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At least 631 records · Page 35

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

Effective Field Theory of Random Quantum Circuits

Quantum circuits have been widely used as a platform to simulate generic quantum many-body systems. In particular, random quantum circuits provide a means to probe universal features of many-body quantum chaos and ergodicity. Some such features have already been experimentally demonstrated in noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. On the theory side, properties of random quantum circuits have been studied on a case-by-case basis and for certain specific systems, and a hallmark of quantum chaos—universal Wigner–Dyson level statistics—has been derived. This work develops an effective field theory for a large class of random quantum circuits. The theory has the form of a replica sigma model and is similar to the low-energy approach to diffusion in disordered systems. The method is used to explicitly derive the universal random matrix behavior of a large family of random circuits. In particular, we rederive the Wigner–Dyson spectral statistics of the brickwork circuit model by Chan, De Luca, and Chalker [Phys. Rev. X 8, 041019 (2018)] and show within the same calculation that its various permutations and higher-dimensional generalizations preserve the universal level statistics. Finally, we use the replica sigma model framework to rederive the Weingarten calculus, which is a method of evaluating integrals of polynomials of matrix elements with respect to the Haar measure over compact groups and has many applications in the study of quantum circuits. The effective field theory derived here provides both a method to quantitatively characterize the quantum dynamics of random Floquet systems (e.g., calculating operator and entanglement spreading) and a path to understanding the general fundamental mechanism behind quantum chaos and thermalization in these systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Dynamic mechanical characterization of cure of a polyimide-graphite fiber composite (PMR 15/Celion 6000)

Dynamic mechanical studies of thermosetting PMR 15 polyimide/Celion 6000 composites were used to characterize cure behavior. Variation in composite shear modulus with cure time for laminates partially cured under 3.45 MPa pressure was compared with that of laminates fully cured under pressure to select a partially cured system whose behavior corresponded with that of the pressure-cured composites. An empirical kinetic model was developed that relates relative composite shear moduli to cure time and temperature. This model, coupled with standard statistical techniques, was used in the determination of an overall activation energy, E = 145 kj/mole (35 kcal/mole) and order of reaction, n, for the cure reaction(s). The empirical relationship defining dynamic modulus as a function of time and temperature remained linear well into the glassy region. Changes in dynamic glass-transition temperature and in the breadth of the transition peaks with cure time are discussed. Shear modulus and damping were found to be more sensitive measures of relative extent of cure than Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy.

Hurwitz, F. I.↗

Some properties of a 5-parameter bivariate probability distribution

A five-parameter bivariate gamma distribution having two shape parameters, two location parameters and a correlation parameter was developed. This more general bivariate gamma distribution reduces to the known four-parameter distribution. The five-parameter distribution gives a better fit to the gust data. The statistical properties of this general bivariate gamma distribution and a hypothesis test were investigated. Although these developments have come too late in the Shuttle program to be used directly as design criteria for ascent wind gust loads, the new wind gust model has helped to explain the wind profile conditions which cause large dynamic loads. Other potential applications of the newly developed five-parameter bivariate gamma distribution are in the areas of reliability theory, signal noise, and vibration mechanics.

Tubbs, J. D.↗

Melt extruded versus extrusion compression molded glass-polypropylene long fiber thermoplastic composites

Long fiber thermoplastic (LFT) composites are processed either with extrusion compression or fiber injection processes. The properties of LFT materials are highly influenced by processing techniques, which lead to different porosity contents, fiber length distributions, and fiber orientation distributions. It is important to understand the various LFT processing techniques and their effects on mechanical, thermal, and microscopic properties. This work considered LFT sheets processed via extrusion, which offers highly aligned fibers (referred to as “Tecnogor composites”), and LFT composites produced via extrusion compression molding (ECM), which offers a random distribution of fibers. Tecnogor composites exhibited higher flexural strength (35–65%), flexural modulus (132–172%), tensile strength (39–52%), tensile modulus (67–75%), and Izod impact resistance (195–220%) than the random LFT composites. This response was attributed to the aligned fibers in Tecnogor composites. Mathematical models including Halpin-Tsai and Lavengood-Goettler were used to predict and compare the Young’s modulus of Tecnogor and ECM composites, respectively.

