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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure from Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. An experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (ne) and electron temperature (Te) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (Ip), toroidal magnetic field (Bφ), neutral beam heating power (PNBI) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliable extrapolation of deep neural operators informed by physics or sparse observations

Deep neural operators can learn nonlinear mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces via deep neural networks. As promising surrogate solvers of partial differential equations (PDEs) for real-time prediction, deep neural operators such as deep operator networks (DeepONets) provide a new simulation paradigm in science and engineering. Pure data-driven neural operators and deep learning models, in general, are usually limited to interpolation scenarios, where new predictions utilize inputs within the support of the training set. However, in the inference stage of real-world applications, the input may lie outside the support, i.e., extrapolation is required, which may result to large errors and unavoidable failure of deep learning models. Here, we address this challenge of extrapolation for deep neural operators. First, we systematically investigate the extrapolation behavior of DeepONets by quantifying the extrapolation complexity, via the 2-Wasserstein distance between two function spaces and propose a new strategy of bias–variance trade-off for extrapolation with respect to model capacity. Subsequently, we develop a complete workflow, including extrapolation determination, and we propose five reliable learning methods that guarantee a safe prediction under extrapolation by requiring additional information—the governing PDEs of the system or sparse new observations. The proposed methods are based on either fine-tuning a pre-trained DeepONet or multifidelity learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for various types of parametric PDEs. Furthermore, our systematic comparisons provide practical guidelines for selecting a proper extrapolation method depending on the available information, desired accuracy, and required inference speed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure From Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. Here, an experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (n e ) and electron temperature (T e ) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (I p ), toroidal magnetic field (B Φ ), neutral beam heating power (P NBI ) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for GeV-scale dark matter from the Galactic Center with IceCube-DeepCore

Models describing dark matter as a novel particle often predict that its annihilation or decay into Standard Model particles could produce a detectable neutrino flux in regions of high dark matter density, such as the Galactic Center. In this work, we search for these neutrinos using ∼9 years of IceCube-DeepCore data with an event selection optimized for energies between 15 to 200 GeV. We considered several annihilation and decay channels and dark matter masses ranging from 15 GeV up to 8 TeV. No significant deviation from the background expectation from atmospheric neutrinos and muons was found. The most significant result was found for a dark matter mass of 201.6 GeV annihilating into a pair of bb¯ quarks assuming the Navarro–Frenk–White halo profile with a post-trial significance of 1.08σ. We present upper limits on the thermally averaged annihilation cross section of the order of 10-24 cm3 s-1, as well as lower limits on the dark matter decay lifetime up to 1026 s for dark matter masses between 5 GeV up to 8 TeV. These results strengthen the current IceCube limits on dark matter masses above 20 GeV and provide an order of magnitude improvement at lower masses. In addition, they represent the strongest constraints from any neutrino telescope on GeV-scale dark matter and are among the world-leading limits for several dark matter scenarios.

Abbasi, R↗
DOE OSTI2021

A vision of immuno-oncology: the Siena think tank of the Italian Network for Tumor Biotherapy (NIBIT) foundation

The yearly Think Tank Meeting of the Italian Network for Tumor Biotherapy (NIBIT) Foundation, brings together in Siena, Tuscany (Italy), experts in immuno-oncology to review the learnings from current immunotherapy treatments, and to propose new pre-clinical and clinical investigations in selected research areas. While immunotherapies in non-small cell lung cancer and melanoma led to practice changing therapies, the same therapies had only modest benefit for patients with other malignancies, such as mesothelioma and glioblastoma. One way to improve on current immunotherapies is to alter the sequence of each combination agent. Matching the immunotherapy to the host’s immune response may thus improve the activity of the current treatments. A second approach is to combine current immunotherapies with novel agents targeting complementary mechanisms. Identifying the appropriate novel agents may require different approaches than the traditional laboratory-based discovery work. For example, artificial intelligence-based research may help focusing the search for innovative and most promising combination partners. Novel immunotherapies are needed in cancer patients with resistance to or relapse after current immunotherapeutic drugs. Such new treatments may include targeted agents or monoclonal antibodies to overcome the immune-suppressive tumor microenvironment. The mode of combining the novel treatments, including vaccines, needs to be matched to the patient’s immune status for achieving the maximum benefit. In this scenario, specific attention should be also paid nowadays to the immune intersection between COVID-19 and cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing invader suppression to restore native species: Leveraging species traits to overcome collateral damage

