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DOE OSTI2023

Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems

The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.

joint modeling↗

NASA NTRS1981

Computing aerodynamic sound using advanced statistical turbulence theories

It is noted that the calculation of turbulence-generated aerodynamic sound requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal variation of Q sub ij (xi sub k, tau), the two-point, two-time turbulent velocity correlations. A technique is presented to obtain an approximate form of these correlations based on closure of the Reynolds stress equations by modeling of higher order terms. The governing equations for Q sub ij are first developed for a general flow. The case of homogeneous, stationary turbulence in a unidirectional constant shear mean flow is then assumed. The required closure form for Q sub ij is selected which is capable of qualitatively reproducing experimentally observed behavior. This form contains separation time dependent scale factors as parameters and depends explicitly on spatial separation. The approximate forms of Q sub ij are used in the differential equations and integral moments are taken over the spatial domain. The velocity correlations are used in the Lighthill theory of aerodynamic sound by assuming normal joint probability.

Hecht, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Relating Nimbus-7 37 GHz data to global land-surface evaporation, primary productivity and the atmospheric CO2 concentration

Global observations at 37 GHz by the Nimbus-7 SMMR are related to zonal variations of land surface evaporation and primary productivity, as well as to temporal variations of atmospheric CO2 concentration. The temporal variation of CO2 concentration and the zonal variations of evaporation and primary productivity are shown to be highly correlated with the satellite sensor data. The potential usefulness of the 37-GHz data for global biospheric and climate studies is noted.

Choudhury, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Interpretation of combined wind profiler and aircraft-measured tropospheric winds and clear air turbulence

In the first experiment, it was found that wind profilers are far better suited for the detailed examination of jet stream structure than are weather balloons. The combination of good vertical resolution with not previously obtained temporal resolution reveals structural details not seen before. Development of probability-derived shear values appears possible. A good correlation between pilot reports of turbulence and wind shear was found. In the second experiment, hourly measurements of wind speed and direction obtained using two wind profiling Doppler radars during two prolonged jet stream occurrences over western Pennsylvania were analyzed. In particular, the time-variant characteristics of derived shear profiles were examined. Profiler data dropouts were studied in an attempt to determine possible reasons for the apparently reduced performance of profiling radar operating beneath a jet stream. Richardson number and wind shear statistics were examined along with pilot reports of turbulence in the vicinity of the profiler.

Thomson, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Need for expanded environmental measurement capabilities in geosynchronous Earth orbit

The proliferation of environmental satellites in low altitude earth orbit (LEO) has demonstrated the usefulness of earth remote sensing from space. As use of the technology grows, the limitations of LEO missions become more apparent. Many inadequacies can be met by remote sensing from geosynchronous earth orbits (GEO) that can provide high temporal resolution, consistent viewing of specific earth targets, long sensing dwell times with varying sun angles, stereoscopic coverage, and correlative measurements with ground and LEO observations. An environmental platform in GEO is being studied by NASA. Small research satellite missions in GEO were studied (1990) at GSFC. Some recent independent assessments of NASA Earth Science Programs recommend accelerating the earlier deployment of smaller missions.

Mercanti, Enrico P.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Need for expanded environmental measurement capabilities in geosynchronous earth orbit

Mercanti, Enrico P.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Long-Term Space Astrophysics Program

This is the final report for our Long-Term Space Astrophysics Program (NRA 94-OSS-12) grant NAG 5-3225. The proposal is entitled 'Spectral and Temporal Properties of Black Hole Candidates', and began funding in May 1995, and ran through 31 Aug 2000. The project summary from the original proposal was as follows: 'We will study the spectral and temporal properties of black hole candidates (BHC) by using data from archival sources (e.g., EXOSAT, Ginga, ROSAT) and proposed follow-up observations with modern instruments (e.g., ASCA, XTE). Our spectral studies will focus on identifying the basic characteristics and luminosities of the emission components in the various 'states' of BHC. We hope to understand and quantify the global energetics of these states. Our temporal studies will focus on expanding and classifying our knowledge of BHC variability properties in each state. We will explore the nature of quasi-periodic oscillations in BHC. We will combine our spectral and temporal studies by analyzing time lags and variability coherence between energy channels. In addition, we will investigate ways of correlating observed variability behavior with specific emission components.' We have accomplished many of these goals laid out within the original proposal. As originally proposed, we have utilized both archival and proprietary satellite data. In terms of archival data, we have utilized data from the Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA), ROSAT, and the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). We also obtained proprietary data from ASCA, RXTE, and the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). In terms of sources, we have examined a wide variety of both galactic black hole candidates and extra-galactic black holes. For the galactic black holes we have observed and analyzed both the low/hard state and the high/soft state. We have performed both spectral and timing analyses on all of these objects. In addition, we have also examined a number of neutron stars or potential neutron stars. All of our research on the above mentioned objects has resulted in one or more publications in peer-reviewed journals. Attached is a list of refereed publications of research results which have been funded by this grant over approximately the past five and a half years. In addition, we have included a list of conference proceedings and other similar reports that have been associated with this grant.