mechanical testing↗

The persistence of memory in ionic conduction probed by nonlinear optics

Predicting practical rates of transport in condensed phases enables the rational design of materials, devices and processes. This is especially critical to developing low-carbon energy technologies such as rechargeable batteries. For ionic conduction, the collective mechanisms, variation of conductivity with timescales and confinement, and ambiguity in the phononic origin of translation, call for a direct probe of the fundamental steps of ionic diffusion: ion hops. However, such hops are rare-event large-amplitude translations, and are challenging to excite and detect. Here we use single-cycle terahertz pumps to impulsively trigger ionic hopping in battery solid electrolytes. This is visualized by an induced transient birefringence, enabling direct probing of anisotropy in ionic hopping on the picosecond timescale. The relaxation of the transient signal measures the decay of orientational memory, and the production of entropy in diffusion. We extend experimental results using in silico transient birefringence to identify vibrational attempt frequencies for ion hopping. Using nonlinear optical methods, we probe ion transport at its fastest limit, distinguish correlated conduction mechanisms from a true random walk at the atomic scale, and demonstrate the connection between activated transport and the thermodynamics of information.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Data-Driven Framework for Power System Event Type Identification via Safe Semi-Supervised Techniques

Herein this paper investigates the use of phasor measurement unit (PMU) data with deep learning techniques to construct real-time event identification models for transmission networks. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources represents a great opportunity to achieve decarbonization, as well as challenges in systematic situational awareness. When high-resolution PMU data and sufficient manually recorded event labels are available, the power event identification problem is defined as a statistical classification problem that can be solved by numerous cutting-edge classifiers. However, in real grids, collecting tremendous high-quality event labels is quite expensive. Utilities frequently have a large number of event records without in-depth details (i.e., unlabeled events). To bridge this gap, we propose a novel semi-supervised learning-based method to improve the performance of event classifiers trained with a limited number of labeled events by exploiting the information from massive unlabeled events. In other words, compared to existing data-driven methods, our method requires only a small portion of labeled data to achieve a similar level of accuracy. Meanwhile, this work discusses and addresses the performance degradation caused by class distribution mismatch between the training set and the real applications. Based on the proposed safe learning mechanism, our model does not directly use all unlabeled events during model training, but selectively uses them through a comprehensive evaluation procedure. Numerical studies on a sizable PMU dataset have been used to validate the performance of the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Differentiable Preisach Modeling for Characterization and Optimization of Particle Accelerator Systems with Hysteresis

Future improvements in particle accelerator performance are predicated on increasingly accurate online modeling of accelerators. Hysteresis effects in magnetic, mechanical, and material components of accelerators are often neglected in online accelerator models used to inform control algorithms, even though reproducibility errors from systems exhibiting hysteresis are not negligible in high precision accelerators. Here, we combine the classical Preisach model of hysteresis with machine learning techniques to efficiently create nonparametric, high-fidelity models of arbitrary systems exhibiting hysteresis. We experimentally demonstrate how these methods can be used in situ, where a hysteresis model of an accelerator magnet is combined with a Bayesian statistical model of the beam response, allowing characterization of magnetic hysteresis solely from beam-based measurements. Finally, we explore how using these joint hysteresis-Bayesian statistical models allows us to overcome optimization performance limitations that arise when hysteresis effects are ignored.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Influence of wave dispersion on vortex pairing in a jet