Strategies to control ongoing biological invasions are often developed by modelling the invasive species' population and aiming to reduce its abundance. However, if the ultimate objective is to protect and restore native species, focussing solely on the invader may not be optimal because it does not account for (i) species interactions that can cause the invader's impacts to depend nonlinearly on its abundance, (ii) collateral damages to native species incurred due to nonspecific removal methods or (iii) native-invader trait differences. Here, to identify an invader suppression strategy that maximizes average native population size, we applied optimal control theory to a two-species model of a native species threatened by an invasive competitor. We examined trade-offs between iterative physical removals that selectively target invaders and intensifiable chemical control that is nonselective but has higher efficacy. We found that while iterative removals were capable of supporting large native populations when applied continuously, cost could be prohibitively high. In contrast, when favourable native-invader trait differences enabled native species to re-establish more quickly than invaders, intensifiable methods could achieve substantial restoration benefits at lower cost by focussing removal effort into periodic, high-efficacy events. In a metapopulation, removals that rotated among spatial patches were optimal when the native species had higher dispersal, whereas synchronous removals were preferred when native recovery was initiated locally and the invader could disperse. For a case study in Hawaiian streams, we compared how effective two alternative methods of removing invasive live-bearing fishes (poeciliids) might be at restoring the endemic freshwater goby Sicyopterus stimpsoni. We found that rotenone (a piscicidal chemical) offered superior benefits when the control budget was small and efficacy was high, but that electrofishing (use of electricity to manually collect target fish) was better with larger budgets and in many lower-efficacy scenarios. Synthesis and applications. Our findings demonstrate that, by accounting for species interactions and collateral damage, invasive species control strategies can be optimized in light of species traits. Choices about the timing, locations and types of removal events present opportunities to increase the efficiency with which invasive species suppression benefits native species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Updating the Building Science Advisor (BSA): A Tool to Assist in the Design of Durable Building Envelopes

Predicting the moisture durability of building envelope components remains challenging due to multiple influencing factors, including material selection, assembly positioning, local climate conditions, air tightness, interior environment, and construction quality. Building codes increasingly emphasize energy efficiency through enhanced insulation and tighter envelopes but offer limited guidance on moisture durability considerations. Consequently, builders face uncertainty, particularly as new materials and assemblies enter the market.The Building Science Advisor (BSA) is a free, web-based expert system developed to address these challenges by providing actionable insights into the moisture durability and energy efficiency of both new and retrofit wall designs. Recently updated, we are now providing version 3.0 of the tool. BSA features significant user interface improvements, enhancing navigation and user interaction through a refreshed, intuitive design. Additionally, the tool incorporates a newly developed database containing pre-simulated wall assembly cases, significantly reducing response times and improving the accuracy of moisture durability assessments. Furthermore, the updated BSA includes moisture content as a performance criterion, providing users with a more comprehensive understanding of moisture-related durability risks. These enhancements enable rapid, reliable assessments tailored to specific climate zones and local building practices. BSA continues to offer targeted guidance on wall retrofit scenarios and delivers access to an expanded library of location-specific building science resources.This paper describes these key updates, highlighting the enhanced features, expanded capabilities, and overall improvements to user experience and educational content. The paper includes a demonstration that illustrates how the revised BSA effectively supports practitioners in designing durable, energy-efficient building envelope assemblies.

Salonvaara, Mikael [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000318991554)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recurrent neural networks for short-term and long-term prediction of geothermal reservoirs

Accurate prediction of geothermal reservoir responses to alternative energy production scenarios is critical for optimizing the development of the underlying resources. While the conventional physics-based models offer a comprehensive prediction tool, data-driven models provide an efficient alternative to build fit-for-purpose predictive models by extracting and using the statistical patterns in the collected data to make predictions. The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a data-driven model that is commonly applied to predict time series sequences. This paper presents a variant of RNN that also utilizes the efficiency of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Specifically, a CNN–RNN architecture is developed that takes historical well controls as input (features) and their corresponding production response data as output (labels) to learn an input-output mapping that can predict the future well production responses/performance for any given future well control inputs. The model is paired with a labeling scheme to handle real field disturbances that create data gaps. In addition to the model structure, we introduce a thorough workflow for applying the model, which includes data pre-processing, feature selection, as well as different training strategies for short-term and long-term prediction. Finally, the performance and accuracy of the model are evaluated by applying it to multiple datasets, including a field reservoir model.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry model for humans: General approach and application to active marrow exposure from bone-seeking beta-particle emitters

