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DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

LDRD Macromolcule Radiolysis Poster

Moving toward a circular carbon economy depends on enabling reuse of carbon-based macromolecules and increased recycling of waste products into higher value products. Macromolecules are challenging to valorize into products easily converted into liquid fuel or chemical feedstocks, due to their large and sometimes heterogeneous network of polymeric bonds. The novel aspect of this project is to show a proof of principle that radiolysis of macromolecules using “waste” radiation from energy production in the presence of radical capping donors presents an attractive opportunity to break down complex macromolecules into smaller molecules while controlling re-polymerization. This approach offers a new, cost-efficient way to utilize “waste” radiation and heat byproducts of nuclear energy production to convert a simple mixture of complex molecules into a complex mixture of small molecules, to be utilized as an energy source by the fuel industry, or to create value-added feedstocks for new polymers or commodity chemicals. Ionizing radiation can be harnessed to convert energy to molecules, adding value to low-value macromolecules as they are broken down into smaller, more easily separated feedstocks or fuels to be converted to a value-added product. This project will test 2 hypotheses. Hypothesis 1: Macromolecular materials that comprise biomass and coal or other macromolecules can be infused with radical capping donors (RCDs), and gamma irradiation of the resulting mixtures will produce ensembles of lower-molecular weight chemicals that can be more easily separated. If this expectation is realized, the conversion chemistry can be optimized by adjusting the feedstock composition, irradiation time, and choice of RCD.

02 - PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic, Adaptive, Systems and Materials: Complex, Simple and Emergent Behaviors