The geometry of large-scale structures in the turbulent mixing layer of a moderate Reynolds number jet is deduced from measurements of the fluctuating pressure in the hydrodynamic near field. The structures are rings of concentrated vorticity that distort with downstream distance until statistical axisymmetry disappears. The rings are spaced quasi-periodically and coalesce with each other, producing larger spacings. Statistical and flow-visualization techniques are applied to free and forced jets over a range of Reynolds numbers from 5000 to 50,000 to demonstrate that rings of a given spacing do not coalesce with each other until they are far enough downstream that the local mixing layer has attained some critical thickness which scales with the wavelength of the vortex pair. Wave dispersion is evaluated as a plausible mechanism for localizing the coalescences. The central feature of the model is the observation that a shear layer is dispersive to wavelengths much longer than its thickness and nondispersive to shorter waves.

Petersen, R. A.↗

Turbulence theories and statistical closure approaches

When discussing research in physics and in science more generally, it is common to ascribe equal importance to the three components of the scientific trinity: theoretical, experimental, and computational studies. This review will explore the future of modern turbulence theory by tracing its history, which began in earnest with Kolmogorov’s 1941 analysis of turbulence cascade and inertial range [A.N. Kolmogorov, Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR, 30, 299, (1941); 32, 19, (1941)]. The 80th Anniversary of Kolmogorov’s landmark study is a welcome opportunity to survey the achievements and evaluate the future of the theoretical approach of turbulence research. Over the years, turbulence theories have been critically important in laying the foundation of our understanding of the nature of turbulent flows. In particular, the Direct Interaction Approximation (DIA) [R.H. Kraichnan, J. Fluid Mech., 5, 497 (1959)] and its subsequent development, known as the statistical closure approach, can be identified as perhaps the most profound single advancement. The remarkable success of the statistical closure has furnished a platform to study such essential concepts as the energy transfer process and interacting scales, and the roles of the straining and sweeping motions. More recently, the quasi-Lagrangian formulation of V. L’vov & I. Procaccia and Kraichnan’s solvable passive scalar model provided powerful ways to explore another fundamental aspect of turbulent flows, the phenomena of intermittency, and the associated anomalous scaling exponents. In the meantime, the theory of fluid equilibria has been developed to describe the large-scale structures that can emerge from turbulent cascades of two-dimensional and geophysical flows at a later time. And yet, despite all these successes, analytical treatments suffer from mathematical complexities. As a result, the utility of theoretical approaches has been limited to relatively idealized flows. On the other hand, in recent decades, computational abilities and experimental facilities have reached an unprecedented scale. Looking beyond the horizon, the imminent deployment of exascale supercomputers will generate complete datasets of the entire flow field of key benchmark flows, allowing researchers to extract additional measurements concerning fully developed, complex turbulent flow fields far beyond those available from the statistical closure theories. Some other developments that could potentially influence the future course of turbulence theories include the advancement of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and data science; likely disruptions arising from the advent of quantum computation; and the increasingly prominent role of turbulence research in providing more accurate climate scientific data. Finally, turbulence theorists can leverage these developments by asking the right questions and developing advanced, sophisticated frameworks that will be able to predict and correlate vast amounts of data from the other two components of the trinity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Search for Higgs boson decays to a Z boson and a photon in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

