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At least 631 records · Page 35

DUET - Distribution of Understory using Elliptical Transport: A mechanistic model of leaf litter and herbaceous spatial distribution based on tree canopy structure

Heterogeneity in surface fuels produced by overstory trees and understory vegetation is a major driver of fire behavior and ecosystem dynamics. Previous attempts at predicting tree leaf and needle litter accumulation over time have been constrained in scope to probabilistic models that consider a limited number of key factors influencing tree litter dispersal patterns and decomposition processes. Here we present a mechanistic model for estimating variation in surface fuels called the Distribution of Understory using Elliptical Transport (DUET). DUET uses a pre-generated voxelated canopy array and distributes the leaf litter from the trees in an elliptical shape based on tree species characteristics, wind data, and location-specific features. DUET then calculates grass growth between trees and around the litter patterns and sets moisture levels based on relative humidity. In this study, we use DUET to simulate spatial distributions of leaf litter and illustrate model sensitivity to several parameters, providing inputs for testing fuel spatial heterogeneity impacts on fire behavior using process-based models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental investigation on thermal inertia characterization of commercial buildings for demand response

Characterizing the thermal inertia of commercial buildings is of great importance in quantifying demand flexibility. Experimental tests can be used to investigate the thermal inertia of commercial buildings. However, existing studies tend to be qualitative and have limited scope. In this study, a comprehensive field test has been performed to assess the thermal inertia of commercial buildings. In this field test, six buildings are selected with different sizes, vintages, and types of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to represent the majority of the U.S. commercial building stock. We quantify the thermal inertia with building operation data collected under various thermostat excitation signals. We then studied the relationship between thermal inertia and intrinsic properties, such as floor area, HVAC system, etc., as well as the operation condition indicators such as outdoor air temperature, zone temperature, and occupancy. The testing results indicate that the median values of the normalized charge response time and the normalized discharge response time of the five buildings are 1~5 hr/ °C and -5~-1 hr/ °C, respectively. The results also show that the thermal inertia of commercial buildings may be sensitive to the HVAC system type but not the floor area or location of zones, i.e., core vs. perimeter. Finally, our results suggest that the relationships between the charging/discharging normalized response time and the zone/outdoor temperature may vary among zones and be highly nonlinear.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Residential Demand Flexibility: Modeling Occupant Behavior using Sociodemographic Predictors

Demand flexibility (DF) has the potential to increase the saturation of renewables in the grid and reduce operating costs for both utilities and customers. However, less than 8% of U.S. residential electric customers are enrolled in DF programs. A major research gap on this topic is an uneven understanding of behavioral drivers of electricity use and DF program participation at the household level. In this study, we employ machine learning models to predict residential occupant behavior in activities relevant to DF. We model occupants' extensive decisions (i.e., choice of action) and intensive behaviors (i.e., amount of time spent) during peak and off-peak time periods using the publicly available American Time Use Survey, which includes activities data for approximately 200,000 respondents. In our machine learning models, predictions for both extensive and intensive behavior fell within a +/-20% error margin at the aggregate level. We identify 13 key sociodemographic predictors of DF-related intensive behavior using LASSO inference and beta coefficient ranking. However, these top predictors differ by activity, suggesting potential scope for differential user targeting for DF events and technologies during program design. This work also contributes to understanding when and who might adopt these DF technologies based on their daily routine activities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Component-based SHGC determination of BIPV glazing for product comparison

Building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems are intrinsically designed to generate electricity and to provide at least one building-related function. When BIPV modules act as glazing products in windows, skylights or curtain walls, their ability to control the transmission of solar energy into the building must be characterised by a Solar Heat Gain Coefficient (SHGC) or g value (also known as Total Solar Energy Transmittance – TSET – or “solar factor”). For the comparison of BIPV glazing products consisting of one PV laminate and possibly further, conventional glazing layers separated by gas-filled cavities, the procedures documented in international standards for architectural glazing (e.g. ISO 9050 and EN 410) form a suitable starting point. Easily implemented modifications to these procedures are proposed to take both optical inhomogeneity (if relevant) and extraction of electricity from BIPV glazing units into account. Geometrically complex glazing and shading devices, and light-scattering glazing layers, are outside the scope of the proposed methodology; SHGC determination for obliquely incident solar radiation is also excluded. For these cases, the experimental calorimetric approach documented in [ISO 19467:2017; ISO 19467-2:2021] is recommended. The paper also presents results and conclusions from an implementation exercise and sensitivity study carried out by participants of the IEA-PVPS Task 15 on BIPV. The cell coverage ratio in the PV laminate, the thermal resistance offered by the glazing configuration, the choice of boundary conditions and the effect of extracting electricity were all identified as parameters which significantly affect the SHGC value determined for a given type of BIPV glazing. A practicable approach to accommodate the great variety of dimensions typical for BIPV glazing is also proposed. These findings should pave the way for modifying the existing component-based standards for architectural glazing to take the specific features of BIPV glazing into account.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

