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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) Approach to Determine the Probability of Cross-System Failures for a Space Launch Vehicle

Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project

Shih, Ann T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Inlet Flow Control and Prediction Technologies for Embedded Propulsion Systems

Fail-safe, hybrid, flow control (HFC) is a promising technology for meeting high-speed cruise efficiency, low-noise signature, and reduced fuel-burn goals for future, Hybrid-Wing-Body (HWB) aircraft with embedded engines. This report details the development of HFC technology that enables improved inlet performance in HWB vehicles with highly integrated inlets and embedded engines without adversely affecting vehicle performance. In addition, new test techniques for evaluating Boundary-Layer-Ingesting (BLI)-inlet flow-control technologies developed and demonstrated through this program are documented, including the ability to generate a BLI-like inlet-entrance flow in a direct-connect, wind-tunnel facility, as well as, the use of D-optimal, statistically designed experiments to optimize test efficiency and enable interpretation of results. Validated improvements in numerical analysis tools and methods accomplished through this program are also documented, including Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes CFD simulations of steady-state flow physics for baseline, BLI-inlet diffuser flow, as well as, that created by flow-control devices. Finally, numerical methods were employed in a ground-breaking attempt to directly simulate dynamic distortion. The advances in inlet technologies and prediction tools will help to meet and exceed "N+2" project goals for future HWB aircraft.

McMillan, Michelle L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

The effects of context on multidimensional spatial cognitive models

Spatial cognitive models obtained by multidimensional scaling represent cognitive structure by defining alternatives as points in a coordinate space based on relevant dimensions such that interstimulus dissimilarities perceived by the individual correspond to distances between the respective alternatives. The dependence of spatial models on the context of the judgments required of the individual was investigated. Context, which is defined as a perceptual interpretation and cognitive understanding of a judgment situation, was analyzed and classified with respect to five characteristics: physical environment, social environment, task definition, individual perspective, and temporal setting. Four experiments designed to produce changes in the characteristics of context and to test the effects of these changes upon individual cognitive spaces are described with focus on experiment design, objectives, statistical analysis, results, and conclusions. The hypothesis is advanced that an individual can be characterized as having a master cognitive space for a set of alternatives. When the context changes, the individual appears to change the dimension weights to give a new spatial configuration. Factor analysis was used in the interpretation and labeling of cognitive space dimensions.

Dupnick, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Discussion on selected symbiotic stars

Because of its large variety of aspects, the symbiotic phenomenon is not very suitable for a statistical treatment. It is also not clear whether symbiotic stars really represent a homogeneous group of astrophysical objects or a collection of objects of different natures but showing similar phenomena. However we are especially interested in the symbiotic phenomenon, i.e., in those physical processes occurring in the atmosphere of each individual object and in their time dependence. Such a research can be performed through the detailed analysis of individual objects. This study should be done for a time long enough to cover all the different phases of their activity, in all the spectral ranges. Since the typical time scale of the symbiotic phenomena is up to several years and decades, this represents a problem since, for instance, making astronomy outside the visual region is a quite new field of research. It was a fortunate case that a few symbiotic stars (Z And, AG Dra, CH Cyg, AX Per, and PU Vul) had undergone remarkable light variations (or 'outbursts') in recent years, which could have been followed in the space ultraviolet with IUE, and simultaneously in the optical and IR with ground-based telescopes. But, in general, the time coverage of most of the symbiotic objects is too short to have a complete picture of their behavior. In this regard, one should recall Mayall's remark about the light curve of Z And: 'Z Andromedae is another variable that shows it will require several hundred years of observations before a good analysis can be made of its variations'. This pessimistic remark should be considered as a note of caution for those involved in the interpretation of the observations. We shall discuss a number of individual symbiotic stars for which the amount of observational data is large enough to draw a rather complete picture of their general behavior and to make consistent models. We shall especially illustrate the necessary steps toward an empirical model and take the discussion of the individual objects as a useful occasion to describe different techniques of diagnosis.