Nowark, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Application of Thermal Loads to a Numerical Model

A detailed aerothermal model requires the application of the heat flux profile over all exposed aerodynamic surfaces. These loads are created using both engineering methods (e.g., FORTRAN codes implementing correlations) and CFD simulations (e.g., solutions to Navier-Stokes equations). The goal is to define the spatial and temporal dependency of the heat flux upon the model.

cfd↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding and Utilizing PBL Height Data from Multiple Observing Systems in the GEOS System

The accuracy of PBL height simulation is a key issue in many applications including forecasting near surface meteorology and air quality, however, it is a very challenging problem due to the lack of not only comprehensive, global Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) observations but also a strategy and infrastructure to utilize PBL height data from a variety of sensors. Following the designation of PBL as an incubation class observable in the 2017 Decadal Survey, the PBL Incubation Study Team Report [14] made clear that “a future global PBL observing system requires modeling and data assimilation as essential components.” There is an urgent need for global modeling development in order to utilize Program of Record (POR) observations, assess their impacts, and identify gaps to be filled by future PBL missions. Our overall objective is to develop PBL data assimilation capabilities in the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS), focusing on PBL height from multiple observing systems, to support the assessment and use of future PBL observations. The NASA GEOS system is composed of the GEOS global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The PBL parameterizations include the “Lock” K-profile scheme driven by surface and cloud-top buoyancy fluxes ([4]), and the “Louis” local scheme for stable conditions based on the Richardson number ([5]). Above the mixed layer defined by the Lock surface plume, shallow cumulus convection is represented by the mass flux scheme of [9]. Additional parameterizations are summarized in [1]. The ADAS employs the hybrid 4D Ensemble- Variational (EnVar) configuration ([15]), with the ensemble providing flow-dependent background error covariance information. The resultant analysis increments are fed back to the forecast model through the 4D incremental analysis update (IAU) approach ([11]). In this study, PBL height data are being or have been generated from radiosondes, GNSS RO, satellite (CATS, CALIPSO and ICESat-2) and ground-based (MPLNET) lidars, and wind profiler. Investigations have been conducted to specify quality marks for PBL height retrievals for the data assimilation purpose. These PBL height data have different strengths and weaknesses ([2], [3], [6], [7], [8], [10]), and the satellite PBL height data provide better global coverage and complement in-situ PBL height data. Radiosondes offer high accuracy and in situ measurement of temperature and humidity profiles, but with poor spatio-temporal sampling. The in-situ observing systems like MPLNET and wind profiler provide long history of PBL height records at each station. The GNSS RO based PBL height is retrieved based on the sharp gradients in refractivity profile that represent the fine vertical structure of temperature and moisture changes above the PBL. However, not all RO refractivity profiles reach the surface depending on location and regime, and RO refractivity retrievals can be negatively biased below 2km. The PBL height data from satellite lidars provide high resolution along track PBL height retrievals, but over land they are affected by previous day convective PBL aerosol and strongly associated with mixing layer and retrievals cannot be made below thick, attenuating clouds. A successful assimilation of PBL height data requires a thorough understanding of the observing method and the retrieval algorithm for each observing system in order to use the PBL height data from multiple observing systems properly. Due to the sensitivity of PBL height data to the observing method and choice of algorithm, it is important to use a model definition appropriate for each observation type to compute differences between PBL height data and model PBL height (OmFs). The GEOS model currently includes two PBL height definitions suitable for direct comparison with observed PBL height, and additional definitions are being added in this study. Evaluation of different model PBL height definitions is underway. Meanwhile, efforts have been made in the GEOS data assimilation system to develop PBL height data assimilation capability. PBL height data can be assimilated using two different approaches. The traditional approach is to construct an observation operator and its tangent linear and adjoint, which link control variables to PBL height data from each observing system. This observation operator can be very complicated, e.g., the lidar-based PBL height observation operator includes the backscatter lidar forward observation operator, the algorithm to derive PBL height from attenuated total backscatter, interpolation, and calculations handling the mismatch between observed and model scales. The other approach is to augment PBL height to the control variable vector, and it is adopted in this study. The latter approach was also used in previous studies, e.g., the assimilation of PBL height data from radiosonde and aircraft in the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system for a dispersion modelling study ([13]); the PBL height assimilation study using lidar PBL height data at Greensburg, Kansas for a field campaign ([12]). The PBL height assimilation from multiple observing systems in this study allows us to take advantage of the diverse PBL height data that provide much better global coverage collectively under different meteorological conditions and with different temporal and spatial scales. As all the PBL heights are tightly coupled with the PBL thermodynamic variables, the strong correlations, which are provided by the 4D ensemble forecast, enable PBL height data from various sources to interact and combine coherently and provide additional information for PBL temperature and moisture fields. The results of comparisons among PBL height data from different sources and the evaluation of the model PBL height definitions with the PBL height data will be presented, and the PBL height data synergy strategies and preliminary results will also be discussed at the conference.

