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At least 631 records · Page 35

Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 °C above 1850–1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30 °N, 15 °N, 15 °S, and 30 °S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-to-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 °C vs. 2.0 °C). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO 2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of experiments that include strong mitigation and carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application are proposed to assess the robustness of impacts on societies and ecosystems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Experimental evidence for amorphous carbon grains in comets

Amorphous carbon grains similar to those produced in the laboratory, but with a higher hydrogen content, appear to be good candidates to simulate both the IR continuum emission and the 3.4 micron band measured for P/Halley. The comparison of the cometary features with those detected in the laboratory for carbon grains characterized by various sp(exp 2)/sp(exp 3) ratios seems to indicate that a prevalent diamond-like (sp(exp 3)) structure should be present in cometary particles. These kinds of solid particles seem also suitable to explain the daily and monthly variations of the 3.4 micron band intensity, relative to the continuum, and, at the same time,- to fulfill the abundance constraints. The same grains appear to be able to reproduce the absorption bands detected in the IR galactic source IRS 7. This result may be considered as a first experimental evidence of a relation existing between interstellar dust and cometary materials.

Colangeli, Luigi↗

HEAO 3 limits on the Ti-44 yield in Galactic supernovae

Data fron the high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy experiment on HEAO 3 have been searched for line emission from the decay of Ti-44 created in recent, as yet unobserved, Galactic supernova explosions, where the ages and locations are unknown. Because the 78 yr mean life of Ti-44 is comparable to the average time between Galactic supernovae, the gamma-ray line emission from its decay should appear as Galactic point sources. No evidence was found for such emission from a point source anywhere in the Galactic plane, with a 1-sigma limit of 8.3 x 10 exp -5 photons/sq cm per sec. Detailed models were developed to simulate the Galactic gamma-ray emission from the decay of Ti-44 produced in both type I and type II supernovae. These models were used with the measured gamma-ray line limits to constrain the supernova yields and recurrence periods.

Mahoney, W. A.↗

A Comparison of Single-Cycle Versus Multiple-Cycle Proof Testing Strategies

Single-cycle and multiple-cycle proof testing (SCPT and MCPT) strategies for reusable aerospace propulsion system components are critically evaluated and compared from a rigorous elastic-plastic fracture mechanics perspective. Earlier MCPT studies are briefly reviewed. New J-integral estimation methods for semi-elliptical surface cracks and cracks at notches are derived and validated. Engineering methods are developed to characterize crack growth rates during elastic-plastic fatigue crack growth (FCG) and the tear-fatigue interaction near instability. Surface crack growth experiments are conducted with Inconel 718 to characterize tearing resistance, FCG under small-scale yielding and elastic-plastic conditions, and crack growth during simulated MCPT. Fractography and acoustic emission studies provide additional insight. The relative merits of SCPT and MCPT are directly compared using a probabilistic analysis linked with an elastic-plastic crack growth computer code. The conditional probability of failure in service is computed for a population of components that have survived a previous proof test, based on an assumed distribution of initial crack depths. Parameter studies investigate the influence of proof factor, tearing resistance, crack shape, initial crack depth distribution, and notches on the MCPT vs. SCPT comparison. The parameter studies provide a rational basis to formulate conclusions about the relative advantages and disadvantages of SCPT and MCPT. Practical engineering guidelines are proposed to help select the optimum proof test protocol in a given application.

