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Numerical Investigation of Combustor-Turbine Interactions with a Two-Stage High-Pressure Turbine Including Cooling Airflows

Combustor–turbine interactions (CTIs) are investigated by performing three-dimensional unsteady simulations using a realistic combustor and high-pressure turbine (HPT) configurations from the Energy Efficient Engine (E3) program. To understand CTIs, we compare the numerically predicted flow fields from single-component simulations (Step 1: the combustor + the first-stage stator of turbine; Step 2: the two-stage HPT imposing the time-averaged flow solution from Step 1 as the inflow boundary condition) and a fully coupled combustor–turbine simulation (Step 3) at the sea-level takeoff (SLTO) condition. In addition to three previous simulations where the cooling airflows inside the HPT had been neglected for all Step 1, Step 2, and Step 3, two new simulations of Step 2 and Step 3 take into account the cooling airflows using the source team approach. In this approach, to mimic the cooling airflows, we impose the source term at a specific area of a cooling airflow hole at the solid surfaces without making a mesh of each hole. The objective of this study is twofold. One is to investigate the effect of the presence of the cooling airflows on the aerodynamics of the combustor and HPT as well as the HPT performance. The second is to perform a detailed comparison among the calculated flowfields by two different numerical schemes, the central-difference with the standard Jameson–Schmidt–Turkel (CD-JST) scheme and the AUSM scheme. There is a noticeable difference in the hot-streak distributions at the first-stage stator. In addition, depending on the choice of the numerical scheme and the presence of the cooling airflows, an occurrence of shock waves appearing at the first-stage stator is greatly influenced. Thus, this has a noticeable impact on the HPT performance. It is shown that the estimated turbine efficiencies from Step 3 are about 7 % less than the ones from Step 2.

Combustor-turbine interaction↗

Towards a Robust Sampling Approach: A Computational Review and Design

As pointed out in several other works, the estimation of the reliability of the electrical grid can not be conducted without the estimation of the stochastic phenomena of electicity demand and electricity production by variable renewable sources. Therefore, sampling procedures have become integral in the design of engineering structures and analysis. Commonly referred to as Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis or integration, the general objective of these procedures is to establish specifics about the uncertainty of an output characteristic of such an engineering system, given uncertainty about its input characteristics. These sampling procedures are applied in a context in which establishing such specifics cannot be performed through other means. Variance-reduction techniques are designed to lessen the variability among estimators to estimate statistics of those output uncertainties. Importance-sampling techniques, on the other hand, are designed to reduce the number of samples needed to estimate a particular statistic—e.g., a tail probability. The combination of these approaches can reduce the computational burden considerably for a particular estimator and statistic. Importance sampling—geared and designed as it is toward improving a particular estimator—suffers, unfortunately, from the unintended consequence of reducing the performance of other estimators in terms of their variance. The objective of this paper is to offer an alternative sampling procedure where this variance does not grow unacceptably large for a suite of estimators. Moreover, it is anticipated that, with additional knowledge of how an engineering output characteristic responds to its input characteristics, tuning parameters of the input’s sampling procedure can be set to improve the output characteristic’s estimation. This work proves the effectiveness of the suggested alternative approach. Such positive outcome will lead to a decrease of the computational burden of performing stochastic optimization of integrated energy systems (e.g., components dispatch, and portfolio composition). In particular, capturing the contribution to the overall system cost of rare and unlikely events and patterns of the electricity demand and production will become less computationally expensive. This is due to the fact that the approach demonstrated here will allow the sampling of those rare occurrences more frequently without misrepresenting their probabilistic impacts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH 4 ) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH 4 are continuing to increase, making CH 4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Assessing the relative importance of CH 4 in comparison to CO 2 is complicated by its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and atmospheric growth rate variations over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH 4 sources and from the destruction of CH 4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Surface Time-Variable Gravity Signals and Possible Sources Including Core Mass Flow