This program has been funded by DoE/BES for twenty years. It has moved into and out of various subjects as it has developed, but it has retained its focus on complexity and complex systems. The project has evolved in the following way: Self-Assembly and Biomimetic Self-Assembly: All self-assembling systems depend upon a minimum of two types of interaction: a repulsion and an attraction. For the familiar molecular systems, attractive interactions are typically hydrogen bonds and electrostatic interactions. Repulsive interactions include steric effects, hydrophobic effects (in biological systems), and charge-charge repulsion. We have expanded this repertoire to include surface interactions, magnetic interactions, and others. I list these systems in the order in which we have explored them: i) A key emphasis in current work is in understanding how the movement of ions in a magnetic field (the Lorentz effect) interacts with catalytic systems. We have demonstrated that an acceleration in rate of reduction of CO 2 to CO can be accomplished by applying an external magnetic field. This acceleration is largely due to the application of the Lorentz effect on mass transport at the catalyst’s surface. ii) We have also extensively explored the influence of electrostatics, as exhibited in self-assembling systems, by tribocharging. iii) Another key system involves surface tension effects; examples include interactions between heavy particles floating at a liquid-air interface, and interacting by changes in surface area; interactions of bubbles and bubble rafts, behaviors of bubble trains in microfluidic networks, and behaviors of microorganisms in constraining environments. iv) This work has intentionally de-emphasized biological systems; but it does include some work on protein-ligand interactions and interactions among microorganisms. v) We have also explored applications of some of these effects, these explorations include bubble rafts as diffraction gratings, exploration of the structures that can be obtained by tribocharging and uses of these structures in exploring nucleation and melting of crystals. vi) Although not a major focus of this work, several other topics have emerged and offer opportunities for future work. These include the behavior of bubble trains and bubble rafts in microfluidic systems. A particularly interesting example is the formation of bubble trains that repeat in the alteration of large and small bubbles according to rules we do not presently understand, but are uniquely large-period oscillating systems. These systems offer a new route into understanding the instabilities of the type represented by oscillations. vii) We have also begun exploratory projects on magnetic levitation (especially to determine molecular density), and information storage (in molecules). Magnetic Levitation: Self-assembling and biomimetic systems require both attraction and repulsion. We have used electrostatics (tribocharging), interfacial free-energies (surface tension and related forces) and others. Potential uses include reconfigurable diffraction gratings and liquid lenses; exploration of mechanisms in tribocharging; tunneling in EGaIn junctions; and bubble trains (especially in micro-fluidic systems). Examples of systems representing these topics is included in the following papers: Complexity: Disks rotating at a water-air interface; Benard-Marangoni effects; Vortex-Crystals from spinning magnetic disks (Marangoni effects); EGaIn Electrode to study quantum tunneling; Self-Assembly of electrostatically-charged metallic spheres (electrets); Dynamically reconfigurable lens; Using computational designs of ligands for enzymes; Electrostatic self-assembly by tribocharging; Monodisperse bubble trains in microchannel systems; Inverted dripping faucet; Flames; Printing of micro-organisms to regenerate the “ink” of printing device; Using micro-organisms to move loads (“microoxen”); Motion of bacterial swarms near surfaces; Making monodisperse particles in microfluidic systems; Coding/decoding of information stored in droplet trains in microfluidic networks; Magnetic levitation; and Information storage. i) Tribocharging. The change in focus of this work on electrets from the fundamentals of charging to applications of these materials in studying self-assembly using electrostatic interactions. ii) Bubbles in Microchannels. The realization that systems of bubbles in microchannels represented a major opportunity to study complexity in a very tractable system, and the development of a semi-quantitative theory of this subject. iii) Flames. The growth of “flames” remains an exploratory subject for the research, although their currently relatively little active work involving it ongoing. iv) Systems with Microorganisms. The removal of work in biological systems from this project. Based on work supported in this program, we now have a significant project on the development of microfluidic tools for studying C. elegans (a nematode), but this work was not appropriate for a program focused on complexity, and we developed separate support for it. (It is, however, an example of successful seeding of a new area by BES.) The work on electrets has gone through a period in which a part of the program was the subject of a MURI; the focus of this work was to develop materials that did not charge electrostatically on friction or contact. The MURI is now over, and the work on dynamic self-assembly (supported by BES) is the major focus. “Flames” has also enjoyed synergistic support, in terms of a project supported by DARPA on flame suppression (in the absence of extinguishing agents, using acoustic and electrostatic interactions). This work was helpful in understanding some of the basics of flames, but is entirely distinct from the BES focus in complexity. A growing interest is in the Lorentz effect. The Lorentz effect is the force exerted on charged particles (electrons, ions, charged molecules) when they move through a perpendicular magnetic field. The Lorentz effect is almost ubiquitous in modern technology: examples of applications include electric motors, dynamos, cathode ray tubes, many batteries, and most systems that control electrical currents with magnetic forces. We have begun to explore the Lorentz effect in electrochemical systems and heterogeneous catalytic systems involving charged organic species and inorganic ions. This work is still at an early stage, but initial studies that Lorentz effects can be large when ions move through magnetic fields, or magnetic fields move in the presence of ions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Establishing a Technical Assistance Network to Build Capacity in Southwest Alaska (Southwest Alaska Energy Network - Final Report)

The Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference (SWAMC) is a non-profit regional membership economic development organization that represents the Aleutian/Pribilof Islands, Bristol Bay, and Kodiak regions of southwest Alaska. SWAMC applied for the DOE-OIE Establishment of an Inter-Tribal Technical Assistance Energy Providers Network grant FOA to work with our partners to provide energy planning and project development technical assistance. The project team was made up of SWAMC, three regional organizations, a management consulting firm, and a panel of technical consultants. SWAMC sub-contracted with the three Alaska Native regional non-profit organizations – Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association (APIA), Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA), and Kodiak Area Native Association (KANA) – to fund full or partial Regional Energy Coordinator (REC) positions. The project period ran from September 2016 to March 2020. The project goal was to help southwest Alaska regional tribal partners and communities to develop efficient and financially sustainable structures for identifying and developing energy projects that enhance community resiliency and energy sustainability. This project established energy coordinators and management structures in the Aleutian, Bristol Bay, and Kodiak regions to expand technical assistance capacity of regional residents; demonstrate this capacity by advancing energy efficiency, heat, and power supply projects; and secure long-term funding commitments to establish a sustained technical assistance structure. The project team expanded technical assistance capacity of energy coordinators and regional stakeholders in several ways: by providing funding for the SWAMC project manager to attend three Office of Indian Energy trainings; for energy coordinators to attend numerous energy conferences; for utility clerks from several villages to receive one-on-one reporting training on Alaska’s Power Cost Equalization electric subsidy program; and for the Kodiak REC to complete the Arctic Remote Energy Networks Academy and NREL’s Executive Energy Leadership Academy. The energy coordinators demonstrated and shared their increased capacity by hosting several public events: SWAMC hosted two full-day energy workshops in February 2017 and 2018; the Kodiak REC hosted seven Energy Committee meetings for Kodiak stakeholders and gave several presentations at other events; and SWAMC and BBNA organized a Bristol Bay Regional Energy Visioning Session in May 2019. The project team created platforms to both share and request information to involve energy stakeholders in this project, including an energy website, a Facebook group, a periodic newsletter, surveys, mass emails, and paper mailers. An increase in regional capacity was demonstrated through several grant awards, including a $1.2 million USDA grant for Akhiok for an electric distribution infrastructure replacement; an AHFC Kickstarter grant for Aleknagik to audit 2 Tribal and 3 City buildings; and installation of an Air Source Heat Pump demonstration project in Atka. Two communities and one region – Ouzinkie (May 2017), Ugashik (July 2017), and the Bristol Bay region (May 2019) – utilized DOE’s technical assistance services to hold Strategic Energy Planning sessions with NREL and DOE facilitation assistance. And in early 2018, SWAMC established a parallel program, funded through a USDA Energy Audit and Renewable Energy Development grant to provide subsidized energy audits for small businesses in the region. SWAMC and partners have now completed energy audits of over 60 businesses (buildings and fishing vessels) and are currently operating a third round of the USDA program. Fifteen of those business owners have now received additional grant funding to cover 25% of the cost of the energy efficiency upgrades identified in the audit. This technical assistance structure will be sustained beyond DOE grant funding in several forms. As a sign of increased grant writing and project management capacity, the Kodiak Regional Energy Coordinator applied for and received a USDA Community Facilities Technical Assistance and Training grant to continue work begun under this program. Energy coordination tasks have been folded into existing economic development positions at SWAMC and at BBNA, ensuring long-term outreach and support in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reinterpreting fundamental plane correlations with machine learning

ABSTRACT This work explores the relationships between galaxy sizes and related observable galaxy properties in a large volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. The objectives of this work are to develop a better understanding of both the correlations between galaxy properties and the influence of environment on galaxy physics in order to build an improved model for the galaxy sizes, building off of the fundamental plane. With an accurate intrinsic galaxy size predictor, the residuals in the observed galaxy sizes can potentially be used for multiple cosmological applications, including making measurements of galaxy velocities in spectroscopic samples, estimating the rate of cosmic expansion, and constraining the uncertainties in the photometric redshifts of galaxies. Using projection pursuit regression, the model accurately predicts intrinsic galaxy sizes and have residuals which have limited correlation with galaxy properties. The model decreases the spatial correlation of galaxy size residuals by a factor of ∼5 at small scales compared to the baseline correlation when the mean size is used as a predictor.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Twisted bilayer graphene. I. Matrix elements, approximations, perturbation theory, and a k · p two-band model