McClung, R. C.↗

A Comparison of Single-Cycle Versus Multiple-Cycle Proof Testing Strategies

Single-cycle and multiple-cycle proof testing (SCPT and MCPT) strategies for reusable aerospace propulsion system components are critically evaluated and compared from a rigorous elastic-plastic fracture mechanics perspective. Earlier MCPT studies are briefly reviewed. New J-integral estimation methods for semi-elliptical surface cracks and cracks at notches are derived and validated. Engineering methods are developed to characterize crack growth rates during elastic-plastic fatigue crack growth (FCG) and the tear-fatigue interaction near instability. Surface crack growth experiments are conducted with Inconel 718 to characterize tearing resistance, FCG under small-scale yielding and elastic-plastic conditions, and crack growth during simulated MCPT. Fractography and acoustic emission studies provide additional insight. The relative merits of SCPT and MCPT are directly compared using a probabilistic analysis linked with an elastic-plastic crack growth computer code. The conditional probability of failure in service is computed for a population of components that have survived a previous proof test, based on an assumed distribution of initial crack depths. Parameter studies investigate the influence of proof factor, tearing resistance, crack shape, initial crack depth distribution, and notches on the MCPT vs. SCPT comparison. The parameter studies provide a rational basis to formulate conclusions about the relative advantages and disadvantages of SCPT and MCPT. Practical engineering guidelines are proposed to help select the optimum proof test protocol in a given application.

McClung, R. C.↗

A Comparison of Single-Cycle Versus Multiple-Cycle Proof Testing Strategies

Single-cycle and multiple-cycle proof testing (SCPT and MCPT) strategies for reusable aerospace propulsion system components are critically evaluated and compared from a rigorous elastic-plastic fracture mechanics perspective. Earlier MCPT studies are briefly reviewed. New J-integral estimation methods for semielliptical surface cracks and cracks at notches are derived and validated. Engineering methods are developed to characterize crack growth rates during elastic-plastic fatigue crack growth (FCG) and the tear-fatigue interaction near instability. Surface crack growth experiments are conducted with Inconel 718 to characterize tearing resistance, FCG under small-scale yielding and elastic-plastic conditions, and crack growth during simulated MCPT. Fractography and acoustic emission studies provide additional insight. The relative merits of SCPT and MCPT are directly compared using a probabilistic analysis linked with an elastic-plastic crack growth computer code. The conditional probability of failure in service is computed for a population of components that have survived a previous proof test, based on an assumed distribution of initial crack depths. Parameter studies investigate the influence of proof factor, tearing resistance, crack shape, initial crack depth distribution, and notches on the MCPT versus SCPT comparison. The parameter studies provide a rational basis to formulate conclusions about the relative advantages and disadvantages of SCPT and MCPT. Practical engineering guidelines are proposed to help select the optimum proof test protocol in a given application.

McClung, R. C.↗

Interannual Variability in Intercontinental Transport

We have investigated the importance of intercontinental transport using source-receptor relationship. A global radon-like and seven regional tracers were used in three-dimensional model simulations to quantify their contributions to column burdens and vertical profiles at world-wide receptors. Sensitivity of these contributions to meteorological input was examined using different years of meteorology in two atmospheric simulations. Results show that Asian emission influences tracer distributions in its eastern downwind regions extending as far as Europe with major contributions in mid- and upper troposphere. On the western and eastern sides of the US, Asian contribution to annual average column burdens are 37% and 5% respectively with strong monthly variations. At an altitude of 10 km, these contributions are 75% and 25% respectively. North American emissions contribute more than 15% to annual average column burden and about 50% at 8 km altitude over the European region. Contributions from tropical African emissions are wide-spread in both the hemispheres. Differences in meteorological input cause non-uniform redistribution of tracer mass throughout the troposphere at all receptors. We also show that in model-model and model-data comparison, correlation analysis of tracer's spatial gradients provides an added measure of model's performance.

Gupta, Mohan↗

Dynamics of the Transition Corona

Magnetic reconnection between the open and closed magnetic fields in the corona is believed to play a crucial role in the corona/heliosphere coupling. At large scale, the exchange of open/closed connectivity is expected to occur in pseudo-streamer (PS) structures. However, there is neither clear observational evidence of how such coupling occurs in PSs, nor evidence for how the magnetic reconnection evolves. Using a newly developed technique, we enhance the off-limb magnetic fine structures observed with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly and identify a PS-like feature located close to the northern coronal hole. We first identify that the magnetic topology associated with the observation is a PS, null-point (NP) related topology bounded by the open field. By comparing the magnetic field configuration with the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission regions, we determined that most of the magnetic flux associated with plasma emission are small loops below the PS basic NP and open field bounding the PS topology. In order to interpret the evolution of the PS, we referred to a three-dimensional MHD interchange reconnection modeling the exchange of connectivity between small closed loops and the open field. The observed PS fine structures follow the dynamics of the magnetic field before and after reconnecting at the NP obtained by the interchange model. Moreover, the pattern of the EUV plasma emission is the same as the shape of the expected plasma emission location derived from the simulation. These morphological and dynamical similarities between the PS observations and the results from the simulation strongly suggest that the evolution of the PS, and in particular the opening/closing of the field, occurs via interchange/slipping reconnection at the basic NP of the PS. Besides identifying the mechanism at work in the large-scale coupling between the open and closed fields, our results highlight that interchange reconnection in PSs is a gradual physical process that differs from the impulsive reconnection of the solar-jet model.