From models to reality: a systematic review on simulated and measured residential heat pump energy savings

High-performance HVAC solutions are central to residential energy management. A substantial share of these are electric, reversible-cycle systems, with heat pumps representing the largest portion of current and near-term adoption. This review synthesizes peer-reviewed and grey literature on residential space heating and cooling heat pumps. The academic literature is dominated by modeling (73.8%), with limited field measurement (13.1%). Grey literature from United States serve as a supplemental resource providing measured savings. Conversions from electric-resistance heating consistently show the largest site energy reductions, while oil/propane baselines yield moderate savings, and gas baseline scenario often deliver small and region-dependent savings. This study cross-checks the grey literature measured data with simulation data filtered from the ResStock dataset. The comparison indicates a discrepancy between simulations and measured data: simulated site EUIs are typically lower than measured EUIs, but percentage energy savings fall in similar ranges, implying simulations capture directional effects while underestimating energy use. Factors associated with variability and model–measurement differences include system characterization and control representation (e.g., backup heat engagement, thermostat/setpoint strategies, commissioning/installation quality), occupant behavior, weather normalization, metering scope, and envelope characterization. This paper also outlines the proposed methodology for comparing simulation and measured data for heat pumps. It emphasizes the metrics used for comparison and units harmonization, building characteristics matching, and compact metadata are needed for simulations to match measured data. The proposed methodology is expected to improve the credibility of simulated savings as measured evidence grows.

Yu, Lili↗

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The global policy landscape of ISO 50001 energy management systems

While many options exist to improve industrial demand-side energy efficiency, energy management systems (EnMSs)—particularly those aligned with ISO 50001—are proven to drive continuous and meaningful energy performance improvements. Governments leverage these EnMSs in their policies to advance national objectives including enhancing industrial competitiveness and achieving environmental goals. Existing research has focused on the impact of EnMSs at the company level, while comprehensive work on EnMSs in a global policy context is lacking. We seek to close this gap by investigating the extent to which current national policies incorporate the utilization of EnMSs, particularly the ISO 50001 standard. Our paper employs a hybrid approach, combining a literature review and expert interviews across 28 governments representing > 86% of global primary energy consumption. We dissect policy mechanisms, governance levels, underlying motivations, and trends in present EnMS policies. We find that > 96% of the investigated countries include EnMSs within their policy scope; 90% of policies including EnMSs utilize the ISO 50001 standard in some capacity. Primary policy motivations include decarbonization, energy savings for industrial competitiveness, and energy system resilience. We highlight that in the EnMS context, policy mixes—combining economic incentives, regulatory instruments, and information-based approaches—are more effective than standalone measures. Our work provides a novel global overview of governmental EnMS policies, moving beyond whether EnMS should be adopted to focus on how they can be implemented most effectively.

Moreno, Francisco Luis↗

FIND: A Synthetic weather generator to control drought Frequency, Intensity, and Duration

Water systems worldwide are experiencing climate change-induced shifts in drought properties like frequency, intensity, and duration, affecting water security and reliability. To develop and test effective drought preparedness plans, researchers often use synthetic weather generators to create hydrological scenarios that explore drought variability beyond historical records. Existing weather generators typically allow users to adjust streamflow statistics like percentiles or temporal correlation but do not directly control drought properties of frequency, intensity, and duration. To fill this gap, we propose FIND (Frequency, INtensity, and Duration) synthetic weather generator. FIND incorporates a standardized drought index to directly and in dependently control drought frequency, intensity, and duration in generated streamflow time series while preserving observed hydrological variability. Use cases for FIND include i) water systems analysis applications that seek to train and test drought strategies under historical and plausible future drought conditions, and ii) bottom-up vulnerability studies relating system vulnerability outcomes to specific changes in drought properties of frequency, intensity, and duration. Here, we demonstrate FIND’s versatility through three experiments: replicating historically observed drought properties, generating streamflow scenarios for multiple sites preserving correlation between their drought conditions, and generating a set of scenarios with direct and independent changes in drought properties. FIND source code is openly available for applications beyond the scope of this paper.

