objects were chosen to be both controlled and uncontrolled at a range of orbital inclinations, and the objects were not tracked. Instead both telescopes were operated with all drives off in GEO survey mode to discover un-cataloged objects at GEO. The initial results from this proof-of-concept observing run will be presented, with the intent of laying the foundation for future large-scale bi-static observing campaigns of the GEO regime.

Seitzer, Patrick↗

First-Generation Jet Propulsion Laboratory "Hockey-Puck" Free-Flying Magnetometers for Distributed In-Situ Multiprobe Measurement of Current Density Filamentation in the Northern Auroral Zone: Enstrophy Mission

The sub-orbital rocket mission was a collaborative project between the University of New Hampshire, Cornell University, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to study filamentation phenomena in the northern Auroral zone. The Enstrophy mission test flies the JPL Free-Flying Magnetometer (FFM) concept. The FFM technology development task has been funded by NASA develop miniaturized, low-power, integrated "sensorcrafts". JPL's role was to design, integrate, test, and deliver four FFMs for deployment from the sounding rocket, allowing a unique determination of curl-B. This provides a direct measurement of magnetic-field-aligned current density along the rocket trajectory. A miniaturized three-axis fluxgate magnetometer was integrated with a 4-channel 22-bit sigma-delta Analog to Digital Converter (ADC), four temperature sensors, digital control electronics, seven (Li-SOCl2) batteries, two (4 deg x 170 deg field of view) sun-sensors, a fan-shaped-beam laser diode beacon, a (16 MHz) stable Temperature Compensated Crystal Oscillator (TCXO) clock, Radio Frequency (RF) communication subsystem, and an antenna for approximately 15 minutes of operation where data was collected continuously and transmitted in three (3) bursts (approximately 26 seconds each) to ground station antennas at Poker Flat, Alaska. FFMs were stowed within two trays onboard the rocket during the rocket launch and were released simultaneously using the spinning action of the rocket at approximately 300 km altitude (approximately 100 sec. into the flight). FFMs were deployed with spin rate of approximately 17 Hz and approximately 3 m/sec linear velocity with respect to the rocket. For testing purposes while the rocket was in the launch pad and during flight prior to release of FFMs from the rocket, commands (such as "power on", "test", "flight", "power off', and clock "Reset" signal) were transmitted via a infrared Light Emitting Diode to an infrared detector in the FFM. Special attention was paid to low magnetic signature electronic design and choice of materials in packaging. The miniaturized fluxgate magnetometers had a range of 1-60000 nT with 0.1% full-scale linearity. The frequency range of interest for magnetic measurement was 10 mHz - 50 Hz. Digital data from the magnetometer's three axes were placed in a 4MB Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) in data packages (frames) formatted together with time tags and frame ID. After a specified time was elapsed, the data were Viterbi encoded and transmitted at a rate of 100 kbps (BPSK). Each of the four FFMs transmitted at different frequency. These carrier frequencies were in the range of 2200-2300 MHz. The antenna was a single patch on a high dielectric constant substrate covering one end-plate of the hockey-puck-sized unit. The local clocks aboard the FFMs were reset at the start of the mission and stayed synchronized within 3 msec during the mission. Position of each FFM with respect to the rocket is calculated by the knowledge of its release velocity (measured at exit point of the FFM launcher tract) providing an accuracy of 1 m over the maximum range of 3 km. Spatial and temporal nature of observants can be separated to within 3 m in space or 3 msec time interval.

Javadi, H.↗

Experimental Investigation of Transition to Turbulence as Affected By Passing Wakes

This paper presents experimental results from a study of the effects of periodically passing wakes upon laminar-to-turbulent transition and separation in a low-pressure turbine passage. The test section geometry is designed to simulate unsteady wakes in turbine engines for studying their effects on boundary layers and separated flow regions over the suction surface by using a single suction surface and a single pressure surface to simulate a single turbine blade passage. Single-wire, thermal anemometry techniques are used to measure time-resolved and phase averaged, wall-normal profiles of velocity, turbulence intensity and intermittency at multiple streamwise locations over the turbine airfoil suction surface. These data are compared to steady-state wake-free data collected in the same geometry to identify the effects of wakes upon laminar-to-turbulent transition. Results are presented for flows with a Reynolds number based on suction surface length and stage exit velocity of 50,000 and an approach flow turbulence intensity of 2.5%. While both existing design and experimental data are primarily concerned with higher Reynolds number flows (Re greater than 100,000), recent advances in gas turbine engines, and the accompanying increase in laminar and transitional flow effects, have made low-Re research increasingly important. From the presented data, the effects of passing wakes on transition and separation in the boundary layer, due to both increased turbulence levels and varying streamwise pressure gradients are presented. The results show how the wakes affect transition. The wakes affect the flow by virtue of their difference in turbulence levels and scales from those of the free-stream and by virtue of their ensemble- averaged velocity deficits, relative to the free-stream velocity, and the concomitant changes in angle of attack and temporal pressure gradients. The relationships between the velocity oscillations in the freestream and the unsteady velocity profile shapes in the near-wall flow are described. In this discussion is support for the theory that bypass transition is a response of the near-wall viscous layer to pressure fluctuations imposed upon it from the free-stream flow. Recent transition models are based on that premise. The data also show a significant lag between when the wake is present over the surface and when transition begins.cous layer to pressure fluctuations imposed upon it from the free-stream flow. Recent transition models are based on that premise. The data also show a significant lag between when the wake is present over the surface and when transition begins.cous layer to pressure fluctuations imposed upon it from the free-stream flow. Recent transition models are based on that premise. The data also show a significant lag between when the wake is present over the surface and when transition begins.