magnetic fields↗

Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) 3.0 as a Versatile Emissions Component for Atmospheric Models: Application in the GEOS-Chem, NASA GEOS, WRF-GC, CESM2, NOAA GEFS-Aerosol, and NOAA UFS Models

Emissions are a central component of atmospheric chemistry models. The Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) is a software component for computing emissions from a user-selected ensemble of emission inventories and algorithms. It allows users to re-grid, combine, overwrite, subset, and scale emissions from different inventories through a configuration file and with no change to the model source code. The configuration file also maps emissions to model species with appropriate units. HEMCO can operate in offline stand-alone mode, but more importantly it provides an online facility for models to compute emissions at runtime. HEMCO complies with the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) for portability across models. We present a new version here, HEMCO 3.0, that features an improved three-layer architecture to facilitate implementation into any atmospheric model and improved capability for calculating emissions at any model resolution including multiscale and unstructured grids. The three-layer architecture of HEMCO 3.0 includes (1) the Data Input Layer that reads the configuration file and accesses the HEMCO library of emission inventories and other environmental data, (2) the HEMCO Core that computes emissions on the user-selected HEMCO grid, and (3) the Model Interface Layer that re-grids (if needed) and serves the data to the atmospheric model and also serves model data to the HEMCO Core for computing emissions dependent on model state (such as from dust or vegetation). The HEMCO Core is common to the implementation in all models, while the Data Input Layer and the Model Interface Layer are adaptable to the model environment. Default versions of the Data Input Layer and Model Interface Layer enable straightforward implementation of HEMCO in any simple model architecture, and options are available to disable features such as re-gridding that may be done by independent couplers in more complex architectures. The HEMCO library of emission inventories and algorithms is continuously enriched through user contributions so that new inventories can be immediately shared across models. HEMCO can also serve as a general data broker for models to process input data not only for emissions but for any gridded environmental datasets. We describe existing implementations of HEMCO 3.0 in (1) the GEOS-Chem “Classic” chemical transport model with shared-memory infrastructure, (2) the high-performance GEOS-Chem (GCHP) model with distributed-memory architecture, (3) the NASA GEOS Earth System Model (GEOS ESM), (4) the Weather Research and Forecasting model with GEOS-Chem (WRF-GC), (5) the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), and (6) the NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System – Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols), as well as the planned implementation in the NOAA Unified Forecast System (UFS). Implementation of HEMCO in CESM2 contributes to the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA) by providing a common emissions infrastructure to support different simulations of atmospheric chemistry across scales.

Haipeng Lin↗

Exploring the Inorganic Composition of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer Using Medium-Duration Balloon Flights