Viotti, Roberto↗
NASA NTRS1995

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 1: Development of models predicting surface shelter temperatures

Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate and site-specific data to represent the local landscape. Global monthly mean temperature models were developed using data from over 5000 stations available in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperature models for the United States were also developed using data from over 1000 stations available in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and comparative monthly mean temperature models were developed using over 1150 U.S. stations in the GHCN. Three-, six-, and full-variable models were developed for comparative purposes. Inferences about the variables selected for the various models were easier for the GHCN models, which displayed month-to-month consistency in which variables were selected, than for the COOP models, which were assigned a different list of variables for nearly every month. These and other results suggest that global calibration is preferred because data from the global spectrum of physical processes that control surface temperatures are incorporated in a global model. All of the models that were developed in this study validated relatively well, especially the global models. Recalibration of the models with validation data resulted in only slightly poorer regression statistics, indicating that the calibration list of variables was valid. Predictions using data from the validation dataset in the calibrated equation were better for the GHCN models, and the globally calibrated GHCN models generally provided better U.S. predictions than the U.S.-calibrated COOP models. Overall, the GHCN and COOP models explained approximately 64%-95% of the total variance of surface shelter temperatures, depending on the month and the number of model variables. In addition, root-mean-square errors (rmse's) were over 3 C for GHCN models and over 2 C for COOP models for winter months, and near 2 C for GHCN models and near 1.5 C for COOP models for summer months.

Epperson, David L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Modeling of shallow and inefficient convection in the outer layers of the Sun using realistic physics

In an attempt to understand the properties of convective energy transport in the solar convective zone, a numerical model has been constructed for turbulent flows in a compressible, radiation-coupled, nonmagnetic, gravitationally stratified medium using a realistic equation of state and realistic opacities. The time-dependent, three-dimensional hydrodynamic equations are solved with minimal simplifications. The statistical information obtained from the present simulation provides an improved undserstanding of solar photospheric convection. The characteristics of solar convection in shallow regions is parameterized and compared with the results of Chan & Sofia's (1989) simulations of deep and efficient convection. We assess the importance of the zones of partial ionization in the simulation and confirm that the radiative energy transfer is negliglble throughout the region except in the uppermost scale heights of the convection zone, a region of very high superadiabaticity. When the effects of partial ionization are included, the dynamics of flows are altered significantly. However, we confirm the Chan & Sofia result that kinetic energy flux is nonnegligible and can have a negative value in the convection zone.

Kim, Yong-Cheol↗
NASA NTRS2003

Linearly Forced Isotropic Turbulence

Stationary isotropic turbulence is often studied numerically by adding a forcing term to the Navier-Stokes equation. This is usually done for the purpose of achieving higher Reynolds number and longer statistics than is possible for isotropic decaying turbulence. It is generally accepted that forcing the Navier-Stokes equation at low wave number does not influence the small scale statistics of the flow provided that there is wide separation between the largest and smallest scales. It will be shown, however, that the spectral width of the forcing has a noticeable effect on inertial range statistics. A case will be made here for using a broader form of forcing in order to compare computed isotropic stationary turbulence with (decaying) grid turbulence. It is shown that using a forcing function which is directly proportional to the velocity has physical meaning and gives results which are closer to both homogeneous and non-homogeneous turbulence. Section 1 presents a four part series of motivations for linear forcing. Section 2 puts linear forcing to a numerical test with a pseudospectral computation.

Lundgren, T. S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Study of the Microbial Diversity of a Newly Discovered East Antarctic Freshwater Lake, L27C, and of a Perennially Ice-Covered Lake Untersee