The objective of this study is to develop a skeleton model for assessing active marrow dose from bone-seeking beta-emitting radionuclides. This article explains the modeling methodology which accounts for individual variability of the macro- and microstructure of bone tissue. Bone sites with active hematopoiesis are assessed by dividing them into small segments described by simple geometric shapes. Spongiosa, which fills the segments, is modeled as an isotropic three-dimensional grid (framework) of rod-like trabeculae that “run through” the bone marrow. Randomized multiple framework deformations are simulated by changing the positions of the grid nodes and the thickness of the rods. Model grid parameters are selected in accordance with the parameters of spongiosa microstructures taken from the published papers. Stochastic modeling of radiation transport in heterogeneous media simulating the distribution of bone tissue and marrow in each of the segments is performed by Monte Carlo methods. Model output for the human femur at different ages is provided as an example. The uncertainty of dosimetric characteristics associated with individual variability of bone structure was evaluated. An advantage of this methodology for the calculation of doses absorbed in the marrow from bone-seeking radionuclides is that it does not require additional studies of autopsy material. The biokinetic model results will be used in the future to calculate individual doses to members of a cohort exposed to 89,90 Sr from liquid radioactive waste discharged to the Techa River by the Mayak Production Association in 1949–1956. Further study of these unique cohorts provides an opportunity to gain more in-depth knowledge about the effects of chronic radiation on the hematopoietic system. In addition, the proposed model can be used to assess the doses to active marrow under any other scenarios of 90 Sr and 89 Sr intake to humans.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Convolutional Neural Network–Aided Temperature Field Reconstruction: An Innovative Method for Advanced Reactor Monitoring

In this study, the capabilities of a physics-informed convolutional neural network (CNN) for reconstructing the temperature field from a limited set of measurements taken at the boundaries of internal flows are demonstrated. Such an approach enables the development of less invasive monitoring methods for real-time plant diagnostics. As a test case, a Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) design was selected. This circulating fuel reactor has received interest from both scientific and industrial communities due to its intrinsic safety and sustainability. Molten salt flows in such reactors, however, can present highly localized temperature peaks that can induce significant thermal stresses onto the vessel walls. At these local maxima, the salt temperature may exceed a thousand kelvins, which makes a direct measurement challenging or even unfeasible. The proposed CNN algorithm allows one to detect indirectly such discontinuities through an accurate, albeit indirect, temperature measurement method during reactor operation. The datasets employed to train and test the machine learning models in the present work were generated with Nek5000, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code developed at Argonne National Laboratory. The CNN algorithm is trained with CFD results that span a set of MSFR operational power and flow ranges. Here, to demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm, predictions are made for test cases contained within the training range but for which the CFD data were not used when training. Results demonstrate that the proposed technique properly characterizes temperature peaks and distributions within the domain for a broad range of scenarios.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Swing of the Pendulum: The Chemodynamics of the Local Stellar Halo Indicate Contributions from Several Radial Merger Events

We find that the chemical abundances and dynamics of APOGEE and GALAH stars in the local stellar halo are inconsistent with a scenario in which the inner halo is primarily composed of debris from a single massive, ancient merger event, as has been proposed to explain the Gaia-Enceladus/Gaia Sausage (GSE) structure. The data contain trends of chemical composition with energy that are opposite to expectations for a single massive, ancient merger event, and multiple chemical evolution paths with distinct dynamics are present. We use a Bayesian Gaussian mixture model regression algorithm to characterize the local stellar halo, and find that the data are fit best by a model with four components. We interpret these components as the Virgo Radial Merger (VRM), Cronus, Nereus, and Thamnos; however, Nereus and Thamnos likely represent more than one accretion event because the chemical abundance distributions of their member stars contain many peaks. Although the Cronus and Thamnos components have different dynamics, their chemical abundances suggest they may be related. We show that the distinct low- and high-α halo populations from Nissen & Schuster are explained by VRM and Cronus stars, as well as some in situ stars. Because the local stellar halo contains multiple substructures, different popular methods of selecting GSE stars will actually select different mixtures of these substructures, which may change the apparent chemodynamic properties of the selected stars. We also find that the Splash stars in the Solar region are shifted to higher v $\phi$ and slightly lower [Fe/H] than previously reported.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

SDSS-IV MaNGA: global properties of kinematically misaligned galaxies

ABSTRACT We select 456 gas–star kinematically misaligned galaxies from the internal Product Launch-10 of MaNGA survey, including 74 star-forming (SF), 136 green-valley (GV), and 206 quiescent (QS) galaxies. We find that the distributions of difference between gas and star position angles for galaxies have three local peaks at ∼0°, 90°, and 180°. The fraction of misaligned galaxies peaks at log (M*/M⊙) ∼ 10.5 and declines to both low- and high-mass end. This fraction decreases monotonically with increasing star formation rate and specific star formation rate. We compare the global parameters including gas kinematic asymmetry Vasym, H i detection rate and mass fraction of molecular gas, effective radius Re, Sérsic index n as well as spin parameter $\lambda _{R_e}$ between misaligned galaxies and their control samples. We find that the misaligned galaxies have lower H i detection rate and molecular gas mass fraction, smaller size, higher Sérsic index, and lower spin parameters than their control samples. The SF and GV misaligned galaxies are more asymmetric in gas velocity fields than their controls. These pieces of observational evidence point to the gas accretion scenario followed by angular momentum redistribution from gas–gas collision, leading to gas inflow and central star formation for the SF and GV misaligned galaxies. We propose three possible origins of the misaligned QS galaxies: (1) external gas accretion, (2) merger, and (3) GV misaligned galaxies evolve into QS galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Short Term Predictability of Hydrologic Models with Deep Learning