Over two decades of geodetic satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) data show that the variation of the Earth's oblateness parameter J2 has a clear seasonal signal of amplitude of about 3e-10 and a secular decrease of about -2.8e-11/year, superimposed on some interesting interannual fluctuations. Physically, any change in mass distribution or/inside the Earth will be reflected in the time-variable gravity signal obtained outside the Earth, according to Newton s gravitational law. Therefore, such signal contains contributions from all geophysical sources that redistribute mass, on all temporal and spatial scales, including those from the core. Besides Earth rotation and geomagnetic field variations, the time-variable gravity also contains information linking Earth surface observations with internal core dynamical processes. The time scales of the gravity signal are critical in helping differentiate different contributions. The atmosphere and hydrosphere are responsible for the seasonal and much of the interannual and intraseasoanl fluctuations, while the secular trend is due mainly to the post-glacial rebound but possibly core mass flow. To estimate the latter effect, we use our MoSST (Modular, Scalable, Self-consistent, Three-dimensional) core dynamics model to forward simulate the core flow, and density variation due to the core convection. Our results suggest that, when upward continued to the surface, the J2 component of the core mass redistribution can reach an overall amplitude of e-11/year, approaching the SLR detectability and significant in geophysical terms. We also find a general westward drift of the mass flow, with a speed comparable to that of the geomagnetic westward drift.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

MODIS On-Board Blackbody Function and Performance

Two MODIS instruments are currently in orbit, making continuous global observations in visible to long-wave infrared wavelengths. Compared to heritage sensors, MODIS was built with an advanced set of on-board calibrators, providing sensor radiometric, spectral, and spatial calibration and characterization during on-orbit operation. For the thermal emissive bands (TEB) with wavelengths from 3.7 m to 14.4 m, a v-grooved blackbody (BB) is used as the primary calibration source. The BB temperature is accurately measured each scan (1.47s) using a set of 12 temperature sensors traceable to NIST temperature standards. The onboard BB is nominally operated at a fixed temperature, 290K for Terra MODIS and 285K for Aqua MODIS, to compute the TEB linear calibration coefficients. Periodically, its temperature is varied from 270K (instrument ambient) to 315K in order to evaluate and update the nonlinear calibration coefficients. This paper describes MODIS on-board BB functions with emphasis on on-orbit operation and performance. It examines the BB temperature uncertainties under different operational conditions and their impact on TEB calibration and data product quality. The temperature uniformity of the BB is also evaluated using TEB detector responses at different operating temperatures. On-orbit results demonstrate excellent short-term and long-term stability for both the Terra and Aqua MODIS on-board BB. The on-orbit BB temperature uncertainty is estimated to be 10mK for Terra MODIS at 290K and 5mK for Aqua MODIS at 285K, thus meeting the TEB design specifications. In addition, there has been no measurable BB temperature drift over the entire mission of both Terra and Aqua MODIS.

Xiaoxiong, Xiong↗

Temporal Dependence of Chromosomal Aberration on Radiation Quality and Cellular Genetic Background

Radiation induced cancer risks are driven by genetic instability. It is not well understood how different radiation sources induce genetic instability in cells with different genetic background. Here we report our studies on genetic instability, particularly chromosome instability using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), in human primary lymphocytes, normal human fibroblasts, and transformed human mammary epithelial cells in a temporal manner after exposure to high energy protons and Fe ions. The chromosome spread was prepared 48 hours, 1 week, 2 week, and 1 month after radiation exposure. Chromosome aberrations were analyzed with whole chromosome specific probes (chr. 3 and chr. 6). After exposure to protons and Fe ions of similar cumulative energy (??), Fe ions induced more chromosomal aberrations at early time point (48 hours) in all three types of cells. Over time (after 1 month), more chromosome aberrations were observed in cells exposed to Fe ions than in the same type of cells exposed to protons. While the mammary epithelial cells have higher intrinsic genetic instability and higher rate of initial chromosome aberrations than the fibroblasts, the fibroblasts retained more chromosomal aberration after long term cell culture (1 month) in comparison to their initial frequency of chromosome aberration. In lymphocytes, the chromosome aberration frequency at 1 month after exposure to Fe ions was close to unexposed background, and the chromosome aberration frequency at 1 month after exposure to proton was much higher. In addition to human cells, mouse bone marrow cells isolated from strains CBA/CaH and C57BL/6 were irradiated with proton or Fe ions and were analyzed for chromosome aberration at different time points. Cells from CBA mice showed similar frequency of chromosome aberration at early and late time points, while cells from C57 mice showed very different chromosome aberration rate at early and late time points. Our results suggest that relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of radiation are different for different radiation sources, for different cell types, and for the same cell type with different genetic background at different times after radiation exposure. Caution must be taken in using RBE value to estimate biological effects from radiation exposure.