Results are presented from a search for the Higgs boson decay H → Zγ, where Z → ℓ$^{+}$ℓ$^{−}$ with ℓ = e or μ. The search is performed using a sample of proton-proton (pp) collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. Events are assigned to mutually exclusive categories, which exploit differences in both event topology and kinematics of distinct Higgs production mechanisms to enhance signal sensitivity. The signal strength μ, defined as the product of the cross section and the branching fraction $ \left[\sigma \left(\textrm{pp}\to \textrm{H}\right)\mathcal{B}\left(\textrm{H}\to \textrm{Z}\upgamma \right)\right] $ relative to the standard model prediction, is extracted from a simultaneous fit to the ℓ$^{+}$ℓ$^{−}$γ invariant mass distributions in all categories and is measured to be μ = 2.4 ± 0.9 for a Higgs boson mass of 125.38 GeV. The statistical significance of the observed excess of events is 2.7 standard deviations. This measurement corresponds to $ \left[\sigma \left(\textrm{pp}\to \textrm{H}\right)\mathcal{B}\left(\textrm{H}\to \textrm{Z}\upgamma \right)\right]=0.21\pm 0.08 $ pb. The observed (expected) upper limit at 95% confidence level on μ is 4.1 (1.8), where the expected limit is calculated under the background-only hypothesis. The ratio of branching fractions $ \mathcal{B}\left(\textrm{H}\to \textrm{Z}\upgamma \right)/\mathcal{B}\left(\textrm{H}\to \upgamma \upgamma \right) $ is measured to be $ {1.5}_{-0.6}^{+0.7} $, which agrees with the standard model prediction of 0.69 ± 0.04 at the 1.5 standard deviation level.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Nonmonotonic effect of chemical heterogeneity on interfacial crack growth at high-angle grain boundaries in Fe-Ni-Cr alloys

Here, an intermittent pattern is observed in the modeling of interfacial cyclic-loading crack growth at high-angle grain boundaries in ternary Fe-Ni-Cr alloys. Different from conventional wisdom of stress-intensity factor, the abrupt crack advances are found driven by extreme value statistics—namely, the aggregation of atoms with most compressive residual stresses. In addition, inherently non-affine atomic stress fluctuations are discovered, and the fluctuations peak at intermediate level of chemical heterogeneity, causing the fastest crack growth. Implications of such nonmonotonic mechanism in regard to the origin of intermediate-temperature embrittlement phenomena are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An over-approximation of entropy for elemental multiconfigurational ground state electronic structures

The ability to predict the chemical and physical properties of a material is directly related to the structure and interactions of its electrons. For materials comprised of f-block elements (the lanthanides and actinides found in the last two rows of the periodic table), the complexity of electronic structure has presented great difficulty in understanding, modeling, and predicting material properties. The complexity of multiconfigurational ground state electronic structures is illustrated herein by the combinatorics of electron permutations within individual and cumulative occupancy configurations. A non-integer orbital occupancy representation of multiconfigurational ground states is described for superposition mixing between multiple near-energy degenerate occupancy configurations and generalized in such a way that established ground states are returned by approximation for elements with less-complex electronic structures. By considering the occupancy configurations as statistical mechanics macrostates, and the permutations of electrons as statistical mechanics microstates within those macrostates, an over-approximation of entropy for multiconfigurational elemental ground state electronic structures has been calculated.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Statistical mechanics of dilute liquid mixtures of He3 in He4

The Woo-Tan-Massey quantum-mechanical theory of dilute mixtures of He-3 in liquid He-4 is extended to incorporate superfluid flow. Then statistical-mechanical principles are employed to find explicit formulas for thermodyanmic and hydrodynamic properties of mixtures, such as internal energy, free energy, entropy, pressure, chemical potential, and normal-fluid and superfluid densities. This paper is the first in a planned series that applies methods originally developed for pure liquid He-4 to dilute mixtures as a means of establishing a comprehensive theory that includes a theoretical bridge between a microscopic description of the mixtures and a hydrodynamic two-fluid model. Ultimately effects of applied electric and magnetic fields on dilute solutions are also planned to be treated.

Jackson, H. W.↗

Radar response of vegetation: An overview

This document contains a number of viewgraphs on surface and vegetation backscattering. A classification of vegetation based on general scattering properties is presented. Radar scattering mechanisms are discussed, and backscattering and reflection coefficients for soil back scattering models are given. Radar response to vegetation is presented, with the objectives to discriminate and classify vegetation; to estimate biomass, leaf area index (LAI), and soil moisture; and to monitor changes, including deforestation and growth. Both theory and observation (laboratory, field, air SAR, and European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-1) observations) are used to present backscatter coefficients and other data for various vegetation types. ERS-1 results include class statistics, comparison with theory, and biomass response and seasonal variation (LAI) for deciduous and coniferous forests.

