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DOE OSTI2022

A Framework for Inverse Prediction Using Functional Response Data

Inverse prediction models have commonly been developed to handle scalar data from physical experiments. However, it is not uncommon for data to be collected in functional form. When data are collected in functional form, it must be aggregated to fit the form of traditional methods, which often results in a loss of information. For expensive experiments, this loss of information can be costly. In this study, we introduce the functional inverse prediction (FIP) framework, a general approach which uses the full information in functional response data to provide inverse predictions with probabilistic prediction uncertainties obtained with the bootstrap. The FIP framework is a general methodology that can be modified by practitioners to accommodate many different applications and types of data. We demonstrate the framework, highlighting points of flexibility, with a simulation example and applications to weather data and to nuclear forensics. Results show how functional models can improve the accuracy and precision of predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Anatomy of Continuous Mars SEIS and Pressure Data from Unsupervised Learning

The seismic noise recorded by the Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy, and Heat Transport (InSight) seismometer (Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure [SEIS]) has a strong daily quasi-periodicity and numerous transient microevents, associated mostly with an active Martian environment with wind bursts, pressure drops, in addition to thermally induced lander and instrument cracks. That noise is far from the Earth’s microseismic noise. Quantifying the importance of nonstochasticity and identifying these microevents is mandatory for improving continuous data quality and noise analysis techniques, including autocorrelation. Cataloging these events has so far been made with specific algorithms and operator’s visual inspection. We investigate here the continuous data with an unsupervised deep-learning approach built on a deep scattering network. This leads to the successful detection and clustering of these microevents as well as better determination of daily cycles associated with changes in the intensity and color of the background noise. We first provide a description of our approach, and then present the learned clusters followed by a study of their origin and associated physical phenomena. We show that the clustering is robust over several Martian days, showing distinct types of glitches that repeat at a rate of several tens per sol with stable time differences. We show that the clustering and detection efficiency for pressure drops and glitches is comparable to or better than manual or targeted detection techniques proposed to date, noticeably with an unsupervised approach. Finally, here we discuss the origin of other clusters found, especially glitch sequences with stable time offsets that might generate artifacts in autocorrelation analyses. We conclude with presenting the potential of unsupervised learning for long-term space mission operations, in particular, for geophysical and environmental observatories.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Battery Life Prediction Using Reduced-Order Physics Models and Machine Learning (CRADA Final Report)

Phase 1 (Original CRADA, plus no-cost extension modifications #1-3, 6/1/2017 to 3/13/2021): The Australian Department of Defence (AUDoD) is performing accelerated aging tests of Li-ion batteries to benchmark their reliability and degradation characteristics. Using its previously developed battery lifetime predictive model framework, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) will develop analytical models based the AUDoD data to predict lifetime of the multiple Li-ion battery chemistries under real-world use scenarios of interest to AUDoD. The NLR model is based on physical degradation mechanisms encountered by Li-ion batteries and has been previously validated. Phase 2 (CRADA modification #4, plus no-cost extension modification #5, 2/22/2021 to 3/30/2025): Train and support Australian Department of Defence personnel to use NLR software for model-based estimation of Li-ion battery lifetime using accelerated battery aging data collected by the Australian Department of Defence. Under separate DOE funding from 2019 to 2021, NLR enhanced its battery life-prediction software using machine learning algorithms to automate portions of the model-fitting process, requiring significantly less labor and expert judgment and also adding uncertainty quantification, increasing statistical rigor. Under Phase 2, NLR will customize NLR Software and provide it to AuDoD. NLR will enhance its NLR Model to capture aging modes of AuDoD's multi-cell modules, including cell-balancing effects. NLR will develop example single-cell and multi-cell models based on one AuDoD battery aging dataset. NLR will train AuDoD personnel on NLR Software. By the conclusion of the project, NLR will have provided AuDoD the training materials, a user manual and software needed to perform their own analysis of additional and/or future battery aging datasets.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Line Faults Classification Using Machine Learning on Three Phase Voltages Extracted from Large Dataset of PMU Measurements