Satellite observations have revealed an enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the summer monsoon, called the “Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer” (ATAL). In this work, aerosol particles in the ATAL were collected with a balloon-borne impactor near the tropopause region over India, using extended-duration balloon flights, in summer 2017 and winter 2018. The chemical composition of these particles was further investigated by quantitative analysis using offline ion chromatography. Nitrate (NO_3 ^1) and nitrite (NO_2 ^-) were found to be the dominant ions in the collected aerosols with values ranging between 87 and 343 ng m^(−3) at STP (standard temperature and pressure) during the summer campaign. In contrast, sulfate (SO_4 ^(2-)) levels were found to be above the detection limit (>10 ng m^(−3) at STP) only in winter. In addition, we determined the origin of the air masses sampled during the flights using the analysis of back trajectories as well as a convective proxy from cloud-top temperature fields derived from a geostationary satellite. The results obtained from this analysis were put into the context of large-scale transport and aerosol distribution using GEOS-Chem chemical transport model simulations. The first flight in summer 2017 which sampled an air mass within the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA), influenced by convection over Western China, was associated with particle size diameters from 0.05 to 0.15 µm. In contrast, the second flight sampled air masses at the edge of the AMA associated with a larger particle size radius (>2 µm) with a higher NO_2 ^- concentration. The sampled air masses in winter 2018 were likely affected by smoke from the Pacific Northwest fire event in Canada, which occurred 7 months before our campaign, associated with concentration enhancements of SO_4 (^2-) and Ca^(2+). Overall, our results suggest that nitrogen-containing particles represent a large fraction of cloud-free and in-cloud aerosols populating the ATAL, which is partially in agreement with the results from aircraft measurements during the StratoClim (Stratospheric and upper tropospheric processes for better climate predictions) campaign. The exact nature of those particles is still unknown, but their coincidences with subvisible cirrus clouds and their sizes suggest nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) as a possible candidate, as NAT has already been observed in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in other studies. Furthermore, GEOS-Chem model simulations indicate that lightning NOx emissions could have significantly impacted the production of nitrate aerosols sampled during the summer of 2017.

Hazel Vernier↗

Uncertainty in Land-Use Adaptation Persists Despite Crop Model Projections Showing Lower Impacts Under High Warming

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.

Agriculture↗

Infrared emission and tidal interactions of spiral galaxies

Computer simulations of tidal interactions of spiral galaxies are used to attempt to understand recent discoveries about infrared (IR) emitting galaxies. It is found that the stronger tidal perturbation by a companion the more disk gas clouds are thrown into nucleus crossing orbits and the greater the velocity jumps crossing spiral arms. Both these tidally created characteristics would create more IR emission by high speed cloud collisions and more IR via effects of recently formed stars. This expectation at greater tidal perturbation matches the observation of greater IR emission for spiral galaxies with closer and/or more massive companions. The greater collision velocities found at stronger perturbations on the models will also result in higher dust temperature in the colliding clouds. In the IR pairs examined, most have only one member, the larger, detected and when both are detected, the larger is always the more luminous. In simulations and in a simple analytic description of the strong distance dependence of the tidal force, it is found that the big galaxy of a pair is more strongly affected than the small.

Byrd, Gene G.↗

Assessment of Retrieved GMI Emissivity Over Land, Snow and Sea Ice in the GEOS System

Measurements from microwave sounders and imagers provide a valuable source of information including atmospheric temperature and water vapor in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems that assimilate these observations directly over water surfaces (oceans and other large water bodies). In a recent decadal survey, targeted observables in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) were cited as a key need for future observations (NASEM, 2018). Microwave observations which sense in the PBL are currently available, however, utilizing surface-sensitive microwave observations for atmospheric data assimilation remains a challenge over land, snow and sea ice. This is in part due to the inability of surface emissivity models used by NWP data assimilation systems to simulate observations with sufficient accuracy. The GEOS-ADAS (Todling and el Akkraoui, 2018) which utilizes the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) (Han, 2006; Chen 2009) is no exception. The ECMWF system has retrieved instantaneous surface emissivity from surface-sensitive channels for SSMI/S and MHS radiance observations, and apply these estimates to the closest channels higher in frequency (Baordo and Geer 2016) in the calculation of simulated radiances. This approach currently is also being tested in the GEOS-ADAS for AMSU-A and ATMS radiances (Zhu et al. 2021). No or minimal emissivity spectral variability has been assumed in the above-mentioned studies. Recently, work by Munchak et al., 2020 (hereby referred to as M2020) provided a new database for emissivity over land, snow and sea ice retrieved from the NASA Global Precipitation Mission (GPM). Compared with Tool to Estimate Land Surface Emissivities at Microwave (TELSEM2; Wang et al., 2017), M2020 provides emissivities for more frequencies(i.e., 10.7 GHz V/H). Moreover, this database is unique in that it utilizes both active and passive data to retrieve surface emissivity and normalized radar cross section. While the emissivity values may be useful for other sensors, they are most applicable to the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI). In this work the GEOS-ADAS is modified to utilize emissivity values from Munchak et al, 2020 in place of values used by CRTM. Presently, only GMI radiances over ocean are used in the operational GEOS-ADAS. This study will focus on the GMI radiances over land, snow, and ice, as a first attempt to evaluate GMI radiances over these non-water surface types. Two cases are then presented, one with one week of observation minus background departures using the modified GEOS-ADAS, and one utilizing the original GEOS-ADAS. It should be noted that the surface emissivity models in CRTM are not state of the art and are scheduled to be replaced by the Community Surface Emissivity Module (CSEM; Chen and Weng, 2016). Simulations using default CRTM emissivity values are used merely as reference comparing against M2020, and is not a thorough comparison against other more state of the art modules such as CSEM.