Y. Zhu↗

DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal dynamics of core fungi in the switchgrass phyllosphere, and co-occurrence with leaf bacteria

Plant leaves harbor complex microbial communities that influence plant health and productivity. Nevertheless, a detailed understanding of phyllosphere community assembly and drivers is needed, particularly for phyllosphere fungi. Here, we investigated seasonal dynamics of epiphytic phyllosphere fungal communities in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.), a focal bioenergy crop. We also leverage previously published data on switchgrass phyllosphere bacterial communities from the same experimental plants, allowing us to compare fungal and bacterial dynamics and explore inter-Domain network associations in the switchgrass phyllosphere. Overall, we found a strong impact of sampling date on fungal community composition, with multiple taxonomic levels exhibiting clear temporal patterns in relative abundance. In addition, leaf nitrogen concentration, leaf dry matter content, plant height, and minimum daily air temperature explained significant variation in phyllosphere fungal communities, likely due to their correlation with sampling date. Finally, among the core taxa, fungal-bacterial network associations were much more common than bacteria-bacteria associations, suggesting the importance of inter-Domain phylogenetic diversity in microbiome assembly. Although our findings highlight the complexity of phyllosphere microbiome assembly, the clear temporal patterns in lineage-specific fungal abundances give promise to the potential for accurately predicting shifts in fungal phyllosphere communities throughout the growing season, a key research priority for sustainable agriculture.

16S rRNA↗

NASA NTRS2010

Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flashes (TGFs) Observed with the Fermi-Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor: The First Hundred TGFs

The Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope Observatory (Fermi) is now detecting ~2.1 TGFs per week. At this rate, nearly a hundred TGFs will have been detected by the time of this Meeting. This rate has increased by a factor of ~8 since new flight software was uploaded to the spacecraft in November 2009 in order to increase the sensitivity of GBM to TGFs. The high time resolution (2 microseconds) allows temporal features to be resolved so that some insight may be gained on the origin and transport of the gamma-ray photons through the atmosphere. The absolute time of the TGFs, known to several microseconds, also allows accurate correlations of TGFs with lightning networks and other lightning-related phenomena. The thick bismuth germanate (BGO) scintillation detectors of the GBM system have observed photon energies from TGFs at energies above 40 MeV. New results on the some temporal aspects of TGFs will be presented.

Fishman, G J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) Observed with the Fermi-Gamma-ray Burst Monitor: Temporal and Spectral Properties

The Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope Observatory (Fermi) was detecting ~2.1 TGFs per week. This rate has increased by a factor of ~8 since new flight software was uploaded to the spacecraft in November 2009 in order to increase the sensitivity of GBM to TGFs. Further upgrades to Fermi-GBM to allow observations of weaker TGFs are in progress. The high time resolution (2 s) allows temporal features to be resolved so that some insight may be gained on the origin and transport of the gamma-ray photons through the atmosphere. The absolute time of the TGFs, known to several microseconds, also allows accurate correlations of TGFs with lightning networks and other lightning-related phenomena. The thick bismuth germanate (BGO) scintillation detectors of the GBM system have observed photon energies from TGFs at energies above 40 MeV. New results on the some temporal aspects of TGFs will be presented along with spectral characteristics and properties of several electron-positron TGF events that have been identified.