An end-to-end supervised learning method is developed to classify transmission line faults in a twoyear field-recorded dataset that includes synchronized measurements of three-phase voltages recorded by 38 Phasor Measurement Units (PMU) sparsely located in in the US Western Grid interconnection. Statistical analysis is performed to extract features from this large dataset to train Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) classifiers initially. The training further leverages a simulated dataset from a synthetic grid with 12 PMUs to increase the number of faults of types infrequently seen in the field-recorded dataset. Training the classification models with the combined dataset resulted in a classification accuracy of 97.7%. This is a significant improvement over 89.7% to 92.5% accuracy obtained by relying on the field-recorded dataset alone.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mass Detection for Heavy-Duty Vehicles using Gaussian Belief Propagation

Predicting vehicle mass is critical to accurately estimate energy use and emissions of commercial trucks. However, data from vehicle telematics is often not at sufficient temporal resolution or accuracy for use in model-based detection methods. In this work, a new statistical mass prediction technique is described for heavy-duty vehicles that incorporates the use Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP) for probabilistic inference. Similar to Bayesian inference models, the GBP model typically requires less labeled training data than other contemporary machine learning techniques. First, a factor graph is constructed, and a set of Gaussian belief nodes with associated means and variances are fitted to the training data. To better handle noisy input data, the GBP mass prediction model utilizes a k-nearest factors (kNF) algorithm for probabilistic inference on unseen testing data. The proposed method is compared with a classical weighted k-nearest neighbors (kNN) regressor. This statistical kNF-GBP model works even with low-quantity, low-quality initial training data, while being capable of realtime mass estimation. Unlike the kNN regressor, the GBP model produces a measure of uncertainty with its predictions. The proposed method is validated using curve-sampled driving data collected from multiple cloud-connected Class 8 regional haul diesel trucks. Both the kNN regressor and the kNF-GBP mass prediction model were able to predict payload mass with coefficients of determination above 0.97 with minimal data preprocessing.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural network emulation of flow in heavy-ion collisions at intermediate energies

Applications of new techniques in machine learning are speeding up progress in research in various fields. In this work, we construct and evaluate a deep neural network (DNN) to be used within a Bayesian statistical framework as a faster and more reliable alternative to the Gaussian process (GP) emulator of an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions at intermediate beam energies. We found strong evidence of the DNN being able to emulate the IBUU simulator's prediction on the strengths of protons' directed and elliptical flow very efficiently even with small training datasets and with accuracy about ten times higher than the GP. Here, limitations of our present work and future improvements are also discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

FeederGAN: Synthetic Feeder Generation via Deep Graph Adversarial Nets

This paper presents a novel, automated, generative adversarial networks (GAN) based synthetic feeder generation mechanism, abbreviated as FeederGAN. FeederGAN digests real feeder models represented by directed graphs via a deep learning framework powered by GAN and graph convolutional networks (GCN). Information of a distribution feeder circuit is extracted from its model input files so that the device connectivity is mapped onto the adjacency matrix and the device characteristics, such as circuit types (i.e., 3-phase, 2-phase, and 1-phase) and component attributes (e.g., length and current ratings), are mapped onto the attribute matrix. Then, Wasserstein distance is used to optimize the GAN and GCN is used to discriminate the generated graphs from the actual ones. A greedy method based on graph theory is developed to reconstruct the feeder using the generated adjacency and attribute matrices. Furthermore, our results show that the GAN generated feeders resemble the actual feeder in both topology and attributes verified by visual inspection and by empirical statistics obtained from actual distribution feeders.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Abstract The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO 2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO 2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO 2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO 2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO 2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m −2 yr −1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO 2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Virkkala, Anna‐Maria↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning based x-ray spectrometer for high repetition rate characterization of betatron radiation