The microbial communities that reside within freshwater lakes of Schirmacher and Untersee Oases in East Antarctica must cope with extreme conditions that may include cold temperature, annual freeze-thaw cycles, exposure to UV radiation, especially during the austral summer months, low light beneath thick ice-cover, followed by seasonal darkness. The objective of this study was to assess the microbial biodiversity and distribution from samples taken from two freshwater lakes (L27C and Lake Untersee) that were collected during the Tawani 2008 International Antarctic Expedition that conducted research in this region of Antarctica. L27C is a small, previously unreported lake residing 2 km WNW of Maitri Station at Schirmacher Oasis. Biodiversity and distribution of microorganisms within the lake were studied using both culture-independent and culture-dependent methodologies based upon the analysis of eubacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences. Lake Untersee, a perennially ice-covered, ultra-oligotrophic, lake in the Otto-von-Gruber-Gebirge (Gruber Mountains) of central Dronning Maud Land was also sampled and the microbial diversity was analyzed by eubacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences derived from pure cultures. Direct culturing of water samples from each lake on separate R2A growth medium exhibited a variety of microorganisms including: Janthinobacterium, Hymenobacter, Sphingamonas, Subtercola, Deinococcus, Arthrobacter, Flavobacterium, Polaromonas, Rhodoferax and Duganella. The evaluation of samples from L27C through culture-independent methodology identified a rich microbial diversity consisting of six different phyla of bacteria. The culture-independent analysis also displayed the majority of bacteria (56%) belonged to the Class gamma-proteobacteria within the phylum Proteobacteria. Within the Class gamma-proteobacteria, Acinetobacter dominated (48%) the total microbial load. Overall, L27C exhibited 7 different phyla of bacteria and 20 different genera. Statistical analysis (Shannon-Weaver Diversity Index and Simpson Diversity Index) of the biodiversity of L27C displayed a moderately rich and diverse community. Investigations of the biodiversity and distribution of microorganisms in these lakes will help further our understanding of how the physical environment impact the structure and function within these microbially dominated ecosystems.

Huang, Jonathan P.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Ambiguity of Quality in Remote Sensing Data

This slide presentation reviews some of the issues in quality of remote sensing data. Data "quality" is used in several different contexts in remote sensing data, with quite different meanings. At the pixel level, quality typically refers to a quality control process exercised by the processing algorithm, not an explicit declaration of accuracy or precision. File level quality is usually a statistical summary of the pixel-level quality but is of doubtful use for scenes covering large areal extents. Quality at the dataset or product level, on the other hand, usually refers to how accurately the dataset is believed to represent the physical quantities it purports to measure. This assessment often bears but an indirect relationship at best to pixel level quality. In addition to ambiguity at different levels of granularity, ambiguity is endemic within levels. Pixel-level quality terms vary widely, as do recommendations for use of these flags. At the dataset/product level, quality for low-resolution gridded products is often extrapolated from validation campaigns using high spatial resolution swath data, a suspect practice at best. Making use of quality at all levels is complicated by the dependence on application needs. We will present examples of the various meanings of quality in remote sensing data and possible ways forward toward a more unified and usable quality framework.

Lynnes, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Prediction and Analysis of Jet Flows and Scattered Turbulent Mixing Noise about Flight Vehicle Airframes

Jet flows interacting with nearby surfaces exhibit a complex behavior in which acoustic and aerodynamic characteristics are altered. The physical understanding and prediction of these characteristics are essential to designing future low noise aircraft. A new approach is created for predicting scattered jet mixing noise that utilizes an acoustic analogy and steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions. A tailored Green's function accounts for the propagation of mixing noise about the airframe and is calculated numerically using a newly developed ray tracing method. The steady aerodynamic statistics, associated unsteady sound source, and acoustic intensity are examined as jet conditions are varied about a large flat plate. A non-dimensional number is proposed to estimate the effect of the aerodynamic noise source relative to jet operating condition and airframe position.The steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions, acoustic analogy, tailored Green's function, non-dimensional number, and predicted noise are validated with a wide variety of measurements. The combination of the developed theory, ray tracing method, and careful implementation in a stand-alone computer program result in an approach that is more first principles oriented than alternatives, computationally efficient, and captures the relevant physics of fluid-structure interaction.