Fishman, G. J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatial and temporal prediction of radiation dose rates near Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

In this paper, we have developed a methodology to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of radiation air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). In our exploratory data analysis, we found that (1) the temporal evolution of dose rates is composed of a log-linear decay trend and fluctuations of air dose rates that are spatially correlated among adjacent monitoring posts; and (2) the slope of the log-linear environmental decay trend can be represented as a function of the apparent initial dose rates, coordinate position, land-use type, and soil type. From these observations, we first estimated the log-linear decay trend at each location based on these predictors, using the random forest method. We then developed a modified Kalman filter coupled with a Gaussian process model to estimate the dose-rate time series at a given location and time. We applied this method to the Fukushima evacuation zone (as of March 2017), which included 17 monitoring post locations (with monitoring datasets collected between 2014 and 2018) and generated a time series of dose-rate maps. Our results show that this approach allows us to produce accurate spatial and temporal predictions of radiation dose-rate maps using limited spatiotemporal measurements.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS2020

“It’s Raining Bits”: Patterns in Directional Precipitation Persistence Across the United States

The spatial and temporal ordering of precipitation occurrence impacts ecosystems, streamflow, and water availability. For example, both large-scale climate patterns and local landscapes drive weather events, and the typical speeds and directions of these events moving across a basin dictate the timing of flows at its outlet. We address the predictability of precipitation occurrence at a given location, based on the knowledge of past precipitation at surrounding locations. We identify ‘‘dominant directions of precipitation influence’’ across the continental United States based on a gridded daily dataset. Specifically, we apply information theory–based measures that characterize dominant directions and strengths of spatial and temporal precipitation dependencies. On a national average, this dominant direction agrees with the prevalent direction of weather movement from west to east across the country, but regional differences reflect topographic divides, precipitation gradients, and different climatic drivers of precipitation. Trends in these information relationships and their correlations with climate indices over the past 70 years also show seasonal and spatial divides. This study expands upon a framework of information-based predictability to answer questions about spatial connectivity in addition to temporal persistence. The methods presented here are generally useful to understand many aspects of weather and climate variability.

North America↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implications of increased spatial and trophic overlap between juvenile Pacific salmon and Sablefish in the northern California Current

Abstract Objective The study was designed to assess long-term variability in the distribution of juvenile Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and Sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria. The study also evaluated whether Sablefish and Pacific salmon shared food resources and looked to characterize Sablefish during an understudied period of their life cycle. Methods To meet the objectives, the study used data from 26 years of surface trawls conducted in Oregon and Washington coastal waters (1998–2023). Spatial–temporal models were used to measure changes in abundance and distribution of Pacific salmon and Sablefish along with covariates of ocean temperature. The study evaluated trophic characteristics of Pacific salmon and Sablefish from 2020 for differences. The temporal variation in size and diets of Sablefish were also analyzed, along with energy density of fish caught in 2020. Result The spatial–temporal model demonstrated that there has been a nearshore expansion of juvenile Sablefish over the past 26 years that was correlated with increased ocean temperature. The nearshore expansion of Sablefish resulted in increased spatial and trophic overlap with juvenile Pacific salmon. While feeding in nearshore waters, juvenile Sablefish demonstrated competitive feeding advantages over juvenile Pacific salmon during a critical phase of salmonid early marine life history. Juvenile Sablefish exhibited significant ontogenetic diet and energetic shifts, and even the smallest (68–80 mm fork length) were piscivorous. Conclusions If juvenile Sablefish numbers continue to increase relative to Pacific salmon, they could exert more competitive pressure, especially if food resources become limited. Pacific salmon may experience adverse effects from competition, regardless of whether or not juvenile Sablefish, which have recently expanded into nearshore waters, successfully recruit to the adult population.