We investigate the twisted bilayer graphene (TBG) model of Bistritzer and MacDonald (BM) [Bistritzer and MacDonald, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 108, 12233 (2011)] to obtain an analytic understanding of its energetics and wave functions needed for many-body calculations. We provide an approximation scheme for the wave functions of the BM model, which first elucidates why the BM K M -point centered original calculation containing only four plane waves provides a good analytical value for the first magic angle (θ M ≈ 1°). The approximation scheme also elucidates why most of the many-body matrix elements in the Coulomb Hamiltonian projected to the active bands can be neglected. By applying our approximation scheme at the first magic angle to a Γ M -point centered model of six plane waves, we analytically understand the reason for the small Γ M -point gap between the active and passive bands in the isotropic limit w 0 = w 1 . Furthermore, we analytically calculate the group velocities of the passive bands in the isotropic limit, and show that they are almost doubly degenerate, even away from the Γ M point, where no symmetry forces them to be. Furthermore, moving away from the Γ M and K M points, we provide an explicit analytical perturbative understanding as to why the TBG bands are flat at the first magic angle, despite the first magic angle is defined by only requiring a vanishing K M -point Dirac velocity. We derive analytically a connected “magic manifold” w 1 = $2\sqrt{1 + w^{2}_{0}}$ $-\sqrt{2 + 3w^2_0}$, on which the bands remain extremely flat as w 0 is tuned between the isotropic (w 0 = w 1 ) and chiral (w 0 = 0) limits. We analytically show why going away from the isotropic limit by making w 0 less (but not larger) than w 1 increases the Γ M -point gap between the active and the passive bands. Finally, by perturbation theory, we provide an analytic Γ M point k ∙ p two-band model that reproduces the TBG band structure and eigenstates within a certain w 0 , w 1 parameter range. Further refinement of this model are discussed, which suggest a possible faithful representation of the TBG bands by a two-band Γ M point k ∙ p model in the full w 0 , w 1 parameter range.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Failure of Electrical Transformers due to Effects of a HEMP Event

Understanding the effect of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) on the equipment in the United States electrical power grid is important to national security. A present challenge to this understanding is evaluating the vulnerability of transformers to a HEMP. Evaluating vulnerability by direct testing is cost-prohibitive, due to the wide variation in transformers, their high cost, and the large number of tests required to establish vulnerability with confidence. Alternatively, material and component testing can be performed to quantify a model for transformer failure, and the model can be used to assess vulnerability of a wide variety of transformers. This project develops a model of the probability of equipment failure due to effects of a HEMP. Potential failure modes are cataloged, and a model structure is presented which can be quantified by the results of small-scale coupon tests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

LiDAR For Heliostat Optical Assessment (Final Report)

This project has sought to develop new uses for surveying-quality Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR) 3D scanning sensors in the automatic/autonomous assessment of optical errors in largescale concentrating solar power heliostat fields. Past experiments have demonstrated the ability of a 3D-LiDAR to acquire highly accurate point cloud measurements across several Sandia NSTTF heliostats. The goal of this project is to expand upon this work to see if and how it can be used in large commercial heliostat fields.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Portable Wave Tank and Wave Energy Converter for Engineering Dissemination and Outreach

Wave energy converters are a nascent energy generation technology that harnesses the power in ocean waves. To assist in communicating both fundamental and complex concepts of wave energy, a small-scale portable wave tank and wave energy converter have been developed. The system has been designed using commercial off-the-shelf components, and all design hardware and software are openly available for replication. This project builds on prior research conducted at Sandia National Laboratories, particularly in the areas of WEC device design and control systems. By showcasing the principles of causal feedback control and innovative device design, SIWEED not only serves as a practical demonstration tool but also enhances the educational experience for users. This paper presents the detailed system design of this tool. Furthermore, via testing and analysis, we demonstrate the basic functionality of the system.

educational↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Small Turbine Certification Awardee: NPS Solutions

Inverters convert the direct current power generated by wind turbines into the alternating current needed to serve local loads and feed onto the electricity grid. Although distributed wind systems typically supply electricity for homes and businesses near the turbines, these systems can also provide clean power to strengthen grid resilience. Certification to UL 1741 SA ensures that inverters will enable distributed wind turbines to provide grid support services and stay online when the grid experiences stability issues. Small companies often find the electrical listing process too complex and expensive to undertake on their own, so few distributed wind turbine inverters are certified to this standard. A U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Competitiveness Improvement Project (CIP) award is helping NPS Solutions (NPS) secure this critical certification for the inverter in its 100-kilowatt NPS 100C wind turbine, which is optimized for on-site generation at farms, businesses, schools, hospitals, and remote locations.