Focal Area: Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Science Challenge: A major challenge exists in the lack of reliable predictive modeling of water-cycle extremes using macro-scale hydrologic models that are driven by atmospheric climate data. This causes a critical knowledge gap in understanding the magnitudes, probabilities, and severity of droughts, rainfall, and flooding. Improved understanding of these extreme events requires more accurate modeling at high spatial and temporal resolutions. This shortcoming is especially apparent when complex couplings between atmospheric quantities and engineered systems emerge, such as during extreme precipitation or drought events and at intersections of atmospheric-land-fluvial-ocean systems. Added complexity around representing operations of engineered infrastructure leads to a limited capability to analyze the temporal and spatial implications of compounding extreme events across inland and coastal regions. This results in profound challenges for water and power systems operators, agriculture production, and regional infrastructure planning. The science challenge can be summarized as How can we use AI/ML to improve short term predictability of extreme water-cycle events and associated risk, especially compounding events and extreme rainfall patterns that result in flooding, to inland and coastal communities under different climate scenarios?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) (V.3.1) (Technical Reference Manual)

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and experimentally validated first-order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet res, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety and to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM version 3.1. There have been several impactful updates since version 3.0. HyRAM 3.1 contains a correction to use the volume fraction for two-phase speed of sound calculations; this only affects cryogenic releases in which two-phase ow (vapor and liquid) is predicted in the orifice. Other changes include clarifications that inputs for tank pressure should be given in absolute pressure, not gauge pressure. Additionally, the interface now rejects invalid inputs to probability distributions, and the less accurate single-point radiative source model selection was removed from the interface.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Planet Occurrence Rate Correlated to Stellar Dynamical History: Evidence from Kepler and Gaia

The dynamical history of stars influences the formation and evolution of planets significantly. To explore the influence of dynamical history on the planet formation and evolution using observations, we assume stars that experienced significantly different dynamical histories tend to have different relative velocities. Utilizing the accurate Gaia–Kepler Stellar Properties Catalog, we select single main-sequence stars and divide these stars into three groups according to their relative velocities, i.e., high-V, medium-V, and low-V stars. After considering the known biases from Kepler data and adopting prior and posterior correction to minimize the influence of stellar properties on planet occurrence rate, we find that high-V stars have a lower occurrence rate of super-Earths and sub-Neptunes (1–4 R {sub ⊕}, P < 100 days) and a higher occurrence rate of sub-Earth (0.5–1 R {sub ⊕}, P < 30 days) than low-V stars. Additionally, high-V stars have a lower occurrence rate of hot Jupiter-sized planets (4–20 R {sub ⊕}, P < 10 days) and a slightly higher occurrence rate of warm or cold Jupiter-sized planets (4–20 R {sub ⊕}, 10 < P < 400 days). After investigating multiplicity and eccentricity, we find that high-V planet hosts prefer a higher fraction of multiplanet systems and lower average eccentricity, which are consistent with the eccentricity–multiplicity dichotomy of Kepler planetary systems. All of these statistical results favor the scenario that high-V stars with large relative velocity may experience fewer gravitational events, while low-V stars may be influenced by stellar clustering significantly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regional Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations for Southern California With EQSIM: Insights From the 2008 Chino Hills, 2024 Highland Park, and 2021 Carson Earthquakes

This study presents physics-based, 3D simulations using the EQSIM framework for several earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The primary objective was to assess the ability of deterministic physics-based ground motion simulations to reproduce the observed motions from historical events. The selected events included the mathematical equation M w 5.4 2008 Chino Hills, the mathematical equation M w 4.4 2024 Highland Park, and the mathematical equation M w 4.3 2021 Carson events. The simulated motions were evaluated by comparing the recorded and simulated seismograms, as well as the Fourier amplitude spectra, across multiple seismic stations. The SCEC 3D velocity model, CVM-S4.26.M01, was used to represent the regional geology, and ground motion simulations were carried out with a resolution of up to 5 Hz. The results indicate that the simulated motions captured the recorded motions up to approximately 4 Hz. While careful iterations regarding source parameters and corner frequencies were required, and, for the case of the Highland Park event, some of the near-source stations had relatively low accuracy, the present study established a positive step toward the utilization of physics-based simulations in practical applications. The computational efficiencies exhibited by EQSIM, especially on GPU clusters, further supported this assertion, as wall-clock times of simulations involving more than 10 billion grid points were as low as mathematical equation minutes. This permits ensemble simulations for a considered scenario event so that modeling uncertainties (e.g., source and geology) can be bracketed.

EQSIM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