Daly, Elizabeth A. (ORCID:0000000195334457)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble cure kinetics network (ECK-Net): A method to derive cure kinetics of thermosetting resin

This paper introduces an Ensemble Cure Kinetics Network (ECK-Net), a neural network (NN)–based framework for modeling the cure kinetics of thermosetting resins within a phenomenological context. ECK-Net replaces traditional analytic models, which require extensive chemical insight and multiple isothermal/non-isothermal experiments, with a data-driven surrogate that maps nonlinear relationships between temperature, degree of cure, and reaction rate from differential scanning calorimetry data. The proposed approach predicts input-dependent kinetic coefficients of a generalized nth-order reaction equation rather than reaction rates directly, enabling a single unified model to represent various epoxy systems without relying on iso-conversional analysis or predefined functional forms. To ensure robustness, multiple independently trained networks under different random initializations are blended through an ensemble strategy, effectively mitigating the stochastic variability inherent to neural networks. The framework is validated using experimental datasets from multiple resin systems, including aerospace-grade materials (Toray 3900-2, Cycom 5320-1, and Hexcel 8552) and a windmill-grade resin (RIMR 035c). The model accurately reproduces the temporal evolution of the degree of cure under manufacturers’ recommended cure cycles across all tested resins systems, yielding Pearson’s correlation coefficients of 0.992, 0.994, 0.993, 0.997, respectively. To demonstrate process-level applicability, the trained network was implemented within the Abaqus environment to simulate out-of-autoclave (OOA) curing process of the CFRP panel composed of Toray T830H-6K/3900-2D prepreg. The simulation results showed excellent agreement with experimental temperature response (maximum peak temperature, simulation: 189.6 °C, experiment: 188.5 °C) and the final degree of cure (simulation: 0.948, experiment: 0.960 ± 0.013), confirming ECK-Net’s capability as a reliable alternative to conventional cure kinetics modeling methods.

Composite curing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Unraveling plant phenotype to genotype associations with daily hyperspectral traits in Populus trichocarpa

Hyperspectral remote sensing is a powerful, high-throughput phenotyping tool that quantifies physiologically and structurally relevant wavelengths across diverse genotypes and over varying temporal scales. In this study, we combined tower-based continuous hyperspectral sensing with genome-wide association studies to analyze 1423 wavebands (400-900 nm) and derivative vegetation indices across 505 genotypes and the genetic architecture of hyperspectral phenotypes over time in Populus trichocarpa Torr. & Gray grown under field conditions. Wavelengths related to chlorophyll and carotenoid absorption spectra exhibited the strongest genetic variation resulting in 98 significant SNP associations. Notably, we found substantial overlap in genetic association between the blue and red spectral regions, indicative of carotenoids and chlorophyll, respectively, and identified more than 10 candidate genes associated with chloroplast function, underpinning photosynthetic activity. Furthermore, fluctuations in associations for vegetative indices, such as the chlorophyll:carotenoid index (CCI), across the growing season reveal a temporally dynamic genetic architecture of physiological traits associated with fall senescence of this temperate tree species. Finally, we also observed correlations (spearman rho = 0.3, p < 1x10 −8 ) between individual wavebands or vegetative indices and growth rate, assessed as the relative change of tree height over the growing season. The growth rate prediction was substantially improved by a regularization multivariate model (spearman rho>0.5, p < 1x10 −16 ), reinforcing the value of hyperspectral measurements for predicting traits linked to tree productivity. These findings highlight the potential of high-throughput, rapid, hyperspectral genome wide association studies GWAS to uncover physiologically meaningful genetic variation and offer promising insights for future acceleration for plant breeding.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1983

Solar wind deceleration and MHD turbulence in the earth's foreshock region - ISEE 1 and 2 and IMP 8 observations

The interaction of the solar wind with ions backstreaming from the earth's bow shock is investigated using plasma and magnetic field measurements on ISEE 1 and 2 and IMP 8 at widely separated positions in the earth's foreshock. This technique separates temporal and spatial variations within the foreshock. It is found that the solar wind acceleration associated with backstreaming ions is correlated with the amplitude of the MHD turbulence, and that the largest decelerations are seen close to the bow shock. The density of the backstreaming ion beam is strongly correlated with distance from the shock, and decreases by about a factor of three in a distance of about 3R(e).

Bonifazi, C.↗