Kaszeta, Richard W.↗

Giant Molecular Cloud Structure and Evolution

Bodenheimer and Burkert extended earlier calculations of cloud core models to study collapse and fragmentation. The initial condition for an SPH collapse calculation is the density distribution of a Bonnor-Ebert sphere, with near balance between turbulent plus thermal energy and gravitational energy. The main parameter is the turbulent Mach number. For each Mach number several runs are made, each with a different random realization of the initial turbulent velocity field. The turbulence decays on a dynamical time scale, leading the cloud into collapse. The collapse proceeds isothermally until the density has increased to about 10(exp 13) g cm(exp -3). Then heating is included in the dense regions. The nature of the fragmentation is investigated. About 15 different runs have been performed with Mach numbers ranging from 0.3 to 3.5 (the typical value observed in molecular cloud cores is 0.7). The results show a definite trend of increasing multiplicity with increasing Mach number (M), with the number of fragments approximately proportional to (1 + M). In general, this result agrees with that of Fisher, Klein, and McKee who published three cases with an AMR grid code. However our results show that there is a large spread about this curve. For example, for M=0.3 one case resulted in no fragmentation while a second produced three fragments. Thus it is not only the value of M but also the details of the superposition of the various velocity modes that play a critical role in the formation of binaries. Also, the simulations produce a wide range of separations (10-1000 AU) for the multiple systems, in rough agreement with observations. These results are discussed in two conference proceedings.

Hollenbach, David↗

AERACEPT (AErosol Rapid Analysis Combined Entry Probe/sonde Technology) for the Nephele Venus Cloud Mission Concept

Nephele is a small atmospheric probe mission concept to determine whether the Venus clouds contain organic matter. Nephele complements larger missions that seek to conduct Venus atmospheric analyses, such as DAVINCI, Venera-D, and the Morning Star missions, by directly sampling and analyzing cloud and haze particles. AERACEPT is an aerosol sampling technology designed to minimize the mass, volume, and complexity required for in situ planetary atmosphere characterization. A single aeroshell functions as a combined entry vehicle, descent probe, and instrumented sonde, combining recent advances in thermal protection materials with heritage technology from planetary and airborne science. The velocity of descent drives aerosol through inlets embedded in the aeroshell’s thermal protection material; inertial separation isolates the particles from the gas stream; and the particle capture surface doubles as the analysis substrate. This method can work without heat shield separation, descent control, or active sample handling; these advantages trade against a smaller sample volume, higher risk of sample heating, and shorter time for analysis and data return. AERACEPT further benefits from modeling of the internal and external flow to understand the particle capture efficiency and bias for size and concentration distributions. AERACEPT is well suited for a Venus mission such as Nephele, where a passive descent trajectory is both subsonic over the altitudes of interest and provides sufficient velocity and pressure differential for the particle sizes of interest. A thermal and flow toolchain developed in-house (Traj→ DPLR→ PATO→ openFOAM) was used to model an 80-cm aeroshell with science operations 63–39 km. These models indicate that AERACEPT will provide ~24 µL accumulated sample of particles ≥ 0.2 µm, substantially above the 2 µL threshold requirement. The worst-case particle heating will be ~14 K above ambient, for the smallest particles at the lowest altitude; most particles will experience ≤ 1 K rise, at which almost all analytes of interest will be unaffected. Plasma jet testing of a small-scale aeroshell-material inlet was recently conducted to validate the thermal model parameters; wind tunnel testing to validate the flow model parameters is underway.

AERACEPT↗

Geoeffectiveness (D (sub st) and K (sub p)) of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1995-2009 and Implications for Storm Forecasting

We summarize the geoeffectiveness (based on the Dst and Kp indices) of the more than 300 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that passed the Earth during 1996-2009, encompassing solar cycle 23. We subsequently estimate the probability that an ICME will generate geomagnetic activity that exceeds certain thresholds of Dst or Kp, including the NOAA "G" storm scale, based on maximum values of the southward magnetic field component (Bs), the solar wind speed (V), and the y component (Ey) of the solar wind convective electric field E = -V x B, in the ICME or sheath ahead of the ICME. Consistent with previous studies, the geoeffectiveness of an ICME is correlated with Bs or Ey approx.= VBs in the ICME or sheath, indicating that observations from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth are likely to provide the most reliable forecasts of the activity associated with an approaching ICME. There is also a general increase in geoeffectiveness with ICME speed, though the overall event-to-event correlation is weaker than for Bs and Ey. Nevertheless, using these results, we suggest that the speed of an ICME approaching the Earth inferred, for example, from routine remote sensing by coronagraphs on spacecraft well separated from the Earth or by all-sky imagers, could be used to estimate the likely geoeffectiveness of the ICME (our "comprehensive" ICME database provides a proxy for ICMEs identified in this way) with a longer lead time than may be possible using an upstream monitor