Lu, Tao↗

Williston Basin CORE-CM Initiative Final Report

The University of North Dakota Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) is leading the Williston Basin Carbon Ore, Rare Earth, and Critical Minerals (CORE-CM) Initiative to drive the expansion and transformation of coal and coal-based resource usage within the Williston Basin to produce rare-earth elements (REEs), CMs, and nonfuel carbon-based products (CBPs). This project is the first phase in a long-term program and set the stage for future work by assessing resource, market, technology, and infrastructure knowledge; identifying knowledge gaps; developing a series of plans to be carried out in future work; and initiating stakeholder engagement. Composed of several tasks, the project sought to identify, characterize, and assess several necessary aspects vital to make this future work a reality. The project’s fundamental task was to characterize the Williston Basin CORE-CM resources. Over 2500 samples from multiple sources were utilized to begin the assessment. Several locations were identified in western North Dakota where sample analysis identified the total REE (TREE) concentration as being over 500 parts per million (ppm), which is at a concentration level that would be suitable to consider for mining and extraction. Current operating coal mines have sufficient concentrations of TREEs for consideration. However, the current data across the basin are still not adequate to fully characterize REE and CM content nor give reliable estimates of the total resource potential. Waste stream reuse was also considered, and several streams were identified which ranged from potential energy sources to chemicals to material wastes. This includes streams that result from oil and gas production. These streams are not fully characterized, and further data are needed before they can be accurately assessed. Infrastructure within the Williston Basin is suitable for expansion of a new industry to mine, extract, and concentrate REEs and CMs. The development of this industry will not only preserve many existing jobs in the coal-mining industry but produce many new jobs. The supply chain for REEs and CMs is currently controlled outside of the United States in nations such as China, but the potential to develop the supply chain within the basin is considered possible. Processing of the mined materials for REEs and CMs needs further research. The technology and knowhow exist outside of the United States, and within the country much of the knowledge has been lost and must be regained. To develop the supply chain and regain lost processing technology, the creation of technology innovation centers (TICs) is crucial. The Williston Basin contains several similar centers and entrepreneurial assistance for other industries that can be applied in the development of REE and CM innovation centers. Education to develop the new skill sets required is also needed. Outreach is important for the development of the REE and CM industry within the basin. Understanding throughout federal and state governments, state agencies, industry, and resource end users is vital for the industry to form and grow. Through this project these groups have been contacted through bulletins, presentations, webinars, and annual symposiums. The report is a summary of the work conducted and throughout refers to a series of appendixes which contain more thorough and specific information about each section.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Improved Satellite Retrievals of NO2 and SO2 over the Canadian Oil Sands and Comparisons with Surface Measurements

Satellite remote sensing is increasingly being used to monitor air quality over localized sources such as the Canadian oil sands. Following an initial study, significantly low biases have been identified in current NO2 and SO2 retrieval products from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite sensor over this location resulting from a combination of its rapid development and small spatial scale. Air mass factors (AMFs) used to convert line-of-sight "slant" columns to vertical columns were re-calculated for this region based on updated and higher resolution input information including absorber profiles from a regional-scale (15 km × 15 km resolution) air quality model, higher spatial and temporal resolution surface reflectivity, and an improved treatment of snow. The overall impact of these new Environment Canada (EC) AMFs led to substantial increases in the peak NO2 and SO2 average vertical column density (VCD), occurring over an area of intensive surface mining, by factors of 2 and 1.4, respectively, relative to estimates made with previous AMFs. Comparisons are made with long-term averages of NO2 and SO2 (2005-2011) from in situ surface monitors by using the air quality model to map the OMI VCDs to surface concentrations. This new OMI-EC product is able to capture the spatial distribution of the in situ instruments (slopes of 0.65 to 1.0, correlation coefficients of greater than 0.9). The concentration absolute values from surface network observations were in reasonable agreement, with OMI-EC NO2 and SO2 biased low by roughly 30%. Several complications were addressed including correction for the interference effect in the surface NO2 instruments and smoothing and clear-sky biases in the OMI measurements. Overall these results highlight the importance of using input information that accounts for the spatial and temporal variability of the location of interest when performing retrievals.

