High-Fidelity and Reduced-Order Models of Contacting Structures.
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A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)
Here, coarsening of bicontinuous microstructures is observed in a variety of systems, such as nanoporous metals and mixtures that have undergone spinodal decomposition. To better understand the morphological evolution of these structures during coarsening, we compare the morphologies resulting from two different coarsening mechanisms, surface and bulk diffusion. We perform phase-field simulations of coarsening via each mechanism in a two-phase mixture at nominal volume fractions of 50%-50% and 36%-64%, and the simulated structures are characterized in terms of topology (genus density), the interfacial shape distribution, structure factor, and autocorrelations of phase and mean curvature. We observe self-similar evolution of morphology and topology and agreement with the expected power laws for dynamic scaling, in which the characteristic length scale increases over time proportionally to t 1/4 for surface diffusion and t 1/3 for bulk diffusion. While we observe the expected difference in the coarsening kinetics, we find that differences in self-similar morphology due to coarsening mechanism are relatively small, although typically they are larger at 36% volume fraction than at 50% volume fraction. In particular, we find that bicontinuous structures coarsened via surface diffusion have lower scaled genus densities than structures coarsened via bulk diffusion. We also compare the self-similar morphologies to those in literature and to two model bicontinuous structures, namely, constant-mean-curvature surfaces based on the Schoen G minimal surface and random leveled-wave structures. The average scaled mean curvatures of these model structures agree reasonably with those of the coarsened structures at both 36% and 50%, but we find substantial disagreements in the scaled genus densities and the standard deviations of mean curvature.
Cryogenic electron microscopy is widely used in structural biology, but its resolution is often limited by the dynamics of the macromolecule. Here, we developed a refinement protocol based on Gaussian mixture models that integrates particle orientation and conformation estimation, and improves the alignment for flexible domains of protein structures. We demonstrated this protocol on multiple datasets, resulting in improved resolution and resolvability, locally and globally, by visual and quantitative measures.
For the past 50 years, researchers have sought molecular models that can accurately reproduce water’s microscopic structure and thermophysical properties across broad ranges of its complex phase diagram. Herein, molecular dynamics simulations with the many-body MB-pol model are performed to monitor the thermodynamic response functions and local structure of liquid water from the boiling point down to deeply supercooled temperatures at ambient pressure. The isothermal compressibility and isobaric heat capacity show maxima near 223 K, in excellent agreement with recent experiments, and the liquid density exhibits a minimum at ~208 K. A local tetrahedral arrangement, where each water molecule accepts and donates two hydrogen bonds, is found to be the most probable hydrogen-bonding topology at all temperatures. Further, this work suggests that MB-pol may provide predictive capability for studies of liquid water’s physical properties across broad ranges of thermodynamic states, including the so-called water’s “no man’s land” which is difficult to probe experimentally.
To achieve a desired microstructure and minimize the thickness variation in rolled foils, researchers must understand the effects of foil fabrication process variables on microstructure evolution. We developed an integrated simulation of deformation and recrystallization that employs the finite element method (FEM) and the kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) Potts model, respectively, to investigate microstructure evolution during multiple-pass hot rolling and heat treatment in polycrystalline U-10Mo fuel. Scanning electron microscopy and electron backscatter diffraction images of microstructures were directly used as input in FEM calculation of deformation, and the calculated strains were used to determine the driving force of nucleation and growth of recrystallized grains in the Potts model. Grain structures predicted by the Potts model were used to update the grain structure and material properties for FEM. Simulation alternated between FEM and the Potts model to simulate grain structure evolution during multiple rolling and heat treatments. The initial model parameters were determined by benchmarking the recrystallization kinetics against experimental data. Then, the model was applied to predict the grain structure evolution. Results showed that our model can capture the coupling between deformation and recrystallization and can quantitatively reproduce the observed U-10Mo recrystallization and grain growth kinetics. The simulation results demonstrated that the developed model can predict U-10Mo grain structures as a function of initial microstructure and foil fabrication parameters.
Degradation pathway models constructed using network structural equation modeling (netSEM) are used to study degradation modes and pathways active in photovoltaic (PV) system variants in exposure conditions of high humidity and temperature. This data-driven modeling technique enables the exploration of simultaneous pairwise and multiple regression relationships between variables in which several degradation modes are active in specific variants and exposure conditions. Durable and degrading variants are identified from the netSEM degradation mechanisms and pathways, along with potential ways to mitigate these pathways. A combination of domain knowledge and netSEM modeling shows that corrosion is the primary cause of the power loss in these glass/backsheet PV minimodules. We show successful implementation of netSEM to elucidate the relationships between variables in PV systems and predict a specific service lifetime. The results from pairwise relationships and multiple regression show consistency. This work presents a greater opportunity to be expanded to other materials systems.