Ulaby, Fawwaz T.↗

GRCop-84 Developed for Rocket Engines

GRCop-84 (Cu-8 at.% Cr-4 at.% Nb) was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center for use in regeneratively cooled rocket engines. This alloy possesses an excellent combination of conductivity, thermal expansion, strength, creep resistance, ductility, and low-cycle fatigue (LCF) life. In comparison to the currently used alloy, NARloy-Z (Cu-3 wt % Ag-0.5 wt % Zr), GRCop-84's significantly better properties give it the potential for significant gains in engine performance and reliability. For GRCop-84 to be safely used in a rocket engine, it is critical to develop a detailed data base of the important thermophysical and mechanical properties. Work has focused on five major properties: thermal conductivity, thermal expansion, tensile strength, creep resistance, and LCF life. The analysis went beyond simply measuring the data and reporting averages. A detailed statistical analysis was conducted that allowed regression of the data over the entire temperature range tested and establishment of design minimums. The design values were expressed as simple mathematical formulas that are highly amenable to use in computer codes such as in finite element analysis and related computer modeling work.

Ellis, David L.↗

Flow Fields of Internally Mixed Exhaust Systems With External Plug For Supersonic Transport Applications

Commercial supersonic vehicles of the future will likely use engines with lower bypass ratios, where the design of the internal mixer will have a strong impact on the noise produced by the jet plume. Their exhaust systems may also feature external plugs to improve boattail angle for cruise performance at supersonic speeds. Currently there are no publicly available empirical noise models for such nozzle systems, and insight into their flow fields will help in creating these models. For those attempting to make large eddy simulations and other higher fidelity methods be their main prediction tool, the internally mixed exhaust system is also a good test case when going beyond simple single-stream jets. The turbulent flow statistics of several configurations previously tested for noise and shocks have been measured for flow conditions that can be used in development of empirical models and validating scale-resolving prediction tools. These measurements are presented and briefly analyzed for insights into the noise impacts from the flow impacts observed.

Fluid Mechanics and Thermodynamics↗

Spectral fluctuations in the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model

We present a detailed quantitative analysis of spectral correlations in the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model. We find that the deviations from universal Random Matrix Theory (RMT) behavior are due to a small number of long-wavelength fluctuations (of the order of the number of Majorana fermions N ) from one realization of the ensemble to the next one. These modes can be parameterized effectively in terms of Q-Hermite orthogonal polynomials, the main contribution being due to scale fluctuations for which we give a simple analytical estimate. Our numerical results for N = 32 show that only the lowest eight polynomials are needed to eliminate the nonuniversal part of the spectral fluctuations. The covariance matrix of the coefficients of this expansion can be obtained analytically from low-order double-trace moments. We evaluate the covariance matrix of the first six moments and find that it agrees with the numerics. We also analyze the spectral correlations in terms of a nonlinear σ-model, which is derived through a Fierz transformation, and evaluate the one and two-point spectral correlation functions to two-loop order. The wide correlator is given by the sum of the universal RMT result and corrections whose lowest-order term corresponds to scale fluctuations. However, the loop expansion of the σ-model results in an ill-behaved expansion of the resolvent, and it gives universal RMT fluctuations not only for q= 4 or higher even q-body interactions, but also for the q= 2 SYK model albeit with a much smaller Thouless energy while the correct result in this case should have been Poisson statistics. In our numerical studies we analyze the number variance and spectral form factor for N = 32 and q = 4. We show that the quadratic deviation of the number variance for large energies appears as a peak for small times in the spectral form factor. After eliminating the long-wavelength fluctuations, we find quantitative agreement with RMT up to an exponentially large number of level spacings for the number variance or exponentially short times in the case of the spectral form factor.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