surface concentration↗

Many-isocenter optimization for robotic radiotherapy

Despite significant dosimetric gains, clinical implementation of the 4π non-coplanar radiotherapy on the widely available C-arm gantry system is hindered by limited clearance, and the need to perform complex coordinated gantry and couch motion. A robotic radiotherapy platform would be conducive to such treatment but a new conflict between field size and MLC modulation resolution needs to be managed for versatile applications. This study investigates the dosimetry and delivery efficiency of purposefully creating many isocenters to achieve simultaneously high MLC modulation resolution and large tumor coverage. An integrated optimization framework was proposed for simultaneous beam orientation optimization (BOO), isocenter selection, and fluence map optimization (FMO). The framework includes a least-square dose fidelity objective, a total variation term for regularizing the fluence smoothness, and a group sparsity term for beam selection. A minimal number of isocenters were identified for efficient target coverage. Colliding beams excluded, high-resolution small-field 4π intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatment plans with 50 cm source-to-isocenter distance (SID-50) on 10 Head and Neck (H&N) cancer patients were compared with low-resolution large-field plans with 100 cm SID (SID-100). With the same or better target coverage, the average reduction of [Dmean, Dmax] of 20-beam SID-50 plans from 20-beam SID-100 plans were [2.09 Gy, 1.19 Gy] for organs at risk (OARs) overall, [3.05 Gy, 0.04 Gy] for parotid gland, [3.62 Gy, 5.19 Gy] for larynx, and [3.27 Gy, 1.10 Gy] for mandible. R50 and integral dose were reduced by 5.3% and 9.6%, respectively. Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed significant difference (p < 0.05) in planning target volume (PTV) homogeneity, PTV Dmax, R50, Integral dose, and OAR Dmean and Dmax. The estimated delivery time of 20-beam [SID-50, SID-100] plans were [19, 18] min and [14, 9] min, assuming 5 fractions and 30 fractions, respectively. Finally, with clinically acceptable delivery efficiency, many-isocenter optimization is dosimetrically desirable for treating large targets with high modulation resolution on the robotic platform.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Rainout lifetimes of highly soluble aerosols and gases as inferred from simulations with a general circulation model

The rainout-determined lifetimes of highly soluble particulate and gaseous atmospheric compounds are investigated using general circulation model simulations in which removal is explicitly calculated in terms of the local, model-produced precipitation rates. The calculations indicate that because of the episodic and asymmetric nature of rainout, species' lifetimes depend not only on the amount of precipitation but also on the characteristics of the precipitation regime (such as duration and frequency of the precipitation events) and on the direction of the tracer main flow (determined by the species' average mixing ratio gradient). For this reason, averaged rainout lifetimes of tracers flowing downstream from the stratosphere are found to differ substantially from those of tracers of surface origin flowing upward or tracers of a more ubiquitous tropospheric source. These results imply that the use of a first-order parameterization to simulate rainout in a photochemical model that does not explicitly calculate precipitation can be inadequate in representing this process. A computationally efficient parameterization that includes the effects of intermittence and asymmetry of rainout is proposed, and it is shown how this parameterization can be used to estimate rainout-determined tropospheric residence times from observational data sets. A review of published estimates of submicron aerosol tropospheric residence times based on observations shows that these are consistent with the model results.

Giorgi, Filippo↗

Outgassing asymmetry of periodic comet Encke. I - Apparitions 1924-1984

A concept of a collimated flow of ejecta from a discrete source (vent) on the surface of a rotating cometary nucleus is applied to P/Encke, based on positional observations of its sunward fanlike coma at 13 apparitions between 1924 and 1984. The major results include a finding that the observations are consistent with an invariable position of the rotation pole during the 60 yr (yielding an obliquity of 70 deg), although this is not to be interpreted as an indication that the nucleus is not precessing. Two vents are identified on the nucleus surface: one on the northern hemisphere at a latitude of +55 deg, of an estimated sublimitation area of 0.4 sq km, which is active along the inbound leg of the comet's orbit until a few days preperihelion and again beginning several weeks postperihelion; the other on the southern hemisphere at -75 deg, of an estimated area of 0.6 sq km, whose activity prevails in the intervening time. There appears to be a significant difference between the two regions in terms of dust content in their emissions.