Afforestation is recommended as an effective approach for carbon sequestration and environmental benefits. However, it remains less clear, and sometimes controversial, regarding how afforestation may impact soil inorganic carbon (SIC), a crucial component of the ecosystem carbon pool. Here, using field data from 619 afforested plots and 163 control plots across northern China, we investigated the relative and absolute differences in SIC between afforested and corresponding control plots. Our results suggested that afforestation increased SIC in acidic soils, while decreased SIC in alkaline soils. Fitting a linear mixed model and further a structure equation model, we found that afforestation-induced soil pH change was the most significant factor regulating SIC responses. In particular, SIC was more sensitive to pH change in more arid areas, where both soil pH and SIC stocks were high. Other factors could indirectly affect SIC responses to afforestation through modulating soil pH and soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Moreover, afforestation-induced SIC changes also varied considerably among different species of tree plantations and across different soil depths. Importantly, in plantations of Pinus sylvestris var. mongholica, Pinus tabuliformis, and Populus spp., changes in SIC caused by afforestation were even comparable to that in SOC. Overall, our findings provide a data-based understanding on the comprehensive soil carbon dynamics following afforestation and its underlying mechanisms. With the increased use of afforestation and reforestation as nature-based solutions to climate change, their associated impacts on SIC need to be taken into account, especially in SIC-rich areas.
This work presents a block-structured formulation of Operator Inference as a way to learn structured reduced-order models for multiphysics systems. The approach specifies the governing equation structure for each physics component and the structure of the coupling terms. Once the multiphysics structure is specified, the reduced-order model is learned from snapshot data following the nonintrusive Operator Inference methodology. In addition to preserving physical system structure, which in turn permits preservation of system properties such as stability and second-order structure, the block-structured approach has the advantages of reducing the overall dimensionality of the learning problem and admitting tailored regularization for each physics component. The numerical advantages of the block-structured formulation over a monolithic Operator Inference formulation are demonstrated for aeroelastic analysis, which couples aerodynamic and structural models. For the benchmark test case of the AGARD 445.6 wing, block-structured Operator Inference provides an average 20% online prediction speedup over monolithic Operator Inference across subsonic and supersonic flow conditions in both the stable and fluttering parameter regimes while preserving the accuracy achieved with monolithic Operator Inference.
The structural evolution of oxides in dispersion-strengthened superalloys during laser-powder bed fusion is considered in detail. Alloy chemistry and process parameter effects on oxide structure are assessed through a parameter study on the model alloy Ni-20Cr, doped with varying concentrations of Y 2 O 3 and Al. Small angle neutron scattering measurements of the dispersoid size distribution show the dispersoid size increases with higher laser power, slower scan speed, and increasing Y 2 O 3 and Al content. Complementary electron microscopy measurements reveal reactions between Y 2 O 3 and Al, even in nanoscale dispersoids, and the presence of micron-scale oxide slag inclusions in select specimens. A scaling analysis of mass and momentum transport within the melt pool, presented here, establishes that diffusional structural evolution mechanisms dominate for nanoscale dispersoids, while fluid forces and advection become significant for larger slag inclusions. These findings are developed into a theory of dispersoid structural evolution, integrating quantitative models of diffusional processes – dispersoid dissolution, nucleation, growth, coarsening – with a reduced order model of time-temperature trajectories of fluid parcels within the melt pool. Calculations of the dispersoid size in single-pass melting reveal a zone in the center of the melt track in which the oxide feedstock fully dissolves. Within this zone the final Y 2 O 3 size is independent of feedstock size and determined by nucleation and growth kinetics. If the dissolution zones of adjacent melt tracks overlap sufficiently with each other to dissolve large oxides, formed during printing or present in the powder feedstock, then the dispersoid structure throughout the build volume is homogeneous and matches that from a single pass within the dissolution zone. Gaps between adjacent dissolution zones result in oxide accumulation into larger slag inclusions. Predictions of final dispersoid size and slag formation using this dissolution zone model match the present experimental data and explain process-structure linkages speculated in the open literature.