GMI↗

Evaluation of Modeling NO2 Concentrations Driven by Satellite-Derived and Bottom-Up Emission Inventories Using In-Situ Measurements Over China

Chemical transport models together with emission inventories are widely used to simulate NO2 concentrations over China, but validation of the simulations with in situ measurements has been extremely limited. Here we use ground measurements obtained from the air quality monitoring network recently developed by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China to validate modeling surface NO2 concentrations from the CHIMERE regional chemical transport model driven by the satellite-derived DECSO and the bottom-up MIX emission inventories. We applied a correction factor to the observations to account for the interferences of other oxidized nitrogen compounds (NOz), based on the modeled ratio of NO2 to NOz. The model accurately reproduces the spatial variability in NO2 from in situ measurements, with a spatial correlation coefficient of over 0.7 for simulations based on both inventories. A negative and positive bias is found for the simulation with the DECSO (slopeD0.74 and 0.64 for the daily mean and daytime only) and the MIX (slopeD1.3 and 1.1) inventories, respectively, suggesting an underestimation and overestimation of NOx emissions from corresponding inventories. The bias between observed and modeled concentrations is reduced, with the slope dropping from 1.3 to 1.0 when the spatial distribution of NOx emissions in the DECSO inventory is applied as the spatial proxy for the MIX inventory, which suggests an improvement of the distribution of emissions between urban and suburban or rural areas in the DECSO inventory compared to that used in the bottom-up inventory. A rough estimate indicates that the observed concentrations, from sites predominantly placed in the populated urban areas, may be 10-40% higher than the corresponding model grid cell mean. This reduces the estimate of the negative bias of the DECSO-based simulation to the range of -30 to 0% on average and more firmly establishes that the MIX inventory is biased high over major cities. The performance of the model is comparable over seasons, with a slightly worse spatial correlation in summer due to the difficulties in resolving the more active NOx photochemistry and larger concentration gradients in summer by the model. In addition, the model well captures the daytime diurnal cycle but shows more significant disagreement between simulations and measurements during nighttime, which likely produces a positive model bias of about 15% in the daily mean concentrations. This is most likely related to the uncertainty in vertical mixing in the model at night.

NO2 modelling↗

Three-Dimensional Trajectory Design for Reducing Climate Impact of Trans-Atlantic Flights

The impact of aircraft emissions and contrails on the environment adds an additional aspect to aircraft trajectory optimization. This study developed a three-dimensional trajectory optimization algorithm for trans-Atlantic flights in cruise to generate aircraft trajectories that minimize environmental impacts due to CO2 emissions and contrails in the presence of winds. The climate-optimal trajectory is developed using dynamic programming that adjusts a wind-optimal aircraft heading while determining the optimal locations, altitudes and times for en-route step climbs. Flying wind-optimal routes minimize aircraft travel time, fuel burn and associated emissions during cruise while adjusting aircraft heading and en-route step climbs at the optimal locations and times minimize climate impact of contrails. This capability integrates an air traffic management simulation with aircraft fuel burn and emissions models, contrail formation and dispersion models, simplified climate response models, and a common climate metric. A study was conducted to evaluate the potential cost and benefits of flying climate-optimal routes in North Atlantic Airspace and their impacts to the Organized Track System design based on the trans-Atlantic air traffic during a day, July 12, 2012. Results show eastbound flights achieved a larger environmental benefit with less additional fuel burn than westbound flights that operated in strong headwinds that caused more additional fuel burn and aircraft emissions to avoid traversing contrails favorable regions.