Sekanina, Z.↗

Reproductive and leaf litterfall fluxes in forest ecosystem sites globally (1950-2022)

Forest allocation of net primary productivity (NPP) to reproduction is poorly quantified globally, despite its critical role in forest regeneration and a well-supported trade-off with allocation to growth. Although field measurements of total NPP are rare, our work finds that a proxy for reproductive carbon allocation constructed from leaf (L) and reproductive (R) litterfall fluxes, R/(R+L), is strongly correlated with R/NPP, facilitating analysis across a wide range of sites where biometric estimates of NPP are not available (R² = 0.85; Hanbury-Brown et al., 2022, Ward et al., in prep). To investigate relationships between ecosystem-scale reproductive allocation (RA) and climate, soil fertility, and stand age gradients, we conducted a literature search and synthesized 824 observations of annual average leaf and reproductive litterfall fluxes across forest sites globally. The zip file includes 1) a folder Data/ containing the litterfall data ("GlobalForestRA_data.csv") and metadata ("GlobalForestRA_metadata.doc") files. The data file includes geographic coordinates, long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation (1970-2000, extracted from WorldClim2.1), leaf and reproductive litterfall fluxes, sampling interval and protocols, forest characteristics (dominant leaf morphology, information pertaining to forest age and successional stage, and disturbance history) and soil properties (% sand, %silt, %clay, total phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and pH) extracted from SoilGrids250 and from on-site measurements, where available. The metadata file contains information about each variable reported in the data file, including data sources, processing methods, and all references. The Data folder contains two additional files used to create Figure 1; these are described in greater detail in the README.2) R scripts GloalForestRA_analysis.r and GlobalForestRA_SI.r and a folder /Functions used to produce results, figures, and tables in the manuscript Ward et al. (in press)3) a README file describing how the data and R scripts can be used to reproduce statistical results, figures, and tables found in the manuscript. Ward et al. (in press)This repository can also be found at: https://github.com/r-ward/Global_Analysis_ForestRA.Ward, R.E., Zhang-Zheng, H. Aernethy, K., Adu-Bredu, S., Arroyo, L., Bailey, A. et al. (in press). Forest age rivals climate to explain reproductive allocation patterns in forest ecosystems globally. Ecology Letters. Hanbury-Brown, A.R., Ward, R.E. & Kueppers, L.M. (2022). Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward. New Phytol., 235, 20–40.Ward et al. (2025), Forest age rivals climate to explain reproductive allocation patterns in forest ecosystems globally, in prep.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Downscaling of SoilMERGE in the United States Southern Great Plains

SoilMERGE (SMERGE) is a root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) product that covers the entire continental United States and spans 1978 to 2019. Machine learning techniques, Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gradient Boost (GBoost) downscaled SMERGE to spatial resolutions straddling the field scale domain (100 to 3000 m). Study area was northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. The coarse resolution of SMERGE (0.125 degree) limits this product’s utility. To validate downscaled results in situ data from four sources were used that included: United States Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observatory, United States Climate Reference Network (USCRN), Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN), and Soil moisture Sensing Controller and oPtimal Estimator (SoilSCAPE). In addition, RZSM retrievals from NASA’s Airborne Microwave Observatory of Subcanopy and Surface (AirMOSS) campaign provided a nearly spatially continuous comparison. Three periods were examined: era 1 (2016 to 2019), era 2 (2012 to 2015), and era 3 (2003 to 2007). During eras 1 and 2, RF outperformed XGBoost and GBoost, whereas during era 3 no model dominated. Performance was better during eras 1 and 2 as opposed to the pre-L band era 3. Improvements across all eras, regions, and models realized from downscaling included an increase in correlation from 0.03 to 0.42 and a decrease in ub RMSE from -0.0005 to -0.0118 m 3 /m 3 . This study demonstrates the feasibility of SMERGE downscaling opening the prospect for the development of a long-term RZSM dataset at a more desirable field-scale resolution with the potential to support diverse hydrometeorological and agricultural applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Summary Paper: An Initial Heliostat Supply Chain Analysis