42 ENGINEERING↗

What, why and when to go virtual: An international analysis of early adopters of virtual building energy codes inspections

To meet greenhouse gas reduction targets, several countries are pursuing more ambitious policies in their buildings and construction sectors, such as introducing zero net energy/carbon building codes. Countries often report not having enough qualified staff for performing building energy code inspections and many are exploring faster, easier, and more reliable methods to check the compliance of buildings with their codes. Building inspections are a critical element for ensuring code compliance and they have traditionally been performed in person. However, in-person inspections can be labor and travel intensive, costly, and prone to human error. In this paper, the authors explore how virtual inspections, particularly in light of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, have impacted processes for building code compliance checks in jurisdictions and communities around the world. Here, the authors collected data on four key parameters (time and financial savings, scope of inspections, changing practices and technological innovation, and benefits to consumers) from six jurisdictions and communities in five countries (Australia, Canada, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, and the United States) to analyze the impacts of virtual inspections on code compliance checks. The analysis found the greatest value from virtual inspections in geographically dispersed regions and for cities experiencing rapid building construction. The study also explored emerging technologies that are being piloted for virtual inspections. Although many of these technologies hold promise, more resources and capacity are needed to make them viable for use in building energy code inspections.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Reviewing flexibility in industrial electrification: Focusing on green ammonia and steel in the United States

The renewable energy transition in the power sector involves a paradigm shift for flexibility. Flexible demand is more attainable than before, while supply flexibility faces new constraints due to the increased share of variable renewable resources. Increased demand flexibility can allow less use of peaking power plants and avoid need for additional capacity. Industrial flexibility could be especially interesting in this regard, as industrial customers are larger on average than other customers and have typically provided the largest share of demand response in the United States. We consider industrial demand, studying characteristics of flexible industrial loads. We then examine the dynamics of change occurring around industrial load flexibility by focusing on two case studies: green ammonia and steel production via electric arc furnaces. Electric arc furnace steel production is an important component of current demand response programs, whereas green ammonia and green fuels offer new paradigms for flexibility. We analyze the structure and functions of the technological innovation systems of load flexibility in those two industries via interviews with twenty-two stakeholders. Here, we conclude that in the United States these technological innovation systems are not well-functioning for industry in general or for steel, but do seem to be present for green ammonia. Additionally, explicit connections between scope two greenhouse gas emissions (those from purchased energy) and flexibility are lacking, and likewise industry stakeholders do not appear to make a connection between decarbonization and load flexibility, thus flexible demand is not viewed as a tool in industrial decarbonization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Finite element procedure for thermomechanical and structural integrity analysis of beam intercepting devices subjected to free electron laser

High-energy particles, including photons (x-ray, γ-ray, bremsstrahlung), electrons, and protons, possess the capability to penetrate materials and deposit energy within them. The degree of absorption depends on both the energy and type of particles, as well as the properties of the materials with which they interact. This energy deposition can manifest either at the material's surface or throughout its volume, potentially resulting in various failure modes. The primary aim of this paper is to establish a structured analysis methodology for evaluating the structural integrity of beam-intercepting devices when subjected to high-energy particles. Here, the paper also reviews some of the underlying physics, pertinent to the scope of the thermomechanical analysis, potential failure modes, and introduces verification and validation methodologies. Engineers and researchers can utilize the guidelines presented in this paper to effectively plan the development of beam intercepting devices, thereby ensuring their reliability and performance in the presence of high-energy particle exposure.