CIP↗
DOE OSTI2024

Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program: FY 2023 Completed Projects Report

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) largest multiprogram science, technology, and energy laboratory. It possesses distinctive capabilities in a variety of fields, such as neutron science, computing, advanced materials, and nuclear science and technology. Using these capabilities, ORNL conducts basic and applied research and development (R&D) to support DOE’s overarching mission “to ensure America’s security and prosperity by addressing its energy, environmental and nuclear challenges through transformative science and technology solutions.” As a national resource, ORNL also applies its capabilities and skills to the specific needs of other federal agencies and customers through the DOE Strategic Partnership Projects (SPP) Program. Information about the laboratory and its programs is available on the ORNL website. The Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program at ORNL operates under the authority of the DOE Order 413.2C, Laboratory Directed Research and Development, which establishes DOE’s requirements for the program while providing the laboratory director broad flexibility for program implementation. The LDRD Program funds are obtained through a charge to all laboratory programs. Although it represents a relatively small portion of the overall research budget, the LDRD Program plays an essential role in maintaining the laboratory’s ability to respond to national needs. The program allows ORNL to improve its distinctive capabilities and to enhance its ability to conduct cutting-edge R&D. This report provides an overview of the LDRD Program at ORNL in FY 2023 and contains summaries of all the LDRD research projects that concluded between October 1, 2022, and September 30, 2023.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

CIS Project 22359, Final Technical Report. Discretized Posterior Approximation in High Dimensions

Our primary aim in this work is to understand how to efficiently obtain reliable uncertainty quantification in automatic learning algorithms with limited training datasets. Standard approaches rely on cross-validation to tune hyper parameters. Unfortunately, when our datasets are too small, holdout datasets become unreliable—albeit unbiased—measures of prediction quality due to the lack of adequate sample size. We should not place confidence in holdout estimators under conditions wherein the sample variance is both large and unknown. More poigniantly, our training experiments on limited data (Duersch and Catanach, 2021) show that even if we could improve estimator quality under these conditions, the typical training trajectory may never even encounter generalizable models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Microseismicity and Reactivated Fault Size to Assess the Potential for Felt Events by CO 2 Injection in the Illinois Basin

The results of monitoring of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection at the Illinois Basin—Decatur Project (IBDP) and the companion Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration Sources (IL-ICCS) project—have shown that reservoir response to fluid pressure changes can vary significantly at different injection locations within the same reservoir. Predrill reservoir characterization is important to identify potentially seismogenic faults. However, interpretations of newly reprocessed 3D seismic reflection data illustrate the challenges related to their identification in a region dominated by faulting with small vertical offsets. Faults interpreted in the 3D seismic volume range from ~300 to 1200 m wide and are in the same size range as faults that could have been the source of historical events up to Mw 2.7 in central Illinois. The array of monitoring sensors that was installed for the IBDP continues to collect data, as injection operates in IL-ICCS, the second injection well. CO 2 injection rates for the IL-ICCS well are on average 1.7 times the rates injected in the IBDP well, but a significantly reduced rate of induced seismicity is observed. This article presents results of passive seismic monitoring for the duration of the project to date, integrating active and passive seismic data to develop a new interpretation of the subsurface structure at the Decatur site that explicitly identifies pathways for fluid flow into the basement leading to induced seismicity, and provides a geological explanation for the sharp reduction of induced seismicity during injection at higher rates into the second well. The use of seismic moment to estimate the length of seismogenic slip planes in the local subsurface suggests that faults large enough to produce felt seismicity are unlikely to be present at or near the Decatur site.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Alpha-alpha scattering in the Multiverse