This paper summarizes the prior analysis, key findings, and recommendations from the published report titled “Initial Heliostat Supply Chain Analysis” [1]. Globally, the growing demand for concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies, primarily for electricity generation plants has been met with supply chains primarily composed of plentiful commodity materials such as steel, aluminum, and glass. Often the commodity materials can be sourced in the domestic market where power plant will be constructed. Although specialty components are required for CSP solar fields —including mirror panels used for heliostat applications—these specialty components constitute about 30-50% of total system installed costs [2]. Only a few companies and countries, including the United States, have developed the capacity to supply such specialty components. The U.S. heliostat supply chain at present is comprised of few companies (e.g., CSP developers), component suppliers, and is its infancy. By 2035, with current and aggressive solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity expansions, there is the potential for 500,000–1,500,000 direct and indirect jobs in the areas of manufacturing, installation and development, and operations and maintenance (O&M) [3]. Utilizing the CSP capacity estimations the recent NREL report [4], the construction of 39 gigawatts (GW) of CSP (assuming mainly power tower) in the U.S. could lead to approximately 195,000 manufacturing, construction, and O&M jobs. This does not include the longer-term jobs and economic impact (e.g., taxes from plant operations staff) from operating the plants once constructed. It is recommended that further CSP component and system supply chain analysis and modelling be undertaken.

Kurup, Parthiv (ORCID:0000000217356703)↗

Southern Hemisphere Carbon Monoxide Inferannual Variability Observed by Terra/Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT)

Biomass burning is an annual occurrence in the tropical southern hemisphere (SH) and represents a major source of regional pollution. Vegetation fires emit carbon monoxide (CO), which due to its medium lifetime is an excellent tracer of tropospheric transport. CO is also one of the few tropospheric trace gases currently observed from satellite and this provides long-term global measurements. In this paper, we use the 5 year CO data record from the Measurement Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument to examine the inter-annual variability of the SH CO loading and show how this relates to climate conditions which determine the intensity of fire sources. The MOPITT observations show an annual austral springtime peak in the SH zonal CO loading each year with dry-season biomass burning emissions in S. America, southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and northwestern Australia. Although fires in southern Africa and S. America typically produce the greatest amount of CO, the most significant inter-annual variation is due to varying fire activity and emissions from the Maritime Continent and northern Australia. We find that this variation in turn correlates well with the El Nino Southern Oscillation precipitation index. Between 2000 and 2005, emissions were greatest in late 2002 and an inverse modeling of the MOPITT data using the MOZART chemical transport model estimates the southeast Asia regional fire source for the year August 2002 to September 2003 to be 52 Tg CO. Comparison of the MOPITT retrievals and NOAA surface network measurements indicate that the latter do not fully capture the inter-annual variability or the seasonal range of the CO zonal average concentration due to biases associated with atmospheric and geographic sampling.

Edwards, D. P.↗

Method for the Collection, Gravimetric and Chemical Analysis of Nonvolatile Residue (NVR) on Surfaces

Nonvolatile residue (NVR), sometimes referred to as molecular contamination is the term used for the total composition of the inorganic and high boiling point organic components in particulates and molecular films deposited on critical surfaces surrounding space structures, with the particulate and NVR contamination originating primarily from pre-launch operations. The "nonvolatile" suggestion from the terminology NVR implies that the collected residue will not experience much loss under ambient conditions. NVR has been shown to have a dramatic impact on the ability to perform optical measurements from platforms based in space. Such contaminants can be detected early by the controlled application of various detection techniques and contamination analyses. Contamination analyses are the techniques used to determine if materials, components, and subsystems can be expected to meet the performance requirements of a system. Of particular concern is the quantity of NVR contaminants that might be deposited on critical payload surfaces from these sources. Subsequent chemical analysis of the contaminant samples by infrared spectroscopy and gas chromatography mass spectrometry identifies the components, gives semi-quantitative estimates of contaminant thickness, indicates possible sources of the NVR, and provides guidance for effective cleanup procedures. In this report, a method for the collection and determination of the mass of NVR was generated by the authors at NASA Langley Research Center. This report describes the method developed and implemented for collecting NVR contaminants, and procedures for gravimetric and chemical analysis of the residue obtained. The result of this NVR analysis collaboration will help pave the way for Langley's ability to certify flight hardware outgassing requirements in support of flight projects such as Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III), Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), Materials International Space Station Experiment - X (MISSE-X), and Doppler Aerosol Wind Lidar (DAWN).