Betatron radiation produced from a laser-wakefield accelerator is a broadband, hard x-ray (>1 keV) source that has been used in a variety of applications in medicine, engineering, and fundamental science. Further development and optimization of stable, high repetition rate (HRR) (>1 Hz) betatron sources will provide a means to extend their application base to include single-shot dynamical measurements of ultrafast processes or dense materials. Recent advances in laser technology used in such experiments have enabled increases in shot-rate and system stability, providing improved statistical analysis and detailed parameter scans. However, unique challenges exist at high repetition rate, where data throughput and source optimization are now limited by diagnostic acquisition rates and analysis. Here, we present the development of a machine-learning algorithm for the real-time analysis of betatron radiation. We report on the fielding of this deep learning algorithm for online source characterization at the Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique's Advanced Laser Light Source. By fine-tuning an algorithm originally trained on a fully synthetic dataset using a subset of experimental data, the algorithm can predict the betatron critical energy with a percent error of 7.2 % with a reconstruction time of 1.5 ms, providing a valuable tool for real-time, multi-objective optimization at HRR.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning–Based Approach to Time-series Wave Identification in the Solar Wind

The Wind spacecraft has yielded several decades of high-resolution magnetic field data, a large fraction of which displays small-scale structures. In particular, the solar wind is full of wavelike fluctuations that appear in both the field magnitude and its components. The nature of these fluctuations can be tied to the properties of other structures in the solar wind, such as shocks, that have implications for the time evolution of the solar wind. As such, having a large collection of wave events would facilitate further study of the effects that these fluctuations have on solar wind evolution. Given the large volume of magnetic field data available, machine learning is the most practical approach to classifying the myriad small-scale structures observed. To this end, a subset of Wind data is labeled and used as a training set for a multibranch 1D convolutional neural network aimed at classifying circularly polarized wave modes. Using this algorithm, a preliminary statistical study of 1 yr of data is performed, yielding about 300,000 wave intervals out of about 5,000,000 solar wind intervals. The wave intervals come about more often in the fast solar wind and at higher temperatures, and the number of waves per day is highly periodic. This machine learning–based approach to wave detection has the potential to be a powerful, inexpensive way to catalog waves throughout decades of spacecraft data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Real-Time Health Monitoring for Gas Turbine Components Using Online Learning and High-Dimensional Data

Capital-intensive turbomachinery, such as gas turbines and combined cycle plants, are constantly being monitored for performance anomalies, faults, and physical degradation. Although these power-generating assets are equipped with hundreds of sensors, existing monitoring tools can only handle moderate-sized data. As a result, only a handful of aggregate metrics are used to monitor machine health. At the same time, developing advanced tools suitable for large datasets have been restricted by the lack of appropriate data. The objective of this proposal was to demonstrate a Big Data analytics framework for fault detection and diagnosis in gas turbine applications. We develop a predictive analytics framework methodology guided by these experimental data, industrial data from our collaborators, and physics-based models with engineering domain knowledge. Our analytics framework consists of four key components (1) a data curation process that addresses data storage, data quality assessments, and integrity checks, (2) a feature engineering component that utilizes statistical methods and transformation algorithms guided by physics-based models to extract high-fidelity fault features that can be leveraged for fault detection and classifying fault severities, (3) a Machine Learning-based fault detection and diagnostics algorithms for detecting operational and hardware faults in the combustion and the turbines section. We utilize two industry-class gas turbine component test rigs to generate first of its kind data for critical gas turbine faults with varying severity levels. Advanced gas turbine test facilities will be interrogated using state-of-the-art instrumentation techniques to build fault signatures and data trends for key combustor and turbine faults. Data generated from a combustor test rig (Georgia Tech) and a turbine test rig (Penn State) during both normal operation and with seeded faults serve as the basis for the Big Data sets. The test conditions in the two test facilities include common, critical events that occur in the operation. Utilizing the combustor test rig, we examine two common combustor faults: lean blowout and centerbody degradation. For the turbine section we develop analytic models for monitoring cooling faults in the gas turbine

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Real-Time Health Monitoring for Gas Turbine Components Using Online Learning and High-Dimensional Data (Final Report)