Richardson, I. G.↗

A First Look at the Upcoming SISO Space Reference FOM

Spaceflight is difficult, dangerous and expensive; human spaceflight even more so. In order to mitigate some of the danger and expense, professionals in the space domain have relied, and continue to rely, on computer simulation. Simulation is used at every level including concept, design, analysis, construction, testing, training and ultimately flight. As space systems have grown more complex, new simulation technologies have been developed, adopted and applied. Distributed simulation is one those technologies. Distributed simulation provides a base technology for segmenting these complex space systems into smaller, and usually simpler, component systems or subsystems. This segmentation also supports the separation of responsibilities between participating organizations. This segmentation is particularly useful for complex space systems like the International Space Station (ISS), which is composed of many elements from many nations along with visiting vehicles from many nations. This is likely to be the case for future human space exploration activities. Over the years, a number of distributed simulations have been built within the space domain. While many use the High Level Architecture (HLA) to provide the infrastructure for interoperability, HLA without a Federation Object Model (FOM) is insufficient by itself to insure interoperability. As a result, the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO) is developing a Space Reference FOM. The Space Reference FOM Product Development Group is composed of members from several countries. They contribute experiences from projects within NASA, ESA and other organizations and represent government, academia and industry. The initial version of the Space Reference FOM is focusing on time and space and will provide the following: (i) a flexible positioning system using reference frames for arbitrary bodies in space, (ii) a naming conventions for well-known reference frames, (iii) definitions of common time scales, (iv) federation agreements for common types of time management with focus on time stepped simulation, and (v) support for physical entities, such as space vehicles and astronauts. The Space Reference FOM is expected to make collaboration politically, contractually and technically easier. It is also expected to make collaboration easier to manage and extend.

Mueller, Bjorn↗

UV Spectral Variability and the Lyman-Alpha Forest in the Lensed Quasar Q0957+561

Far-ultraviolet spectra of the gravitational lens components Q0957+561 A and B were obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope Faint Object Spectrograph (FOS) at five equally spaced epochs, one every two weeks. We confirm the flux variability of the quasar's Lyman-alpha and O VI lambda 1037 emission lines reported in IUE (International Ultraviolet Explorer) spectra. The fluxes in these lines vary on a time scale of weeks in the local rest frame (LRF), independently of each other and of the surrounding continuum. The individual spectra of each image were co-added to investigate the properties of the Lyman-alpha forest along the two lines of sight to the quasar. Absorption lines having equivalent width W (sub lambda) greater than or equal to 0.3 Angstroms in the LRF not previously identified as interstellar lines, metal lines, or higher order Lyman lines were taken to be LY-alpha forest lines. The existence of each line in this consistently selected set was then verified by its presence in two archival FOS spectra with approx. 1.5 times higher signal to noise than our co-added spectra. Ly-alpha forest lines with W (sub lambda) greater than or equal to 0.3 Angstroms appear at 42 distinct wavelengths in the spectra of the two images. Two absorption lines in the spectrum of image A have no counterpart at that wavelength in the spectrum of image B, and two lines in image B have no counterpart in image A. Based on the separation of the lines of sight at the redshift of the absorption lines appearing in only one spectrum, the density of the absorbing clouds in the direction of Q0957+561 must change significantly over a distance of 79 (+34, -26) h (sub 50) (sup -1) kpc in the simplified model where the absorbers are treated as spherical clouds and the characteristic dimension is the radius. (We adopt H (sub 0)= 50 h (sub 50) km s (sup -1) kpc (sup -1), q (sub 0) = 1/2, and LAMBDA = 0 throughout the paper.) The two limits define the 68% confidence interval on the characteristic dimension, equivalent to the 1 sigma confidence interval for a Gaussian distribution. The 95% confidence interval extends from (32 - 250) h (sub 50) (sup -1) kpc. We show in the Appendix that the fraction of Ly-alpha forest lines that appear in only one spectrum can be expressed as a rapidly converging power series in 1/r, where r the ratio of the radius of the cloud to the separation of the two LOS at the redshift of the cloud. This power series can be rewritten to give r in terms of the fraction of Ly-alpha forest wavelengths that appear in the spectrum of only one image. A simple linear approximation to the solution which everywhere agrees with the power series solution to better than 0.8% for r greater than or equal to 2 is derived in the Appendix.

Dolan, J. F.↗