Gordon, Keith↗

The Analysis of Using Satellite Soil Moisture Observations for Flood Detection, Evaluating Over the Thailand’s Great Flood of 2011

A flood monitoring and warning system provides critical information that can protect property and save lives. A basin-scale flood monitoring system requires an effective observation platform that offers extensive ground coverage of flood conditions, low latency, and high spatiotemporal resolution. While satellite imagery offers substantial spatial flood extent in detail due to its high spatial resolution, the coarse temporal resolution and cloud obstruction limit its near real-time application. Daily soil moisture data derived from satellite sensors at a scale of a few km can be used to monitor extreme wet surface conditions arising in flood occurrences. This study analyses the flood detection capabilities of several sources of soil moisture information, including the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission (SMOS), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E), the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) on MetOp, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), and the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM). In addition to soil moisture, the analysis includes measurements of surface reflectance from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), precipitation measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and terrestrial water storage estimates from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) as proxies for flood inundations. The analysis was conducted over the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPB) in Thailand, where the Great Flood of 2011 led to one of the most significant economic losses in the country's history. Satellite-derived soil moisture exhibits a stronger correlation with the flood inundations than the precipitation, model-derived soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage data. SMOS soil moisture observation agrees best with the MODIS-derived flood extent/occurrence, both in terms of spatial distribution and timing, and providing approximated flood lead-time of one week or longer. A neural network constructed from SMOS and MODIS data is used to predict flood intensity/occurrence (given soil moisture input) with a predicted time window from eight days to thirty-two days. The short-term prediction (e.g., eight days) achieves the highest accuracy with an averaged recovery rate of approximately 60% (correlation coefficient). This study's results suggest a potential application of satellite soil moisture data in assisting flood monitoring and warning systems.

Satellite soil moisture↗

Performance of JAXA’s SGLI standard ocean color products for oceanic to coastal waters: chlorophyll a concentration and light absorption coefficients of colored dissolved organic matter

We present the performance of JAXA’s SGLI standard algorithms for estimating chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration and the light absorption coefcients of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) using recently compiled high-quality data obtained from oceanic to coastal waters. Prior to the evaluation of the algorithms, we frst compare two forward models (Gordon et al. in J Geophys Res 93(D9):10909-10924, 1988: G88 and Park and Ruddick in Appl Opt 44(7):1236–1249, 2005: PR05) using a wide range of inherent optical properties (IOPs) to (1) examine if the water refectance is appropriately reproduced and (2) correct measured refectance in terms of its bidirectionality. Based on a good reproducibility of water refectance using the PR05, the optimized IOPs are further used for explaining errors in estimates of chl a concentration and CDOM absorption when using the SGLI, the GSM (Maritorena et al. in Appl Opt 41:2705–2714, 2002), and the QAA (Lee et al. in Appl Opt 41:5755, 2002) inversion algorithms. Results show that the mean error for estimating chl a concentration using the SGLI algorithm is 110% for our dataset. Although this error is lower than that of the GSM and the QAA algorithms, a signifcant underestimate at chl a higher than 2.0 mg m−3 is observed, which is further shown by independent match-up analyses. Another SGLI CDOM product includes the mean error of 50% and shows deviation at high CDOM range (>1.0 per m). A similar trend is observed for the GSM but not for the QAA when a global relationship of CDOM to colored detrital matter is applied. The sources of errors are discussed for potentially improving the retrievals

Second-generation GLobal Imager (SGLI)↗