Finite element analysis↗

Modeling fluid phase equilibria of carbon dioxide-methanol binary system

Accurate fluid phase equilibria modeling of carbon dioxide-methanol binary system is essential for numerous industrial applications. Prior modeling studies were limited in scope in terms of temperature and pressure ranges. In this study, the phase equilibria behavior of the binary system is modeled with cubic equations-of-state (EoS) including Peng-Robinson (PR) and Soave-Redlich-Kwong with various mixing rules, Predictive Soave-Redlich-Kwong, Cubic Plus Association, and Perturbed-Chain Statistical Associating Fluid Theory. Among them, the classical PR EoS and its variants yield the overall best results in representing the phase behavior at temperature above 330 K. Furthermore, PR incorrectly predicts two liquid phases when the CO 2 mole fraction exceeds ~ 0.4 at temperature lower than 330 K. Raoult’s law with the classical nonrandom two-liquid excess Gibbs energy model is recommended for the low temperature conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

MOOSE-based Tritium Migration Analysis Program, Version 8 (TMAP8) for advanced open-source tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling

Tritium management is critical for the safety, sustainability, and economics of fusion energy systems, and advanced and reliable modeling tools help accelerate the development of tritium technologies. This paper presents the Tritium Migration Analysis Program, Version 8 (TMAP8), an open-source, MOOSE-based application developed to provide state-of-the-art tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling capabilities. TMAP8 aims to expand the capabilities of previous versions (i.e., TMAP4 and TMAP7) by leveraging modern computational techniques, ensuring high software quality assurance standards (key to building trust), and enabling multispecies, multiscale, and multiphysics simulations for integrated tritium transport modeling in complex geometries. This paper outlines TMAP8’s scope and rigorous development practices, emphasizing its transparency, accessibility, modularity, and reliability. We present the current suite of verification and validation cases based on those from TMAP4, demonstrating TMAP8’s accuracy and reliability against analytical solutions and experimental data. Additionally, the paper showcases TMAP8’s integrated fuel cycle modeling capabilities, highlighting its applicability at various scales and levels. The TMAP8 code and documentation are openly available, promoting collaborative development and widespread adoption within the fusion community. Future work will soon expand TMAP8’s verification and validation suite to include those from TMAP7 and other recent experimental studies for validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Automated generation of scientific workflow generators with WfChef

Scientific workflow applications have gained significant importance, and their automated and efficient execution on large-scale computing platforms has been the subject of extensive research and development. For these efforts to be successful, a solid experimental methodology is needed to evaluate workflow algorithms and systems. A foundation for this methodology is the availability of realistic workflow instances. Although public repositories provide workflow instances for a few scientific applications, these are limited in scope, and workflow instances are not available for all application scales of interest. To address this limitation, previous work has developed generators of synthetic workflow instances of arbitrary scales. Despite being popular, the implementation of these generators is a manual and labor-intensive process that requires expert application knowledge. As a result, these generators only target a handful of applications, even though there are hundreds of workflow applications in production. Here, we introduce WfChef , a fully automated framework for constructing a synthetic workflow generator for any scientific application. Based on an input set of workflow instances for a particular application, WfChef automatically produces a synthetic workflow generator. To measure the realism of the generated workflows, we define and evaluate several metrics. Using these metrics, we compare the realism of the workflows generated by WfChef generators to that of the workflows generated by the previously available, hand-crafted generators. We find that WfChef generators not only require zero development effort (because they are automatically produced), but also generate workflows that are more realistic than those generated by hand-crafted generators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Experimental Investigation of Drillstring Torsional Vibration Effect on Rate of Penetration with PDC Bits in Hard Rock

Polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bits have shown tremendous performance compared to roller cone bits and have gained attraction in deep geothermal drilling applications. While PDC bits can reach a higher rate of penetration compared to other bits, they are more prone to drilling vibrations. The scope of this paper is to quantify the effects of drillstring torsional vibrations on PDC bit performance using a laboratory testing facility. Here, the tests were performed with three drillstring configurations to evaluate the effect of drillstring vibrations. The results showed that rigid testing overestimates the bit rate of penetration by 35% due to torsional vibrations.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Two-photon ionization in solar opacity experiments

The discrepancies between theoretical and experimental opacities reported by experiments performed at the Sandia National Laboratory Z-pinch relevant to the solar interior remain unexplained. The suggestion that two-photon ionization could help resolve the discrepancies was recently examined and found not to account for the higher than predicted measured opacities. That test, however, was limited in scope and is now extended to include excited configurations and different charge states of several elements. Comparisons of one- and two-photon ionization cross-sections show that the latter fail to resolve the aforementioned discrepancies.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