Miller, Steven A. E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Probing the tides in interacting galaxy pairs

Detailed spectroscopic and imaging observations of colliding elliptical galaxies revealed unmistakable diagnostic signatures of the tidal interactions. It is possible to compare both the distorted luminosity distributions and the disturbed internal rotation profiles with numerical simulations in order to model the strength of the tidal gravitational field acting within a given pair of galaxies. Using the best-fit numerical model, one can then measure directly the mass of a specific interacting binary system. This technique applies to individual pairs and therefore complements the classical methods of measuring the masses of galaxy pairs in well-defined statistical samples. The 'personalized' modeling of galaxy pairs also permits the derivation of each binary's orbit, spatial orientation, and interaction timescale. Similarly, one can probe the tides in less-detailed observations of disturbed galaxies in order to estimate some of the physical parameters for larger samples of interacting galaxy pairs. These parameters are useful inputs to the more universal problems of (1) the galaxy merger rate, (2) the strength and duration of the driving forces behind tidally stimulated phenomena (e.g., starbursts and maybe quasi steller objects), and (3) the identification of long-lived signatures of interaction/merger events.

Borne, Kirk D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Heterodyne efficiency for a coherent laser radar with diffuse or aerosol targets

The performance of a Coherent Laser Radar is determined by the statistics of the coherent Doppler signal. The heterodyne efficiency is an excellent indication of performance because it is an absolute measure of beam alignment and is independent of the transmitter power, the target backscatter coefficient, the atmospheric attenuation, and the detector quantum efficiency and gain. The theoretical calculation of heterodyne efficiency for an optimal monostatic lidar with a circular aperture and Gaussian transmit laser is presented including beam misalignment in the far-field and near-field regimes. The statistical behavior of estimates of the heterodyne efficiency using a calibration hard target are considered. For space based applications, a biased estimate of heterodyne efficiency is proposed that removes the variability due to the random surface return but retains the sensitivity to misalignment. Physical insight is provided by simulation of the fields on the detector surface. The required detector calibration is also discussed.

Frehlich, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Spotlight-8 Image Analysis Software

Spotlight is a cross-platform GUI-based software package designed to perform image analysis on sequences of images generated by combustion and fluid physics experiments run in a microgravity environment. Spotlight can perform analysis on a single image in an interactive mode or perform analysis on a sequence of images in an automated fashion. Image processing operations can be employed to enhance the image before various statistics and measurement operations are performed. An arbitrarily large number of objects can be analyzed simultaneously with independent areas of interest. Spotlight saves results in a text file that can be imported into other programs for graphing or further analysis. Spotlight can be run on Microsoft Windows, Linux, and Apple OS X platforms.

Klimek, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2008

Sensor Selection and Data Validation for Reliable Integrated System Health Management

For new access to space systems with challenging mission requirements, effective implementation of integrated system health management (ISHM) must be available early in the program to support the design of systems that are safe, reliable, highly autonomous. Early ISHM availability is also needed to promote design for affordable operations; increased knowledge of functional health provided by ISHM supports construction of more efficient operations infrastructure. Lack of early ISHM inclusion in the system design process could result in retrofitting health management systems to augment and expand operational and safety requirements; thereby increasing program cost and risk due to increased instrumentation and computational complexity. Having the right sensors generating the required data to perform condition assessment, such as fault detection and isolation, with a high degree of confidence is critical to reliable operation of ISHM. Also, the data being generated by the sensors needs to be qualified to ensure that the assessments made by the ISHM is not based on faulty data. NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing technologies for sensor selection and data validation as part of the FDDR (Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Response) element of the Upper Stage project of the Ares 1 launch vehicle development. This presentation will provide an overview of the GRC approach to sensor selection and data quality validation and will present recent results from applications that are representative of the complexity of propulsion systems for access to space vehicles. A brief overview of the sensor selection and data quality validation approaches is provided below. The NASA GRC developed Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4) is a model-based procedure for systematically and quantitatively selecting an optimal sensor suite to provide overall health assessment of a host system. S4 can be logically partitioned into three major subdivisions: the knowledge base, the down-select iteration, and the final selection analysis. The knowledge base required for productive use of S4 consists of system design information and heritage experience together with a focus on components with health implications. The sensor suite down-selection is an iterative process for identifying a group of sensors that provide good fault detection and isolation for targeted fault scenarios. In the final selection analysis, a statistical evaluation algorithm provides the final robustness test for each down-selected sensor suite. NASA GRC has developed an approach to sensor data qualification that applies empirical relationships, threshold detection techniques, and Bayesian belief theory to a network of sensors related by physics (i.e., analytical redundancy) in order to identify the failure of a given sensor within the network. This data quality validation approach extends the state-of-the-art, from red-lines and reasonableness checks that flag a sensor after it fails, to include analytical redundancy-based methods that can identify a sensor in the process of failing. The focus of this effort is on understanding the proper application of analytical redundancy-based data qualification methods for onboard use in monitoring Upper Stage sensors.