Statistical modeling of high-dimensional matrix-valued data motivates the use of a low-rank representation that simultaneously summarizes key characteristics of the data and enables dimension reduction. Low-rank representations commonly factor the original data into the product of orthonormal basis functions and weights, where each basis function represents an independent feature of the data. However, the basis functions in these factorizations are typically computed using algorithmic methods that cannot quantify uncertainty or account for basis function correlation structure a priori. While there exist Bayesian methods that allow for a common correlation structure across basis functions, empirical examples motivate the need for basis function-specific dependence structure. We propose a prior distribution for orthonormal matrices that can explicitly model basis function-specific structure. The prior is used within a general probabilistic model for singular value decomposition to conduct posterior inference on the basis functions while accounting for measurement error and fixed effects. We discuss how the prior specification can be used for various scenarios and demonstrate favorable model properties through synthetic data examples. Finally, we apply our method to two-meter air temperature data from the Pacific Northwest, enhancing our understanding of the Earth system’s internal variability.
Structural alloys under irradiation develop radiation-induced segregation (RIS) at point defect sinks, which lead to undesired changes in the alloy's properties. Additively manufactured austenitic stainless steels are expected to yield a distinct response to irradiation damage owing to their unique as-printed dislocation cell structure. In this talk, we present the development of a mesoscale model for dislocation cell structure evolution coupled with RIS using the MOOSE framework. The evolution of network dislocations within spatially distinct cells and cell walls are modeled using climb-mediated edge annihilation and generation processes. Starting with initial microstructures of as-printed non-equilibrium segregations at dislocation cell walls, our 2D and 3D simulations explore the effects of irradiation temperature, dose rate, dislocation sink bias, and specimen thickness on microstructure evolution. The results will be compared against experimental characterizations of in-situ and ex-situ ion-irradiated samples, and the implications of evolving cell structure on irradiation damage response will be discussed.
This study details a model used to infer the 3-D structure of the stagnated hot-spot and shell of inertial confinement fusion implosion experiments at the National Ignition Facility. The model assumes that 3-D low-mode drive perturbations can account for the majority of stagnation asymmetries experimentally observed. It uses an adaptive sampling algorithm to navigate the 24-D input parameter space to find a 3-D x-ray flux asymmetry whose application to an otherwise symmetric implosion results in a consistent match between synthetic and experimental diagnostic observables. The model is applied to a series of experiments and is able to achieve a consistent match for over 41 different observables, providing a high-fidelity reconstruction of the stagnation hot-spot and shell profile.
One key source of uncertainty for weather and climate models is structural uncertainty arising from the fact that these models must simplify or approximate complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur in the real world. However, structural uncertainty is rarely examined in the context of simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux in cities. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model, it is found that the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature to anthropogenic heat flux can differ by an order of magnitude depending on how anthropogenic heat flux is released to the urban environment. Moreover, varying model structures through changing the treatment of roof-air interaction and the parameterization of convective heat transfer between the canopy air and the atmosphere can affect the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature by a factor of 4. Urban surface temperature and 2-m air temperature are less sensitive to the methods of anthropogenic heat flux release and the examined model structural variants than urban canopy air temperature, but their sensitivities to anthropogenic heat flux can still vary by as much as a factor of 4 for surface temperature and 2 for 2-m air temperature. Our study recommends using temperature sensitivity instead of temperature response to understand how various physical processes (and their representations in numerical models) modulate the simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux.
A reanalysis of the model for the longitudinal structure function F_L (x,Q^2) F L ( x , Q 2 ) at low x x and low Q^2 Q 2 was undertaken, in view of the advent of the EIC. The model includes the kinematic constraint F_L\sim Q^4 F L ∼ Q 4 as Q^2\rightarrow Q 2 → 0. It is based on the photon-gluon fusion mechanism suitably extrapolated to the region of low Q^2 Q 2 . Revised model was critically updated, extended to the EIC kinematic region, and e.g. contains new parameterisations of the parton distribution functions.
Here, using x-ray pair distribution function (PDF) analysis and computer modeling, we explore structure models for the complex charge density wave (CDW) phases of layered 1T-TaS 2 that both well capture their atomic-level features and are amenable to electronic structure calculations. The models give the most probable position of constituent atoms in terms of 3D repetitive unit cells comprising a minimum number of Ta–S layers. Structure modeling results confirm the emergence of star-of-David (SD) like clusters of Ta atoms in the high-temperature incommensurate (IC) CDW phase and show that, contrary to the suggestions of recent studies, the low-temperature commensurate (C) CDW phase expands upon cooling thus reducing lattice strain. The C-CDW phase is also found to preserve the stacking sequence of Ta–S layers found in the room temperature, nearly commensurate (NC) CDW phase to a large extent. DFT based on the PDF refined model shows that bulk C-CDW 1T-TaS 2 also preserves the insulating state of individual layers of SD clusters, favoring the Mott physics description of the metal-to-insulator (NC-CDW to C-CDW) phase transition in 1T-TaS 2 . Our work highlights the importance of using precise crystal structure models in determining the nature of electronic phases in complex materials.