Capital-intensive turbomachinery, such as gas turbines and combined cycle plants, are constantly being monitored for performance anomalies, faults, and physical degradation. Although these power-generating assets are equipped with hundreds of sensors, existing monitoring tools can only handle moderate-sized data. As a result, only a handful of aggregate metrics are used to monitor machine health. At the same time, developing advanced tools suitable for large datasets have been restricted by the lack of appropriate data. The objective of this proposal was to demonstrate a Big Data analytics framework for fault detection and diagnosis in gas turbine applications. We develop a predictive analytics framework methodology guided by these experimental data, industrial data from our collaborators, and physics-based models with engineering domain knowledge. Our analytics framework consists of four key components: (1) a data curation process that addresses data storage, data quality assessments, and integrity checks, (2) a feature engineering component that utilizes statistical methods and transformation algorithms guided by physics-based models to extract high-fidelity fault features that can be leveraged for fault detection and classifying fault severities, (3) a Machine Learning-based fault detection and diagnostics algorithms for detecting operational and hardware faults in the combustion and the turbines section. We utilize two industry-class gas turbine component test rigs to generate first of its kind data for critical gas turbine faults with varying severity levels. Advanced gas turbine test facilities will be interrogated using state-of-the-art instrumentation techniques to build fault signatures and data trends for key combustor and turbine faults. Data generated from a combustor test rig (Georgia Tech) and a turbine test rig (Penn State) during both normal operation and with seeded faults serve as the basis for the Big Data sets. The test conditions in the two test facilities include common, critical events that occur in the operation. Utilizing the combustor test rig, we examine two common combustor faults: lean blowout and centerbody degradation. For the turbine section we develop analytic models for monitoring cooling faults in the gas turbine.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Criticality analysis of nuclear binding energy neural networks

Machine learning methods, in particular deep learning methods such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) with many layers, have become widespread and useful tools in nuclear physics. However, these ANNs are typically treated as ‘black boxes’, with their architecture (width, depth, and weight/bias initialization) and the training algorithm and parameters chosen empirically by optimizing learning based on limited exploration. We test a non-empirical approach to understanding and optimizing nuclear physics ANNs by adapting a criticality analysis based on renormalization group flows in terms of the hyperparameters for weight/bias initialization, training rates, and the ratio of depth to width. This treatment utilizes the statistical properties of neural network initialization to find a generating functional for network outputs at any layer, allowing for a path integral formulation of the ANN outputs as a Euclidean statistical field theory. We use a prototypical example to test the applicability of this approach: a simple ANN for nuclear binding energies. We find that with training using a stochastic gradient descent optimizer, the predicted criticality behavior is realized, and optimal performance is found with critical tuning. However, the use of an adaptive learning algorithm leads to somewhat superior results without concern for tuning and thus obscures the analysis. Nevertheless, the criticality analysis offers a way to look within the black box of ANNs, which is a first step towards potential improvements in network performance beyond using adaptive optimizers.

artificial neural network↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mathematical nuances of Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation

Abstract The fields of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have transformed almost every aspect of science and engineering. The excitement for AI/ML methods is in large part due to their perceived novelty, as compared to traditional methods of statistics, computation, and applied mathematics. But clearly, all methods in ML have their foundations in mathematical theories, such as function approximation, uncertainty quantification, and function optimization. Autonomous experimentation is no exception; it is often formulated as a chain of off-the-shelf tools, organized in a closed loop, without emphasis on the intricacies of each algorithm involved. The uncomfortable truth is that the success of any ML endeavor, and this includes autonomous experimentation, strongly depends on the sophistication of the underlying mathematical methods and software that have to allow for enough flexibility to consider functions that are in agreement with particular physical theories. We have observed that standard off-the-shelf tools, used by many in the applied ML community, often hide the underlying complexities and therefore perform poorly. In this paper, we want to give a perspective on the intricate connections between mathematics and ML, with a focus on Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation. Although the Gaussian process is a powerful mathematical concept, it has to be implemented and customized correctly for optimal performance. We present several simple toy problems to explore these nuances and highlight the importance of mathematical and statistical rigor in autonomous experimentation and ML. One key takeaway is that ML is not, as many had hoped, a set of agnostic plug-and-play solvers for everyday scientific problems, but instead needs expertise and mastery to be applied successfully. Graphical abstract

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Shower Reconstruction for Cross-Section Measurements with Photon(s) in the Final State at SBND

The Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) is a 112-ton liquid argon time projection chamber operating in the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab as part of the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program. Precise reconstruction of electromagnetic showers from photons and electrons is essential for searches for neutrino oscillations, cross-section measurements, and rare-process studies in liquid argon. In this poster, we present a unified set of SBND analyses enabled by the SPINE (Scalable Particle Imaging with Neural Embeddings) end-to-end machine-learning–based reconstruction framework, highlighting charged-current neutral pion (CC π⁰) production and neutral-current (NC) Δ radiative decay as complementary physics cases. Charged-current π⁰ interactions provide a high-statistics benchmark for validating photon reconstruction, constraining the electromagnetic energy scale, and modeling backgrounds to other cross-section measurements and BSM searches with one or more photons in the final state. We summarize progress toward the ongoing development of a CC π⁰ selection in SBND and, report on the current status of a search for NC resonant Δ production followed by radiative decay (Δ→Nγ) in SBND. This rare process, previously investigated in MicroBooNE, provides a stringent test of photon-only final-state reconstruction and is of interest in the context of the MiniBooNE low-energy excess. Together, these analyses demonstrate how modern machine-learning–based shower reconstruction enables a diverse and scalable physics program at SBND.

Chung, Seokju [Nevis Labs, Columbia U.]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning and ligand binding predictions: A review of data, methods, and obstacles

We report that computational predictions of ligand binding is a difficult problem, with more accurate methods being extremely computationally expensive. The use of machine learning for drug binding predictions could possibly leverage the use of biomedical big data in exchange for time-intensive simulations. This paper reviews current trends in the use of machine learning for drug binding predictions, data sources to develop machine learning algorithms, and potential problems that may lead to overfitting and ungeneralizable models. A few popular datasets that can be used to develop virtual high-throughput screening models are characterized using spatial statistics to quantify potential biases. We can see from evaluating some common benchmarks that good performance correlates with models with high-predicted bias scores and models with low bias scores do not have much predictive power. A better understanding of the limits of available data sources and how to fix them will lead to more generalizable models that will lead to novel drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electron Neutrino Selection for Neutrino Oscillation Searches in the SBN Program

The Short- Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Pprogram at Fermilab employs a near detector, SBND, and a far detector, ICARUS, to search for baseline-dependent changes to the measure muon neutrino disappearance and electron neutrino appearance and disappearance from the muon neutrino-dominated Booster Neutrino Beam flux. The use of the same liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) technology in both detectors and the same neutrino beam enables a systematically well-constrained oscillation measurement, by leveraging the high statistics of O(10 million) neutrino interactions expected at SBND through 2027 to constrain flux and cross-section systematics. In this poster, we present high-statistics, high-purity electron neutrino selections in SBND and ICARUS and related electron shower energy calibration measurements in SBND enabled by the SPINE deep learning-based particle reconstruction framework. Furthermore, we discuss how these samples can enable high sensitivity to '3+1' sterile neutrino oscillations in a combined fit accounting for systematic uncertainties and correlations.

Oza, Nupur [Nevis Labs, Columbia U.; Columbia U.]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Retrofit-ability: A supplementary metric to inform energy efficiency policies and programs

Building Energy Use Intensity (EUI) has been commonly used to facilitate policy makers and utilities to design energy efficacy programs and help building managers prioritize investment in building upgrades. Buildings with higher EUIs are usually chosen as better candidates for retrofit. Our study of nearly one hundred buildings in Seattle’s Building Tune Up Accelerator program and thousands of buildings in the Asset Score database reveals that EUI (after weather/location/use type normalization) alone is not the best indicator of a building’s potential to save energy, especially for those buildings in the mid-range (30-70 percentile EUI). In this paper, we introduce the concept of “retrofit-ability” — a building’s real potential to reduce its energy use cost-effectively — as a supplementary metric to inform energy efficiency policy and investment. Currently, such potential analyses are predicted for a building stock using prototypical building models or statistical data. However, typical buildings or general historical data may not sufficiently represent building configurations in a portfolio and predict their saving potentials. We utilized machine learning to investigate how key building characteristics (such as envelope attributes, HVAC type, location, use type, etc.) affect a building’s improvement potentials and developed a low-cost method to quantify such potentials for a portfolio of buildings. The supplementary perspective provided by “retrofit-ability” highlights which building assets correlate most with a building’s energy savings potential across region, building use type and more.

Wang, Na↗