We investigate the phase shifts of low-energy α-α scattering under variations of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model, namely the light quark mass, the electromagnetic fine-structure constant as well as the QCD θ-angle. As a first step, we recalculate α-α scattering in our Universe utilizing various improvements in the adiabatic projection method, which leads to an improved, parameter-free prediction of the S- and D-wave phase shifts for laboratory energies below 10 MeV. We find that positive shifts in the pion mass have a small effect on the S-wave phase shift, whereas lowering the pion mass adds some repulsion in the two-alpha system. The effect on the D-wave phase shift turns out to be more pronounced as signaled by the D-wave resonance parameters. Variations of the fine-structure constant have almost no effect on the low-energy α-α phase shifts. We further show that up-to-and-including next-to-leading order in the chiral expansion, variations of these phase shifts with respect to the QCD θ-angle can be expressed in terms of the θ-dependent pion mass.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time Evolution and Diurnal Variability of the Parametric Sensitivity of Turbine-Height Winds in the MYNN-EDMF Parameterization

The Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) parameterization applied in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been augmented to include the Eddy-Diffusion Mass-Flux (EDMF) approach to better represent transport by boundary-layer eddies. This change includes the addition of new parameters associated with convective updrafts and boundary-layer clouds. These additions lead to new parametric sensitivities in the hub-height wind speed compared to simulations using the standard MYNN parameterization that were explored previously. This work builds on efforts focused on WRF’s MYNN parameterization by examining the sensitivity of hub-height wind speed to parameters in the MYNN-EDMF parameterization as a function of simulation lead time. Summer and winter periods were selected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Five sets of simulations were completed for each season, with lead times ranging from 2 to 6 days. The results show that the sensitivity to the new parameters associated with the EDMF scheme is generally small compared to other parameters, with the largest impact in convective boundary layers. The spread in the perturbed parameter ensembles was found to grow quickly over the first 8 to 19 hours in the summer simulations and 17 to 24 hours in the winter simulations with little change after that, regardless of the simulation length. A strong diurnal cycle in the parameter sensitivity was also found associated with changes in the atmospheric stability, as well as an increase in the sensitivity to the entrainment parameter used in the EDMF parameterization that is associated with increasing fractional areas covered by plumes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time-resolved investigation of subnanosecond radiation from Al wire hybrid X pinches

K-shell x-ray spectra from Al wire hybrid X pinches have been studied using an x-ray streak camera with better than 0.1-ns time resolution together with a Focusing Spectrograph with Spatial Resolution (FSSR) spectrograph. High-intensity radiation with a continuumlike spectrum was observed in the subnanosecond initial phase of the x-ray pulse generated by the hybrid X pinch (HXP). Here, the absence of spectral lines in this phase and the extremely small x-ray source size indicates the importance of radiative processes in the final phase implosion dynamics. Plasma parameters in the following phases of the HXP were determined from analysis of the line intensities. Point-projection radiography together with a slit-step wedge camera and an FSSR spectrograph without time resolution were used to show the number of radiation sources, and to give information on the time-integrated photon energy spectrum.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Imperial Valley Dark Fiber Project: Toward Seismic Studies Using DAS and Telecom Infrastructure for Geothermal Applications

We report that the Imperial Valley is a seismically active basin occupying the southern end of the Salton trough, an area of rapid extension, high heat flow, and abundant geothermal resources. This report describes an ongoing large-scale distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) recording study acquiring high-density seismic data on an array between Calipatria and Imperial, California. This 27 km array, operating on dark fiber since 9 November 2020, has recorded a wealth of local seismic events as well as ambient noise. The goal of the broader Imperial Valley Dark Fiber project is to evaluate passive DAS as a tool for geothermal exploration and monitoring. This report is intended to provide installation information, noise characteristics, and metadata for future studies utilizing the data set. Because of the relatively small number of basin-scale DAS studies that have been conducted to date, we also provide a range of lessons learned during the deployment to assist future researchers exploring this acquisition strategy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