climate impact of aviation↗

General Relativistic Radiative Transfer and General Relativistic MHD Simulations of Accretion and Outflows of Black Holes

We have calculated the emission from relativistic flows in black hole systems using a fully general relativistic radiative transfer, with flow structures obtained by general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations. We consider thermal free-free emission and thermal synchrotron emission. Bright filament-like features are found protruding (visually) from the accretion disk surface, which are enhancements of synchrotron emission when the magnetic field is roughly aligned with the line-of-sight in the co-moving frame. The features move back and forth as the accretion flow evolves, but their visibility and morphology are robust. We propose that variations and location drifts of the features are responsible for certain X-ray quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) observed in black-hole X-ray binaries.

Fuerst, Steven V.↗

Sensitivity of Air Quality to Potential Future Climate Change and Emissions in the United States and Major Cities

Simulated present and future air quality is compared for the years 2006e2010 and 2048e2052 over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Regionally downscaled present and future climate results are developed using GISS and the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Present and future emissions are estimated using MARKAL 9R model. O3 and PM(sub 2.5) sensitivities to precursor emissions for the years 2010 and 2050 are calculated using CMAQDDM (Direct Decoupled Method). We find major improvements in future U.S. air quality including generally decreased MDA8 (maximum daily 8-hr average O3) mixing ratios and PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and reduced frequency of NAAQS O3 standard exceedances in most major U.S. cities. The Eastern and Pacific U.S. experience the largest reductions in summertime seasonal average MDA8 (up to 12 ppb) with localized decreases in the 4th highest MDA8 of the year, decreasing by up to 25 ppb. Results from a Climate Penalty (CP) scenario isolate the impact of climate change on air quality and show that future climate change tends to increase O3 mixing ratios in some regions of the U.S., with climate change causing increases of over 10 ppb in the annual 4th highest MDA8 in Los Angeles. Seasonal average PM(sub 2.5) decreases (2-4 microgram m(exp -3)) over the Eastern U.S. are accounted for by decreases in sulfate and nitrate concentrations resulting from reduced mobile and point source emissions of NO(sub x) and SO(sub x).

Projecting emissions↗

Evidence of restricted heat transport in National Ignition Facility Hohlraums

We present experimental evidence of restricted electron thermal conduction in the high-Z coronal plasma regions of laser-driven Hohlraums on the National Ignition Facility. Four separate measurements, three of which are direct observations of Hohlraum dynamics, corroborate this finding. (1) The velocity of the coronal plasma ablated and heated by the outer-cone laser beams is determined by time-dependent imaging of the gold plasma plume, or “bubble.” The velocities of the incoming plume (perpendicular to the Hohlraum axis) are consistent with high-fidelity 2D radiation-hydrodynamic simulations using flux-limited thermal electron conduction with a flux multiplier f = 0.03. Simulations using f = 0.15, which is very nearly classical Spitzer–Härm transport, predict plume velocities slower than measured. (2) Specific features in time-resolved images of the Hohlraum wall at an angle of 19° are also more consistent with f = 0.03 simulations compared to f = 0.15. (3) Spectroscopic tracers were added to the Hohlraum wall in the outer-beam bubble region. The ratios of hydrogen-like to helium-like line emission are sensitive to the electron temperature of the bubble. The hydrogen-like to helium-like ratios extracted from the time-integrated spectra of manganese and cobalt tracers from two observation angles are consistent with f = 0.03 and not with f = 0.15. (4) The time of peak capsule emission, or “bang time,” an integrated measurement, is also more consistent with f = 0.03 than with f = 0.15. Overall, while these findings do not identify the causes of restricted thermal conduction in Hohlraums, they motivate future experiments to test specific hypotheses and focus on model development in the regions of the plasma exhibiting restricted transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