Garg, Sanjay↗
NASA NTRS2010

Turbulence and the Stabilization Principle

Further results of research, reported in several previous NASA Tech Briefs articles, were obtained on a mathematical formalism for postinstability motions of a dynamical system characterized by exponential divergences of trajectories leading to chaos (including turbulence). To recapitulate: Fictitious control forces are introduced to couple the dynamical equations with a Liouville equation that describes the evolution of the probability density of errors in initial conditions. These forces create a powerful terminal attractor in probability space that corresponds to occurrence of a target trajectory with probability one. The effect in ordinary perceived three-dimensional space is to suppress exponential divergences of neighboring trajectories without affecting the target trajectory. Con sequently, the postinstability motion is represented by a set of functions describing the evolution of such statistical quantities as expectations and higher moments, and this representation is stable. The previously reported findings are analyzed from the perspective of the authors Stabilization Principle, according to which (1) stability is recognized as an attribute of mathematical formalism rather than of underlying physics and (2) a dynamical system that appears unstable when modeled by differentiable functions only can be rendered stable by modifying the dynamical equations to incorporate intrinsic stochasticity.

Zak, Michail↗
NASA NTRS2018

Automatic Design of Missions to Small Bodies

The new JPL Small-Body Automatic Mission-Design System comprises two main elements: a database of pre-computed mission options to all known asteroids and comets, and an interactive web interface that can be used to design transfers to each small body. The system is kept current with the JPL Small Body orbit catalog, is publicly available, and can be accessed from the JPL Solar System Dynamics Group website. The missions computed by the automatic system are impulsive. However, a low-thrust v estimate is also provided. The database of pre-computed missions can be filtered to find potential targets with certain orbital and physical properties, and that meet specific mission-design constraints. In addition to describing the system in detail, this paper presents empirical analytic expressions to approximate the impulsive v requirements of missions to comets and to each family of asteroids, obtained by fitting statistical data. To show how the interactive interface works, we consider mission options to asteroid 99942 Apophis. We also include optimal mission opportunities to other selected small bodies.

Farnocchia, Davide↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Prediction and Analysis of Jet Flows and Scattered Turbulent Mixing Noise About Flight Vehicle Airframes

Jet flows interacting with nearby surfaces exhibit a complex behavior in which acoustic and aerodynamic characteristics are altered. The physical understanding and prediction of these characteristics are essential to designing future low noise aircraft. A new approach is created for predicting scattered jet mixing noise that utilizes an acoustic analogy and steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions. A tailored Green's function accounts for the propagation of mixing noise about the air-frame and is calculated numerically using a newly developed ray tracing method. The steady aerodynamic statistics, associated unsteady sound source, and acoustic intensity are examined as jet conditions are varied about a large at plate. A non-dimensional number is proposed to estimate the effect of the aerodynamic noise source relative to jet operating condition and airframe position. The steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions, acoustic analogy, tailored Green's function, non- dimensional number, and predicted noise are validated with a wide variety of measurements. The combination of the developed theory, ray tracing method, and careful implementation in a stand-alone computer program result in an approach that is more first principles oriented than alternatives, computationally efficient, and captures the relevant physics of fluid-structure interaction.

Miller, Steven A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Physical conditions in the cool parts of prominences

A spectral analysis of the cool parts of seven prominences reported by Shin-Huei (1961) and Yakovkin and Zel'dina (1964) is presented. The analysis requires only measurements of the Na and Sr(+) resonance lines and the middle H Balmer lines, all of which are optically thin, and uses the Na and Sr(+) statistical equilibrium solutions of Landman (1983). It is shown that the Na/H integrated intensity ratios alone are sufficient to determine the degree of H ionization. The major result of this investigation is that the degree of H ionization in the cool prominence parts is very low and the total gas pressure very high.

Landman, D. A.↗